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Eastern Notes: McDonagh, Nash, Bruins, Stone

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Trade rumors seem to be buzzing around the Tampa Bay Lightning as a team very likely to make a big deal at the trade deadline this year. Already with the best record in the NHL with a 36-13-3 record, the Lightning might be looking to improve both its forward depth as well as its defense for a run at the Stanley Cup this year.

While he is quick to acknowledge that teams cross-scouting each other doesn’t mean a trade is forthcoming, New York Post’s Larry Brooks writes that he wouldn’t be surprised if both teams are scouting each other for a potential deadline deal surrounding New York Rangers defenseman Ryan McDonagh. The fact that Rangers assistant general manager Chris Drury was spotted at a Syracuse Crunch game (Tampa’s AHL affiliate) on Friday, suggests they might be looking at what they can get from the Lightning in such a move. Tampa Bay’s assistant GM Pat Verbeek has also been spotted at Ranger games recently. McDonagh has often been mentioned in trade rumors as he has one year remaining on his contract after this year, making him a more advantageous acquisition than a pure rental player.

The Lightning might be looking to bolster their defense. The team struggled when they lost Victor Hedman for several weeks to injury. Considering that Tampa Bay likes former Ranger players such as Ryan Callahan and Dan Girardi, perhaps a trade is a possibility. Brooks added that he believes the Rangers would also be willing to retain half of his $4.7MM salary in order to get a quality return.

  • In the same article, Brooks adds he believes the New York Rangers also would be willing to retain half of veteran forward Rick Nash’s contract as well. Nash, who is in the final year of his deal with an AAV of $7.8MM, is believed to have multiple suitors if the price is right, including the Nashville Predators, Columbus Blue Jackets, Dallas Stars, St. Louis Blues, San Jose Sharks and possibly the Pittsburgh Penguins.
  • The Boston Globe’s Fluto Shinzawa writes that the Boston Bruins would also have quite a bit of interest in acquiring McDonagh for their defense. The scribe writes that the veteran’s leadership, character and performance could be quite valuable to a young Bruins’ team. However, would the Bruins be willing to relinquish a first-rounder, a young NHL player and a prospect for him?
  • The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch reports that the Ottawa Senators might be getting back forward Mark Stone from injury soon, after having already missed six games due to a knee injury. Although not expected to play today against Montreal, Garrioch writes that Stone has resumed skating and is a possibility for Tuesday’s game against the New Jersey Devils. “I have to find out if it swelled up again,” Senators head coach Guy Boucher said Saturday. “There’s no structural problem waiting to heal. It’s the swelling. Once the swelling is gone, then he’s ready to play. I know the swelling was down big time. Mechanically he was able to move his leg a lot better, but certainly not enough to play (this weekend), and he hasn’t practised yet. He has to do real practices with the team, and then he’s ready to play. I’d love to get him back, but we’ve lived with this all year.”

Stars Recall Landon Bow

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  • As expected, the Stars have recalled a goaltender to take Ben Bishop’s spot on the roster, summoning Landon Bow from AHL Texas, per the AHL’s transactions page. The 22-year-old has yet to play at the NHL level but has been a regular in the AHL this season, posting a 2.81 GAA with a .905 SV% in 28 appearances this season.

Predators Pick Up AHL’s McNeill In Trade With Stars

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The Nashville Predators keep finding themselves in the news. After announcing that former captain Mike Fisher was coming out of retirement and would sign in the coming weeks with the team, the Predators have now acquired another center via trade, albeit a minor one, as they have traded minor league defenseman Andrew O’Brien to the Dallas Stars in exchange for center Mark McNeill, according to the Dallas Stars.

Obviously added as a depth forward for the AHL’s Milwaukee Admirals, McNeill was once considered a top prospect of the Chicago Blackhawks after being drafted in the first round of the 2011 draft. Considered a strong possibility to make the proud franchise immediately after he was drafted, he didn’t make the team and found himself languishing in the AHL for years, never getting an opportunity to show what he could do in the NHL. He only played one game with Chicago before the Blackhawks moved him at the trade last year to Dallas in exchange for defenseman Johnny Oduya. He did make one appearance last year in Dallas, but spent most of the last year and all of this year with the Texas Stars. He is considered to have shooting ability, solid speed and good defensive skills, but has always struggled with consistency. He has played in 312 games in his AHL career so far. This year, the 24-year-old has played just 18 for the Texas Stars and has five goals and an assist.

As for O’Brien, the 24-year-old defenseman has also played many years in the AHL, never having been promoted to the NHL. The blueliner has played 188 career AHL games, but in just 21 games this season. He has put up three assists and 27 penalty minutes with the Milwaukee Admirals. He will report to the Texas Stars.

Bishop Won't Play Saturday, Methot And Hanzal Resume Skating

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  • Although he did not suffer a concussion after being hit on the side of the face with the puck on Thursday, Stars goaltender Ben Bishop has been ruled out of Saturday’s contest against Minnesota, notes Mark Stepneski on the Stars’ team website. They are expected to recall a goalie to serve as the backup tomorrow.  Meanwhile, center Martin Hanzal (muscle pull) and defenseman Marc Methot (knee) skated with the team as they continue to work their way back from their respective injuries but head coach Ken Hitchcock does not have a timeframe for when the veterans may get the green light to play.

Final Standings Projections At The Mid-Way Point

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It’s impossible to tell exactly how the remainder of the 2017-18 season will shake out, but with the NHL set to resume it’s unofficial second half of the season tomorrow, there’s no better time to look at the current state of the league. The final standings could look much like they do now or they could differ greatly, depending on whether or not the status quo shifts over the next few months. The trade deadline, rookie wall, and the health rigors of an 82-game season can all change the course of the campaign for many teams, but as of now, this is what the final standings and 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs will look like:

Atlantic Division

  1. Tampa Bay Lightning – 119 points
  2. Boston Bruins – 115 points
  3. Toronto Maple Leafs – 98 points
  4. Detroit Red Wings – 79 points
  5. Montreal Canadiens – 77 points
  6. Florida Panthers – 77 points
  7. Ottawa Senators – 68 points
  8. Buffalo Sabres – 62 points

Metropolitan Division

  1. Washington Capitals – 105 points
  2. New Jersey Devils – 96 points
  3. Columbus Blue Jackets – 95 points
  4. Philadelphia Flyers – 94 points
  5. Pittsburgh Penguins – 92 points
  6. New York Islanders – 90 points
  7. New York Rangers – 90 points
  8. Carolina Hurricanes – 87 points

Eastern Conference First Round Playoff Match-ups:

#1A Tampa Bay vs. #2W Pittsburgh
#1M Washington vs. #1W Philadelphia
#2A Boston vs. #3A Toronto
#2M New Jersey vs. #3M Columbus

Central Division

  1. Nashville Predators – 113 points
  2. Winnipeg Jets – 108 points
  3. St. Louis Blues – 101 points
  4. Dallas Stars – 98 points
  5. Colorado Avalanche – 97 points
  6. Minnesota Wild – 95 points
  7. Chicago Blackhawks – 89 points

Pacific Division

  1. Vegas Golden Knights – 116 points
  2. San Jose Sharks – 101 points
  3. Calgary Flames – 97 points
  4. Los Angeles Kings – 95 points
  5. Anaheim Ducks – 93 points
  6. Edmonton Oilers – 79 points
  7. Vancouver Canucks – 74 points
  8. Arizona Coyotes – 54 points

Western Conference First Round Playoff Match-ups:

#1P Vegas vs. #2W Colorado
#1C Nashville vs. #1W Dallas
#2C Winnipeg vs. #3C St. Louis
#2P San Jose vs. #3P Calgary

The biggest takeaway from this current outlook? It won’t take 100 points to be a playoff team this year, but the vast number of mediocre teams opens the door for some last-minute playoff drama. The Islanders, Rangers, Wild, and Kings all project to be just one win outside of a playoff berth. These races could come down to the wire. It should be a fun second half.

Which Teams Would Have Flexibility In Another Expansion Draft?

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Midway-through the 2017-18 NHL season, it is nearly impossible to predict what rosters could look like following the 2019-20 season, more than two years away. Trades, free agency, and much more shape teams often in ways that no one sees coming. With that said, it seems like another Expansion Draft is coming to add the league’s 32nd team, the Seattle __________, and the timeline most are suggesting is a June 2020 draft date. Like it or not, the general managers of the other 31 NHL need to be keeping that in the back of their mind with each move they make over the next two seasons.

However, it could be that some have already made decisions that could impact their roster protection plans more than two years from now. The structure of the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft will the remain the same, allowing for teams to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie or eight skaters regardless of position and one goalie from being selected. The one caveat that threw more than a few teams for a loop last June was that all players with No-Movement Clauses (NMC) in their contracts had to be protected, unless the players voluntarily chose to wave them i.e. Marc-Andre Fleury. So, with that one aspect of the expansion process in mind, it is possible to look ahead at certain long-term contracts to see, assuming those players don’t waive them ahead of time, who could be locked in for protection in 2020 or which teams will have more flexibility without any such players:

Total Flexibility

Arizona Coyotes (0) – The only NMC players on the Coyotes are defensemen Alex Goligoski and Niklas Hjalmarsson. Hjalmarsson will be a free agent in the summer of the projected Expansion Draft and Goligoski’s clause will have shifted to a Modified No-Trade Clause. Arizona will likely have complete flexibility.

Buffalo Sabres (0) – Kyle Okposo’s NMC expires after this season and Jason Pominville’s contract expires after next season. Buffalo won’t have any restrictions on their protection scheme as of now.

Calgary Flames (0) – There is no one on the roster with a NMC and no one that will predictably get one by the end of the 2019-20 season. Kudos to GM Brad Treliving.

Los Angeles Kings (0) – Kings’ captain Anze Kopitar in their only NMC player right now and even his clause will have shifted to No-Trade by 2020. L.A. is free and clear.

Nashville Predators (0) – GM David Poile does not seem to be a fan of NMC’s in his recent long-term deals and in the new NHL expansion era, that’s a good thing.

New Jersey Devils (0) – see Calgary Flames

New York Islanders (0) – The Andrew Ladd and Johnny Boychuk contracts already look bad for the Isles. They would be much worse if their NMC’s didn’t expire soon. With John Tavares and Josh Bailey both candidates for NMC’s should they re-sign in New York and a defense that needs a re-haul, the Islanders could lose some flexibility, but they should be fine.

Toronto Maple Leafs (0) – The Leafs have no NMC players under contract beyond 2019-20 right now. That could easily change with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander in need of extensions, but Toronto should still be in a good spot. After all, those are players that would protected regardless.

Vancouver Canucks (0) – Loui Eriksson’s NMC shifts to a No-Trade Clause following this season and will be an afterthought by 2020. It’s fortunate, as Eriksson’s tenure in Vancouver has not gone according to plan.

Vegas Golden Knights (0) – The Golden Knights didn’t sign or trade for any players with NMC’s and only drafted two – Marc-Andre Fleury and David Clarkson – who already had them and they both expire before the Knights would be set to become the NHL’s second-newest team. With that said, the current Knights’ roster will see a lot of turnover in the next two years and they may struggle to avoid NMC’s completely.

Washington Capitals (0) – GM Brian MacLellan has avoided NMC’s in any of his recent mega-deals. If he can do it again this summer in his attempt to re-sign (or replace) John Carlson, then the Caps will be in good shape for another round of expansion drafting.

Winnipeg Jets (0) – The NMC in Bryan Little’s contract will both kick in and expire between now and June 2020. The Jets should be left with a fully flexible lineup.

Some Flexibility

Boston Bruins (2) – There’s little concern that Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron will still be playing at a high level in two years. Their NMC’s should be a non-factor for Boston. If David Krejci and, especially, David Backes still had their NMC’s too at that time, there would be a real logjam up front. However, both will have shifted to Modified No-Trade Clauses by then, potentially saving the Bruins from making tough decisions about their many talented young forwards.

Carolina Hurricanes (1) – As important a job as he’s had in Carolina, Jordan Staal will never be the star forward that finally puts them over the top. If his NMC causes a problem in 2020, he could easily be traded to a contender to play a complementary role. The Hurricanes need to retain as many promising young forward assets as they can in hopes of one day finding that true superstar.

Colorado Avalanche (1) – There are mixed opinions on Erik Johnson, but he has a leadership role for the Avalanche and will be key in grooming a strong crop of up-and-coming defensive prospects. The Avs won’t lose sleep about having to protect him in expansion, especially if he’s still one of their top-pairing guys in two years.

Columbus Blue Jackets (1) – The Blue Jackets were one of the biggest losers in the most recent Expansion Draft. They might be smart to sell off Nick Foligno if there’s any risk that history repeats itself.

Dallas Stars (3) – Call it optimism about his play in his first season in Dallas, but the NMC for Alexander Radulov doesn’t seem like it will be a major issue even after a couple more years. Of course, Jamie Benn’s NMC will also be a non-factor. Ben Bishop on the other hand may not be the goalie the Stars would prefer to keep in two years. As of now, there’s no immediate competition though.

Detroit Red Wings (1) – Detroit only has one NMC player who will still be under contract in 2020-21 (and another season after that), but it’s Frans Nielsen, who has been a major disappointment for the team since coming over from the New York Islanders. He could throw a wrench in their plans if he continues his downward trend over the next two seasons.

Minnesota Wild (2) – The Ryan Suter and Zach Parise mega-deals will still be making an impact in 2020, but with most of the core locked up throughout that season and no other NMC contract likely on their way, Minnesota should be okay in the Expansion Draft.

Montreal Canadiens (2) – Even if the Canadiens continue to struggle through two more seasons, there will be few Habs fans that blame superstar goalie Carey Price. His NMC won’t be an issue because the team would never dream of leaving him exposed. Jeff Petry on the other hand could be a problem. Luckily (?), it doesn’t look like Montreal will have many defenders worth protecting even in the next couple of seasons.

Ottawa Senators (2) – Some things never change. The NMC’s for Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf were problems for the Senators in this past Expansion Draft and they’ll likely be problems again next time around. If Phaneuf is traded between now and then, that alleviates some concern for Ottawa. Good luck moving the Ryan contract though.

Philadelphia Flyers (1) – Only Claude Giroux has and predictably will have an NMC come June 2020. That’s a pretty safe situation for Philly.

San Jose Sharks (1) – Marc-Edouard Vlasic plays a confident, stay-at-home defensive game that often ages nicely. He looks to be the only NMC in San Jose in 2020, which shouldn’t cause a stir.

St. Louis Blues (1) – Patrik Berglund will be on the wrong side of 30 and still under a NMC when the potential 2020 draft rolls around, but with the rest of their core signed long-term without NMC’s, the Blues should be pretty safe.

Tampa Bay Lightning (2) – Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman may be the two safest NMC contracts in the NHL. Fortunately, Ryan Callahan’s otherwise-problematic NMC expires just prior to projected 2020 Expansion Draft.

Little Flexibility

Anaheim Ducks (3) – Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Kesler will all be 35+ and still be NMC-protected in 2020. That’s a large chunk of your protected forwards to dedicate to players in the twilight of their careers. Some up-and-coming young talent could leave Anaheim again in this next Expansion Draft a la Shea Theodore.

Chicago Blackhawks (4) – The downside to signing all of your core players to long contracts with NMC’s could hit the Blackhawks hard in the next Expansion Draft. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews will be well past 30 and Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith will be in their mid-to-late 30’s during the 2020-21 season, but all four will need to be protected ahead of that season, which could force other promising younger players out of Chicago’s protection scheme. At least they’ll narrowly avoid having an issue in net with Corey Crawford’s contract expiring prior.

Edmonton Oilers (2) – Milan Lucic and Kris Russell. Each two years older than they are now. Those aren’t exactly players that a team wants to be forced to keep. It’s foreseeable that one or both could have a negative impact on the team’s protection plan.

Florida Panthers (3) – The Panthers probably won’t mind having three players locked up come Expansion 2.0. The team knew what they were doing when they signed Keith Yandle long-term. Even in his mid-30’s, Yandle will be a reliable player and a leader for the young Florida defensive core. Sure, they considered asking him to waive his NMC this past June, but they never actually did. Yandle won’t be a major issue in two years unless his play falls off considerably. There should be no concern whatsoever over Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov, whose NMC’s kick in later on in their contracts. The same might not be true about Evgeni Dadonov, whose been somewhat underwhelming so far in Florida, but luckily his contract runs out just prior the probable draft date.

New York Rangers (4) – Although they will have near total control over their forwards, outside of Mika Zibanejad, the Rangers could be in a tough position with their protection schemes in net and on the blue line in 2020. Then-38-year-old Henrik Lundqvist will require protection, as will underachieving defensemen Kevin Shattenkirk and Marc Staal. New York is apparently readying themselves for somewhat of a rebuild, which could mean some of those players are traded beforehand. Otherwise New York could face quite the dilemma.

Pittsburgh Penguins (4) – It seems unlikely, even years from now and in their mid-30’s, that the NMC’s for Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, or Phil Kessel would cause trouble for the Penguins. Injury-prone defenseman Kris Letang could be different though. Being forced to protect him after another two seasons of hard minutes could be difficult to swallow. Pittsburgh also has some work to do filling out the forward corps between now and 2020. GM Jim Rutherford would be well-served to avoid acquiring or handing out any further NMC’s.

Jonathan Quick Placed On Injured Reserve; Jack Campbell Recalled

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Though it is not believed to be a major injury, Jonathan Quick has nevertheless been placed on injured reserve by the Los Angeles Kings retroactive to January 24th. The Kings have recalled Jack Campbell from the AHL to take Quick’s spot for at least one game.

Because Quick pulled out of the All-Star game at the last minute, he’ll be forced to sit for Wednesday’s contest. It’s not clear if he’ll return after that, the team calling it a “nagging injury” that caused him to withdraw from the festivities.

Campbell, 26, is a very interesting story for the Kings. The 11th-overall pick in 2010 by the Dallas Stars, he didn’t progress as planned and eventually found himself toiling in the ECHL. Since a trade to the Kings though, Campbell has put up solid numbers for the Ontario Reign of the AHL and rediscovered the potential that made him a high pick. He is carrying a .920 save percentage this season through 22 games for the Reign and could potentially push for the backup role next season as Darcy Kuemper is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent.

While Quick is clearly the king in Los Angeles, developing Campbell to take some pressure off him as he enters his mid-thirties can only help the team. It doesn’t look like Campbell will get onto the ice right away, but if Quick remains out for any length of time we might get a glimpse of what he can do at the NHL level.

The team has also recalled Jonny Brodzinski, Michael Amadio and Paul LaDue as expected. The Kings take on the Dallas Stars tomorrow night, before heading to Nashville for a game against the Predators.

Eastern Notes: Hedman, Eichel, Simmonds

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Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman, despite missing five games with a lower-body injury, remains one of the top candidates for the Norris Trophy this year, but could find himself quickly falling out of the race if he continues to miss games. Originally slated to miss between three to six weeks, Tampa Bay Times’ Joe Smith tweets that Hedman is already back skating and his return is more likely to be near the three-week mark as opposed to six weeks. He’s been out since Jan. 11th.

Hedman, who is the defensive backbone to the Tampa Bay Lightning, would be a welcome return for a team that despite having the top record in the league, but was struggling recently having lost five of seven games before winning their last three straight. He has six goals and 27 assists in 44 games this year with a plus/minus rating of +24.

Hedman, who had to miss the all-star game due to the injury, will still be at the game, according to Smith. He will be the assistant to the equipment manager for the Atlantic Division team. TSN’s Frank Seravalli tweets that Hedman has experience in that role as his father Olle worked as an equipment manager for MoDo in Sweden for 23 years.

  • Buffalo Sabres Jack Eichel finds himself at the all-star game on a rare high-note as the struggling franchise has won three games in a row, in fact, in quite a dominating fashion. The team topped Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver by a combined score of 11-1. Those three wins comes off a humiliating 7-1 blowout loss to the Dallas Stars on Jan. 20. The Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington writes that Eichel believes that loss is what motivated the team to turn it around. “Obviously you get embarrassed at home and you’ve got to look in the mirror,” Eichel said Saturday at All-Star Media Day in the Tampa Grand Hyatt. “Nobody wants to be a part of that, 7-1 at home. It’s embarrassing. It’s good we were able to come back this week, play a few good hockey games and we want to keep that going.” Eichel has been a key part to the three-game streak with two goals and three assists.
  • Regarding questions about whether the Philadelphia Flyers should trade winger Wayne Simmonds, The Athletic’s Charlie O’Connor writes in a mailbag article that despite the improved play of several players including Sean Couturier, Travis Konecny and Nolan Patrick, the team would be less likely to trade the veteran winger. First off, Simmonds is a power forward that none of the others would be able to replace. And secondly, the improvements of those three players only suggests the Flyers are much closer to competing for a Stanley Cup in the next few years, so extending Simmonds might make more sense. The 29-year-old has 16 goals and 29 points this year and would provide excellent offense for the next few years. His contract, which comes up after the 2018-19 season, would put him at 31 when a new contract would kick in. If the team were to re-sign him, the Flyers would need to be sure they could compete for a Stanley Cup in those first few years of that contract, according to O’Connor.

All-Star Skills Competition Assignments Released

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With the All-Star game one day away, many NHL fans often get more excited for the 2018 GEICO NHL All-Star Skills Competition, which will be tonight. The NHL released the list of who will be participating in each of the six competitions with the winner of each receiving $25K.

Enterprise NHL Fastest Skater – Each skater is timed for one full lap around the rink.
Brayden Point (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Zach Werenski (Columbus Blue Jackets)
Rickard Rakell (Anaheim Ducks)
Noah Hanifin (Carolina Hurricanes)
Josh Bailey (New York Islanders)
Nathan MacKinnon (Colorado Avalanche)
Jack Eichel (Buffalo Sabres)
Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers)

Dunkin Donuts NHL Passing Challenge – Requires three skills over one round, including Target Passing (making four passes to a target that light up randomly), Give-and-Go (must complete four successful passes through a course in the neutral zone) and Mini Nets (must complete four passes over barricades and into mini-nets).
Nikita Kucherov (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Claude Giroux (Philadelphia Flyers)
Brayden Schenn (St. Louis Blues)
Oliver Ekman-Larsson (Arizona Coyotes)
Eric Staal (Minnesota Wild)
Alex Pietrangelo (St. Louis Blues)
Kris Letang (Pittsburgh Penguins)
Drew Doughty (Los Angeles Kings)

GEICO NHL Save Streak – Goalies attempt to win by making the most consecutive saves against an opposing division on a minimum of nine shots.
Henrik Lundqvist (New York Rangers) vs. Central Division
Connor Hellebuyck (Vancouver Canucks) vs. Pacific Division
Pekka Rinne (Nashville Predators) vs. Metropolitan Division
Marc-Andre Fleury (Vegas Golden Knights) vs. Atlantic Division
Andrei Vasilevskiy (Tampa Bay Lightning) vs. Central Division

Gatorade NHL Puck Control Relay – A timed event that involves three skills, including Stickhandling (where a skater must control a puck through a series of eight pucks in a straight line), Cone Control (where a skater controls a puck through a series of eight cones in a zig-zag formation) and Gates (where a skater must shoot or choose to guide the puck through a lighted rung of a gate).
Johnny Gaudreau (Calgary Flames)
Aleksander Barkov (Florida Panthers)
Erik Karlsson (Ottawa Senators)
John Tavares (New York Islanders)
Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers)
Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs)
Tyler Seguin (Dallas Stars)
Patrick Kane (Chicago Blackhawks)

PPG NHL Hardest Shot – Over two rounds, each player will attempt two shots measured in miles per hour with the highest speed recorded.
John Klingberg (Dallas Stars)
Alex Ovechkin (Washington Capitals)
P.K. Subban (Nashville Predators)
Brent Burns (San Jose Sharks)
Steven Stamkos (Tampa Bay Lightning)

Honda NHL Shooting Accuracy – A timed event in which a skater is positioned 25 feet behind the goal line and must shoot at five LED targets in the goal. A target will light up and the players has three seconds to hit it.
Brian Boyle (New Jersey Devils)
Blake Wheeler (Winnipeg Jets)
James Neal (Vegas Golden Knights)
Brock Boeser (Vancouver Canucks)
Brad Marchand (Boston Bruins)
Anze Kopitar (Los Angeles Kings)
Sidney Crosby (Pittsburgh Penguins)
Steven Stamkos (Tampa Bay Lightning)

NHL Trade Deadline Trends

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With two (albeit minor) trades today, it seems as if the annual pre-NHL Trade Deadline flurry of activity is underway. NHL analytics guru Rob Vollman was ready for it yesterday, releasing some new, interesting statistics related to trade deadline trends. With the last day to make deals this season coming up on Monday, February 26th, these correlations may indicate what we can expect in the coming weeks.

Vollman’s first chart shows the distribution of deals made in the month leading up to the trade deadline. On average, there have been close to 41 trades in the month leading up to the deadline since 2005. There tends to be nearly a trade per day beginning 30 days prior to the deadline and going throughout the month, with the numbers increasing exponentially in the final three days. In 2016-17, there were five trades made in the month of January, which slowed down the early February pace somewhat. However, deals came with a more torrid pace beginning in the middle of the month, leading to a total of 41 trades made in the month – on par with the trend over the last decade plus. On average, one can expect 12 trades over the next month leading up to 29 swaps over the final two days prior and deadline day combined. On the 26th, it would be reasonable to see more than 20 trades made, as that has been the trend of late.

So who will be making those deals? Vollman’s second chart shows the frequency that each NHL team has made trades since 2005. The Anaheim Ducks stand out as having made far more deals in that time than any other team in the league, including quite a few deals prior to deadline day. Could the Ducks make a deal this deadline season? Of course, although GM Bob Murray and company may need some more clarity on the Western Conference playoff picture before deciding to be buyers or sellers. The last-place Arizona Coyotes, also common deal-makers, aren’t in that position, but with no impending free agent rentals outside of Brad Richardson, Luke Schenn, and maybe Antti Raanta, there may not be many trade options for GM John Chayka unless he makes some bigger splashes. Eastern Conference contenders Tampa Bay, Toronto, and Washington have all been known to make a few trades, so don’t expect anything different this season. On the other hand, the Red Wings, Stars, and Predators have a history of being hesitant to make moves. If Dallas does make a deal, expect it to come early, as they have far more trades made earlier in February than at the deadline. Conversely, the Avalanche often wait until the last minute, which should be no different in 2017-18 with Colorado being a team that could benefit from a clear look at the Western race.

The trading mania is about to begin, so even if John Ramage, Jeff Zatkoff, or even Anthony Duclair don’t interest you, don’t fret, more moves are on their way.

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