East Notes: Wheeler, Holl, Jost, Devils RFAs
Former Winnipeg Jets captain Blake Wheeler is one of the more intriguing late additions to the unrestricted free agent market after getting bought out today. While most analytics suggest the 36-year-old is over the hill, he did still notch 55 points in 72 games last season and should still be capable in a third-line role at worst, and could likely earn upwards of $3MM on a one-year deal.
Today, TSN’s Darren Dreger reported the Florida Panthers have an interest in adding the veteran winger when he hits the open market tomorrow, although he won’t be their first priority. The team remains focused on shoring up their defense, with both Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour set to miss the start of the season. Still, the team is projected to have $10.2MM in cap space (CapFriendly) without taking any LTIR relief into account, and they should easily be able to accommodate a forward of Wheeler’s likely price. Dreger also listed a former team of Wheeler’s, the Boston Bruins, as a potential fit, although their cap situation currently makes any external additions a tough ask.
Elsewhere in the East:
- Toronto Maple Leafs fans may not be the biggest Justin Holl supporters, but the blueliner could still end up returning to the team after the market opens tomorrow, says ESPN’s Ryan S. Clark. Clark notes there’s significant market interest in Holl, as multiple teams have inquired ahead of tomorrow, while The Athletic’s Jonas Siegel called it less than a 50% chance Holl would end up back in Toronto. Overall, the 31-year-old is a fine fit in most teams’ top fours but is prone to some extremely visible mistakes.
- While they didn’t qualify him today, it may not be the end of Tyson Jost‘s time in Buffalo. The Buffalo News’ Lance Lysowski reports the Sabres are continuing to negotiate with his camp in hopes of working out a deal for the forward, who the team claimed off waivers from the Minnesota Wild earlier in the season. His presence at the beginning of the 2023-24 season was made more valuable by the news of Jack Quinn‘s Achilles injury, which will keep him out for at least the first few weeks of the campaign. He could slip to a press box role, however, upon Quinn’s return – especially if the team adds another forward on the free agent market (which they have ample cap space to do).
- The New Jersey Devils are also still negotiating with former RFA forwards Jesper Boqvist, Michael McLeod, and Nathan Bastian, none of whom were given qualifying offers today, per ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski. New Jersey opted not to qualify any of these players, who likely won’t play any higher than a fourth-line role, out of fear that a potential arbitration award would be too rich for their blood.
East Notes: Zucker, Red Wings, Maple Leafs
Jason Zucker had a strong showing for the Penguins this past season, notching 27 goals and 21 assists while, perhaps most importantly, staying healthy after a pair of injury-plagued years. Despite that, Matt Vensel of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette suggests that the prudent move for Pittsburgh would be to not bring the pending unrestricted free agent back for next season. The 31-year-old is likely to be seeking a contract similar to the $5MM AAV he has played on the last five years and with the team needing to eventually transition toward becoming a younger and quicker team, locking up another player well into their thirties won’t exactly accomplish that objective. Not bringing Zucker back would also give Kyle Dubas more flexibility to work with this summer, albeit with an extra opening of significance on his roster.
Elsewhere in the East:
- It appears that the Red Wings won’t bring back any of their pending unrestricted free agents, suggests Bob Duff of Detroit Hockey Now. Duff adds that Detroit is believed to have made a one-year offer to center Pius Suter who declined in the hopes of securing a multi-year commitment while winger Alex Chiasson has passed on a two-way offer, hoping to land a one-way deal on the open market this summer. Goalie Alex Nedeljkovic and winger Adam Erne are among the other players set to hit the open market in a couple of weeks.
- It’s extremely unlikely that the Maple Leafs bring back forward Alexander Kerfoot or defenseman Justin Holl, reports Postmedia’s Lance Hornby. Kerfoot has been a capable secondary producer over his four seasons in Toronto but cap space will be at a premium and they wouldn’t be able to offer him the $3.5MM he made on his set-to-expire contract. As for Holl, he has shown himself to be a serviceable role player on the back end but it appears that Toronto is trying to re-sign Luke Schenn to fill that spot, pushing the 31-year-out out of a place in the lineup. Both players will hit the open market two Saturdays from today.
East Notes: Rangers, Holl, Maple Leafs
Already a day after his removal as the head coach of the Nashville Predators, John Hynes has plenty of interest from teams around the NHL. Per Mollie Walker of the New York Post, it appears that the New York Rangers have been given permission to interview Hynes for their head coaching vacancy.
The Rangers have already been heavily linked to Peter Laviolette, but with another veteran head coach now on the open market, it is only natural that the Rangers continue to do their due diligence. Having been a head coach in the NHL for the last nine seasons, Hynes fits the mold of an established coach that the Rangers appear to be after in their search.
In his first five years behind the bench of an NHL team, Hynes took the New Jersey Devils to a 150-159-45 record, appearing in the playoffs once during the 2017-18 season, losing to the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round. After his ouster in New Jersey, Hynes was hired by the Predators prior to the 2019-20 season.
In his four seasons in Nashville, Hynes coached the Predators to the playoffs three times, losing in the first round each year. After all was said and done in Nashville, Hynes held a 134-95-18 record with the Predators.
Other notes:
- In a report today from the Toronto Star, Kevin McGran reports that Justin Holl would like to return to the Toronto Maple Leafs next season. However, Holl’s agent, Brian Bartlett, recognizes that significant turnover is likely coming to the Maple Leafs’ roster this summer, and Holl could very well be an odd man out. Although providing good physical energy to Toronto’s bottom-four defensemen highlighted by his 139 blocks and 151 hits, Holl lacked mightily in the possession game with 28 takeaways compared to 56 giveaways.
- Confirming last week that the General Manager of the St.Louis Blues, Doug Armstrong, did not have an out clause in his contract to join the Maple Leafs as General Manager, Andy Strickland of Bally Sports Midwest reports that Toronto never asked the Blues for permission to speak with Armstrong. Today, the Maple Leafs found their head of the front office by hiring Brad Treliving.
Toronto Places Kase On LTIR, Recalls Three On Emergency Basis
After losing three starters in Tuesday night’s game against the rival Boston Bruins, the Toronto Maple Leafs were left with little choice but to tweak their roster. Up against the salary cap and managing a number of injuries, Toronto has opted to move forward Ondrej Kase to the Long-Term Injured Reserve, CapFriendly reports. This raised the Leafs’ LTIR pool just enough to make three emergency recalls while staying under the upper limit of the cap. Promoted to the NHL roster are defensemen Mac Hollowell and Filip Kral and goaltender Michael Hutchinson, who will replace Justin Holl, Ilya Lyubushkin, and Petr Mrazek, each of whom exited last night’s game.
Kase has been out since suffering a head injury earlier this month. As of Friday, the team had still not ruled it a concussion, but given Kase’s extensive history of head injuries it hardly matters. The dynamic, but oft-injured winger will need plenty of time to return to action, allowing the team to move him to LTIR. He joins defensemen Jake Muzzin and Rasmus Sandin on the long-term shelf, bringing the Leafs’ LTIR salary pool to $7.77MM, the amount that they may exceed the salary cap as a means of replacing those players. However, Muzzin and his $5.625MM cap hit are expected to be activated sooner rather than later, which will drastically change the calculus for Toronto.
Meanwhile, Holl, Lyubushkin, and Mrazek join starting goaltender Jack Campbell as the Leafs’ other injured players. Mrazek’s injury history and inconsistency this season make his absence both relatively unsurprising and somewhat inconsequential. However, the major hit to the blue line depth cannot be ignored. While Toronto impressed in a 6-4 win over Boston on Tuesday, they can ill-afford to continue battling this injury bug. They sit just two points ahead of the Bruins and one point behind the Tampa Bay Lightning in the race for Atlantic playoff position and are set to face Tampa and the Florida Panthers next week.
While the veteran Hutchinson is battle-tested and ready for the challenge, he and rookie Erik Kallgren splitting the net for the Leafs is unlikely to be successful for too long. On the back end, Hollowell and Kral have no NHL experience and are an even bigger liability. Toronto is hoping that these emergency recalls are just that and their regulars will be back in action soon.
Petr Mrazek, Ilya Lyubushkin, Justin Holl All Exit Tonight’s Game For Toronto Maple Leafs
The Toronto Maple Leafs confirmed that goaltender Petr Mrazek exited tonight’s game with a groin injury and would not return. Toronto also confirmed that defensemen Ilya Lyubushkin and Justin Holl would also not return tonight for precautionary reasons. For now, Toronto will have to finish its game tonight against the Boston Bruins with only one goaltender and just four defensemen.
It has been a tough stretch for the Maple Leafs in net, as well as a tough stretch for Mrazek himself, and this injury certainly does not help either. It was early in the first period against the Boston Bruins that Mrazek appeared to come up limp. In pain, Mrazek tried to stretch, but was eventually pulled and replaced by rookie Erik Kallgren in net. While the Maple Leafs do expect Jack Campbell to return soon, an exact return date is unknown, and leaves Toronto without a true backup, certainly for tonight.
For Mrazek, a tough season gets tougher. After missing stretches early in the season with a groin issue, he appeared to be fully healthy and performing well before struggling greatly the past couple of months, eventually leading to being put on waivers on March 20th. After Mrazek cleared, he was re-called, he appeared to be refresh and back to his old ways, stopping 54 of 58 opportunities in two starts since returning, winning both.
Trade Deadline Primer: Toronto Maple Leafs
With the All-Star break now behind us, the trade deadline looms large and is now less than a month away. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
As has been the case for the past few seasons, the Toronto Maple Leafs are once again under immense pressure to buy at the deadline and finally make the jump out of the first round of the playoffs. The team has already made one move, adding defensive depth to the roster in the form of former Arizona Coyote Ilya Lyubushkin, but with some potential added cap flexibility due to defenseman Jake Muzzin‘s injury, general manager Kyle Dubas has the chance to make a bigger splash prior to March 21st.
Record
33-14-4, 3rd in the Atlantic
Deadline Status
Buyer
Deadline Cap Space
$4.47MM today, $4.47MM in full-season space, 1/3 retention slots used, 47/50 contracts used per CapFriendly
Upcoming Draft Picks
2022: TOR 1st, TOR 2nd, TOR 7th*
2023: TOR 1st, TOR 2nd, TOR 3rd, TOR 4th, TOR 5th, TOR 6th
* – if Brennan Menell plays 30 regular-season games for Toronto in 2021-22, the Minnesota Wild receive Toronto’s 2022 seventh-round pick. Menell has yet to make his Leafs debut this season.
Trade Chips
It’s been widely reported that the team is reluctant to move their first-round pick this year or much of their top prospect pool. Taking that into account, it’s likely that any trade package includes a body from their now-extremely deep defensive pool. The most appealing option for trade partners is likely Travis Dermott. The team’s second-round selection in 2015 has been continually pushed down the depth chart by the emergence of Rasmus Sandin, but still has upside at 25 years old. He’s consistently mustered solid defensive results, and increased opportunity could help unlock some more offense. He has just five points in 37 games this year.
There’s also the matter of Justin Holl. He offers some cost certainty for teams, which is appealing — he’s locked into a $2MM cap hit through the end of next season. But he’s been prone to some egregious defensive mistakes this season, causing him to slip further down the lineup and become a healthy scratch at times. He does have experience playing top-four minutes, though, and does have a solid defensive track record throughout his short career. He still likely has some trade value.
Toronto also has a trio of young goalies in their AHL system in Erik Källgren, Joseph Woll, and Ian Scott. While the organization is high on Woll and would prefer to retain him, one of Kallgren or Scott could almost certainly be a part of a trade package. Källgren in particular likely carries some value, as he’s posted a solid .909 SV% in 22 AHL games and was the netminder behind Växjo’s run to the Swedish Hockey League championship in 2021.
Others To Watch For: F Alex Steeves ($834K through 2024), F Pontus Holmberg ($828k through 2023), D Mac Hollowell ($800k this year, $750k through 2023)
Team Needs
1) Wing Depth — Toronto has gotten impressive seasons out of free-agent wild cards Michael Bunting and Ondrej Kase, as well as Alexander Kerfoot and Ilya Mikheyev. But too much depth is never a bad thing, and the Leafs could use an upgrade to slot into the top-six, likely alongside John Tavares on the second line. Kerfoot’s versatility allows him to slide back down to a third-line role with ease, helping create a better matchup game for head coach Sheldon Keefe come playoff time.
2) Potential Muzzin Replacement — The health status of Jake Muzzin for the playoffs remains uncertain, as he’s on long-term injured reserve indefinitely as he recovers from his second concussion in a short timeframe. If Muzzin isn’t ready to go, an experienced left-shot D-man (Mark Giordano?) could make sense, especially as to not put too much pressure on the shoulders of the young Sandin and Liljegren.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Maple Leafs Add Three To COVID Protocol
The Toronto Maple Leafs had some reinforcements at practice today as Mitch Marner and Pierre Engvall joined the team on the road after spending the last week in the COVID protocol. Unfortunately, their return came with some bad news as well, as Justin Holl, Ondrej Kase, and Nick Ritchie have all been placed in the protocol.
It’s tough timing for Kase, who had just returned from injury and received an opportunity to play with Auston Matthews on the team’s top line. He has played more than 20 minutes in each of the last two games, and though Marner’s return would have cut into that time, his performance for the Maple Leafs this season has been strong enough to command an increased role. In 30 games, the oft-injured Kase has eight goals and 17 points.
For Holl, missing any time could have disastrous implications should the coaching staff decide his replacement can handle the top-four role. The 29-year-old defenseman has had a tumultuous season, including a period as a healthy scratch and trade rumors swirling around his future in Toronto. In 29 games, he has just three points, a far cry from the player who registered 20 last season as part of a shutdown pair with Jake Muzzin.
Ritchie meanwhile was just struggling to stay in the lineup for Toronto and has been a disappointment from game one. His two-year, $5MM contract appears to be a mistake at this point with just two goals and nine points in 33 games. Ritchie’s ice time has been slashed dramatically–he started the year on the first line–to the point of being a healthy scratch earlier this month.
According to David Alter of The Hockey News, Matthews and Michael Bunting are the only two Maple Leafs regulars to not test positive for COVID-19 over the last month.
East Notes: Blue Jackets, Bishop, Holl, Niku
With the salary cap flattening out making it more difficult to up contract offers from a salary standpoint, trade protection is starting to become a little more important. However, some teams are pushing back on that front and one of those appears to be the Blue Jackets. GM Jarmo Kekalainen told Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription link) that while he’s okay with limited protection, that’s as far as he’s willing to go in contracts now:
As long as we don’t have any no-moves I’m fine with some of the limited no-trade lists, eight teams or 10 teams, you still have 22 teams you can deal with. So I’m not as adamant as David (Poile) maybe but it’s in very limited cases that we give them and we’re not doing any no-moves anymore.’
At the moment, the only Blue Jackets player with any form of trade protection is center Sean Kuraly who has a 10-team list. Defenseman Zach Werenski has a similar 10-team list in his extension which kicks in next season.
Elsewhere in the East:
- The Maple Leafs have signed goaltender Alex Bishop to a one-day amateur tryout deal, David Alter of The Hockey News is among those reporting. The move is necessary with Petr Mrazek out with a groin injury but Toronto can’t make the money work to recall another goalie from the minors. The 24-year-old plays at the USports Level with the University of Toronto. Once they play tonight’s game, they’ll be given approval for an emergency (cap-exempt) recall. Toronto can’t send defenseman Timothy Liljegren down to make room for netminder Michael Hutchinson as he’s needed with blueliner Justin Holl unavailable due to a non-COVID-related illness; Toronto’s electing to play down a backup goalie over only dressing five defensemen.
- Canadiens defenseman Sami Niku has been given the green light to return from his concussion, relays Sportsnet’s Eric Engels (Twitter link). However, he won’t be in the lineup tonight against the Rangers. Niku had his contract terminated by Winnipeg last month and signed with Montreal soon after. The Canadiens have an open roster spot and won’t need to make any moves to activate him off IR.
North Notes: Andersen, Holl, Koskinen, Lerby
The Toronto Maple Leafs might be getting back a familiar face in net as goaltender Frederik Andersen, who has been on the ice for more than a week now saw his practice routine ramped up Sunday. Head coach Sheldon Keefe, who said today was a “good step” in his recovery from a knee injury he suffered in mid-March, according to TSN’s Mark Masters.
He is not expected to join the team on their road trip to Montreal, but is expected to participate in Wednesday’s practice as they build up his workload.
TSN’s Kristen Shilton reports that Justin Holl, who left Saturday’s game in the third period after being hit in the face with a puck, was not at practice Sunday. He was replaced in the lineup by Timothy Liljegren. Keefe said that Holl “is doing well,” but will not be travelling to Montreal with the team, according to NHL.com’s Mike Zeisberger. However, Holl is not expected to be out for a significant amount of time.
- Sportnet’s Mark Spector reports that the Edmonton Oilers are expected to give some starts to goaltender Mikko Koskinen over the team’s final seven games. Koskinen, who lost his job as the team’s starting netminder, got his first start Wednesday since April 7 and fared quite well, stopping 29 of 30 shots against Winnipeg. Despite the impressive play of veteran Mike Smith, the team might want to kick the tires on Koskinen and see what he has to offer after struggling earlier this year. He has posted an 11-11 record this season with a 2.99 GAA and a .906 save percentage this season, allowing Smith to overtake him as the team’s No. 1 option.
- The Calgary Flames may be losing a prospect as defenseman Carl-Johan Lerby is close to signing a new contract with Malmo of the SHL after his two-year deal with Calgary expires this offseason, according to Johan Svensson of KvallsPosten (translation required). Of course, nothing has been confirmed, but the 23-year-old Lerby, who signed with the Flames as an undrafted free agent in 2019, has yet to make his NHL debut and doesn’t look on track to do it this season. He spent the first season of the contract on loan to Malmo and has spent this season with the Stockton Heat of the AHL where he has seven assists in 22 games.
Expansion Draft Issues: Several Teams Have Moves To Make Before July 17
The trade deadline may have come and gone, but that doesn’t mean that there won’t be any more trades over the courses of the remainder of the league year. The NHL Expansion Draft is right around the corner, with protection lists due on July 17, ahead of the draft on July 21. By that time, all 30 participating teams must be able to submit a protection list that complies with the exposure requirements of the draft. As a reminder, teams may protect seven forwards, three defensemen, and a goalie or eight skaters and a goalie. However, they must also expose two forwards and one defenseman signed beyond this season and who have played in 27 NHL games this season or 54 games over the past two seasons, as well as a goaltender under team control beyond this season.
For many teams, this is easier said than done though. Long-term forwards and defensemen with considerable games played who are also deemed expendable are not all that common. With the trade deadline completed, teams are stuck with the group that they have unless they decide to make a trade in the time between their regular season end or postseason elimination and the week of the draft. Some can solve their problems internally, while others may be more hard pressed. Based on their most likely protection scheme, here are the teams with work to do:
Calgary Flames
Problem Area: Forward
Internal Solutions: The Flames may be having a difficult season, but they have a talented top-six who are all signed long-term. Except, that’s where the term forwards end. If Calgary cannot convince Milan Lucic to waive his No-Movement Clause, the team will be missing both of their required forwards for exposure by protecting Looch and the top-six. Even if Lucic does waive, the team will need to make another forward available to Seattle. RFA Dillon Dube meets the games played criteria, but the team is likely to protect the young forward or, if not, will not do anything to make him more attractive to the Kraken. That leaves fellow RFA Dominik Simon and impending UFA’s Derek Ryan, Josh Leivo, and Joakim Nordstrom, as well as Brett Ritchie with six more games played, as other names who could earn extensions due to otherwise meeting the exposure criteria.
Likelihood of a Trade: Medium. With so many affordable, bottom-six role players that the team could hand new one-year deals, the Flames have options. However, if Lucic does not waive and the team feels pressured to re-sign two of those players, they may look for outside help rather than bring back too much of a forward corps that has underachieved this year.
Colorado Avalanche
Problem Area: Forward
Internal Solutions: As one of the top scoring team’s in the NHL, the Avalanche will want to keep as much of their forward corps as they can and with the likes of Gabriel Landeskog and Brandon Saad heading to free agency and not in need of protection, the team can do just that. However, if Colorado does protect their top nine scoring forwards minus Landeskog and Saad, that leaves them with, at best, one forward to expose and zero if they choose to protect both Valeri Nichushkin and J.T. Compher. If the Avs do choose to protect the duo, that should leave RFA Tyson Jost unprotected, who they could extend in order to meet the exposure requirement. However, Jost has arbitration rights and may not rush into a new deal. Other candidates to re-sign would be UFA’s Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Carl Soderberg, or Matt Calvert. Fortunately, the Avalanche have an even easier internal fix and that is simply playing Logan O’Connor five more times before the end of the season.
Likelihood of a Trade: Low. Between playing O’Connor and exposing one of Nichushkin or Compher, Colorado may not have to make any move at all. If they do, they have options. Who wouldn’t want to re-sign in Colorado right now, even if its only for the purpose of being expansion draft fodder.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Problem Area: Forward
Internal Solutions: It’s easy to guess six forwards that the Blue Jackets will protect, but the seventh is a bit trickier. Do they expose star Gustav Nyquist, who has missed the whole season due to injury and is on a substantial contract and on the wrong side of 30? Or do they expose Eric Robinson, who has been a hard-working depth presence this season but has limited upside? Well, if they choose to protect either one, it only leave the other as meeting exposure criteria. Only if both are exposed is Columbus good to go and that scenario seems unlikely. However, the only forward currently meeting the requirements other than term is RFA Kevin Stenlund, though UFA Mikhail Grigorenko requires only two more games played (and a new contract).
Likelihood of a Trade: High. The Blue Jackets surely want to bring Stenlund back, but he has arbitration rights and may not be keen to sign quickly just to help with expansion requirements. If a Stenlund deal can’t be reached sooner rather than later, Columbus may not have a choice but to bring someone in from the outside. A Grigorenko extension seems unlikely, as does exposing both Nyquist and Robinson.
Dallas Stars
Problem Area: Forward
Internal Solutions: The Stars’ protection scheme at forward is fairly obvious, as they have seven core forwards who stand out above the rest. However, those seven are also the only regular forwards with term on their contracts. Of all other expansion-draft eligible forwards for Dallas, only Joel L’Esperance has additional time on his current deal and he cannot reach the games played requirement. As a result, the Stars must find two forwards to expose, whereas most of these other problematic teams can at least scrounge up one forward. Among the options to re-sign are veteran UFA’s Blake Comeau and Andrew Cogliano or younger UFA’s Tanner Kero and Justin Dowling. However, it may be easier to re-up an RFA like Jason Dickinson or, with three more games, Nicholas Caamano.
Likelihood of a Trade: Medium. The Stars have a number of options, many of whom will likely re-sign at some point anyhow or else Dallas will have to rebuild their bottom-six from scratch. However, with two slots to fill there is always a chance that acquiring a player could be easier than negotiating a pair of early extensions.
New Jersey Devils
Problem Area: Forward
Internal Options: A rebuilding Devils team has a number of regular forwards who are ineligible for the draft and many others, protected or not, who are restricted free agents. What they lack is many term forwards, especially of the the expendable variety. While New Jersey could go in a few different direction with their protected list, the reality is simply that they have only five draft-eligible forwards who are signed beyond this season and at least four of those are locks to be protected. The x-factor is Andreas Johnsson. The first-year Devil has fallen well short of expectations and it would not be a surprise to see him exposed, leaving the team with just one spot to fill to meet the quota. However, if they are determined to give Johnsson a second chance and not lose him for nothing, then that becomes two slots that must be filled. The other problem in New Jersey is that the team doesn’t want to give Seattle any added incentive to steal some of their promising young players. Michael McLeod, Janne Kuokkanen, Yegor Sharangovich, and Nathan Bastian would all meet the exposure criteria if extended, but it’s safe to assume that the Devils will protect two or three of that group and may not be too excited to lose any of the others. Nick Merkley, who requires seven more games played and a new deal, could be seen as more expendable and may be okay with accepting a quick extension, even if it just for expansion purposes.
Likelihood of a Trade: High. With the possibility that New Jersey could protect Johnsson and, in any scenario, will want to steer the Kraken away from their young forwards if at all possible, the Devils seem like a prime candidate to bring in some outside help with meeting exposure criteria.
San Jose Sharks
Problem Area: Forward
Internal Options: Much like the Stars, the Sharks are not an elite team right now, but possess a solid group of top-six forwards who will all be protected. Also like Dallas though, the team has complete lack of long-term commitment to any forward outside of that group. The only other eligible forward signed beyond this season is Jayden Halbgewachs, who has not played a single NHL game, nevertheless enough to meet the requirement. There is not a great list of internal options to re-sign either. Of the players who would meet exposure criteria with an extension, Patrick Marleau is likely to retire, Marcus Sorensen seems to need a fresh start in free agency, and one of Rudolfs Balcers and Dylan Gambrell is likely to be the seventh forward protected. That really leaves UFA Matt Nieto as the lynchpin. If the Sharks can re-up Nieto and whoever they don’t protect between Balcers and Gambrell, they are good to go. If Nieto isn’t keen to re-sign and if Balcers or Gambrell wish to pursue arbitration, the Sharks will be stuck without any forwards to expose.
Likelihood of a Trade: High. The Sharks are in as tough a position as any team on this list. If left exposed, Washington native Gambrell seems like a very likely pick by Seattle, but San Jose needs to meet the exposure quota all the same. That could involve bringing in one if not two forwards before the draft. There simply aren’t many other options on the roster.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Problem Area: Forward OR Defense (Scheme-Dependent)
Internal Options: It should come as no surprise that a team build entirely on a small, expensive core group and veterans on affordable, one-year deals is not well-prepared for the expansion draft. Of the ten Toronto skaters who currently meet the exposure criteria, four are forwards that will be protected in any scenario and three are defensemen that will be protected in any scenario. This leaves Alex Kerfoot at forward and Justin Holl on defense(with Pierre Engvall as the odd man out will likely be exposed regardless); only one can be protected and the other is the most likely Leaf to be selected. If the Maple Leafs value Holl more than Kerfoot, they will go with eight skaters in their protection list. In this scenario, they will not have any defensemen who meet the exposure criteria. Fortunately, any of RFA Travis Dermott or UFA’s Zach Bogosian or Ben Hutton could re-sign and fill that role. Alternatively, if the team values Kerfoot more than Holl, they will go with the standard 7-3 protection scheme. This would allow them to protect Kerfoot as well as extend and protect others like Zach Hyman, Joe Thornton, or Jason Spezza. Those three would all meet exposure requirements as well with a new deal, but Toronto will not offer them up to Seattle. Wayne Simmonds, Riley Nash, or Alex Galchenyuk could be more likely though. Unfortunately, these are all unrestricted free agents and not as easy to re-sign before the off-season as a restricted free agent. The Leafs could find themselves in a bind as a result.
Likelihood of a Trade: Low. There is still so much to be determined about the Leafs’ approach to the draft and they have options either way and player who would likely be eager to re-sign. It’s not a straightforward situation by any means, but they should be able to figure it out without taking the risk of adding salary that they can’t spare by making a trade.
Winnipeg Jets
Problem Area: Forward
Internal Options: The Jets are known for their depth at forward and eight of their top-nine meet the exposure criteria as a result, with RFA Andrew Copp not fitting the bill but almost certain to be protected anyway. The decision for the seventh and final protection slot is likely between the recently-extended Adam Lowry and upstart Mason Appleton. Whoever isn’t protected fills one of the two exposure roles. However, no one else is currently eligible. Extension candidates include UFA’s Mathieu Perreault, Trevor Lewis, and Nate Thompson, but Winnipeg may not necessarily want to commit further to any of those three. The solution: Jansen Harkins is signed through next season and requires just four more games to meet exposure level.
Likelihood of Trade: Low. Just play Harkins and move on. The list of teams in trouble is already long enough.