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Islanders Notes: Dobson, Nelson, Pettersson

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According to a report by Jim Biringer from RG.com, and further elaborated by Stefen Rosner of The Hockey News, which was later shared by the NHL Network, the New York Islanders may be approaching the trade deadline in an unexpected way. Biringer noted that the Islanders are making defenseman Noah Dobson available for trade, while also offering Brock Nelson a three-year contract extension.

It’s a strange development for a team that has gone 8-2-0 in their last 10 and has vaulted back into the playoff conversation in the Eastern Conference. Dobson is arguably the most offensively talented defenseman on the team, won’t become an unrestricted free agent until after the 2026-27 season assuming he doesn’t sign a long-term extension, and is only one year removed from scoring 70 points.

Assuming accurate reporting, Dobson would receive a higher-value return as a young right-handed shooting defenseman. Still, there’s no arguing he’s fallen short of expectations this year. Dobson has scored six goals and 24 points in 46 games for the Islanders this season and a lower-body injury will keep him out of the action until after the 4 Nations Face-Off.

No matter the depressed offensive output or recent injury it would still make little sense for New York to move on from Dobson. They are the fourth-oldest team in the NHL this season and haven’t made it beyond Round One of the Stanley Cup playoffs since the 2020-21 season. Dobson’s ability to score and more than respectable defensive metrics strike as a player the Islanders should invest in long-term — not consider moving.

Keeping Nelson around wouldn’t make them any younger either. A three-year extension would take Nelson to his age-36 season in 2027-28. He’s been a consistent top-six center in New York for over a decade scoring 291 goals and 564 points in 894 career games with the Islanders.

Unless New York continues their winning ways after the 4 Nations Face-Off break, MoneyPuck only gives them a 33.5% of making the postseason. Nelson has been mentioned in trade rumors nearly the entire season and the Islanders could get a valuable return for one of the best rental centers on the market.

Rosner also alluded to another trade target for the Islanders this morning. He reported there’s “a lot of smoke” regarding Vancouver Canucks’ center Elias Pettersson despite the team trading away center J.T. Miller.

New York has been linked to Pettersson over the last couple of months but much of the overall trade interest has died down since Miller was sent to the New York Rangers. Rosner makes a good point that Pettersson only has one year remaining without trade protection but the Canucks could theoretically wait until the 2025 NHL Draft to move him. It would be reasonable for Vancouver to see how Pettersson responds for the rest of the regular season before ultimately taking a firmer stance on his future with the organization.

At any rate, plenty of trade rumors are leaking from a front office that typically doesn’t appreciate them. Lou Lamoriello has deployed ’smoke-and-mirror’ tactics leading up to deadline day in the past but he doesn’t appear to have a concrete direction for the organization’s future.

Snapshots: Islanders, Marchment, Kaprizov, Roest

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There has been plenty of speculation in recent weeks about whether the Islanders might consider moving veterans Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri by the March 7th trade deadline.  However, speaking with reporters today including Newsday’s Andrew Gross, GM Lou Lamoriello indicated that the concept is “not even a thought in my mind right now”.  Both players are pending unrestricted free agents and New York went into today’s action in last in the Metropolitan Division, only two points up on Buffalo who sat last in the Eastern Conference coming into tonight.  That said, the second Wild Card spot is still within striking distance so don’t expect Lamoriello to even consider selling for a while yet.

Elsewhere around the hockey world:

  • In a recent appearance on The Ticket (audio link), Stars head coach Peter DeBoer indicated that winger Mason Marchment is still at least a couple of weeks away from returning to the lineup. He’s working his way back from a head injury that DeBoer specified were fractures in his nose and facial area.  The 29-year-old was off to a solid start before getting injured, tallying 12 goals and 15 assists along with 44 hits in his first 33 games.
  • While the Wild were once again without top winger Kirill Kaprizov tonight, a return could be on the horizon. Michael Russo of The Athletic relays (Twitter link) that Kaprizov has skated for the last two days and that there’s a chance he will travel with the team for their upcoming two-game road trip if there’s a possibility he can play in one of the games.  The 27-year-old was off to a flying start before sustaining a lower-body injury that has kept him out since the holiday break.  Kaprizov has 23 goals and 27 assists in 34 games so far, good for ninth in league scoring despite being out for more than two weeks now.
  • While Predators prospect Austin Roest is eligible to play in the minors this season, WHL Everett announced that Nashville has informed them that they will return him to junior once he recovers from his injury sustained back in training camp. The 20-year-old was a sixth-round pick in 2023 and has already signed his entry-level deal.  Roest has surpassed the 70-point mark in the last two seasons with the Silvertips and will get a final few months with them before turning pro next season.

Islanders’ Brock Nelson Unlikely To Sign Extension

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Brock Nelson’s 12-year tenure on Long Island will likely end by the time next summer rolls around. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic writes Thursday that he believes Nelson “intends to test free agency on July 1,” upping the likelihood of the Islanders dealing the pending unrestricted free agent by the trade deadline if they don’t put themselves back in playoff position by then.

Nelson’s production hasn’t been what we’re used to seeing from him in 2024-25. With 10 goals and 20 points through 35 games, he’s on pace for 47 points over an 82-game schedule. On a per-game basis, that would be his worst offensive showing since the 2017-18 campaign. Given he’s now 33 years old, there’s also legitimate concern whether he can recapture the form that led to three straight 30-goal seasons from 2021-22 to 2023-24.

Part of that decline has been fueled by an 11% shooting rate, which would be decent for many players but abnormally low by Nelson’s standards. Throughout his 875-game NHL career, he’s usually hovered around his career average of 14.2% without much variation. He’s tracking to shoot at his lowest success rate since his first two seasons in the league. It’s also been fueled by a 12-game goalless skid, during which he has just three assists. He had 10 goals and 17 points through his first 24 outings before ending up at today’s totals.

But with the Islanders two games back of .500 and coming off perhaps their worst game of the season right before the holiday break, a 7-1 drubbing at home at the hands of the Sabres, whether they’ll be in playoff position by deadline day is becoming less of a debate. MoneyPuck puts the Isles’ playoff odds at 5.8% at the time of writing, Hockey Reference gives them a 10.4% shot, while The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn gives them a far more optimistic 34% chance, boosted by a weak middle-of-the-pack group in this year’s Metropolitan Division.

That means there’s likely too much runway left in the Islanders’ season for general manager Lou Lamoriello to throw in the towel. If history is any indicator, that’s a necessary prerequisite for the club to seriously consider trading Nelson instead of trying to hammer out a deal up until July 1. On the other hand, Nelson said during training camp that he was open to having in-season talks about an extension. Either Those haven’t happened or they haven’t been particularly productive, evidently leading him to focus on his options over the summer.

And if he’s genuinely intent on testing the market, not just finding a new home, that’ll impact his trade value by the deadline. Even at Nelson’s age, Lamoriello won’t be able to land a huge return for him without a team being reasonably confident they’ll retain him for more than just a few months. Nelson also holds a 16-team no-trade list, so if there’s a buyer he’s not interested in joining, he could veto those deals.

LeBrun and Chris Johnston speculated that the Stars and Wild are potential deadline destinations for Nelson. Both also make sense as free-agent landing spots. Minnesota could likely only acquire Nelson at 50% retention ($3MM cap hit) without moving out a salary. Still, they have over $13MM in cap space opening up this summer, thanks to the reduction of the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyout penalties. That figure doesn’t include a projected salary cap increase of at least $4MM, making them well-positioned to have productive extension talks with star Kirill Kaprizov, who’s set to become a UFA in 2026 while being one of the most prominent players on this summer’s UFA market. Nelson, whose age and declining production likely don’t warrant a raise on his current $6MM cap hit on a short-to-mid-term deal, would complement Joel Eriksson Ek and Marco Rossi down the middle quite nicely and would likely have interest in returning to his home state. The Stars, meanwhile, project to have far more financial flexibility at the trade deadline but less so over the summer.

Brock Nelson Open To In-Season Extension Talks

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Many players across the league prefer not to engage in extension discussions when the regular season gets underway, wanting to solely focus on their on-ice performance and not the off-ice situation.  That doesn’t appear to be the case for Islanders center Brock Nelson, however, who indicated to reporters including Ethan Sears of the New York Post that he’s open to having in-season negotiations about a new deal.

The 32-year-old has become a much more impactful player offensively over the past three seasons.  Before then, his career bests were 26 goals and 54 points but since 2021-22, he has notched at least 34 goals and 59 points in each of the last three years.  Last season, Nelson had 34 goals and 35 assists while averaging a little over 18 minutes a night while adding two goals and two helpers in five postseason appearances.

There’s a case to be made that Nelson’s contract has become a team-friendly one as it stands to reason that if he was a free agent this summer coming off three straight 30-goal years, he could have landed more than his current $6MM price tag on a multi-year deal.

However, Sears suggests that the prudent move for the team at this point would be to hold off on those discussions for a while.  If the team falters and finds themselves in a selling position, they could be positioned to cash in nicely on Nelson who would quite likely be one of the top rental centers available (though there is a 16-team no-trade clause they’d need to contend with).  Meanwhile, given that a breakout this late in his career isn’t generally typical, it’s also prudent for the Isles to see if Nelson can continue at this rate of production or if he’ll start to slow down.

It should be noted that the Islanders already have nearly $66MM in commitments for next season on the books to only 13 players, per PuckPedia.  That’s not impossible to work around but another contract at or around Nelson’s current price tag would mean that a lot of those remaining spots would need to be filled by low-cost players.  And with Noah Dobson heading for a substantial raise on his current $4MM AAV and Alexander Romanov ($2.5MM) also heading for an increase, things could get very tight on their books very quickly even with a projected 5% increase in the salary cap.

With all that in mind, while Nelson would probably like to get a deal done sooner than later even if it comes in-season, that probably isn’t going to be happening for the foreseeable future.

New York Notes: Wahlstrom, Nelson, Trouba, Barbashev

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Breaking down a variety of Islanders topics in a mailbag published Thursday, Arthur Staple of The Athletic believes a waiver placement is the most likely option for winger Oliver Wahlstrom when training camps wrap up in a couple of months.

The Isles avoided an arbitration hearing with Wahlstrom last month, settling with the RFA on a one-year, $1MM contract. But it was clear at the time that the settlement didn’t necessarily mean he’d be back in an Islanders uniform next season.

Islanders general manager Lou Lamoriello has been shopping the 2018 11th overall pick as far back as the June draft, but Staple believes offers for the winger have “been tepid at best.” He also says that Wahlstrom likely doesn’t have a path to regular bottom-six minutes under head coach Patrick Roy, but that he also “would need to have an incredible camp to secure a top-six spot.” His trade value will remain the same if he sticks in the press box, and the Isles don’t have the cap flexibility to routinely make a seven-figure cap hit player a healthy scratch. For that reason, if Wahlstrom finds his way out of Long Island in the coming weeks, it’ll likely be on the waiver wire.

Here’s more from the New York teams:

  • The Isles have a bevy of crucial pending free agents, namely second-line center Brock Nelson. Staple believes they’d consider shopping Nelson before the trade deadline “if they’re well out of [the playoff race],” but if they opt to work on an extension, it’ll likely result in a long-term deal to keep his cap hit down. The cap-strapped Isles also need to ink star blue liner Noah Dobson to a new deal next summer – he’s a pending RFA. Nelson turns 33 in October, so a seven or eight-year extension would take him into his 40s.
  • Last month, the dust largely settled on a hectic summer for Rangers captain Jacob Trouba with a report that he was likely to remain with the Blueshirts this season after a heavy dose of trade rumors. The 30-year-old, who has two years left on his contract with a hefty $8MM cap hit, told The Athletic’s Peter Baugh that he’s happy to remain with New York and excited for the upcoming campaign. “It’s part of the business,” Trouba said. “I knew that part of my contract turned this year (to a no-trade list), and I submitted a list. That’s what I did. All the other noise was pretty much noise.” The defender also dispelled any notion that there was a rift between he and Rangers GM Chris Drury, saying communication with the entire front office was “great the whole time” throughout the summer.
  • The Rangers no longer own the signing rights to 2022 fifth-round pick Maxim Barbashev, but he’s staying in the organization on a one-year contract with the AHL’s Hartford Wolf Pack, the team announced today. The 20-year-old winger is coming off a disappointing fourth junior campaign in which he was limited to 35 points in 59 games between the QMJHL’s Moncton Wildcats and Shawinigan Cataractes. His signing rights lapsed after he wasn’t signed to an entry-level contract by the Blueshirts before June 1, but he’ll now get a bit of runway with Hartford to prove he can adjust to the pro game.

Metro Notes: Joseph, Islanders, Gudbranson, Kakko

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Having been on the injured reserve since November 18th, it appears that defenseman for the Pittsburgh Penguins, Pierre-Olivier Joseph, is healthy enough to return, as the team announced they have sent Joseph on a conditioning loan to their AHL affiliate, the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins. He will now be in the AHL for a maximum of 14 days, meaning he will have the opportunity to play in five games in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton.

Last season, Joseph looked to have finally cracked the Penguins roster full-time, playing in 75 games and scoring five goals and 21 points. He did spend a couple of games factoring into Pittsburgh’s powerplay, while also providing solid possession and defensive metrics as well.

With fellow defenseman Chad Ruhwedel set to miss a few weeks with a lower-body injury, the Penguins could certainly use the return of Joseph as soon as possible. Even upon return, with Pittsburgh already carrying a more than adequate top-four in their defensive core, the return of Joseph will allow the team to be more comfortable giving their bottom-pairing important minutes of the game.

Other notes:

  • Although the two did play in the New York Islanders’ most recent game only three days ago, forward Brock Nelson and defenseman Noah Dobson were absent in yesterday’s practice and were listed as day-to-day with undisclosed concerns. Nevertheless, the team announced today that both players would be in the lineup for tonight’s game, while also indicating that defenseman Sebastian Aho is close to making his return as well. It is positive news for New York, who even though it might only be for a game or two, can not afford to miss two of their better offensive players.
  • Team reporter for the Columbus Blue Jackets, Jeff Svoboda, reports that defenseman Erik Gudbranson will be a game-time decision for the team’s game tonight against the Los Angeles Kings, as he is suffering from an illness. Mostly known as a defensive-style defenseman, even with less ice time per night, Gudbranson is producing better offensively this year for the Blue Jackets, scoring two goals and nine points in 26 games.
  • Missing the last three games for the New York Rangers with an undisclosed injury, it does not appear forward Kaapo Kakko is close to a return. After practice today, Mollie Walker of the New York Post reported that Kakko has not yet resumed skating. After seemingly having a breakout season last year, Kakko is once again failing to produce up to his draft selection, scoring one goal and three points through 20 games this season.

Islanders Notes: Nelson, AHL Goalie Depth, Salo

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The past few seasons have been a bumpy ride for the New York Islanders, plagued by injuries and inconsistency. It’s kept them from making any deep playoff runs, something they did with relatively high frequency throughout the late 2010s and early 2020s.

One player who hasn’t let any outside noise affect him is center Brock Nelson. He’s recorded career-best offensive totals in each of the last two seasons, eclipsing the 35-goal mark for the first time in 2021-22 and the 70-point mark for the first time in 2022-23. With Nelson locked in for just two more seasons at a rather affordable $6MM cap hit, some had wondered if his name could be in trade talks with the Islanders’ roster tight to the salary cap. Today, however, The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz shut down all speculation of a move in his latest mailbag, calling any trade rumors involving Nelson “utter nonsense.”

Many people didn’t have Nelson transforming into a number-one center overnight in his 30s on their bingo cards, but that’s exactly what’s happened. He’s one of the team’s most valuable forwards, often overlooked in favor of higher-profile names like Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal. His role next season will be to help boost the production of the team’s better secondary scorers like Kyle Palmieri and Pierre Engvall, a line that was rather effective down the stretch of the 2022-23 regular season.

More from Kurz on some pressing Islanders topics today:

  • The Islanders’ weakest position when it comes to organizational depth is inarguably goaltending. While the team boasts one of the best NHL-level tandems in Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov, their minor-league netminding leaves much to be desired, and Kurz notes the Islanders are absolutely still in the market for a veteran third-string goaltender. Currently, the starting job in AHL Bridgeport is slated for 23-year-old Jakub Skarek, who’s yet to post above a .896 save percentage throughout four seasons in the minors. Kurz names Jaroslav Halak, Brian Elliott, Martin Jones, and Alex Stalock as options with notable NHL experience still looking for a home who may have to settle for a minor-league role.
  • One player who went into last season with high expectations was defenseman Robin Salo, the team’s 2017 second-round pick. He made the Islanders out of camp but didn’t stick, recording four points in 11 games throughout the first part of the season before the team assigned him to Bridgeport permanently in January. He posted just 14 assists in 38 games with Bridgeport, though, failing to score a goal throughout the entire season. After a rough year, Kurz says he’d be surprised to see Salo make the opening night roster again next season and thinks he’s slipped pretty far down the team’s depth chart of left-shot defenders. He also went so far as to call Salo a trade candidate and that if he’s not moved, the team may not issue him a qualifying offer next offseason.

Snapshots: Skills Results, International Games, Kastelic

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The All-Star festivities kicked off on Friday night with the annual Skills Competition which featured some staple events as well as some new outdoor ones.  Here is a listing of the winners for each event:

Tendy Tandem
Connor Hellebuyck, WPG/Juuse Saros, NSH (Central Division) – 13 points

Fastest Skater
Andrei Svechnikov, CAR – 13.699 seconds

NHL Pitch ‘n Puck
Nick Suzuki, MTL – 3

Splash Shot
Cale Makar/Mikko Rantanen, COL – 18.7 seconds

Hardest Shot
Elias Pettersson, VAN – 103.2 mph

Breakaway Challenge
Sidney Crosby, PIT/Alex Ovechkin, WSH – 40

Accuracy Shooting
Brock Nelson, NYI – 12.419 seconds

Elsewhere around the hockey world:

  • It appears that Australia will be where next season gets underway as David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period reports (Twitter link) that it’s all but a lock that the NHL will have games there to kick things off. He suggests that Boston and Los Angeles are among the teams in the mix to go although the full details won’t be announced until everything is finalized.  Games were played in Prague to start this season while there were a pair of games in Tampere as well back in November.
  • While there were plenty of players who were sent to the minors during the All-Star break, at least one regular player won’t be getting recalled right away. Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch relays that the Senators’ plan for Mark Kastelic is to keep the forward in the minors once the schedule resumes.  The 23-year-old has played in 43 games for Ottawa this season but has been out with a back issue for the last couple of weeks and will get some time to get back into form with AHL Belleville before potentially coming back up later on.

NHL Announces 2023 All-Star Player Assignments

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The 2023 NHL All-Star Skills competition will take place tomorrow night, and today the league announced the full lineup of participants. Players from around the league will get to show off their unique abilities in several events, with each individual winner taking home $30,000.

Fastest Skater

Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings
Kirill Kaprizov, Minnesota Wild
Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche
Chandler Stephenson, Vegas Golden Knights
Andrei Svechnikov, Carolina Hurricanes

Breakaway Challenge

Roberto Luongo, Celebrity goaltender
Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs
Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals*
Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins*
David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins
Matthew Tkachuk, Florida Panthers

*Ovechkin and Crosby are listed as “teaming up”

Tendy Tandem

Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets
Juuse Saros, Nashville Predators
Igor Shesterkin, New York Rangers
Stuart Skinner, Edmonton Oilers
Ilya Sorokin, New York Islanders
Logan Thompson, Vegas Golden Knights
Linus Ullmark, Boston Bruins
Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay Lightning

Splash Shot

Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins
Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche
Mikko Rantanen, Colorado Avalanche
Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche
Igor Shesterkin, New York Rangers
Adam Fox, New York Rangers
Brady Tkachuk, Ottawa Senators
Matthew Tkachuk, Florida Panthers

Accuracy Shooting

Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers
Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers
Kevin Hayes, Philadelphia Flyers
Jack Hughes, New Jersey Devils
Nazem Kadri, Calgary Flames
Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning
Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers
Brock Nelson, New York Islanders
Artemi Panarin, New York Rangers
Vladimir Tarasenko, St. Louis Blues

Pitch ’n Puck

Johnny Gaudreau, Columbus Blue Jackets
Clayton Keller, Arizona Coyotes
Jason Robertson, Dallas Stars
Nick Suzuki, Montreal Canadiens

Hardest Shot

Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo Sabres
Seth Jones, Chicago Blackhawks
Josh Morrissey, Winnipeg Jets
Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals
Elias Pettersson, Vancouver Canucks

NHL Announces Initial All-Star Rosters

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According to a league release, the NHL has named the first eight selections to the four divisional All-Star teams for the 2023 NHL All-Star Game in Sunrise, Florida.

The league names one player to represent each team at the game, a rule in standing since the league switched to a divisional format for its mid-season talent showcase. A public fan vote will decide the three remaining players per division next week.

Each division’s leader in points percentage after gameplay concludes on January 11 will determine coaches for these teams. The Boston Bruins have already clinched the best such number in the Atlantic at that time, meaning Jim Montgomery will be behind the bench for the star-studded Atlantic Division, arguably the league’s best contingent of talent.

The initial rosters for each division are as follows:

Atlantic Division

Boston: G Linus Ullmark (1st appearance)
Buffalo: C Tage Thompson (1st appearance)
Detroit: C Dylan Larkin (3rd appearance)
Florida: RW Matthew Tkachuk (2nd appearance)
Montreal: C Nick Suzuki (2nd appearance)
Ottawa: LW Brady Tkachuk (3rd appearance)
Tampa Bay: RW Nikita Kucherov (4th appearance)
Toronto: RW Mitch Marner (2nd appearance)

Metropolitan Division

Carolina: LW Andrei Svechnikov (1st appearance)
Columbus: LW Johnny Gaudreau (7th appearance)
New Jersey: C Jack Hughes (2nd appearance)
NY Islanders: C Brock Nelson (1st appearance)
NY Rangers: G Igor Shesterkin (1st appearance)
Philadelphia: C Kevin Hayes (1st appearance)
Pittsburgh: C Sidney Crosby (5th appearance)
Washington: LW Alex Ovechkin (8th appearance)

Central Division

Arizona: LW Clayton Keller (3rd appearance)
Chicago: RD Seth Jones (4th appearance)
Colorado: RD Cale Makar (2nd appearance)
Dallas: LW Jason Robertson (1st appearance)
Minnesota: LW Kirill Kaprizov (2nd appearance)
Nashville: G Juuse Saros (2nd appearance)
St. Louis: RW Vladimir Tarasenko (injured) (4th appearance)
Winnipeg: LD Josh Morrissey (1st appearance)

Pacific Division

Anaheim: RW Troy Terry (2nd appearance)
Calgary: C Nazem Kadri (2nd appearance)
Edmonton: C Connor McDavid (6th appearance)
Los Angeles: LW Kevin Fiala (1st appearance)
San Jose: RD Erik Karlsson (7th appearance)
Seattle: C Matthew Beniers (1st appearance)
Vancouver: C Elias Pettersson (3rd appearance)
Vegas: G Logan Thompson (1st appearance)

The most important note on these rosters is obviously that of Tarasenko’s status. The 31-year-old is on injured reserve with a hand injury, and likely won’t be able to suit up. His replacement will be named shortly.

More to come…

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