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Free Agent Profile: Paul Stastny

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The height of free agency ended a little less than a month ago and once again veteran center Paul Stastny finds himself without an NHL contract heading into next season. Unlike, most younger players Stastny probably isn’t too concerned about financial security as he has made nearly $85MM during his career (CapFriendly). Stastny has also been here before, having waited until August 23rd to sign last summer with the Carolina Hurricanes. Stastny may find himself unsigned late in the offseason once again but given that he is just a year removed from a 45-point season, there is reason to believe he will find an NHL job next year.

Stastny began his career as a perennial 70-point player on a talented but inconsistent Colorado Avalanche team that could never seem to get over the hump. He remained an important top-six piece as his career progressed, but as injuries started to impact his body, he began to descend into a 50–60-point scorer. By the time he signed a four-year $28MM contract as a free agent with the St. Louis Blues in 2014, he had settled in as a 40–50-point contributor that could post solid faceoff results and contribute in other ways. Stastny put up 40 or more points in each of his three and a half seasons with the Blues and was dealt to the Winnipeg Jets at the trade deadline in 2018.

After a cup of coffee in Winnipeg, Stastny signed with the Vegas Golden Knights in the summer of 2018. He spent two years with the team and failed to meet the expectations that came with his three-year $19.5MM contract. Stastny put up 80 points in 121 games with Vegas, but his production didn’t live up to his $6.5MM cap hit and he was traded back to Winnipeg in the 2020 offseason.

Stastny remained a solid center option in his two seasons in Winnipeg and continued to be a consistent 40-point threat despite being in his mid-30’s. Last summer, Stastny was coming off the aforementioned 45-point season and seemed like a good bet to sign a decent one-year deal, but as the height of free agency came and went, Stastny was left without a dance partner and eventually signed a one-year deal with the Carolina Hurricanes for $1.5MM. The deal was good value, although probably a tad below expectations for Carolina as Stastny centered both the third and fourth line at different points during the season.

At the end of the season, the Hurricanes opted to let Stastny go and that’s where we find the 37-year-old today, unsigned and coming off a season in which he put up nine goals and 13 assists in 73 games while averaging a career-low 11:52 of ice-time per game.

Stastny has had a terrific career up to this point, but he is still chasing that elusive Stanley Cup. He seems to have a knack for leaving organizations just as they are on the cusp of winning Lord Stanley as evidenced by his former clubs Colorado, St. Louis, and Vegas all winning championships shortly after his departure.

Now, the Quebec City, Quebec native is in the twilight of his career and is likely looking to sign with a contender. He showed last year that he could be a solid contributor on the bottom two lines and probably has more to give. Teams aren’t going to be lining up like they once were for Stastny’s services, but with two months left until opening night, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic that he will find a landing spot before the first week in October.

Stats

2022-23: 73 GP, 9-13-22, +4 rating, 16 PIMS, 80 shots, 57.6% faceoffs, 60.9% CF, 11:52 ATOI
Career: 1145 GP, 293-529-822, +43 rating, 500 PIMS, 2326 shots, 54.2% faceoffs, 52.2% CF, 18:27 ATOI

Potential Suitors

It seems that teams are always looking for help at center, which makes Stastny’s status a bit surprising this late in the offseason. While he is hardly the only pivot that is unsigned, he is probably the best of the leftovers. For Stastny, if he does choose to continue his career, he will be looking for a situation where he is a good fit. He never quite found a groove in Carolina, and despite playing on an excellent team, he did seem frustrated at times. He also fell out of favor with the coaching staff for brief periods, evidenced by his benching when the team opted to use Derek Stepan in his spot.

Let’s start in the East. The Buffalo Sabres have several players that are over the age of 35 and while Stastny isn’t going to push the team into the next stratosphere, he could be a nice stopgap for the team as they wait for more of their young prospects to develop into everyday NHLers. The Sabres also need to navigate the injury to Jack Quinn, and while this version of Stastny is no replacement for the youngster, he could be a part of a solution until he returns. Stastny would add a lot of experience and leadership to the Sabres dressing room and could also provide the team with a center who can win most of the draws he takes and will generally help his team control the play when he is on the ice.

In the West, the Edmonton Oilers still need a solid fourth-line center. The club does currently have a few options that they can slot into the lineup in a pinch, but ideally, they would have a pivot that can bring similar skills to that of Stastny. The Oilers don’t need a player that will drive the offense, but they do need capable bottom six players who can play a responsible brand of hockey and dictate play when they are on the ice. Stastny fits the bill having won 57% of his faceoffs last season, and having terrific possession numbers as Carolina controlled the puck 60% of the time Stastny was on the ice. His offense dried up last season, but Edmonton doesn’t need an offensive juggernaut, they need smart bottom six players that can chip in on offense from time to time.

Projected Contract

Many of the remaining unrestricted free agents are likely going be forced to take contracts that are around the league minimum of $775K, however, I don’t believe that will be the fate for Stastny. As mentioned earlier, he waited until the end of August last year and still secured a seven-figure AAV on a one-year deal. This year is different for Stastny though as he is coming off his lowest offensive output in his 17-year career, so a contract approaching what he made last season might be off the table. I would venture a guess that Stastny will get a one-year deal in the range of $1MM to $1.25MM which could also include a small bonus. Several teams have utilized bonuses for players over 35 years of age signing one-year contracts and Stastny could be the next in line to receive it. Regardless of where he winds up, he will likely be able to give the team that acquires him good value on a short-term deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Edmonton Oilers Reach Deal With Ryan McLeod

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Ryan Rishaug of TSN is reporting that the Edmonton Oilers have reached an agreement with restricted free agent center Ryan McLeod. The Oilers and McLeod were set to go to arbitration on August 4th, but have now reached a settlement without the help of an arbitrator. Rishaug is reporting that the deal is a two-year contract worth $2.1MM per season.

Last night, it was reported that the Oilers and McLeod were close to a deal but some recent developments around the league had changed the calculus. It is not yet known what changed today, but the Oilers took care of a big piece of business as they look to sign their final restricted free agents to new deals for the 2023-24 season.

McLeod just finished his third season in the NHL and has established himself as a good depth center who can provide some offense and play up in the lineup if needed. McLeod just finished a year in which he produced 11 goals and 12 assists in 57 games and posted good analytics as well. McLeod will still be a restricted free agent when his contract expires in two seasons and will remain in the driver’s seat if he continues to improve from year to year.

With this deal in place, it gives both sides certainty and security. For the Oilers it allows them to have a better understanding of the cap space they have available while they negotiate with defenseman Evan Bouchard. For McLeod, he gets to cash in on his first contract in the seven figures and gets the added security of having next year’s money guaranteed.

Oilers Notes: McLeod, Centers, Bouchard

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Kurt Leavins of The Edmonton Journal writes that he has been hearing that the Edmonton Oilers and restricted free-agent center Ryan McLeod were closing in on a new contract, but that the goalposts might have moved. What exactly that means is unclear and Leavins doesn’t speculate in the article, however, according to Robert Tychkowski of the Edmonton Sun, the Oilers have been trying to sign McLeod to a contract with a cap hit of around $2MM and with the arbitration ruling for Philipp Kurashev, they might be looking at a higher number. Kurashev received $2.25MM in his arbitration ruling and given McLeod’s track record he has a good case for a number north of that.

Couple that piece of information with the news that Leavins believes that the Oilers could be looking to bring in some centers on PTOs before training camp and it is a development that isn’t overly encouraging for Oilers fans. However, it doesn’t change the fact that McLeod and the Oilers are set to go to arbitration on August 4th and there are no guarantees of a higher salary for McLeod. He will be pencilled into the lineup once that ruling comes down, meaning there isn’t a threat of him not being signed.

McLeod hasn’t exactly set the world on fire in his first three seasons in the league, but this past season was his best thus far as he posted 11 goals and 12 assists in 57 games while posting a Corsi For % of 53.8%, meaning that the Oilers were controlling the puck more than half the time McLeod was on the ice. The 23-year-old has improved in every season since he started in the NHL and could be just scratching the surface of what he can be.

In other Oilers notes:

  • As mentioned above Leavins believes the Oilers are looking at improving their center depth, and while bringing in centers on a PTO is an option, Leavins also thinks that Edmonton will look at a possible in-season trade as another solution. The Oilers won’t have a ton of cap space (if any) after they sign their remaining restricted free agents, which is likely why Leavins mentions Jake Evans of the Montreal Canadiens and Nic Dowd of the Washington Capitals as possible targets. Dowd has two years left on his current deal at $1.3MM while Evans also has two years remaining and is owed $1.7MM in each of the next two years.
  • Robert Tychkowski of the Edmonton Sun writes that he believes the Oilers have dodged a bullet and he doesn’t expect an offer sheet to come this late in the off-season for restricted free-agent defenseman Evan Bouchard. That’s good news for Oilers fans, but it also isn’t all that surprising given the rarity in which offer sheets are utilized. Leavins wrote today that he believes the Oilers and Bouchard are close to a deal but doesn’t give any details. Given the Oilers tight cap situation it does seem highly likely that they will sign a bridge deal with their budding defenseman which could open the door for him to sign a very lucrative extension soon should he continue to quarterback the league’s best power play. Bouchard had eight goals and 32 assists this past season in 82 games, but just 13 of his 40 regular season points came with the man advantage. In the playoffs, it was a different story as Bouchard had four goals and 11 assists on the power play in just 12 playoff games.

Free Agent Profile: Martin Jones

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Martin Jones career arc as a professional hockey player has been interesting to follow. He emerged in 2013-14 with the Los Angeles Kings as a solid backup to star goaltender Jonathan Quick going 16-11-2 over two seasons with a .923 save percentage and a 1.99 goals-against average. He was then traded to the Boston Bruins in June 2015 as part of a package for Milan Lucic before then being shipped back West to the San Jose Sharks for a first-round pick.

It was in San Jose in 2015-16 that Jones established himself as a bonafide starting goaltender and led the Sharks to within two wins of the Stanley Cup. Jones was terrific through his first three seasons in San Jose compiling a record of 102-68-16 while consistently posting a save percentage around .915. He was also a workhorse during his first four seasons dressing in over 60 games each year. In July 2017, San Jose felt so confident that Jones was their goalie of the future that they locked him up to a lucrative six-year deal worth a total of $34.5MM

But the Sharks’ confidence in the North Vancouver, British Columbia native quickly waned as Jones posted three consecutive years with a save percentage below .900. Realizing that his play was dropping off, the Sharks bought Jones out of the final three years of his contract in July 2021, a move that left them with a cap hit of almost $2MM annually until 2026-27. After Jones was unceremoniously bought out of his contract, he signed a one-year $2MM deal with the Philadelphia Flyers and posted numbers that mirrored his final three seasons in San Jose going 12-18-3 with a .900 save percentage and a 3.42 goals-against.

Last summer, after all the initial excitement of free agency had cleared, Jones signed a one-year contract with the Seattle Kraken in a move that was largely without any fanfare. The deal seemed like a good match as the Kraken viewed Jones as a good third option behind Philipp Grubauer and Chris Driedger, and Jones was looking for an opportunity to rebuild his stock in free agency.

It wasn’t long before Jones had de-throned Driedger as the Kraken’s backup to Grubauer and for stretches of the season Jones looked to be on the cusp of taking over the starter’s role. His win-loss record was terrific as Jones went 27-13-3 in 48 games, however, his save-percentage remained low at .886.  As the playoffs began, Jones lost the Kraken net and was an afterthought once Grubauer regained the starting role and took the team to their first-ever playoff victory over the Colorado Avalanche. If you look closer at the numbers though, you will see that Jones started the season on fire, with 10 of his first 15 starts coming in as quality starts. But as the season wore on, Jones faded and was possibly overworked into exhaustion, which might explain his drop-in play later in the year.

Now, at 33 years old Jones is at a bit of a crossroads in his career. He was once an above-average starter on the cusp of being elite, but he hasn’t been in that realm for several years. It’s possible he may still view himself as a starter or a solid backup, however, the numbers don’t lie and they show that at this point in his career Jones is a below-average option in net. Which might explain why he is still unsigned this deep into the offseason.

Stats

2022-23: 48 GP, 27-13-3, 2.99 GAA, .886 SV%, 3 SO
Career: 444 GP, 225-163-35, 2.71 GAA, .905 SV%, 28 SO

Potential Suitors

Over the last decade or so it seems more common that teams have relied on more than two goalies to get to the Stanley Cup. The Penguins did it in 2016 and probably wished they had three goaltenders in 2022 when they lost starter Tristan Jarry and backup Casey DeSmith to injury. The Vegas Golden Knights did it this year as well as they relied on Adin Hill to lead them to their first Stanley Cup after losing multiple goalies to injury throughout the year. That is the puzzling piece with Jones, he could be a terrific third option on a team that is desperate for goaltending depth, as proven by his presence in Seattle last season. One might wonder if Jones thought he could get more money early on and perhaps priced himself out of a deal in the early days of free agency. Alex Nedeljkovic took a one-year deal for $1.5MM in Pittsburgh to be their third-stringer and I’d be curious to see if Martin Jones had any similar offers in early July.

Whether or not Jones has had any offers is moot at this point, he remains unsigned and while a lot of teams like Pittsburgh addressed their goaltending depth, some teams could still use some help.

We’ll start in the West with the Vancouver Canucks. Jones is from North Vancouver, and when a player comes up for free agency there is always speculation about a return home. In the case of Jones to the Canucks, a return would make a lot of sense. The Canucks received a lot of very poor goaltending last season when starter Thatcher Demko went down to an injury. And while Spencer Martin tried valiantly to fill the void left by Demko, he just isn’t skilled enough to be relied upon as a regular NHL backup. However, the Canucks currently have Martin pencilled in to be the backup to Demko, and that probably isn’t going to be good enough for a team that aspires of making the playoffs once again. The Canucks have had a tumultuous couple of seasons, particularly last season, and could use some more stability in what is arguably the most important position.

Over in the East, a team that could use some depth in the crease is the New Jersey Devils. The Devils have been rumored to be interested in several goaltending options including John Gibson and Connor Hellebuyck, but both of those goaltenders would represent a huge commitment financially and would require a lot of trade assets. The Devils do need some type of improvement in the crease, be it from outside help or internal improvement. The Devils relied on the tandem of Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid last season, and while they were good enough to get the Devils to the second round of the playoffs, neither goalie has a history of playing at a high level in the NHL. Vanecek has been a league-average netminder for his three seasons in the NHL while Schmid was terrific in his first season in the league but played just 18 games. Jones would provide the Devils with a veteran presence that could push the Devils’ two young goalies for playing time while providing leadership, guidance and most importantly, depth. Jones isn’t going to turn into a Vezina candidate overnight, but he also won’t cost the Devils any assets and would come cheap.

Projected Contract

Like many of the remaining unrestricted free agents, Jones is likely going to take a significant pay cut for the upcoming season. Jones made $2MM with the Kraken last season and would be lucky to fetch a one-year deal for half of that at this point in the offseason. Whatever team signs Jones will likely see him as a depth option who can start for an extended period should one of their top goaltenders go down to an injury. While there is value in that, the flat cap world has left many of the players like Jones scratching and clawing to stay in the league. Career tweener goaltenders such as Louie Domingue have managed to find guaranteed salaries at league minimum in recent years and one would have to think that Jones will end up with a similar fate.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Josh Ho-Sang Contemplating Retirement

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According to a report in Sport Express, former New York Islanders forward Josh Ho-Sang is reportedly considering retirement and has informed his KHL club, Ufa Salavat Yulaev, that he is still talking to his family about a decision. Ho-Sang was a first-round pick of the Islanders in 2014 and was never able to establish himself as an NHL regular despite possessing a ton of offensive talent.

Ho-Sang signed in the KHL last year with Ufa and in his first game against SKA in September he had an assist. Unfortunately, in that same game, he was injured and missed the remainder of the regular season. He underwent surgery and returned to play in four playoff games, where he went scoreless.

The injury itself isn’t the issue holding up Ho-Sang’s return as according to David Alter of The Hockey News it is possible that Ho-Sang could return to the KHL, but if he were to do this, he would need to become a Russian citizen. While he hasn’t ruled this out, the Thornhill, Ontario native hasn’t said that he has an interest in doing this, which is likely the issue being discussed with his family at the moment.

According to Alter, Ufa Salavat Yulaev has prepared the paperwork for Ho-Sang to become a citizen, should he decide to return to the team this season.

Ho-Sang lasted played in North America with the Toronto Marlies in 2021-22. During his time in the AHL with Toronto, he posted 16 goals and 19 assists in 47 games.

Examining Maple Leafs Bargain Bin Free Agent Targets

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Joshua Kloke of The Athletic wrote an article today highlighting seven bargain bin free agent targets that could help the Toronto Maple Leafs next season. The Maple Leafs currently sit about $2MM over the salary cap despite putting Jake Muzzin and Matt Murray on LTIR for next year, making it difficult to imagine Toronto doing much shopping in free agency unless they sign two-way deals or move out a contract. The names on the list were interesting, and certainly, they reflect the Maple Leafs’ salary cap predicament.

The most interesting name on Kloke’s list was three-time Stanley Cup champion Jonathan Toews. Much speculation has been made this off-season about the future of Toews as he has battled health issues the past few seasons and may be leaning towards retirement. Toews was effective last year, albeit in limited action as he dressed in just 53 games and put up 15 goals and 16 assists. The former captain of the Chicago Blackhawks doesn’t have much to play for at this point, but if he were to choose the Maple Leafs as a destination, he could slide into a similar role that Jason Spezza and Joe Thornton had when they arrived in Toronto a few years ago. Toews could be a very effective fourth-line center for Toronto even at this point in his career, but one must wonder if wants to.

Zach Aston-Reese was another name on the list and is coming off a season in which he scored a career-high 10 goals with Toronto. By all accounts, Aston-Reese was well-liked in Toronto and was effective for them in a fourth-line role. We profiled the Staten Island, New York native just days ago in our Free Agent Profile series and highlighted that the 28-year-old has some of the best defensive analytics in the league but offers very little offensively.

Another name on the list was a young reclamation project and that is 25-year-old Jesse Puljujarvi. The right-winger is coming off a very disappointing season in which he scored just five goals and was dumped by the Edmonton Oilers in a cap-cutting move last year. Puljujarvi has been a disappointment in his young career after getting drafted fourth overall in 2016. He has just 51 goals and 63 assists in 334 NHL games but is just a year removed from a 36-point season in 2021-22. The Maple Leafs would probably be a good landing spot for Puljujarvi as he could play in more of a sheltered role in Toronto and wouldn’t be relied upon to provide much offence. On the flip side of that, he struggled to play with skilled players like Connor McDavid, which leads to speculation about whether he’d be able to play with any of Toronto’s skilled forwards.

The most realistic target for the Maple Leafs on the list was center Derick Brassard. Brassard entered last season on a professional tryout with the Ottawa Senators and put up decent numbers in limited playing time. The 35-year-old had 13 goals and 10 assists in 62 games while averaging just 12 minutes of ice time per game. It’s possible that Brassard might also elect to retire, but he did express a desire to keep playing at the end of last year. He also enjoyed playing closer to home having grown up in Hull, Quebec, which is just across the river from Ottawa. Should Brassard want to stay close to family, Toronto would make sense. From the Maple Leafs’ perspective, there is no harm in bringing in a veteran like Brassard on a one-year deal for the league minimum. He would give them a scoring option in the bottom six who can fill in at center, and they could bury his contract in the minors without penalty should things not work out.

The other names on Kloke’s list were defensemen Ethan Bear and Scott Harrington, as well as forward Sam Gagner. Harrington is a former Maple Leaf and could offer some depth on the backend, while Bear is expected to miss a significant chunk of the year and would be a mid-season addition. Gagner could offer the Leafs some depth scoring on the fourth line and is close with John Taveres from their days playing in London. Perhaps a return home could be possible for the 33-year-old Gagner.

Free Agent Profile: Caleb Jones

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It’s hard to believe it, but the NHL season starts in just over two months. For some NHLers they will soon be making plans to return to their respective cities to begin the upcoming season, for others like defenseman Caleb Jones, his plan is to try to find an NHL job in the next nine weeks.

It was surprising to see Jones go unqualified, as the Chicago Blackhawks elected to let him become a free agent rather than offer him a qualifying offer. Chicago needed to tender the 26-year-old at $1.35MM, but he was made a free agent when Chicago didn’t make the offer. Now, almost a month into free agency Jones remains unsigned, a somewhat surprising development for a player who has shown promise in his young career.

Jones, the younger brother of Blackhawks defenseman Seth Jones, was originally drafted by the Edmonton Oilers in the fourth round back in 2015 and played 93 games over parts of three seasons with the club before he was traded to Chicago in July 2021 as part of the Duncan Keith trade. Jones then dressed in 124 games over the past two years with the Blackhawks, putting up 9 goals and 22 assists.

Last year was a career year for Jones, as he had four goals and 12 assists in 73 games while playing over 19 minutes a night. Jones was tasked with playing second-pairing minutes on a very bad Chicago team and faired well despite not contributing much offensively. Jones led the defense core in many analytical categories and did a decent job controlling the play when he was on the ice.

Jones has typically demonstrated a good ability to move the puck well, utilizing his skating to push the puck up the ice and can keep himself mobile in the defensive zone to be a disruptive force on both the penalty kill and at even strength. However, he is not his older brother and doesn’t possess nearly the offensive acumen that Seth has displayed throughout his career.

The issue that Jones may face when trying to lock down an NHL job is that there is a bit of a surplus of left-shot depth defensemen in the NHL. Pittsburgh has Ty Smith and Pierre-Olivier Joseph competing for one spot on their third pairing, as do the Calgary Flames, with Oliver Kylington now returning after a one-year absence. The Ottawa Senators have several solid left-shot options throughout their NHL lineup, as do many other teams. For Jones, he could offer a solid third-pairing option, but there are very few teams who need that right now.

Stats

2022-23: 73 GP, 4-14-16, -19 rating, 40 PIMS, 86 shots, 48.9% CF, 19:13 ATOI
Career: 217 GP, 14-36-50, -39 rating, 80 PIMS, 225 shots, 48.1% CF, 16:49 ATOI

Potential Suitors

Jones would have teams lining up for his services if he was a right-shot defenseman, but he shoots left and typically plays the left side. While his market will be small, there are sure to be teams that could find a role for the younger Jones brother.

In the East, the Buffalo Sabres have Ilya Lyubushkin slated to play as a third bottom-pair left-side defenseman, and while he offers a physical element and does a good job suppressing scoring chances, he is not a good puck mover and isn’t particularly adept at much else. Jones could push Lyubushkin and create healthy competition for playing time in the Sabres defense core. The one barrier for Jones to Buffalo could be that the Sabres have already brought in Erik Johnson and Connor Clifton in free agency, and management may feel that they’ve already brought in enough competition on their back end.

In the West, The Anaheim Ducks have brought in a few NHL veterans to try and give guidance to their young stars. While Radko Gudas will bring some leadership and physicality on the back end, the Ducks could use a few more veterans who can teach their young players to become good pros. Jones could be a solid fit for the role as he has already played on a young, bad, rebuilding team and knows the challenges and tribulations that come with the growing pains of a rebuild.

Sticking with the West, another rebuilding club that could use some help on the backend is the San Jose Sharks. The Sharks aren’t pushing to make the playoffs this year, but that doesn’t mean they should stop looking for improvements. At the moment, the Sharks have 30-year-old journeyman Jacob MacDonald penciled in as their third pairing left side defenseman and Marc-Édouard Vlasic on their second pair. Vlasic was a terrific shutdown defender for a long time, but he has seen notable declines in his game for the past five years or so. Jones would likely offer an upgrade on both men while not costing San Jose much in the way of assets.

Projected Contract

Unfortunately for Jones, he is most likely going to be taking a pay cut from the $1.35MM he made last season. There should be a small market for his services as the season nears, but the native of Arlington, Texas, might have to sign a professional try-out to get teams interested in his services. Matt Dumba and Ethan Bear are both still unrestricted and might attract more interest as they are right-shot defensemen and have better track records. Jones should ultimately be able to find an NHL deal, but when he does, it will likely come in around the league minimum or a tick above it. There were many NHL defensemen who found deals late in the summer last year, and it seems that could happen again this summer with Jones.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Philadelphia Flyers Submit Ivan Fedotov’s Contract Should Be Tolled

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TSN hockey insider Darren Dreger is reporting that the Philadelphia Flyers and the NHL have submitted to the International Ice Hockey Federation that goaltender Ivan Fedotov’s contract with the Flyers should be tolled since he missed this past season to complete military service in Russia. The Flyers along with the league are arguing that because he missed the entire season, the original one-year contract he signed in May 2022 should not be considered expired until next July, since he never fulfilled the agreement. The IIHF is presently considering the submission. The word tolled is a legal term written into many sports contracts that allows for the pausing or delaying of the running of the period of time set forth by a contract.

It’s been quite the saga for the 26-year-old netminder that began over a year ago. Fedotov was arrested in Russia two months after signing his contract with the Flyers. He served a year of military service and on June 14th of this year, the Flyers announced that the one-year deal would be applied this upcoming season and they would retain his NHL rights. Shortly after that in early July, the KHL announced a two-year deal for the netminder with CSKA that was recognized by the league because they believed that Fedotov did not have a valid and binding contract with an NHL club for next year.

While Fedotov is stuck between two leagues wondering what his future will be, CAA Sports’ JP Barry issued a statement today saying that he had spoken with Fedotov and that the young netminder would abide by the IIHF’s ruling that will decide which of the two contracts is valid. It’s an unusual and difficult situation for a player that has said that he just wants to get back to playing hockey. Fedotov has stated publicly that he was able to play hockey twice a week during his military service, but that the hockey in the army wasn’t very good. Fedotov has also defended his decision to sign was CSKA saying that they are a top club and would give him an opportunity to return to form before fulfilling his dream of playing in the NHL.

From the Flyers’ perspective, they would obviously welcome the addition of Fedotov to their goaltending depth chart. The club made Fedotov their seventh-round pick back in 2015, and while it has been almost a decade since they drafted him, they’d seen enough from him to warrant an entry-level contract last year. Now, the Flyers and the league are in a battle that could set a precedent going forward since the KHL and NHL don’t currently have any kind of Memorandum of Understanding. The two leagues did have such an agreement up until last year which kept teams from poaching signed players out of the other league, however, the NHL suspended the agreement.

Arbitration Breakdown: Jeremy Swayman

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Today, The Boston Bruins and goaltender Jeremy Swayman filed their arbitration numbers, and according to Sportnet’s Elliotte Friedman, Boston has filed at $2MM for one year, while Swayman has asked for $4.8MM. The 24-year-old netminder and the Bruins have until Sunday to work out a deal before they will go to arbitration.

Swayman’s number is sure to shock some people, but that is typically how this process works. The team files a lowball number, and the player files high. The arbitrator’s decision typically falls somewhere in the middle, as was the case with the Toronto Maple Leafs and netminder Ilya Samsonov.

Swayman is coming off the best season of his career and does have considerable leverage in these negotiations. The Anchorage, Alaska native posted a 24-6-4 record this past year with a .920 save percentage and a 2.27 goals-against average. His save percentage was good enough for fourth in the league trailing only Filip Gustavsson, Ilya Sorokin, and Swayman’s partner Linus Ullmark. Speaking of Ullmark, his presence complicates the situation with Swayman because he is coming off a career year as well, one in which he won the Vezina Trophy as the league’s top goaltender. Ullmark also has two years left on his contract and is unlikely to be moved this late in the summer.

The Bruins do have a bit of cap space to sign Swayman, however, they will want to keep the cap hit as low as possible since they have other pressing needs throughout their lineup from free agency departures and the retirement of Patrice Bergeron. The Bruins have a hair under $5.5MM in cap space and could be presented with some major challenges if the arbitrator rules a salary that is close to Swayman’s filing.

For Swayman, he will be looking to cash in on what has been a terrific career thus far. He just completed the three-year-contract entry-level contract that paid him $925K this past season, and while his filing is on the high side, he will likely triple or quadruple his salary this upcoming season.

A lot of teams will take a player to arbitration in the hopes of laying the groundwork for future salary cap management. However, in this case, Boston is just trying to stay cap compliant and keep as much of their team intact as they can.

Filings

Team: $2MM (one-year)
Player: $4.8MM (one-year)
Midpoint: $3.4MM

(via Friedman)

The Numbers

As mentioned above, 2022-23 saw Swayman have a career year, and while he was phenomenal when he did play, his sample size is still quite small. Swayman has never played in more than 41 games and hasn’t had to carry the workload in Boston since he’s always had the benefit of playing behind a bonafide number-one goaltender. There is a good argument to be made that it isn’t any fault of Swayman’s, and he can only play the games he plays. However, he is asking for starting goaltender money, and up to this point, he hasn’t been a starter. You can look to other teams like the Pittsburgh Penguins, who had star backups in Matt Murray and Tristan Jarry, but both of those netminders struggled with injuries and inconsistency once they were appointed as starters.

For Swayman, this season wasn’t all that far off from last season. His save percentage was slightly better, and he lost fewer games. However, he also played behind a far superior team than he did in previous seasons. That is also something that critics will point to, Swayman plays behind one of the best teams in the league, and again, that isn’t his fault. But it could be a knock the Bruins use in the ugly process that is arbitration.

From Swayman’s perspective, despite being mostly a backup, he can point to the fact that he’s taken over the net in consecutive postseasons from Ullmark. While that isn’t proof of anything, it does give his arbitration case credibility and showcase that the Bruins view the youngster as an NHL starter.

Swayman is also not a one-year wonder and can point to a few seasons of sustained success at the NHL level. Since he made his NHL debut in 2020-21, he has posted an impressive nine shutouts in 82 starts and is second in the NHL in goals-against average with a 2.40, and he also ranks fifth in save percentage with a .920 career save percentage. Some people might point to those numbers and say Swayman is the benefactor or a good team in front of him, and that is fair. However, if you take a deep dive into his numbers, you will find that over the course of his career, he has posted a ridiculous 33.8 goals saved above expected.

It will be interesting to see how the Bruins value Swayman. Do they see him as a long-term starting netminder, or is their view that he is a strong backup? You have to wonder if the Bruins had more cap space this summer if they wouldn’t try and lock him into a long-term deal at a reasonable cap hit. But that isn’t the world Boston is living in, and unfortunately for them, they are up against the cap and up against a player who has been terrific for them for quite some time.

This is a tough case to pin down due to the volatility of the goaltending position. However, given that the Maple Leafs and Samsonov just went through this process, it seems likely that the arbitrator will rule somewhere close to the middle of the two sides’ filings.

2022-23 Stats: 37GP 24W 6L 4T/O .920SV% 2.27GAA 4SO

Career Stats: 88GP 54W 23L 7T/0 .920SV% 2.24GAA 9SO

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency, which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of this negotiation. 

Ilya Samsonov (Maple Leafs) – Samsonov was just awarded a one-year deal for $3.55MM and is the obvious comparison for Swayman. However, it may serve as a “low-end” comparable for what his awarded contract could look like. Swayman is two years younger than Samsonov, and although he has a shorter track record, Swayman’s career numbers are vastly superior. However, if you look at just this past season in a vacuum, their numbers are quite similar. They sport an almost identical save percentage with a .01 difference, Swayman’s goals-against was .06 percent better and Samsonov dressed in five more games. A key point is the perception of the two goaltenders at the end of the year is different, despite coming to similar finales. Samsonov is widely viewed as Toronto’s starter heading into next year, while Swayman is firmly viewed as the Bruins’ backup. This perception could be a difference-maker in the eyes of an arbitrator. But, if they look strictly at the numbers, one will think that Swayman could be staring down a higher salary next year.

Tristan Jarry (Pittsburgh Penguins) – This comparison is a bit older, but it still applies to Swayman’s situation, given the flat-cap world we are living in. Jarry signed a three-year, $3.5MM AAV pact with the Penguins after his 2020-21 season, a year where he went 20-12-1 while posting a .921 save percentage and a 2.43 goals-against average while being named to the all-star game. Unlike Swayman, Jarry ended that campaign firmly viewed as the Penguins goaltender of the future after Matt Murray faltered in the playoffs once again. Pittsburgh knew that Jarry was their goaltender of the future and locked him up to a bridge deal. To that point in his career, Jarry had played just 62 games and had gone 34-20-4. Despite the lack of playing time, the then 26-year-old was viewed as a bonafide starter, something that Swayman might have to wait to be labeled.

Projection

Swayman has been terrific thus far in his career, however, his numbers are not strong enough to justify his $4.8MM AAV ask. However, he’s aiming high, and he has an excellent case to top Samsonov’s $3.55MM contract and Jarry’s $3.5AAV from 2020. I would have to guess that Swayman will be awarded something in the $3.55MM – $3.75MM range.

If Swayman can post numbers similar to what he has done thus far in his career, one would have to think that Boston will push to trade Ullmark next season and finally anoint Swayman as their number-one goalie. Swayman has probably earned a bridge deal at this point but given that he plays on a team as good as the Bruins, there is only so much money to go around. He will have to wait to get his security, but for now, he should get a nice pay bump next season.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Buffalo Sabres Sign Zach Benson To ELC

at CDT | by 1 Comment

The Buffalo Sabres announced today that they’ve signed their 2023 first-round pick Zach Benson to an entry-level three-year contract. Benson was the Sabres’ top selection at 13th overall in last month’s NHL Entry Draft and was seen by some scouts as one of the top playmakers in the entire draft. Benson’s ELC will pay him an NHL salary of $855K to go along with a $95K signing bonus. He will carry an annual cap hit of $950K at the NHL level, and should he play in the minors, he would receive a salary of $82,500.

The 18-year-old forward dressed in 60 games this past season with the Winnipeg ICE of the WHL posting 36 goals and 62 assists while finishing the season +68. The native of Chilliwack, British Columbia, set career highs in every offensive category and finished third in scoring with 98 points. Benson had incredible chemistry with another Sabres prospect, Matt Savoie, who was drafted by Buffalo with the number nine pick just one year ago. Savoie and Benson led the ICE this past season, posting a combined 193 points while leading both the power-play and penalty-kill units.

Benson turned a lot of heads at the Sabres development camp just three weeks ago, and in an article from The Athletic’s Matthew Fairburn, he wondered if Benson was already the Sabres’ top prospect. There were some scouts who were surprised to see him slip to the 13th pick, and Fairburn wondered if he is a star in the making for Buffalo.

While scouts were always impressed with Benson’s puck skills, there was always the underlying concern about his size. Benson stands just 5-foot-10 and weighs around 170 pounds, so it is possible that his puck skills might be impeded when he eventually plays against bigger and stronger players. However, Benson has plenty of time to fill out his frame and should be able to develop more strength on the puck over time.

Benson’s entry-level deal was always something that was going to happen, and now his attention will turn to cracking the Sabres NHL lineup. It’s something that could happen sooner than later if he continues to develop the way he has recently.

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