Morning Notes: Flames Burn Out, Toronto’s Unlikely Hero, Looking Ahead
Saturday April 15th was a riveting evening of hockey for any fan of the sport. The Blackhawks were dominated 5-0 by the Predators in Game 2, but the other three games were all nail-biters. The Flames looked to take the lead after climbing out of a 2 goal deficit in the 2nd period, but the call on the ice of goalie interference against John Gibson kept the game tied. The Ducks would go on to get a bizarre ricochet goal from the stick of Ryan Getzlaf with just 4:46 remaining in regulation to secure an ugly win, and go up 2-0 in the series.
- The Leafs’ Kasperi Kapanen has not been in the spotlight – the likes of Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and Auston Matthews have been so phenomenal that he is easily forgotten in the mix. The promising young crafty forward was the centerpiece of the Phil Kessel deal, which until now, had undoubtedly looked to favor the Penguins. Serving 4th-line duty, the forward had only scored one goal in his 8 games up with big squad this season. In the second overtime of Saturday’s Game 2 versus the Capitals, the forward crept in to the back post as Brian Boyle used his lanky frame to fool the netminder into sealing the near post in anticipation. The result was a gorgeous finish to a game where an unlikely hero was desperately needed. If the forward can build on this huge goal, perhaps he can become an X-factor in a series where they are the underdogs. He seems to be confident in the team’s chances.
- The Senators would not go down quietly. Down 2 goals through 40 minutes, the squad rallied to tie the game with tallies from Chris Wideman and Derick Brassard. As mentioned in an earlier post, Chara’s late regulation delay-of-game penalty proved quite costly, as the Senators capitalized on the powerplay’s momentum and ended the overtime quickly. Dion Phaneuf hammered one home after the team had hit two posts previously in quick succession. The series has been incredibly tight, but surely Bruins fans will lament the lost opportunity, especially in light of their badly bruised defensive squad.
- Four games will take place this Sunday. The Wild will try to avoid going down 3-0 in hostile territory, the Blue Jackets will hope to dodge a similar fate with cannons firing, and the Sharks and Rangers look to go up at home after splitting the first two on the road.
Minnesota And The Wild Art Of The 0-2 Comeback
The Minnesota Wild are in a predicament. They have out-shot their opponent 76-53 through 137 minutes of hockey, created the majority of the scoring chances, and dominated advanced stats. But they are down 0-2 in their series, largely due to the heroics of St. Louis net-minder Jake Allen. Per Elias Sports, teams that go down in a series 2-0 only have a 14.1% chance of winning the series. After all, winning 4 of 5 after is no simple task. This is only made more difficult by the fact that Minnesota lost its home ice advantage and has to split in St. Louis to avoid a sweep.
In Minnesota’s current situation, the main contributing factor to the struggles is a snakebitten offensive core. A few players have been on cold streaks, including captain Mikko Koivu who hasn’t scored in his last 16. Perhaps more important is the strength of St. Louis defense over the last 10 games, only surrendering 21 goals. In order for Minnesota to regain a foothold, one of these trends will need to reverse. A goal per game, even against a prime Patrick Roy, simply isn’t good enough.
All over but the crying, right? Well, not quite. Although a 14.1% chance sounds like a longshot, there are more factors to success than one might consider. PDO can really only trend upwards from here, and the bounces are far more likely to turn than not. There is due reason to suspect the unlikely. Minnesota is intimately familiar with the back of the twine – they finished only 2 behind Pittsburgh at 183 Goals For on the season, despite a roster with far fewer superstar names. Devan Dubnyk actually had a better season than Jake Allen 5v5, and is certainly capable of stealing a game of his own. And St. Louis has had wild swings of fortune just as often as Minnesota has. Minnesota, evidenced by a wonderful Wilderness writeup, was indeed beginning to trend back upward. The team stumbled mightily through early March, but recovered quite nicely in the home stretch – winning their last 4 games in convincing fashion. By their relatively dominant, but ultimately fruitless, on-ice performances in the first 2 games, one might believe these successes were not aberrations.
If we discount the overblown importance of home ice advantage in modern hockey, the situation seems far more salvageable than many observers might believe. As Bruce Boudreau said, “it’s not as dire as they think.” They just should be sure to win the next one.
Snapshots: Kuznetsov, Michalek, Penguins
Among the many pieces of interest in Isabelle Khurshudyan’s excellent profile of Evgeny Kuznetsov for the Washington Post, was the fact that the 24-year old center would love to stay in Washington for his whole career, and that Capitals’ GM Brian MacLellan admits a long-term deal could be in the future. Kuznetsov is a restricted free agent this summer and is coming off another excellent season with 59 points in 82 games—already the third season in which he’s played at least 80. That durability is a big part of why he’s such an important piece for the Capitals to lock up long-term, but it won’t be easy for them to do so this summer.
Washington has quite a bit of money coming off the books, and with Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky, Brett Connolly, Dmitry Orlov, Nate Schmidt, Phillip Grubauer and a host of minor league players all set to become restricted free agents, it is still going to be a tight squeeze. Should the team want to re-sign any of the excellent veterans—T.J. Oshie, Karl Alzner, Kevin Shattenkirk and Justin Williams to name a few—that are heading to unrestricted free agency, it will be even tighter. Handing out long-term deals may seem like a good idea, but it just might not be possible for everyone in Washington.
- The Minnesota Wild have called up Steve Michalek from the AHL to serve as their third goaltender tonight. In the playoffs, teams often carry an emergency netminder in case something happens to one of theirs in the warm-up. As Michael Russo of the Star Tribune explains, this will likely be Alex Stalock after the next two Iowa Wild games. Stalock started two games down the stretch for the Wild over Darcy Kuemper, and it is still unknown who would go into the net should Devan Dubnyk falter or suffer an injury.
- The Pittsburgh Penguins recent history with turning minor league players into capable NHLers helped them land one of the biggest NCAA prizes this spring, as Shawn P. Roarke of NHL.com writes in his latest piece. Zach Aston-Reese admits that it was part of his decision to sign there: “to see how much [AHL players] have grown as players and contributed to the team’s success at the NHL level, that was really attractive.” Conor Sheary, Bryan Rust and Tom Kuhnackl are all prime examples of what starting off your young players in the minors can do for their development, as the Penguins head into the playoffs with a lot riding on players like those three.
Minnesota Wild Sign UMD Defenseman Carson Soucy
The Minnesota Wild have wrapped up an immensely successful regular season and have turned their attention toward preparing for the postseason, but the front office is still working hard to prepare for the future. The Wild announced this evening that they have inked 2013 fifth-round pick Carson Soucy to a two-year entry-level contract that will begin in 2017-18. Soucy will join the AHL’s Iowa Wild for the remainder of the season.
Soucy is coming off a strong season playing for NCAA runner-up, the University of Minnesota-Duluth. The 6’4″ 22-year-old defenseman was a dominant force skating on the Bulldogs’ top pairing as they fought for the top spot in the nation all season long. Soucy, who wore the “A” in his senior season, was a model of defensive responsibility and physical play for four seasons in Duluth. Although he lack much offensive upside, with a career-high 15 points this season, he makes up for it in a solid stay at home game.
Although the Wild are known for having one of the deepest defensive units in hockey, their strength is also their weakness in the upcoming Expansion Draft. Able to protect only three or four defenseman, Minnesota faces a conundrum with five defenseman on the roster that would be very attractive to George McPhee and the Vegas Golden Knights. Ryan Suter must be protected, but it seems likely that only two of Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin, Marco Scandella, and Matt Dumba will join him. One of the other two is prime for the picking. With that in mind, the Wild have begun stockpiling young depth options like Gustav Olofsson, Mike Reilly, and now Soucy. Assuming Minnesota is out a defenseman this summer, Soucy has a chance to make his NHL debut next season if his defensive game translates to the next level.
Saturday Snapshots: Final Saturday Of The Regular Season
8:48pm: The Toronto Maple Leafs defeated the Pittsburgh Penguins 5-3, clinching a playoff spot for the first time since 2013. Despite losing goaltender Frederik Andersen, the Leafs rallied for three goals in the third to punch their ticket to the playoffs. TSN’s Bob McKenzie sums up the seedings with tomorrow’s results. If Toronto gets one point tomorrow, they will take on Ottawa in the first round while Boston faces off against Washington. Should they lose, they draw Washington and the Bruins get Ottawa.
2:54 pm: Today is the second last day of the regular season, and as such, there’s a lot going on around the National Hockey League. The entire playoff bracket can be finalized this evening, stars will be healthy scratched, and milestones hit.
Playoff Matchups:
- Two Eastern Conference matchups have already been set: Canadiens vs Rangers and Penguins vs Blue Jackets. Another could be set tonight, if Toronto, Ottawa, and Boston all win. That would mean Capitals vs Maple Leafs. Should the Maple Leafs lose while the other two win, then that would guarantee Senators vs Bruins.
- Wild vs Blues is clinched by a St. Louis win or a Nashville loss.
- Oilers vs Sharks would be clinched by:
- An Oilers extra-time loss vs the Canucks tonight, OR
- An Oilers regulation loss and a Sharks loss in any fashion.
- Blackhawks vs Predators happens if:
- The Predators lose in regulation, OR
- The Flames win and the Blues get a single point, OR
- The Flames and Predators both lose in OT.
- The Flames would take on the Ducks if:
- The Oilers lose, the Blues get a point, and the Flames win, OR
- The Oilers lose, and both the Flames and Predators lose in OT, OR
- The Oilers lose, and the Predators lose in regulation.
- The Flames would take on the Blackhawks if Calgary loses and the Predators win.
- The Ducks would take on the Predators if:
- Both Edmonton and Calgary lose, and the Predators win, OR
- Nashville gets a point, while Edmonton loses and Calgary loses in regulation.
Other clinching scenarios:
- The Oilers clinch home-ice with a single point. They visit Vancouver tonight, and host them tomorrow.
- The Ducks clinch the Pacific Division with an Oilers loss of any kind.
- To pass Anaheim and win the Pacific, the Oilers would need to sweep the Canucks this weekend and have Anaheim lose to Los Angeles tomorrow.
- Should the Toronto Maple Leafs win tonight against the visiting Pittsburgh Penguins, Toronto will clinch a playoff spot for the first time since 2013. That would eliminate the New York Islanders and Tampa Bay Lightning.
- The Islanders could also be eliminated with a regulation loss or any kind of loss if the Maple Leafs get a single point.
- UPDATE: Ottawa clinched home ice by defeating the Rangers, 3-1.
- They defeat the Rangers today, OR
- Boston and Toronto lose in regulation, OR
- The Bruins and Senators each get a single point combined with a Maple Leafs OT loss.
Scratches:
- The Penguins are resting a handful of players, but not their captain. Regulars Nick Bonino, Brian Dumoulin, Patric Hornqvist, Matt Murray, and Bryan Rust will all be healthy scratches, however Sidney Crosby will dress. Forward Kevin Porter and goaltender Tristan Jarry have been called up to fill out the lineup; Jarry will back up Marc-Andre Fleury. The Penguins coach, Mike Sullivan, told TSN that he’s aware of what’s on the line for the Maple Leafs, but re-iterated that his priority is to do what’s best for the team “in the short-term and the long-term. Having said that the lineup we put in will be competitive.”
- The Canucks will be without the services of Sven Baertschi for this weekend’s home-and-home with the Oilers. Postmedia’s Ben Kuzma reports that Baertschi may have hurt his shoulder or neck on Thursday vs the Coyotes.
- The Senators will be resting several players. Their lineup isn’t known yet, but Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch suggested Craig Anderson, Mike Hoffman, Dion Phaneuf, Kyle Turris, and Viktor Stalberg as possibilities.
Milestones:
- Oilers captain Connor McDavid could become just the fifth player to score 100 points since 2010. He’s sitting at 97 points in 80 games, the seventh-most points in a season during in that time frame. Only Evgeni Malkin, Daniel Sedin, Crosby, and Patrick Kane have cracked the century-mark this decade. McDavid is nine points ahead of Crosby and Kane for the NHL scoring lead, and looks poised to take home the Art Ross in his first full season at age 20.
- With one more goal this season, Auston Matthews can become the fifteenth rookie in NHL history to score 40 goals. Currently, he’s tied with Crosby, Steve Yzerman, and Peter and Anton Stastny at 39. Kings’ coach Darryl Sutter, Sylvain Turgeon, and Warren Young all scored 40 goals in their rookie seasons.
NCAA All-American Teams Named
Prior to the reveal of University of Denver defenseman Will Butcher as the 2017 Hobey Baker Award-winner and ahead of the NCAA championship game tomorrow night, the American Hockey Coaches Association released the rosters of this year’s collegiate All-American Teams. The teams, first and second squads from either side of the country, are listed below with their NCAA teams as well as NHL-drafted or signed organization, if applicable:
East All-Americans
First Team:
RW Zach Aston-Reese, Northeastern (Pittsburgh Penguins)
RW Spencer Foo, Union
C Mike Vecchione, Union (Philadelphia Flyers)
D Adam Fox, Harvard (Calgary Flames)
D Charlie McAvoy, Boston University (Boston Bruins)
G Charles Williams, Canisius
Morning Moves: Connor, Roslovic, Holmstrom, Vermin
The Winnipeg Jets have decided to bring up a pair of top prospects, recalling both Kyle Connor and Jack Roslovic from the Manitoba Moose. Both first-round picks in 2015, they are the next wave of talented youngsters for Winnipeg to build around. Connor made his NHL debut at the beginning of the season, playing nineteen games with the Jets and registering four points. He has dominated the AHL since his return with 42 points in 45 games.
Roslovic on the other hand has yet to skate in an NHL game, but should be just as touted as a prospect. With 45 points in 61 games in the AHL while playing a more demanding position (center), Roslovic looks like a top-six option for the Jets down the line. The 20-year olds will get another taste down the stretch and both vie for full-time NHL gigs next season.
- The Red Wings have called up Evgeny Svechnikov from the AHL under emergency conditions. The Russian prospect is expected to make his NHL debut tonight, according to Ansar Khan of MLive. Likely the top prospect in the Red Wings system that hadn’t seen NHL ice yet, Svechnikov will be a key part of any rebuild Detroit tries. His offensive upside is tremendous, both on the rush and off the cycle.
- Khan also reports that Axel Holmstrom has joined the Grand Rapids Griffins, now that his Swedish season has ended. The seventh-round pick of the Red Wings in 2014, Holmstrom is a 20-year old forward who has been playing in the Swedish men’s league for several years. A star at the World Juniors in both 2015 and 2016, his international success has shown an ability to skate alongside some of the more skilled players in the world (like William Nylander) and not miss a beat.
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have added another transaction to the lengthening list for Joel Vermin. The forward was sent back down to the Syracuse Crunch today after his latest stint in the NHL. Vermin has been the insurance policy for a team ravaged by injuries this season, playing in 17 games spread across many different call-ups.
- Minnesota has decided to send Alex Stalock back down to the AHL, after making two starts in the place of Darcy Kuemper while the team was struggling. Stalock actually performed quite well in both, stopping 51 of a combined 54 shots. It will be interesting to see what the Wild do in the playoffs if Kuemper doesn’t bounce back in his next opportunity to back up Devan Dubnyk.
- The Columbus Blue Jackets have recalled Sonny Milano from the Cleveland Monsters amid his excellent sophomore season. The 20-year old first-round pick has 43 points in 59 games and has continually shown off his incredible offensive upside. A highlight-reel player, Milano provide some amazing moments but still has work to do to become a top player in the NHL. His all-around game isn’t at a top-line level, but with a few games at the end of the season he may get to see what it takes to become a star in the NHL.
Blackhawks Notes: Division Champs, Kane, Panarin, Hossa
Despite a slow start and a roster that doesn’t glimmer like some of those from seasons past, the Chicago Blackhawks topped the 50-win mark and clinched the #1 seed in the Western Conference. The Chicago Tribune’s Chris Hine writes that the Hawks added a division title as well in a fight that was carried by the Minnesota Wild for most of the season. But as the Wild began to fade in March, the Hawks steamrolled their way to an impressive season finish. Hine writes that it’s only the second time the Blackhawks have reached 50 wins, and thanks to a run that saw 17 victories in 20 games, Chicago finds themselves sitting pretty as the playoffs are just a week away. As has been the custom over the past decade, the Hawks continue to defy the odds of a league built on parity.
- The Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Lazerus notes that a key ingredient to the Blackhawk resurgence has been the timely arrival of the core players. Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin, and Jonathan Toews have rotated in their importance as Chicago rolled through February and March. Lazerus writes that Panarin is ending this season strong with five points (4-1) in his last three games and is just one of many in Chicago getting hot at the right time. Kane was named the third star of the month for March, registering 22 points (12-10) in 16 games. Toews started his ascent months earlier in the winter after a challenging start that saw him miss time due to a back injury. The ageless Marian Hossa has four goals in his last six games and younger players Richard Panik, and Nick Schmaltz have been nearly point-per-game players in their last half dozen contests. Though he’ll rest his starters as the season winds down, head coach Joel Quenneville believes that with the Hawks’ top players playing so well, it only bodes well for the team during the grueling playoff run.
- Hine also pens an article about Hossa, who is more than happy to show “he’s still got it” after an off year in 2015-16. Seeing a silver lining in last year’s early playoff exit, Hine writes that Hossa took the time to recuperate and train to be better for this season. The 38-year-old winger also credits his ice time with younger players like Tanner Kero for helping him “feel fresher” with the Blackhawks. Hine adds that Hossa’s scoring knack is a key ingredient for a long playoff run in Chicago.
Morning Notes: Patrick, Johnson, Parise
Thought the Brandon Wheat Kings came into their WHL playoff series as underdogs, it looked like the series could be a long one because of Nolan Patrick and his recent dominance. Instead Patrick would never appear in the series, held out with a lower-body injury for all four of the Medicine Hat Tigers victories. A 3-2 win last night showed how lopsided the series was without Patrick, as the Tigers out shot Brandon 54-25.
It has been a very disappointing year for Patrick, who missed a large chunk of the season, the World Juniors and now the playoffs. Mike Morreale of NHL.com still thinks he’ll go first overall, and reminds us of some of the other injuries to top players in their draft year or immediately following. Patrick’s only real competition for the #1 spot is Nico Hischier of the Halifax Mooseheads, who was excellent in tying up his QMJHL series at 2-2. Hischier had four hits, was 10/16 on faceoffs and scored the game winner on the powerplay.
- Tyler Johnson was back out on the ice before Tampa Bay Lightning practice today and though he’s still not sure when he’ll get back into the lineup, he told Bryan Burns of NHL.com he hopes to soon. “I better [return] or I’m going to be pretty upset,” he told Burns after the skate. Johnson has been out since the March 9th game that saw three Tampa Bat centers hurt, and would be a huge boost to a club still right in the thick of the playoff race. With Steven Stamkos upgraded to day-to-day (and taking line rushes on the top unit today), Tampa Bay might be getting healthy just in time to make some noise in the final few weeks of the season.
- Michael Russo of the Star Tribune reports that Zach Parise was out skating at the optional practice for the Minnesota Wild today. Parise took a stick in the eye on Tuesday night and had to leave the game, a scary moment for Wild fans and players alike. The alternate captain was in all kinds of agony on the ice after smashing his head on the way down. Russo reports that though he’s likely to miss tonight’s game against the Ottawa Senators, he may return sooner than many expected. The Wild need to get back on track after going 1-7-2 in their last ten and falling within striking distance of the St. Louis Blues. While they’re definitely going to make the playoffs, if they continue playing as they are right now it would be an early exit.
Snapshots: Protected List, Stalock, Fritz
The NHL has announced that it will now release publicly both the protected and available lists for the upcoming expansion draft when they are distributed to teams around the league. This comes as a reversal of their previous decision, and one that fans will embrace. While the front offices of many teams likely didn’t want the list to become public because of potential public relations or player morale problems—incessant critiquing of their jobs is something they live with, but not something they enjoy—it is something that fans of the sport wanted so overwhelmingly that the league will now consent.
Expected to be released on June 18th, the actual date of the release has not yet been announced. Either way, it will be an exiting day for fans and media members alike that will have a few days to pick through the rosters and project who will be picked by the Vegas Golden Knights. Teams must submit their protected list on the 17th, while the team will be announced at some point on the 21st.
- Alex Stalock has been recalled by the Minnesota Wild, and he is expected to make the start tomorrow night against the Ottawa Senators. The team will give Devan Dubnyk three days off before he returns Saturday, given his struggles this month. After leading the league in save percentage for much of the season, Dubnyk has posted an .889 number in March as the team has fallen out of first place in the Central Division. Stalock will be making his first NHL start since February of last season.
- The New York Islanders have signed Tanner Fritz to a two-year extension starting next season. It will be a two-way deal, and Fritz had been playing on an AHL deal with the Bridgeport Sound Tigers up to this point. The former Ohio State Buckeye broke out this season in the AHL, scoring 40 points in 61 games. The 25-year old is still waiting for his NHL debut, but this is a solid step in that direction.
- Dallas has recalled young defenseman Julius Honka from the AHL, bringing him back up for the end of the season. Honka, the team’s first-round pick from 2014, played ten games for the team earlier this year and did not look overmatched. He has excelled in his three years at the AHL level, recording at least 31 points in each season and generally moving the puck with swift, crisp passes. He’ll get another tryout this spring before likely being installed full-time on the blue line for the Stars next year.