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Brayden Point

Mitch Marner Deal Holding Up Other Restricted Free Agents

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If the Toronto Maple Leafs’ negotiations with Mitch Marner last as long as they did with William Nylander last season, many other NHL teams are going to be in trouble. According to The Athletic’s Joe Smith, many other agents are waiting to see how Marner’s deal shakes out before finalizing terms for their own top restricted free agent forwards. A surprising number of prominent RFA forwards remain unsigned and could stay that way until the Marner deal sets the market.

Writing specifically about the Tampa Bay Lightning, a team facing their own RFA conundrum with breakout center Brayden Point, Smith states that the team expects Point to be ready for camp in September, but agent Gerry Johansson is content with the “slow process”. The agents for Mikko Rantanen, Matthew Tkachuk, Kyle Connor, Brock Boeser, Patrik Laine, and Travis Konecny likely feel the same way and are apparently waiting to see where Marner, the best of the group, ends up before moving forward. In fact, Sportsnet’s Rick Dhaliwal also added today that things are very quiet around Boeser’s camp and he acknowledges that the process has been slow for most big-name RFA’s.

So what will be the first domino to fall? Will Marner really sign first and set the stage for everyone else? Or will another unsigned star finally budge and give the market a much-needed comparable? While Marner, who recorded 94 points in 82 games last year, is the most established player and considered the top RFA who would be the ceiling for the market, he was actually quite comparable to Rantanen and Point last season. However, the rest of the group could benefit from any of the group signing a contract to use as a point of comparison. At this point in the summer, the odds are high that at least one of these negotiations will last into the regular season. But if the reports are true that the market waits on Marner, those teams with top unsigned RFA forwards better hope that Toronto and their star winger are closer than it seems.

Atlantic Notes: Panthers, Schmaltz, Point

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The Florida Panthers are making a big push to become a winning team now and hope that after the acquisition of goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky as well as Brett Connolly and Noel Acciari will be enough to get there. One reason the team wants to win now is that the Panthers have only reached the playoffs five times in their 25 year history and its time for that to change.

However, The Athletic’s George Richards (subscription required) writes that another reason that the team has pushed up its intensity towards fielding the best team possible is that it still has many core players who are under reasonable contracts, but that could change in the next three years. Aleksander Barkov has just three years remaining at a team-friendly $5.9MM and then will likely see his salary skyrocket. Vincent Trocheck also has three years remaining at a reasonable $4.75MM and Jonathan Huberdeau is currently the longest tenured forward at four years at $5.9MM. Already next season, the franchise will have to make some costly decisions on Mike Hoffman, who has one year remaining at $5.19MM, and Evgenii Dadonov makes $4MM for one more year. Both are expected to score big raises, especially if they can keep their offense going this season.

With the potential of eventually losing a number of their top forwards, the Panthers are making it clear that they want to win with this group now rather than hope their young prospects can quickly replace those that will eventually leave.

  • After acquiring defenseman Jordan Schmaltz Thursday from the St. Louis Blues, it looks like the Toronto Maple Leafs’ main reasoning might have been to get a solid replacement for recently traded Calle Rosen. The Maple Leafs had high hopes for Rosen, but because he was left-handed, there was concern how he might fit into the lineup. The Toronto Sun’s Steve Simmons writes that the team liked Schmaltz because he was right-handed and was an impressive skater, something that Andreas Borgman isn’t. While he doesn’t necessarily have Rosen’s upside, Schmaltz at least should be able to provide better depth for the team on that side.
  • Diana Nearhos of the Tampa Bay Times writes that Tampa Bay Lightning fans that are constantly worried about the fact that restricted free agent Brayden Point hasn’t signed a contract yet, need to stop worrying. The scribe writes that there is plenty of cap space, up to $11.4MM, once they place Ryan Callahan on LTIR and the fact that Montreal showed interest in having Point sign an offer sheet even before they signed Sebastian Aho to one and he refused is a sign that he has every intention of staying in Tampa Bay.

Snapshots: Point, Bobrovsky, McDavid

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The top end of the RFA market is really making an impact this offseason as it appears most of the players are waiting to see what others get.  But eventually, someone will have to be the next to sign.  ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski cites one GM who believes that Tampa Bay center Brayden Point will be the next one to put pen to paper on a new deal.  It was reported earlier this summer that Montreal had approached him about an offer sheet but they were quickly rebuffed so the threat of him considering an offer sheet elsewhere may not be so high.  However, the cap situation for the Lightning still isn’t the greatest, even following the trade of J.T. Miller to Vancouver and the fact that Ryan Callahan will be on LTIR next season.  Tampa Bay has forced some young players to go the bridge route in the past and it’s something they may have to do here but if so, this is something that could wind up dragging out for a while yet.

Elsewhere around the league:

  • New Panthers goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky opened up to Sport 24’s Daria Tubolseva regarding his departure from Columbus. He mentioned that he informed management following their postseason exit in 2018 that he had no intentions of staying with the Blue Jackets but management decided to try to re-sign him anyway at various points throughout the season.  Bobrovsky called Florida his top option when he was assessing teams to sign with and he wasted little time joining them, inking a seven-year, $70MM contract shortly after the signing period opened up on July 1st.
  • Oilers GM Ken Holland indicated in an appearance on Sportsnet 590 (audio link) that everything he’s hearing regarding Connor McDavid’s recovery is positive but stopped short of guaranteeing that the center will be ready for training camp. McDavid suffered a knee injury in the final game of the regular season and while surgery wasn’t required, a lengthy rehab period was expected.

Tampa Bay, Dallas Among Teams Facing Contract Limit Crunch

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The Tampa Bay Lightning are not only up against the NHL’s $81.5MM salary cap upper limit, but also the league’s 50-contract limit. They’re not alone either; in addition to the Bolts, the Dallas Stars, Los Angeles Kings, Ottawa Senators, and Anaheim Ducks each have 48 players already signed to contracts next season as well. Six other teams have 46 or 47 players signed. The closer a club gets to 50, the less roster flexibility they have during the season. When it comes to making trades, claiming players on waivers, or signing college or junior free agents, teams without room can be hamstrung and forced to either pass up on possibilities or make desperation moves to free up roster space. It’s not an ideal situation and could force more than a few teams to make a move or two as the summer wears on.

Tampa Bay is in the worst position of all, as not only do they have just two contract slots available, but they also have two NHL regulars who remain unsigned restricted free agents in need of contracts – Brayden Point and Adam Erne. It’s hard to imagine that the Lightning, who also need to open up considerable cap space, don’t move out a player or two to help clear things up in both regards. One other possible saving grace could be sending 2019 first-round pick Nolan Foote or fellow prospect forward Gabriel Fortier back to their respective junior teams. Even if under contract, 18- and 19-year-old junior players who are still slide-eligible do not count against the 50-contract limit once returned to the junior level. If Foote and/or Fortier don’t crack the Tampa lineup, they would additionally clear up some room. A surefire contender, who also could use some affordable support where they can get it, the Bolts will definitely be a player on the trade and waiver markets this upcoming season, assuming they have the means to do so.

Dallas is in a similarly difficult situation. With just two contract slots available, the Stars need to re-sign (or do something with) defenseman Julius Honka. If the team signs Honka or trades him for another signed player or prospect, they are down to just one open space. Fortunately, unsigned RFA Niklas Hansson is expected to spend the season in Sweden and will not need a contract to become Dallas’ 50th man. Junior forwards Ty Dellandrea and Riley Damiani would also no longer count against the contract limit if sent back to their respective teams, although many in Dallas would like to see Dellandrea push for a spot on the roster.

L.A. has just one unsigned RFA remaining, promising forward Adrian Kempe, so they aren’t in danger to hit 50 at this time. The Kings also have a number of young players under contract who will battle for roster spots, which could force Akil Thomas back to juniors for one more year, removing his contract from the mix. L.A. has been a highly active team on the college free agent market of late and will want some contract room later in the season for potential additions.

Similarly, Ottawa has just Colin White left to sign, so barring further additions are not at risk of hitting 50 contracts. However, the Senators are just narrowly over the league’s salary cap floor, which could prompt them to add another contract so that they don’t have to risk falling below the floor during the year due to a trade. Right now, only Jonathan Gruden is a candidate to go back to junior and remove his contract from limit calculations, so if Ottawa does make another addition, they’ll likely look to make a subtraction or two as well to remain flexible in-season.

The final team at 48 contracts is the Ducks. Fortunately for them, Anaheim has no one left to sign and by all accounts are not looking to make any other moves this off-season. They should be safe, but may look to move a contract just in case the opportunities present themselves to add on during the season.

One team who isn’t at all worried about the contract limit: the New Jersey Devils. New Jersey currently has just 39 players under contract, third least behind Carolina and Winnipeg, but also have just two unsigned RFA’s in need of contracts while the Hurricanes and Jets each have a handful. The Devils project to enter the season with the fewest players under contract, as well the smallest payroll other than Ottawa. That could change though, as the team continues to be included in rumors pertaining to many of the top unsigned UFA’s and top trade targets this summer.

Lightning Re-Sign Dominik Masin

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Another day, another restricted free agent back under contract with the Tampa Bay Lightning. After inking Ben Thomas to an extension yesterday, the team has announced that fellow RFA defenseman Dominik Masin has also re-signed. It is a one-year, two-way contract for Masin. No financial terms were disclosed, but CapFriendly anticipates a minimum $700K NHL salary.

Masin, 23, has been a long-term project for the Bolts whose potential is still unclear. A 2014 second-round pick out of the Czech Republic, Masin played two productive years in the OHL before turning pro in 2016. He immediately jumped into a starting role with the AHL’s Syracuse Crunch, but struggled to put up points in his first season. That changed in 2017-18, when Masin finished second among Crunch defenders with 24 points in 72 games. Yet, he regressed offensively this season, dropping to 12 points in 69 games. On the other hand, his defense improved and his +36 rating led the team and was among the best in the league. Masin has yet to make an NHL appearance, but this season may finally offer him a chance to debut and for Tampa to get a better idea of what they have in the prospect.

With Masin locked up, the Lightning are down to just two RFA’s left to sign: Adam Erne and Brayden Point. Point has been and will continue to be Tampa Bay’s biggest priority this summer. The team has a projected $5.58MM in cap space, but will need much more than that to get Point re-signed, not to mention Erne.

Free Agent Focus: Tampa Bay Lightning

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Free agency is now just a few days away from opening up and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  Tampa Bay has already made moves to clear some salary off their books but have several RFAs needing new deals.  Here’s a closer look at their free agent situation.

Key Restricted Free Agents: F Brayden Point — For Tampa Bay, the entire offseason comes down to Point and his next deal after he exploded for 41 goals and 92 points in 2019-20. The undersized forward has worked his tail off since dropping to the third round in 2014 and is now one of the best two-way centers in the league. While teammates Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos may get more national coverage, Point’s impact on the Lightning is irreplaceable and he’ll be looking for a huge raise coming off an entry-level contract that saw him record 198 points in 229 games. There is optimism that a deal will eventually get done between the two sides, but Point is in a group of restricted free agents around the league that are all waiting to see each other’s contracts.

F Cedric Paquette — While Point is the straw that stirs the drink this offseason, Paquette shouldn’t be overlooked. The 25-year old center provides a physical, grinding presence that the team may be lacking now that J.T. Miller and Ryan Callahan are gone and even scored 13 goals in limited minutes last season. A good faceoff man and key penalty killer, his 269 hits would be difficult to replace if the team was forced to go in another direction.

Other RFAs: F Adam Erne, F Danick Martel, F Carter Verhaeghe, D Ben Thomas, D Dominik Masin

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: D Anton Stralman — Easily the biggest loss through free agency this summer for the Lightning will be Stralman, who has been the epitome of consistency for the last five seasons. The veteran defenseman has provided a stable, stay-at-home option on the right side for some of the more offensive Lightning defenders and has eaten up minutes on a nightly basis. He dealt with injury this season that limited him to just 47 games, but he heads into the offseason as one of the top free agent options remaining on the blue line. If Tampa Bay wanted to bring him back they’d need to find some extra cap space, as even at 32 he should command a multi-year contract.

D Dan Girardi — The same might not be true for Girardi, who is set to sign his next contract after his 35th birthday. That designation comes with added risk for teams, but performing decently enough in a reduced role for Tampa Bay there will still be someone who gives him the chance if he wants it. Girardi recorded 16 points in 62 games for the Lightning but was still a key penalty killer and trailed only Ryan McDonagh in blocked shots.

Other UFAs: F Andy Andreoff, F Mitch Hults, F Gabriel Dumont, F Kevin Lynch

Projected Cap Space: The Lightning currently sit a little more than $10.6MM under the $81.5MM ceiling according to CapFriendly, but can also place Callahan’s $5.8MM hit on long-term injured reserve if necessary. LTIR designations are a little more complicated than just “free cap space” however, and with Point’s deal expected to add a huge chunk of salary the Lightning don’t have a ton of room for free agent shopping—just don’t tell them that.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Pacific Notes: Boeser, Brodie, Schmaltz

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While the names of Mitch Marner, Sebastian Aho, Brayden Point and William Karlsson are popular names brought up amongst the multitude of upcoming restricted free agents this summer, one name that often gets missed is Vancouver Canucks winger Brock Boeser. The 22-year-old has been a key figure with the Canucks the past two years as he’s combined for 51 goals and 111 points in the last two seasons, making him quite an interesting figure, considering Vancouver needs to lock him up.

The Athletic’s Harman Dayal (subscription required) analyzes what it might take for the Canucks to sign Boeser this summer. While the Canucks have the cap space to be generous to their young forward, the scribe writes they need to be cautious as both Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes will be watching as they will also be looking for new record-breaking deals in the next two years, but when noting that it took Boeser a couple of years to break into the league before his entry-level deal kicked in, the best comparisons are Filip Forsberg and Jordan Eberle. With those numbers in mind, the scribe says that a rough estimate puts Boeser at approximately $7.25MM with Boeser likely asking for $8MM, while the Canucks hoping to keep it as close to $7MM as possible.

However, with no eligibility for arbitration or a potential offer sheet to use as leverage, Boeser isn’t exactly in the prime situation to force the Canucks to pay $8MM unless he wants to hold out.

  • While there has been talk that the Calgary Flames might be ready to move on from defenseman T.J. Brodie with their influx of talented blueliners ready to take bigger roles in the near future, The Athletic’s Kent Wilson (subscription required) does an in-depth look at Mark Giordano as well as his impact on Brodie. The scribe notes that Brodie, who looked to be on the decline a year ago, had an improved year when paired with Giordano, but when he wasn’t playing with the star defenseman, Brodie’s numbers were extremely mediocre, even more suggesting that Calgary might be best served in moving Brodie now before his value slips even more. The 28-year-old will be in a contract-year at $4.65MM, which might make him even more valuable to other NHL teams.
  • Craig Morgan of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that Arizona Coyotes forward Nick Schmaltz, who the team acquired last November but only appeared in 17 games before going down with a season-ending meniscus injury, is changing his diet in hopes of being in the best shape of his career. With a history of eating burgers and cheese curds, the team has asked him to start eating healthier this summer. “I have never really cooked in my life,” he said. “It was always easier to go out or order something, but learning how to cook healthy food is a big step, and you can really focus on that in the summer.”

Why Tampa Bay’s Defense Will Look Much Different Next Season

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While recency bias has hockey fans looking back on the Tampa Bay Lightning’s season as a failure due to their shocking early playoff exit, in reality the team was historically good, winning 62 games en route to 128 points and an easy President’s Trophy win. In general, most teams who enjoy that level of success would look to change as little as possible, even with the postseason disappointment. Last year’s Stanley Cup-winning Washington Capitals have become the standard for staying the course and, by all accounts, the Lightning expect to follow in their footsteps and avoid the temptation to make sweeping changes.

However, it’s not that simple. As Joe Smith of The Athletic writes, the Bolts will have to undergo a major makeover on their blue line. Tampa Bay is already committed to over $73MM for 16 players next season. That list includes top defensemen Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh, as well as most core forwards like Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, J.T. Miller, and Yanni Gourde and starting goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. However, it does not include half of the eight defensemen used regularly by the Lightning this season: Anton Stralman, Braydon Coburn, Dan Girardi, and Jan Rutta. More importantly, it also doesn’t include sophomore breakout forward Brayden Point. Even with the salary cap expected to climb north of $80MM this off-season, re-signing Point will eat up most of that space and extending fellow RFA forwards Cedric Paquette and Adam Erne will add up as well. Without a considerable cap dump, it would seem re-signing even one of those UFA defensemen, nevertheless most of them, will be incredibly difficult.

So what does Tampa do about this situation? The aforementioned cap dump seems a near certainty, as veteran forward Ryan Callahan is expected to be traded or bought out this summer. A buy out could give the Lightning the wiggle room to re-sign one of the four pending UFA’s, while a trade could either open up cap space or allow the team to bring in a blue liner with a bad contract like Callahan’s. Yet, Callahan alone is not the only move that the Bolts could make before next season. Smith mentions Miller as the easiest forward to trade away, as his trade protection does not kick in until the new league year on July 1st. Johnson, Palat, and Alex Killorn all have full or limited No-Trade Clauses, making them harder to deal, but still expendable regardless. In moving any of those four valuable forwards – or even Point if negotiations reach an impasse – the Bolts would likely be able to land a talented defenseman in return.

Outside of Callahan though, the Lightning do not have to make other trades to form a capable defense. Internally, they already have a promising top-four in veteran stars Hedman and McDonagh and promising young rearguards Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak. AHL standout Cal Foote will also challenge for a job in camp, while the team will almost certainly target a defenseman with the 27th overall pick in the first round this year, who could push for an NHL spot right away if they’re lucky. Moving Callahan, if salary does not come back in return, could enable the team to re-sign Rutta, likely the cheapest option of the four, or perhaps Coburn or Girardi on hometown discounts. It is hard to imagine Stralman being within their price range or any two returning. Yet, affordable options will also exist on the free agent market, as many players may be willing to sign for less for a shot at the Cup in Tampa Bay. Veteran UFA options who could come in under $2MM or so include Michael Del Zotto, Adam McQuaid, Ben Lovejoy, and Roman Polak, among others.

The only certainty when it comes to Tampa’s defense this season is that it will not look the same as it did last year. There is simply no financial way for the team to maintain the depth and balance on the blue line that this unit had, but some savvy moves this off-season could still keep the defense just as strong. How the team handles Point, Callahan, and the free agency and trade markets will be one of the more intriguing story lines this summer and could dictate whether the Bolts are able to follow the Capitals’ model and stay the course toward a championship following postseason disappointment.

Atlantic Notes: Callahan, Yzerman, Borgstrom

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With cap problems fast approaching and plenty of extensions kicking in (as well as the contract of RFA Brayden Point to worry about), the Tampa Bay Lightning will have lots to worry about. Even with the expiring contracts of Braydon Coburn ($3.7MM), Dan Girardi ($3MM), Jan Rutta ($2.2MM) and Anton Stralman ($4.5MM), most of that money will go towards the new extensions for Nikita Kucherov, Yanni Gourde and Ryan McDonagh, which will likely force the team to find other ways to save money.

One contract that the Lightning will likely try to get rid of will be that of forward Ryan Callahan, who still has one year remaining on his contract at $5.8MM. The 34-year-old forward only appeared in 52 games this year and while injuries have been part of the problem, Callahan has also found himself a healthy scratch often this year, especially after the all-star break, as his skills seem to be on a decline. Diana Nearhos of the Tampa Bay Times suggests that the team might attempt to trade him off, despite having a modified no-trade clause. The team would almost have to retain some of his salary to make a deal work, but there is also a legitimate chance they will buy the veteran out.

  • In an interview with Detroit Red Wings new general manager Steve Yzerman, The Athletic’s Craig Custance (subscription required) asked multiple questions about the team’s sixth-overall pick in the upcoming 2019 NHL draft. When asked about Russian winger Vasili Podkolzin, whose draft stock seems to be dropping due to signability issues, Yzerman made it clear that he wasn’t worried about that and wouldn’t be scared to draft him. “It hasn’t in the past,” said Yzerman. “The really good Russian players all come over. Maybe they wait a year, two years, but eventually you get them. (Evgeny) Kuznetsov, (Vladimir) Tarasenko, (Andrei) Vasilevskiy. (Nikita) Kucherov waited a year. The really good ones are coming over. You have to be prepared, potentially, to wait. I don’t really know what his contract status is.”
  • The Athletic’s George Richards (subscription required) writes that this offseason will be a big one for Florida Panthers forward Henrik Borgstrom. The 21-year-old struggled this season in his transition to the NHL, scoring eight goals and 18 points in 50 games. One of new head coach Joel Quenneville’s new responsibility is to get the most out of Borgstrom, who will likely be expected to shift to the center position and be the odds-on favorite to take over the third-line position. “I definitely want it,” Borgstrom said. “That’s the spot I want to take, and it is up to me to take it. I feel like I have to be ready for it, work hard for it. Hopefully, when the time training camp comes, I will be totally ready to take it.”

Atlantic Notes: Lightning Records, Kronwall, Thompson

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With the Tampa Bay Lightning’s victory Saturday, the team finished with 62 wins, tying the 1995-96 Detroit Red Wings for the NHL record for wins in a season. The team’s 128 points will go down as the fourth-best number of points by a team, four points shy of the 1976-77 Montreal Canadiens, who continue to hold the top spot.

On top of that, star forward Nikita Kucherov hit 128 points on the year during Saturday’s game, which breaks the Russian record for points in an NHL season. Kucherov passed Alexander Mogilny, who tallied 127 points back in the 1992-93 season when he was with the Buffalo Sabres. “It’s a special feeling,” said Kucherov (via The Athletic’s Joe Smith). “Thanks to everybody in the room. Thanks to the guys for helping me out. Without them, definitely I wouldn’t be here. It’s a team effort.”

  • Sticking with Tampa Bay, CapFriendly reports that with some serious cap concerns coming up this off-season, they don’t have anything to worry about when it comes to bonus overages. The Lightning are expected to have some real cap issues with eight restricted free agents and 11 unrestricted free agents, centered around negotiations with center Brayden Point. However, with no major bonuses coming to their young players that could push them over the salary cap this season, the team will have their entire cap space to use on free agents.
  • Despite playing on a bad knee, Detroit Red Wings defenseman Niklas Kronwall remains undecided on whether he intends to continue his playing career next season, according to Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James. Kronwall, who is wrapping up a seven-year, $33.25MM deal, is 38 years old but played well this year and certainly could play another season if he wants to come back. One key factor in his decision is that he has played in 953 career NHL games. “A thousand games, I’ve always looked at that as a huge milestone,” Kronwall said. “That’s something that, if that were to happen, something I’d be extremely proud of. Given the opportunity to represent this organization for all these years has meant a lot to me.”
  • Montreal Gazette’s Stu Cowan writes that the Canadiens may have seen the last of veteran Nate Thompson, who the team acquired several weeks before the trade deadline in an exchange for draft picks. Thompson, whose contract expires at the end of the season, finished with a goal and seven points in 25 games, but the Canadiens might be ready to move on from him. The 34-year-old veteran still feels he has a lot to offer an NHL team, however. “I think I still have a lot of hockey left in me,” Thompson said. “I may be 34, but I feel good. I feel really good. I still think I can play. I still think I can contribute and help on any team.”

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