The Worst Case Scenario In Ottawa
While the result is not yet final, the Ottawa Senators are in the midst tonight of what will likely end as a big loss to the Buffalo Sabres, the only team in the Eastern Conference with a worse record (for now). The team is in free fall, losing four straight games and eleven of their past twelve, not including tonight’s result. At 9-12-7, the Senators hold the third worst record in the NHL and rumors are swirling that no one on the roster is safe.
Back on November 5th, things seemed to be trending upward for Ottawa as GM Pierre Dorion was finally able to swing a trade to bring in coveted center Matt Duchene. In the process, the Senators gave up another legitimate top six center in Kyle Turris, goalie Andrew Hammond, 2016 first-rounder Shane Bowers, a 2019 third-round pick and a conditional 2018 first-round pick. Duchene has just four points and a -11 rating in 14 games with Ottawa so far and it’s already safe to say that the trade hasn’t worked out as planned.
So what’s next? With the Senators struggling, the conditional first-round pick sent to the Avalanche becomes very interesting. The 2018 pick is “top-ten protected”, meaning – as is likely – if Ottawa finished in the bottom third of the league, they retain their first round pick. Colorado would then get the Senators’ 2019 first-rounder. However, there is significant risk associated with that scenario. While the 2017-18 Sens have been underwhelming, there is enough talent on the roster to avoid falling apart entirely. The 2018-19 Senators though are another story. Ottawa just recently requested no-trade lists from ten key players and a fire sale could begin this season. The result could be an even worse squad next season and an even better pick heading to Colorado, perhaps even a top pick like center Jack Hughes or defenseman Bowen Byram.
So what is the worst case scenario in Ottawa? The team continues to struggle this year and is even worse next season, missing out on a potential franchise-altering prospect. After two years of failure, the team loses, via trade or free agency, Duchene, Erik Karlsson, Derick Brassard, and more. It may seem like a stretch, but it is in fact very possible. These are dark days in Ottawa, but the truth is that this could just be the beginning.
Western Notes: Realignment, Ellis, Baertschi, Parise, Spurgeon
In a long notebook with many takes, The Athletic’s Eric Duhatschek (subscription required) points out that assuming that Seattle does acquire an expansion team that starts in the 2020-21 season, realignment will have to happen as it’s highly unlikely Seattle will end up in the Central Division, which is the division that’s short one team.
Duhatschek suggests the smartest way to fix the divisional problem when/if Seattle gives the NHL a 32nd team, would be to move the Colorado Avalanche to the Pacific Divison and then move both the Calgary Flames and Edmonton Oilers to the Central Division. Geographically, that would make the most sense, although neither Edmonton or Calgary would make a great fit in the Central. One other possibility would be that by 2020-21, the Arizona Coyotes may have decided to move away and relocate. That could also fix the problem, but only time will tell.
- Adam Vingan of the Tennessean writes that Nashville Predators defenseman Ryan Ellis has been practicing with the team and could return within the next couple of weeks. The 26-year-old stud defenseman has been out after knee surgery this summer. Vingan also writes that despite their solid defense, it’s likely the team will have to make a move with Matt Irwin and Anthony Bitetto the most likely candidates to be sent to the Milwaukee Admirals. Since the return of Yannick Weber a week ago, Irwin has been scratched twice, while Bitetto once.
- Patrick Johnston of The Province writes that Vancouver Canucks winger Sven Baertschi, who took a puck to the face during last night’s game against the Calgary Flames, will return home to Vancouver rather than continue with the team on their current roadtrip. While there are no details on the severity of the injury, Johnston said the angle of the shot and its velocity would suggest the injury could be significant as he has already been ruled out for the team’s game against the Winnipeg Jets on Monday. The 25-year-old has struggled lately on offense, but is still third on the team with eight goals this year.
- Sarah McLellan of the Star Tribune tweets that veteran Zach Parise and defenseman Jared Spurgeon are skating and may just be a couple of weeks away from returning to the team. Parise, who underwent back surgery in October, hasn’t played all year. He scored 19 goals and had 42 points last year for the Wild and was counted on to be a key contributor. Spurgeon has been out since Dec. 1 with a groin strain. He has three goals and 12 assists in 23 games this season.
- The Arizona Coyotes will play in their 21st road game of the season tonight when they face the Chicago Blackhawks tonight. The Coyotes will be the first team in NHL history to play 21 road games within the first 66 days of the season, according to NHL.com’s Dave Vest.
- Mike Chambers of the Denver Post tweets that defenseman Erik Johnson is fine after blocking a shot late in Saturday’s game against the Florida Panthers. He is expected to play Monday against the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Central Notes: Jost, Girard, Wennberg, Schwartz, Stastny
After a Friday report suggested 19-year-old center Tyson Jost of the Colorado Avalance might be allowed to play for Hockey Canada in the upcoming World Junior Championship in Buffalo in a few weeks, a new report from Mike Chambers of the Denver Post today suggests the opposite. In fact neither Jost nor defenseman Samuel Girard are likely to be allowed to leave Colorado.
The scribe writes that Avalanche coach Jared Bednar said he didn’t see that happening.
“It’s not up to me, but if it were I’d say no. They’re part of our team and we need them,” Bednar said.
Both Jost and Girard have said they have not spoken to Colorado Avalanche general manager Joe Sakic about playing in the under-20 tournament, which will start on Dec. 26. The tournament already has two top Colorado prospects in 2017 first-round pick Cale Makar and second-round pick Connor Timmons.
Jost and Girard both play with the Avalanche, although both players playing time have dropped recently. Jost plays on the “Kid Line” with Alexander Kerfoot and J.T. Compher and is still finding his way, while Girard has seen his time drop under 20 minutes after playing above that mark during his first eight games with the team.
“I’m just getting in my groove after being hurt so long,” Jost said. “I want to be here. Hockey Canada, whenever you can represent your country, it’s such an honor. I had my chance last year. Right now, honestly, I’m just focusing on playing on the Avs, focusing on earning the coach’s trust and put up numbers. Obviously, I haven’t been doing that and I’m trying not to get frustrated because I’m getting my chances and getting that opportunity. It will come. That’s what I’m focused on right now and just getting in this rhythm.”
- Lyle Richardson of The Hockey News suggests that despite the Columbus Blue Jackets’ previous stance that they are looking for a top-line center, many within the organization now feel that last year’s third overall pick, Pierre-Luc Dubois, is starting to show that he might be that player they were looking for. Dubois has taken a step forward in his development and now is centering the team’s top line with Artemi Panarin and Josh Anderson. Richardson even suggests that with the emergence of Dubois, the team might consider moving center Alexander Wennberg, who is struggling a bit this season after a 59-point season a year ago, and might be better off getting a chance on a different team, while the team focus on other areas of need. The team might need to get a center back, but with Brandon Dubinsky currently playing on the second line, the team might have an asset they could live without.
- Tom Timmermann of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that St. Louis Blues winger Jaden Schwartz, who left today’s game against the Detroit Red Wings after taking a shot off his right foot is considered day-to-day. Coach Mike Yeo said X-rays were negative and he will be re-examined when they return to St. Louis. Any time missed would be a huge loss for the Blues. The 25-year-old scored his 14th goal of the season before going down today.
- Staying with the Blues, The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford (subscription required) answers mailbag questions and writes that he doesn’t see the possibility of the NHL salary cap increasing potentially by $5MM as changing anything between negotiations between St. Louis and center Paul Stastny. Rutherford doesn’t believe that an increase in cap space will suddenly have general manager Doug Armstrong throwing money at Stastny. He believes the team has a set number in mind when it comes to Stastny and it will be up to him and his agent to decide if he wants to stay in St. Louis. The 31-year-old center hasn’t put up amazing numbers the last few years despite being paid $7MM AAV and will likely have to take a pay cut after his contract runs out at the end of the season. He currently has six goals and 20 points this season.
Tyson Jost Could Join Canada’s World Junior Team
Hockey Canada released a list of 32 players invited to the World Junior selection camp this month, as they prepare for the tournament in Buffalo. As we wrote when the list was released, it is possible for several other NHL players could be allowed to join the tournament as well should their clubs release them. Alexander Nylander, for instance, still doesn’t have an answer from the Buffalo Sabres on whether he’d be allowed to leave the Rochester Americans to play for Sweden.
Tyson Jost of the Colorado Avalanche is that player for Canada, and as Adrian Dater of BSN Denver reports it’s likely that he’ll be allowed to leave the team to play in the tournament. Jost’s development has been handled very carefully this season, with him spending time in the AHL to receive more minutes and work on his two-way game.
How can he play in the AHL and still be eligible for the World Juniors you ask?
Jost played in the BCHL before being drafted and heading to the University of North Dakota, meaning he’s not held to the same restrictions as CHL players. Remember, those drafted out of the CHL cannot play in the AHL until they turn 20. Jost is just 19 still, and would be a huge help to the Canadian team.
The 10th-overall pick in 2016, Jost has top-line upside as an all-around center and was part of the 2017 Canadian team that took home the silver medal. Even though the team already has plenty of talent to pick from, getting another returnee—especially one that has captained Canada on the international stage in the past—would increase their chances even more.
Colin Wilson Misses Second Straight Game With Undisclosed Injury
- Avalanche center Colin Wilson missed his second straight game tonight against the Devils. BSN Denver’s Adrian Dater suggests that head coach Jared Bednar was hoping he’d be able to play but now they’ll target Sunday as a return date from this undisclosed injury. Wilson’s first season in Colorado has been a quiet one as he has just a goal and four assists in 16 games.
Snapshots: IIHF HOF, Players Of The Month, Devils
The International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF) named their 2018 Hall of Fame class today, with several notable NHL names among them. Former stars Daniel Alfredsson, Rob Blake, Chris Chelios, and Jere Lehtinen will all be immortalized for their impressive international careers. Between them, the Swede, Canadian, American, and Finn have 16 Olympic Games and 8 Olympic medals, to of course go along with outstanding professional careers. Builders Philippe Lacarriere, a former European player and IIHF Councilman, and Bob Nadin, a long-time referee, will also be inducted.
- In terms of current recognition, the NHL announced the top players of the month of November today. The Three Stars of the Month were Colorado Avalanche star center Nathan MacKinnon at #1, Toronto Maple Leafs keeper Frederik Andersen at #2, and new St. Louis Blue Brayden Schenn at #3. MacKinnon was a point per game player last month, notching five goals and fifteen assists in 12 games for the Avs. Andersen kept the Leafs going with nine wins, a 2.14 GAA, and .938 save percentage. Schenn was arguably better than either despite coming in third, with seven goals and twelve assists in just 12 games, bringing his season total to 30 points in 25 contests. Vancouver Canucks winger Brock Boeser was named the Rookie of the Month behind his 16 points in 15 games, as the young scorer has kept the Canucks afloat early on and leads all first-year players in scoring.
- If there was an award for Team of the Month, it could have easily gone to the New Jersey Devils. The Devils have somehow survived another month at or near the top of the toughest division in hockey, the Metropolitan, despite little expectation that they would even be a playoff contender in 2017-18. To cap off the month, they swung a deal to acquire a much-needed elite defenseman yesterday as well. The Devils are just getting started though – the team announced that Sami Vatanen caught a cross-country flight, took part in morning skate, and will make his debut tonight and joining him will be Marcus Johansson, the big off-season acquisition, who is returning from a long injury absence. November was a great month for the Devils, but December is starting off even stronger.
Vegas, Toronto, Colorado Pursuing Ian Cole
Late last night a report from Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette broke that the Penguins were shopping Ian Cole. The 28-year old defenseman is an unrestricted free agent after this season, and hadn’t gotten anywhere in extension talks with Pittsburgh. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet added that Cole’s agent had been given permission to talk to other teams.
Now, Mackey has even more information on a potential Cole swap. In a piece from this morning, the Post-Gazette writer reports that the Vegas Golden Knights, Colorado Avalanche and Toronto Maple Leafs are the leading suitors for Cole’s services, and that he won’t be traded to anyone in the Metropolitan Division. With the standings so tight this season, it’s understandable that Pittsburgh wouldn’t want to hand over a two-time Stanley Cup champion.
It’s that playoff success that makes Cole’s availability so surprising. With Kris Letang and others injured in last year’s Stanley Cup run, Cole was a huge part of the Penguins success, playing in all 25 games and registering nine points. This season though he’s seen his role diminished to the point where he plays fewer than 17 minutes a night.
Toronto has been clear in their pursuit of defense since last season, and even added another Penguins Stanley Cup champion in Ron Hainsey this offseason. Cole’s $2.1MM cap hit is a very palatable number for teams in their situation, pressed up close to the cap ceiling.
Colorado has been a surprising team this season even after trading Matt Duchene away, and find themselves at 11-9-2 through the early part of the year. Though they’ve added several young defensemen to the organization in the past few months, a player like Cole could add some stability if he came with a long-term extension.
For Vegas, it does seem like a poor match. Though they do have some of the assets that Pittsburgh would be after, they already have too many defensemen on the roster and in the organization and would need to move some out before taking on a player like Cole. The fact that he’s a free agent at the end of the season works with their salary structure, but buying at the deadline doesn’t make sense for their long-term health.
Pittsburgh has been scratching Cole recently because of the trade talks, and Mackey believes that the deal will be completed quickly. Whether it is with one of those three teams or someone else is unclear, and what the Penguins are looking for in return is still anyone’s guess. They have been looking for help at center all season, and players like Tyler Bozak, Carl Soderberg or Jon Marchessault could be potential options from the above trio. Obviously those three examples come with different trade values, but help down the middle seems like the most likely result of the deal for the Penguins.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Gabriel Landeskog Suspended Four Games For Cross-Checking
The decision has come down on Gabriel Landeskog, and the NHL Department of Player Safety has suspended the Colorado Avalanche forward for four games. Landeskog earned the suspension for cross-checking Calgary Flames forward Matthew Tkachuk in the neck/head during Saturday night’s game.
This isn’t the first time Landeskog has been involved in a cross-checking incident, as the video explanation from the DoPS notes:
Although he is no long considered a repeat offender as defined by the CBA, it is important to note that Gabriel Landeskog has previously been suspended three games for a similar act in March of 2016.
That history led to a longer suspension this time around, but it won’t cost him any extra money. As Frank Seravalli of TSN points out, had he been suspended before his “repeat offender clock” ran in early September, he would have lost another $151,961 for this ban. Landeskog was actually suspended twice during that 2015-16 season, including a two-game ban for a blindside check to the head of Brad Marchand. His history is quite checkered with the league now, and will continue to see severe penalties handed down for any future incidents.
Amazingly, Tkachuk has now been the “victim” of two different suspend-able actions this season. He was the player who prompted Luke Witkowski to leave the bench after being ejected, earning the Red Wings’ player a ten-game ban earlier this month. Tkachuk has quite the reputation for getting under the skin of his opponents, and also leads the league in drawn minor penalties. Teams will have to make sure they don’t lose their cool when he’s on the ice, instead of continually playing into his hands and giving the Flames an advantage.
Avalanche Recall Tyson Jost; Landeskog To Have Hearing Monday
8:43 PM: Colorado has indeed recalled Jost, the team announced via Twitter.
6:53PM: The Avalanche are considering recalling center Tyson Jost from San Antonio of the AHL in advance of their next game on Wednesday, Mike Chambers of the Denver Post reports (Twitter link). Jost cracked Colorado’s opening roster but didn’t have too much of an impact early on. He played in six games before sustaining a lower-body injury and upon being activated off IR, the team opted to send him down to the minors for more playing time. Jost hasn’t been particularly productive in his limited action with the Rampage, posting a single assist in four games. Unless he takes on an important role in the next few weeks, Jost could still wind up being a candidate to play at the World Juniors.
- Still with the Avalanche, winger Gabriel Landeskog will have a disciplinary hearing on Monday for a cross-checking incident on Saturday against Calgary’s Matthew Tkachuk, the league announced. A minor penalty was assessed on the play. What may work against Landeskog here is that he will be viewed as a repeat offender as he received a three-game suspension for cross-checking on March of 2016.
Andrew Hammond Sent Back To Belleville
When the Colorado Avalanche traded Matt Duchene earlier this season, they acquired not only a solid package of young prospects and picks, but a salary-dump goaltender in Andrew Hammond. Hammond’s contract was too expensive to be sitting at the AHL level for the Ottawa Senators, so they shipped him off to Colorado to clear room for Duchene’s added costs.
With two NHL goaltenders on the books and a full crease in San Antonio, the Avalanche immediately started to shop Hammond around looking for a potential asset for the 29-year old goaltender. After all, Hammond had shown the ability to succeed in the NHL for at least short bursts and could be useful to a team with injuries in the crease.
It seems like they were unable to find a buyer though, as Colorado has once again loaned Hammond back to the Belleville Senators of the AHL, effectively sending him back to Ottawa while picking up his salary tab. His $1.35MM cap hit will mean that Colorado still takes a $225K hit even with him buried in the minor leagues, and his actual salary of $1.5MM will continue to be paid out by the Avalanche.