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Hurricanes Notes: Williams, van Riemsdyk, Forsberg

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Now one month into free agency, the top scorer left on the unrestricted free agent market is Carolina Hurricanes veteran Justin Williams. After Hurricanes GM Don Waddell spoke with the media today, The Raleigh News & Observer’s Chip Alexander writes that it is Carolina waiting on Williams and not the other way around. The 37-year-old is reportedly still weighing whether or not he wants to return for a 19th NHL season. However, Waddell indicated that Williams is at least leaning toward another year. The decision is not based on finances either, but rather just on whether Williams is physically up for another season. In fact, Waddell stated that the two sides have not talked contract terms at all, but is confident that a deal can be figured out despite the team’s lacking salary cap space. The Hurricane have just under $2.5MM open, but CapFriendly’s projection includes 23 players and Williams’ addition would bump another forward down to AHL Charlotte, meaning there’s slightly more space than it would appear. Waddell noted that an incentive-laden contract would allow the team to maneuver around the cap to fit Williams in. Williams is expected to be in Raleigh next week, likely with his decision made, so expect an announcement, one way or another, in short order. Given that he posted his highest point total since 2011-12 last season, it’s safe to assume that the respected veteran is not done just yet.

  • Alexander also relays from Waddell some news on injured defenseman Trevor van Riemsdyk. Despite early reports that van Riemsdyk could miss the beginning of the regular season, Waddell stated that he has already resumed skating. TVR suffered a serious shoulder injury in the postseason and went under the knife in early May. At the time, he was give a four-to-six month recover period that would have extended into November in the worst case scenario. Instead, he is clearly rehabbing well and is back on the ice after just three months. Waddell did warn that van Riemsdyk could be held out of contract drills early in training camp, but it certainly seems like the start of the regular season in October is well within his reach. Waddell added that forward Jordan Martinook is also doing well in his recovery from core surgery in late May.
  • The Hurricanes’ front office is keeping busy still at this point in the summer, with a possible Willams negotiation still to come and ongoing talks with restricted free agents Saku Maenalanen, Trevor Carrick, Roland McKeown, and Anton Forsberg. The latter is new to the organization, coming over from the Chicago Blackhawks in the Calvin de Haan trade. The goaltender may get a rough start to his tenure in Carolina, as he is currently slated for a salary arbitration hearing on Sunday. The 26-year-old Forsberg is currently expected to play behind Petr Mrazek and fellow new addition James Reimer, as well as possibly top goalie prospect Alex Nedeljkovic. The Hurricanes are likely willing to go through arbitration with Forsberg to argue for a two-way contract, so as to avoid paying an NHL salary to a player who is likely to be buried in the minor leagues next season. Forsberg, who did not make an NHL appearance last season, is still likely to argue that not only does he deserve a one-way contract, but he deserves a raise on his previous $750K salary, given his NHL experience and stout AHL numbers.
  • There is of course a chance that Forsberg could win the backup role behind Mrazek in training camp, as could Nedeljkovic. However, one of the key evaluators in that position battle is not yet in place. After goaltending coach Mike Bales resigned from his post in June to join the Buffalo Sabres, the Hurricanes have been on the hunt for his replacement. While a replacement has yet to be named, the announcement is imminent. Alexander writes that Waddell said the team is “close” to hiring a new goalie coach. Whoever that man is will play a key role in sorting through an intriguing situation in net, one that is unlikely to be completely decided in training camp alone.

Snapshots: Hughes, MacKenzie, Dwyer

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Jack Hughes hasn’t played a game in the NHL and Quinn Hughes has played just five, but already some are looking ahead to another member of the family. Young Luke Hughes, a 15-year old defenseman who will join the USNTDP next season is on the radar as a potential top pick in the 2021 NHL Entry Draft and was recently profiled by Ryan Dixon of Sportsnet.

Hughes has the same exceptional skating ability as his older brothers, but already stands 5’11” and has plenty of time to grow. Even if he never becomes a hulking defenseman there seems to be a good chance the trio will all be in the NHL at the same time down the road. The young prospect is currently committed to the University of Michigan for 2021-22, the same school that Quinn went to for two seasons before signing his entry-level deal with the Vancouver Canucks a few months ago.

  • The CHL has hired former NBA executive Dan MacKenzie as the league’s first full-time president, responsible for growing the junior leagues and “enhancing the player and fan experience.” All three commissioners—David Branch of the OHL, Gilles Courteau of the QMJHL and Ron Robison of the WHL—will stay in their current positions and work with MacKenzie, who has spent the last eight years as managing director of NBA Canada.
  • The Carolina Hurricanes have hired Patrick Dwyer as an assistant coach for the Charlotte Checkers. Dwyer only just finished his playing career after suiting up for a season with the Belfast Giants, but is very familiar with the Hurricanes organization. The 36-year old played 416 NHL games, all with Carolina and recorded 93 points. He’ll join new Checkers head coach Ryan Warsofsky in trying to replace the success delivered by Mike Vellucci before he left for the Pittsburgh Penguins organization earlier this summer.

Max McCormick Signs With Carolina Hurricanes

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The Carolina Hurricanes have added some more forward depth, signing Max McCormick to a one-year, two-way contract. The deal will carry a $700K salary at the NHL level. GM Don Waddell released a short statement:

Max is a hard-nosed forward who has shown a scoring touch and an ability to kill penalties at the AHL level. This signing adds depth to our forward group.

McCormick, 27, spent most of his professional career in the Ottawa Senators organization before a trade last year took him to Colorado. In Ottawa, he received 71 NHL opportunities over the years in which he scored ten points and registered 78 penalty minutes. The feisty winger has been more effective in the minor leagues, meaning he’ll probably end up playing with the Charlotte Checkers this season.

The Hurricanes have improved their group up front considerably since this time last year, bringing in names like Nino Niederreiter, Ryan Dzingel, Erik Haula and Brian Gibbons, meaning there might not be much opportunity for McCormick in the NHL. If you were to pick an AHL organization though, why not head to the defending Calder Cup champions. The Checkers lost their head coach and GM when Mike Vellucci left for the Penguins, but should still be a force in the AHL’s Eastern Conference.

Hurricanes Re-Sign Brock McGinn

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Brock McGinn’s arbitration hearing was slated for Saturday morning but it wasn’t needed in the end.   The team announced that they’ve agreed to a two-year, $4.2MM contract with the winger. GM Don Waddell released a brief statement on the signing:

We’re relieved to have this settled before going to arbitration. Brock was an important part of what we accomplished last season and we’re happy to have him as part of our group moving forward.

The deal will pay $1.9MM next season and $2.3MM in 2020-21 and will take him to unrestricted free agency.  The $2.1MM AAV checks in slightly below the $2.225MM midpoint of the initial filings and right within the range that our Zach Leach predicted yesterday when he broke down each side of the case.

The 25-year-old has emerged as a capable bottom-six forward for Carolina over the past couple of seasons.  While his offensive numbers slightly dipped from 2017-18, McGinn still put up 26 points (10-16-26) in 82 regular season games last year and chipped in at a similar rate with six points (2-4-6) in 15 postseason contests as the Hurricanes made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Final.

McGinn also provides Carolina with some grit as he recorded 137 hits in each of the last two seasons.  He also led the Hurricanes in shorthanded ice time per game among forwards which certainly helped his value.  In the end, he winds up more than doubling his previous AAV of $887.5K.

With this deal now done, Waddell can shift his focus to his group of AHL restricted free agents, a list headlined by goalie Anton Forsberg and winger Saku Maenalanen.  Forsberg’s arbitration hearing is slated for August 4th, the final day for hearings so there is still plenty of time for the two sides to work something out.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman (Twitter link) was the first to report the deal.

Arbitration Breakdown: Brock McGinn

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Salary arbitration season is underway, as hearings begin on July 20th and extend through August 4th. While arbitration awards are very infrequent, with most cases settling beforehand, occasionally a binding decision is handed down by the arbitrator. What goes on behind closed doors before that point? The players, aided by their representation and the NHLPA, and their respective teams, aided by a select group of lawyers, each file at a certain salary over a one- or two-year term. The arbitrator may decide on any salary at or between those two points, based on the arguments in each sides’ written brief and oral presentation. While both sides will have themes to base their arguments on, rather than debate only the merits of the player, the bulk of the conversation in an arbitration hearing instead centers around comparable players. Each side will use a tailored group of statistical ranges, both career and platform year numbers, to show how the player compares to similar recent arbitration-eligible players. All statistics are available to use, but their persuasiveness is the key. The player side will look to show that the player is superior to a group of players at a salary lower than their filing number, while the team side will look to show that player is inferior to a group of players above their filing number. Whoever makes the most convincing argument will land the favorable decision.

Brock McGinn of the Carolina Hurricanes was the first arbitration filing to become public this off-season and fittingly landed an early hearing date. Barring a last-minute settlement, in less than 24 hours he will also be the first player to go through the arbitration process this summer. Here is a closer look at his case:

The Case of Brock McGinn

Career Statistics: 240 games played, 36 goals, 40 assists, 76 points, -27 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games played, 10 goals, 16 assists, 26 points, +10 rating

Filing Numbers: McGinn – One year, $2.7MM, Hurricanes – One year, $1.75MM (midpoint: $2.225MM)

Player Side

Themes:

  • Regular Contributor: played in all 82 games in platform season, 162 of last 164; top-nine Hurricanes forward in ATOI, points, and shots in platform season
  • Key Defensive Player: led Hurricanes forwards in shorthanded ATOI; among top-four Hurricanes forwards in plus/minus, hits, blocked shots, and takeaways

Potential Comparable Players:

Scott Laughton (2019)
Career Statistics: 272 games played, 31 goals, 48 assists, 79 points, -24 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games played, 12 goals, 20 assists, 32 points, -11 rating
Salary: $2.3MM

  • Player’s argument: better career points per game, better career total goals, better platform plus/minus
  • Team’s counter: Laughton had better platform season, Laughton is better defensive player, Laughton’s salary reflects a premium for center position

Zack Kassian (2017)
Career Statistics: 313 games played, 45 goals, 53 assists, 98 points, -21 rating
Platform Statistics: 79 games played, 7 goals, 17 assists, 24 points, +4 rating
Salary: $1.95MM

  • Player’s argument: better platform, higher points per game career, more consistent goal scorer, better defensive numbers
  • Team’s counter: similar points per game career, Kassian had close to full season more experience

Team Side

Themes:

  • Fourth-line forward: outside top-nine Hurricanes forwards in even strength ATOI, no role on the power play
  • Not a reliable goal scorer: low shooting percentage (8.1% platform, 9.4% career), tied for 12th among Hurricanes forwards in goals per game; no game-winning goals or overtime goals in regular season
  • Regression: goals, points, shooting percentage, ATOI all down in platform season from year prior

Potential Comparable Players:

Joel Armia (2019)
Career Statistics: 237 games, 39 goals, 42 assists, 81 points, -3 rating
Platform Statistics: 57 games, 13 goals, 10 assists, 23 points, even rating
Salary: $2.6MM

  • Team’s argument: Armia has better career points per game, Armia has far better platform, similar defensive numbers
  • Player’s counter: better career-high goals, better physical game

Artturi Lehkonen (2019)
Career Statistics: 221 games, 41 goals, 39 assists, 80 points, -2 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games, 11 goals, 20 assists, 31 points, +10 rating
Salary: $2.4MM

  • Team’s argument: Lehkonen has better career and platform points per game, Lehkonen has better career and platform goals, Lehkonen has more consistent offensive numbers, similarly low shooting percentage – Lehkonen more involved offensively, similar defensive numbers
  • Player’s counter: different styles of player – Lehkonen far less physical, Lehkonen’s career and platform numbers inflated by substantially more ice time

Prediction

This is not an exhaustive list of possible comparable players, but based on the player side and team side filing numbers and the resulting midpoint, the Carolina Hurricanes have a stronger case with the comparable players available than does Brock McGinn. Expect a potential decision to be in the $2-2.2MM range.

Minor Transactions: 07/18/19

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As July marches on and we get closer to arbitration hearings and contract holdouts, teams continue to fill our their organizational depth charts. Here are some minor moves from around the league:

  • The Toronto Marlies continue to add more depth, signing Ryan Johnston and Michael Kapla to AHL contracts. Kapla spent last season with the Binghamton Devils and Iowa Wild, recording 24 points in 66 games. The defenseman is a former Umass-Lowell captain that played five games in the NHL during the 2016-17 season. Johnston meanwhile spent the last two seasons in the SHL, but also has ten games of NHL experience under his belt.
  • The Hershey Bears have signed Tariq Hammond to an AHL deal, bringing in another former Binghamton defenseman. The 25-year old played 43 games for the AHL Devils last season, recording three points. Hammond was part of the 2017 NCAA champion University of Denver squad alongside other NHL players like Troy Terry, Henrik Borgstrom, Dylan Gambrell and Will Butcher, and took over as captain the following season.
  • The Hartford Wolf Pack have signed Ryan Dmowski to another AHL deal, keeping him in the organization after he joined them earlier this spring out of college. The 22-year old left winger had four points in ten games down the stretch for the Wolf Pack, and will likely be asked to play a bigger role in his first full professional season.
  • Carolina has brought in some AHL depth, announcing the signings of wingers Hunter Shinkaruk and Colin Markison plus defenseman Derek Sheppard to AHL deals.  Shinkaruk, a first-round pick of Vancouver back in 2013, had a disastrous season with Montreal’s farm team and was non-tendered last month.  Meanwhile, Markison has posted back-to-back 27-point seasons with Texas of the AHL while Sheppard was quite productive at the ECHL last season with 40 points in 57 games.

Brock McGinn, Carolina Hurricanes Exchange Arbitration Figures

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Brock McGinn’s arbitration hearing is first on the books this year, scheduled for Saturday in Toronto. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet has received word on the figures exchanged from both sides, tweeting that McGinn’s camp is looking for $2.7MM while Carolina is hoping for $1.75MM. It is important to remember that not only can the two sides still negotiate a different deal in the time remaining (and even for a short period after the hearing), the arbitration decision also does not need to be one figure or the other. The award can (and usually does) fall somewhere in the middle of the submitted salaries.

McGinn, 25, is coming off a two-year, $1.775MM contract so regardless of where the decision lands he is about to get a healthy raise. The second round pick has developed into a useful bottom-six winger that can chip in offensively from time to time and bring a strong level of physicality every night. Though he had just ten goals in 2018-19 he had 16 the year prior, and is the team’s leading penalty killing forward. That’s a useful piece for a team trying to return to the playoffs and contend for the Stanley Cup, especially when he has shown he can play up in the lineup when asked to, at least for short periods of time.

The Hurricanes have a few other restricted free agents to sign but are working with a healthy amount of cap space even after signing Sebastian Aho to a big extension and bringing in some help up front. With additions like Ryan Dzingel and Erik Haula the team should have a deeper group of forwards who can score, letting others like McGinn feast on even easier matchups.

Remember that the team is allowed to select whether the award is for one or two years, a decision that may not be quite so simple. While a one-year term would leave McGinn a restricted free agent again next summer, a two-year award would lock him in at a reasonable number while the team works to build the rest of the roster. Cost controlled players are valuable, and there would still be the option to extend him at some point before he reached unrestricted free agency in 2021. None of that will matter if the two sides can work out a deal in the coming days however, which is still definitely a possibility.

Poll: How Many Unresolved Arbitration Cases Will Require An Award?

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In the NHL, the salary arbitration process is more often used as a negotiating tool – an incentive to get a deal done before the uncomfortable setting of a hearing and the unknown of an arbitrator’s decision – than it is for its actual purpose. A vast majority of players who file for arbitration end up settling before their hearing or even at the last moment before an award is handed down. Last year, 44 players filed for arbitration and 40 settled prior to their hearing. The year before, all 30 cases were resolved before an arbitration award could be made.

So what about this year? There were initially 40 cases of player-elected arbitration and one case of team-elected arbitration (the St. Louis Blues and goalie Ville Husso), but that number is now down to 25 open cases. That’s a substantial drop-off, but time is running out for some RFA’s and their teams to come to terms, as the first scheduled hearing is set to take place on Saturday, July 20th. Listed below are all of the remaining cases:

July 20: Brock McGinn, Carolina Hurricanes
July 21: Andrew Copp, Winnipeg Jets
July 22: MacKenzie Weegar, Florida Panthers; Zach Aston-Reese, Pittsburgh Penguins; Ville Husso, St. Louis Blues; Christian Djoos, Washington Capitals
July 23: Evan Rodrigues, Buffalo Sabres
July 24: Oskar Sundqvist, St. Louis Blues; Neal Pionk, Winnipeg Jets
July 25: Jacob Trouba, New York Rangers
July 26: Colton Sissons, Nashville Predators
July 27: Sam Bennett, Calgary Flames
July 28: Mirco Mueller, New Jersey Devils
July 29: David Rittich, Calgary Flames; Pavel Buchnevich, New York Rangers
August 1: Remi Elie, Buffalo Sabres; Chandler Stephenson, Washington Capitals
August 2: Linus Ullmark, Buffalo Sabres; Charles Hudon, Montreal Canadiens; Will Butcher, New Jersey Devils
August 4: Jake McCabe, Buffalo Sabres; Anton Forsberg, Carolina Hurricanes; Sheldon Dries, Colorado Avalanche; Rocco Grimaldi, Nashville Predators; Joel Edmundson, St. Louis Blues

Given the time constraints and the complexity of each of these cases, how many will feel forced to go to hearing? Will Trouba be one of that select group, as he was last year? Will the Sabres struggle to settle four cases before their scheduled hearing dates? Will the Blues see through their team-elected case with Husso? Will other goalies prove to be difficult negotiations? And will polarizing players like Bennett and Buchnevich fail to find common ground with their teams? Or will it be under-the-radar players like Gemel Smith and Brett Kulak last year who go through the full process?

There are many questions left about this group of restricted free agents and time is running out before we know the answers. So the choice is yours: will we see an unprecedented class of arbitration awards or will all or most cases reach a resolution in the coming weeks?

[Mobile users click here to vote]

Seattle Expected To Name Ron Francis As GM

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9:00pm: The Seattle Times’ Geoff Baker relays word from multiple sources that Francis will be hired and an announcement is expected this week. Baker adds that Francis will be given a multi-year contract “described as midrange in terms of other NHL GMs.” He also believes that Francis will be given full say on the hiring of the coaching staff and front office staff and may even have input on the team’s naming decision.

8:30pm: Many expected the Seattle expansion group to name their general manager this summer, with less than two years to go before the 2021 Expansion Draft. A large assortment of names have been in consideration for the position over the past year or so. In fact, the job seemed destined to go to now-Edmonton Oilers head coach Dave Tippett at one point. The new leading candidate? Former Carolina Hurricanes GM Ron Francis. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman writes that Seattle is closing in on selecting Francis as their inaugural GM and feels that an announcement could becoming within days. The team has not confirmed the rumor at this time.

Francis, of course, was a Hall of Fame player who won two Stanley Cups and was a four-time All-Star in 23 NHL seasons with the Hartford Whalers/Carolina Hurricanes and Pittsburgh Penguins. Francis, an elite defensive forward and skilled play-maker, averaged better than a point-per-game on average over a whopping 1731 career games, including three 100+ point seasons. After retiring in 2004, Francis transitioned into a front office role with the Hurricanes in 2006 and eventually worked his way up to GM in 2014, a role he served in until he was fired last summer.

During his tenure in Carolina, Francis was criticized for making too few impact trades, bringing in hardly any impact players due to what many perceived to be a an over-hesitation to take a risk. Francis also showed similar hesitation on the free agent market and failed to improve his team externally, as the Hurricanes did not make the playoffs during his time as GM. However, the team is now reaping the benefits of his ability to draft and develop, as evidenced by a largely young and homegrown group making a run to the Eastern Conference Final this season. If the Seattle group is focused on Francis, it is likely that they value his ability to find value in the draft and to build a strong pipeline, a key factor for any upstart expansion franchise. Francis may also fare differently in adding talent, via expansion draft, trade, or free agency, with a clean slate, comfortable funding, and substantial leverage over his competitors, many of whom will look to swing deals to protect their assets in the expansion draft process.

Francis’ understanding of the game from his stellar playing career and his experience in the GM role make him a strong candidate for the Seattle position. How it all works out though, should he be the final selection, will be determined by how he handles the tricky situation of the expansion draft, and relevant trades, and his first entry draft and free agency in 2021.

Haydn Fleury, Gustav Forsling Re-Sign With Carolina Hurricanes

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The Carolina Hurricanes have reached an agreement with Haydn Fleury, signing the young defenseman to a one-year contract. Fleury will earn $850K in 2019-20. GM Don Waddell released a short statement:

Haydn has taken strides during each of his three professional seasons in our organization. We’ve been encouraged by his development and our hope is that he becomes a fixture in our lineup.

Fleury, 23, may finally get an opportunity to see some more ice time in Carolina, after spending much of last season shuffling between the NHL and AHL. Selected seventh overall in 2014, Fleury played just 20 games for the Hurricanes last season and averaged just 12:32 in those contests. With Noah Hanifin and Calvin de Haan traded to the Calgary Flames and Chicago Blackhawks respectively though, there may finally be an opening on the left side of the team’s top-four.

There’s no doubt that Jaccob Slavin will take on the bulk of the minutes on that side, and there is always the possibility that one of the team’s talented right-handed options moves over. Still, this may be Fleury’s best chance to really establish himself as a core piece of the Carolina blue line as they attempt to get back to the playoffs and compete for the Stanley Cup. Gustav Forsling came over from the Blackhawks in the de Haan trade, and Jake Bean is pushing hard to be considered an NHL option, but Fleury should have the inside track at training camp thanks to his familiarity with the team.

It’s important to note that Fleury did suit up nine times in the Hurricanes’ recent playoff run and then returned to the Charlotte Checkers to help them win a Calder Cup. The young defenseman has all the tools to be an effective NHL player and now just needs the opportunity. For the low cost of $850K, both sides are hoping he can take that next step. He will be a restricted free agent still next summer.

Forsling meanwhile has also signed a one-year, two-way contract with the Hurricanes at his qualifying offer salary of $874,125 in the NHL. The 23-year old has actually now played 122 games in the NHL, all with the Blackhawks over the last three seasons. He has 27 points during those games and showed himself to be at very least a bottom-pairing option in the NHL moving forward. Whether he gets those minutes right away in Carolina is still to be seen, but he gives the team another young player to build their blue line around.

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