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Negotiation Notes: No. 2 Pick, Nelson, Simon

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The Carolina Hurricanes and newly promoted GM Don Waddell are listening to offers on the second overall pick in the NHL Draft, but don’t expect them to make a move. Waddell spoke with the media at the NHL Draft Combine with week and said that if teams “want to present something to us, we’ll look at it” but, quickly added that “it’s going to be hard for us to move that pick.” After moving up nine spots in the draft lottery to #2, the Hurricanes are looking to make the most of their good luck. Although Carolina’s biggest need is a star center – something that isn’t available in this draft – they can still land a generational talent up front. Waddell stated that forwards Andrei Svechnikov, Filip Zadina, and Brady Tkachuk are the most likely candidates, but there could also be a possibility that Jesperi Kotkaniemi could slide into the spot, as the Finnish center has reportedly been flying up draft boards. Waddell did say that he was impressed with several of the top defensemen in this class, but feels the Hurricanes are well-stocked on the blue line. That is an understatement for what is one of the deepest and most talented groups in the league with promising prospects still on the way. Forward is the big need and the ’Canes seemed prime to make the pick, but Waddell will listen if another team is ready to blow him away with an offer or present him with an intriguing reason to move back in the first round.

  • Entering a crucial off-season, New York Islanders forward Brock Nelson has decided to move on from his current representation, according to The Athletic’s Arthur Staple. Nelson has hired Ben Hankinson of Octagon Sports to handle his negotiations this summer as he enters restricted free agency. As Staple points out, Nelson’s last foray as an RFA did not go smoothly. Former agent Ron Salcer struggled in his dealings with the Islanders and talks grew contentious over the 2015 off-season. Nelson ended up finally re-signing with the Isles on the eve of training camp. Although Nelson has the benefit of arbitration rights this time around, he would still prefer a more civil negotiation with New York and new addition Lou Lamoriello in his new pursuit of an extension.
  • Contrary to an erroneous report, the agent for young Pittsburgh Penguins forward Dominik Simon says that his client has no immediate interest in leaving North America. Agent Allan Walsh dismissed rumors that Simon could join Lokomotiv Yaroslavl of the KHL if the Penguins did not offer the part-time winger a one-way contract extension, reports Jonathan Bombulie of the Tribune-Review. Walsh states that Simon is focused only on playing in Pittsburgh in the future and that any talk with foreign teams would be originating from the teams themselves and not the player side. Simon is an RFA this summer and at 23 scored twelve points in 33 games as a rookie and impressed at the AHL level as well. It would be no surprise to see him land a one-way contract, but Walsh makes it sound as if that won’t make a difference in where he plays next season.

Nikita Kucherov Not Likely To Get Extension Immediately

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The Tampa Bay Lightning’s season is over and now the team must shift its focus for next season. And while the Lightning have a t0-do list for the upcoming season, don’t expect Nikita Kucherov’s extension to be among the top priorities for the team, writes The Athletic’s Joe Smith (subscription required).

Kucherov is in the last year of the bridge deal he signed in 2016 as a restricted free agent and will receive $4.77MM next year before reaching restricted free agency once again. The difference in the next negotiations is that the 24-year-old forward will have arbitration rights, giving him the leverage to potentially double his salary. An arbitrator could very likely side with a player who just put up 39 goals and tallied 100 points this season and reached the all-star game for the second time in his career.

However, Kucherov’s agent Dan Milstein says there haven’t been any talks of a new extension and he doesn’t expect any to start until after the 2018-19 season starts. After all, Kucherov isn’t going anywhere. Even with arbitration rights, Kucherov will be staying in Tampa Bay, but the Lightning will spend as much time as it can evaluating the play of Kucherov.

“He wants to stay in Tampa — he doesn’t want to go anywhere,” Milstein told The Athletic. “Worst-case, it’s arbitration, they’re not going to lose him. Both sides want him to be in Tampa.”

One possible reason is the way Kucherov struggled in the playoffs, especially in the final series before the Lightning were eliminated by the Washington Capitals in the Eastern Conference Finals. The lack of scoring from Kucherov and linemate Steven Stamkos were a major issue. While he put up solid 2018 playoff numbers (17 points in 17 games), most of those offensive numbers came in their first-round series against the New Jersey Devils as he scored five goals and five assists in five games. However, from that point on Kucherov struggled, managing just two goals in the next 12 games. He also admitted that he was not dealing with an injury in the playoffs.

“Definitely you want to score goals,” Kucherov said. “Sometimes, it just doesn’t happen, doesn’t go your way.”

Perhaps the lack of an extension will be a motivating factor for Kucherov. He is expected to take a 10-day trip to Russia (half the length of last year) before returning to Tampa Bay to begin training for next season.

Blues Notes: Allen, Edmundson, Trade Targets, Fabbri

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While fans would like to see the St. Louis Blues move on from starting goaltender Jake Allen, that’s not likely to happen, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Jeff Gordon in a reader chat. The main reason Allen isn’t going anywhere is that there are no better goaltenders available in free agency and via trade this offseason. The team’s best bet is to make sure they lock up backup Carter Hutton and use that combination for one more season.

Allen’s play has declined after a strong start. In fact, his numbers have steadily declined over the last four years, putting up a 2.28 GAA in 2014-15, followed with a 2.35 GAA in 2015-16, a 2.42 GAA in 2016-17 and a 2.75 GAA this season. Gordon also points out that the answer to the team’s goalie issues is more likely to arrive in 2019-20 when Ville Husso arrives as he is most likely going to stay in the AHL for one more season developing his skills and serving as a third-string goaltender for the Blues. Husso had a 2.42 GAA and a .922 save percentage in 38 games with the San Antonio Rampage.

  • Gordon also says that general manager Doug Armstrong said that defenseman Joel Edmundson shouldn’t expect a big payday this offseason. The 24-year-old will be a restricted free agent this year, but the team is unlikely to give Edmudson a long-term offer at this point and might have to fight for a quality contract through arbitration this year. Edmundson, who made $1.05MM this season should get a raise, but the team has already handed out sizeable deals to Alex Pietrangelo (two years remaining at $6.5MM) and Colton Parayko (four years left at $5.5MM) and still must pay veteran Jay Bouwmeester one more year at $5.4MM. One year from now, however, the team could lock Edmundson up. He keeps improving, putting up a career high seven goals this year.
  • Gordon writes that Armstrong has said he wants to add a top-six forward, preferably a center to the team this offseason. With the free-agent market heavy in wingers, the Blues might have to consider a trade, suggesting the team should attempt to pry Ryan Nugent-Hopkins from Edmonton or Ryan O’Reilly from Buffalo. While the Oilers have stated they will not move Nugent-Hopkins, O’Reilly might be a different story in Buffalo.
  • While Gordon writes that there is no news on prospect Robby Fabbri, who missed the season after tearing his ACL twice in the same knee, there is plenty of concern. Because of his injuries, there is plenty of concern of whether he will ever turn out to be the prospect they hoped he would be.

Extension Perception: William Karlsson & Shooting Percentages

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The Vegas Golden Knights have been an incredible story for the better part of a year. On March 6th, 2017 the team signed Reid Duke, the first player under contract with the expansion franchise and a symbol for what would transpire in the upcoming months. Duke had been a top pick by the Lethbridge Hurricanes of the WHL, fifth overall in the 2011 bantam draft. He came in with huge expectations for the junior club, only to underwhelm through his first few seasons. He was good, but not great, in those first two years with Lethbridge and fell to the sixth round in the NHL draft.

"<strongMinnesota was the team who finally took a chance on him, selecting him 169th overall. That year in junior he would be traded to the Brandon Wheat Kings, where he would again play well, but never come to an agreement on a professional contract with the Wild. Instead, he would head back to junior as an overage free agent, now adrift from the only NHL organization he’d ever been a part of. That feeling is one known by the rest of the Golden Knights squad, after they were left exposed in the expansion draft or sent to Vegas in order to protect a more valuable player.

William Karlsson may be the best example. The Columbus Blue Jackets needed to protect some of their other, more prized players—specifically Josh Anderson, who was left technically unprotected—and ended up trading first and second round picks (and the contract of David Clarkson) to do so. As GM Jarmo Kekalainen said at the time, they did it to “try to keep the core of our team intact.” Karlsson, a good player who had scored 20 and 25 points in his first two NHL seasons was selected by Vegas instead.

If you’ve been following the NHL at all this season, it’s obvious that Karlsson had more to give. He currently ranks only behind Alex Ovechkin in goals with 27, only one fewer than he had scored in his entire North American professional career (NHL and AHL combined) before this season. He sits second on the Golden Knights in points behind only Jonathan Marchessault, eight points ahead of the team’s All-Star forward James Neal.

He also is a restricted free agent this summer.

The Golden Knights have already anointed Marchessault as part of the core moving forward, signing him to a six-year $30MM contract extension at the beginning of the month. The Florida Panthers cast-off is the most dangerous forward on the ice more often than not, and is proving that his 30-goal season in 2016-17 was no fluke. For Karlsson, that question still exists.

There was never an expectation that Karlsson would turn into a potential 40-goal scorer, not even when he was selected 53rd overall by the Anaheim Ducks in 2011. He’d never shown skill like that before, and though if you watch him on a nightly basis you can certainly see where it’s coming from now, there is still some doubt in his ability to replicate this season in the future. Karlsson is shooting a whopping 26.7% this season, which leads Anders Lee by 4% for the league lead. He’s directed just 101 shots on net, the fewest amount by anyone that has scored more than 17 goals. He trails the leaders in that category, Ovechkin and Vladimir Tarasenko, by more than 100.

Karlsson had a 7.7% shooting percentage coming into this season, and though some of the boost could be explained away by playing with some exceptional linemates, his current pace is almost impossible to maintain long-term. Whether that means it will fall back to his career average isn’t a guarantee, but somewhere closer to the league average of around 9% is much more likely. That brings out the question, of what to do in terms of an extension.

The 25-year old Karlsson is earning just $1MM this season, and isn’t scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent until the summer of 2020. That means any extension will be buying out two years of restricted free agency, unlike Marchessault’s deal or a potential contract for Neal, who is also a UFA this summer. That helps keep it low, but there is a way to perhaps keep it even lower if the Golden Knights believe in statistical regression more than Karlsson’s ability to shoot better than everyone else in the league.

Paying long-term for him at this point would likely mean handing him a very expensive extension. After all, he’s among the candidates for the Rocket Richard trophy and will be a key part of the first playoff appearance (and perhaps Presidents Trophy) in franchise history. But if they were to sign him to a shorter bridge deal, while still an obvious raise on his current salary, it would force him to prove once again he can be among the league’s best goal scorers before receiving out any long-term deal. The Golden Knights have to be careful not to overpay for production that isn’t likely to repeat—unless of course they think it will, and that this is the new Karlsson.

The contract negotiations for Karlsson will be one of the most interesting parts of the offseason, as he also has arbitration rights. His case will be one that will show the hand of the Golden Knights in terms of traditional or analytical negotiating, and how hard they’ll work to—if we can borrow a line from Karlsson’s old GM—try to keep the core of their team intact.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Frustration Growing For Panthers’ Alex Petrovic

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It wasn’t long ago that the Florida Panthers were working toward a long-term extension with defenseman Alex Petrovic. Coming off the best season of his young career in 2015-16, the then-24-year-old looked like he was blossoming into an elite two-way defenseman. Injuries struck last season, but Petrovic nonetheless saw increased ice time and an uptick in both offensive and defensive per-game numbers. He was rewarded by being protected in this summer’s Expansion Draft.

Yet, today the team’s position on Petrovic has changed and he’s taking notice. While Petrovic and the Panthers avoided arbitration with a one-year extension this summer, he’s had to sit back and watch fellow blue liners with less time spent in Florida sign long-term deals in Mark Pysyk and Michael Matheson. Now he’s watching the likes of Ian McCoshen and MacKenzie Weegar take his ice time away too. Petrovic has been a healthy scratch in nine of the Panthers’ 20 games this season and, as he tells the Miami Sun-Sentinal’s Matthew DeFranks, he’s sick of it.

“I think (the coaches) just don’t have the confidence in me when I’m out there to keep (making me a healthy scratch) for some reason,” Petrovic said. “I couldn’t tell you why. It is what it is. I just got to keep proving myself every day.” DeFranks describes Petrovic’s scratches as unusual, as the determined defender tends to watch games from the ground level rather than the press box and works out during period breaks. No amount of effort or showing of dedication seems to make a differences though; Petrovic hasn’t suited up since November 9th and “lines of communication between him and the coaching staff have evaporated”, DeFranks writes.

New Florida head coach Bob Boughner has done his best to de-emphasize the issues between he and his staff and Petrovic, but sooner or later the Panthers are either going to have to start playing their homegrown product or trade him away. Petrovic has shown a commitment to being in the lineup and, when active, has the numbers to prove improvement of the past two seasons. Teams will line up to get a young, physical defenseman on an upward trend offensively and defensively. GM Dale Tallon simply needs to decide whether he wants to take advantage of that value or keep that asset to himself, and he needs to decide soon.

Snapshots: Jagr, Iginla, Tatar

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The Prime Time Sports Management Conference, which was held in Toronto the past two days, featured several big names in the world of hockey including Commissioner Gary Bettman, IIHF President Rene Fasel, and of course, Calgary Flames President Brian Burke. With such a wealth of hockey knowledge and experience in one room, the interesting opinions and stories were constantly flowing. Yet, two tales stood out above the rest:

  • Burke, unsurprisingly, was the author of one of them. Burke told the crowd that Jaromir Jagr and Jarome Iginla, two future Hall of Famers who seemingly spent the summer with little attention paid to their free agent statuses, were in facts targets of the Flames all summer long. As we now know, Jagr was the end choice, as the 45-year-old signed on in Calgary in early October. Burke stated that the team evaluated and monitored both storied veterans throughout the off-season, waiting to see how things played out. Burke stated that, in the end, the team felt that Jagr had a much stronger 2016-17 season and brought a “charisma” to the team that they desired. It is no surprise that the team considered long-time captain Iginla, but after a difficult campaign where he looked lifeless at times, no one can blame the Flames for instead going with the ageless Jagr. In eight games thus far, Jagr already has a goal and four assists, as well as a +5 rating in Calgary.
  • The second intriguing story came from player agent Ritch Winter through sources at the NHL Players’ Association. It seems as though the current contract between forward Tomas Tatar and the Detroit Red Wings came much closer to not getting done than even the arbitration hearing time line indicated. The two sides went to salary arbitration this summer and were one of only a handful of cases to actually go to hearing. Yet, the two sides struck a deal prior to the arbitrator’s award – a four-year, $21.2MM bargain that even includes a no-trade clause beginning next season. Well, according to Winter, the fax from the arbitrator with his binding one-year decision came in to the NHLPA office mere minutes after the contract was signed. A few minutes earlier and any late agreement between the two sides would have been rendered null and void. It would come as no surprise if the Red Wings wish it had. Detroit filed at $4.1MM in arbitration, while Tatar’s side countered with $5.3MM. The eventual contract holds a $5.3MM AAV, meaning anything but an absolute finding for Tatar by the arbitrator would have resulted in a lesser cap hit than what the Wings are paying now. And what of the future? Yes, the long term deal keeps Tatar in Detroit longer, but with seven points in 18 games, the soon-to-be-27-year-old is on pace for the worst full season of his NHL career. The Red Wings may regret their long-term commitment and knowing they were only minutes ahead of a disqualifying decision only adds to the sting.

Uncertainty Surrounding Nate Schmidt Injury

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Few players have received as much attention this off-season as new Vegas Golden Knights defenseman Nate Schmidt. The up-and-coming blue liner was selected by the NHL’s newest club in the Expansion Draft after a pair of strong seasons with the Washington Capitals. Then, before even playing a game with the Knights, the restricted free agent and his new team went to salary arbitration, where Schmidt was the only player this off-season to actually receive a reward from the arbitrator after a hearing. Vegas signed Schmidt to the two-year, $4.45MM deal that had been awarded and it appeared the two sides were all set for the 2017-18 season, with Schmidt prepared to play a major role on defense.

However, things have changed in an unexpected way. Back in mid-August, it was announced that Schmidt was unable to attend a fan event in Montana due to an injury. It was later revealed that Schmidt suffered an ankle injury while training, but no other details were offered. Weeks later, there has been no update on Schmidt’s condition with training camp just around the corner. Sin Bin inquired about the status of Schmidt’s injury today and, again, received no feedback. A team representative simply stated that “there is no update”.

At this point, some worry by fans has become warranted. Although the Knights still roster ten other NHL-caliber defenseman, Schmidt was slated to battle for a top pairing role and his absence would make the start of Vegas’ inaugural season much more difficult. While there’s just as little evidence to support any thought that he might miss time as there is about the injury itself, the lack of information coming from the team is cause for concern. Keep an eye out for updates on the Knights’ promising young rearguard as the season quickly approaches.

Columbus Blue Jackets Sign Alexander Wennberg

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So much for digging in their heels. The Columbus Blue Jackets have signed Alexander Wennberg to a six-year, $29.4MM contract, ending what has been a long negotiation this summer. The 22-year old was a restricted free agent without arbitration rights, coming off his entry-level contract. The deal will pay him an average of $4.9MM each season, though it is slightly back-loaded:

  • 2017-18: $3.5MM
  • 2018-19: $4.5MM
  • 2019-20: $5.35MM
  • 2020-21: $5.35MM
  • 2021-22: $5.35MM
  • 2022-23: $5.35MM

"<strongWennberg posted career highs in nearly every statistical category last season, registering 13 goals and 46 assists for 59 points. That number put him second in team scoring on the Blue Jackets behind only Cam Atkinson, and solidified his reputation as a number one center for the team. Selected 14th-overall in 2013, Wennberg has quickly overcome any doubts in his ability to rack up points at the NHL level. Through 217 games, he has totaled 119 points and could easily set new career highs once again this season.

At first glance this contract seems like a fairly large bargain for the Blue Jackets. Wennberg comes in well below Jonathan Drouin’s recent six-year extension, despite the Montreal forward having less experience in the league and scoring fewer points last season. While you can point to Drouin’s draft pedigree and dynamic offensive upside, contracts are usually handed out based on actual in-game production which Drouin only leads slightly in a per-game basis. The Blue Jackets will be quite pleased with contract that comes in under $5MM, and it will help them keep their entire core together down the road.

Over the next two summers, Columbus has contracts to give out to players like Atkinson, Artemi Panarin, Boone Jenner, Zach Werenski, Ryan Murray and several more, while a deal for Josh Anderson is still on the table this offseason. Getting a key member of your forward group like Wennberg locked up for a reasonable number is a huge part in keeping your salary structure possible. He’ll actually come in as just the fourth-highest paid forward on the team this season, behind Panarin, Brandon Dubinsky and captain Nick Foligno.

Wennberg isn’t a perfect player. 21 of his assists came on the powerplay this season, and he needs to do a better job generating shots while at even strength. Though his defensive game has potential to be good enough to lock down opposing top lines, it’s not yet at the level of some of the elite centers in the league. He’ll never be an overly physical player, but his size does allow him to work capably in the corners and in front of the net. Success in the faceoff dot should be expected down the road, though the team will obviously live with his shortcomings in that area in order to get him on the ice as much as possible.

It will be interesting to see if Wennberg gels with newcomer Panarin, who plays a much different game than the outgoing Brandon Saad but could form a near-unstoppable trio along with Atkinson should they see time together. The three are all gifted offensive players, but could be spread out among the top two lines in order to work with more physical players like Jenner or Dubinsky. Either way, it will be one of the most dangerous forward groups in the league, capable of beating teams in several different ways.

This contract has ramifications outside of Columbus as well, as David Pastrnak and Bo Horvat look for similar long-term contracts. Both players are in similar situations coming off their entry-level contracts, though have different offensive profiles. Pastrnak put up much higher scoring numbers last year, but plays the wing and is 20 months younger than Wennberg, while Horvat has a better two-way game and has a higher draft pedigree. Pastrnak has been looking for a contract that would far outpace this deal, while Horvat’s negotiations have spanned everything from a two-year bridge deal to an eight-year pact.

Aaron Portzline of The Athletic reported the financial details of the contract. 

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Latest On Columbus Blue Jackets’ RFA Talks

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Even as the calendar turns over into September and NHL training camps are just around the corner, the Columbus Blue Jackets remain locked in important negotiations. Alexander Wennberg and Josh Anderson, two core restricted free agents, remain unsigned. As Aaron Portzline of The Athletic writes (subscription needed), it doesn’t look like anything is close. The Blue Jackets aren’t willing to give in to contract demands for players who are pre-arbitration, while agents look to continuously press the average salaries higher and higher.

Anderson apparently will begin skating in Switzerland to stay in shape, if the contract talks aren’t finished in the next few weeks. He’s coming off his first full year in the NHL, in which he scored 17 goals and showed off his versatility. Wennberg remains the team’s first-line center, and will likely be one of the three most important forwards on the team this year. Missing training camp would be a step back, though there is clearly no animosity between the two sides.

It’s business after all, something that is being seen all around the league this year. David Pastrnak, Bo Horvat and Andreas Athanasiou remain unsigned among many others, and even though there are often late-summer RFA signings, it’s still a scary proposition for fans to wait this long. Columbus still has plenty of cap space to sign both long-term if they so choose, but with big extensions coming up for the 2018-19 season—Cam Atkinson in particular—they’ll have to be very careful with how they spend their dollars.

After Arbitration Hearing, Nate Schmidt Still Without Contract

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Though arbitration hasn’t resulted in any decisions yet this season, Vegas Golden Knights defenseman Nate Schmidt could be the first to have a ruling come down. Steve Carp of the Las Vegas Review-Journal reports that the two sides went through the hearing today in Toronto, and still do not have a contract worked out. That leaves them with a 48 hour window with which to come to some sort of an agreement, similar to Tomas Tatar and Viktor Arvidsson last month.

Schmidt submitted a one-year $2.75MM ask, while the team countered with a two-year deal worth a total of $1.95MM. Like any arbitration, those are outside points on a contract that will ultimately fall somewhere in the middle. The two year term is not negotiable however, as Schmidt filed for player-elected salary arbitration, which gives the option on length to the team.

That said, a long-term contract is still a possibility between the two sides. Schmidt has shown impressive potential with the Washington Capitals in the past, and is a dynamic player who could fit in quite well with a team strapped for high-end skill. His skating ability would be quite the draw for new fans, though success on the ice is obviously paramount. If Schmidt does receive a cheap two-year term, he would immediately become an excellent trade chip, something we’ve discussed in the past for the Golden Knights. The 26-year old would be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the two years.

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