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Hampus Lindholm

Pacific Division: Remaining RFAs

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We’re now in the dying days of August, less than a month away from the start of the World Cup and training camps. However, there are still 15 restricted free agents remaining, and many of them are not who you would expect to be unsigned at this point. Two NHL teams’ leading scorers, four top-four defensemen, and several other high quality players are still looking for new deals.

Let’s break down the remaining RFAs by division, starting out west in the Pacific Division:

Anaheim Ducks – $7.52MM in cap space, according to Cap Friendly – The Ducks have mostly stood pat this summer after bringing back Randy Carlyle to replace the fired Bruce Boudreau. However, the budget-bound Ducks still have some work to do – their best defenseman, Hampus Lindholm, and World Cup-bound center Rickard Rakell still need new contracts. Lindholm logged the most minutes on the Ducks and put up 28 points as a dependable two-way force. Rakell is behind Ryan Getzlaf and Ryan Kesler on the center depth chart, but finished fourth on the Ducks in points with 43. The Ducks would like to get both signed long term, but will need to get creative to fit it all under their self-imposed budget. Cam Fowler has been the subject of trade rumors throughout the summer as the Ducks ready themselves for these two contracts and next summer’s expansion draft.

Arizona Coyotes – $7.85MM in cap space, according to Cap Friendly – Arizona has been locked in tough negotiations with Tobias Rieder all summer. It’s believed the talented scorer and reliable two-way winger is looking for a contract similar to new Coyotes forward Jamie McGinn, who signed a three-year, $10MM contract. However, new GM John Chayka isn’t budging, and Rieder has threatened to head to the KHL if the two sides can’t come to an agreement.

Calgary Flames – $8.59MM in cap space, according to Cap Friendly – The Flames have been in an unenviable situation this summer, with their two top forwards needing new contracts. GM Brad Treliving locked up center Sean Monahan to a seven-year, $44.625MM contract last week, but has yet to sign the team’s leading scorer Johnny Gaudreau. Gaudreau has said he won’t negotiate during the upcoming World Cup, where he’ll suit up for Team North America. Their camp starts on the long weekend, so there’s just two weeks remaining for Gaudreau and the Flames to put pen to paper. The Flames also have to sign Freddie Hamilton, minor league center and brother of Dougie. Hamilton played four NHL games last season, potting a goal and an assist.

West Notes: Rakell, Rattie, Gaudreau

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With the World Cup of Hockey fast approaching, another unsigned restricted free agent is headed to Toronto. According to Stephen Whyno of the Associated Press (who we interviewed just yesterday on PHR) Rickard Rakell will join the Swedish club replacing the injured Alexander Steen.  Steen had surgery in June on his shoulder, and is still trying to be ready for the opening of the regular season.

Rakell will be rewarded for last season’s breakout that saw him score 20 goals and 43 points in his second full season. Rakell remains one of the Ducks priorities this summer, along with fellow unsigned RFA Hampus Lindholm. The team, with only $6.6MM in cap space at the moment, may not have enough to sign both to long-term deals and may have to settle for the player-friendly bridge deal.

  • Among the news at Pro Hockey Talk’s St. Louis Blues day is that Ty Rattie will be given a real chance to stick with the big club this season.  Adam Gretz writes that with the team losing veteran forwards like David Backes, Steve Ott and Troy Brouwer to free agency, there is plenty of opportunities for young players like Rattie. This is in line with a similar article on NHL.com today, that quoted GM Doug Armstrong: “I think the game is getting faster, and youth is being served. I think we were going to transfer to this (youth movement) regardless.” Rattie has suited up for just 26 NHL games, but has proven his scoring ability at the AHL level with three straight 40+ point seasons.
  • After signing Sean Monahan earlier today to a seven-year deal, the Calgary Flames will now turn their attention to Johnny Gaudreau. Craig Custance of ESPN thinks that his deal will come in very close to Monahan’s, as the team views the situation as similar to Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane in Chicago. The Blackhawk stars signed identical $84MM deals in July of 2014, despite Kane having more career points (493 vs. 440). Monahan also has a full season more of NHL duty under his belt than Gaudreau, despite being more than a year younger than him. If the Flames can get both on long-term deals under $7MM, they’ll be set up nicely for the future with two underpaid superstars.

Snapshots: Unsigned Restricted Free Agents, Trouba, Hudler

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The list of Restricted Free Agents has some serious star power on it, despite the calendar turning to August. Between Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Hampus Lindholm, Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Kucherov, and Jacob Trouba, there are a handful of elite franchise building blocks without a contract. If you’re keeping count at home, that’s two legit number one defenseman, a possible number one in Trouba, and three high-end first line forwards. Quality players like Ryan Strome and Cody Ceci are also waiting to get contracts, having passed on their qualifying offers.

Here are some other snapshots from around the hockey world:

  • On That’s Hockey, TSN’s Gary Lawless reported that things are very quiet between Trouba and the Winnipeg Jets, saying the two sides are far apart on “everything… they’re apart on term, they’re apart on money, they’re apart on usage”. Trouba finds himself behind Dustin Byfuglien and Tyler Myers on the right side, and according to Lawless he feels he should be playing with one of the team’s top defenders. A trade involving Trouba is unlikely according to Lawless.
  • Also on TSN, Travis Yost made a strong case for UFA winger Jiri Hudler, arguing that while he’s past his prime scoring days, Hudler still has a very positive effect on his teammates. Hudler raises his team’s shooting percentage by 2.44 per cent when he’s on the ice. That ranks fourth in the NHL since 2010, behind superstars Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos, and the now-retired Martin St. Louis. We ranked Hudler 18th on our Top 50 Free Agents list back in June, and estimated a four-year, $16MM contract. Look for him to sign a much less expensive one-year pact with a goal-hungry team to prove he’s still got it.

Anaheim Ducks’ Defense Crunch

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When the Anaheim Ducks were eliminated this spring by the Nashville Predators in seven games, many pointed fingers at the poor performance of some of the top offensive options. Corey Perry had not scored a single goal, registering a -7 rating in the series, completely erased by a stifling Predator defense group.  The Ducks’ defense, even in losing, were just as spectacular, keeping the Predators to only 14 goals in the series and moving the puck with relative ease from their end.

It’s this defense group though, that may be giving the Ducks’ front office the most headaches this summer, as there are furiously tough decisions to make in the coming months.  Currently, it has seven men deserving of NHL spots, to say nothing of up-and-comers Shea Theodore and Brandon Montour, and NCAA transplant Andy Welinski.

The group consists of Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler, Kevin Bieksa, Clayton Stoner, Josh Manson, Simon Despres and Hampus Lindholm all solid NHLers, with contracts to prove it.  The group, led by Vatanen, is set to earn $20.65MM next season, not even including Lindholm’s yet-to-be-signed deal that could push $6MM AAV.

While every team needs depth on the blueline, not many can afford to put millions of dollars in the press box every night, waiting for an injury to happen.  While Fowler’s name has been bandied about since the Ducks were eliminated, nothing concrete has come out about Anaheim’s true desire to move him. Indeed, it would be a tough decision to move any member of the group, as each comes with their own strengths.

With Lindholm and Rickard Rakell still to sign, and under $8.5MM to do it, the Ducks will be tight to the cap if they head into the season with all seven blueliners under contract. They also risk losing one of their prized defensemen next offseason, when the Las Vegas TBAs get to pluck unprotected players from unsuspecting clubs in the expansion draft. Bieksa has a no-movement clause, and will therefor be automatically protected, leaving just two more defense slots (or three, if the Ducks choose to go with the eight-skater option and leave a young forward unprotected).

Fowler still seems like the most likely candidate for trade, but there is little doubt that teams would be more interested in the extremely cheap Josh Manson who, while earning only $825K per season, rates well at both ends of the rink and could become a building block for a new team on the right side.

With the pipeline that Anaheim has created, they would do well to leverage it into some help up front. Their current group is getting older, headlined by Perry, Ryan Getzlaf and Ryan Kesler who will all turn 32 in the next calendar year and are already starting to see cracks form in their production. Rakell and Jakob Silfverberg form a dynamic young duo, but represent the only two threats at forward under 26 years of age for the Ducks going forward.

(Anaheim Ducks’ Depth Chart via Roster Resource)

NHL Notes: RFA Defensemen

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As we mentioned earlier this week, there are several very talented Restricted Free Agents (RFAs) who have yet to sign contracts for next season. Of the 24 RFA defensemen who played in the NHL last season, 15 of them averaged more than 15 minutes per game (minimum 25 GP). Despite the high value of young capable defensemen (see Larsson, Adam), it is the their teams who appear to have the upper hand in negotiations.

Let’s take a look at the top five unsigned defensemen:

1. Hampus Lindholm – Anaheim Ducks – The Ducks number one defenseman, Lindholm averaged 22:00 minutes per night last season with superior possession numbers. His 28 points were 54th among defensemen, but Lindholm is still a bona fide top-pairing option. Lindholm is likely looking for a long-term contract in the $5-6MM range, similar to the Morgan Rielly ($5MM, Seth Jones ($5.4MM), and Nick Leddy ($5.5MM). The Ducks would probably prefer something lower, in the Travis Hamonic ($3.86MM), Oscar Klefbom ($4.17MM), and Justin Faulk ($4.83MM) range. Anaheim is a budget team, and is already only $8.4MM away from the cap ceiling with Lindholm and Rickard Rakell still to sign. Lindholm is not eligible for arbitration, and an offer sheet seems unlikely given the current NHL climate.

2. Tyson Barrie – Colorado Avalanche – Barrie seems to be constantly featured in trade rumors, mainly due to his high-end offensive ability (49 points last season) and coach Patrick Roy’s apparent lack of confidence in him. It doesn’t help that the Avalanche have just $8.3MM in cap space before Barrie and Mikhail Grigorenko’s arbitration hearings in late July. Barrie and his agent don’t need to look any further than teammate Eric Johnson’s $6MM salary for a starting point; Barrie outscored Johnson by 22 points in similar time-on-ice.

3. Rasmus Ristolainen – Buffalo Sabres – Ristolainen lead the Sabres in ice-time by just under 500 minutes. He was also fourth in team scoring with 41 points. He’s also extremely big at 6’4, 207 lbs and mobile. Ristolainen is already the Sabres best defenseman, and he’ll only be 22 in October. The Sabres will look to sign him long-term somewhere in the Faulk to Rielly range. The Sabres have approximately $11MM in cap space and still need to lock up Marcus Foligno and Zemgus Girgensons.

4. Jacob Trouba – Winnipeg Jets – Trouba is in an interesting situation in Winnipeg: he’s considered a future top-pairing player, and is big, mobile, and right-handed. However, he’s blocked from playing top-four minutes by fellow right-handers Dustin Byfulgien and Tyler Myers. Trouba has played the left side before, but like most players performs better on his natural side. There seems to be two options for Trouba; he can sign a bridge-deal and earn a big payday in two seasons when Mark Stuart and Toby Enstrom are free agents, or he can holdout for the big payday now. There was some talk last month about the Bruins looking at Trouba as an offer sheet candidate, but that seems to have passed. He’s not eligible for arbitration, so the ball is in Winnipeg’s court.

5. Danny DeKeyser – Detroit Red Wings – With Niklas Kronwall turning 35 last season, DeKeyser appears poised to be the next big man on the Red Wings blueline. The two defensemen lead the team in ice time, and DeKeyser will likely pass Krowall in that regard next season. The 25-year-old DeKeyser put up just 20 points last season, however Mike Green was the only defenseman who scored more. DeKeyser is scheduled for arbitration on July 28, but could very likely come to a longer agreement with the Red Wings before then.

Are Offer Sheets A Thing Of The Past?

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This summer’s restricted free agent (RFA) list is quite impressive, with nine 20-goal scorers and 13 players who scored more than 40 points last season. Forwards Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau, Nikita Kucherov, Marcus Johansson, and Mike Hoffman headline the forwards; while Hampus Lindholm, Tyson Barrie, Rasmus Ristolainen, Danny DeKeyser, and Jacob Trouba are the top defensemen. Detroit’s Petr Mrazek is the only big-name RFA goalie remaining.  Most of the above players are eligible for offer sheets.

According to Elliotte Friedman, compensation for offer sheets is as follows:

  • Less than $1.239MM (average annual value of contract) – Nothing;
  • $1.239-$1.878MM – Third-round pick;
  • $1.878-$3.755MM – Second-round pick;
  • $3.755-$5.633MM – First and third-round picks;
  • $5.633-$7.510MM – First, second and third-round picks;
  • $7.510-$9.388MM – Two first, a second and third-round picks;
  • Over $9.388MM – Four first-round picks.

With this in mind, teams could target rival teams top young players, with both outcomes having their benefits to the aggressive team: either they acquire a good young player for only picks, or they mess up a rival’s salary cap by inflating the player’s salary.

The threat of an offer sheet was evident last summer, with the Blackhawks trading Brandon Saad to the Blue Jackets and the Bruins trading Dougie Hamilton to the Flames. Both players were pending RFAs and in line for a big raise before being shipped out to prevent their teams from being subjected to an offer sheet. However, this summer has been the complete opposite, with teams taking their time to sign the above-mentioned stars, apparently not overly worried about offer sheets.

Why could that be?

The last time an NHL team successfully acquired a player via an offer sheet was in 2007. Then-Oilers-GM Kevin Lowe signed Anaheim Ducks LW Dustin Penner to a 4-year, $21.5MM contract. The Ducks did not match, and the Oilers forked over their first three rounds of draft picks in 2008. Penner enjoyed varying degrees of success in three-and-a-half seasons in Edmonton before being traded to Los Angeles where he won a Stanley Cup. The Penner offer sheet is most fondly remembered by then-Ducks-GM Brian Burke and Lowe’s escalating war of words which nearly lead to a fist-fight in a rented barn in Lake Placid. Commissioner Gary Bettman was forced to have a conference call with the two GMs to get them to stop.

It’s perhaps this sort of reaction that prevents GMs from making offer sheets. Earlier this summer, ESPN and TSN reporter Pierre LeBrun quoted an unnamed GM as threatening opposing GMs with an offer sheet per year for the next ten years as retribution for a potential offer sheet. There appears to be an unspoken agreement between GMs to leave RFAs alone. There hasn’t been an offer sheet tendered since 2013 when Colorado matched Calgary’s contract with Ryan O’Reilly, saving the Flames from an embarrassing and costly mistake.

So despite several fan bases calling for offer sheets, it seems unlikely that any players will be switching sweaters this summer because of one.

RFAs Still Waiting On Contracts

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After a busy few days watching free agent contracts be handed out like candy, and millions of dollars spent like pennies, there are still some key restricted free agents out there negotiating their next contracts.  Vincent Trocheck, Filip Forsberg and Seth Jones have already received deals eclipsing $25MM, locking them in long before they even get a sniff of unrestricted free agency.  Here are a few more names still waiting on deals:

For the entire list of RFA players, and the projected depth charts for each team head to Roster Resource and check out their detailed info.

Pacific Division Notes: Puljujärvi, Lindholm, Vegas GM

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Edmonton Oilers fourth overall pick RW Jesse Puljujärvi is not taking part in the on-ice portion of the team’s rookie camp in Jasper, AB, after undergoing knee surgery following the U-18 World Championships. Puljujärvi expects to be “good to go” in a month, meaning he’ll be ready for training camp in September.

More from the Pacific Division:

  • The Anaheim Ducks did not take part in the madness that was the opening of free agency, but still have some serious work to do this summer. Number one defenceman Hampus Lindholm and third line center Rickard Rakell still need to be signed. Lindholm will be looking for a long-term deal over a more team-friendly bridge contract, but the Ducks will want to get him under contract before another team decides to offer-sheet him. While there hasn’t been an offer sheet since the bizarre Ryan O’Reilly situation between Colorado and Calgary in February 2012, the Ducks won’t want to risk exposing their number one defenceman to an expensive offer sheet, which they would almost certainly match despite being a budget team.
  • The Las Vegas expansion franchise wants to name a General Manager before the end of the month, according to a report on NHL.com. Owner Bill Foley said he’d like the team to come up with three to five candidates to interview, and the team is working with the NHL to properly contact teams about potential candidates. Foley also revealed that the team’s nickname and color scheme will be unveiled in the fall.

Offer Sheet Candidates: Jones, Trouba, Lindholm

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Offer sheets are an interesting wrinkle in the NHL’s free agency period; a rarely used but powerful tool to try and steal away young talent from rival clubs. Though we may not see any this season – the last one to be signed was by Ryan O’Reilly in 2013 – there are a few interesting names out there that could possibly draw interest from other teams.  Let’s take a quick look at some of the offer sheet rules for this season:

  1. Teams can submit offer sheets to restricted free agents as of July 1st at 11:00 am central time. Players can choose to sign them at any point after that.
  2. If a player signs an offer sheet, his original team has seven days in which to match the deal or else accept the compensation.  During this time they cannot be traded.
  3. Compensation is as follows (according to Elliotte Friedman):
    Less than $1.239MM (average annual value of contract) – Nothing;
    $1.239-$1.878MM – Third-round pick;
    $1.878-$3.755MM – Second-round pick;
    $3.755-$5.633MM – First and third-round picks;
    $5.633-$7.510MM – First, second and third-round picks;
    $7.510-$9.388MM – Two first, a second and third-round picks;
    Over $9.388MM – Four first-round picks.
  4. Teams must have the picks available before signing the player, or else the offer sheet will be considered null and void.

Some hefty prices to pay if a team goes after a big name to be sure, but sometimes deemed worth it; the Flyers would have faced stiff compensation penalties had Nashville not decided to match their 14-year, $110MM offer to Shea Weber in 2012 (one that would no longer be allowed under the seven-year contract limit). Here are some names that might just be worth the risk:

D Seth Jones – The Columbus Blue Jackets have huge cap issues at the moment and are desperately trying to rid themselves of some of their bad deals.  After trading young star Ryan Johansen for Jones mid-season, they now need to find a way to re-sign the former fourth overall pick.

Jones is just 21, and has performed admirably in his first three seasons in the league, racking up 83 points in 240 games. If someone were to sign Jones to a long-term deal, the Blue Jackets would have a very difficult time matching it without finding a taker for some of their cap-hits. The team is already just $5MM under the cap, with close to $20MM committed to their blueline.

Whether Jones actually recieves any offers, or it’s just used as a negotiating tactic in order to pry some value out of the Blue Jackets in future trades, his name will surely come up in many talks this summer.

D Jacob Trouba – Another top-10 pick who is part of a deep defensive corps Trouba is considered available this summer on the trade market, and should be considered an offer sheet risk as well. While the Jets have much more cap room available, they already have three defencemen signed for over $5MM per season and might not be able to commit to a fourth.

Trouba has put up 72 points in 211 career games, and is considered a potential top-pairing blueliner in the future. Many teams could add him to their back end and thrust him into the spotlight in his fourth season. A long-term deal could be had, buying out free agent years and pushing that AAV up into un-matchable territory.

The Jets also have to worry about next year’s expansion draft, where they’ll be in danger of losing one of their young defencemen. Dustin Byfuglien and Toby Enstrom both have no-movement clauses that ensure their protection, leaving just one protection slot for both of Tyler Myers and Trouba (unless they choose the 8 skater option and risk some young forwards instead).

D Hampus Lindholm – The best player listed here, Lindholm has turned into an excellent defender for the Anaheim Ducks over the last few years. His case is one of worry for them as he could easily be offered a seven-year deal from teams around the league.

After signing Sami Vatanen last week, the Ducks now have five blueliners under contract for more than $3MM per season and adding a big deal that pushes $50MM could prove too pricey. If a team believes that Lindholm is the number 1 defenceman that he seems, they could decide to give up the picks in order to pry him away.

The Ducks have already dealt Frederik Andersen to save cap room and avoid losing him in the expansion draft, and they still have work to do before next summer. With Cam Fowler said to be on the market, perhaps he’ll be the victim of a looming Lindholm offer sheet.

 

Free Agent Focus: Anaheim Ducks

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After a disappointing first round exit that cost head coach Bruce Boudreau his job, the Anaheim Ducks will be looking to get back to Stanley Cup contention in 2016-17, and take the division crown for the fifth consecutive season.  While their ’big-3’ up front, Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry and Ryan Kesler, are locked up long term, the team has quite a few young players looking for raises as they hit restricted free agency. Here’s a look at their upcoming offseason:

Key Restricted Free Agent: D Hampus Lindholm – While you could pick from a handful of names for the Ducks’ key RFA this summer, Lindholm represents the most important out of all of them. After being selected 6th overall by Anaheim in the 2012 draft, Lindholm has continued to improve on his defensive ability, reaching all new heights this season.  While his usual excellent +/- numbers dipped slightly due to playing against tougher competition, he logged 22 minutes a night leading one of the youngest and most effective blue lines in the league.

His possession metrics are unbelievable, coming fourth in the league in CF% (a measure of puck possession based on shots for and against) only behind the excellent Los Angeles group. Lindholm improved the possession numbers of every single teammate he played with, providing Lidstrom-like efficiency on the back end. While he may never put up Karlsson or Burns type offensive numbers, his value is certainly felt by his teammates and front office.

Coming off his entry level contract and still only 22, Lindholm could get a long-term extension similar to the one Morgan Rielly received last month from Toronto. The Maple Leaf defender signed a six-year $30MM dollar deal to stay in Toronto, giving away two of his UFA years to lock in the higher value now.

Other RFAs: G Frederik Andersen, D Sami Vatanen, C Rickard Rakell, W Brandon Pirri

Key Unrestricted Free Agent: LW Jamie McGinn – When the Ducks acquired Jamie McGinn from the Sabres in late February of this year, they thought they were getting a nice two-way player who could chip in a few goals for them down the stretch.  What they got was 8 goals and 12 points in 21 games, landing him career highs in both categories and putting him back in the valued 20-goal club.

As he hits free agency this year he arrives with the fifth most goals available on the open market, ahead of players expected to get big deals like David Backes and Milan Lucic. While his point totals aren’t as high, his relative youth – McGinn won’t turn 28 until August 5th – and solid goal scoring ability should land him a multi-year deal somewhere.  Whether the Ducks can give him that isn’t quite clear.

With Lindholm, Andersen, Vatanen and Rakell all needing deals, the Ducks may just let McGinn walk away if he gets too pricey. After earning $2.95MM over the last two seasons he’ll be looking for a deal close to $4MM for at least three seasons.

Other UFAs: W David Perron, W Chris Stewart, C Shawn Horcoff, C Mike Santorelli, D Korbinian Holzer,

Projected Cap Space: $18.1MM, 15 players under contract.

The Ducks have a fair bit to worry about over the next year, as they are at risk of losing one of their good young defencemen in next year’s expansion draft. With Kevin Bieksa requiring protection due to his NMC, three of Lindholm, Vatanen, Cam Fowler, Josh Manson and Simon Despres will be left exposed as it currently stands. While there is no clear way to get around this without crippling your blueline, the team may choose to deal the more valuable pieces before the draft next season. For now, their focus will be on getting them under contract.

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