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Offseason Checklist: Boston Bruins

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With the offseason in full swing aside from the two teams in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Bruins.

It wasn’t a particularly eventful season for Boston who once again was one of the stronger teams in the Atlantic Division and while they wound up in a Wild Card spot, they were safely in a playoff spot early on.  However, they weren’t able to get past Carolina in the first round and since then, it has been a busy few weeks for the Bruins.  GM Don Sweeney will have a lot of work to do over the coming weeks, assuming a new contract gets worked out between now and then.

Hire A New Coach

It was a move that came as a surprise to some but Sweeney and team president Cam Neely opted to make a change behind the bench, dismissing Bruce Cassidy earlier this month.  This, despite the team going 245-108-46 under his watch during the regular season.  The playoff success hasn’t been there, however, with the team playing a game below .500 which likely played a significant role in the decision to make a change.  Cassidy wasn’t out of a job for long and now has a long-term deal to coach in Vegas.

This feels like a crossroads situation for the Bruins and, for the time being, at least, Boston isn’t being linked to many of the veterans that have been around the block with quite a few teams over the years.  Their current crop of known candidates consists primarily of first-time options (Seattle assistant Jay Leach, Toronto assistant Spencer Carbery, and Pittsburgh assistant Mike Vellucci) or one-time NHL bench bosses (David Quinn, St. Louis assistant Jim Montgomery, and Boston assistant Joe Sacco).

Turning to that type of coach could signal an openness to try a different path and perhaps even take a short-term step back as none of these options carry the type of win-now expectations that a ‘recycled’ veteran often does.  At any rate, Boston will want to have their new bench boss in place by the start of free agency on July 13th as the new coach will want to have some say in their personnel moves.

Re-Sign Or Replace Bergeron

Patrice Bergeron has been a fixture down the middle for Boston for the last 18 years.  He’s a five-time Selke Trophy winner and sits 18 points shy of the 1,000-point mark for his career.  The 36-year-old hasn’t shown signs of slowing down and is consistently one of their leading scorers.  But Bergeron is set to become an unrestricted free agent next month and there is some uncertainty about his future as a result.  This isn’t a case of him threatening to test the market and go elsewhere – he has already ruled that out – but rather a case of him deciding whether or not to hang up his skates and call it a career.

That would certainly be a devastating blow for the Bruins as they don’t have anyone in the system to replace him.  If Bergeron does retire, Boston will need to go hard after the notable middlemen in free agency highlighted by Nazem Kadri while Vincent Trocheck will also generate plenty of interest.  If Evgeni Malkin makes it to the open market, they could check in on him as well with a short-term offer.  The other route is to try to trade for an impact middleman but they don’t have their first-rounder this year, their next two second-rounders after next month’s draft, while their prospect pool isn’t the strongest.  That will make it difficult to trade for an impact center if it comes to it.

Adding one will certainly be a necessity if Bergeron retires as they don’t have anyone else that’s even an ideal second-line center let alone a top liner.  Erik Haula and Charlie Coyle have been hit or miss in key offensive roles in their careers and while they are quality secondary players, they aren’t ideal fits on the top trio.  With that in mind, if Bergeron returns, they could still use an impact center behind him.

Forecasting Bergeron’s contract if he chooses to come back is a difficult one since he is limiting his options to only the Bruins; it’s not implausible to think he’d sign a team-friendly contract to give them some extra cap flexibility.  As it stands, they have just over $2MM in cap space which is hardly enough to do much of anything with.  If Bergeron was to sign a one-year deal, he’d be eligible for incentives which would give them the ability to roll those onto the 2023-24 cap and buy themselves a bit of wiggle room for next season.

Determine Pastrnak’s Future

David Pastrnak has certainly provided plenty of value for a late first-round pick back in 2014.  Over his eight-year career, he is just shy of averaging a point per game and has been no lower than third in team scoring over the past six seasons.  Basically, he has been a consistent fixture on Boston’s top line while doing so at a team-friendly price as the 26-year-old has been under contract at $6.67MM for the last five years and is signed for the 2022-23 season at that price as well.

Obviously, Boston’s preference will be to sign Pastrnak to a contract extension as soon as he’s eligible once the new league year begins on July 13th.  It’s going to take a sizable financial commitment to do so and it’s fair to say his camp will be keeping a close tab on Johnny Gaudreau and Filip Forsberg this summer with Pastrnak’s price tag likely to fall somewhere between what those two get.  Something in the $9MM range is certainly doable.

However, there has been some speculation that Pastrnak may not be willing to sign an early extension which will certainly complicate things for Sweeney.  While Boston would undoubtedly command a significant return in a trade for him, doing so would also definitively close their window of contention; if Bergeron was to return, they could plausibly give that core one more chance so that has to be taken into consideration.  While it’s possible that they go into next season without a new deal in place, that does have its risks.  Accordingly, the Bruins will want to have a good sense of what Pastrnak’s intentions are before the start of free agency, so this will need to be near the top of Sweeney’s priority list.

Bring In Defensive Depth

On the surface, the Bruins have some decent defensive depth and will have Jakub Zboril healthy after he missed most of the season due to an injury.  With eight defensemen on one-way deals, it would seem like they wouldn’t need any more help.

However, Matt Grzelcyk is out until at least November and Charlie McAvoy is out until at least December due to offseason shoulder surgeries.  Mike Reilly also underwent offseason surgery but should be ready for training camp.

While Boston’s depth is decent, they’re going to need some extra bodies to get through the first couple of months of the season.  Jack Ahcan could be an option after getting into six games this year but they might want someone with more experience.  Accordingly, Sweeney may have his eyes on some veteran depth players for training camp PTOs or two-way contracts with an intention of having them play in Providence once everyone is healthy.  With the potential for an NHL roster spot or two to start the season, that could be appealing to those players as they consider their options in free agency next month.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: New Jersey Devils

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Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Devils.

Key Restricted Free Agents:

F Jesper Bratt – The rumors surrounding Bratt have already started swirling even during the Stanley Cup Finals, with conflicting reports on the forward coming from ESPN’s Kevin Weekes, who says the two sides haven’t begun talking and other teams are interested, and Ryan Novozinsky of the Star-Ledger, who confirmed with both Bratt’s agent, Joakim Persson and with the Devils, that the two sides had been talking. Whether Bratt stays in New Jersey, is traded, or even encounters an offer-sheet scenario, one thing is for sure: he’s going to get a hefty raise. A sixth-round pick in 2016, Bratt went from an unheralded prospect, to an NHLer, to a player who proved he could carry a line, to this year, where he proved he could carry an offense. The 23-year-old set career-highs with 26 goals, 47 assists, 73 points, in 76 games, those 73 points good enough to lead a Devils team that only had 49 games of Jack Hughes this season. Now at the conclusion of a two-year contract that carried an AAV of $2.75MM, Bratt could very likely see his salary double, if not more. New Jersey finds itself with an impeccable amount of salary cap space moving forward, so meeting Bratt’s asking price shouldn’t be an issue, but negotiating term and finding the proper overall value could hold the negotiation up.

F Miles Wood – The speedy winger missed the majority of this past season following a hip injury and surgery in the preseason. He would return to the lineup in late March, getting into three games before ultimately being shutdown for the remainder of the season. Wood has been a steady presence in the Devils lineup for the past few years, acting as the team’s primary agitator while also using his speed to create some offense too. With the Devils roster turnover as they try to put a close to their rebuild, it’s possible they could let the forward walk, but given their desire to add some “sandpaper” in to the lineup, simply keeping a familiar face in Wood who has the ability to play up and down the lineup would make sense without breaking the bank. New Jersey would also likely have control in the negotiations, considering Wood’s injury history and his status as a soon-to-be 27-year-old RFA, but it is worth noting that Wood is arbitration eligible this summer. Wood recently concluded a four-year, $11MM deal.

F Pavel Zacha – The first major piece of the Devils rebuild, it’s safe to say Zacha has not lived up to the expectations set for him when New Jersey drafted him sixth-overall in 2015. Zacha appeared to turn a corner in what could be described as a breakout 2020-21 season, where he totaled 35 points in 50 games, then a career-high. The forward would eclipse that career-high with 36 this year, but that was seen as a setback, considering he played in 70 games. On the heels of a three-year, $6.75MM contract and arbitration eligible, New Jersey could move on from Zacha, opting to give some of their prospects a chance at more regular ice-time, but given the flashes of talent he’s shown over the past two seasons along with a predictably reasonable price, it’s also quite likely the Devils will give Zacha another year in the Garden State.

F Jesper Boqvist, F Tyce Thompson, F Fabian Zetterlund

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D P.K. Subban – The former Norris Trophy winner is coming off an eight-year, $72MM contract which saw him traded not once, but twice, finally landing in New Jersey. Although not the same player he once was, Subban’s name still holds weight as an exciting player on the ice with big hits and shots, and off the ice as a charismatic and community-driven player, evidenced by his 2022 King Clancy Award. Subban’s next contract won’t see him come too close to his previous $9MM AAV, however the 33-year-old should be able to find himself a role well-suited for him at a reasonable rate. Even with his recent regression, the ball may be largely in Subban’s court with contenders close to the salary cap looking to give him a tailored role as a powerplay specialist at a lesser rate or a team with more payroll flexibility and more minutes to offer looking for an exciting name and a dynamic leader. A return to New Jersey isn’t out of the picture, but the Devils do have a bevy of young talent on defense they will try to work into regular roles at the NHL level in the near future.

F Chase De Leo, F Brian Flynn, F Frederik Gauthier, F Mason Geertsen, F A.J. Greer, F Jimmy Vesey, D Colton White, G Jon Gillies, G Andrew Hammond

Projected Cap Space:

At a time when many NHL teams are struggling to stay cap-compliant, the Devils are able to breathe easy, with just over $25.3MM in available cap space this offseason. That number actually feels a bit restrictive when you consider the $56.1MM the team is currently projected to have after the 2022-23 season. Perhaps the best part of all of this for New Jersey, is this factors in Dougie Hamilton’s $9MM cap hit, Hughes’ $8MM cap hit, and Nico Hischier’s $7.25MM cap hit.

The main financial commitment the Devils have to make this offseason is Bratt, who could approach the $7MM AAV threshold. After Bratt, the team could bring back Zacha, Wood, and Subban, and still have plenty of room with which to work. The organization will likely use that remaining cap to address their goaltending issues, the team currently expected to ice Mackenzie Blackwood and Jonathan Bernier next season, both of whom dealt with significant injury issues in 2021-22, and perhaps one of the several dynamic forwards available on this year’s trade and free agency markets. Even with their cap freedom, the Devils will need to take care, with a significant number of players hitting free agency next summer, including RFAs Yegor Sharangovich, Ty Smith, Jonas Siegenthaler and UFAs Tomas Tatar, Andreas Johnsson, Ryan Graves, and Damon Severson, amongst others.

Offseason Checklist: Washington Capitals

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With the offseason in full swing aside from the two teams in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Capitals.

It was a tough season on the injury front for Washington with three of their top forwards missing at least 35 games.  Despite that, the Capitals remained a top-ten offensive team and were able to get to the playoffs although they were ousted in the first round by Florida.  With an aging core, GM Brian MacLellan will have some work to do to keep this group in the playoff hunt as a rebuild isn’t likely in the cards.

Add Short-Term Offensive Talent

The recent news that Nicklas Backstrom has undergone hip resurfacing surgery should open up some LTIR flexibility for Washington.  While no firm timetable for a return has been announced, of the handful of players who have had the surgery, the quickest recovery was after an entire season.  Accordingly, MacLellan should be comfortable using a good chunk of his $9.2MM AAV on a replacement.  But as this hasn’t been termed a career-ending procedure (though it put an end to Ryan Kesler’s career), the Capitals will be limited in terms of what they can do to replace him.

Since the potential exists for Backstrom to play down the road, Washington should be limiting themselves to looking to either acquire a player on an expiring contract or signing a free agent to a one-year deal.  In doing so, they’ll be able to free up the cap space to integrate Backstrom back for 2023-24 without any issue and if he can’t return, then they’ll have the flexibility to spend next summer.

Of course, Backstrom’s injury leaves a big hole down the middle and let’s face it, there aren’t a lot of impact centers available on one-year contracts so the Capitals may need to get creative here.  Lars Eller can play in the top six in a pinch but isn’t an ideal fit there for a long stretch, nor is Nic Dowd.  T.J. Oshie has shifted down the middle to cover for short-term injuries but asking him to do that for a full season would be tough and it’s not as if he’s consistently healthy either.  Spending at least part of Backstrom’s money on help at center will be a must for MacLellan.

You might have noticed I haven’t mentioned Tom Wilson here who will be on LTIR as well to start the year.  However, since he’s due back a couple of months into the season, the Capitals can’t really do much of anything to replace him outside of recalls although they’ll be able to carry a max-sized roster at least.

Pick A Goalie; Deal A Goalie

When Seattle took Vitek Vanecek in expansion, it looked as if Washington’s decision of who to run with between the pipes had been finalized and that they’d run with Ilya Samsonov moving forward.  But a week later, the Capitals reacquired Vanecek and the questions returned.  After running that tandem for all of this past season, the questions still remain.

Vanecek’s campaign was practically identical to his rookie year (2.67 GAA, .908 SV% compared to 2.69 and .908, respectively) but his track record is still limited to just 79 games in the regular season.  While those numbers are decent, they’re also not starter-level either.  Meanwhile, Samsonov saw his numbers get worse for the second straight year (3.02 GAA, .896 SV%, both worse than the league average).  That said, Samsonov was a highly-touted first-round pick who has been perceived to have the higher upside of the two even though the results haven’t been there so far.

While it’s possible that the Capitals could opt to bring both goalies back (both are restricted free agents with arbitration rights as well), it feels like the time is right for a chance.  Washington was believed to be interested in Marc-Andre Fleury at the trade deadline although making a deal and remaining cap-compliant was next to impossible.  But if they were looking for a veteran then and have since suffered another quick playoff exit, it stands to reason they’ll be looking for a veteran upgrade again.  If that’s the case, one of Samsonov or Vanecek has to go.

The trade market for goalies rarely yields a significant return although the fact that both are young (Vanecek is 26, Samsonov 25) will help.  This is something that they may want to do sooner than later as well.  While it’s possible they could wait to see how free agency shakes out to see if there’s a vulnerable team or two, the risk is that if everyone finds alternative options between the pipes, the Capitals could be stuck carrying three goalies into training camp.  If they want to avoid that, the choice of who to keep and who to trade will need to be made within the next few weeks before the start of free agency on July 13th.

Round Out The Back End

With Justin Schultz, Matt Irwin, and Michal Kempny all set to hit free agency this summer, there are a couple of slots to fill at the back of Washington’s back end.  The emergence of Martin Fehervary helps in that they don’t necessarily have to look for someone that can fill a spot in the top four although it would be a nice luxury if they opt to reallocate some of Backstrom’s money to the blueline.

Assuming none of those three free agents return, there will be a couple of different roles to try to fill.  Schultz took a regular turn on the second power play unit and the Capitals don’t have a lot of players that can run the point aside from their top two.  Accordingly, one of their two targets to fill out their defense corps should be someone that can play in that role.  The other role is Irwin’s, one that he did a good job with.  While he didn’t log a lot of special teams time, he was able to play on both sides and that type of flexibility is something that head coach Peter Laviolette certainly covets.

It wouldn’t hurt if at least one of those spots was filled by someone on a multi-year deal either.  The list of Washington’s NHL rearguards that are signed beyond 2022-23 starts and ends with John Carlson.  It wouldn’t be ideal to be in a situation where the Capitals are trying to rebuild half of their back end or more a year from now so if they can get a bit of stability with their depth options, it would be helpful.

Orlov Extension Talks

To that end, extension talks for Dmitry Orlov should be high on MacLellan’s priority list.  The soon-to-be 31-year-old is actually coming off a career season offensively with 12 goals and 35 points but overall, has been quite consistent with his offensive production, averaging between 0.35 and 0.46 points per game over the last seven seasons.  It’s pretty safe to pencil him near that rate for a little while longer yet.  Orlov has seen his ice time dip a little bit the last couple of seasons but he was just under 21 minutes in 2021-22.  Again, it’s pretty safe to pencil him in around the 20-minute mark for a few more years.

That helps set a ballpark price for what an extension should look like.  Orlov is a number two defender who, in an ideal world, would drop down a peg over the next few seasons as he gets older.  For that type of role at his age, Orlov should be in line for a raise on his current $5.1MM AAV but not a substantial one.  While the total AAV will likely depend on the length of the contract (do they work out, say, a six-year deal with the salary in the final season being a little lower to bring the cap hit down?), it should check in somewhere near the $6MM mark.  If Washington is comfortable around that range, they should be trying to work something out soon after he’s eligible for an extension in mid-July and ensure that a second key cog of their back end will be around for a while.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: New York Islanders

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Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Islanders.

Key Restricted Free Agents:

F Kieffer Bellows –  The 2016 first-round pick has had a slow start to his career, putting up just 25 points in 67 career games thus far, spread over three seasons. After his ELC expired last offseason, Bellows signed a one-year, $750K contract to stay with the Islanders for 2021-22, where he had a modest breakout with the club, recording a career-high six goals and 13 assists in 45 games. That performance was enough to turn some heads and prove Bellows may be able to make a career for himself in the NHL after all, but it likely won’t earn him much of a raise. Considering the Islanders issues with scoring, an aging roster, and limited cap space, Bellows could be in a strong position to see more regular ice-time, both in games played and time-on-ice, as a young and affordable piece who was drafted for, and has shown flashes of, his ability to put the puck in the back of the net.

D Noah Dobson – A 13 game roadtrip to start the season, a major COVID-19 outbreak in the locker room, and a several key injuries contributed to the Islanders missing the playoffs for the first time since 2017-18. Frustrating as the season may have been, one major bright-spot was the emergence of Dobson, who’s 13 goals and 38 assists for 51 points in 80 games all represented career-highs. Those 51 points were also good enough to place Dobson third on the team in scoring, not far behind Mathew Barzal and Brock Nelson’s 59 points, and his 21:28 of average time-on-ice, also a career-high, was enough to lead the team. Having established himself as one of the best and most important players for the team, and at the expiration of his ELC, Dobson is in line for a significant raise. Both team and player could have varying ideas of how to approach his next contract, perhaps opting for a long-term deal that would still bring him to UFA status at a relatively young age (an eight-year contract depositing him on the market at age 30), or perhaps a shorter bridge-deal that would keep Dobson a RFA or expiring right at the start of his UFA eligibility. Looking at the rest of the team, the two highest salaries come from Barzal and Anders Lee, each earning $7MM, and the team’s two top defensemen, Ryan Pulock and Adam Pelech, earn $6.15MM and $5.75MM respectively. However, all but Barzal signed as or as soon-to-be UFAs. One interesting comparable could be Quinn Hughes of the Vancouver Canucks, who signed a four year, $47.1MM contract at the expiration of his ELC, though he was coming off two consecutive years of production similar to Dobson’s single platform-year at this rate of production.

Other RFAs: F Michael Dal Colle, F Arnaud Durandeau, F Otto Koivula, D Robin Salo, D Parker Wotherspoon

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

D Sebastian Aho – The other half of the NHL’s Sebastian Aho’s, the Islanders’ Aho is set to hit UFA after just his third NHL season as a Group 6 UFA. Aho brings with him 18 points in 61 games of NHL experience, with 12 of those points coming in 36 games this season, both career-highs. Interestingly, the 2017 fifth-round pick made his debut and played 22 games for the Islanders in 2017-18, but was limited to just one game of NHL action since before this season under the Lou Lamoriello front office. The situation would seem ripe for Aho to test free agency on his own to find an offering of regular ice-time with another organization, but the Islanders have just one left-handed defenseman under contract for next season (Pelech), a position that was a sore-spot for the team this year. Considering Aho’s strong season, which saw regular work down the stretch while the team was trying to make a push for the playoffs, Aho may have an opportunity for a regular job on Long Island.

D Zdeno Chara and D Andy Greene – The two veteran defensemen were brought in to bolster the team’s depth on the left side defensively, but both would end up struggling to a degree, showing their age. Chara, 45, and Greene, who will be 40 in October, may be destined for retirement at this point in their careers but both, being well-respected and long-tenured NHLers, should have no problem staying in the league in off-ice roles if they want to. Greene, an undrafted free-agent signed by Lou Lamoriello with the New Jersey Devils, then acquired by Lamoriello from New Jersey in February 2020, may have a chance to stick around as the team looks for affordable pieces to round out its roster, especially considering Lamoriello’s well-known loyalty to his players.

Other UFAs: F Andy Andreoff, F Austin Czarnik, D Thomas Hickey, D Grant Hutton, D Paul Ladue, D Mitch Vande Sompel, G Kenneth Appleby, G Cory Schneider

Projected Cap Space:

According to CapFriendly, the Islanders head into the offseason with just a tick over $12MM in cap space. On one hand, $12MM is plenty to work with when compared to other teams’ sticky situations and the team only has one pending free agent, Dobson, likely to eat up a significant amount of that. On the other hand, after the tough season on Long Island, they will certainly need to make improvements throughout the roster, with their cap space perhaps not being that amenable. Additionally, Lamoriello made several deals to help alleviate any cap issues the team had or was going to have, including trades of Devon Toews, Nick Leddy, and Andrew Ladd. These trades cost the team some depth, though bringing in three second-round picks altogether, but who may not be ready to make an impact just yet. If the veteran Islanders executive can find a way to move out an expensive veteran contract, such as that of Josh Bailey or the considerably younger Anthony Beauvillier, he could create some additional cap flexibility to make the necessary changes the team has to make.

Free Agent Focus: New York Rangers

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Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Rangers.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Kaapo Kakko — The 2019 second-overall pick’s adjustment to the NHL has been a bit slower than expected, and it’s been a struggle for him to translate the scoring talent he showed in Finland to the NHL level. In 157 career games, Kakko has 26 goals and 58 points, including 18 points in his 2021-22 campaign, a season where he missed a solid chunk of the Rangers’ games due to injury. Kakko enters his first free agency on mixed ground. The points aren’t there for him to get a lucrative, long-term deal, but he showed flashes of the upside that got him drafted so high in the first place during the Rangers’ run to the Eastern Conference Final, fitting in on a “kid line” with fellow first-rounders Filip Chytil and Alexis Lafreniere, a line that powered the Rangers past the Carolina Hurricanes before being ultimately broken up against Tampa Bay. Kakko’s puck protection skills and abilities along the boards are strong, and it’s definitely possible that after three years in the NHL he’s just on the cusp of finally producing offense. And with Valeri Nichushkin helping the Colorado Avalanche potentially lift the Stanley Cup in the coming days, he could serve as a cautionary tale in giving up too early on talented, toolsy top picks who don’t have the points to show for their strong play early in their careers. But on the other hand, it’s also very possible that Kakko’s tools never result in him producing significant offense. The Rangers need all the cap space they can get, so expect a one or two-year bridge deal at this point.

G Alexandar Georgiev — Before the arrival of Igor Shesterkin, there was once a time when Georgiev had a chance to be the heir to Henrik Lundqvist on Broadway. Georgiev’s first taste of NHL action went well, with a .918 save percentage in ten games, and his first two full-time seasons were similarly impressive, as Georgiev posted a .914 in 2018-19 and a .910 in 2019-20. 2020-21 was a bit shakier, and as Georgiev ceded more and more starts to Shesterkin his play began to suffer. He finished that year with a .905 in 19 games. This year, Georgiev had his worst season in New York, with a .898 save percentage in 33 games. He simply did not play to the level he’d shown an ability to play at in the past, and the strength of Shesterkin, the Vezina Trophy favorite, emphasized Geoorgiev’s failings even more. Georgiev is due a qualifying offer of $2.65MM, per CapFriendly, so it’s not a guarantee that Georgiev is even tendered an offer for the Rangers to retain his rights. If Georgiev is going to have a cap hit around that number next year, it probably won’t be in New York.

Other RFA’s: F Julien Gauthier, F Jacob Elmer, F Tim Gettinger, F Justin Richards, F Ty Ronning, F Austin Rueschhoff, D Libor Hajek, G Tyler Wall

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Ryan Strome — We previously covered the free agent situation of Ryan Strome in-depth, and it’s certainly a difficult situation for the Rangers to navigate. On one hand, Strome has fit extremely well in New York and produced like a strong top-six center. Over the past three seasons, Strome has 162 points in 200 games, which is a 66-point 82-game pace. Centers who can score in the 60-70 point range don’t hit free agency often, and when they do, they get paid. But Strome’s numbers do come with one slight asterisk: he’s been the linemate of Artemi Panarin, a superstar, play-driving offensive force. Panarin being mentioned isn’t meant in any way to downplay Strome’s skill — it’s not like you can just put any center on Panarin’s line and have him produce like Strome — but instead is meant to raise the question that Strome will need to answer this summer. Is he the play-driving, line-anchoring top-six center he’s produced like? Or is he more of a passenger, capable of piling up points when he gets the chance to ride shotgun next to elite scorers? The Rangers will be the first team that will need to ponder those questions as they consider whether to commit to Strome long-term.

F Andrew Copp — Copp was acquired from the Winnipeg Jets at the trade deadline, and he’s been everything the Rangers could have hoped for and more. Copp had 18 points in 16 games after the trade, and added on 14 points in 20 playoff games, giving him a grand total of 32 points in 36 games in New York. Before 2020-21, Copp was widely viewed as a defense-first, versatile forward who probably wouldn’t end up being an offensive difference-maker. But after putting up 39 points in 55 games during the pandemic-shortened 2020-21 season, his outlook has changed quite a bit. Now, he looks more like a true two-way force who can fit in a top-six. Given how well he played as a Ranger after the trade, it seems like staying in New York could be his best choice. But the Rangers will have a hard time finding enough cap space to keep both Strome and Copp, so they may end up having to choose one.

F Tyler Motte — Another member of the Rangers’ platoon of trade-deadline additions, Motte has endeared himself to both Rangers fans and fans of the team he became an NHL regular with, the Vancouver Canucks. It’s Motte’s hard-nosed, ever-active style of play that makes him so widely appreciated by both fans and coaches alike, but in the absence of offensive production, how much is that style of play worth? Motte had only 15 points in 58 games this season and only two in the Rangers’ playoff run. Offensive production isn’t what he’s in the NHL to provide, but it will put a ceiling on his earning power this summer. On the open market, it’s definitely possible that Motte could earn a deal with a decent term at around $1.5-2.5MM. Motte’s Rangers teammate, Barclay Goodrow, earned a long-term deal carrying a $3.6MM AAV coming off of a season where he had only five more points than Motte did this year, but Goodrow also had two Stanley Cup rings on his resume, an asset GM’s value highly and something Motte currently lacks. Wherever he ends up this summer, New York or elsewhere, look for Motte to quickly become a favorite of his coach and fanbase.

Other UFA’s: F Greg McKegg, F Kevin Rooney, F Frank Vatrano, D Justin Braun, F Anthony Greco, F Maxim Letunov, F Nick Merkley, G Adam Huska, G Keith Kinkaid

Projected Cap Space

This is where things get tricky for GM Chris Drury. The Rangers, on paper, are in decent shape. They have just under $12MM in projected cap space going into next season, a number that could rise even higher if they find a way out from under frequent healthy scratch Patrik Nemeth’s $2.5MM AAV deal. But just because New York has $12MM now doesn’t mean they can be just as active as they’ve been in the past. Next offseason, the Rangers will have both K’Andre Miller and Lafreniere hitting restricted free agency. The Rangers undoubtedly want to keep both in New York long-term, but spending significant money this offseason could make long-term deals for those two players nearly impossible. It could even be three players the Rangers want to lock up long-term if Chytil spends 2022-23 playing as he did against the Hurricanes. So while the Rangers definitely want to use this offseason to maximize their odds of overcoming the on-ice challenges they’ll face next spring, they can’t lose sight of the off-ice challenges they’ll face next summer. Those two (or three) looming deals could impact every choice the Rangers make in the next few months.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

PHR Mailbag: Klefbom, LTIR, Blashill, Top Pick, Miller, Sabres, Predictions, Murray, Cup Final

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the creative usage of LTIR in recent years, Buffalo’s goaltending situation, J.T. Miller’s future with Vancouver, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here and wasn’t about Detroit, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.  If your question was about the Red Wings, watch for that to be covered in a bonus mailbag between now and then.

WilfPaiement: Is there any updated information on Oscar Klefbom? Playing next season? Retiring?

It’s the status quo for the Edmonton blueliner.  Klefbom’s shoulder injury still lingers and at this point, there’s no expectation that he’ll be able to resume his NHL career.  He certainly won’t be retiring, however.  He’s still owed $5.169MM in salary for next season and there’s no way he’s leaving that on the table to do Edmonton a favor.  Since his deal is backloaded as well, he’s not as likely of a candidate to be moved to a team looking to do some LTIR shenanigans.  Speaking of which…

rickg: Are there any opinions on how teams are using the LTIR for the purpose of adding to the roster to better the team, instead of what the LTIR was intended to be used for as a way to replace an injured player on your roster if your team was maxed out and LTIR allowed the team to go past the high-end cap threshold?

There are few things as confusing in hockey as the inner machinations of LTIR.  It might even give ‘What constitutes goalie interference?’ a run for its money at times.  I’d say by now that most understand the basics which was what the rule was intended to be but these trades that now see injured players going for value that involve transaction sequencing and precise timing of roster moves takes it to a whole different level, one that is much more confusing and harder to explain.

But even if they’re harder to explain, are stranger on the surface, and can even flat out baffle people, I have no problem with these types of moves.  The NHL is a hard cap system that doesn’t have a lot of potential for wiggle room.  If teams can find a loophole to exploit, go for it.  Use it until enough general managers complain to make it a sticking point in the next CBA discussions.  Right now, there isn’t enough of an appetite for trying to close that Pandora’s box.

Does the recent Shea Weber for Evgenii Dadonov trade go against the spirit of the LTIR rule?  Of course it does.  But if Montreal and Vegas are both happy at the end of the day and the trade fulfills an objective they wanted to achieve, then good on them for finding a way to make something work.  At least it made for a good discussion point for a bit of time during a quiet part of the NHL calendar when it comes to off-ice movement.

I’ll mention that this question came in before that trade happened.  Perfect timing on your part.

Johnny Z: So, does Blashill have the inside track on the Florida coaching job?

The former Detroit bench boss was linked to the Panthers earlier this month but at this point, it’s hard to see him being the contender for a position that may or may not be available.  With reports coming out on Friday that Florida is conducting a rather thorough coaching search and has interviewed several prominent veterans, it’s hard to see Jeff Blashill coming up as the winner in that particular battle should GM Bill Zito opt to go in a different direction from interim head coach Andrew Brunette.

I think Blashill could be a candidate to be an assistant coach with Florida, however, particularly if Brunette retains the job.  There are openings to be filled and if you have effectively a first-time head coach running the bench, it wouldn’t hurt to have someone with recent NHL head coaching experience on the staff.  Blashill, who doesn’t seem to be a candidate for any of the other openings at the moment, would be a decent fit in that type of role and unlike the prominent veterans, would likely be willing to accept an associate coach position as well.  He could wind up in Florida, just not as their next head coach.

ckw: Do you think Shane Wright is going to go first overall and if not, who do you see the Habs taking?

I know there’s a growing sense that Juraj Slafkovsky could ultimately be the number one pick and I can understand the logic behind it.  Wright’s season wasn’t up to the admittedly high level of expectations and while Slafkovsky was quiet himself for long stretches, his performance at the Olympics and the Worlds turned some heads.  If he can find a way to play at that level consistently, he’s worthy of being the top pick.  But that’s a big if.  Even so, this doesn’t feel like the type of typical smokescreen you might see at this time of year from the team holding the top pick.

That said, Wright is my expected choice for the Canadiens.  Montreal has been chasing center help for basically the better part of two decades now.  Even when their NHL depth was good, they didn’t have that true number one.  I don’t think Wright is a true number one either but a combination of him and Nick Suzuki for seven years as their top two options is a lot better than what they’ve trotted out in recent years.  I have a hard time thinking they can pass on that, especially knowing that their salary cap situation isn’t exactly ideal; it’s not as if they can go out and sign an impact free agent middleman any time soon.

pawtucket: J.T. Miller gets traded. If yes, to what sort of team and for what sort of package.  If no, which of Horvat or Boeser goes and to what sort of team and for what sort of package.

I’m going to say yes, Miller does get traded.  Is Vancouver really prepared to pay upwards of $8MM per season on a contract that starts at the age of 30 for a player who has only twice reached the 60-point mark?  I know he has been much more productive lately but I still see giant red flags when I try to picture that type of contract.  Knowing extending Miller would eventually cost Bo Horvat (they can’t afford Elias Pettersson, Miller, and Horvat down the middle), I’d rather take the short-term hit in talent to add some important future assets and gain some much-needed cap flexibility.

As for where, that’s a tough one but I’ll say Los Angeles.  Anze Kopitar has two years left on his deal and Miller’s extension wouldn’t start until 2023-24 so there’s only one year of overlap.  Kopitar will be in his age-37 season when he signs his next contract so he’ll likely be starting to decline at that time; a new top pivot will be needed.  Miller would be a good insurance policy if the likes of Quinton Byfield and Alex Turcotte don’t pan out as intended (and if they do, affordable short-term surplus center depth is never a bad thing).  The Kings have the cap space to bring him in now and have some longer-term flexibility.  They also have quality prospects that would make it easier to part with the package it would take.

I’d peg that package as a three-piece deal.  The first-round pick (19th overall) next month would be one of them.  I’d put Rasmus Kupari in their as a second one, a 22-year-old former first-rounder that could be Vancouver’s cost-controlled 3C of the future; if he pans out, a Pettersson-Horvat (assuming he’d be extended after moving Miller)-Kupari trio would put them in good shape.  The other is a prospect and looking at what the Canucks have in their prospect pool, a right-shot defender would be a target.  The Kings have a few of those but the one that stands out is Brock Faber, a 2020 second-rounder that’s probably a year away from being pro-ready and plays the type of complementary game that would work well alongside someone like Quinn Hughes.

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Offseason Checklist: Minnesota Wild

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With the offseason in full swing aside from the two teams in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Wild.

This past season was an interesting one for the Wild.  They were one of the top scoring teams in the NHL and knowing the cap adventure that lies ahead (more on that shortly), GM Bill Guerin made some moves to add at the deadline in the hopes of a long playoff run.  Instead, despite finishing fifth overall in points during the regular season, they were ousted in the opening round by St. Louis.  Now, Guerin has some work to do to be able to keep as much of this core together as possible which is the focal point of Minnesota’s checklist.

Free Up Cap Space

It’s not as if Guerin hasn’t known this was going to be at the top of his list at some point.  It would have been the case had they not bought out Ryan Suter and Zach Parise and it still is the case with them being bought out as their dead cap charge went up by $4MM for each player.  That’s hard for any team to overcome.  And that’s not the total charge, that’s just the increase; the total is over $12MM for next season.  (If you want to look ahead a year, it goes up by another $1MM each in the 2023 offseason as well; this isn’t just a one-time situation to navigate through.)

At the moment, Minnesota has a little over $7MM in cap space with which to sign multiple forwards, a defenseman, and a second goaltender.  That, on its own, might not sound so bad but once you factor in who some of those players are – that list comprises the rest of their checklist – it’s considerably worse.

It’s not as if there are some contracts that are well above market value on their books but $12MM in dead space is going to be very difficult to overcome.  A small move or two to free up some extra wiggle room could be the difference in whether they can keep a key player or not.  There’s a lot at stake as a result.

Sign Or Trade Fiala

If you read the above and immediately thought of Kevin Fiala, you certainly won’t be alone.  The winger has been in trade speculation going back to last summer with this exact situation in mind.

If the two sides would have been able to work out a long-term agreement last summer, that might have been enough to put an end to that speculation.  Instead, Minnesota took the rare step of pre-emptively filing for arbitration before eventually settling on a $5.1MM salary for this past season.  Fiala then went and had a career year, picking up 33 goals and 52 assists in 82 games, all career highs.  Overall, the Wild received really good value on that deal but things are only going to go downhill from here for them.

Fiala is now a year away from unrestricted free agency and while the Wild can’t take him to arbitration again, he can take them to a hearing, get a nice raise from the arbitrator, and hit the open market in 2023 in the prime of his career.  A long-term deal could approach the $7.5MM to $8MM range and while Guerin probably wouldn’t mind giving that to him, they’d have to part with another core player to make that happen.  At this point, it seems likely that the 25-year-old will be traded.

While Fiala doesn’t have a no-trade clause, he holds the hammer on this front as well.  Fiala on a long-term contract has a lot more value than Fiala on a one-year deal.  Teams can’t put conditional draft picks in a trade that are dependent on whether or not he signs either.  Guerin will need to work hard to get maximum value for Fiala (likely in the form of futures or young roster players) but will also have to work hard with the pending RFA to find a suitor that he’s willing to forego the open market to sign with.  There’s a lot of work to do on this front in a short period of time.

Sign Second Goalie

Guerin surprised some with the acquisition of Marc-Andre Fleury at the trade deadline in an effort to give them a second proven veteran goaltender for the playoffs.  He was a little better down the stretch than he was with Chicago and that got him most of the playing time against the Blues.  While it may have seemed like this was just a short-term pickup, Guerin has expressed a firm desire to keep Fleury around to split time with Cam Talbot next season.

While it’s certainly fair to say that Fleury will get considerably less than the $7MM AAV he had on his expiring contract, he still should have enough interest out there to get half of that price tag.  Even if Fiala moves for futures, Minnesota can’t afford Fleury at that price tag.  They have two options on that front.  One is to try to move a current roster player for someone making less and use those savings to afford Fleury’s new deal.  The other is to work out an incentive-laden deal that gives them the ability to roll over the bonuses onto the 2023-24 cap.  Of course, with the dead money going up, that’s only pushing the problem over, not fixing it.

If they’re unable to keep Fleury, Guerin will need to be aggressive on the open market for a replacement with Kaapo Kahkonen now in San Jose.  Talbot will turn 35 next month and while he’s still a capable NHL goaltender, he’s not someone that can handle 60-plus games next season.  They’ll need a fairly strong second option, one that will be able to play 30 or more games.  That will put them looking in the high-$2MM/low-$3MM range even if it isn’t Fleury.  Jesper Wallstedt is their goalie of the future but he’s a few years away from being NHL-ready.  They need to add another NHL option in the meantime over the coming weeks.

Re-Sign Middleton

The player Minnesota received in the Kahkonen trade, defenseman Jacob Middleton, is also in need of a new contract.  He’s a restricted free agent with salary arbitration rights and is a year away from UFA eligibility.  This is one of those situations where finding fair value is going to be a challenge.

Middleton has just 80 career NHL games under his belt, 66 of which came this season.  Heading into the year, he was a candidate for a deal around the $1MM range but after a strong showing with both the Sharks and Wild, he’s going to get more.  If it gets to an arbitrator, the award could be tricky to pin down because of the limited experience but that doesn’t give Guerin the hammer by any stretch since a low-ball offer could force Middleton to file for arbitration and see what his value is on the open market next summer.

A long-term contract doesn’t seem likely at this point given his limited track record but a deal that buys out a couple of UFA years could be doable.  The AAV would likely jump over $2MM in that situation but it would be a justifiable price.  Of course, the longer the contract, the harder it will be to fit the other pieces of the puzzle in from a salary cap perspective.  Middleton’s case isn’t as prominent as some of the others but it has to stay in the back of Guerin’s mind as he works his way through Fiala’s eventual trade and finding a second netminder.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Ottawa Senators

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Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Senators.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Joshua Norris — While Senators GM Pierre Dorion previously called the day he traded Mark Stone to the Vegas Golden Knights “one of the proudest” days he’d had in his career as a GM, it’s his trade of Erik Karlsson that was the real stroke of brilliance. Not only did the Senators receive the draft pick used to select budding star Tim Stutzle in exchange for their captain, they also received center Joshua Norris, who was then in his freshman season at the University of Michigan. Norris was drafted 19th overall in 2017 and has blossomed into a lethal goal scorer. With Brady Tkachuk at his side, Norris scored 35 goals this year and finished 2021-22 with 55 points in 66 games, a 68-point pace. Norris also showed some improvements in his defensive game. While Norris’ 20.3% shooting percentage is high enough to raise questions about the sustainability of his goal scoring, Norris did have a 17.7% shooting percentage in 2020-21 and some high-end goal scorers are simply capable of sustaining inflated shooting percentages thanks to their elite shooting talent. Norris could be in that category, and the Senators shouldn’t drag their feet in locking Norris down on a long-term deal. Montreal Canadiens center Nick Suzuki’s eight-year, $7.875MM extension could be a solid number for a maximum-term deal, and it would come under Tkachuk’s $8.2MM cap hit, meaning Norris wouldn’t be making more than the captain. The Senators may want something a bit cheaper, maybe along the lines of the five-year, $6.1MM AAV extension Dylan Larkin signed, but with comparable young centers like Suzuki and the New Jersey Devils’ Nico Hischier signing long-term deals north of $7MM AAV, expect any long-term deal for Norris to come in at around that number as well.

F Mathieu Joseph — Joseph is an extremely interesting case heading into this offseason. Earlier in the season, his offseason case would have looked pretty simple. As an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent, Joseph would have had the option to take whatever the arbitrator awarded him and inch closer to a trip to unrestricted free agency. But now, there could be more appetite to get an extension done from the team side of the equation, thanks to a mid-season trade to the Senators. Joseph arrived in Ottawa in exchange for Nick Paul and found immediate success there. He fit naturally next to Norris and Tkachuk, and in the first week of April Joseph had 10 points in just four games. It was that four-game stretch that served as an endorsement of Dorion’s belief in Joseph, and also serves as the root of uncertainty with Joseph entering this offseason. Do they pay him for what they think he can be? Or do they opt to let him take a one-year deal in order to see if the talent he flashed is there to stay? It’s a risky situation, because either option could easily end up being a mistake. If he plays as he did in that stretch over the course of a full season in Ottawa, his price skyrockets. But if the Senators commit now, there’s the chance that his scoring outburst was just a mirage, and they’ve overpaid for the idea of a player rather than the reality of the one they have. With all that in mind, Joseph seems like an under-the-radar pick for the most intriguing restricted free agent situation of the offseason.

F Alex Formenton — This past season was the year that winger Alex Formenton finally broke into the NHL full-time, and his impressive rookie year couldn’t have come at a better time, as he’s lined himself up for a nice raise from the $747k cap hit he played on last season. Formenton scored 18 goals and 32 points in 79 games last year, a goal total that ranked fourth on the Senators. Formenton’s speed is his best asset, and he got to show it off on the penalty kill. Formenton averaged just under 2 minutes of short-handed ice time per game, on a penalty kill that impressively ranked 13th in the NHL. Formenton looks like he could be a long-term asset in the Senators’ middle-six, providing valuable goal-scoring, speed, and special-teams ability. While a bridge deal is definitely possible, the Senators could also look to sign Formenton to a long-term deal in order to protect against any improvements to his game driving up his price.  Perhaps the best contract to use as a guide would be Buffalo Sabres forward Alex Tuch, who signed a seven-year, $4.75MM deal with the Golden Knights after a rookie season where he scored 15 goals and 37 points in 78 games, similar numbers to Formenton’s this year. $4.75MM is a lot to commit to Formenton for what he is now, but teams should be paying for what players are going to do, rather than what they’ve already done. Tuch quickly made his contract look like a steal and Formenton definitely has the talent to do the same.

Other RFAs: F Adam Gaudette, D Erik Brannstrom, G Michael McNiven

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Chris Tierney — Like Norris, Tierney also came to Ottawa as part of the Erik Karlsson trade. Unlike Norris, though, Tierney has played his way out of a long-term stay in Ottawa rather than played his way into one. Tierney’s first season with the Senators was a great follow-up to the promising final season he had with the Sharks. While he only scored nine goals, he finished with 48 points. While some expected the 24-year-old Tierney to build off of that season and have it serve as the baseline for the production that could be expected of him, Tierney regressed. First only a little, with a small decline in 2019-20 to only 37 points in 71 games. But it was 2020-21 where things really went downhill, as Tierney had only 19 points in 55 games, the lowest he’d ever marked in an NHL season. This year was no better, as he had 18 points in 70 games. Dorion stated at his end-of-season press conference that Tierney would not be extended in Ottawa, so he will look to find a role with another club seeking to unlock the potential he showed just a few years ago.

D Victor Mete — While Mete is technically a pending restricted free agent, Dorion has already stated that Mete would not be issued a qualifying offer and would therefore become an unrestricted free agent, hence him being listed here. Mete is an interesting case, as he’s the sort of player that, on paper, a team like Ottawa should be committing to developing. Mete, now 24, was once one of the Montreal Canadiens’ top defensive prospects, and he first made the NHL playing as Shea Weber’s partner. But while Mete’s abilities in transition as a puck-mover were always his calling card, no other aspect of his game developed as the Canadiens had hoped. Mete famously took 126 games to score his first NHL goal, and the lack of development of the rest of his tools, beyond his abilities in transition, caused the Canadiens to eventually waive him. Many were calling for teams to claim Mete, and the Senators did just that. But unfortunately for the Senators and Mete, it was more of the same in Ottawa, and by 2021-22 he found himself a frequent healthy scratch. Mete enters the offseason with the chance to choose his destination for the first time in his career, and given his history there still is some reasonable hope that he could develop into an NHLer. But the clock’s ticking on him, and the choice of his next destination will go a long way in determining if he’ll eventually turn into the NHL defenseman many once believed he could be.

Other UFA’s: F Tyler Ennis, F Andrew Agozzino, F Clark Bishop, F Scott Sabourin, F Zachary Senyshyn, F Logan Shaw, D Dillon Heatherington, D Zac Leslie

Projected Cap Space

This is where the Senators have an advantage over other teams. In a flat-cap era where having flexibility under the salary cap is at an absolute premium, Ottawa has over $20MM in projected cap space entering this offseason. Sure, a lot of that should be earmarked for potential extensions for Norris, Formenton, or even an early deal for Stutzle, but they’ll still have more room to maneuver than most teams. That’ll be especially true if they find a way to get out from under Matt Murray’s $6.25MM AAV deal. A buyout seems like the most likely solution, as it would not only save the Senators $5MM in real cash but also give them $4.5MM in cap savings this year and $5.5MM next year, at the cost of $2.5MM in dead money for the next two seasons after that. With the Senators looking to go hunting for a big name this offseason, expect their advantageous cap position to be leveraged to a great degree in order to maximize their ability to compete in the near future.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Philadelphia Flyers

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Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Flyers.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Morgan Frost — Frost, 23, has had high expectations placed on him since he was drafted 27th overall at the 2017 draft. Frost was a prolific scorer at the junior level, notching over 100 points in his final two seasons for the Soo Greyhounds of the OHL. In Frost’s first professional season he flashed that scoring talent as well, potting 13 goals and 29 points in 41 games. Frost also got into 20 NHL games, and posted a respectable seven points, although he did at times struggle with the pace and physicality of the NHL game. A dislocated shoulder cost Frost almost all of the 2020-21 season, and this past season was one that wasn’t the clear developmental step forward that many hoped it’d be. Sure, he scored well at the AHL level, with 19 points in 24 games, but he was shuttled between the NHL and AHL level multiple times before settling in and getting into a total of 55 games for the Flyers. He finished with 16 points in 55 games at the NHL level, including four in his last five games, and at times flashed the offensive upside that made him such a tantalizing prospect in the first place. His two-way game is still a work in progress, though, and it remains to be seen if Frost can truly stick down the middle long-term at the NHL level. His overall upside is still very much a mystery, and as a result, his next contract is complicated. If the Flyers remain major believers in his upside, he could always ink a long-term deal, but that seems highly unlikely, especially since he was not a draft pick of GM Chuck Fletcher. A one or two-year bridge contract seems most likely.

F Owen Tippett —  Tippett, in some ways, is a lot like Frost. He’s also a 2017 first-rounder who has yet to establish himself as a full-time NHL-er but has also flashed the potential that got him drafted so high in the first place. Tippett came to Philadelphia as part of the Claude Giroux trade, and in his stretch as a Flyer (often playing on a line with Frost) Tippett had the up-and-down play that one would expect out of a highly skilled but also flawed young player. Tippett finished with seven points in 21 games, and also had 18 points in 14 games at the AHL level, a more clear reminder of the offensive talent he possesses. Like Frost, a short-term bridge makes the most sense for Tippett, who should come in at around a $1MM cap hit, if not lower.

F Zack MacEwen — MacEwen was claimed off of waivers from the Vancouver Canucks at the start of the 2021-22 season, and was one of only seven Flyers to reach the 75 games played mark. MacEwen, 25, is a hard-nosed grinder whose NHL minutes come thanks to his physicality and relentless motor. MacEwen isn’t much of an offensive producer — he had only nine points in 75 games in 2021-22 and has 18 points in his 130 career NHL games — but he plays a role many coaches still want in their lineup and does so at a cheap price. MacEwen played on an $825k cap hit this year and as he’s an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent, expect a small raise from that number to reward his hard work and availability.

Other RFAs: F Wade Allison, F Jackson Cates, F Hayden Hodgson, F Tanner Laczynski, F Isaac Ratcliffe, F Matthew Strome, F Maksim Sushko, D Linus Hogberg, G Kirill Ustimenko

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Nate Thompson — It’s been clear what Nate Thompson can bring at the NHL level for many years now. The 37-year-old center has been a bottom-six staple for nine NHL teams since making his debut in 2006-07. Thompson plays around 10-12 minutes per night, helps a second penalty-killing unit, and wins over half his draws. Thompson may not have a ton of gas left in his tank as he gets deeper into his late thirties, but if he still wants to play it’s easy to imagine him finding another suitor for the well-defined package of skills he brings. He clearly has an affinity for Philadelphia as well, as he signed up to return to the organization as a free agent after a year in Winnipeg, having first joined the Flyers as part of a 2020 trade with the Montreal Canadiens. It remains to be seen if the team’s expected next head coach, John Tortorella, will want Fletcher to retain his services, but if he does then Thompson could probably be had for around the $800k cap hit he played on this past season.

D Keith Yandle — Yandle was the subject of some controversy this season, as the Flyers snapped an “iron man” streak of consecutive games played that had lasted since 2009. Yandle is a well-liked locker room voice and a highly respected veteran, although his play on the ice has slipped considerably. After being bought out of his massive seven-year, $44.45MM deal, Yandle signed a one-year, $900k deal with the Flyers. He provided his trademark offense, albeit to a decreased degree, notching 19 points in 77 games. He also showed the defensive deficiencies that have plagued his game for years, deficiencies that have become even more pronounced as he’s aged. While Yandle is a player deserving of the utmost amount of respect for the career he’s had so far, it’s difficult to imagine a return to Philadelphia is in the cards for him. But given all that he’s put forth to date, he should probably be able to catch on somewhere this summer with a chance to make a team at a training camp next fall.

G Martin Jones – Like Yandle, Jones joined the Flyers after an offseason buyout forced an exit from his previous team. Unlike Yandle, though, Jones’ 2022 season was a quiet one. He got into 35 games and posted a .900 save percentage, a performance that isn’t anything to write home about. That production is made more palatable, though, by the fact that he was playing behind one of the NHL’s worst teams. The Flyers were a mess last season, and Martin Jones was far down on the list of their biggest issues. Jones is a veteran of nearly 400 NHL games and has flashed brilliance in the past, like when he led the San Jose Sharks on a run to the Stanley Cup Final in 2015-16. He’s a backup goalie who has in the past shown an ability to handle starter-level workloads, so another contract around the $2MM he earned this year, if not a touch lower, seems fair.

Other UFAs: D Kevin Connauton, F Ryan Fitzgerald, D Adam Clendening, D Brennan Menell, G Felix Sandstrom

Projected Cap Space

The Flyers enter an offseason where getting the team on track after two hugely disappointing years is a number-one priority. They have just over $5MM in cap space at the moment and their pending restricted free agents figure to occupy a small chunk of that. The real “X-factor” for this Flyers’ offseason, from a cap perspective, comes from whatever they choose to do with some of their highly-paid veterans. Defensemen Ivan Provorov and Travis Sanheim, making $6.75MM and $4.675MM against the cap, respectively, have each been the subject of trade rumors, as has winger James Van Riemsdyk, who is entering the final year of his $7MM-AAV deal. If the Flyers want space to aggressively upgrade their roster next month, they’ll likely have to move one of their major contracts.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Pittsburgh Penguins

at CDT | by 11 Comments

Free agency is now less than six weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Penguins.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Danton Heinen — Heinen joined the Penguins last offseason after the Anaheim Ducks chose not to issue him a qualifying offer, and he did everything asked of him in a depth role for Pittsburgh in 2021-22. Playing in 76 games, Heinen notched a career-high 18 goals serving in a middle-six role on the wing. Every aspect of his game took a gigantic step forward in Pittsburgh this season, and the former Bruins fourth-round pick truly showed his ceiling as an NHL player. 26 now, (he’ll turn 27 before free agency opens on July 13), this is undoubtedly the best chance Heinen will have to earn a big contract in his career. With that kind of production, Heinen could likely earn a deal north of $2.5MM per year in free agency, likely even into the $3MM range. As a restricted free agent with arbitration rights, though, it’s not a sure thing Pittsburgh qualifies him. The Penguins have some higher priority players to give money to this offseason, to say the least, and the arbitration risk with Heinen could be too high.

F Kasperi Kapanen — Kapanen’s second season in Pittsburgh was mired in inconsistency. Failing to take a step forward in his development and even healthy scratched at times, Kapanen managed 11 goals and 32 assists after scoring 30 points in just 40 games last season. A strong shooter, Kapanen isn’t the grittiest or most defensively responsible player either. He’s also eligible for arbitration, like Heinen, but with his poorer season and inconsistent track record, the risk for an intolerable offer is likely lower than Heinen’s. Considering Kapanen’s ceiling as he demonstrated in 2020-21, the Penguins would likely want to keep him around with the hope that he finds that level of game again.

Other RFAs: F Justin Almeida, F Jordy Bellerive, F Kasper Bjorkqvist, F Jan Drozg, F Alexander Nylander, D Niclas Almari, D Pierre-Olivier Joseph, D Cameron Lee, D Will Reilly, G Alex D’Orio

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Evgeni Malkin — There’s little left to say about Malkin, who’s cemented his legacy as one of the elite players in the history of the NHL with 1,146 career points and a gigantic trophy shelf as well. More importantly for the Penguins, he had a gigantic bounceback season this year from his eight-goal campaign in 2020-21. Although he was limited to exactly half the season (41 games) with injury, he regained his point-per-game pace and tallied 20 goals and 42 points. With his injury history though, and at age 35 already, anything more than a three-year deal for Malkin would be an ill-advised move. The Penguins will do everything in their power to keep him, no doubt, and he’ll likely take a little bit of a pay cut from his previous $9.5MM cap hit to make it happen.

D Kris Letang — Letang had a monster season, finishing seventh among all NHL defensemen with 68 points in 78 games. He also finished fourth among defensemen with an average time on ice of 25:47. He’s coming off a $7.25MM per season deal and, right now, he’s worth at least that if not more. Also at age 35, though, giving Letang term is a gigantic risk. Letang is reportedly the team’s first priority to re-sign, but it’ll take more than the team’s last offer of just under $7.25MM for four years. Whether or not the team and the player can come to a compromise on term and value remains to be seen.

F Rickard Rakell — Adding Rakell at the trade deadline turned out to be a smart move from general manager Ron Hextall, as the skilled but inconsistent winger scored 13 points in 19 games, reclaiming some of his former glory in Anaheim. Unfortunately, Rakell was injured in the playoffs and registered no points in two games, averaging just 9:26 per night over the two. The 29-year-old is evidently one of the best secondary scoring options the team has, but it’s unlikely Pittsburgh can afford to give him the best offer available on the open market.

Other UFAs: F Brian Boyle, F Evan Rodrigues, F Anthony Angello, F Michael Chaput, D Nathan Beaulieu, G Casey DeSmith, G Louis Domingue

Projected Cap Space

The Penguins are currently over $23MM away from the $82.5MM salary cap Upper Limit, which is top ten in the league in terms of offseason space. Yet signing Malkin and Letang will likely take $15-16MM away from that number, leaving Pittsburgh with only around $7.5MM to work with to fill out the roster. With four forward spots and a backup goalie slot to fill, Pittsburgh will need to make concessions somewhere, either via trade or relying more heavily on their aging stars to carry the workload.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

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