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Snapshots: Gagner, Condon, Hamonic

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The Blackhawks are linked to Columbus UFA Sam Gagner, by way of a report from The Athletic’s Scott Powers. The parties have reached out to one another and expressed “mutual interest”. Gagner could be a good fit in Chicago, as he could jump-start an oddly sluggish powerplay, which finished 24th in the league last season. As always, an issue with signing in the Windy City is available cap dollars. Even after parting with Scott Darling, Artemi Panarin and Niklas Hjalmarsson, the team is $2.99 MM over the cap ceiling, Luckily the team doesn’t have any free agents that absolutely need to be re-signed, so they are free to prune a few forwards from the roster to get within acceptable range. Adding another mid-tier contract could complicate matters. The team has already been rumored to move on from center Marcus Kruger, who only makes $3.083 MM himself. Gagner will be looking for a figure around there after his career season, so his acquisition would mean more shuffling from GM Stan Bowman.

Judging by the fan reaction to the Panarin and Hjalmarsson moves, further shuffling might only serve to further shake confidence in the team’s direction. This isn’t even taking into account the Marian Hossa Long-Term Injured Reserve (LTIR) drama, which alone should make for an interesting summer. For what it’s worth, Sportsnet’s Mark Spector believes Gagner will not return to Edmonton, so that eliminates a potential landing spot. Still, there are few available centers with his skill-set and offensive output, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see Chicago out-bid on this particular player.

  • The Flyers are not comfortable with an Anthony Stolarz and Michael Neuvirth tandem heading into 2017-18, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Sam Carchidi. Carchidi goes through the entire UFA selection, including former Flyer Steve Mason, Brian Elliott, Jonathan Bernier, Ryan Miller, and even Keith Kinkaid. Bernier could be a fit, but with his inconsistency I don’t see it being a good one. Mason endured a good deal of fan blame this season, and while a short-term deal is not impossible, it’s a fair assumption he searches for a role in another town. If the Flyers wanted to run a tandem, Neuvirth with Condon could work quite well. The author doesn’t believe that Condon is much of an upgrade over Stolarz, but at 23 and with 2 career wins, Stolarz is simply not at the same level. It’s rare to see a goalie that young be able to take a 40 game (or more) NHL workload with total success. Considering the Flyers’ developing defense, it might be a wise decision on GM Ron Hextall’s part to shelter him in the AHL for another season. Stolarz is definitely their future, and they will look to find a one to two year agreement with whatever stopgap they decide on.
  • A fascinating piece from Newsday’s Arthur Staple details what can only be described as an odd non-deal. The Islanders apparently offered Travis Hamonic and a 1st round pick to Colorado for Matt Duchene, which was subsequently declined by GM Joe Sakic. Isles GM Garth Snow proceeded to move Hamonic for picks while acquiring Jordan Eberle in a separate transaction. Duchene remains in Denver, and apparently his agent Pat Brisson is not happy with the turn of events. Duchene has been linked to trade rumors since nearly the start of the season, which saw his Avalanche finish with an abysmal 48 point dead-last league finish. Sakic was rumored to have a heavy asking price, and this apparent rejection only solidifies those rumblings. Hamonic himself ended up fetching a 1st and two 2nds from Calgary, which is a sizable haul for the Isles. Islanders faithful can’t be too disappointed by the alternative route Snow traversed.

Free Agent Focus: Florida Panthers

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The free agent period is now less than one week away from opening up and there are several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  Here is a breakdown of the Florida Panthers’ free agent situation.

Key Restricted Free Agents: D Alex Petrovic only had 1 goal and 13 assists last season, but his possession stats were remarkably solid among his peers at 50.8% Corsi For. He earned $1.05 MM on his last contract, and he is due at least a slight raise. His size (6’4″) and physicality is an important asset to round out the bottom pairings of the defensive corps, even if management isn’t expecting him to light the world on fire. D Mark Pysyk, also 25 years old, has shown a bit more potential. He has less of a shutdown presence, but makes up for it by contributing to the offense on occasion. He moves the puck well with a solid if unremarkable first pass – which in today’s possession-centric NHL tends to increase value. Pysyk still hasn’t put it all together, but he’ll be a useful cog for Florida going forward. Interestingly enough, Florida’s defense is so sparse that both Pysyk and Petrovic were protected.

Other RFA’s: G MacKenzie Weegar.

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: F Jaromir Jagr. Jagr is certainly on the downside of his career, but he still can produce points at a decent clip. He’s been a mainstay of the Panthers offense for the last two-and-a-half seasons. He only netted 16 goals, but added 30 assists to reach a reasonable 46 points. However, his contract was a tad overpriced for a 45 year old, at a $4 MM cap hit. Management apparently wants the veteran back on the squad next season according to a report by the Miami Herald’s George Richards. Richards states that the price would need to come down, but there is a solid chance he could get last year’s salary from another team desperate for production. If Florida truly wants to bring back the battle-tested winger (who sits 3rd in all-time goals), they will need to find room within their internal cap structure. His speed is certainly becoming an issue, and it remains to be seen how integral he is perceived internally.

F Thomas Vanek doesn’t look likely to make a return to the Sunshine State, as he is quite arguably the 4th best winger available after Alexander Radulov, Justin Williams, and Patrick Marleau. The chances of seeing Vanek seeing a contract similar to his $6.5 MM earned the last three seasons are almost completely non-existent, but he could easily fetch near $5 MM offer for multiple years from an offense-starved squad. Vanek did net 48 points last season, but he has the potential to do more. Vanek will almost surely find his kindest offers elsewhere. He only netted two goals in 20 games after being acquired from the Detroit Red Wings.

Other UFA’s: F Micheal Scarbossa, D Jakub Kindl, G Sam Brittain, F Kyle Rau, F Brody Sutter, G Adam Wilcox, F Chase Balisy, F Graham Black, F Paul Thompson, D Reece Scarlett, G Colin Stevens, F Steven Hodges, D Brent Regner.

Projected Cap Space: The Panthers do have slightly over $20 MM in cap space if they were to re-sign no one, but they are almost certain to re-sign Pysyck and Petrovic to short-term deals. Weegar has also been extended a qualifying offer, but it will likely be a two-way deal. Assuming they make a combined $4 MM, GM Dale Tallon will likely have about $16 MM in space with 16 roster players accounted for.  His main concern has to be solidifying the defense so a repeat of last year doesn’t happen. However, with Jon Marchessault and Reilly Smith inexplicably shipped to Vegas, and likely one of Jagr and Vanek headed to other destinations, Tallon needs to add solid secondary scoring. It’s expected that Florida will be active on July 1st and into the Summer, especially with so many expiring organizational contracts – they only have 26 of the allotted 50 as of today. The organization has tried to revamp on the fly, but they will need a remarkably successful summer to re-coup all that is being lost especially in light of the meager talent available in the UFA pool. The biggest money constraint is whatever ownership places the internal cap at, which is unbeknownst to the league at large.

Flames To Sign Spencer Foo

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One of the biggest college free agent prizes has decided on his NHL destination, according to TSN’s Bob McKenzie. Union forward Spencer Foo will sign with the Calgary Flames. The 6’0″, 180 pound right winger scored 26 goals and added 36 assists in his Junior season with the Union Dutchmen. He was known in NCAA circles for being the motor behind the highest scoring line in college hockey, alongside Mike Vecchione, who ended up in Philadelphia.

Foo was previously linked to other teams, most seriously those same Flyers. However, Foo decided to change course, as he and his agent were pursued by other teams with more glaring holes at the winger position. Although details are scarce as to the rationale, one has to imagine that he was looking to have a serious opportunity on the right side. Calgary is weak on the right side, and only two players are under contract that naturally slot there: Troy Brouwer and Michael Frolik. The Flyers, by comparison, have multiple flexible core players who can slot on that side, including mainstays Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds, and Jakub Voracek, with Matt Read and Dale Weise also getting looks. In Calgary, he is almost certain to have a crack at the top-9 on the roster, with the ability to play with creative talents Johnny Gaudreau and Sam Bennett.

Foo is tough for his size and has good skating ability. He has been lauded for his exceptional work ethic and conditioning, which at 23 will provide a decent opportunity to smoothly transition. The odds are against him to make an immediate offensive impact, as many college signings still take time to develop. For the re-building Flames, however, the signing is a perfect fit. Foo will be allowed to blossom alongside the young core that is already present, without worrying too heavily about internal competition for ice time on the wing.

Terms will not be revealed until that July 1st date, when the Unrestricted Free Agency signing period starts. Flames Nation’s Ryan Pike expects the deal to be a two-year entry level contract, at somewhere near the maximum $925,000 per year.

Snapshots: Methot, Karlsson, Marchessault

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The Ottawa Senators were put in a rough predicament when Dion Phaneuf turned down the team’s request to waive his no-trade clause. The organization is very high on Cody Ceci, and considering the depth of forwards they needed to protect, they were forced to expose Marc Methot. Many mock drafts have the veteran defender headed to Vegas, including our own. Some have even contemplated whether Methot could find himself in a captaincy position in Nevada. Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun explains how difficult a decision that was for Pierre Dorion and his staff, and how they tried to trade Phaneuf up until the last minute. Ottawa could theoretically try to bribe Vegas with the #28 pick, but considering that the team only has 4 picks overall, that seems unlikely. The more probable scenario is that Ottawa merely takes the blow and moves on.

  • The Blue Jackets truly want to hang onto their youngest talents, according to Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch. They are supposedly surrendering their 1st round selection to Vegas in order to keep Josh Anderson and Joonas Korpisalo. What makes nearly no sense is the apparent fact that this deal also warns the Knights off of veteran defenseman Jack Johnson. Johnson is an average defender, and with the rise of Zach Werenski and others he doesn’t seem to be a pivotal piece any longer. Vegas will probably choose William Karlsson or Ryan Murray as low-risk claims and run away happy from this deal. The valuation of a first-rounder is probably the lowest in ages, and the anxiety surrounding the protection lists has seemingly reduced their value even further.
  • Harvey Fialkov of the Sun Sentinel has Jonathan Marchessault headed to Vegas, based on the reports he’s been hearing. Defenders Jason Demers and young forward Reilly Smith are also available as high-value options for the Knights. According to Marchessault himself in an interview on TVA Sports, Tallon wasn’t able to negotiate a protection deal with Vegas. He was certainly being shopped in the lead up to Sunday. The entire Florida protection list was confusing, but Marchessault’s exposure was a truly unforced error by GM Dale Tallon. The 30-goal scorer will almost certainly find a home in Vegas’ top six, and the loss of this quality of player for absolutely nothing is perplexing the entire league. It’s certainly possible Marchessault has a down year after a career one, but asset management was completely blown in this case, and Vegas looks to reap that reward.

Islanders Likely To Move Grabovski And 15th Overall To Vegas

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Arthur Staple of Newsday has had to deal with multiple changes in story for the Islanders in the wake of their bizarre protection scheme released yesterday. It seems as though the rationale behind that suspect arrangement might finally be coming to light.

According to Staple, there is a complicated arrangement between Vegas and the Islanders to move Mikhail Grabovski to the team as well as steer Vegas’ pick by enticing them with a 1st-round selection (#15). The 33 year-old Grabovski has had massive concussion issues which kept him sidelined all last season. There’s a very real possibility that Grabovski never fully recovers to full form, so this would be a pure cap dump from the perspective of Vegas. He hasn’t played over 60 games in a season since 2012, and although he has posted decent offensive numbers, he’s never broken 60 points. His contract is worth $5 MM and only runs for another season. It remains to be seen what enticement Vegas will need in order to take on that contract.

The 1st round pick will be offered to Vegas in exchange for their staying away from certain players. As of now, it seems probable that this means the protection of Brock Nelson and/or Calvin de Haan, as other names have been floated with little confirmation. Nikolai Kulemin could be a possible intriguing draft target for Vegas – it would help the cap situation of Garth Snow even further and he has a tight connection with Grabovski. Kulemin is also only under contract for another season, at $4.19 MM.

Even in light of this this information, the whole arrangement seems wildly unnecessary and convoluted. However, If Vegas is willing to take on injured players contracts and cap dumps, as this deal would imply, it may keep the doors open for players such as Toronto’s Joffrey Lupul.  If there are any further details that break before Vegas’ selections, we at PHR will be on top of the development.

Entry Draft Notes: Avalanche, Stars, Flyers

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The Colorado Avalanche seem to be at least entertaining the possibility of moving down in the draft. According to Mike Chambers of the Denver Post, the team is split internally over whether to select the best player available or to draft a dynamic defenseman, which is their biggest organizational need at the moment. Finding the proper balance between these two philosophies is always difficult, and ultimately, the scouts are the ones who need to believe in a particular player. It is interesting to note that Chambers doesn’t see defender Cale Makar being taken that early in the draft, and that the Avalanche might be “stuck” selecting another forward. Makar actually got votes for the top pick from one of TSN’s analysts, and there are many who believe he will hop into the top-5. Bob McKenzie actually had him slotted in at that #4 spot, so it’s a bit difficult to determine what the Avalanche are thinking here.

If the organization did decide to trade to a lower pick, as director of amateur scouting Alan Hepple says is “a scenario…that they’re ready for”, it would likely include a piece that will provide more immediate help for the team. After a 48 point season, that could mean plugging a hole at practically any position. It’s a lot to consider, especially in light of the Matt Duchene trade rumors which haven’t stopped swirling since they began halfway through the season. This article will only keep more eyes peeled on the team from Denver headed into Friday’s draft.

  • The Flyers don’t seem to have the blinders on regarding their #2 selection, according to Sam Carchidi of the Philadelphia Inquirer.  They are spending most of their time and energy focusing on the later rounds. This makes sense for any team with a top selection, but especially for Philadelphia who will almost certainly draft whichever of Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier remains. The team is heavily invested in looking to load up on offensive talent, and with 11 picks in this year’s draft, they’ve set themselves up very well. One of the major criticisms for the team in recent drafting has been the over-emphasis on physicality and intangibles, while ignoring more dynamic offensive players. We’ll see if they can avoid that pitfall this weekend.
  • The Stars look to be leaning away from the big Windsor forward Gabriel Vilardi, according to Sean Shapiro of NHL.com. He also speculates that Dallas is particularly high on the aforementioned Makar and HIFK’s shifty Miro Heiskanen. They look to be focusing on defense for another draft, and with their top-end offense it’s no wonder why. They just exposed Cody Eakin to Vegas because of their glut of center-men, and even though Vilardi is an exceptional, versatile forward – he’s not a need. Both Makar and Heiskanen were ranked in the top-5 final rankings by McKenzie, so it’s difficult to see Dallas moving from their #3 position.

Should Vegas Corner Goalie Market?

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With the recent trade of Mike Smith to Calgary, the market for starting goaltenders is dwindling even further. An interesting dynamic for the Vegas Golden Knights as they choose their team will be whether they opt to select every quality goalie out there in order to flip them to other teams. There are quite a few available – Marc-Andre Fleury of Pittsburgh, Eddie Lack (and Cam Ward) of Carolina, Calvin Pickard of Colorado, Antti Raanta of New York, Petr Mrazek of Detroit, Roberto Luongo of Florida, Jaroslav Halak of the Islanders, Michal Neuvirth of Philadelphia, Peter Budaj of Tampa Bay, and Philipp Grubauer of Washington, with a few interesting prospects also exposed.  As we’ve seen in the past few seasons, dealing a goaltender for anything remotely resembling fair value can be an enormous challenge. The salary cap has really warped the value of a solid starting goaltender in a way that has not been totally beneficial to the players.

One down season and a tender’s value goes down quite heavily. The top ten goalies in the league always seem to find a home on the rare occasion they hit unrestricted free agency, but that has been a rare occurrence. Many might point to the 2010 Stanley Cup Final when they isolate a particular moment that the highly-paid goaltender became an oddity. In that Final, Michael Leighton, third-string for Philadelphia, faced off against the very pedestrian Antti Niemi, who was then  sacrificed for cap reasons. With the whole league watching, these teams ascended to hockey’s main stage with relative no names in the crease. While that moment may have been particularly damaging, the moment for me was the fiasco that was the Luongo and Cory Schneider trade saga in Vancouver, which lasted parts of 2 seasons. Then Canucks GM Mike Gillis had a terrible time finding a suitor for Luongo before finally being forced to ship Schneider off in the 2013 offseason for a 9th round pick. This too, was terrible value, considering that Schneider was one of the best young goalies in the league and coming off a scorching season where he had a .937 save percentage. This ordeal took place less than two years after Luongo had taken the team to its first Final since 1994. Granted, Luongo’s contract was considered a bit of an albatross, but it very publicly cemented the value of goaltenders on the trade market as minimal.

Looking forward to the present day, and the last two goaltenders have been traded for rather uninspiring returns. Arizona’s Smith only fetched a 3rd rounder, and Ben Bishop only netted a 4th from Dallas. GM George McPhee could end up hosting a goaltender buffet, with few paying customers. He would be wise to gauge the interest of other teams before deciding on their selections in net. They obviously want to draft a solid starter and a few young goaltenders as future cornerstones. They need to draft 3, and it’s difficult to envision them drafting less than 4 with the enticing names available out there. But if they decide to go into 5 or 6 goaltender territory, McPhee could manufacture a logjam that could be difficult to sort out. After all, only the WInnipeg Jets are truly desperate for a starting goaltender, and that’s assuming they don’t want one of Brian Elliott, Mike Condon, or another UFA to be their partner for Connor Hellebuyck. Philadelphia could be interested in a younger asset, and there are always teams who will desperately seek a starter mid-season when a keeper inevitably goes down to injury. That said, the market simply doesn’t favor the strategy of going all-in in net.

Vegas Storming 1st Round Of Draft

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The Vegas Golden Knights are in an odd position, where they control a strong negotiating position over teams who don’t want to lose valuable roster players. Vegas is under no obligation to comply with any requests, and can essentially extort other teams for maximum return. If Anaheim wants to protect Josh Manson, for example, Vegas will play hardball. They will do so for two reasons: first, the better the player, the more important he will be to a future Knights team, and two, they have no incentive not to take that player for anything less than an optimal return. GM George McPhee is already looking to have a better competitive jump-start than any previous NHL expansion team by a significant margin. And it doesn’t look as though he will opt out of choosing the best available players for anything short of a ransom. Some teams might be desperate enough to do so.

Vegas is already assumed to have three picks, and could easily snag more. They have their own pick at #6, and are believed to have side-deals with Columbus and the New York Islanders in order to acquire the #24 and #15 picks, respectively. Anaheim is definitely in discussions to keep Manson and possibly even Sami Vatanen, who they desperately tried to trade for value before Saturday’s roster freeze. It’s quite conceivable that picks are in play there, but Anaheim no longer has its 2017 first after trading it to Dallas for Patrick Eaves.

Other teams who will be desperate to keep players include Nashville, who would lose James Neal, Chicago, who have exposed Trevor van Riemsdyk, and San Jose, who could lose one of Paul Martin or David Schlemko. If those teams, or any other organization, really want to hang onto particular players, there’s a very real possibility they will need to surrender a top pick.

For historical reference, only one team has ever drafted with 5 first-round picks – the 1974 Montreal Canadiens. The last team who had 4 first-round picks was the 1999 New York Islanders, when they selected Tim Connolly at #5. If Vegas could amass yet another first round pick, or even two, it would put them in an incredibly enviable position headed into the Entry Draft. The importance of flash and showmanship is rarely overlooked in the City of Lights, and the team looks to continue that philosophy by embracing the saga that the expansion draft has become.

Mrazek Exposed Due To “Attitude”

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In one of the more surprising exposures of an action-packed Sunday, Petr Mrazek was left un-shielded by the Red Wings in favor of his senior backup Jimmy Howard. The reason why is even more surprising.

Howard ($5.292 MM) earns more than Mrazek (4.0 MM), and has an extra year on his contract. More shocking is the difference in age – Howard is 33 whereas Mrazek is only 25, still young for a goaltender in development. Howard has started far fewer games the last two seasons, only 24 in 2016-17. He did perform statistically well and rebounded with a .927 save percentage, whilst Mrazek posted a .908. Still, when Mrazek was on the list of those exposed, many assumed Detroit GM Ken Holland had negotiated a side-deal with Vegas to protect the tender. Not the case, apparently.

According to Holland, “I’m not spending any future assets to hang onto players”, which is as cut-and-dry a response as we’ve seen. Ansar Khan of Michigan Live states that the Wings passed on Mrazek in their expansion list due to a combination of “performance and attitude”. He even went so far as to claim that Mrazek is believed by some in the organization to be “too cocky for his own good”. The article even mentions Mrazek’s alleged unhappiness with the inability of Holland to trade Howard after the 2015-16 season.

Mrazek certainly had a better season in 2015-16, and contract negotiations did drag on for quite some time before the parties settled on a two-year deal. Mrazek was one of the most surprising goalies in that year, helping sneak the team in for their 25th consecutive playoff berth behind a mediocre defense. At the age of 23, it looked certain that the era of Howard in Hockeytown was nearing a close. After his pitfalls through 50 starts last season, management obviously decided that risking Mrazek would not hurt the team in a sizable way. If any trades were attempted to deal Mrazek, they were apparently quite unsuccessful.

Regardless of how toxic the relationship between the parties is, these sentiments might scare Vegas off of placing a claim. They certainly have a plethora of other options available around the league to tend net or flip for picks. Detroit certainly won’t be hurting for goaltending now that Jared Coreau has led the Grand Rapids Griffins to an AHL championship and is ready for prime-time. But if off-ice issues truly are a concern, and Vegas doesn’t select Mrazek, Detroit could have a very tense situation on their hands next season.

Islanders’ Perplexing Side-Deal With Vegas

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As I briefly mentioned in a previous article, the New York Islanders decided to travel a very perplexing road with their protection list. They shielded only 3 forwards, and protected 5 defensemen, allowing a whole host of forwards to be claimed.  These include Brock Nelson, Ryan Strome, Casey Cizikas, Nikolai Kulemin, and Josh Bailey at the upper end of the spectrum. Defenseman Calvin de Haan, who has reportedly has had difficulty coming to a deal with management on a new contract, is also left at Vegas’ disposal

What complicates matters is that Arthur Staple of Newsday has been insinuating that the Islanders have a deal in place to protect Nelson, Strome, and de Haan, while others, such as Darren Dreger, believes the deal only applies to forwards.  NHL Numbers stated today that the protection agreement would protect only Bailey and Cizikas, which is easily the most disastrous deal of the group. From a pure value standpoint, Nelson, de Haan and Strome have far more value than either player. Staple believed yesterday evening that the Islanders were going to trade their 15th overall selection in order to push Vegas in a favorable direction. Even still, it doesn’t explain the particulars of the players protected.

John Tavares is an obvious keeper, and Andrew Ladd helped the offense in a big way after a rocky start. Anders Lee is coming off a phenomenal 34 goal season in only his 3rd full outing. The defense revolves around Nick Leddy and Travis Hamonic, and despite his steps backward Johnny Boychuk is a big minute eater for the team. You could have made a case for Ryan Pulock over Boychuk, and made that quite convincingly, but it seemed inevitable that team would lose a defender no matter what. Boychuk did have an NMC, which complicated that matter. Considering that the team was 17th in goals against this past season, that wasn’t exactly a worst-case scenario.

Instead of taking the orthodox 4-4 route and protecting Nelson or Strome as well as Pulock or de Haan, or protecting all but one forward in a 7-3 scheme, the Islanders chose instead to protect a relative no-name in Adam Pelech. Pelech had a solid season, to be sure, but he is a bottom-pairing defenseman and doesn’t project as a difference maker. By opting to leave these players exposed, they take a large aspect of the decision making out of their own hands. GM Garth Snow sacrificed a first round pick and a certain degree of autonomy to protect two forwards, when they could instead have done that on their own. If the end goal was to entice Vegas into selecting Thomas Hickey, they could have done so without the bizarre protection structure. This isn’t even delving into the insanity of surrendering a first-round selection to protect one mid-level player over another.

All in all, the Islanders and GM Garth Snow have stolen the show today for most bewildering decision. Unless the deal with Vegas is far more encompassing than it appears at the moment, they are looking to lose a solid contributor and a 1st-round pick when both could have been avoided.

 

The original article incorrectly linked Dylan Strome.

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