Brendan Smith

The New York Rangers are a team that is likely to make a buyout this off-season on the blueline. With $22.025 MM spent on the back-end, the team has expected far better results. Long past are the days where the Rangers were among the best defensive squads in the league. Both Dan Girardi and Marc Staal have drastically underperformed, as both have been burned consistently to the net. With the team potentially looking to re-sign defenseman Brendan Smith and certainly hoping to add some offensive punch to their top-nine, it seems inevitable that one of the two will find their way out of town. The trade value for both is minimal, and GM Jeff Gorton would need to execute some serious magic to unload either without a mass of sweeteners in a deal.

The biggest argument against buying out Staal is that his contract runs for a year longer. Buyouts count as cap penalties (the amount varying depending on a multitude of factors), but always for twice the amount of years of the original contract.  Staal has 4 years remaining on his contract, while Girardi only has 3 – consequently, the Rangers would take a hit in “dead space” for 8 years for the former but only 6 for the latter. That may not seem like a hugely important factor, but neither of these players is performing at an AHL level quite yet – they merely are nowhere near worth their contracts. According to CapFriendly, a Girardi buyout would be structured as $2.6 – $3.6 – $3.6 – $1.1 – $1.1 – $1.1  (in MM), whereas a Staal buyout would be structured as $2.1 – $2.1  – $3.1 – $3.9 – $1.4 – $1.4 -$1.4 – $1.4 (in MM). Many teams opt to ride out a final year with a struggling veteran than eat cap dollars for 2 whole seasons. Cap dollars truly matter, and every year you pay for a mistake is a potential lost opportunity at a deadline. Playing a player to not play whatsoever until 2025 is nothing short of drastic.

The biggest argument for buying out Girardi is, simply put, his play. His possession numbers were far worse – 44.0% vs Staal’s 46.6% Corsi For. They both had a similar number of giveaways, 47 versus 46, but Girardi had far fewer takeaways. Girardi also didn’t have what could be categorized as an anomalous season – he’s hasn’t been a positive possession player since he broke into the league. His lowest totals are also far worse than Staal’s, which implies his floor is far lower. Girardi seems slightly slower, although neither is a speedster, but he seems to take more of a physical beating on a nightly basis – which, to be fair, has a great deal to due with quality of competition. It could also easily be argued that Staal had an abysmal playoffs, which should always be a determinant factor.

Ultimately, both players are in the unenviable position of earning too much on the backend of their careers. Girardi, 33, and Staal, 30, simply aren’t in their primes as defensive defensemen. The game takes a toll on shot-blocking, physical players. There is the distinct possibility that either could rebound in a new environment, and have simply worn out their welcome in the Big Apple. But the Rangers would be unwise to gamble on both struggling players to return to their former selves. If only for cap-related reasons, Girardi would be the wiser choice to buyout.