Friedman’s Latest: Lindholm, Blackhawks, Babcock, Hurricanes
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman covers a wide gamut of hockey news today, starting with the situation regarding Hampus Lindholm and the Ducks’ negotiations. Though the rumored $700K chasm has decreased, the term of the deal remains the sticking point. Anaheim is seeking a five-year deal while the Lindholm camp seeks six years. Friedman emphasizes that neither side will rush, but indicates that the Ducks need Lindholm “badly” as they’ve gotten off to a slow start. (As a side note, Bob McKenzie tweeted something very similar about the terms being the sticking point).
Other tidbits from Friedman
- The Blackhawks are hunting for a forward and are apparently willing to part with defenseman Trevor van Riemsdyk, who was purportedly dangled for Nail Yakupov. Yakupov eventually went to St. Louis, and Friedman indicates that the Hawks will have to “sweeten the pot” to get the forward they seek should they include van Riemsdyk in a deal. Further, he indicates that Blues general manager Doug Armstrong will try to add a veteran presence to the lineup at some point.
- Mike Babcock loves to check in on his players and current Maple Leaf Morgan Rielly says that the bench boss is true to his word. Friedman writes this:
“He’s in contact with you in the summer a lot more than you’d think,” Rielly answered. “Not all of it is hockey. Yes, he’s asking if you’re doing what he wants you to do, but he’s also asking what else you’re up to.” He then laughed a little and said, “I like hearing from him. But my family was surprised at how much he reached out.”
- The Hurricanes are betting a lot on forward Teuvo Teravainen and defenseman Noah Hanifin. Both have been featured on the powerplay and Freidman writes that despite some mistakes, the ‘Canes expect the young players to be a part of the core for years to come. The challenging experiences will occur and it’s part of the learning process.
RFA Focus: Hampus Lindholm
With the season now underway, the pressure for teams to come to terms with their remaining restricted free agents really starts to increase. Anaheim’s Hampus Lindholm is one of two remaining RFA defensemen left on the market. Here is a closer look at his situation.
2015-16
Lindholm continued his progression from the first two years of his career, slotting in once again as Anaheim’s top overall defenseman. He set a career high in goals and ice time per game while also making a sizable improvement in his advanced statistics. On a blueline filled with either offensive-minded players or stay-at-home options, Lindholm’s ability to provide above average play at either end of the rink gave the Ducks a much-needed two-way option on their defense corps.
Statistics
2015-16: 80 GP, 10 goals, 18 assists, 28 points, +7 rating, 40 PIMS, 149 shots on goal, 22:00 ATOI
Career: 236 GP, 23 goals, 69 assists, 92 points, +61 rating, 108 PIMS, 372 shots on goal, 21:04 ATOI
The Market
The term of the contract doesn’t appear to be an issue right now as both sides are interested in getting a long-term deal done. In late September, agent Claude Lemieux sent the following update to Eric Stephens of the Orange County Register:
“We are working on a long-term agreement for Hampus. We have been negotiating for a while and have exchanged multiple proposals. I will say that we, both the team and ourselves, are working on getting this resolved ASAP.”
At this point, money is the key sticking point. One of the complicating factors is that Lindholm has yet to have a breakout offensive season; his career high in points is 34. In contracts such as these, teams are forced to project and pay for future performance and Lindholm’s offensive production has yet to show that he has another element to that part of his game.
TSN’s Bob McKenzie reports that Lindholm is seeking upwards of $6.5MM per season, an amount that would appear to factor in the expectation of a big increase in his point production down the road. Meanwhile, the Ducks are believed to be coming in at least $1MM per year below that amount.
Comparable Contracts
Dougie Hamilton (Calgary) – Six years, $34.5MM – Hamilton signed this deal shortly after being traded to the Flames by Boston in the 2015 offseason. The previous campaign was the best year of his career (42 points in 72 games) while he also played a career high in ice time at just shy of 22 minutes per game. The perception of Hamilton at that time (a two-way defender on the rise) is quite similar to where Lindholm’s currently is although Hamilton’s platform season was stronger offensively.
Seth Jones (Columbus)/Rasmus Ristolainen (Sabres) – Six years, $32.4MM – Both players saw their roles significantly increase in 2015-16, becoming number one defensemen in the process. While Ristolainen has taken more strides on his offensive game, it’s expected that Jones will break out at that end in the next year or two and become a top flight two-way defender, much like Lindholm.
Morgan Rielly (Toronto) – Six years, $30MM – The Leafs signed the 22 year old to this deal late last season, one where he outpointed Lindholm for the first time. Rielly is a strong skater like Lindholm and is viewed as one of the more promising up-and-coming two-way defenders in the NHL making him a comparable that the Ducks have surely brought up in negotiations. However, Lindholm has had a bigger role with the Ducks than Rielly’s with Toronto so his new deal should come in above this.
Projected Contract
The comparables are all players coming off their entry-level deals which is where Lindholm currently is now. While their cap hits all start with a five, it’s also worth noting that these were all six year deals and both Lindholm and the Ducks are seeking a longer term. If that does happen, more UFA years would get bought out and those are always more expensive than RFA years which would increase the cap hit.
Projection: Six years, $33.6MM – It’s plausible to expect Lindholm to come close to all of these comparables.
But very few defenders have made more than $6MM coming off their first contract and the ones that have (such as Drew Doughty of Los Angeles and Alex Pietrangelo of St. Louis) have had better track records than Lindholm has at this point in his career so it’s hard to project him exceeding that amount here. Aaron Ekblad’s $7.5MM per year pact signed this summer is a new benchmark but that was signed after just two years of his first contract while he also has the clout of being the number one overall pick. As a result, Lindholm shouldn’t come in anywhere near that high, even if he was to get an eight year deal.
Snapshots: Rask, Yakupov, Despres
Veteran goalie Tuukka Rask of the Boston Bruins didn’t enjoy his best season in 2015-16, finishing with a 91.5% Save % and a GAA of 2.56. Both those rates constituted the worst of Rask’s career to date but as Joe Haggerty writes, the Finnish goalie is using that experience as a learning tool to prepare for the ups-and-downs likely to come in 2016-17.
With the Bruins in the midst of a transition, Rask is likely going to face more adversity this season but he feels the experiences of a year ago have made him “mentally tougher,” and less likely to let a soft or fluke goal affect his game. Rask has already demonstrated this new approach in the Bruins first regular season contest. As Haggerty notes, the Columbus Blue Jackets scored the game’s first goal, a floater from just inside the blue line, and would tally again later in the opening period, but Rask rebounded by stopping 21 of the final 22 shots he faced to earn the victory. Last season the outcome might have been different, but the work Rask put in on the mental aspect of the game paid off for one night at least.
Elsewhere in the NHL:
- While things didn’t end well in Edmonton for Nail Yakupov, the talented winger is off to a great start with St. Louis and he’s impressing his new head coach and teammates, according to Norm Sanders of the Belleville News-Democrat. Following a two-point performance in the Blues’ 3 – 2 win over Minnesota, Ken Hitchcock had this to say about his newest player: “Much better defensively than I thought. He’s got great outside speed. What I liked more than anything was his conscience. His conscience was there. We’re not trying to overwhelm him by having him do a bunch of things. We’re just going to keep it five on five for the first week to 10 days and see how much he can absorb there.” Veteran scoring forward Alex Steen has been impressed with Yakupov’s decision-making in the early going: “Smart decisions with the puck (and) he’s obviously individually very skilled and makes plays in tight areas. We’re happy to have him.” Yakupov has a ways to go to alter the negative reputation he earned as a member of the Oilers but so far he has done everything the Blues have asked for and may finally be on his way to fulfilling his vast potential.
- The Ducks, already without blue line stalwart Hampus Lindholm, who remains unsigned as a RFA, could be without fellow defenseman Simon Despres as well. Despres left Thursday’s game against the Stars with what is being called an “upper-body-injury,” and his status is unclear, as noted by Eric Stephens of The Orange County Register. Ducks GM Bob Murray said this about Despres: “He was not feeling good last night. We’re trying to figure out what’s going on with him. … Something’s wrong here and we’re going to get to bottom of it here.” Stephens relays that Murray also referenced Despres’ past issues with head injuries, which seems to hint that the Ducks are concerned this may in fact be another concussion.
Snapshots: Russell, Lucic, Ducks, Pardy, Rangers
Following yet another disappointing campaign for Edmonton in 2015-16, GM Peter Chiarelli orchestrated several changes to his team’s roster this offseason in an effort to build a playoff contender. Chiarelli dealt away two former first overall draft picks, Taylor Hall and Nail Yakupov (receiving Adam Larsson, a marginal prospect and a conditional draft choice in return), while signing free agents Milan Lucic and Kris Russell in free agency. Many in the hockey community at large weren’t particularly fond of Chiarelli’s moves and while it’s far too early to make any definitive judgement, through two games Lucic and Russell have done exactly what the Oilers and Chiarelli hoped for, as David Staples of the Edmonton Journal writes.
Staples has been tracking scoring chances for and against for every Oilers skater through two games. His research shows that Connor McDavid, who has simply been phenomenal already with six points on the young season, has been Edmonton’s best player by far, helping to generate better than six more scoring chances for than against, per 15 minutes of ice time. Lucic is second in that category with a differential of 4.82. Russell leads the defense corps with a 2.34 differential per 15 minutes of ice time. Incredibly, Russell has yet to make a single error leading to an opposition scoring chance through two games, based on Staples’ tracking.
Again, it’s too early to conclude anything for certain but the early returns on Lucic and Russell have to be encouraging for Chiarelli and Co. Obviously this team will only go as far as their superstar captain McDavid will lead, but should his two prized free agent acquisitions continue to perform at this level, Edmonton might yet prove the pundits wrong and compete for a playoff spot in 2016-17.
Elsewhere in the NHL:
- Could the Anaheim Ducks soon find themselves at a crossroads with a roster core too old to compete for a Stanley Cup? Eric Stepens, who covers the team, asks that question in a post that appears in the Los Angeles Daily News. Stephens notes that the team’s three best forwards, Ryan Getzlaf (31), Corey Perry (31) and Ryan Kesler (32) are all on the wrong side of 30. At the same time, many of the league’s top stars – Johnny Gaudreau (23), McDavid (19), Auston Matthews (19) – are in their early-20’s or even younger. Getzlaf, Perry and Kesler also account for $23.75MM, or nearly one-third of this year’s salary cap, now that Kesler’s massive extension kicked in. These commitments leaves less space for the Ducks to flesh out the rest of their roster with quality talent as evidenced by their struggles to reach agreements with restricted free agents Rickard Rakell and Hampus Lindholm.
- After being released from his PTO with Florida, Adam Pardy has agreed to sign an AHL deal with the Panthers organization, tweets Harvey Fialkov. Pardy will report to Springfield and provide an experienced blue line depth option for Florida. He has appeared in 338 NHL games over parts of eight seasons. Pardy previously has seen action in the league with Calgary, Buffalo, Edmonton, Dallas and Winnipeg.
- New York Rangers head coach Alain Vigneault was quite specific in how he put his forward lines together to start the 2016-17 campaign. By design, the team would ice three lines capable of scoring while the fourth line was to be comprised of “penalty killers and defensive specialists.” But after introducing rookies Pavel Buchnevich and Jimmy Vesey to the lineup, a couple of skilled veterans slid down the depth chart and onto the team’s fourth line. As Brett Cyrgalis of the New York Post writes, the presence of Brandon Pirri and Michael Grabner at the bottom of the Rangers lineup has already paid dividends for the Blue Shirts. Grabner, a once tallied 34 goals as a member of the Islanders, netted the first marker of the season for the Rangers. Pirri, meanwhile, assisted on Grabner’s goal and potted his first as a New York Ranger on the power play. As long as the duo remain defensively-responsible, their ability to put the puck in the net will be welcome on the teams fourth line.
Sabres Agree To Terms With Ristolainen
Buffalo Sabres GM Tim Murray has confirmed earlier reports that the team has signed Rasmus Ristolainen to a new contract, as John Vogl of The Buffalo News tweets. Terms of the new arrangement are unknown at this point.
Ristolainen developed into the team’s top blue liner in 2015-16, scoring nine goals with 32 helpers. The three-year veteran has tallied 19 goals and 65 points in 194 games during his career.
Bob McKenzie adds that the deal is for six years and worth an average of $5.4MM annually. He notes the contract is identical to the one recently agreed to between fellow right-handed defenseman Seth Jones and Columbus.
The signing leaves the Sabres with just a shade less than $2MM of cap space with 23 players under contract – 14 forwards, seven defensemen and two goalies – as Cap Friendly notes.
With Ristolainen under contract, only three prominent RFAs remain unsigned: Hampus Lindholm, Rickard Rakell and Jacob Trouba. Mckenzie speculates that the Ristolainen contract represents the absolute floor for Lindholm. It will be interesting to see whether this agreement helps push the negotiations between Lindholm and the Ducks any closer to a resolution.
Ducks Expected To Make Trade Once Rakell, Lindholm Sign
According to Bob McKenzie of TSN, the Anaheim Ducks are going to have to make a deal after completing contracts with their currently pending restricted free agents Rickard Rakell and Hampus Lindholm. As discussed on this site yesterday, Rakell isn’t any closer to a deal with the Ducks, however McKenzie does hear that the two sides are close on money and term and that it’s something else holding up the deal.
Either way, when Rakell and Lindholm come in for something around $9MM combined, the Ducks will be way over the cap and need to shed some salary. McKenzie says as much in a tweet today, in which he suggests that Cam Fowler will be the odd man out in Anaheim and be on the move while the ink is still drying.
If it is Fowler, one would imagine many teams would be after the 24-year old. The former first-round pick will have over 450 games in the NHL before his 25th birthday, bringing a mixture of youth and experience to whichever team lands him. Fowler is owed $8MM over the next two seasons, a fine number for a player who many would consider a top-4 defenseman. He’ll become an unrestricted free agent following the 2017-18 season, and be looking for a long-term deal.
The Ducks seemingly have painted themselves into a corner this summer, with the addition of Jonathan Bernier‘s deal. If Frederik Andersen being shipped to Toronto was a cost-saving measure, it has been completely undone by taking the former Leafs goaltender back. The Ducks are expected to start John Gibson for the majority of their games this season, despite making almost $2MM less than Bernier.
There is also the impending expansion draft, in which one of the Ducks young defenders is sure to be at risk, as the picture stands currently. If the team was to start moving pieces like Fowler out however, perhaps they’ll be able to keep their whole pipeline intact.
Rickard Rakell, Ducks Remain Far Away From Deal
While anything can change in an instant, it appears as though Rickard Rakell is no closer to a deal with the Anaheim Ducks. Julie Stewart-Binks of FOX Sports caught up with Rakell’s agent, who told her the two sides are still “not looking at things the same way”. This comes just days after a report that said no progress had been made in negotiations, despite both sides wanting a long-term deal done before the season starts.
Rakell, as discussed at length on this site, is one of the remaining restricted free agents without a contract for the upcoming season. While Johnny Gaudreau signed with the Flames today, and Nikita Kucherov seems poised to do the same with the Lightning when he arrives in North America, both Rakell and fellow RFA Hampus Lindholm remain unsigned by the Ducks.
While the team has almost $8.5MM in cap space at the moment, that probably isn’t enough for long-term deals for both players. Likely, the negotiations for the two players are linked, with the Ducks trying their best to get both under contract for as many years as possible without committing more dollars than they have at the moment. Since the team needs to be cap-compliant tomorrow, the two deals would need to come in under that $8.5MM to have them ready for the start of the regular season.
Rakell, 23, put up 43 points last season in what some would consider a mini-breakout. His goal scoring raised from nine in 2014-15 to twenty last year, and he took over as the number two center on the team, a role likely being held open for him until he comes to an agreement. With the Ducks poised for another deep run due to their strong defense corps and veteran first line, it would be a real shame to see the two players hold out for any length of time. After assuming all of Jonathan Bernier’s $4.15MM contract from the Maple Leafs in a trade earlier this summer, the team looks to have handcuffed itself when it comes to two of their most important pieces.
Friedman’s Latest: RFAs, Yakupov, Datsyuk
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman published his weekly 30 Thoughts column today and devoted a significant portion to the big name RFAs who remain unsigned. His first note was on Nikita Kucherov, whose agent – Scott Greenspun – Friedman believes has met with at least one club on the subject of an offer sheet. Due to Tampa’s precarious cap situation, both in the short and long term, the Lightning would be vulnerable to an offer sheet, particularly this close to the start of the regular season when all teams must be in cap compliance. The Lightning have roughly $5.5MM in available cap space but Kucherov may well be able to land significantly more than that from another club. GMs tend to steer clear of offer sheets for fear of angering their colleagues but Kucherov’s talent and track record might eventually prove too tempting for one manager to resist.
The full column is always worth the read but here are a few more key points from Friedman:
- With regards to Johnny Gaudreau, Friedman believes there has been progress made since the two sides met earlier this week. He also notes that negotiations could again reach a stalemate if and when the two sides have moved far enough. The key, Friedman says, is how many unrestricted free agent years the Flames will be buying out, suggesting the longer the term, the higher the AAV. Gaudreau has five years remaining before reaching free agency meaning a max, eight-year term would buy out three free agent seasons.
- There may be as many as six teams with serious interest in trading for Winnipeg Jets RFA defenseman Jacob Trouba. The scribe lists Buffalo, N.Y. Rangers, Detroit, Colorado, Boston and Arizona as the clubs looking at making a deal for the talented young blue liner. Of course given Winnipeg’s believed asking price – a left defenseman of similar ability and age – it’s difficult to fathom any of the aforementioned clubs being a match. Evidently that thought has also occurred to the Jets and that has prompted interested suitors to try to engage a third team to help meet Winnipeg’s demands. One obvious team that could facilitate a trade would be Anaheim as Friedman notes. The Ducks still have Hampus Lindholm to come to terms with and recently sent both Brandon Montour and Shea Theodore – two of the team’s top blue line prospects – to San Diego in the AHL. They certainly have the depth to meet Winnipeg’s needs.
- Apparently the Jets also asked Trouba’s camp to provide the numbers it would take to convince the 22-year-old to re-up in Winnipeg but they were told as long as the situation on the right side of the team’s defense remained the same that re-signing “wasn’t going to happen.”
- Friedman wonders whether the St. Louis Blues will employ the newly acquired Nail Yakupov as a power play specialist and if so, would they play him with two right-shooting forwards. He notes that Yakupov’s man-advantage shooting percentage with Edmonton was 14.8% when on the ice with at least two right-handed forwards and just 7.1% otherwise. The problem with the theory is that the Blues list just three forwards who fire the puck from the starboard side and of those, just David Perron is likely to see much power play time. St. Louis does have four right-handed blue liners so the coaching staff could get creative if they have in fact given any thought to Friedman’s suggestion.
- When the Arizona Coyotes agreed to take on the final year of Pavel Datsyuk‘s contract from Detroit, it was thought their primary motivation was moving up in the 2016 draft four slots to secure the rights to talented young blue liner Jakob Chychrun. Secondarily, Datsyuk’s $7.5MM cap charge would help the team exceed the cap floor. However, Friedman reports that first-year GM John Chayka had something else entirely in mind. With Datsyuk already committed to signing in the KHL, Chayka tried to convince St. Petersburg to allow the Coyotes to speak with two of their players, Yevgeni Dadonov (perhaps misidentified in Friedman’s post as Evgeny Davydov) and Vadim Shipachyov, in exchange for releasing Datsyuk’s rights. Obviously it didn’t work out for Chayka but it shows his willingness to look at outside-the-box for ways to upgrade his roster.
Clayton Stoner Clears Waivers; Stays With Ducks
After placing Clayton Stoner on waivers this week, the Anaheim Ducks were hoping a team would take a shot at the veteran defender and take the entirety of his cap hit off their hands. Instead, the 31-year old has cleared and will remain in camp according to Eric Stephens of the Orange County Register.
Stoner has become the odd man out in Anaheim after the development of their young defense corps, and is dead cap space for a team trying desperately to re-sign Hampus Lindholm and Rickard Rakell. The two young stars are still both without contracts as opening day approaches, with some believing that the team doesn’t have enough room to sign both to long-term deals.
The Anaheim blueline is very crowded even without Lindholm in camp however, as the team sent down two blue-chip prospects in Brandon Montour and Shea Theodore today. As discussed previously, the team will have to sort out the situation before next year’s expansion draft, or risk losing one of them for nothing.
Stoner for now will continue to skate in camp, and may perhaps find a spot on the team if Lindholm is not signed in time. More likely however, the veteran of 346 career NHL games will be buried in the AHL to save as much money as possible.
Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Gostisbehere, Dumoulin
Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated their respective negotiation processes.
Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency, unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we continue in the Metro.
Shayne Gostisbehere (Philadelphia): Gostisbehere exploded upon the scene in 2015-16, netting 17 goals and 46 points – in just 64 games – to lead all rookies in those categories. The former Union College defenseman quickly became one of the league’s most exciting blue liners and earned a spot on the Team North America entry in the World Cup.
The agents for this year’s top remaining unsigned RFA defenders – Hampus Lindholm and Rasmus Ristolainen – are pointing to the recently-signed and massive extension signed by Aaron Ekblad as the target. Ekblad of course inked an eight-year, $60MM deal with Florida and while Lindholm and Ristolainen are probably not at the level the Panthers blue liner is, they will still likely pocket something in the vicinity of $6MM annually when they finally sign.
Chances are Gostisbehere is also going to use the Ekblad deal as a comparable. Ekblad hasn’t produced offense at the same rate as Gostisbehere (0.72 PPG for “The Ghost” versus 0.47 PPG for Ekblad) but is a former #1 overall pick and projects as a perennial Norris Trophy candidate.
It’s likely the Lindholm and Ristolainen deals will actually serve as a better framework for a new contract for Gostisbehere. Assuming they each get something close to $6MM per, it’s fair to guess the Flyers young blue liner will also land in the same neighborhood.
Brian Dumoulin (Pittsburgh): Dumoulin tallied just 16 points in 79 contests and failed to net a single goal in 2015-16. Ordinarily those numbers wouldn’t be reflective of a guy who is going to cash in but Dumoulin showed in the postseason he has more to offer the Penguins. In 24 playoff games, Dumoulin scored two goals and eight points while averaging 21:31 of ice time per game. If he can carry over that level of play into the 2016-17 regular season, Dumoulin will surely be rewarded handsomely on his next contract.
A similar comparable could be Dmitry Orlov, who eventually signed a one-year deal with Washington worth $2.57MM. Orlov has clearly been a superior offensive producer, averaging 0.30 PPG during his career while Dumoulin has averaged just 0.19. But at 25, Dumoulin is just entering his prime and as we saw in the playoffs, he is capable of producing more offense in the right role. Currently he is listed opposite Kris Letang on the Penguins top blue line pair which could result in a higher point total for Dumoulin.
Even if Dumoulin doesn’t produce much offensively, there is still plenty of value in a steady and reliable performer on the back end. If both team and player elect for a one or two-year bridge deal, an AAV close to $2.5MM would seem fair. A long-term deal buying out free agent years could take the price up north of $3MM annually.