Latest On Bo Horvat’s Contract Situation
With the Vancouver Canucks losing Nikita Tryamkin to the KHL today, GM Jim Benning met with media to discuss several topics. One of those was the upcoming negotiations with Bo Horvat on a new deal that would keep him in Vancouver long-term. Benning said that they’ve been in contact with Horvat’s camp and will meet “in the next little while” to start hammering out what his next contract will look like. He didn’t seem at all worried about it getting done, and said that there would be no deadline placed on it and could even take “all summer”.
Horvat’s next deal has long been a focus of the front office, and after another step forward in his development this year he looks in prime position to be awarded a long-term deal. With 20 goals and 52 points, the 22-year old center has shown that he is the future in Vancouver and the key piece for Benning and the rest of the front office to build around. In January, Ben Kuzma of the Province suggested that Vincent Trocheck‘s six-year, $28.5MM extension would be a nice comparable, but with Horvat finding even more consistency through his first three years he may eclipse that.
The Vancouver Center doesn’t have quite the lofty statistics that Sean Monahan had when he inked his seven-year, $44.63MM deal last summer, and may find himself land somewhere in between. Depending on how many years of free agency he gives up, his deal could break $5MM per season, making him the fourth highest paid player on the Canucks, behind only the Sedins and Loui Eriksson. For a player that must reach his potential if the Canucks are to make their rebuild successful, Horvat’s contract negotiations will be the most interesting story of the summer for Vancouver fans—that is, other than the entry draft and the chance to pair Horvat with one of Nolan Patrick or Nico Hischier down the middle for the next decade.
The Radulov Factor: Signing KHL Talent
As the 14 teams who didn’t make the playoffs can certainly attest, there is a fine line between making noise and sliding to irrelevance. One look no further than the Colorado Avalanche to realize that one off-season of poor decisions and a bad string of luck can complete derail a season beyond salvage. A solid signing can put you right back into the mix. Stagnation can mean failure, and of course, loss of fan interest as well as precious revenue.
This off-season, with the UFA class looking more sparse than ever, teams will be hunting for NHL talent on cheap contracts. Many teams will seek the help of the undrafted NCAAer, and with good reason. However, Montreal’s tactic of paying a steep contract for a KHL superstar has paid dividends, through the season and now in the playoffs. Alexander Radulov had his fair share of nay-sayers, as his experience with Nashville didn’t go particularly well. And an anti-Russian, anti-European bias does always seem to sneak into the conversation whenever overseas talent is concerned. Artemi Panarin had plenty of suitors, to be sure, but even he was compensated less than what he realistically deserved. In his first season, the young star tallied 30 goals and 77 points on a line with Patrick Kane. Not much of an adjustment faze.
Let’s look at a trio of names that have been, or should be, tossed into the ring for teams’ consideration in the near future:
Jan Kovar (C) – Metallurg Magnitogorsk
Kovar has been mentioned from time to time for years, as an intriguing top forward for the star-studded Magnitogorsk. Talks to come over to the NHL have unfortunately never gotten particularly serious. Kovar scored 63 points in 59 games this past year, lead the Gagarin Cup playoffs with 25 points, and is still a decently spry 27 years-old. The Czech-born center is listed at only 5’10”, but as we have seen with Vladimir Sobotka, size isn’t always a deal-breaker. He is known for his solid shot and ability to create chances from very little. His playmaking abilities have only gotten better with age. Although his World Championship point totals aren’t fantastic, he would be a low-risk addition for any fringe team in need of offensive flair, or depth up the middle.
Evgeny Dadonov (RW) – SKA St. Petersburg
The former Florida Panther has been nothing short of phenomenal for SKA in the past year. During the team’s title run, the forward pulled off Datsyuk-ian moves with relative ease. He has previous ties to Carolina, and whatever they could offer should be matched by any other bottom-feeding team in the division – this player has the serious potential to burn defensemen for years. He could also be a complete bust, like he was his first time through. But the maturity that comes with multiple playoff runs and being trusted in a leadership role shouldn’t be under-estimated. Even in light of the NHL’s decision to avoid the Olympics, Dadonov is expected to strongly consider a return to the league. His pricetag may be an issue, however. Here’s hoping the cost isn’t a sticking point, because his remarkable creativity would be a welcome sight on NHL ice.
Emil Garipov (G) – Ak Bars Kazan
Yes, the goalie market is flooded with capable tenders already. Yes, you’ve probably never heard of this guy. Yes, no team has any rumored interest of late. But franchises struggling with goalie depth would be bonkers to not at least pick up the phone on this kid with the statlines he’s put up. At 25 years-old, Garipov is just hitting his prime years as a netminder. He kept his team afloat yet again with another strong showing in a KHL career that has been remarkably strong. His career save percentage is well above .930 and he survived an absolute barrage of shots last season with veteran poise. Garipov is technically sharp and he exudes a confidence that is well beyond his years. He also never quits on a play, which can be evidenced by scores of highlights such as these. Worst case scenario – you acquire a backup who struggles. But Garipov has shown flashes of next-level athleticism and focus which suggest that he could be capable of making the leap.
Of course, the Olympic situation complicates any potential KHL hoppers this summer. How much of a deterrent the Pyeongchang decision will be for Europeans remains to be seen, but as Radulov evidences on a nightly basis, the rewards for thinking outside the box can be great indeed.
Jack Eichel Responds To Contract Reports
Earlier today it was reported by Paul Hamilton of WGR 550 that Jack Eichel had “no desire” to sign an extension this summer should Dan Bylsma be retained as the coach in Buffalo. Immediately, agent Peter Fish reached out to John Vogl of The Buffalo News to try and put out the fire created by the report, saying that it was “ridiculous” and that everyone was misunderstanding what had gone on. Now, Vogl has released an interview with Eichel himself, which goes into detail about how he’s dealt with the news today.
I want to be a Sabre and I want to be a Sabre for a long time and I want to be a part of Buffalo when we win. I know it’s an organization that is capable of doing that, and I want to be a part of it and I want to be a centerpiece of it.
I want to be here for a long time. That’s the way I look at it. I don’t want to go anywhere else. I don’t want anybody to think that I want to be somewhere else. I want to be here, and I want to help this team win in any way that I can do that. I just want all the people there to know that.
Eichel made it very clear that he wishes to remain in Buffalo long-term, and that his conversation with Bylsma at the end of the year was very productive. He left that meeting thinking that they were “on the same page” about where the team was headed, and what the coach expected of him. While he doesn’t come right out and say it, it very much seems like Eichel is fine with going forward with Bylsma, regardless of whether or not they were in disagreement at times this year.
It’s not common for an athlete to come out and address the rumors so candidly, and Eichel should be praised for that. For a player who has been surrounded by nothing but disappointment since his entering the league—even the disappointment in Buffalo that they missed out on Connor McDavid despite finishing last in the NHL—it is obviously bothering him that he hasn’t been able to turn around the franchise to this point.
If Eichel does in fact head into a negotiation with the Sabres this offseason, it will be interesting to see where a contract would land for him going forward. Nathan MacKinnon was three years into his career when he signed his seven-year extension in Colorado, which will pay him $44.1MM ($6.3MM AAV) and buy out three UFA years. Tyler Seguin gave up just two free agent years when he signed his six-year, $34.5MM ($5.75MM AAV) deal in 2012 two years into his career with worse numbers than Eichel.
Depending on how many seasons of free agency he gives up, inking an extension now after a season marred by injury may be the best thing for the Sabres but worst for Eichel. If he trusts that he’ll succeed next season, he would be putting himself in a greater position of leverage and could easily surpass both MacKinnon and Seguin’s deals by signing an eight-year extension. It will be interesting to see where the dollar mark lands, and if the two sides can come to an agreement on length. If Eichel really does want to be a Sabre for a long time, there is a clear want from Buffalo to keep him around.
James Neal, Consistency & Free Agency
If you were to try and name the six players who have scored at least 20 goals in nine consecutive seasons, you may get the first five with ease. Alex Ovechkin, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Phil Kessel and Jeff Carter have all been considered superstars in the league, are perennial all-star candidates and are on the front of the proverbial cereal box in each of their respective NHL cities. The last one, James Neal, doesn’t have that same type of reputation, but perhaps he should. Neal has never been asked to play for Canada at the Olympics, nor was he a part of the World Cup team that won gold this fall. That hasn’t stopped him from being one of the most consistent goal scorers in the NHL for nearly a decade. 
Starting in 2008-09 as a 21-year old rookie, Neal would score 24 goals for the Dallas Stars and start his improbable streak. Since then he’s scored 215 more regular season goals, including 40 in 2011-12 alongside Evgeni Malkin and stepping up in the absence of an injured Sidney Crosby. That remains his best output, but at 29 he’s still as reliable as ever for the Nashville Predators, and is in the playoffs for the seventh straight season. He hasn’t registered a goal yet in the series against the Chicago Blackhawks, but it’s only a matter of time.
In the middle of the 2012 season, just before the trade deadline, Neal signed a six-year extension with the Penguins that bought out three UFA years and paid him a reasonable $5MM per season. That deal will expire after next season, and Neal is in line for another substantial contract. In fact, Kessel is an interesting comparison for Neal, as the Predators’ winger actually has a better goals-per-game rate than the Pittsburgh sniper, and is just a month older than him. Kessel of course started his career at a younger age, and signed an eight-year, $64MM extension with the Maple Leafs in 2013 that was seen as an albatross just two years later. The Penguins certainly aren’t complaining, but would the Predators if they had to hand out a similar annual value?
Kessel provides more offense on a whole, but Neal’s contributions at both ends of the rink shouldn’t be overlooked. He’s a much better possession player than Kessel in the defensive zone, and provides a more physical game. While $8MM per season does seem a bit out of reach, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him approach $7MM with another good offensive season. That might sound absurd to many, but his 0.71 points-per-game rate over the past nine years puts him right around players like Bobby Ryan, T.J. Oshie, and Jakub Voracek, two of which already make more than that—Ryan makes $7.25MM and Voracek makes $8.25MM—and another who will ride a 30-goal season this year into a contract that approaches it.
For Predators fans, this all likely comes as no surprise, as Neal has been a huge part of that team for several years. But for many fans of the NHL, they might not realize just how effective Neal has been now for nearly a decade in the NHL. That consistency will get paid off next summer, if the Predators don’t decide to extend him before then. For now, he’ll look to help them slay the Blackhawks and move to the second round before focusing on anything else.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Expansion Requirements Still Needing Attention
For teams outside the playoffs, preparation for the summer months starts early. Free agency, coaching staffs, prospect profiles and this year, another interesting workload: the Expansion Draft. For many teams, much of the work to prepare for the expansion draft was already done during the season. We saw extensions for players like Michal Rozsival, trades for fringe forwards like Eric Fehr, and goaltenders given contracts without ever really making an NHL impact.
But still there remains much to be done in preparation for the draft, and contracts should come out over the next month to protect teams from an unexpected loss. Each team must expose at least two forwards and one defender who is both a) under contract for 2017-18 and b) played either 40 games in 2016-17 OR a total of 70 games in 2015-16 and 2016-17 combined. They must also expose one goaltender who is either under contract for 2017-18 or will be an RFA this summer. While much of this depends on who each team decides to protect, these are the situations that will likely see a move or extension handed out before the deadline.
Arizona Coyotes
The Coyotes currently have just three forwards who could fill this requirement: Jamie McGinn, Tobias Rieder and Brad Richardson. While Richardson is an easy choice, the other two don’t deserve to be exposed even if McGinn did have a disappointing year. The easy way to solve it would be extend Josh Jooris, who qualifies but doesn’t have a contract past this season currently. Peter Holland could also be sacrificed, though it’s unclear whether the front office believes in him as a piece going forward for this team.
Snapshots: Kuznetsov, Michalek, Penguins
Among the many pieces of interest in Isabelle Khurshudyan’s excellent profile of Evgeny Kuznetsov for the Washington Post, was the fact that the 24-year old center would love to stay in Washington for his whole career, and that Capitals’ GM Brian MacLellan admits a long-term deal could be in the future. Kuznetsov is a restricted free agent this summer and is coming off another excellent season with 59 points in 82 games—already the third season in which he’s played at least 80. That durability is a big part of why he’s such an important piece for the Capitals to lock up long-term, but it won’t be easy for them to do so this summer.
Washington has quite a bit of money coming off the books, and with Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky, Brett Connolly, Dmitry Orlov, Nate Schmidt, Phillip Grubauer and a host of minor league players all set to become restricted free agents, it is still going to be a tight squeeze. Should the team want to re-sign any of the excellent veterans—T.J. Oshie, Karl Alzner, Kevin Shattenkirk and Justin Williams to name a few—that are heading to unrestricted free agency, it will be even tighter. Handing out long-term deals may seem like a good idea, but it just might not be possible for everyone in Washington.
- The Minnesota Wild have called up Steve Michalek from the AHL to serve as their third goaltender tonight. In the playoffs, teams often carry an emergency netminder in case something happens to one of theirs in the warm-up. As Michael Russo of the Star Tribune explains, this will likely be Alex Stalock after the next two Iowa Wild games. Stalock started two games down the stretch for the Wild over Darcy Kuemper, and it is still unknown who would go into the net should Devan Dubnyk falter or suffer an injury.
- The Pittsburgh Penguins recent history with turning minor league players into capable NHLers helped them land one of the biggest NCAA prizes this spring, as Shawn P. Roarke of NHL.com writes in his latest piece. Zach Aston-Reese admits that it was part of his decision to sign there: “to see how much [AHL players] have grown as players and contributed to the team’s success at the NHL level, that was really attractive.” Conor Sheary, Bryan Rust and Tom Kuhnackl are all prime examples of what starting off your young players in the minors can do for their development, as the Penguins head into the playoffs with a lot riding on players like those three.
Minnesota Wild Sign UMD Defenseman Carson Soucy
The Minnesota Wild have wrapped up an immensely successful regular season and have turned their attention toward preparing for the postseason, but the front office is still working hard to prepare for the future. The Wild announced this evening that they have inked 2013 fifth-round pick Carson Soucy to a two-year entry-level contract that will begin in 2017-18. Soucy will join the AHL’s Iowa Wild for the remainder of the season.
Soucy is coming off a strong season playing for NCAA runner-up, the University of Minnesota-Duluth. The 6’4″ 22-year-old defenseman was a dominant force skating on the Bulldogs’ top pairing as they fought for the top spot in the nation all season long. Soucy, who wore the “A” in his senior season, was a model of defensive responsibility and physical play for four seasons in Duluth. Although he lack much offensive upside, with a career-high 15 points this season, he makes up for it in a solid stay at home game.
Although the Wild are known for having one of the deepest defensive units in hockey, their strength is also their weakness in the upcoming Expansion Draft. Able to protect only three or four defenseman, Minnesota faces a conundrum with five defenseman on the roster that would be very attractive to George McPhee and the Vegas Golden Knights. Ryan Suter must be protected, but it seems likely that only two of Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin, Marco Scandella, and Matt Dumba will join him. One of the other two is prime for the picking. With that in mind, the Wild have begun stockpiling young depth options like Gustav Olofsson, Mike Reilly, and now Soucy. Assuming Minnesota is out a defenseman this summer, Soucy has a chance to make his NHL debut next season if his defensive game translates to the next level.
Conor Sheary, Free Agency And Leverage
When Conor Sheary began the season he was entering the second and final year of his entry-level contract, and coming off a Stanley Cup victory and a strong playoff performance. He’d duplicated his regular season point total in the postseason with 10 points and looked like a solid depth player for a team looking to contend once again. 
He’d spent time with Sidney Crosby in the playoffs and had great results, so the Penguins decided to try it again. What has happened this year has been magic. Sheary has blossomed into an exceptional offensive player alongside Crosby, scoring 53 points in 60 games, a rate that betters even his strong numbers at the University of Massachusetts and the AHL.
Heading into the summer, Sheary is a restricted free agent for the first time in his career and arbitration eligible. He’ll be looking for a big raise after such a successful season, and the Penguins will have to decide if he’s a long-term piece. Many would point to Crosby’s presence and think that Sheary wouldn’t have much leverage, that the diminutive winger would have trouble replicating his numbers without one of the game’s premiere centers beside him. As usual, it’s not that simple.
While Sheary is obviously helped a tremendous amount by Crosby’s presence, it works both ways. Without delving too far into the analytics world, it’s clear that Sheary has an effect on the duo’s dominance. Since the beginning of 2015 without Sheary (via Corsica), Crosby has a 53 CF% a simple metric of shots attempted and allowed during a player’s time on the ice. Sheary, in a small sample without Crosby, has the same number. But together the pair skyrocket up to a 56 CF%, showing how well their games mesh with each other. Crosby has found success like that with other players throughout his career, but there have also been several excellent players who just “don’t mesh” with his style and can’t play alongside him.
So then, when the two sides enter the negotiating room this summer it is not just the Penguins acting from a position of leverage. His presence on Crosby’s wing makes their star player even better than he already was, and don’t think the Sheary camp doesn’t know it. Even with just a single season of success, and a checkered history when it comes to development and performance, Sheary should be able to use his chemistry with one of the league’s top players and turn it into a long-term deal. After all, there is no guarantee anyone else could have the same effect.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Checking In On Unsigned Draft Picks
As we close out the 2016-17 NHL season teams continue to sign their prospects to entry-level deals, bringing them over from whichever league they’ve played in around the world and installing them into their own systems. CapFriendly reminds us today of all the draft picks that will become free agents should they remain unsigned on June 1st of this year.
Buffalo Sabres
Devante Stephens (5th round, 2015)
Giorgio Estephan (6th round, 2015)
Gustav Possler (5th round, 2013)
Calgary Flames
Riley Bruce (7th round, 2015)
Carolina Hurricanes
Steven Lorentz (7th round, 2015)
Ken Holland And The Red Wings Rebuild
Two postseasons ago before he left Hockeytown for hockey’s Mecca in Toronto, head coach Mike Babcock made a blunt assessment of the Red Wings’ future following a bitter 2-0 loss in Game 7 against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Babcock said this:
“Our team is not as good as it was. It’s very evident. We battled our butt off just to get in the playoffs. You are what you are. [Tampa Bay] had a young team that have been around long enough to rebuild it. They’ve got young players at key positions. Three of our best players are 34, 35, 37. Any way you look at it, we’re a team that has changed a ton of players and added a lot of youth to our lineup, but nobody on the outside picked us to be a Stanley Cup contender.”
Missing the playoffs for the first time in a quarter century didn’t come as a surprise to many in Detroit. And while Babcock has his Maple Leafs on an accelerated path for what was supposed to be a “painful” rebuild, the Red Wings find themselves older, injured, and looking on the outside of the playoffs for the first time since Steve Yzerman wore the C.
Those in Detroit hoping for a Toronto-like teardown might be disappointed, however, as general manager Ken Holland believes his team needs a few tweaks to compete again. Though this is admirable for a general manager to fight for his team, it doesn’t seem all that reasonable as the Red Wings struggled to score goals, had major players regress, and find themselves financially strapped with several long term, high priced contracts. Curiously, senior vice president Jimmy Devellano was quoted as saying “the rebuild is on” which spoke opposite to what the general manager of the club said.
Holland, who spoke with Toronto’s Fan 590 and also the Hockey News’ Ken Campbell, made it abundantly clear that he is not in it for a tear down. With only a year remaining on his contract, Holland may not view it as viable when success in Detroit is measured with Stanley Cups and playoff appearances. But the fact of the matter is that the Red Wings have been sputtering for some time. Specifically:
- Since the retirement of Nicklas Lidstrom, the Red Wings only advanced once beyond the first round. The surprising run in 2013 that saw them squeak into the playoffs and nearly upend eventual champion Chicago seemed more of a red herring than truth when it came to the ability level of the team.
- Elite free agents have avoided Detroit, and those who have signed were nearing the end of their career, like Daniel Alfredsson or Brad Richards. Others, like Stephen Weiss or the second go around with Mikael Samuelsson were massive miscalculations that did little to help the team and in many ways, hindered the progress of younger players.
- Holland, who was the undisputed king of trades before the salary cap, has appeared gun shy to make moves via trade. Instead, he’s been loyal, re-signing the likes of Justin Abdelkader, Darren Helm, Danny DeKeyser, and Jonathan Ericsson to long, expensive deals while seeing little in the way of return. Holland told Campbell that while he’ll work the phones to try and improve the team, other GMs may not “like our players or contracts.” Ironically, many of those contracts they wouldn’t like were offered to current Red Wings by Holland.
The USA Today’s Kevin Allen offered his own take and believes Detroit must rely on youth, and realize that their brand is “stale.” Allen is a non-partisan national writer without any bias to the Wings. If a pair of eyes outside the organization can see this, Holland may want to consider it.
A rebuild provides a chance to change the image of the Detroit Red Wings, which is now one without stars, on the decline, and appears resistant to change. Reading what Holland says now is nearly identical to what he’s said in the past, when the Red Wings were already showing signs of sinking.
Babcock foretold a fall for the Red Wings. Holland has a chance to change course and put the team back on an upward trajectory. But it goes beyond signing older veterans and current players in moving the Wings beyond a fringe playoff team and back into the status of contenders.