Snapshots: Russell, Eichel, Gilmour
Oilers defenseman Kris Russell is a divisive figure in the hockey world. Stop me if you’ve heard this before.
Russell has five points (all assists) in 31 games with the Oilers, mostly playing on the team’s second pairing with Andrej Sekera. He’s been part of the best Oilers blue-line since 2008, and is considered one of the reasons that the Oilers are sitting in third in the Pacific Division and on pace for a 65-goal improvement in goal differential. The Oilers are 17-7-7 with Russell in the lineup and 2-5-0 without him.
However, hockey fans, executives, and experts are torn on Russell’s impact. Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli plans on discussing an extension with Russell’s camp and is on record as being “pretty happy” with Russell. That opinion is not shared by the majority of the analytics community, including Oilers blogger Darcy McLeod. McLeod’s analytical work is respected among the blogging community and appears regularly on TSN 1260 to discuss the Oilers. He took a closer look at the impact that Russell has on teammates, specifically the claims that Russell has a positive effect on “shooting percentage of team mates and zone exits that lead to offensive zone entries.”
Chiarelli has previously mentioned those two micro-stats as evidence for why he likes Russell. McLeod explored Russell’s effect on teammates in his two seasons with Calgary and all his games with the Oilers this season. The full article is well-worth the read. Ultimately, he concludes that the positive effect that Russell had on Flames teammates did not carry over to Edmonton, and that out of the Oilers’ four centers, only Mark Letestu scores better with Russell on the ice, writing that “if Russell excels at zone exits, these exits are not resulting in more goals for the Oilers.” Even Connor McDavid scores nearly a full point less per-60 minutes while sharing the ice with Russell.
McLeod writes that he still believes Russell is a valuable number-four or five defenseman, but doesn’t believe the Oilers should sign him long-term, with Oscar Klefbom, Andrej Sekera, Darnell Nurse, and Brandon Davidson all being left-handed defenders under contract and posting better results than Russell. A one-year, $3MM contract would be acceptable to McLeod, but signing Russell and trading any of the above-mentioned defensemen would be “a downgrade in the quality of the Left Handed Dcorps of the Edmonton Oilers.”
- The second overall pick behind McDavid, Jack Eichel, expressed his disappointment with the way the Sabres’ season has gone so far. Despite the Sabres’ struggles (they’re currently last in the East), Eichel says the team hasn’t given up yet. He told John Vogl that “everyone needs to look in the mirror and we all need to get a lot better. I think I speak for the team in saying that we’re all frustrated with where we’re at, and I don’t think I’m the only person in the locker room that’s not satisfied.” It’s clear that Eichel is also stepping up as a leader in the locker room, and seems like the most-likely candidate to replace Brian Gionta as the next captain of the Sabres.
- Monday marks the 25th anniversary of one of the most infamous trades in NHL history. On January 2, 1992, the Toronto Maple Leafs acquired Doug Gilmour in a 10-player trade with the Calgary Flames. The Leafs sent Gary Leeman, Craig Berube, Alexander Godynyuk, Michel Petit, and Jeff Reese to Calgary for Gilmour, Jamie Macoun, Kent Manderville, Ric Nattress, and Rick Wamsley. As with most controversial trades, it was immediately labelled as robbery by the Maple Leafs. In this case, that turned out to be quantifiably true. Sean McIndoe broke down the trade over at Sportsnet, and pointed out that if you remove Gilmour, the trade is just barely a wash for the Flames. But the trade did include Gilmour, who was recently named the 13th-best Maple Leaf of all time. He scored 452 points in 392 games during his first stint with the team, returning for just five shifts before suffering a career-ending injury in 2003.
The Disastrous Duty Of Drafting Defensemen
In professional sports, there is an oft-quoted saying that suggests that “defense wins championships”. It’s no surprise that in the NHL, the best of the best are getting extensions like Aaron Ekblad (8 years, $60MM) and Victor Hedman (8 years, $63MM). They’re valuable assets in a league that doesn’t have enough capable defenders.
Back in the summer, we looked at the increasing value of right-handed defensemen, with players like Jason Demers (5 years, $22.5MM), Ben Lovejoy (3 years $8MM) and Roman Polak (1 year, $2.25MM) all getting contracts that seemed expensive for their on-ice value.
Perhaps it’s not just the right-handed ones though. Prices for defensemen are skyrocketing on both the open market and in trade negotiations, and it’s because even though teams want to draft and develop their own blueliners, it’s incredibly difficult to do so.
In the 2007 entry draft, there were 60 defensemen selected and only 13 of them have played more than 200 NHL games. Even that group includes players like Keaton Ellerby, Ian Cole and Yannick Weber who would not inspire much confidence at the top of anyone’s depth chart (apologies to Cole, who is having a fine season in Pittsburgh).
In comparison this is actually a fairly good draft, as in 2006 just six out of the 65 defensemen chose have crossed that 200 games threshold. While 2006 is perhaps the most stark example, as Erik Johnson (drafted first overall) is the only high-end defenseman in the entire draft – his competition for that title are the likes of Andrew MacDonald, Jeff Petry and Mike Weber.
Drafting defensemen is even more of a crap shoot, as often they develop later than forwards and rely more on experience and positioning than raw skill. In 2006, eight were taken in the first round and only Johnson is still in the NHL. Ty Wishart, Bobby Sanguinetti and Chris Summers highlight the rest of the round.
This past draft nine defenders were taken in the first round, with Jakob Chychrun in Arizona and a three-game taste from Montreal’s Mikhail Sergachev being the only forays into the NHL so far. Obviously, it’s much too early to tell whether any of these will be long-term options, but the past seems to say that many won’t.
For teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs or Edmonton Oilers, whose fan bases and media members have said for years to ‘just draft a defenseman’, it’s much more difficult than it seems. Even using your first round pick on a blueliner does not guarantee success, or even an NHL player. It’s hard to find those elite defensemen, even if you sink your whole draft into them.
With only a few successful ones coming out each year, it’s no wonder players like Jacob Trouba and Cam Fowler have huge price tags on their heads. Their teams may never get a chance at a player of their caliber again (although, Anaheim seems to buck this trend and have success with a high number of defensive draft picks).
Frank Corrado Sent To AHL On Conditioning Stint
The Maple Leafs have basically refused to play Frank Corrado all season, sitting him in the press box for all but one of their games this year. With that in mind, the team has sent him to the AHL on a conditioning stint that can last up to two weeks. Corrado is allowed to play in seven games before returning, which would feel like an entire season for him at this point.
The team has also sent Byron Froese to the Marlies today ahead of their upcoming road trip. The 25-year old center played in just two games after being brought up to replace an injured Tyler Bozak. The team has inserted young Frederik Gauthier into their fourth line center role after Ben Smith was placed on injured reserve, and from all accounts he’s done well enough to keep it.
These are interesting moves for a team that is about to go on a short road trip through Washington and New Jersey, especially because it’s the Leafs’ annual “Dad’s Trip”, where they bring the players’ fathers along on the road with them. The team now has two empty roster spots for the upcoming trip, meaning only Josh Leivo is there as an extra skater.
Likely there will be a corresponding move, whether it’s a trade or separate call up. It’s nice for Corrado though, who has had a tough year not playing anywhere. The 23-year old has now played just 40 games over the past two seasons with the Maple Leafs, which some would say has stunted his development somewhat. The former fifth round pick was a strong puck mover in junior, but has now played in just 68 games across parts of five seasons in the NHL.
Quotable: Babcock On Centennial Classic, Maple Leafs Future
When Auston Matthews scored his 20th goal of the season and lifted the Toronto Maple Leafs to a 5-4 overtime victory in the Centennial Classic Sunday night, they extended their win streak to five games and pulled within three points of the third place Boston Bruins for a playoff spot. While the team is still constantly blowing third period leads and have faced exactly zero playoff teams during the streak, many fans and media members are starting to think the postseason is a realistic possibility for the young club.
After the game, head coach Mike Babcock talked candidly about where he thinks his team is now and the atmosphere at the outdoor game.
On Matthews’ continued success:
Well he’s a good player. I mean, he played head to head with [Henrik Zetterberg], Z had three points, [Anthony] Mantha had three points. They were really good too, so let’s not get too carried away there.
Centennial Classic Notes: New Start Time, Differing Expectations
Frank Seravalli tweets that due to a sun glare in Toronto, the Centennial Classic will be pushed back thirty minutes from its expected 3ET start. Pierre LeBrun adds that concern for the players safety, due to the sun being in their eyes, is the main reason for the 3:30 ET start.
- Pension Plan Puppets managing editor Scott Wheeler writes how the Maple Leafs’ expectations are much different than they were three years ago when they played Detroit in the Winter Classic. Calling the team three years ago one in “flux,” Wheeler takes a long look at the changes made in what has been a transition toward building a champion. He notes that while the Leafs are sitting tenth in the Eastern Conference, the tone of the season feels “decidedly different” than the former, where they were competing for a playoff spot during the 2013-14 season. Besides the new faces, younger talent, and having Mike Babcock running the team, the Centennial Classic strikes a chord of change–one that signals a team on the rise versus a team, just three seasons ago, trending down with no hope in sight.
- On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Leafs’ opponents in Detroit are trying to figure out just what they really are. The Hockey News’ Matt Larkin reports that the Red Wings believe their chances to make the playoffs are there because of parity. But Larkin paints a more honest picture of the team than those within are willing to admit. The Red Wings power play is a nightmare, Larkin writes, and is a major reason the Wings are just 16-16-4. He adds that Detroit is the second oldest team in the league, saddled with an aging core, and unable to build around star Dylan Larkin because they lack “can’t-miss” talent in the minors. The main issue, however, is that the organization is hard wired to make the playoffs, a quarter century tradition that may impede the ability to rebuild properly. From Larkin:
Whether it’s a good thing for this team to keep wheezing its way to low-seed playoff berths doesn’t matter to the guys wearing the winged wheel crests. They’ll keep fighting until reality finally sets in. They believe the league’s unprecedented parity will help them triumph.
- Nick Cotsonika of NHL.com writes about Wings captain Henrik Zetterberg, who says the Red Wings are not only trying to extend the streak, but to win the Stanley Cup. Though some may bristle in the face of Detroit’s struggles, Cotsonika writes that the players “do not want to go quietly” and have no interest in being part of a rebuild. Cotsonika also included a story about the mixing of Leafs old and new, and how interacting with those from the Leafs’ storied past serves as inspiration for the new generation.
Snapshots: Pronger, Liljegren, Leafs Alumni
The St. Louis Blues and Chicago Blackhawks will play in the Winter Classic this Monday, meaning the weekend is designed around events like the Alumni game. With so many greats (including Wayne Gretzky and Martin Brodeur) suiting up for the Blues, former captain Chris Pronger took over their Twitter page to answer some fan questions.
On best and worst players to play against:
Worst player to play against was always the short ones. Favorite was Keith Tkachuk – I always owned him.
Who had the hardest check in the league:
Pound-for-pound, Dallas Drake probably hit the hardest. Scott Stevens in open ice. Rob Blake with his butt checks.
There are a dozen other amusing answers, as Pronger signed off each tweet with #loveforluca, a campaign that will donate $200 for every goal the Blues score towards a 7-year old’s battle with leukemia. It also has a GoFundMe page that is looking to raise $100,000 for the child’s medical expenses.
- According to Swedish newspaper Kvallsposten, Timothy Liljegren, the expected #2 overall pick in this summer’s draft, may soon be on the move to a new team. After missing time with an illness recently, the paper reports that he didn’t play at all yesterday against Karlskrona. The rumored landing spot is Timra, a team in the lower level Allsvenskan. Basically, this would be like a youngster on a bad NHL team going to the AHL to try and win a Calder Cup. Liljegren would get more icetime and responsibility for Timra.
- In Toronto, the Maple Leafs took to the ice to practice at BMO Field today in preparation for their Centennial Classic tomorrow against the Red Wings. When they got back into the dressing room, they were shocked to find out that they’d be sharing it with the alumni roster for today’s game. With Mitch Marner seated beside Doug Gilmour, Auston Matthews beside Wendel Clark and Morgan Rielly sidled up beside Borje Salming, it was a symbolic passing of the torch from the old legends to the new. Marner, a Toronto native, couldn’t contain his excitement, and took a stick around the room for an autograph session. The alumni game starts at 11am.
Snapshots: Bickell, Alumni, Finland
Bryan Bickell opened up to Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun Times and other reporters tonight for the first time since his announcement that he has multiple sclerosis, a disease that attacks the nervous system and can cause a wide array of debilitating symptoms. For anyone, the diagnosis would be life-shattering, but for Bickell it came at least as an explanation.
Before I was, like, frustrated in my game and things. But you’re relieved, knowing how I was feeling. Something wasn’t right. … The circumstances kind of suck, but to have it known — knowing you can move on is the biggest thing.
Bickell is determined to get back to the NHL, despite having to undergo intravenous drug treatments monthly. He’s obviously no where near returning, but is taking it one step at a time.
It’s going to take steps. It’s not a sprint, it’s going to be a marathon, and it’s going to take some time to get things right, ideally, to get me back on the ice. That’s what I’m hoping for. … It could be a month, it could be a couple months to get back on the ice.
We wish Bickell well on his recovery, and hope he makes it back to the NHL sooner than later. Here are some other notes from around the league:
- Outdoor games are becoming something of a regularity in the hockey world, with the Maple Leafs and Red Wings set to square off this Sunday in Toronto, and the World Juniors announcing that Canada and the USA will play outside at next year’s tournament in Buffalo. The AHL is getting in on the action, as the Ontario Reign (the Kings’ affiliate) and the Bakersfield Condors (Oilers) will play an outdoor game on January 7th. The teams will have an alumni game the day before, featuring a long list of NHL greats. Wayne Gretzky, Kevin Lowe, Luc Robitaille, Rob Blake and even Bernie Nicholls will play in the event, making it one not to miss if you live in the San Joaquin Valley.
- Amazingly, Team Finland will have to play in the relegation round at this year’s World Junior Championships, despite winning the tournament last year. It’s the first time in the history of the even that a defending champion will have to fight to stay in the event. With the Swiss team beating Denmark today in a shootout, Finland was guaranteed a last place finish in their group. In a surprising move, the team has fired head coach Jukka Rautakorpi and his three assistants mid-tournament. Jussi Ahokas has taken over the coaching duties.
The Busiest Day Of The Summer: Six Months Later
Thursday, December 29 marks the six-month anniversary of the wildest 23 minutes in NHL history.
On June 29, the Oilers traded Taylor Hall to the New Jersey Devils for Adam Larsson, the Canadiens traded P.K. Subban to the Nashville Predators for Shea Weber, and the Tampa Bay Lightning signed captain Steven Stamkos to an eight-year extension. All three of those moves came between 2:34pm and 2:57pm.
So far, the results have been mixed for the teams involved: the Devils are last in the Metropolitan Division, the Oilers are finally a playoff contender, the Canadiens are back to tops in their division, and Stamkos is likely to miss the last four-to-six months of the season.
Let’s take a closer look at the initial results for each team:
Edmonton Oilers — The decision to trade Hall was not popular in the Edmonton market. The former face of the Oilers rebuild had become one of the top left wingers in the world, behind only Alex Ovechkin and Jamie Benn on most rankings. Hall had 328 points in 381 games with the Oilers, despite the Oilers lack of NHL defensemen and centers for much of his tenure there. Ultimately, Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli felt comfortable replacing Hall with free agent Milan Lucic in order to secure a young, right-handed defenseman on a good contract. So far, Larsson has helped stabilize the Oilers defense with solid, if unspectacular play. Larsson has just six points in 36 games, but has developed chemistry with Oscar Klefbom on the Oilers future top pairing. The Oilers are currently second in the Pacific Division, and are showing real improvement over the last seven seasons. However, they are still a few pieces away from becoming a real contender, despite Connor McDavid‘s excellent play. While Larsson has been solid, the Oilers definitely gave up value on the trade, making this trade, at best, a passing grade for Chiarelli. Devils GM Ray Shero told Elliotte Friedman that “people want to decide winners and losers right away, but you have to build a team.” If the Oilers don’t manage to make the playoffs this season, then the pressure on Chiarelli will increase tenfold.
Montreal Canadiens — If the decision to trade Hall was considered unpopular in Edmonton, the Subban trade was even more so when the deal was announced. Subban had been a key fixture of the Montreal community in his six full seasons there. However, the final year of his tenure was full of controversy, beginning with Subban’s $10MM donation to the local children’s hospital. Many read into Max Pacioretty being named captain over Subban, and the conspicuous lack of a King Clancy nomination (for community leadership and humanitarian contributions) from his teammates. Then Carey Price got hurt and the Canadiens season went to hell. Whispers of trade rumors began. In particular, a February incident where Canadiens coach Michel Therrien singled out Subban for a give-away that led to a game-winning goal versus the Avalanche led to intensified rumors. Nothing seemed likely until the Predators offered Shea Weber just after the draft in June. The trade was much maligned for Weber’s age and the perception that his abilities were declining. That hasn’t proven to be the case just yet, as Weber has been the catalyst for the Canadiens resurgence. He has 20 points in 35 games so far, on pace for 25 goals and 57 points, both of which would represent career-highs. TSN’s Darren Dreger appeared on Montreal radio on Thursday morning and declared the Canadiens as the current winners of the trade. Weber’s presence and style of play is, by Dreger’s estimation, a better fit “for what the Montreal Canadiens needed.”
Nashville Predators — When news of the Subban-Weber trade came down, most in the hockey world couldn’t believe the news. No one could think of the last time two superstar captains and giants in their local community were traded for each other, one for one. The enormity of the deal was not lost on the two teams, with one front office member telling Friedman “I think both teams had moments where they couldn’t believe what they were considering.” Weber had been a pillar in Nashville since he first broke into the NHL, but the tough Western Conference was beginning to catch up with him. Defense partner Roman Josi was considered to be the better passer and skater, and some argued Josi was carrying the pair. With the Predators entering a new window of Cup contention, getting younger and more mobile became a priority, especially after trading Seth Jones in January. Subban’s style of play fits the Predators’ plans better. So far, Subban has 17 points in 29 games (a 58-point pace) but has been hurt since the middle of December. The Predators are barely above .500 and two points out of the final wildcard spot in the Western Conference. The trade definitely looks better for the Canadiens as of this writing, but the Predators are sure to figure things out soon. Considering Subban is four years younger than Weber, Nashville’s window should be open longer with Subban over Weber. That’s what GM David Poile wanted when he took the risk to move Weber, but he obviously feels the reward is worth it to add Subban to an already dynamic group of defensemen in Nashville. Let’s call this one a temporary win for Montreal with Nashville looking better long-term.
New Jersey Devils — After the trade went through, Shero told Friedman that he felt the Devils had the defensive depth to make the trade, referencing his time with the Penguins, where he traded Ryan Whitney and Alex Goligoski with with the knowledge that Kris Letang was up and coming. The Devils clearly believe that Damon Severson has the ability to become a top-pairing defenseman and replace Larsson. What New Jersey did not have was an up and coming offensive dynamo remotely close to Hall’s skill level. Shero told Friedman that teams had asked about Larsson’s availability and were told the only way that he would trade Larsson “is if it really makes sense.” Acquiring a franchise offensive player made sense. Hall has performed admirably for the Devils, and is currently on pace to score 54 points in 64 games while battling injuries. Unfortunately for the Devils, they remain in last place in their division and look unlikely to make the playoffs. The situation must be frustratingly familiar for Hall, who spent six seasons in Edmonton scoring at a high level with little defensive support. As mentioned above, the Devils clearly won the trade based on trade value, but as Shero said it’s all about building a team. Shero will need to build more support for franchise players Hall and Cory Schneider to work their way up the standings. If you ignore Edmonton being in contention for a playoff spot and New Jersey being in the lottery watch, New Jersey won the trade, hands down. Take team building into consideration, and the trade looks a little closer. It’s still a clear win for the Devils to acquire a legitimate superstar for less than full trade value.
Tampa Bay Lightning — Had it happened on any other day during the previous year, Stamkos re-signing in Tampa Bay would have dominated the news cycle for at least two or three days. But after the craziness of the half-hour preceding the announcement, it seemed to take something of a backseat to the pair of blockbuster trades. Stamkos took less than his perceived market value to stay in Tampa Bay where his heart is. He’s expressed his desire to retire as a member of the Lightning. Lightning GM Steve Yzerman told Friedman that he really didn’t know what would happen: “I wasn’t really sure what was going to happen. In the last week, we had no control.” But Stamkos ultimately chose to stay in Tampa Bay. With his blood clot and contract cleared up, Stamkos got off to a torrid start, scoring 20 points in 17 games. He was on pace for a 52-goal, 105-point season before a lateral meniscus tear put his season on hold until March at the earliest. There is some risk to having a player signed for eight years with three consecutive season-ending injuries (fractured tibia, blood clot, and meniscus tear). Injuries aside, signing a superstar scorer for $8.5MM per season long-term is a great deal for the Lightning, and leaves Yzerman room to do his best to keep the Lighting’s core together. Should Stamkos be able to stay healthy, then there’s no question that both sides will consider this contract a win.
Aleksander Barkov, Matt Murray Leave Games Early
Midway through the second period of the Florida Panthers-Toronto Maple Leafs game on Wednesday night, Aleksander Barkov disappeared from the bench and would not return. The 21-year old sniper is one of Florida’s few bright spots this season, following up his 59 point season with 27 in his first 35 games.
In his absence, Nick Bjugstad has been promoted to the top line. Hopefully it’ll spark the 24-year old, who only has two points this season. After three successful campaigns and in the second year of his six-year deal, Bjugstad has been a disaster. Injury and ineffectiveness have stolen the first part of the year, though perhaps skating with Jaromir Jagr will turn it around.
Heading into the third period in Pittsburgh with his team down 2-1, Matt Murray was replaced by Marc-Andre Fleury in net with no explanation from the team (in fact, the team’s Twitter account was at a loss for words). While there was contact on an earlier goal by Lee Stempniak, Murray finished the period.
After missing the first part of the season with a broken hand, he’s come back just as strong as ever. A .928 save percentage, 2.14 goals against average and a 13-3-1 record has Murray among league leaders again in his sophomore season. If he misses any more time, it only makes the Pittsburgh decision on whether to keep both goaltenders through the expansion draft even harder.
Two Players Sent To AHL As Roster Freeze Ends
With the NHL’s holiday roster freeze over, Washington and Toronto made a pair of minor transactions on Wednesday morning.
The Capitals sent rookie Zachary Sanford back to Hershey of the AHL, the Bears announced this morning. Sanford has played for both the Bears and Capitals this season, with one assist in 20 NHL games and four goals and seven points in just six AHL games. The Washington Post’s Isabelle Khurshudyan isn’t surprised by the move, considering Sanford had been a healthy scratch for three of the past four games after being recalled on December 17.
Meanwhile the Toronto Maple Leafs’ goaltending carousel continues, as the team demoted backup goaltender Jhonas Enroth to the AHL. The move has not been announced by the team as of this being written, but the move is already up on the AHL’s official transaction page and Enroth is listed on the Marlies roster. This comes one day after the Leafs recalled a trio of players, including goaltender Antoine Bibeau. Enroth was expected to be a solid backup for new starter Frederik Andersen, but has struggled mightily with no victories in six appearances and a 0.872 SV%. Because he makes under $950K, ($750K), he will not count against the Maple Leafs’ salary cap.
Enroth joins Karri Ramo, Garret Sparks, and Jeff Glass as goaltenders on the Marlies’ roster. Enroth and Sparks are under contract with the NHL club, Ramo is with the team on a tryout basis, and Glass is on an AHL-only deal after spending the past seven years in the KHL.