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Potential 2016-17 Impact Rookies: Zacha, Barzal, Pulock, Provorov

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Last week Pro Hockey Rumors began profiling first year players who have both a solid chance of making their respective teams and of also impacting their club’s on-ice fortunes this season. We started with four Metro rookies and today we finish up with four more from the same division.

Pavel Zacha (New Jersey) – Zacha, a skilled 6-foot-3, 210-pound pivot, was the Devils first-round choice in the 2015 entry draft, selected sixth overall from the Sarnia Sting of the OHL. In his draft year, Zacha tallied 34 points in 37 games for the Sting and followed that solid performance with a stronger 2015-16 campaign, scoring 28 goals and 64 points in just 51 contests. His terrific play led to the Devils electing to suit him up for the team’s season finale where Zacha recorded two assists in nearly 17 minutes of ice time.

Zacha also appeared for the Devils AHL affiliate in Albany, netting three points (one goal, two assists) in three regular season games and another three points in five postseason contests. Ultimately, Zacha would find himself sidelined due to a hip pointer which knocked him out of the postseason and also prevented him from participating in the team’s summer development camp.

Even after acquiring LW Taylor Hall this summer, the Devils could certainly use additional offensive firepower up front and Zacha’s potential could earn him a spot in training camp. He’s already listed as the the third LW on the team’s depth chart over at Roster Resource, suggesting there isn’t a lot of experienced NHL talent he’ll have to beat out for a spot. Given his level of skill and the opportunity he should be presented with in New Jersey, there’s a reasonable chance Zacha could quickly become one of the Devils top offensive performers.

Matthew Barzal (New York Islanders) – It’s not often a player selected in the middle of the first round make their NHL debuts little more than a year after the draft. But the Islanders need for a scoring line pivot following the loss of Frans Nielsen to Detroit in free agency and Barzal’s skill could lead to a scenario where the 19-year-old center makes the club out of camp.

Barzal made a great impression in camp last year  and was one of the team’s final roster cuts. He returned to his junior team, the Seattle Thunderbirds of the WHL, and got off to a blazing start with seven goals and 40 points in just 22 games. He finished with 88 points in 58 contests with Seattle.

The Islanders made what looks to be in hindsight a brilliant trade to acquire the draft choice used to select Barzal by sending defense prospect Griffin Reinhart to Edmonton for #16 overall along with a 2015 second-round pick. Reinhart had trouble cracking the Oilers lineup despite the dearth of competent defensemen in Edmonton. Meanwhile, Barzal is one of the game’s top prospects and could flourish with the Islanders as soon as this season.

Ryan Pulock (New York Islanders) – Drafted 15th overall by the Islanders in the 2013 entry draft, Pulock is a strong defenseman already with NHL size and a good, hard shot. He made his NHL debut in 2015-16 scoring two goals and 4 points in 15 regular season games. Pulock would also appear in six postseason contests tallying another three points.

Pulock also has extensive pro experience playing for the Islanders AHL affiliate in Bridgeport. In 108 games with the Sound Tigers, Pulock has netted an impressive 24 goals and 30 assists.

The Islanders do boast a solid contingent of top-four blue liners with Nick Leddy, Johnny Boychuck, Calvin de Haan and Travis Hamonic expected to see the lion’s share of defensive work. But there would appear to be an opening on the third pair opposite Thomas Hickey and Pulock should be a near lock to earn that spot. It’s possible playing a sheltered role while receiving some second unit power play time, where his big shot would be quite useful, that Pulock could prove to be a valuable asset on the club’s blue line.

Ivan Provorov (Philadelphia) – In an ideal world the Flyers would likely prefer Provorov to return to Brandon of the WHL for more seasoning. Philadelphia GM Ron Hextall wants young players to be ready for the rigors of the NHL and they simply need to be better than what the team already has on the roster. However, the Flyers currently list both Andrew MacDonald and Mark Streit among their top six defenders leaving open the possibility that a great camp could propel Provorov to a spot with the Flyers.

MacDonald was demoted to the minors to start the 2015-16 campaign despite the minimal cap savings the move created. He was only recalled in February when injuries to several regulars crippled the Flyers blue line depth. Assuming his standing in the eyes of the organization is much the same as it was a year ago, MacDonald shouldn’t prove to be much of an impediment toward Provorov’s chances of sticking with the Flyers.

Streit has had a wonderful career in the NHL but turns 39 in December and is in the final year of his contract with Philadelphia. It wouldn’t be much of a surprise if at some point this season the club moved on from Streit to open up a spot on the blue line for a younger player like Provorov.

The Flyers do boast a lot of prospect depth among their defense corps and it’s possible the team would rather give one of Samuel Morin, Mark Alt, Travis Sanheim or Robert Hagg – all of whom already have professional experience – the first crack to make the team out of camp. However, Provorov has the most upside of the team’s defensive prospects and could force his way into the lineup with a solid preseason performance. While he likely wouldn’t have the same impact as last year’s breakout rookie, Shayne Gostisbehere, Provorov has plenty of talent himself and could provide a boost to the team’s blue line.

 

Snapshots: Islanders, Benning

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Despite their starting goalie’s concerns on the situation, the New York Islanders look to be once again carrying three goaltenders to start this season. Last July, the Islanders signed Thomas Greiss to a two-year contact to back-up Jaroslav Halak. They followed that up by claiming promising young netminder J-F Berube off waivers from the Los Angeles Kings in early October. Because a player claimed on waivers must stay in the NHL or be put through waivers again, the Islanders kept him up. Berube played just seven games in 2015-16. Halak was hurt for extended time and only played 36 games. Backup-in-name-only Greiss made 41 appearances and lead the team through the playoffs, including their first round series win against Florida.

This summer, the Islanders extended Berube for another season. In an interview with NHL.com’s Brian Compton, head coach Jack Capuano said “whether you have eight defensemen or three goalies or 15 forwards … they’re all good players back there, all three of them can help us. We’ll see how it pans out… they’re all quality goaltenders.”

Related: Islanders’ depth chart

Here are some other snapshots from around the NHL:

  • Staying with the Islanders, Compton lists finding Frans Nielsen’s replacement as one of big questions surrounding the team in training camp. There’s a handful of in-house options, including Ryan Strome. The fifth overall pick in 2011 had a successful rookie campaign in 2014-15, posting 50 points, before taking a major step backward last season with 28 points and an eight game stint in the AHL. Capuano said Strome will get a shot in the middle and that he’ll be looking “for big things from Ryan”. Strome is currently a restricted free agent.
  • Despite the biggest name college free agents being signed already, there remains at least one more player who’s attracting some attention from around the NHL, according to Bob Stauffer from the Oilers Radio Network. Matthew Benning was the Bruins’ sixth round pick in 2012. He was playing in the Alberta Junior Hockey League (AJHL) at the time, then went on to play one year in the USHL and then three seasons with Northeastern University. The 22-year-old right-handed defenseman posted 56 points in 110 games with Northeaster. Stauffer believes the Oilers, Kings, and Canucks all make sense as destinations for Benning: all three teams are looking to add right-handed defensemen, he’s an Edmonton-native who was drafted by current Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli, and his uncle is Canucks’ GM Jim Benning.

Snapshots: Roy, Vesey, Oilers

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When Patrick Roy suddenly resigned as head coach of the Colorado Avalanche last week the hockey world, along with GM Joe Sakic, was stunned to say the least. While Sakic said all the right things, and refused to throw his former teammate under the bus, Terry Frei from the Denver Post writes that it was how their relationship had developed that caused Roy to exit so abruptly.

In the piece, Frei writes that though Roy had a big impact on personnel and development decisions in his first three years, as someone holding a vice-president of hockey operations should, he’d been slowly edged out as Sakic gained more confidence and experience on the job.  To quote Frei: “Did he quit on the Avs? Sure, he did. As coach. Because he thought he had been fired as a VP.”

The Avalanche are still looking for someone to fill the head coaching role, and as Frei reports, Sakic has indicated that none of the current assistant coaches are being considered. We profiled five candidates here who may find their phones ringing at some point, though many are already under contract with another team, if in a lesser role.

  • The Jimmy Vesey sweepstakes continued today, with the final team meetings taking place.  Multiple reports have current players attending the meetings in order to sway his decision, with John Tavares being one of the biggest names confirmed (via James Mirtle). Though the Islanders may still be seen as outsiders, a promised role next to Tavares is definitely something any player would have to consider, and with P.A. Parenteau currently penciled in, it wouldn’t take much to offer it.  Other teams are obviously offering similar things, with Jonathan Toews (link) and Auston Matthews (link) both in Boston to meet the Harvard grad.
  • In his latest column, David Staples of the Edmonton Journal posits that the Oilers will never be successful while they keep trotting out a few weak-links, despite the obvious top-end talent on the roster. In analyzing the roster, Staples references Chris Anderson and David Salley’s book “The Numbers Game: Why Everything You Know About Soccer Is Wrong“, and applies their “O-ring player” idea to some recent Oilers like Anton Lander, Mark Fayne and Mark Letestu.  While a team can’t have NHL stars in every roster spot,  it’s these weak-links that are holding the team back from ever capitalizing on their young stars’ success.

Off-Season To Date: Pacific Division

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The NHL has entered its seasonal lull where teams are done signing free agents and will wait until training camp to make major roster moves. We have already documented the off-season moves of the Atlantic Division, Metropolitan Division, and Central Division teams. Now we take a quick look at the Pacific Division.

Anaheim Ducks

Key Additions: Jared Boll, Antoine Vermette, Jonathan Bernier, Mason Raymond
Key Departures: Jamie McGinn, David Perron, Brandon Pirri, Frederik Andersen, Mike Santorelli, Chris Stewart, Anton Khudobin
Unsigned RFAs: Rickard Rakell, Hampus Lindholm
Cap Space: $6,657,500
Projected Roster Size: 21
Notes: The Ducks traded Frederik Andersen away and are going with John Gibson as their number one starter. They have yet to sign Lindholm but have ample cap space to do so. The team experienced some decent turnover from last season, including firing Coach Bruce Boudreau and hiring former Ducks and Leafs coach Randy Carlyle.

Arizona Coyotes

Key Additions: Jamie McGinn, Ryan White, Alex Goligoski, Luke Schenn, Anthony DeAngelo
Key Departures: Antoine Vermette, Alex Tanguay, Boyd Gordon, Sergei Plotnikov, Anders Lindback, Joe Vitale
Unsigned RFAs: Tobias Rieder
Cap Space: $8,847,875
Projected Roster Size: 22
Notes: The Coyotes picked up a trio of forwards to surround their young prospects, and signed Goligoski to beef up their defense. Arizona also took on Pavel Datysuk’s contract to move up in the first round of the NHL Draft.  All that remains is to sign RFA Tobias Rieder, but recent reports says that both camps are far apart. New GM John Chayka is an analytics proponent, so his moves will garner extra scrutiny as the season progresses. Finally, at time of writing Vrbata is close to signing a one-year deal with Arizona, but nothing has been finalized yet.

Calgary Flames

Key Additions: Troy Brouwer, Alex Chiasson, Linden Vey, Brian Elliott, Chad Johnson
Key Departures: Karri Ramo, Joni Ortio, Jonas Hiller, Niklas Backstrom, Kevin Poulin, Joe Colborne, Josh Jooris, Mason Raymond
Unsigned RFAs: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan
Cap Space: $14,969,600
Projected Roster Size: 20
Notes: The Flames’ offseason is noteworthy for two reasons. One, they completely switched out their goaltending, bringing in St. Louis starter Brian Elliot and Buffalo semi-starter Chad Johnson, and letting Ramo, Ortio, Hiller, and Backstrom walk. Elliot represents a significant upgrade over last year’s goaltending-by-committee. The second noteworthy event—or non-event—is that Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan are still unsigned. The top two Flames scorers last year are playing on Team North America in the World Cup of Hockey, and impressive performances could raise the RFAs’ asking prices.

Edmonton Oilers

Key Additions: Milan Lucic, Adam Larsson, Jonas Gustavsson
Key Departures: Taylor Hall, Rob Klinkhammer, Adam Cracknell, Lauri Korpikoski
Unsigned RFAs: None
Cap Space: $9,238,833
Projected Roster Size: 23
Notes: The Oilers made two big splashes this offseason. First, they traded away Taylor Hall to New Jersey for defenseman Adam Larsson. Hall was one of the Oilers’ best players since he was drafted, but the Oilers desperately needed a top-notch defenseman. Whether Larsson is or becomes that defenseman, however, is up in the air. They then signed top free agent Milan Lucic to a seven-year deal worth $6MM a year. Lucic will add both grit and offense to a team mired in a perpetual rebuild.

Los Angeles Kings

Key Additions: Teddy Purcell, Tom Gilbert, Jeff Zatkoff, Jack Campbell
Key Departures: Milan Lucic, Kris Versteeg, Luke Schenn, Jhonas Enroth
Unsigned RFAs: None
Cap Space: $1,154,773
Projected Roster Size: 25
Notes: The Kings stayed relatively pat this offseason, swapping backup goaltenders and letting Milan Lucic walk. The team was constrained by their cap, which at just over $1M gave them little wiggle room. The team is banking on their core to step up and improve over last season’s first-round exit.

San Jose Sharks

Key Additions: Mikkel Boedker, David Schlemko
Key Departures: Nick Spaling, Dainius Zubrus, Roman Polak, James Reimer
Unsigned RFAs: None
Cap Space: $995,832
Projected Roster Size: 22
Notes: After the Sharks finally made the Stanley Cup Finals, their offseason was uneventful. They took a flyer on Boedker, and will most likely find a backup goalie within the organization. The Sharks are tight against the cap this season, but face an onslaught of UFAs and the end of the year. Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, and Brett Burns are all UFAs next summer, and the Sharks need to evaluate who they want to keep.

Vancouver Canucks

Key Additions: Loui Eriksson, Erik Gudbranson
Key Departures: Radim Vrbata, Linden Vey, Chris Higgins, Brandon Prust, Dan Hamhuis, Matt Bartkowski, Yannick Weber
Unsigned RFAs: None
Cap Space: $2,771,250
Projected Roster Size: 24
Notes: The Canucks had an odd offseason, signing Eriksson and trading for Gudbranson. More trades were expected—but of a rebuilding variety. The Canucks have one more year of Ryan Miller and two more years of the Sedins, so its possible that they want to try to rebuild on the fly while they still have elite talent. Their defense took a hit by losing Hamhuis, and while Gudbranson was a highly touted prospect, he hasn’t evolved into the player scouts predicted.

Retained Salary in 2016-17: Pacific Division

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As a new season fast approaches, it’s always nice to look back and reminisce on years and players gone by. Unfortunately for most NHL teams, those feelings of nostalgia are usually cut short by the realization that some of those past players are still on the team’s payroll. Retained salary is a fact of life in the National Hockey League, as buyouts have become commonplace and retaining a portion of an outgoing player’s cap hit is often a deal-breaker in many trades. Retained salary can last long past the playing days of a former player (see Mike Richards) or can simply be for just one year. One way or another nearly every NHL team has at least one guy who’s still being paid without having to perform. Below is a list of all the retained salary in the Pacific Division in 2016-17:

Anaheim Ducks

  • Patrick Maroon ($500K cap hit in 2016-17 and 2017-18): Maroon was surprisingly dealt out of Anaheim last season to the Edmonton Oilers in exchange for defensive prospect Martin Gernat and a fourth-round pick in the NHL Draft this past June (Jack Kopacka). The Ducks held on to 25% of Maroon’s three-year, $6MM contract that he had signed with the team prior to last season.
  • Mark Fistric ($217K cap hit in 2016-17, $450K in 2017-18 and 2018-19): Fistric was bought out by Anaheim following an injury-plagued 2014-15 campaign, the first year of a new extension. He had two years and over $2.5MM left on his contract at the time. Fistric has not signed with another NHL team since leaving the Ducks.

Arizona Coyotes

  • Mike Ribeiro ($1.94MM cap hit from 2016-17 to 2019-20): Ribeiro will be cashing in on NHL contracts for many years to come, as a buyout in Phoenix has not stopped him from continuing to play and getting good money to do so. The (then) Phoenix Coyotes signed Ribeiro to a four-year, $22MM contract in the summer of 2013, but after a 47-point season in 2013-14, the team decided to cut ties with him. The decision cost the Coyotes a capable player and has and will continue to cost them in dollars. Ribeiro’s buyout was for six years and nearly $12MM dollars, and Arizona is still facing down four more years. Meanwhile, Ribeiro signed a one-year, $1MM deal with the Nashville Predators in 2014-15 and put up 62 points. He was rewarded last summer with a two year, $7MM deal, which means between his active contract and his bought out contract, Ribeiro will actually make close to $5.5MM in 2016-17, what he would have made in Arizona.
  • Antoine Vermette ($1.25MM cap hit in 2016-17 and 2017-18): A more recent development, Vermette was bought out by the Coyotes during their second buyout window last week. Vermette had only one season left with a cap hit of $3.75MM, after returning to the desert on a two-year deal after Arizona traded him to the Chicago Blackhawks before their 2015 Stanley Cup run. Vermette’s numbers did not tail off last season; in fact he has been very consistent over the course of his entire 11-year career. The buyout was viewed by many as Arizona simply deciding to pay to open up depth next season for their young players and prospects. Vermette remains unsigned as of now.

Calgary Flames

  • Mason Raymond ($1.05MM cap hit in 2016-17 and 2017-18): After a one-year, $1MM trial run with the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2013-14 ended in 45 points, the Flames decided to take a chance on Raymond, giving him a three-year, $9.45MM deal. After under-performing in year one, Raymond was only able to play in 29 games last season, contributing a mere five points. Calgary was swift to buy out the remaining year of his contract, which would have paid him $3.15MM in 2016-17. The $1.05MM cap hit for the Flames this year and next year is bearable for a team with cap space and a plethora of young talent, and Raymond has found a new home with division rival Anaheim and will make $675K on top of his buyout payment. It was a retained salary move that worked out for both sides.

Edmonton Oilers

  • Lauri Korpikoski ($500K cap hit in 2016-17, $1MM in 2017-18): Another buyout victim this summer, Korpikoski simply did not perform to the level expected of him by the Oilers after they traded Boyd Gordon to the Coyotes to get him. Stemming from a strong career to that point in Arizona, the Coyotes gave the two-way specialist a four-year, $10MM extension in the summer of 2013. However, after back-to-back years of steep decline in his scoring numbers, Arizona felt comfortable shipping Korpikoski off to the division rival Oilers. New GM Peter Chiarelli hoped that, at the very least, Korpikoski would bring some defensive stability to a young and offensive-minded forward core. When that didn’t happen, Edmonton decided he didn’t need to stick around for the final year of his contract at a cost of $2.5MM.

Los Angeles Kings

  • Mike Richards ($1.32MM cap hit from 2016-17 to 2019-20 AND $10.5MM cap hit over time until 2030-31): One of the most interesting cases of retained salary, Richards counts against the Kings’ cap for two reasons, neither of which is a buyout or a trade. Richards signed a (now illegal) 12-year, $69MM contract with the Philadelphia Flyers during the 2007 season, and prior to the last NHL Collective Bargaining Agreement. The league recognized that deals like Richards’, which were excessively long and included wide margins of salary over the course of the contract, were meant to circumvent the salary cap. By front-loading a contract with high salary seasons, and then adding years at the end of low salary, a team could effectively keep a player’s cap hit low without exposing themselves to much risk should the player retire or need to be bought out later on in his post-prime career. Richards’ cap hit on this contract was only $5.75MM, but there were six seasons where his actual salary was greater, including a 2012-13 salary of $8.4MM. So, when Richards got in legal trouble in 2015, the Kings (who acquired Richards from the Flyers in a blockbuster deal in June 2011) saw an opportunity to terminate Richards’ contract, which had become a major burden to the team for a player that was performing so poorly that he had been demoted to the AHL. Because Richards’ contract was cut  short and had been constructed in an illegal way, the Kings faced “recapture penalties”, which offset the benefits of previous cap benefits from long, front-loaded contracts. Thus, the Kings face a cap hit of $1.32MM every year until what would have been the natural end of Richards’ contract in 2020. On top of that, the termination of the contract was fought by the NHL Players Association, and the grievance led to a settlement between the Kings and Richards which pays him $10.5MM of the $22MM that was left on his contract. The payments were to be made over the course of 16 years, with a maximum payment of $900K per year and minimum of $400K. All of these payments additionally count against the Kings’ cap. In the world of retained salary, Mike Richards is quite the story, and Los Angeles will be telling it for another decade and a half.

San Jose Sharks

  • Adam Burish ($617K cap hit in 2016-17): Never much more than an energy line player, the Sharks gave Burish a four-year, $7.4MM contract when free agency opened on July 1st, 2012. Burish was coming off of a career-high 19 points to go with a strong two-way presence and elite toughness. However, he would only score six points in the next three seasons combined for San Jose, as injury struggles and mostly poor play derailed his career. The Sharks bought out the final year of his contract to avoid a $1.85MM cap hit for an AHL-caliber player and will finish paying off the buyout this season.

Vancouver Canucks

  • Roberto Luongo ($800K cap hit from 2016-17 to 2020-21): Like Richards, Luongo too signed a massive deal before the league banned them. In 2010, the Canucks gave their ace goalie a 12-year, $64MM extension, despite the fact he was 31-years-old at the time. The deal paid Luongo $10MM in salary during the first year, followed by seven years of $6.7MM salaries, and then a steep drop off to $3.4MM, $1.6MM, and two final years at $1MM. Perhaps afraid of facing the full blow of potential recapture penalties (the rule for which is often nicknamed the “Luongo Rule”) for a contract that blatantly circumvents the salary cap with its 5.3MM cap hit, the Canucks traded the remaining eight years of Luongo’s contract to the Florida Panters before the Trade Deadline in 2014 in effort to share some of the risk should Luongo retire before the age of 43. However, to make the risky aquistion worth it, the Panthers had Vancouver hold on to $6.4MM of the contract, for an annual cap hit of $800K.
  • Chris Higgins ($833K cap hit in 2016-17 and 2017-18): Higgins is another recent buyout, getting cut by the Canucks this off-season with one year remaining on a four-year, $10MM extension he signed in 2013. Higgins played in only 33 games last season, recording just four points. He remains unsigned.

Snapshots: Saunders, Schedule, Spaling

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The hockey world mourns today as it was reported earlier that broadcasting titan John Saunders passed away at the age of 61. Saunders had worked for ESPN for nearly 30 years, and was one the biggest influences on hockey broadcasting in the United States. An all-star defenseman growing up in Montreal, Saunders went on to play at Western Michigan University from 1974-76. Saunders was a founding board member of the Jimmy V Foundation, a charity that has raised over $90MM for cancer research.

Many fans in the United States and across the world would not have understood, or appreciated hockey without John Saunders, and here at PHR we would like to extend our deepest condolences to his family.

  • The NHL released its preseason schedule today, and among the notable games are two that will be held at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, the home of the upcoming expansion franchise. The Los Angeles Kings will play back-to-back nights against the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche on October 7-8th to give the fans there a taste of what is to come. Also opening its doors for the first time will be the Edmonton Oilers’ new home, as the team will play the Calgary Flames at Rogers Place on September 26th.
  • Nick Spaling’s deal with Geneve-Servette was announced today, making him the latest in the line of players heading to Switzerland.  The deal is different than any given in the NHL, reports Stephen Whyno as the two sides have agreed to a one-year pact with an option for 2017-18, much like an MLB deal.  This adds a new wrinkle to players looking for contracts outside the NHL, as European leagues are getting more creative in their contract structure. Spaling will be reunited with former line-mate and veteran NHLer Mike Santorelli, who signed a deal last month with the club.

Snapshots: Lucic, Possible Retirees, Gretzky

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Milan Lucic may have only been a member of the Los Angeles Kings for one season, but at least one teammate is sad to see him go. Right-winger Tyler Toffoli lamented the loss of “a great player, a great guy to have in the room”. Toffoli scored a career-best 58 points last season on a line with Lucic and center Jeff Carter, who posted 62 points to tie his third best career output, and best since 2011.

Lucic, of course, signed a seven-year contract worth $42MM with the Edmonton Oilers on July 1, citing a team on the rise and some rookie named Connor McDavid as his main reasons for heading north. OilersNation’s Jonathan Willis broke down how Oilers fans can expect Lucic to age over the course of his contract, and ultimately concluded Lucic will be very effective in his first three seasons, has a two-thirds chance at being effective in the next two seasons, and has a 50-70 per cent chance at posting below 30 points in his final two seasons. However, Lucic told Steve Ewen of The Province that he plans “on playing them out to the best of my ability and, hopefully, I can add another year or two once this contract is done”.

Here are some other news and notes from around the NHL:

  • Speaking of players who could retire, Jared Clinton of The Hockey News explored a few big names who could be entering their final season in the NHL. We could be seeing the last of several former superstars, including Jarome Iginla, Shane Doan, Andrei Markov, and Mark Streit. Iginla has seen his point totals fall by 13 over the last three seasons. Doan has an understanding with GM John Chayka which allows him to take his time on deciding about returning or retiring, and its clear he has no interest in chasing Stanley as a rental. The KHL is a possibility for Markov, who will no longer have the speedy P.K. Subban to cover for his aging speed. Similarly, Streit has previously played in his native Switzerland, and could return next summer. Clinton also mentions the legendary Jaromir Jagr, but seeing as Jagr insists on playing until he’s 60, it’s hard to think he’ll willingly retire unless his production drops off or he suffers a serious injury.
  • Finally, today marks 28 years since “The Trade”. On August 9, 1988, the Edmonton Oilers traded Wayne Gretzky, Mike Krushelnyski, and Marty McSorley to Los Angeles for Jimmy Carson, Martin Gelinas, three first round picks over six years, and most notable (or infamously) $15 million cash. Edmonton fans reacted as expected, burning the team’s owner in effigy and threatening to cancel season tickets; a Member of Parliament even suggested the federal government block the trade. The blockbuster popularized and legitimized hockey in non-traditional markets and lead to a popular comment around the trade deadline “well, if Wayne Gretzky can be traded…”

Oilers Notes: Lucic, Larsson, Talbot, McDavid, Lagesson

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The Edmonton Oilers are next up on Pro Hockey Talk’s daily team series and Jason Brough identifies summer signing Milan Lucic as the Oiler under pressure for 2016-17. Considering the large contract given to Lucic and the expectation he will assume the first-line left wing spot vacated following the trade of former #1 overall pick Taylor Hall, there is certainly plenty of pressure on the menacing forward.

One could argue that Adam Larsson, the defenseman the Oilers dealt Hall for and who is expected to be a viable top pair blue liner for a team desperate to improve on the back end, is under even more pressure than Lucic. Lucic is already a finished product for all intents and purposes, and with four 20-goal seasons on his resume already, Lucic needs only perform at the level he has been over the last several seasons.

On the other hand, Larsson has yet to fulfill his potential completely, and needs to take the next step in his development in order to meet expectations. If the Oilers are going to push for a playoff spot this season they need Larsson to become the player they believe he can be.

More on the Oilers…..

  • In another piece on Pro Hockey Talk, Brough talks about the up-and-down season Cam Talbot had in his first year as a starter in the league. As Brough notes, Talbot got off to a slow start through November but rebounded in December and January posting save percentages of 93.4% and 93.2% respectively during those months. Given the somewhat inconsistent nature of Talbot’s performance and his relative lack of starting experience, Brough feels the goaltending situation is still uncertain in Edmonton. It appears Edmonton will go into the season with journeyman backstop Jonas Gustavsson as Talbot’s backup between the pipes (all team depth charts can be found at Roster Resource). Given that likelihood, Edmonton will need Talbot to play at the level he did in the latter part of last season if they want to compete for a playoff spot.
  • Bruce McCurdy, writing for the Edmonton Journal, discusses the progress of Edmonton defense prospect William Lagesson. Lagesson, the Oilers 4th round pick in 2014, played last season as a freshman for a U-Mass program that struggled to a 8-24-4 mark and was outscored by 62 goals. The Swedish rearguard led the teams defense corps recording a -6 plus-minus rating. Edmonton obviously needs all the good defense prospects they can accumulate and it appears Lagesson is developing into one.
  • Meanwhile, David Staples, also covering the Oilers for the Edmonton Journal, penned a piece on how one publication, hockey prognosticator The Hockey Forecaster, is projecting Connor McDavid to have a Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin-like impact on his team’s offensive output. In their rookie campaigns, Crosby and Ovechkin helped their teams score 53 and 44 more goals respectively than they potted the previous season. The Oilers are predicted to tally a total of 237 goals, which would be an increase of 38 markers over their 2015-16 season total. The Hockey Forecaster also predicts career seasons from Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl and Oscar Klefbom, among others. Staples writes that those projections might be a stretch but recognizes that an elite talent such as McDavid, Crosby and Ovechkin can have that type of impact for a team. Assuming the predictions even come close to fruition then Edmonton might be able to outscore their way to postseason contention.

2015 Free Agent Signings That Didn’t Pan Out

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A few of last year’s free agent signings defied the odds and actually turned into either steals for their team or at least, proved to be a solid value. A lesson taught in physics is that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. The same can possibly be said for free agent signings, evidently, as for every signing that worked out there was one that didn’t. Here’s a quick rundown on a few of 2015’s free agent busts.

  • Andrej Sekera – Edmonton (six years, $5.5MM AAV) – Sekera was pursued and ultimately signed by the Oilers, a team with plenty of offensive firepower but one in desperate need of defensive help. The hope was Sekera could fill a role on the club’s top pair while providing experience and stability to a defense corps short on both. While Sekera wasn’t terrible – he did net 30 points for the Oilers – he had no positive effect on the team’s possession numbers and while they did cut their GAA from 3.45 in 2014-15 to 3.0 this past season, Edmonton still ranked just 27th in goals allowed overall. It might be unfair to pin the blame on Sekera alone but his cap hit is tied for 24th highest among defensemen, suggesting he is compensated at the level of a #1 blue liner. The Oilers are paying for a top-pair defender but Sekera performed more at the level of a #4.
  • Zbynek Michalek – Arizona (two years, $3.2MM AAV) – Michalek had several good seasons over two stints in the desert and after hitting free agency following a 2015 deadline deal from the Coyotes to St. Louis, Arizona elected to bring the veteran back for another tour of duty. Like Sekera, Michalek was expected to add experience and leadership to a blue line that was populated primarily by younger players. Unlike Sekera, however, Michalek wasn’t expected to be a top pair defender. Unfortunately, Michalek had a down year, one not good enough even for a bottom pair defender. He placed among the absolute worst defensemen in the NHL in CF% (Corsi For %). His 43.9% CF% was 3.7% lower than the team average, indicating he was a significant drag on his teammates while he was on the ice. Even if a $3.2MM AAV isn’t a cap killer, it isn’t good business for a budget team like the Coyotes to pay that price for poor production.
  • Antoine Vermette – Arizona (two years, $3.75MM AAV) – Not singling the Coyotes out but it’s signings like this one and the Michalek contract that likely played a role in Arizona’s offseason organizational changes. At first, re-signing Vermette after a brief stint with Chicago where the veteran pivot won the Stanley Cup, made a lot of sense. He’d had a couple of productive seasons in the desert prior to the trade and on a two-year deal, the consistent 40-point production seemed well worth the investment. However, Vermette’s play nosedived last season resulting in the team buying out the final year of his contract. On the surface, Vermette’s 38 points in 76 games falls in line with his past level of production. However, his even strength scoring rate dropped to a career low 1.04 Pts/60; a figure that ranked 315th in the NHL among forwards. Vermette also struggled in the puck possession department finishing with a CF% of just 46.3%. Vermette still can be a useful NHL player but it made sense for the Coyotes to move on from that expensive contract.
  • Alexander Semin – Montreal (one year, $1.1MM) – Semin has always been a divisive figure between the traditional hockey folks and the analytically minded. Traditionalists saw Semin as a supremely talented but unmotivated player who rarely played to his potential while stat guys based his value on the terrific possession and scoring rates. Regardless, after Carolina bought him out of that ill-advised, five-year, $35MM deal last summer, nearly everyone agreed Montreal’s signing of Semin to a cheap, one-year contract was a smart move. At the least the Canadiens would get middling production for low cost. At best Semin would play up to his 40-goal ability and the Canadiens would have the steal of the summer. Semin would only make it two months into the season, scoring one goal and four points in 15 games, before Montreal decided they’d seen enough. On December 10th, both sides agreed to mutually terminate the agreement and Semin returned to Russia to finish out the year. Granted, the actual financial investment was limited, but the Canadiens desperately needed a quality scorer on the wing and counted on Semin to provide that. In hindsight, Montreal would have been better off looking elsewhere for offense.

Snapshots: KHL Brawl, Jets, Weber

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The hockey world saw one of the most egregious on-ice attacks today, when noted goon Damir Ryspayev of Barys Astana attacked almost the entire Kunlun Red Star squad. After sucker-punching Tomas Marcinko from behind and knocking the Red Star forward out, Ryspayev proceeded to attack any red jersey in sight, even going after players on the bench. The game was suspended after just three minutes, and Marcinko was taken to the hospital for further evaluation.

Ryspayev is a 21-year old who has three points in his professional hockey career (stretching back to 2011-12). During that time, he’s racked up more than 500 PIM, and was suspended just a few months ago for five games following a similar incident. According to Aivis Kalnins, he has been suspended for the remainder of the pre-season, and the KHL will hold a disciplinary hearing to determine if anything further will be handed down.

  • The Winnipeg Jets have hired Todd Woodcroft as an assistant coach today, joining Paul Maurice’s staff for the 2016-17 season. A former video coach of both the Washington Capitals and Team Canada, Woodcroft has spent the past three seasons with the Calgary Flames as their scouting director. Woodcroft will likely not be behind the bench, as Ken Wiebe of the Winnipeg Sun reports he’ll be the eye-in-the-sky during games. His brother, Jay, is an assistant coach with the Edmonton Oilers, meaning that the sibling rivalry will live on even after his cross-prairie move to the Jets.
  • Jason Brough of NBC Sports writes about the need to keep Sergei Bobrovsky healthy for this season, stating that it’s been a focus of GM Jarmo Kekalainen this summer. The Blue Jackets have hired on Nelson Ayotte to “bridge the gap between the medical staff and the staff of strength and conditioning coach Kevin Collins“.  One of Ayotte’s biggest tasks will be keeping the Jackets’ prized goaltender on the ice, as Bobrovsky is owed $21.2MM over the next three years.
  • While the Montreal Canadiens have been derided for their recent move of P.K. Subban for Shea Weber, one current player is excited about his new teammate. In a recent article in the Montreal Gazette by Steve Ewen, Brendan Gallagher compares the media’s opinion with those of other NHL players: “You get two different perspectives. You get the perspective of people who don’t have to play against Shea Weber and what they understand, and you get the perspective of players from the Western Conference who tell you how happy they are to see Shea Weber leave the conference.” It’s true, those criticizing the Canadiens have no idea what it’s like to go into the corner against Weber, or try to block one of his booming slapshots, but he’ll have to prove that his declining possession numbers are an aberration and not a trend, as he’s under contract for a very long time in Montreal.

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