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East Notes: Kase, Reinhart, Varlamov, Frost

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The Boston Bruins will be without one of their top wingers as head coach Bruce Cassidy said that Ondrej Kase is doubtful for Monday’s game against the New York Islanders with an upper-body injury, according to Boston Hockey Now’s Joe Haggerty.

Kase took a high hit against the boards from New Jersey’s Miles Wood during the second period of Saturday’s game. Already with a history of concussions, the forward skated off the ice on his own, but was holding his face.

On a positive note, winger Craig Smith, out with a lower-body injury, is likely to be available on Monday. Smith did make his debut on Saturday, playing 17:07 of ice time and should find himself on the second line. Jake Debrusk is expected to move over to the right side and fill in on the team’s first line as well.

  • The Sabres were missing a pair of wingers in practice Sunday as Sam Reinhart was not at practice and remains questionable after suffering a lower-body injury Friday in a collision against the boards, according to the Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington. Reinhart was skating uncomfortably after going down awkwardly, but still played 21:25. The forward was moved to the top line during the game, giving that line better opportunities. The team was also missing Kyle Okposo, who hasn’t played a game yet this season and remains day-to-day with a lower-body injury.
  • While no update on the severity of the injury, The Athletic’s Arthur Staple reports that the injury that New York Islanders goaltender Semyon Varlamov suffered during warmups is a jaw issue, not a neck issue. The netminder took a shot that went underneath his mask and forced him to leave the ice. Rookie Ilya Sorokin got the start instead with veteran Cory Schneider serving as the backup.
  • With their lines developing chemistry, Philadelphia Flyers head coach Alain Vigneault said he’s not interested in rotating the lines after the injury to Sean Couturier. Therefore Morgan Frost, who was expected to step in for the Selke winner, will take over for Couturier and take over top-line centering duties and will play with Travis Konecny and Oskar Lindblom, according to Philadelphia Inquirer’s Sam Carchidi. “I think Morgan deserves this opportunity to play with TK and Oskar,” Vigneault said. “What went into our decision, also, was that the other lines are building some chemistry. … Instead of shuffling everything (he made just one move). Morgan is considered to be a skilled offensive player. I might as well put him in that role. With TK and Oskar, he’s playing with two pretty good players.”

Bruins Sign Craig Smith

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The Bruins have added some secondary scoring, announcing the signing of winger Craig Smith to a three-year contract.  The deal carries a cap hit of $3.1MM, a drop from his previous $4.25MM AAV.  Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports (Twitter link) that the contract breaks down as follows:

2020-21: $2MM
2021-22: $3MM
2022-23: $4.3MM

The 31-year-old is coming off a bit of a quieter season offensively but he still managed to put up 18 goals and 13 assists in 69 regular season games despite playing less than 14 minutes per game.  Prior to this contract, Smith had spent the entirety of his nine-year NHL career with the Predators, playing in 661 games.

The Bruins have long been on the hunt to add secondary scoring and Smith should be a strong fit in that role.  Despite the dip in point production in 2019-20, he has reached 18 goals in six of his last seven seasons, eclipsing the 20-goal mark in five of those.  For context, only three Boston players hit 20 goals a year ago in Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak, and Brad Marchand.  Smith should settle in on either the second or third line in Boston and give them another offensive boost beyond their top trio.

Smith checked in at 18th in our Top-50 UFA rankings with his deal coming in a bit lower than our projection of three years and $11MM.

Nashville Predators Will Not Re-Sign Mikael Granlund, Craig Smith

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The forward corps of the Nashville Predators will look a bit different next season. Not only is Nashville believed to be in the market for a top-six addition, but they also won’t be bringing back two of their top-nine forwards from this past season. Craig Smith, a career Predator, and Mikael Granlund, a big 2019 trade addition, will test the free agent market. GM David Poile tells Paul Skrbina of the Nashville Tennesean that the team will not re-sign either veteran forward.

In a relatively thin free agent market, Granlund and Smith will be two of the more sought-after names among available forwards. Granlund’s time in Nashville, spent recording just 35 points in 79 total games, did not go as expected for either side. However, Granlund was a premiere forward during his days with the Minnesota Wild, possessing 70-point upside and the versatility to play any position up front. At just 27 years old, a team looking to land a true top-six forward will likely be happy to take a shot on Granlund and hope the fit is better than it was in Nashville. In Smith, interested teams could land an aggressive, goal-scoring right wing. While Smith has shown 50+ point ability in the past, he is probably more of a 30-point player as he heads into his thirties. A strong possession player with great work ethic, Smith will be an excellent third-line option for a contender barring a negative effect of leaving the Predators system.

With the cap space saved by not extending Smith or Granlund, the Predators will have some flexibility to add another piece. However, Poile also stated that he is looking for some promotion from within. One option is another impending free agent, Colin Blackwell, who scored at an impressive clip in limited showings in the NHL and AHL this season. Poile confirmed to Skrbina that the team is currently negotiating with Blackwell and could reach a new deal. Frederick Gaudreau is another UFA-to-be who has solid AHL production and NHL experience. However, Blackwell and Gaudreau are both 27 and the team could look to go younger with their open roster spots. Poile mentions 23-year-old Rem Pitlick and 21-year-old Eeli Tolvanen as names likely to be given a long look at a regular role next season.

 

Craig Smith To Test Free Agency

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Craig Smith has spent the past nine seasons in Nashville but it appears as if he’ll be changing teams next month.   His agent Kevin Magnuson told Adam Vingan of The Athletic (subscription link) that the winger will be testing free agency when the market opens up on October 9th and that Smith is seeking a three-year deal.

The 31-year-old has been a part of the Predators organization since they selected him in the fourth round (98th overall) back in 2009.  They’ve certainly had an excellent return on their investment as he has played in 661 games for them which is good for fourth in franchise history while his 330 points are good enough for sixth all-time.

However, his production has tapered off a little bit as of late.  While he managed to get 51 points in 2017-18, it’s the only time in the past five seasons that he has reached 40.  This season, he played in 69 games, tallying 18 goals and 13 assists but perhaps more tellingly, his playing time dropped to just 13:25 per night, the lowest in his career.  His usage dipped a bit further in the playoffs as he logged only 12:49 per game in their four playoff contests while being held off the scoresheet.

Smith had a $4.25MM AAV on his deal for the last five seasons and while his recent production seemingly wouldn’t justify that price tag again in what should be a weakened free agent market, Magnuson seems to think that his client will be able to once again be in that range.

I think the number, because there are eight to 10 teams that have decent cap space, I think we won’t be too far off at the end of the day. He’s not going to be signing any blockbuster deals, but at the same time, he’s going to be in the market or a little bit above it, I think.

Nashville has just over $8MM in cap room at the moment but they have multiple roster spots both up front and on the back end to fill with that money.  If some of those players sign for close to the minimum, they should have enough cap space to re-sign Smith or add another veteran but for the time being at least, they’re not prepared to bring Smith back although Magnuson wouldn’t rule out a reunion once the veteran sees what his other options will be next month.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Snapshots: Lindblom, Pastrnak, Myers, Merzlikins, Predators

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There was quite the reaction when the Philadelphia Flyers opted to bring forward Oskar Lindblom with them into the bubble. The Flyers’ forward was diagnosed with Ewing’s sarcoma on Dec. 13, but has been treated and is training with the team. Despite it being unlikely that Lindblom was going to take the ice during the playoffs, that could conceivably change, according to Flyers head coach Alain Vigneault. Lindblom skated with the team Sunday and he intends to return for the playoffs, according to Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston.

Vigneault was unclear when Lindblom might return. “A couple of practices? A couple of weeks?”

Lindblom hasn’t played in a game since Dec. 7, but the 24-year-old was looking to have a career-best season with 11 goals and 18 points in 30 games. Of course, getting back into playoff-level shape could take him some time. The Flyers are currently tied at 1-1 with the Montreal Canadiens in the first-round of the playoffs, so it makes sense that the Flyers will need to at least advance one round if they hope to get Lindblom back into their lineup.

  • The Boston Bruins got some good news at an optional skate Sunday when winger David Pastrnak was on the ice with his team. The 24-year-old has only appeared in four playoff games thus far with as he has been termed “unfit to play.” Bruins head coach Bruce Cassidy said there is a chance that Pastrnak could play in Game 4 on Monday. “I’d say 50/50 I guess at best right now. Of course that could change over 24 hours,” said Cassidy (via Boston Globe’s Matt Porter).
  • TSN’s Matthew Sekeres reports that Vancouver Canucks defenseman Tyler Myers will miss Game 3 on Sunday with a shoulder injury, not a concussion like many thought. Whether he can return for Game 4, which immediately on Monday again, is unknown. Myers took an awkward hit from St. Louis’ Brayden Schenn in Game 2. There is talk that Jordie Benn could step in for Myers in the lineup, but since he missed some time for the birth of his child, he may not be ready to play. Other candidates are Olli Juolevi or Jack Rathbone.
  • The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline (subscription required) writes that Columbus Blue Jackets goaltender Elvis Merzlikins, who was “unfit to play” ever since the Game 4 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs, tweaked a groin muscle during the game, the same game in which he allowed three Maple Leafs’ goals in less than four minutes (plus the OT goal). Merzlikins will be out of the lineup indefinitely.
  • NHL.com’s Brooks Bratten reports that Nashville Predators general manager David Poile said he isn’t sure what will happen with their top two unrestricted free-agent forwards in Craig Smith and Mikael Granlund. The GM said he expects to communicate with their respective agents in the next couple of weeks to discuss potential contracts. However, with their cap situation looking dire next season, it’s unlikely the team will bring back both UFAs. Smith finished with 18 goals and 31 points, while Granlund finished with 17 goals and 30 points.

Trade Deadline Primer: Nashville Predators

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With the trade deadline now just a few days away, we will be taking a closer look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?  Next up is a look at the Nashville Predators.

It’s been an up-and-down year in Nashville for a team that had such high expectations. For a while, the team was floundering near the bottom of the Central Division. The team fired long-time head coach Peter Laviolette and replaced him with John Hynes. While the results have been slow-going, Nashville seems to be moving up in the standings. Suddenly, just one point out of a playoff spot, the Predators look like a team that could make a playoff run after all. That puts general manager David Poile in an interesting position at the trade deadline. Should he buy, stand still, or maybe even sell?

Record

30-23-8, fifth in the Central Division

Deadline Status

Slight Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$11.517MM in a full-season cap hit, 0/3 used salary cap retention slots, 45/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2020: NAS 1st, NJD 2nd, NAS 2nd, MIN 3rd, NAS 3rd, NAS 5th, NAS 6th
2021: NAS 1st, NAS 2nd, NAS 3rd, NAS 4th, NAS 5th, NAS 6th

Trade Chips

One name seen often as a trade deadline candidate is Mikael Granlund. The winger was brought over from Minnesota to give the team another experienced and gifted top-six forward. However, that hasn’t happened as he struggled with a goal and five assists in 16 games with the team last season. It wasn’t much better early on as he had six goals and 14 points through 35 games under Laviolette, which has had a lot to do with the rumors. However, Granlund seems to have found his game under Hynes. He has nine goals and three assists in those 20 games. Regardless, the 27-year-old who will be an unrestricted free agent next year, still may not be the best fit in Nashville’s system and could be a target for teams that believe he’d be a better fit in their system.

Craig Smith is a somewhat different story. Also a UFA next summer, Smith could be a potential trade candidate if the team feels they can’t re-sign him, although it’s just as possible that Nashville locks him up in the near future as well. Smith has turned it on of late with six goals in his past eight games. He could be part of a package for an upgrade, if the team is ready to move on from him.

The team could find itself bringing in help on defense as the team needs depth, especially with their third pairing. It wouldn’t be surprising if the team moved one of those defenders to send back for an upgrade on defense as well, such as Dan Hamhuis, Yannick Weber or Matt Irwin.

Nashville has most of their picks, but have two second and two third-rounders in this upcoming draft. That might be the ammunition to acquire a player they covet. The team also has a few prospects and while it’s unlikely they would move their top prospect forwards in Philip Tomasino, or Eeli Tolvanen there are a number of other prospects who could interest a team, such as forward Egor Afanasyev or defenseman Jeremy Davies in the right deal.

Five Players To Watch For: F Egor Afanasyev, F Mikael Granlund, D Dan Hamhuis, F Craig Smith, D Yannick Weber

Team Needs

1) Top-Four Defenseman: Despite having one of the best top-four pieces in the NHL before this season started, the Predators knew they here hoping for a lot when they traded P.K. Subban and handing his role to rookie Dante Fabbro. He has had an up-and-down year, but injuries to other members of the top-four, including Ryan Ellis, has forced their third pairing players to move into the top four at times, which has been a disaster, which means the team could really use another top-four blueliner and move Fabbro down a notch on the depth chart. Many feel that New Jersey’s Sami Vatanen could be a good fit here.

2) Upgrade In Top-Six: The Predators have two potential unrestricted free agents in Granlund and Smith coming up and with cap considerations, they might be better off packaging them to another team in hopes of getting a forward with term that can help them both this year and in the future.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Nashville’s Austin Watson Moved From Healthy Scratch To First Line

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It has now been a week and a half since John Hynes replaced Peter Laviolette as the head coach of the Nashville Predators. In that time, it has been a mixed bag of results. Hynes lost his debut mere hours after his hire became official, but it came at the hands of the Boston Bruins, one of the league’s best teams. The Predators then scored a convincing win over the Chicago Blackhawks and a hard fought two points against the Winnipeg Jets. Just when it looked like the coaching change could be paying immediate dividends, Nashville dropped their past two games to the Edmonton Oilers and Anaheim Ducks.

Hynes has apparently decided that major lineup changes may be in order to get the team to play up to their expectations and he plans to begin those experiments on Saturday night against the Buffalo Sabres. After already demoting Viktor Arvidsson to the third line, Hynes is set to roll out another major lineup change. Austin Watson goes from healthy scratch for four of the five games of Hynes’ young tenure to the first line, joining Ryan Johansen and Calle Jarnkrok. He replaces Craig Smith, who is set to fall all the way to the fourth line with Kyle Turris and Colin Blackwell, with Yakov Trenin getting the healthy scratch due to Watson’s addition.

Hynes’ thinking with this move may not be as focused on offense as it is on defense. In fact, while many Nashville forwards have been disappointing on an individual basis this season, the team is tied for eighth in the NHL in goals for per game. The same can’t be said for goals against, where the Predators are ranked 24th. Nashville simply has not been a difficult team to play against this season and the loss of Colton Sissons has only exasperated that fact. There has been an obvious lack of physical response and energy from the forward group many nights. As they struggle to get a more balanced, two-way effort out of their forwards, Hynes may be hoping that a refreshed Watson, who leads the team in hits by a wide margin despite sitting six games (and Sissons is in second) can add some punch to the top line. Meanwhile, Smith can bring some experience and scoring threat to the fourth line, where maybe he can even get Turris re-energized.

Perhaps more important than strategy is that this moves by Hynes sends a message that no one’s role is safe under the new coach. The effort has to improve and no one is irreplaceable if they don’t perform. If the team continues to lose, don’t be surprised to see GM David Poile send the same message to his roster by the trade deadline.

Minimal Talks Between Nashville And Their Pending UFAs

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The Predators presently have nine players on their active roster that are slated to become unrestricted free agents at the end of the season.  Three of those players – defenseman Roman Josi plus wingers Mikael Granlund and Craig Smith – are impact pieces for Nashville but as Craig Custance of The Athletic reports (subscription required), talks about extensions have been limited thus far.

Understandably, their primary focus is getting a deal done with Josi, their captain.  He’s currently playing on one of the best bargain contracts in the league with a $4MM cap charge which is well under market value for someone that has recorded at least 40 points and averaged more than 24 minutes per night over each of the last six seasons.  He’s off to a flying start in 2019-20 as well with 10 points in as many games while once again logging more than 24 minutes of ice time per contest.  While the 29-year-old has suggested in the past that he’s open to taking a bit of a discount to stay with the Predators, he should still at least be doubling his current AAV on a new deal.  There was some discussion going back to the offseason but it doesn’t seem as if a lot of progress was made.

Granlund is in his first full season with Nashville and that in itself is stalling contract talks as both sides are still evaluating the fit.  He wasn’t overly productive after being acquired from Minnesota at the deadline last season (just two goals and five assists in 23 games between the regular season and playoffs) and is off to a slow start this season as well with two goals and two helpers in ten games.  However, he isn’t far removed from back-to-back 67-plus point seasons in 2016-17 and 2017-18 and his ability to play center (despite being used predominantly on the wing with the Predators) makes him one of the more prominent forwards that will be available.  Custance suggests that if the team can find a way to get out of Kyle Turris’ contract ($6MM through 2023-24), that might help get talks for Granlund, who carries a $5.75MM AAV, going.

As for Smith, his performance over the years has been a bit more erratic.  There are times where he looks like a legitimate top liner but others where he has produced at the level of a third liner.  He’s not off to a great start this season either with just a goal and an assist.  Nonetheless, with five seasons of 20 goals or more under his belt, he should be in line for a raise on his current $4.25MM cap hit.  Custance mentions that Smith loves it in Nashville and would likely be willing to sign for under market value to stay there but at this time, both sides appear to be okay with letting the season play out and evaluate things at the end of the season.

Other pending unrestricted free agents in Nashville include wingers Auston Watson, Miikka Salomaki, and Rocco Grimaldi as well as blueliners Dan Hamhuis, Matt Irwin, and Yannick Weber.  With that many players needing new contracts, GM David Poile will certainly have his work cut out for him over the coming months.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Nashville Predators

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Nashville Predators

Current Cap Hit: $80,165,476 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Dante Fabbro (two years, $925K)
F Rem Pitlick (one year, $925K)
F Eeli Tolvanen (two years, $894K)

Potential Bonuses

Tolvanen: $2.85MM
Fabbro: $850K

The team has a few players with entry-level contracts who could make an immediate impact. Fabbro is the obvious one, especially after the team traded away P.K. Subban to New Jersey in a cap-saving move. Fabbro, the team’s first-round pick in 2016, finally signed in late March after three seasons at Boston University, playing in four regular season games, followed by six playoff games, combining for one goal and two points in amongst those 10 games. Now with Subban gone, the team has to hope that Fabbro will be ready to immediately take over the open top-four spot in the team’s defense. If not the team could have some issues at that spot. The team also inked Pitlick, the team’s third-rounder in 2016, after three years at the University of Minnesota. After tallying 47 goals in three years, the team hopes that Pitlick can make his mark on the team immediately.

Tolvanen, who dominated in the KHL at 18 years of age, failed to make the Predators team last year and spent most of his season with the Milwaukee Admirals in the AHL, scoring 15 goals and 35 points in 58 games and will try to force his way into the Predators lineup this year with a good training camp.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Mikael Granlund ($5.75MM, UFA)
F Craig Smith ($4.25MM, UFA)
D Roman Josi ($4MM, UFA)
D Dan Hamhuis ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Austin Watson ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Rocco Grimaldi ($1MM, UFA)
F Miikka Salomaki ($750K, UFA)
F Daniel Carr ($700K, UFA)
D Matt Irwin ($675K, UFA)
D Yannick Weber ($675K, UFA)
F Frederick Gaudreau ($667K, UFA)

The most well documented story is the Predators’ desire to lock up Josi to a long-term deal. The 29-year-old has proven to be an excellent defensive blueliner, but has also shown off quite a bit of offense, putting up 40 or more points for the past six seasons, including a 56-point performance last year. Josi has indicated that he wants to stay in Nashville, but evidently is waiting to see how the restricted free agent market pans out before signing any deal.

With significant cap issues coming up over the next few years, the Predators will have to make key decisions on what they want to do with Granlund and Smith. Nashville acquired Granlund at the trade deadline last year, swapping a younger Kevin Fiala for the 27-year-old, who will be a free agent at the end of the season. Granlund, who scored 47 goals in his two previous seasons, stepped back last year, scoring just 16 goals last season and only one of those in 16 games with Nashville. If Granlund can return to his 25-goal ways, the Predators are likely to find a way to keep him in the future, but another poor season could end their relationship early. Smith is a different situation. He’s been a 20-goal scorer for five of his last six seasons, but will be 31 when he signs his next deal. The question is whether the team wants to lock him up when he’s on the wrong side of 30.

Most of the other players listed here are depth options, with a number of bottom-pairing forwards and defensemen.

Two Years Remaining

G Pekka Rinne ($5MM, UFA)
F Nick Bonino ($4.1MM, UFA)
G Juuse Saros ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Steven Santini ($1.42MM, RFA)

The next two years could be the final two for Rinne, who will be 38 at that time. The veteran goaltender and Vezina Trophy winner put up another impressive season last year with a 30-19-4 record and a .918 save percentage. He will likely carry the load for the next two years, but Saros, the team’s goaltender of the future, will likely see more and more games before taking over as the Predators’ No. 1 goaltender in 2021-22. Saros played 31 games last season and while posting a 2.62 GAA, he did sport a .915 save percentage and should eventually get an extension.

Bonino was brought in from Pittsburgh to be the team’s third-string center and jumpstart the team’s bottom-six. He has done that, but also has found himself dropped down to the fourth line in the meantime and at $4.1MM, that’s a lot of money to be paying a bottom-line player. The only long-term hope, is that room is made so that Bonino, who posted 17 goals and 35 points last season, can return to his third-line role eventually.

Three Years Remaining

F Filip Forsberg ($6MM, UFA)
D Mattias Ekholm ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Calle Jarnkrok ($2MM, UFA)

The team has a solid bargain going with Forsberg making just $6MM per season. The Predators have gotten impressive production out of the winger, who posted 28 goals and 50 points last season (surprisingly his worst season of his career so far) and there is still hope that the 25-year-old may take his game up another notch and return to his 30-goal, 60-point mark that he has reached twice in his career or even take his game even further. However, the skilled winger remains an impressive player at a reasonable price for the next three years.

Ekholm may be the biggest bargain of the lot as the 29-year-old is one of the most underrated players in the league, showing off great defensive skill as well as posting 40 points for the first time in his career last year. Ekholm scored eight goals and 44 points last year and at under $4MM, the team has a cheap top-four player for quite a few years to come. Jarnkrok also gives the team a discounted player as the depth winger is a solid value at just $2MM per year.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Matt Duchene ($8MM through 2025-26)
F Ryan Johansen ($8MM through 2024-25)
D Ryan Ellis ($6.25MM through 2026-27)
F Kyle Turris ($6MM through 2023-24)
F Viktor Arvidsson ($4.25MM through 2023-24)
F Colton Sissons ($2.86MM through 2025-26)

The team had to finally pay out to get themselves the No. 2 center that they desired. They thought they did that a few years ago when the traded for Turris and extended him, but so far that match hasn’t been what the team hoped for. However, after moving out Subban, the team had enough cap room to replace him on the roster with their biggest need, which will be filled by Duchene, who should be the perfect top-six center the team has coveted for year. Duchene is coming off a 31-goal, 70-point season and if he can continue to post numbers like that should be a solid value as well at $8MM per year. Turris, on the other hand, now moves down to the third-line center position and the team has high hopes that the 30-year-old will rebound from a seven-goal, 23-point disappointment last year. However, after a solid showing at the World Championships this summer, the team hopes he can rebound.

It’s hard to believe that people talk about the Nashville defense constantly, but only one of them is signed longer than three years. However, Ellis signed his long-term deal, which looks like a bargain for the team. The 28-year-old broke 40 points for the first time in his career and with his exceptional defense, is going to be a key member of their blueline for a long time.

Johansen’s goals have been down since coming over from Columbus, but he continues to be a dominant passer and put up a career high in assists this year with 50 as well as 64 points, the second-best of his career. The 27-year-old should only get better. Arvidsson is also locked up long-term as the 26-year-old scored a career-high 34 goals last season and has proven to be a top-line winger and even looks like a bargain at $4.25MM. Sissons also was just recently signed to a long-term, seven-year contract at a low price as the team believes he should be part of their bottom-six for a long time.

 

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Ekholm
Worst Value: Turris

Looking Ahead

The Nashville Predators have been put together impressively, using their no-tax situation to their advantage as players have made it clear that they want to stay in Nashville. The team has a solid core, but after a disappointing playoffs, the team must prove that they can return to their old dominance, especially in a challenging division like the Central, and continue to be one of the top teams in the league. Adding another top-six center should help and if they can get the most out of their players, the Predators should be a dominant team for years, but if head coach Peter Laviolette can’t get some of his players to take the next step in their development, they may be in trouble too.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Arbitration Notes: Departures, Capitals, Sabres

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It’s no secret that salary arbitration is not a friendly process. If a player does make it all the way through the hearing, that means that they’ve sat through a presentation by their own team about just how bad they are compared to other similar players. While teams and players often use the threat of the unknown of an arbitrator’s decision to move contract talks along, the potential unpleasantness of a hearing is also plenty of motivation to come to terms. Case in point: Colorado’s Sheldon Dries, who today settled on a one-year, two-way contract worth $735K. Dries’ contract comes in just $35K above the absolute worst possible outcome in an arbitration hearing, yet he opted not to argue his case in hopes of a better outcome. Why? Likely to avoid the breakdown in a relationship between he and the Avalanche if the hearing got ugly. It’s more common than it may seem – The Athletic’s Craig Custance crunched the numbers and found that the vast majority of players who go through an arbitration hearing end up leaving that team, one way or another.

Over the past ten years, 27 players have gone into a hearing. Not all of those players required an arbitrator’s award, but any resulting settlements still came after the unfortunate back-and-forth. Of those 27 players, Custance found that 14 were on new teams within a year and 21 were on new teams within three years. All of last summer’s cases – Winnipeg’s Jacob Trouba, Ottawa’s Cody Ceci, Calgary’s Brett Kulak, and Dallas’ Gemel Smith – are on new teams now. In fact, of the 27 players who have reached a hearing since 2009, no player before 2015 remains on the team that the faced off with and only four players since still remain on good terms with their club: Nashville’s Craig Smith and Viktor Arvidsson, Washington’s Braden Holtby, and Vegas’ Nate Schmidt. This all goes to show that arbitration can be a dangerous method of negotiating for teams, even if the goal is to settle before an arbitrator’s decision. The numbers convincingly imply that an arbitration hearing is the death knell for a player’s relationship with his team. As far as this off-season goes, this analysis doesn’t bode well for Andrew Copp and the Jets, Christian Djoos and the Capitals, and Evan Rodrigues and the Sabres, all of whom not only went to hearings already this summer, but whose awards all favored the team more so than the player. With ten potential cases still to go, there could be even more players who one day look back at this off-season as the beginning of the end.

  • The Capitals may very well end up back in front of an arbitrator before long, with a case against forward Chandler Stephenson scheduled for August 1st. Although the decision in the Djoos case – a $1.25MM award against a $1.35MM midpoint – favored the team, it still puts them in a difficult situation regarding the salary cap and eliminates some hope that a resolution with Stephenson could come prior to a hearing. Washington is currently more than $300K over the salary cap ceiling after signing Djoos. While young defenseman Jonas Siegenthaler can be returned to the AHL without the threat of waivers for a $714K drop to get under the cap, it would leave the Capitals with just six defensemen. All of Washington’s 14 NHL forwards, including Stephenson, would be subject to waivers, although the team would likely want to carry that many forwards anyway. It’s a difficult conundrum not made any easier by the unknown of Stephenson’s contract either. The 25-year-old forward recorded 18 points in 67 games in 2017-18 and another 11 points in 62 games this past season. He will likely seek a salary of $1MM or more, a number that Washington simply cannot palate. Asked who the team would choose if faced with a choice between trading away Djoos or Stephenson to open up cap space and roster flexibility, NBC Sports’ J.J. Regan did not hesitate to say that Stephenson would be the one dealt. Defense is in short supply for the Capitals and Djoos is a proven starter. Stephenson on the other hand would be an expendable piece in a deep forward corps. It may not matter though, as moving Stephenson alone is unlikely to be a sufficient answer to Washington’s cap troubles.
  • If you think the Capitals having two cases is bad, wait until you hear about the Sabres. Like Washington, Buffalo has already been through one hearing this summer with forward Evan Rodrigues, landing a $2MM award against a $2.075MM midpoint. It was somewhat of a surprising decision and may have given GM Jason Botterill and company some confidence moving forward. That could wind up being a problem for all parties involved, as three of the remaining ten scheduled cases are also Sabres players: forward Remi Elie, goalie Linus Ullmark, and defenseman Jake McCabe. If Buffalo goes to hearing with even one more of these players, never mind all three, it could be a bad look for the organization and could cause a breakdown in numerous player relationships. However, if the team continues to win their arbitration battles, it would be a major help this season, as the team has just over $3MM in cap space left to sign the trio. It’s a long-term risk for a short-term gain for the Sabres.

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