Free Agent Focus: Tampa Bay Lightning
Free agency is now just a few days away from opening up and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. Tampa Bay has already made moves to clear some salary off their books but have several RFAs needing new deals. Here’s a closer look at their free agent situation.
Key Restricted Free Agents: F Brayden Point — For Tampa Bay, the entire offseason comes down to Point and his next deal after he exploded for 41 goals and 92 points in 2019-20. The undersized forward has worked his tail off since dropping to the third round in 2014 and is now one of the best two-way centers in the league. While teammates Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos may get more national coverage, Point’s impact on the Lightning is irreplaceable and he’ll be looking for a huge raise coming off an entry-level contract that saw him record 198 points in 229 games. There is optimism that a deal will eventually get done between the two sides, but Point is in a group of restricted free agents around the league that are all waiting to see each other’s contracts.
F Cedric Paquette — While Point is the straw that stirs the drink this offseason, Paquette shouldn’t be overlooked. The 25-year old center provides a physical, grinding presence that the team may be lacking now that J.T. Miller and Ryan Callahan are gone and even scored 13 goals in limited minutes last season. A good faceoff man and key penalty killer, his 269 hits would be difficult to replace if the team was forced to go in another direction.
Other RFAs: F Adam Erne, F Danick Martel, F Carter Verhaeghe, D Ben Thomas, D Dominik Masin
Key Unrestricted Free Agents: D Anton Stralman — Easily the biggest loss through free agency this summer for the Lightning will be Stralman, who has been the epitome of consistency for the last five seasons. The veteran defenseman has provided a stable, stay-at-home option on the right side for some of the more offensive Lightning defenders and has eaten up minutes on a nightly basis. He dealt with injury this season that limited him to just 47 games, but he heads into the offseason as one of the top free agent options remaining on the blue line. If Tampa Bay wanted to bring him back they’d need to find some extra cap space, as even at 32 he should command a multi-year contract.
D Dan Girardi — The same might not be true for Girardi, who is set to sign his next contract after his 35th birthday. That designation comes with added risk for teams, but performing decently enough in a reduced role for Tampa Bay there will still be someone who gives him the chance if he wants it. Girardi recorded 16 points in 62 games for the Lightning but was still a key penalty killer and trailed only Ryan McDonagh in blocked shots.
Other UFAs: F Andy Andreoff, F Mitch Hults, F Gabriel Dumont, F Kevin Lynch
Projected Cap Space: The Lightning currently sit a little more than $10.6MM under the $81.5MM ceiling according to CapFriendly, but can also place Callahan’s $5.8MM hit on long-term injured reserve if necessary. LTIR designations are a little more complicated than just “free cap space” however, and with Point’s deal expected to add a huge chunk of salary the Lightning don’t have a ton of room for free agent shopping—just don’t tell them that.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Pacific Notes: Boeser, Brodie, Schmaltz
While the names of Mitch Marner, Sebastian Aho, Brayden Point and William Karlsson are popular names brought up amongst the multitude of upcoming restricted free agents this summer, one name that often gets missed is Vancouver Canucks winger Brock Boeser. The 22-year-old has been a key figure with the Canucks the past two years as he’s combined for 51 goals and 111 points in the last two seasons, making him quite an interesting figure, considering Vancouver needs to lock him up.
The Athletic’s Harman Dayal (subscription required) analyzes what it might take for the Canucks to sign Boeser this summer. While the Canucks have the cap space to be generous to their young forward, the scribe writes they need to be cautious as both Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes will be watching as they will also be looking for new record-breaking deals in the next two years, but when noting that it took Boeser a couple of years to break into the league before his entry-level deal kicked in, the best comparisons are Filip Forsberg and Jordan Eberle. With those numbers in mind, the scribe says that a rough estimate puts Boeser at approximately $7.25MM with Boeser likely asking for $8MM, while the Canucks hoping to keep it as close to $7MM as possible.
However, with no eligibility for arbitration or a potential offer sheet to use as leverage, Boeser isn’t exactly in the prime situation to force the Canucks to pay $8MM unless he wants to hold out.
- While there has been talk that the Calgary Flames might be ready to move on from defenseman T.J. Brodie with their influx of talented blueliners ready to take bigger roles in the near future, The Athletic’s Kent Wilson (subscription required) does an in-depth look at Mark Giordano as well as his impact on Brodie. The scribe notes that Brodie, who looked to be on the decline a year ago, had an improved year when paired with Giordano, but when he wasn’t playing with the star defenseman, Brodie’s numbers were extremely mediocre, even more suggesting that Calgary might be best served in moving Brodie now before his value slips even more. The 28-year-old will be in a contract-year at $4.65MM, which might make him even more valuable to other NHL teams.
- Craig Morgan of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that Arizona Coyotes forward Nick Schmaltz, who the team acquired last November but only appeared in 17 games before going down with a season-ending meniscus injury, is changing his diet in hopes of being in the best shape of his career. With a history of eating burgers and cheese curds, the team has asked him to start eating healthier this summer. “I have never really cooked in my life,” he said. “It was always easier to go out or order something, but learning how to cook healthy food is a big step, and you can really focus on that in the summer.”
Why Tampa Bay’s Defense Will Look Much Different Next Season
While recency bias has hockey fans looking back on the Tampa Bay Lightning’s season as a failure due to their shocking early playoff exit, in reality the team was historically good, winning 62 games en route to 128 points and an easy President’s Trophy win. In general, most teams who enjoy that level of success would look to change as little as possible, even with the postseason disappointment. Last year’s Stanley Cup-winning Washington Capitals have become the standard for staying the course and, by all accounts, the Lightning expect to follow in their footsteps and avoid the temptation to make sweeping changes.
However, it’s not that simple. As Joe Smith of The Athletic writes, the Bolts will have to undergo a major makeover on their blue line. Tampa Bay is already committed to over $73MM for 16 players next season. That list includes top defensemen Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh, as well as most core forwards like Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, J.T. Miller, and Yanni Gourde and starting goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. However, it does not include half of the eight defensemen used regularly by the Lightning this season: Anton Stralman, Braydon Coburn, Dan Girardi, and Jan Rutta. More importantly, it also doesn’t include sophomore breakout forward Brayden Point. Even with the salary cap expected to climb north of $80MM this off-season, re-signing Point will eat up most of that space and extending fellow RFA forwards Cedric Paquette and Adam Erne will add up as well. Without a considerable cap dump, it would seem re-signing even one of those UFA defensemen, nevertheless most of them, will be incredibly difficult.
So what does Tampa do about this situation? The aforementioned cap dump seems a near certainty, as veteran forward Ryan Callahan is expected to be traded or bought out this summer. A buy out could give the Lightning the wiggle room to re-sign one of the four pending UFA’s, while a trade could either open up cap space or allow the team to bring in a blue liner with a bad contract like Callahan’s. Yet, Callahan alone is not the only move that the Bolts could make before next season. Smith mentions Miller as the easiest forward to trade away, as his trade protection does not kick in until the new league year on July 1st. Johnson, Palat, and Alex Killorn all have full or limited No-Trade Clauses, making them harder to deal, but still expendable regardless. In moving any of those four valuable forwards – or even Point if negotiations reach an impasse – the Bolts would likely be able to land a talented defenseman in return.
Outside of Callahan though, the Lightning do not have to make other trades to form a capable defense. Internally, they already have a promising top-four in veteran stars Hedman and McDonagh and promising young rearguards Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak. AHL standout Cal Foote will also challenge for a job in camp, while the team will almost certainly target a defenseman with the 27th overall pick in the first round this year, who could push for an NHL spot right away if they’re lucky. Moving Callahan, if salary does not come back in return, could enable the team to re-sign Rutta, likely the cheapest option of the four, or perhaps Coburn or Girardi on hometown discounts. It is hard to imagine Stralman being within their price range or any two returning. Yet, affordable options will also exist on the free agent market, as many players may be willing to sign for less for a shot at the Cup in Tampa Bay. Veteran UFA options who could come in under $2MM or so include Michael Del Zotto, Adam McQuaid, Ben Lovejoy, and Roman Polak, among others.
The only certainty when it comes to Tampa’s defense this season is that it will not look the same as it did last year. There is simply no financial way for the team to maintain the depth and balance on the blue line that this unit had, but some savvy moves this off-season could still keep the defense just as strong. How the team handles Point, Callahan, and the free agency and trade markets will be one of the more intriguing story lines this summer and could dictate whether the Bolts are able to follow the Capitals’ model and stay the course toward a championship following postseason disappointment.
Atlantic Notes: Callahan, Yzerman, Borgstrom
With cap problems fast approaching and plenty of extensions kicking in (as well as the contract of RFA Brayden Point to worry about), the Tampa Bay Lightning will have lots to worry about. Even with the expiring contracts of Braydon Coburn ($3.7MM), Dan Girardi ($3MM), Jan Rutta ($2.2MM) and Anton Stralman ($4.5MM), most of that money will go towards the new extensions for Nikita Kucherov, Yanni Gourde and Ryan McDonagh, which will likely force the team to find other ways to save money.
One contract that the Lightning will likely try to get rid of will be that of forward Ryan Callahan, who still has one year remaining on his contract at $5.8MM. The 34-year-old forward only appeared in 52 games this year and while injuries have been part of the problem, Callahan has also found himself a healthy scratch often this year, especially after the all-star break, as his skills seem to be on a decline. Diana Nearhos of the Tampa Bay Times suggests that the team might attempt to trade him off, despite having a modified no-trade clause. The team would almost have to retain some of his salary to make a deal work, but there is also a legitimate chance they will buy the veteran out.
- In an interview with Detroit Red Wings new general manager Steve Yzerman, The Athletic’s Craig Custance (subscription required) asked multiple questions about the team’s sixth-overall pick in the upcoming 2019 NHL draft. When asked about Russian winger Vasili Podkolzin, whose draft stock seems to be dropping due to signability issues, Yzerman made it clear that he wasn’t worried about that and wouldn’t be scared to draft him. “It hasn’t in the past,” said Yzerman. “The really good Russian players all come over. Maybe they wait a year, two years, but eventually you get them. (Evgeny) Kuznetsov, (Vladimir) Tarasenko, (Andrei) Vasilevskiy. (Nikita) Kucherov waited a year. The really good ones are coming over. You have to be prepared, potentially, to wait. I don’t really know what his contract status is.”
- The Athletic’s George Richards (subscription required) writes that this offseason will be a big one for Florida Panthers forward Henrik Borgstrom. The 21-year-old struggled this season in his transition to the NHL, scoring eight goals and 18 points in 50 games. One of new head coach Joel Quenneville‘s new responsibility is to get the most out of Borgstrom, who will likely be expected to shift to the center position and be the odds-on favorite to take over the third-line position. “I definitely want it,” Borgstrom said. “That’s the spot I want to take, and it is up to me to take it. I feel like I have to be ready for it, work hard for it. Hopefully, when the time training camp comes, I will be totally ready to take it.”
Atlantic Notes: Lightning Records, Kronwall, Thompson
With the Tampa Bay Lightning’s victory Saturday, the team finished with 62 wins, tying the 1995-96 Detroit Red Wings for the NHL record for wins in a season. The team’s 128 points will go down as the fourth-best number of points by a team, four points shy of the 1976-77 Montreal Canadiens, who continue to hold the top spot.
On top of that, star forward Nikita Kucherov hit 128 points on the year during Saturday’s game, which breaks the Russian record for points in an NHL season. Kucherov passed Alexander Mogilny, who tallied 127 points back in the 1992-93 season when he was with the Buffalo Sabres. “It’s a special feeling,” said Kucherov (via The Athletic’s Joe Smith). “Thanks to everybody in the room. Thanks to the guys for helping me out. Without them, definitely I wouldn’t be here. It’s a team effort.”
- Sticking with Tampa Bay, CapFriendly reports that with some serious cap concerns coming up this off-season, they don’t have anything to worry about when it comes to bonus overages. The Lightning are expected to have some real cap issues with eight restricted free agents and 11 unrestricted free agents, centered around negotiations with center Brayden Point. However, with no major bonuses coming to their young players that could push them over the salary cap this season, the team will have their entire cap space to use on free agents.
- Despite playing on a bad knee, Detroit Red Wings defenseman Niklas Kronwall remains undecided on whether he intends to continue his playing career next season, according to Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James. Kronwall, who is wrapping up a seven-year, $33.25MM deal, is 38 years old but played well this year and certainly could play another season if he wants to come back. One key factor in his decision is that he has played in 953 career NHL games. “A thousand games, I’ve always looked at that as a huge milestone,” Kronwall said. “That’s something that, if that were to happen, something I’d be extremely proud of. Given the opportunity to represent this organization for all these years has meant a lot to me.”
- Montreal Gazette’s Stu Cowan writes that the Canadiens may have seen the last of veteran Nate Thompson, who the team acquired several weeks before the trade deadline in an exchange for draft picks. Thompson, whose contract expires at the end of the season, finished with a goal and seven points in 25 games, but the Canadiens might be ready to move on from him. The 34-year-old veteran still feels he has a lot to offer an NHL team, however. “I think I still have a lot of hockey left in me,” Thompson said. “I may be 34, but I feel good. I feel really good. I still think I can play. I still think I can contribute and help on any team.”
Zuccarello, Point Will Wait Until Season’s End To Negotiate Next Contracts
The Dallas Stars went out and acquired Mats Zuccarello at the deadline in order to give them some extra secondary scoring, but lost him almost immediately to a broken arm. While he should be back in time to contribute during the playoffs (should Dallas get there), the former New York Rangers forward isn’t using the time off to negotiate his next contract. In fact, Stars GM Jim Nill told Matthew DeFranks of Dallas Morning News that the team will wait until the season is over to discuss any contract extension with Zuccarello.
Nill of course has more to consider than just salary structure and cap hit when it comes to Zuccarello’s next contract. If the Stars decide to re-sign the diminutive forward, they would sacrifice a 2020 first-round pick instead of the third-round selection they sent to the Rangers as part of the package to acquire him at the deadline. Without seeing his impact on the team over a longer term it’s hard to say whether that would be worth it.
In Tampa Bay they are facing a similar situation with young star Brayden Point. Unlike Zuccarello who is set for unrestricted free agency, Point is still controlled as a restricted free agent but will be looking for a huge contract after proving himself to be such an important piece of the Lightning puzzle this season. To that end, Point—who turned 23 today—has told Lightning GM Julien BriseBois that he doesn’t want to negotiate until the end of the year, according to Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription required). That affords Point another chance to prove he is worth as much as any of his RFA contemporaries, especially if he helps lead the Lightning to a Stanley Cup this season.
In 68 games this season the Tampa Bay forward has amassed 83 points while being one of the most consistent defensive players in the entire league. He leads the Lightning in goals with 37 and would have a case for team MVP if it weren’t for the existence of Nikita Kucherov. A third-round pick in 2014, Point has consistently improved every year and looks like he will be a superstar for a long time in the NHL. It will be interesting to see if he wants to be paid like it right away, or is willing to take a bridge deal like Kucherov did in 2016.
Tampa Bay Not Concerned With Potential Offer Sheets
Whenever the idea of an offer sheet is brought up, the two teams used most as potential targets are the Toronto Maple Leafs and Winnipeg Jets. That’s mostly because they have several pending restricted free agents and will be facing almost insurmountable cap issues this summer, making them seem more vulnerable. There’s another team in that same situation though and they have the added benefit of being the best team in the NHL. The Tampa Bay Lightning already have more than $73MM in cap hits committed to the 2019-20 season and still have to reach agreements with several RFAs.
The biggest name among those pending restricted free agents of course is Brayden Point, who has taken another incredible step forward this season and now ranks tenth in league scoring with 81 points. The 22-year old forward is already in contention for the Selke Trophy as one of the league’s best defensive players, and leads the entire NHL with 19 powerplay goals. His star is bright, and should be the target of offer sheets if they are truly coming this summer as some are starting to believe.
Lightning GM Julien BriseBois isn’t worried. In fact, when speaking with Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) this week at the GM meetings, BriseBois explained his confidence that the team can get a deal done with Point and stated he thinks “it makes sense for both parties.” The Lightning of course have plenty to sell a player like Point on, and even more if they end up going all the way to the Stanley Cup this season.
Tampa Bay is 17 points ahead of the next best team in the NHL and will almost assuredly lock up the Presidents Trophy in the coming weeks. They have an incredible +87 goal differential on the season and have lost just 12 contests in regulation. Any team extending a big offer sheet is likely one in the midst of some sort of rebuild, meaning Point would be taking a considerable step backwards in terms of competitiveness. Add in that Florida already enjoys some of the best tax rates available, and the Lightning have a lot going for them.
Still, a long-term extension for Point might be difficult to fit in without at least moving someone out. The Lightning have three veteran defensemen coming off the books in Anton Stralman, Dan Girardi and Braydon Coburn, and could potentially get out from under Ryan Callahan‘s last season by finding the right trade partner. Still, the team must consider the fact that Andrei Vasilevskiy is approaching his own payday after his current deal expires in the summer of 2020, while the rest of the core is under contract long after that.
Again, there is little reason to believe the Lightning are in trouble and BriseBois certainly doesn’t think an offer sheet will be coming for Point. As New Jersey Devils GM Ray Shero points out to Custance in the same piece, the player actually needs to be interested in signing the sheet too—it can’t be arbitrarily used as a predatory tactic.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Atlantic Notes: Buffalo Trade Options, Point, Ennis, Jaros
With a desperation for scoring wingers, The Athletic’s Jon Vogl (subscription required) writes that the Buffalo Sabres need to consider moving some of its depth on defense if it wants to add some secondary scoring to its ranks. The team is in desperate need at the right wing position, both now and in the near future, and there is little help on the way from Rochester. The Americans top two right wingers are Daniel O’Regan, who is expected to become a Group VI unrestricted free agent this offseason due to not playing enough games at the NHL level, while the team’s first-line right winger, Wayne Simpson, is on a minor-league deal.
Vogl writes the team is overloaded with defenseman with more help on the way as the team has Brendan Guhle, Brandon Hickey and Will Borgen are performing well in Rochester. With that kind of depth, the team should consider moving a depth defenseman like Nathan Beaulieu, Marco Scandella, Matt Hunwick or even Jake McCabe as trade options to get a winger. He suggests that Dallas, Detroit, New Jersey, St. Louis and Winnipeg as potential trade partners before the deadline.
- Despite missing Saturday’s game with a lower-body injury and being listed day-to-day, Tampa Bay Lightning coach Jon Cooper said after the game that Brayden Point was held out as a precaution because it was the second game of a back-to-back set and the team has a day off today, according to NHL.com’s Dan Rosen. Cooper added that he believes Point should be OK and is likely to play against Vegas on Tuesday.
- NHL.com’s Dave McCarthy reports the Toronto Maple Leafs got some good news as forward Tyler Ennis, who has been out of the lineup since Dec. 22 with a broken ankle, skated Saturday and is coming closer to a potential return, although head coach Mike Babcock was quick to point out that there is no timeline for his return. “I don’t know exactly the timeline on that,” Babcock said. “I know he skated real well today in his testing. They always tell you, ‘I’m ready, I’m ready’ but that doesn’t mean they get a get-out-jail free card yet.”
- Ottawa Citizen’s Ken Warren reports the Ottawa Senators offered no new information on the injury suffered by defenseman Christian Jaros when he was tripped into the boards Saturday by Detroit’s Darren Helm. He remains day-to-day. Jaros has been averaging 13:48 of ATOI, but has seen an increase of ice time recently, even getting some top-four minutes.
Atlantic Notes: Larkin, Point, Brassard, Condon
The Detroit Red Wings pulled off a big overtime win over the Toronto Maple Leafs Friday, but suffered an even bigger loss when star center Dylan Larkin had to leave the game in overtime while trying to chase Mitch Marner. He was doubled over and appeared to hurt his rib cage.
Fox Sports John Keating reports that coach Jeff Blashill said that Larkin will miss one to two weeks with a strained oblique muscle, although the team is hoping he will only miss one week. He has already been ruled out for tonight’s game against Ottawa. Andreas Athanasiou is expected to replace Larkin at center on that line.
Larkin has been a key player for the struggling Red Wings. He is having a career-year as he already has 22 goals, just one shy of his career-high and is close to being a point-per game player.
- In a mailbag article, The Athletic’s Joe Smith writes that Tampa Bay Lightning soon-to-be restricted free agent Brayden Point has made it quite clear that he wants to remain in Tampa Bay for a long time and the scribe suggests that the team might be best offering a five-year deal which might be the perfect compromise between a bridge deal and an eight-year pact. Both sides have agreed to put off contract talks until the summer. With 30 points goals and 65 points already in 51 games, the 22-year-old should receive quite a bump in pay when signing his new deal.
- Even though the Pittsburgh Penguins were able to get their new acquisitions Nick Bjugstad and Jared McCann into their game Friday by giving them a police escort from the airport to the game, the Florida Panthers didn’t do the same thing. The Panthers, who acquired Derick Brassard, Riley Sheahan, three draft picks and future cap room from Pittsburgh earlier in the day Friday, opted to go without the pair Friday and are expected to have the two in the lineup Saturday against Vegas, according to Sun Sentinel’s Wells Dusenbury “I didn’t find out [about the trade] until about 11 [am],” Boughner said. “We were planning on having a different lineup in there tonight and so we built the lineup with what we had and unfortunately [Brassard and Sheahan] couldn’t get in for the game.”
- The Ottawa Senators continue to be without goaltender Mike Condon, who the team placed on waivers on Oct. 31 who had and still is trying to come back from a hip injury, according to Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun. The veteran goaltender cleared waivers, but has appeared in just one game for the Belleville Senators in all that time. Condon has recently started skating and working out in Ottawa, but there remains no timetable for his return. The hope is that he can make a return to the ice for Belleville March. The team acquired goaltender Anders Nilsson to be their backup goaltender on Jan. 2, who has fared well in eight appearances for Ottawa with a .922 save percentage, meaning that Condon will have a tough time getting back into the goaltending rotation, barring injury.
“Last Man In” All-Star Ballot Candidates Announced
The NHL has already announced the initial ten-man All-Star rosters for each of the four divisions, but new this year is an additional fan ballot to add an eleventh and final member to each squad. The “Last Man In” ballot, an idea invented by Major League Baseball, pits one skater from each team in each division against one another for a chance to participate in All-Star festivities. Fans will decide, with online voting opening tomorrow and lasting until midnight ET on January 10, which of the following players will get the final nod:
Pacific Division
F Leon Draisaitl (EDM)
F Logan Couture (SJS)
F Anze Kopitar (LAK)
F Ryan Getzlaf (ANA)
F Brock Boeser (VAN)
F Jonathan Marchessault (VGK)
D Mark Giordano (CGY)
D Oliver Ekman-Larsson (ARI)
Central Division
F Gabriel Landeskog (COL)
F Zach Parise (MIN)
F Patrik Laine (WPG)
F Tyler Seguin (DAL)
F Vladimir Tarasenko (STL)
F Filip Forsberg (NSH)
F Jonathan Toews (CHI)
Atlantic Division
F Brayden Point (TBL)
F Jeff Skinner (BUF)
F Dylan Larkin (DET)
F Aleksander Barkov (FLA)
F Patrice Bergeron (BOS)
F Mark Stone (OTT)
D Morgan Rielly (TOR)
D Shea Weber (MTL)
Metropolitan Division
F Nicklas Backstrom (WSH)
F Kyle Palmieri (NJD)
F Anders Lee (NYI)
F Jakub Voracek (PHI)
F Teuvo Teravainen (CAR)
F Nick Foligno (CLB)
F Mats Zuccarello (NYR)
D Kris Letang (PIT)
Due to the limits on selections by team, both in the initial rosters and the “Last Man In” vote, there are several star players who cannot be saved by fan voting this year. The Toronto Maple Leafs’ Mitch Marner, the No. 6-ranked scorer in the league, highlights the snub group, which also includes Calgary Flames forwards Sean Monahan and Matthew Tkachuk, Pittsburgh Penguins forwards Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel, and Minnesota Wild defenseman Ryan Suter. Other odd omissions, not necessarily forced by the format, are Columbus’ Artemi Panarin, Nashville’s Ryan Johansen, and Montreal’s Max Domi and Jeff Petry. However, the new final vote option does largely do a good job of giving each team and their fan base one last chance to get a deserving player into the All-Star game.