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Milan Lucic

Snapshots: 2020-21 Season, Trade Conditions, 2020 Draft

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While hockey minds are hard at work trying to come up with a plan to fairly complete the 2019-20 NHL regular season and playoffs, if and when the league returns to action, those strategies cannot interfere with a full 2020-21 season. TSN’s Pierre Lebrun relays word from NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly that the league sees an 82-game season next year as imperative and will not entertain any options that call for a shortened 2020-21 season due to the interference with the 2019-20 campaign. With that said, LeBrun adds that the league will be flexible when it comes to start and end dates and schedule density next year, so long as each team plays 82 games. This could allow for the NHL to adopt an idea that has become popular amongst players during the break: a brief training camp and resumption of regular season play in July, an August and September postseason, an October off-season, and a return to action for a condensed 2020-21 season at some point in November. LeBrun notes that a cancellation of bye weeks and All-Star events next year could help to make a plan like this become reality. The NHL will look at all of their options, assuming there is a possibility that the current season can resume, to make next season run as normally as possible with 82 games being the critical criteria.

  • Should the NHL not be able to complete the 2019-20 season as scheduled, TSN’s Frank Seravalli states that one of biggest things that the NHL will need to clarify is a policy on trade and contract conditions. Those conditions are made with the implication of an 82-game schedule, as well as a full postseason. If those things become an impossibility, is there a fair way to determine whether conditions were met or not? Seravalli uses last summer’s trade between Pacific Division rivals Edmonton and Calgary as an example. In the swap of Milan Lucic for James Neal, a unique condition was added that awards the Flames a 2020 third-round pick if a) Neal scores at least 21 goals and b) Lucic scores ten or more goals fewer than Neal. As it stands, Neal has 19 goals on the season, so the first condition would not be met if the season ended today. However, since the deal was made with the assumption of 82 games, a pro-rated result would see Neal with 23 goals and Lucic with nine, which would result in Calgary landing the pick. The problem, as Seravalli describes, with either strategy is that it does not accurately make up for missed games. With a number of conditional picks and bonus clauses in play, the NHL would face the tough task of how it decides to treat conditions if the regular season and possibly the playoffs as well cannot be completed. Seravalli even mentions compensatory draft picks as a possibility to offset effected trade conditions.
  • One league event that is certain to occur, at some point and in some manner, is the 2020 NHL Draft. The draft is likely to remain in Montreal, but the June 26-27 dates look unlikely and the usual public audience and organized fanfare would be even more improbable if the event does go on as scheduled. In all likelihood, the draft will be postponed, but it will occur all the same. As such, NHL.com has released their updated March rankings of the top 31 players in the class. Although there hasn’t been much new film to study in recent weeks, with junior leagues paused, the college season cancelled, and most European leagues ending as well, the staff at NHL.com has made a notable changes since their last edition earlier this month. Finnish forward Anton Lundell has snuck into the top ten, supplanting Russian goaltender Yaroslav Askarov. Much like eventual Florida Panthers pick Spencer Knight last year, there was heavy top-ten talk about Askarov this season as well, but it has cooled somewhat of late as the depth of elite forward in the class could make it difficult to select a netminder so early.

Trade Conditions Hinging On Regular Season Games

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There’s little doubt that the NHL would prefer to resume the season and play out the remaining regular season games, but speculation still swirls that it may need to move directly into the playoffs depending on how long this “pause” lasts. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription required) spoke with deputy commissioner Bill Daly who made it clear that nothing has been decided yet, but that next year’s season will not be shortened even if the playoffs leak into the summer.

If the final dozen or so games are cancelled and the league decides to move directly into the playoffs it would certainly ruffle some feathers given the standings and points percentages right now, but there are other things to consider if a chunk of the season is lopped off.

Perhaps most notably (other than the drastic financial impact it might have on next year’s cap) are how a shortened season would affect trade conditions. This is probably the last thing on the minds of league officers, but fans have already started wondering about some of the deals their teams have made in the past. Below, we’ll look at a couple of those conditions that might be influenced by a loss of the remaining games.

Toronto acquires Jack Campbell (link)

When the Maple Leafs went out a few weeks before the trade deadline and acquired their backup goaltender, an interesting condition was attached to one of the third-round selections heading back to the Los Angeles Kings. Should the Maple Leafs make the playoffs in 2019-20 and Campbell wins six regular season games, the 2021 third would upgrade to a second-round pick.

Through six appearances for Toronto Campbell already had three wins, and was likely going to get a few more opportunities down the stretch. If the season ends without any more regular season games, the Kings will have to hope that Toronto decides to re-sign Kyle Clifford if they want that second rounder.

Carolina acquires Sami Vatanen (link)

The Hurricanes went out at the deadline and bought, acquiring three impact players in the process. While Vincent Trocheck and Brady Skjei immediately made an impact, Vatanen suffered a setback in his recovery and looked like he might miss the majority of Carolina’s remaining games. The fact that he hadn’t played for them yet made it look like the conditions on a 2020 fourth-round pick wouldn’t be met, but this break actually may result in a positive for the New Jersey Devils (at least in this case).

There are two games played thresholds involved in the deal for Vatanen at five and 12, which suddenly don’t seem that difficult to meet if the pause allows him to recover. Of course that would require the regular season games to be played in this scenario.

Edmonton, Calgary swap Milan Lucic, James Neal (link)

This is the one you’ve been waiting for, given how ridiculous the condition seemed at the time of the trade. To refresh your memory, the Flames will receive a 2020 third-round selection if Neal scores 21 goals and outscores Lucic by at least 10. Neal is currently 11 goals ahead of Lucic on the season, but has just 19 total. If those regular season games never get played, it would seem that the condition has not been met. Perhaps there is a prorated version in the fine print, but as of now the deal looks to be “one-for-one.”

Calgary’s Milan Lucic Suspended Two Games for Roughing

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The Department of Player Safety announced that they have suspended Calgary Flames forward Milan Lucic two games for roughing Columbus Blue Jackets’ Kole Sherwood on Saturday.

Sherwood drove to the net during the second period and took a shot that was saved by Calgary’s goaltender David Rittich. After making the save, Sherwood poked at the goaltenders’ pads for which he received a two-minute slashing penalty. However, Lucic didn’t let the play end there. After slashing Sherwood’s stick away, Lucic then skated over to Sherwood, dropped his stick and punched the rookie forward, knocking him to the ground. Lucic did not make it clear that he intended to punch him, making it clearly a sucker punch.

This is the biggest suspension that Lucic has received. While he’s been involved in a number of incidents over the years, he has been suspended only twice, each for one game. He was last suspended in 2016 for punching Arizona’s Kevin Connauton and then was also suspended in 2011 for checking Philadelphia’s Zac Rinaldo. He was fined $10K last season for roughing Tampa Bay’s Mathieu Joseph.

The suspension kicks in immediately as he is expected to miss tonight’s game against in Washington, against the Capitals and then at home against Arizona on Tuesday.

Pacific Notes: Sharks Roster, Lucic, Larsson, Richardson

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With a drastically poor start, the San Jose Sharks find themselves at the bottom of the Pacific Division 4-10-1 record, tied for the second-worst record in the NHL. That wasn’t what most people expected at the start of the season and Curtis Pashelka of the Mercury News wonders when change might start happening if the team doesn’t quickly turn things around.

The team is currently in the midst of dropping five straight and being outscored 22-8 in that span. The scribe writes that while the Sharks haven’t had too many poor starts in the last 15 years, general manager Doug Wilson hasn’t sat and watched often. The team made some small moves to shake things up in 2015 when they started 0-5-1, but also made bigger moves back in 2005 when they went out and acquired Joe Thornton to shake up the team.

Now word what Wilson might do now, but the team likely will make some smaller roster moves to start. Assuming he stays healthy during his AHL game Sunday, the Sharks are likely to recall defenseman Radim Simek and place him next to Brent Burns, moving rookie Mario Ferraro next to Marc-Edouard Vlasic. The team may also recall rookie Lean Bergmann, who has looked sharp in four games with the Barracuda with three goals and three assists, and could help the team’s fourth line.

However, if things don’t start to improve soon, don’t be surprised if Wilson begins to make major changes to the roster. Also of note, the Sharks do not have their first-round pick this year as they traded it to the Ottawa Senators for Erik Karlsson back in 2018.

  • NHL.com’s John Shannon reports that Calgary Flames winger Milan Lucic, who hit Columbus Blue Jackets’ forward Kole Sherwood late on a play, already had his hearing today. There has been no word on the league’s decision yet, which could come later today, but Shannon mentions that Lucic is not considered to be a repeat offender. He was last suspended in 2016, although he was fined last year. That will likely be considered by the league when they make their decision.
  • Kurt Leavins of the Edmonton Journal writes that Edmonton Oilers defenseman Adam Larsson, who suffered a fractured fibula after playing in just one games this season, is now skating and could be back in two or three weeks. Larsson, the team’s best defensive defenseman, was projected to miss six to eight weeks after suffering the injury.
  • The Arizona announced earlier today they have recalled Michael Chaput to take the place of injured forward Brad Richardson. However, The Athletic’s Craig Morgan reports that to make room for Chaput, the Coyotes have placed Richardson on injured reserve, retroactive to his injury date, which means he can be activated whenever he is ready.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Edmonton Oilers

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Edmonton Oilers

Current Cap Hit: $79,066,999 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Joakim Nygard (one year, $925K)
F Cooper Marody (two years, $925K)
F Kailer Yamamoto (two years, $894K)
D Evan Bouchard (three years, $894K)
F Tyler Benson (two years, $808K)
D Caleb Jones (one year, $720K)
D Ethan Bear (one year, $720K)

Potential Bonuses

Bouchard: $850K
Yamamoto: $230K
Marody: $75K
Jones: $70K
Bear: $20K

The team have a number of young players on entry-level deals, but so far while there is a ton of potential here, not one player has stepped up and established themselves as a full-time player on the Oilers roster. Yamamoto, the team’s 2017 first-rounder, was expected to provide the speed that the team needed to develop a fast-paced offense, but after 26 NHL games, he’s provided just one goal and four assists. Marody has appeared in six games with no points, while Benson, despite quite a bit of success in the AHL, hasn’t gotten a chance at the NHL level, although that’s likely to change this season. The team also has high hopes in Nygard, who is a speedy winger, who is coming off a 21-goal campaign in the SHL, but remains a mystery.

On defense, the team might get their 2018 first-round pick, Evan Bouchard, to make the team and contribute quickly, but he also must prove to the team that he’s ready for that opportunity. However, Bouchard already has seven games of experience with the Oilers (scoring one goal), while posting three goals and eight points for the Bakersfield Condors of the AHL in eight playoff games. Other defenseman might also be ready, including Bear and Jones. Bear has played two seasons now in the AHL, while Jones got 17 games with the Oilers last season and might be the most NHL-ready.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Darnell Nurse ($3.2MM, RFA)
F Sam Gagner ($3.15MM, UFA)
D Brandon Manning ($2.25MM, UFA)
G Mike Smith ($1MM, UFA)
F Zack Kassian ($1.95MM, UFA)
D Matt Benning (1.9MM, RFA)
F Markus Granlund ($1.3MM, UFA)
F Kyle Brodziak ($1.15MM, UFA)
F Josh Archibald ($1MM, UFA)
D Joel Persson ($1MM, RFA)
F Tomas Jurco ($750K, UFA)
F Colby Cave ($675K, RFA)

The bulk of the Oilers contracts seem to be one-year deals, which means that many players will have to prove to the Edmonton front office that they deserve a new contract. The team will likely unload the contracts of both Gagner and Manning after this season, which should free up $5.4MM of cap space. The Oilers traded for the veteran Gagner near the trade deadline and he contributed five goals and 10 points in 25 games for Edmonton, but he likely will take a bottom-line role with Oilers this season, while Manning has never been a good fit after being acquired from the Blackhawks in December last season. Smith is another veteran the Oilers have high hopes for, but the team will reassess its goaltending situation at the end of the year and whether to bring the then 38-year-old back for another season. The same can be said for players like Archibald, Granlund and Jurco.

The team will have pay up next season for Nurse, a restricted free agent, who put up career-high numbers last season with the Oilers. The 24-year-old put up 10 goals and 41 points and averaged 23:49 of time on the ice. He also blocked 146 shots, while adding 162 hits as well, making him a solid all-around player despite seeing his plus-minus drop from a plus-15 in 2017-18 to a minus-five last year. The team must decide whether to keep Benning, who will also be a restricted free agent. Benning saw his playing time drop by almost three minutes since the previous year and might lose his job to some of the team’s young defensive prospects.

The team also have a number of veteran players, who will hit unrestricted free agency, including Kassian, who saw career highs in ATOI (14:48) and goals (15) and also put up 191 hits as a bottom-line forward for the team. At 28, he could be considered an important keeper for the Oilers. Unfortunately, Brodziak’s success in Edmonton wasn’t as impressive as the veteran center averaged just 11:42 of ATOI, while scoring career low six goals and nine points.

Two Years Remaining

F Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($6MM, UFA)
D Adam Larsson ($4.17MM, UFA)
D Kris Russell ($4MM, UFA)
F Alex Chiasson ($2.15MM, UFA)
F Jujhar Khaira ($1.2MM, RFA)

This could be an interesting year for Nugent-Hopkins, who has always been an excellent defensive player, but now has established himself as a solid offensive player as well with a career-high 28 goals and 69 points. However with his contract coming up in two years, the Oilers might want to decide whether he is worth handing a long-term, expensive deal to. If they aren’t ready to lock him up, the Oilers might get the most value for Nugent-Hopkins at the trade deadlines. After all, top-six centers rarely come available and considering that any team that trades for him automatically gets another full season out of him, he might become quite a valuable trade chip.

The Oilers must also decide what they want to do with two of their highly-paid defensemen in Larsson and Russell. Both blueliners receive more than 20 minutes a night, but neither provides much offensive talent and haven’t been that helpful lately on defense either and between the two of them, the Oilers are giving them $8.17MM. Larsson put up comparable offensive numbers last year, but saw his defensive numbers drop as his minus-28 plus-minus was his lowest in his career by far. Russell also had comparable numbers from the last couple of years and kept his plus-minus in the positive, but the team may look to find a taker for either of them at the trade deadline.

Chiasson earned his two-year deal after posting a career-high 22 goals last season after winning a job in training camp on a PTO. The team hopes that the 28-year-old can duplicate that season. Khaira scored just three goals last season and will have to prove that he belongs on the roster next season.

Three Years Remaining

G Mikko Koskinen ($4.5MM, UFA)

Edmonton surprised many when former general manager Peter Chiarelli signed Koskinen to a three-year, $13.5MM extension last season despite a small sample size as an NHL goaltender. Koskinen didn’t fare that well in the second half of the season after signing the extension, putting up a 3.07 GAA and a .902 save percentage, which could make this a rocky relationship if Koskinen can’t prove to Edmonton that he is a No. 1 goaltender. The 31-year-old goaltender has spent most of his career in the KHL and may not be the answer that the Oilers were hoping for.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Connor McDavid ($12.5MM through 2025-26)
F Leon Draisaitl ($8.5MM through 2024-25)
F James Neal ($5.75MM through 2022-23)
D Oscar Klefbom ($4.17MM through 2022-23)

The team has a couple of stud players in McDavid and Draisaitl and most would suggest that they are worth their contracts and they might even be bargains considering how well they were playing. Both have proven to be top-line players and they both broke the 100-point barrier last season and combining for 91 goals. The fact that both are locked up for at least another six years (seven for McDavid) shows that Edmonton already has a base of two franchise players and just need to fill out the rest of their roster with solid players who can fill out the rest of the team.

Neal is an interesting gamble by new general manager Ken Holland. The team was looking for a way to unload the untradeable contract of Milan Lucic, but managed to get the long-term deal of Neal, who is coming off 10 straight seasons of 20 goals or more, before his seven-goal performance last year in Calgary. The team hopes that the 31-year-old can prove that last year’s egg was just a fluke and the veteran can bounce back and provide some scoring on the wing for a team that really needs it.

Klefbom is another interesting defenseman, who the team hopes can improve, especially offensively. The 26-year-old managed 38 points back in the 2016-17 season, but has hasn’t been able to break 30 points since then. While his minutes are impressive, Edmonton needs to get more from one of their defensemen, who they signed assuming he would develop into a top-line defender.

Buyouts

D Andrej Sekera ($2.5MM in 2019-20 & 2020-21; $1.5MM in 2021-22 and 2022-23)
F Benoit Pouliot ($1.33MM per year through 2020-21)
D Eric Gryba ($300K in 2019-20)

Retained Salary Transactions

F Milan Lucic ($750K per year through 2022-23)

Still To Sign

F Jesse Puljujarvi

Much has already been written about the impasse between the Oilers and Puljujarvi, who has demanded to be traded because he believes he can’t become a top forward in Edmonton. Holland has received no viable offers from other NHL teams and it looks likely that Puljujarvi might have to stay overseas for a season and hope that he can develop his game overseas with Karpat of the Finnish League and come back in a year with a new sense of purpose. However, nothing has happened yet and there’s always a possibility that he opts to come back to Edmonton and tries it again. The only problem: he’s not waiver exempt anymore, meaning he must stay on Edmonton’s roster or be placed on waivers and undoubtedly would be claimed by another team.

Best Value: Draisaitl
Worst Value: Koskinen

Looking Ahead

The team has its franchise players and with plenty of cap space freeing up next season, the team might have a way to add even more talent. However, what Edmonton needs more than anything is to see some of their young talent take that next step and begin making some major improvements. The Oilers have a dearth of talent on defense that should slowly be trickling in over the next few years, but more than anything Edmonton needs scoring. While McDavid and Draisaitl cost the franchise a great deal, the team must find the wingers that can get the team back into the playoffs.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Pacific Notes: Coyotes Defense, Carter, Flames, Lucic

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The Arizona Coyotes have one of the highest payrolls among defensemen, the second highest in the league at $29.54MM. Yet despite their success defensively, the blueline’s offensive production just isn’t there. The Coyotes defensemen had the seventh-worst goal production in the league and were fourth-worst in points.

The Coyotes hope that much of the defense’s struggles can be accounted by the massive amount of injuries the team suffered throughout the year and while many of those injuries came from the forwards, the changes in personnel definitely had a part to play in the team’s struggles to score goals. The team also were without defenseman Jason Demers for all but 35 games last season and lost Jakob Chychrun for 29 games as well, according to The Athletic’s Craig Morgan (subscription required).

“We played defensive and there were so many injuries that we were forced to, but for the most part during the season, we directed the pace of the game and the scoring chances,” said Demers. “It’s just that once you get behind the eight ball and it has been 20, 30 games of not scoring, you tense up a little bit and you might force things you wouldn’t normally force or look for the perfect play when the perfect play is just getting it to the net.”

The team hopes that new assistant coach Phil Housley can help out and get the defense to start producing some offense, his forte when he was a player. The hope is that with a healthy blueline, the team should be able to take that next step.

  • The Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta appeared on NHL Tonight recently and stated that the Los Angeles Kings have tried to be active on the trade market, reporting that the Kings were talking to the Arizona Coyotes before the draft about potentially sending Jeff Carter there. Of course that was before Arizona turned around and traded for Pittsburgh’s Phil Kessel instead. However, trading off Carter may have been more of a challenge as the 34-year-old who scored just 13 goals and 33 points last season still has three years at $5.27MM AAV and obviously was no where near as productive as Kessel who finished last season with 82 points.
  • NBC Sports’ James O’Brien writes that despite moving James Neal Friday, the team’s salary cap situation hasn’t improved much at all. In fact, the Flames saved just $500K after they traded Neal for Milan Lucic, which will require Calgary to make more moves this summer. The team has just $9.97MM in cap space and still have to sign several restricted free agents, including Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett, David Rittich and Andrew Mangiapane.
  • Edmonton Journal’s Jim Matheson writes that another victory in the Edmonton Oilers of Lucic to the Calgary Flames for Neal is that Neal doesn’t have a no-trade clause and will not have to be protected in two years for the Seattle expansion draft. However, the Calgary Flames do have to worry about the fact that Lucic has a no-movement clause and will have to be protected, which could be a major issue in two years unless they can convince him to waive that clause for the expansion draft.

Pacific Notes: Lucic, Russell, Turcotte, Eaves

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The Calgary Flames had already lost one potential trade acquisition a couple weeks ago when they were had completed a deal with the Toronto Maple Leafs for Nazem Kadri only to see the veteran center refuse to waive his no-trade clause and reject the trade. That option could have been in front of Calgary a second time Friday as Milan Lucic seriously considered refusing to waive his no-movement clause, but a conversation with an old friend, Jarome Iginla, changed his mind.

“I had a really good talk with Jarome,” Lucic told the Flames website (via NHL.com). “He told me what a great hockey town Calgary is, how much the people are behind the Flames. It’s a fan base that loves seeing effort. They obviously want to win, but regardless, they love the heart-and-soul guys, the guys who give their all, who don’t compromise, which I like to think speaks to the way I play.”

Lucic and Iginla played together for one season with the Boston Bruins back in the 2013-14 season and spent a lot of time together that years as linemates. After the discussion with Iginla, Lucic agreed to the waive his no-movement clause and the deal commenced in which the Oilers swapped James Neal and a conditional third-rounder to round out the deal.

  • Now that the Edmonton Oilers have successfully rid themselves of Milan Lucic’s contract, many fans have focused their attention on the team’s defense, with the belief that general manager Ken Holland must target the contract of Kris Russell, who has two years remaining at $4MM AAV and has proven he’s not a top-four defenseman. However, Edmonton Journal’s David Staples writes that the team might be better off holding onto Russell, unless they can add a top-six forward in a deal for him, which seems unlikely. Russell has proven to a be a defensively sound blueliner and at least should provide solid play on the third line, who might be able to hold his own if an injury occurs.
  • In a mailbag piece, The Athletic’s Lisa Dillman (subscription required) writes that anyone hoping that Los Angeles Kings 2019 draft pick Alex Turcotte (the fifth overall pick) might break training camp with the team, will be disappointed. The team has a plan already in place in which Turcotte, who many had positioned as the best player in the draft after Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko, will play one season for Tony Granato and the University of Wisconsin and will not even be at training camp in September.
  • Eric Stephens of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that the Anaheim Ducks future looks better next season as the team should have just a few of their own free agents to deal with and even fewer contracts of significance. They will have a handful of restricted free agents, including Brendan Guhle and Troy Terry, but unless either has a breakout season, there is little for the team to worry about. The team’s biggest free agent will be veteran Patrick Eaves, who has played just nine games over two seasons as he has dealt with health problems since being acquired. The scribe writes the team would be extremely unlikely to bring the 35-year-old back and that free space should give the team about $19-20MM in available cap space next summer.

Lucic-Neal Notes: Conditions, Buyouts, Vancouver

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The Flames and Oilers may have become pioneers in the ways of NHL trades today, completing the Milan Lucic–James Neal trade with an extraordinary condition on the draft pick included by Edmonton. In addition to sending Lucic to Calgary, the Oilers also retained part of his salary and added a conditional 2020 third-round pick to the deal. It took some time, even after the formal announcement, to reveal what those conditions were. The first, which is very specific but not unheard of, is that Neal must score 21 goals next season. The second is somewhat more convoluted: Neal must also score 10+ more goals than Lucic next season as well. By all accounts, a conditional pick transfer based on two players’ performances relative to one another has never before been attempted in the NHL. Yet, it has immediately turned some heads and has many asking whether this is the future of trading. Will we begin to see other general mangers hedging their bets by sending conditional picks based on whether or not the trade works out as expected? If both teams agree to the deal, wagering on whether one player will outperform the other, then there does not seem to be a problem. It can be added insurance for the team adding the player who would be expected to be better on paper, while being a nice scenario for the other, who either get a draft pick or an unexpectedly strong performance out of their new acquisition. It seems to be a classic win-win-win, wherein both teams win and we the viewers win by having another story line to follow throughout the year. The Flames and Oilers may have opened the door to a new line of through when it comes to conditional draft picks.

  • Now that Lucic and Neal are on new teams, the question becomes how long will they stay in these new locales if their play does not improve. Many thought the Oilers would never be able to trade Lucic’s contract, so it’s hard to imagine that the Flames would be able to if his struggles continue next season. However, a buyout remains an unsavory idea next off-season as well. The move would cost Calgary $4.8MM/$3.5MM/$4.8MM in the first three years, which is hardly a savings from his now-adjusted $5.25MM cap hit. Neal is another matter on both both points though. Even if Neal has another bad season, one would imagine that his trade value would not be totally gone give the astonishing consistency he played with for most of his career until landing with the Flames. An Oilers team that could very well miss the playoffs again next season may not be a fair metric either as to whether or not Neal is truly done. However, if a trade market does not develop, a Neal buyout is somewhat palatable for Edmonton. Next summer, a buyout would cost $1.92MM each year for six years. It’s not an ideal scenario, but for a cap-strapped team looking to open their championship window, a penalty of less than $2MM for six years may not hurt as badly as $5.75MM for three years.
  • Now that this trade is final, the rumors of a Lucic-Loui Eriksson swap can finally be put to rest. One of the most popular rumors this off-season, the disgruntled Eriksson wanted out of Vancouver and Lucic was open to the idea of a return to his hometown, prompting many to suggest the former Boston Bruins stars could be exchanged for one another. Yet, Sportsnet’s Rick Dhaliwal asked Lucic today if at any point he had been approached about waiving his No-Movement Clause for a move to the Canucks. His response: “No never. There was never a trade to Vancouver as far as I’m concerned.” It seems that a deal, including Eriksson or anyone else, never actually came together to bring the native power forward home. Lucic is in Calgary now, but Eriksson and the Canucks are both still hoping to find a new home for the veteran forward before next season.

Edmonton Oilers Trade Milan Lucic To Calgary Flames

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7:45pm: Sportsnet’s Mark Spector reports that there are two conditions on the third-round draft pick sent to Calgary and, in a move not before seen in the NHL, one has to do with the traded players’ production relative to one another. The first condition is that Neal must score 21 goals in 2019-20. The second condition is that those 21+ goals must also be 10 goal or more above Lucic’s goal total on the year. According to Spector, the conditions do not cause a shift in the round of the pick; instead, if those conditions are not met, the Oilers do not owe the Flames any pick at all.

7:00pm: The deal is now official, including the additional pieces and salary retention on Edmonton’s side. In addition to Lucic, the Flames announced that they have also acquired a conditional 2020 third-round pick as well, though terms of the condition were not disclosed. Additionally, the Oilers will retain 12.5%, or $750K, of Lucic’s $6MM cap hit. In other words, Calgary will pay Lucic $5.25MM against the cap for the next four years, while Edmonton will pay a total of $6.5MM against the cap for Neal and Lucic’s retained salary, also for four more years.

2:30pm: The Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames have decided to swap a pair of underperforming forwards. According to Nick Kypreos of Sportsnet the Oilers will send Milan Lucic to their provincial rivals in exchange for James Neal after Lucic decided to waive his no-movement clause. Bob Stauffer of 630 CHED and Gene Principe of Sportsnet have heard the same, though neither team has confirmed it at this point. Jason Gregor of TSN reported earlier that Lucic would be willing to waive the clause to go to Calgary. Eric Francis of Sportsnet expects the Oilers to include a conditional draft pick and retain part of Lucic’s salary.

Lucic, 31, has been considered one of the worst contracts in the league since the day he signed it on July 1, 2016. Agreeing to a seven-year, $42MM deal in unrestricted free agency, he was supposed to add some physicality, experience and scoring prowess to an up-and-coming Oilers team led by two young superstars. In the first year of the deal Lucic disappointed but still scored 23 goals and 50 points, helping the Oilers to the playoffs for the first time in a decade. There were red flags even then however, as Lucic was noticeably slowing down and scored more than half his goals on the powerplay. His even-strength production of 25 points was underwhelming and only a signal of things to come.

In 2017-18, things completely fell apart. Lucic recorded just seven even-strength tallies and scored just a single goal in his final 46 games. Last season was even worse, and at this point the former Boston Bruins star is a fourth-liner with a $6MM cap hit. That wasn’t going to cut it in Edmonton where new GM Ken Holland and the Oilers are trying desperately to reshape their roster even without much cap flexibility.

Neal meanwhile hasn’t been much better since signing his own lucrative free agent contract. Signing a five-year, $28.75MM deal on July 2, 2018, Neal was supposed to be the consistent goal scoring threat to line up alongside young forwards like Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan. He had just completed his tenth consecutive 20+ goal season and been to consecutive Stanley Cup Finals with the Nashville Predators and Vegas Golden Knights. His offense was rarely contingent on powerplay time and the 30-year old had played with some of the best players in the world during a long career. Unfortunately, that Neal never arrived in Calgary.

Instead, the veteran ended up posting just seven goals and 19 points in 63 games for the Flames. A healthy scratch at times, his role on the team was immediately limited as he never seemed to find a real comfortable fit in the forward group. Basically every metric fell off a cliff for Neal, and Calgary regretted his contract tremendously. Luckily it did not include any trade protection—a notable difference from Lucic, who will require protection in the expansion draft thanks to his no-movement clause.

The question will be whether either player can recover some of their past glory in their new homes. Lucic has been a shell of his former self offensively for more than two years now, but at least still does provide that physical presence that the Flames have been looking for. The 6’3″ winger has recorded at least 200 hits in each of the last six seasons including 259 in 2018-19. If that’s the role Calgary is expecting of him, he should fulfill those expectations just fine.

Neal however probably has bigger shoes to fill. The Oilers have been desperate for any sort of goal production from the wing—partly due to Lucic’s decline—and may still have big expectations for Neal, especially if they are retaining salary and giving up an additional asset. He’s only a year away from a 25-goal campaign with Vegas, but he’ll have to prove his worth to head coach Dave Tippett before he is strapped to McDavid’s wing.

In all, this is a crap shoot for both teams hoping to find some production in their misspent money. If Lucic can give the Flames some bite and contribute a bit on the fourth line he’ll be more useful to them than Neal was. If Neal can play the powerplay and log some time beside their best forwards he’ll have more value to Edmonton. Neither scenario is guaranteed.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Canucks Notes: Free Agency Targets, Edler, Eriksson

at CDT | by 2 Comments

Vancouver GM Jim Benning continues to be honest and open with the media this off-season about the direction of the team and his plans moving forward. In a media session yesterday, the veteran executive spoke on a number of topics, including the positions he will try to fill in free agency. Per NHL.com’s Kevin Woodley, Benning was happy to reveal who he may target:

Going forward now, if we are going to add through free agency, we want to try to add top-four defensemen or top-six forwards, so I think our needs in that way have changed. I haven’t been shy about stating that we would like to improve our defense. There are different avenues to try to do that, so we’re looking at all those avenues.

The “change” that Benning is referring to is in contrast to last off-season, when the Canucks spent on bottom-six depth in free agency, targeting Jay Beagle, Antoine Roussel, and Tim Schaller. This year, the names that the team will seek will be more high-profile. Up front, Vancouver has already been linked to Marcus Johansson, while British Columbia-native Brett Connolly will also likely be in consideration. On the back end, Jake Gardiner is known to be a free agent target, although Benning’s comments make it seem as though the Canucks could also scour the trade market for a top-four defenseman as well. One way or another, it seems this summer will be more exciting than the last for Vancouver.

  • That “top-four target” could also come internally, as Benning acknowledges that the team is still working through contract talks with long-time stalwart Alex Edler. Edler is an impending free agent and asked not to be traded at the trade deadline this past season in hopes of an extension with Vancouver. Months later, a deal has not yet been signed. It appears that term and trade protection appear to be the sticking points, especially as the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft looms. Edler would like protection from a possible Seattle selection, but Benning and the Canucks would rather use one of their limited slots on a key young piece. Sportsnet’s Iain MacIntyre relays some honest words from Benning on the subject:

I think it’s fair to say we don’t have the appetite to do that. We had to do that last time with Daniel and Henrik Sedin. But we’re going to have some good young players that we need to protect or we’ll lose them.

  • Edler could be gone if talks don’t improve, and so could another veteran, Loui Eriksson. Benning spoke to Eriksson’s comments to a Swedish newspaper earlier this off-season, when he stated that he did not trust or get along with head coach Travis Green. Benning said that he has plans to talk with Eriksson soon, but that those comments are a true cause for concern and a trade could be a real possibility. This isn’t the first we’ve heard of Eriksson trade rumors, with many linking him to the Edmonton Oilers and former head coach Dave Tippett in a possible swap for fellow expensive and under-performing forward Milan Lucic. However, Benning’s comments would imply that a trade could happen even if it isn’t with Edmonton. The team may have trouble finding a taker for the remaining three years and $6MM AAV on Eriksson’s contract, but if it’s a matter of team chemistry, the team may have to do whatever it takes to move the seasoned winger.

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