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Central Division Notes: Trouba, Carle, Rozsival, Tuch

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Despite Jacob Trouba’s recently publicized trade request, the Jets should only move him if it’s on their terms because of the bad precedent it would set for future RFAs, opines Ted Wyman of the Winnipeg Sun. As Wyman notes, the Jets are a draft-and-develop organization given their status as a small market team and the difficulties they face in competing for marketable free agents. Acquiescing to Trouba’s request would harm the club’s leverage when it comes to future negotiations with players like Nikolaj Ehlers, Kyle Connor and Patrick Laine when they reach restricted free agency. A small market club needs to be able to retain as much of their best young talent as possible and the Jets must be able to keep the salaries of their RFAs in line while those players are still under team control.

Wyman also believes that since Trouba has yet to live up to his full potential in his first three seasons on the league, he should be willing to accept a fair market contract and to play wherever his coach wants him to play. If he wants to move over to the right side, as he has indicated, he needs to beat out one of the incumbents – Dustin Byfuglien and Tyler Myers.

As Wyman writes further, it’s likely Trouba’s insistence on playing on the right side is in fact a smoke screen and the reality is the young defenseman simply wants out of Winnipeg. Of course Trouba and his agent, Kurt Overhardt, have both insisted his request is based solely on his desire to be a right-side defenseman and has nothing to do with the city or the organization.

More from the NHL’s Central Division:

  • Four seasons ago, Matt Carle’s stock was such that the 27-year-old defender received the second-largest contract inked by any player during the summer of 2011. Last season, he fell out of favor in Tampa Bay and despite the Lightning often suiting up seven blue liners, Carle still couldn’t crack the lineup. It was no surprise, then, that the Lightning opted to buy out the remaining two years of his deal as the team looked to save as much money as possible in order to re-sign several important free agents. Carle would end up signing a one-year deal with Nashville worth just $700K, where the 11-year veteran will be reunited with head coach Peter Laviolette. Under Laviolette, Carle had some of his best yearss, statistically, while a member of the Flyers, tallying at least 35 points in each of his final three seasons with the team. Carle hopes that at age-32 and playing for a coach with whom he is both comfortable and familiar, that he can once again be an important player for a contending team. The Predators do boast one of the league’s most talented blue lines but there is room for a veteran to stabilize the unit, particularly after dealing away team captain Shea Weber this summer.
  • Veteran defenseman Michal Rozsival has carved out a solid 15-year NHL career and realizes his days in the league are numbered. Rozsival has spent the past four seasons with the Chicago Blackhawks and was brought back by the club for what the 38-year-old defender hopes will be his fifth campaign in the windy city. But after the 2015-16 season, Rozsival wasn’t sure he would be back in Chicago and despite signing a one-year, $600K deal, he isn’t even sure what his role with the Hawks will be, as Chris Kuc of the Chicago Tribune writes. “Right now, I still don’t know what my role is. It might be determined by the way I play. The last four years I’ve played 20 games, I’ve played 30 games and I’ve played 50 games. I’m ready for anything and for any kind of role. Obviously, I would love to be playing. I’m always trying to fight for my ice time.” It’s likely the Blackhawks value his experience and will find a spot for him on the roster, even if it is as the seventh or eighth defenseman.
  • Minnesota entered training camp with a few openings at forward and plenty of candidates to earn those jobs. Unfortunately for the Wild, none of those candidates have impressed head coach Bruce Boudreau to this point in the preseason, according to Michael Russo of the Star Tribune. Veteran role players Zac Dalpe and Ryan Carter have failed to make a mark while youngsters Alex Tuch, Kurtis Gabriel, Joel Eriksson Ek and Tyler Graovac have yet to grab hold of a job. Whether this might prompt GM Chuck Fletcher to explore his alternatives or not is unclear but he may have to if the in-house options continue their collectively mediocre play.

 

Ducks Looking To Make Trade To Clear Cap Space For RFAs

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Pierre McGuire today spoke with Blake Price of TSN 1040 in Vancouver and ssiad that the Ducks were in talks with a team in the Eastern Conference to “unload a significant contract,” presumably in order to clear enough space to re-sign RFAs Hampus Lindholm and Rickard Rakell, according to this tweet from Price. We discussed Lindholm’s situation specifically earlier today, and if McGuire is accurate it would seem the Ducks and the Swedish-born defenseman have made enough progress on a new contract to prompt Anaheim to scour the trade market.

Earlier reports have placed Linholm’s asking price to be in the $6MM – $6.5MM range annually with the Ducks preferring to keep the AAV at around $5.5MM. For his part Rakell is looking for a contract similar to that which fellow Swede Victor Rask signed this summer: six years with an AAV of $4MM. Even if the parties meet somewhere in the middle of their respective positions, it looks like Anaheim will need somewhere between $9MM and $10MM of cap space to re-sign Lindholm and Rakell.

At this moment, the Ducks have around $7.5MM in available space according to Cap Friendly; meaning they will need to free up an additional $2MM to $3MM. It’s long been suggested Anaheim could move one of their other defensemen – Cam Fowler has been mentioned frequently – if needed, and they do have five on the roster – not counting Lindholm – slated to earn upwards of $3MM in 2016-17. The Ducks also boast enough young defensive depth in Shea Theodore and Brandon Montour to make the hypothetical loss of a veteran blue liner manageable.

Detroit has long been thought to be in the market for a top-four blue liner and has been linked to Fowler in the past. However it must be noted that the Ducks wouldn’t appear to be interested in taking back much, if any salary in a trade. Detroit is currently over the cap – though placing Johan Franzen and Joe Vitale on LTIR would bring the club within compliance – and would therefore seem a long shot to add salary without sending a contract back in the exchange.

Boston is another club who could use some help on the back end. They have enough room under the cap ceiling but may rather elect to see if some of their younger defenders evolve into top-four options as opposed to swinging a deal for an expensive veteran.

A wild card might come in the form of New Jersey, who could conceivably be interested in bringing in more blue line depth even after inking Kyle Quincey to a one-year contract earlier this week. The Devils have plenty of cap space and created a void on the back end earlier in the offseason in the Taylor Hall-for-Adam Larsson trade. Plus it’s interesting to note Devils GM Ray Shero was running things in Pittsburgh when the Penguins  drafted Simon Despres in the first round and perhaps Shero would be interested in reuniting with another of his former charges. Shedding Despres’ $3.7MM cap charge would free up the needed space for the Ducks to re-sign both Lindholm and Rakell, though the notion of trading Sespres is purely speculative.

Latest on Hampus Lindholm

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Ironically, part of what could get restricted free agent Hampus Lindholm dealt out of Anaheim is the length of time that he would actually like to stay in Anaheim. As was reported yesterday, Lindholm is hoping to re-sign with the Ducks for at least $6MM per year. However, it has also been revealed that he is looking for the maximum eight years as well. This puts Anaheim in a tough situation. They would like to sign the 22-year-old defenseman long-term, but at a cap hit closer to $5MM annually. Generally if two sides are far apart on a lengthy deal, they then turn to a bridge deal with less years and less money. However, if Lindholm holds tight to his demands of both money and term, than the Ducks have few options.  With Rickard Rakell still to sign as well, and only about $7.5MM in cap space, Anaheim cannot afford to meet Lindholm’s expectations without moving other salary. It remains to be seen whether they are willing to do so.

While the two sides try to work around the impasse, Lindholm has no plans of taking part in the Ducks’ pre-season camp. Agent Claude Lemieux, who has brought his toughness from the ice to negotiations, says that until Anaheim agrees to a long-term extension, Lindholm will train in his native Sweden. “Our plan is to report to the team once we have a contract signed,” Lemieux said, showing the resolve of the young defenseman and his representation. Unlike Sabres’ RFA blue liner Rasmus Ristolainen, who showed up to camp without a contract in a show of good faith, Lindholm will take a hard stance on his demands and wait for the Ducks to make their move.

RFA Notes

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It’s been an unusual off-season in the NHL, with seven high profile Restricted Free Agents (RFAs) remaining a week into training camp. Compared to last off-season, when teams moved quickly to sign or trade players to avoid the threat of offer sheets.

In a series of tweets, TSN’s Bob McKenzie sent out the latest in negotiations from across the league.

Anaheim Ducks – Hampus Lindholm and Rickard Rakell – The Ducks are using Morgan Rielly and Seth Jones as comparable contracts, while Lindholm’s camp is pointing to Aaron Ekblad’s $7.5MM AAV. McKenzie clarifies that Lindholm isn’t asking for $7.5MM, more in the $6MM-plus range. McKenzie hasn’t been able to determine the range of numbers from the Rakell negotiations yet.

Arizona Coyotes – Tobias Rieder – The two sides are less than $500K apart. Rieder is currently looking for two years at $2.5MM per season, while the Coyotes aren’t budging on their offer of two years in the low $2MM range. Rieder does have KHL offers to consider, or McKenzie suggests he could ask for a trade or hold out.

Buffalo Sabres – Rasmus Ristolainen – The Sabres and Ristolainen are in the same situation as the Ducks and Lindholm, according to McKenzie. The two sides are at least $1MM apart, with each side standing firm with their comparables.

Calgary Flames – Johnny Gaudreau – This is likely the most fascinating case, as Gaudreau isn’t technically an RFA because he falls under the 10.2(c) CBA clause. Because Gaudreau hasn’t accrued three years experience, he isn’t eligible for an offer sheet and therefore has basically no power, other than holding out. McKenzie believes the Flames want Gaudreau to sign in the same range as Sean Monahan (six-years, $6.375MM per) and no higher than captain Mark Giordano ($6.75MM per), while Gauderau is looking for more than $8MM per season. The two sides have not negotiated recently, according to McKenzie, who called the situation “bit of a Cold War”.

Tampa Bay Lightning – Nikita Kucherov – If not Gaudreau, then Kucherov is definitely the most complex RFA situation due to the Lightning’s cap issues. While Kucherov has a long list of comparable contracts in the six-year, $36MM range, that’s not possible in the Lightning’s current state. They’ll need to move someone to accommodate another $6MM; McKenzie believes Ben Bishop will be traded sometime this season, but expects he’ll start the season in Tampa.

Winnipeg Jets – Jacob Trouba – There has been plenty of digital ink spilled on Trouba’s trade request, but the only new information from McKenzie was that Trouba is not interested in signing an offer sheet, because the Jets would not be allowed to trade him for a calendar year, should they match. That defeats the purpose of wanting to be traded.

It is still early in the season, but there is a firm deadline coming up: December 1st. Should an RFA not be signed by then, then he will be ineligible to play for the remainder of the season.

This is likely only a consideration for Trouba, with the Jets’ habit of slow-playing trade requests and waiting out poor trade offers.

Atlantic Notes: Wisniewski, Girgensons, Marner

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Despite plenty of postseason success the last two seasons resulting in two trips to the Eastern Conference Finals and a Stanley Cup Finals berth in 2015, the Tampa Bay Lightning have ultimately come up short of reaching their goal. Returning almost entirely the same roster for 2016-17, the Lightning should again be among the best teams in the east and one certainly capable of winning the Stanley Cup. And despite not adding much impact talent from outside the organization this summer, a minor addition might be the “missing piece” in the Lightning’s championship puzzle, opines Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times.

Right-handed defenseman James Wisniewski, who missed all but one shift of the 2015-16 season because of an ACL tear, was signed by Tampa to a PTO and has an excellent chance of making the team out of camp. As Smith notes, the Lightning ranked 28th in the NHL in power play efficiency and that’s an area Wisniewski specializes in. The 11-year-veteran has tallied more than half of his 53 career goals on the man-advantage and has twice recorded seven in a single season.

The Lightning do list Anton Stralman, Braydon Coburn and Andrej Sustr as right-side defenders, though as a left-handed shooter, Coburn could potentially play on either side. Tampa also re-signed RFA Nikita Nesterov, another starboard-side shooter, further congesting that side of the blue line depth chart. But, as Smith writes, when GM Steve Yzerman reached out to Wisniewski, he indicated the team had been looking for a right-handed shot on the blue line who could help out on the man advantage and that should improve his chances of finding playing time in Tampa Bay.

Elsewhere in the NHL’s Atlantic Division:

  • After a down year in 2015-16, Zemgus Girgensons is ready to turn the page and hopeful a consistent role with the Sabres will help him get back on track, writes John Vogl of The Buffalo News. Girgensons had a strong sophomore season in 2014-15 recording 15 goals and 30 points in 61 games. But under new head coach Dan Bylsma and moving back-and-forth from center to wing, Girgenson netted just seven goals and 18 points in 71 contests this past season. Bylsma is prepared to start the season with the  22-year-old Latvian at center with the hope it will allow him to rebuild some of his confidence. Girgensons inked a new one-year deal worth $1.15MM as a RFA and is banking on a much better season in 2016-17.
  • Mitch Marner, selected fourth overall in 2015 by Toronto, is not a sure bet to make the Maple Leafs roster to open the 2016-17 campaign but if he keeps performing as he did Monday night, his chances look good. According to Rob Longley of the Toronto Sun, Marner was “electric” on the ice and generated several quality scoring chances for the Leafs. Marner finished with two assists in the Ottawa Senators 6 – 3 win over Toronto but the 19-year-old pivot was the best player on the ice for either team and took a great first step in convincing the Leafs he is ready for the NHL.

Trouba Asks Out Of Winnipeg

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Update (8:05pm): The Jets have indeed released a statement, which Custance shared via Twitter. In it, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff calls Trouba, “an important part of the long-term future of our club.” He continued by saying: “any decisions made regarding Jacob Trouba will be in the best interest interest of the Winnipeg Jets Hockey Club.”

Cheveldayoff also stated they would “continue to work dilligently to resolve this matter.”

It seems clear the Jets would much rather keep the young blue liner and the team holds nearly all of the cards in this situation. The only two options open to Trouba as a free agent are to sit out and not collect a paycheck or to sign in the KHL. Neither scenario is likely to hold much appeal for Trouba. The Jets might be open to moving Trouba but it sounds as if Cheveldayoff is ready to dig his heels in and only execute a deal if it makes sense for Winnipeg.

(7:04pm): Jacob Trouba’s agent, Kurt Overhardt, released a statement this afternoon officially asking the Winnipeg Jets to trade the restricted free agent defenseman. According to Darren Dreger, who just spoke with Trouba, the request has nothing to do with his feelings for the organization or the city of Winnipeg, but rather about opportunity and ice time. The Jets are deep in right-handed defensemen with Dustin Byfuglien, Tyler Myers and Paul Postma all on the roster and capable of playing the right side.

Trouba was quoted by Dreger, again via tweet, saying: “I didn’t want it to get to this point. To not play is not what I want. This has nothing to do with money…it never has.”

Dreger later tweeted that several teams are unsurprisingly already interested in possibly acquiring Trouba. The Jets are expected to release a statement on the situation “shortly.”

Earlier today we updated the Trouba situation with Winnipeg with club executives saying they expected to sit down with the RFA defender and try to hammer out a new deal. Clearly Trouba’s trade request changes that outlook significantly.

It’s not clear what Winnipeg would demand from interested clubs in exchange for Trouba, but the price is likely to be high. Craig Custance of ESPN suggests the team could look for a comparable, young left-side defender in return. If not a fellow blue liner, perhaps the Jets would want to add a young goal-scorer as the team is returning just three wingers who topped 30 points or 15 goals, though that’s just my own speculation.

Trouba is coming off a 21-point campaign and averaged 22:04 of ice time per game for the Jets. Curiously, he ranked third among Winnipeg blue liners in ice time, just :33 less than Myers, which would seem to contradict part of Overhardt’s statement indicating the request was based on Trouba’s desire to be a top-four blue liner.

 

Central Notes: Wiercioch, Fleischmann, Jets Goalies

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The biggest hockey headline out of Colorado this summer was the unexpected departure of head coach and VP of operations Patrick Roy. Mike Chambers of The Denver Post told PHR in an earlier interview that his belief was that Roy insisted on acquiring a top defenseman this summer, perhaps at the cost of one of their top young forwards, but that GM Joe Sakic and his “support staff” wanted to stick with the core. In fact, the only blue line addition of note was the signing of free agent Patrick Wiercioch, who wore out his welcome in Ottawa and was not qualified as a RFA. But as Chambers writes, Weircioch may come to Colorado with little fanfare but his skill set is exactly what the Avalanche needs.

Wiercioch is a big defenseman – listed at 6-foot-5, 202 pounds – who can move the puck and contribute on the power play. Chambers also notes that the five-year veteran is a quality stick-handler and passer, which will hopefully help the team’s transition game. According to Chambers, Wiercioch was looking for a fresh start after five mostly disappointing seasons in Ottawa, and is looking forward to again playing in Colorado, where he played his college hockey for the University of Denver.

“Even before the trade deadline we were talking about what our avenues were. We both kind of decided if nothing were to happen, it’s not the end of the world because I have a wife and kid and it’s a tough transition to pick up and move for eight weeks.”

“But going into the summer I think we were both ready for the next chapter — for their organization and my career as well. It ended up being Colorado. When we looked at the options and the offers with more money, this was the franchise I really wanted to come play for. I really wanted to be excited about the opportunity here.”

Colorado agree to a one-year deal with Wiercioch worth $800K after which he will again become a RFA, thus giving the Avalanche additional contractual control. Wiercioch may not be the big name Roy wanted but he’ll have a tremendous opportunity to play a significant role for the Avalanche and could end up being a nice free agent bargain.

Other notes from the NHL’s Central Division:

  • As we noted yesterday, Tomas Fleischmann, who had agreed to a PTO with Minnesota, failed his physical. Mike Russo of the Star Tribune provides a further update saying the Czech-born forward will not be attending camp with the Wild, according to GM Chuck Fletcher. Neither head coach Bruce Boudreau nor Fletcher specified what issue caused the failed physical though Russo speculated it might be a recurrence of blood clots that Fleischmann had been diagnosed with in the past. Fletcher said about the veteran winger: “He’s such a good person, it’s unfortunate. So I hope he catches on somewhere else. It’s just a disappointment. I like him enough that I want to see him succeed somewhere.” Russo inferred from these comments that whatever the issue, it doesn’t seem as if it would necessarily keep Fleischmann from playing elsewhere, if another opportunity presents itself.
  • Ondrej Pavelec and young Connor Hellebuyck are expected to compete for the starters job between the pipes for the Jets this season. Both goalies participated in the World Cup of Hockey – Pavelec for the Czech Republic and Hellebuyck as part of Team North America – and say that experience has helped them as they prepare to battle for the #1 job, writes Mitchell Clinton for the Jets team site on NHL.com. Pavelec, who finished with a disappointing 90.4% save percentage in 33 games – 31 of which were starts – and would appear to be behind Hellebuyck entering camp. The rookie, who was a two-year starter at the University of Massachusetts-Lowell, made 26 starts for the Jets and recorded a save percentage of 91.8%. Michael Hutchinson, who has started 68 contests over the last two seasons, is under contract with Winnipeg for two more years and is a solid backup should the Jets choose Hellebuyck as the starter and find a way to move Pavelec’s contract.

 

 

Latest On Jacob Trouba’s RFA Situation

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Quite a bit of digital ink has been spilled this summer over restricted free agent defenseman Jacob Trouba, and his continuing negotiations with the Winnipeg Jets for his next contract. While speculation has been rampant around a possible trade (at one point he was linked to Boston on an offer sheet) or other transaction, the team has continued to try and re-sign him long term.

Ken Wiebe of the Winnipeg Sun caught up with Jets’ GM Kevin Cheveldayoff today to talk about Trouba, and he said just as much.

For us, Jacob is a big part of our organization. He’s someone we drafted and really believe in, long-term and moving forward.

Wiebe also says that talks are ongoing, and now that Trouba is back from the World Cup the two sides will try even harder to get something done before the beginning of the season. We profiled Trouba’s RFA case back in August, and examined his contemporaries and comparable players.

It’s tough for Winnipeg to work something out long-term when they’re unsure of what Trouba is eventually going to become. While his advanced stats profile out to a top-pairing defenseman, he can battle consistency at times (like many young players) and is clearly third or fourth on the depth chart. With almost $20MM tied up already in Dustin Byfuglien, Toby Enstrom and Tyler Myers through 2018, extending a long-term deal at a high cap hit will be difficult.

For every day a contract isn’t done, Trouba loses time to work with his teammates and build up towards this season. While he’s already expected to be in good shape due to his stint at the World Cup, every minute of a missed training camp can effect how you perform on the ice in the first few months. If the Jets plan on pushing for a playoff spot this season, they need their entire compliment of defensemen playing at the top of their game from night one.

Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Wennberg, DeHaan, Zibanejad

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Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated their respective negotiation processes.

Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency, unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we continue in the Metro.

Alexander Wennberg (Columbus) – Wennberg was the Blue Jackets first-round pick in 2013, selected 14th overall. He debuted in the NHL during the 2014-15 season and finished with 20 points in 68 contests. He bumped his production up significantly in year two, recording 40 points in 69 games and flashing top-six potential.

Wennberg is more playmaker than goal scorer as his career 4-to-1 assist-to-goal ratio suggests. Washington’s Marcus Johansson posted similar career numbers through the expiration of his ELC with 33 goals and 62 assists in 183 contests; good for a points-per-game rate of 0.52. Johansson would sign a two-year contract worth $4MM total following the 2012-13 campaign.

The career production numbers between the two pivots should look similar given Wennberg tallies 40-plus points in close to a full slate of games in 2016-17 and would therefore be looking at a bridge deal right around the $2MM mark annually. Given Johansson’s second contract will be four years old, inflation could take that figure closer to $2.5MM per year. A longer term would appear unlikely as the Jackets will still have several inflated contracts on the books, including those of Scott Hartnell, Nick Foligno, Jack Johnson and Brandon Dubinsky.

Calvin de Haan (New York Islanders) – Now 25, de Haan is now at the age many defensemen peak in terms of production. Originally the 12th overall selection in the 2009 draft, de Haan has already established himself as one of the Islanders best defenders and will once again fill a spot in the club’s top-four. If he can stay healthy for a full slate of games and perhaps contribute a touch more in the offensive end, de Haan could set himself up for a nice raise on the $1.97MM AAV his current contract calls for.

Teammate Travis Hamonic, drafted by the Islanders in the second-round in 2008, is a bit more prolific offensively but should help us gauge de Haan’s potential value as a top-four defender. Upon the expiration of his ELC, Hamonic signed a seven-year, $27MM deal with an AAV of $3.857MM. By that time, Hamonic was already averaging better than 22 minutes of ice time and 0.33 points-per-game. If the two parties explore a long-term arrangement, it’s likely de Haan can point to Hamonic’s deal as a comparable.

Mika Zibanejad (New York Rangers) – As part of their overall team commitment to get younger and quicker this summer, the Rangers acquired the 23-year-old pivot from Ottawa in exchange for fellow center, Derick Brassard. Zibanejad, the Senators first-round pick in 2011, sixth overall, has steadily improved his offensive production since debuting as a regular during the strike-shortened 2012-13 campaign. Last season was Zibanejad’s best, with the Swede compiling 21 goals and 51 points in 81 contests.

A player with a similar pedigree, former high first-round choice and relatively consistent point-producer, Nazem Kadri, inked a six-year extension worth $27MM in April and that deal should serve as a reasonable target for Zibanejad. Kadri has averaged 0.59 points-per-game over the three seasons prior to his extension – 134 points in 227 games. Zibanejad, meanwhile, has averaged 0.57 points-per-contest the last three years – 130 points in 230 games.

Zibanejad is entering the final season of the two-year bridge deal he signed with Ottawa, paying the five-year veteran $2.625MM per season. A repeat of his 2015-16 performance this upcoming season should give Zibanejad a good chance to match the level of Kadri’s extension. But, if Kadri takes the next step in his development and makes a push for the 60-point threshold, he could see his value escalate to $5MM and up per season.

Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Johansen, Parayko, Teravainen

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Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated their respective negotiation processes.

Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency, unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we finish with the Central Division and move to the Metro.

Ryan Johansen (Nashville) – In Ryan Johansen, the Predators finally have that elusive #1 center they have lacked since the organization’s inception nearly two decades ago. In a rare “hockey trade” that benefited both parties, Nashville acquired Johansen from Columbus in exchange for Seth Jones, a potential franchise defenseman and something the Blue Jackets have sorely needed.

Johansen has tallied at least 60 points in each of the last three seasons and scored a career-best 71 as a 22-year-old during the 2014-15 campaign. On the downside, his goal scoring output has decreased from a career-high 33 in 2013-14 to 26 the following season and to just 14 in 2015-16. That’s likely the direct result of a shooting percentage of just 7.6%, a figure which was more than five points below the combined shooting percentage the two previous seasons. Simply converting shots at his normal rate would have resulted in a 24 – 25 goal campaign.

The Predators have done a marvelous job of locking up their core pieces to bargain long-term deals. Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi, Craig Smith and Mattias Ekholm have all recently inked extensions with Nashville at AAVs below what each player could have received on the open market. The trade-off for higher salaries during RFA years is cost-certainty and buying out free agent years below market value. Expect Nashville to employ the same strategy with Johansen.

Sean Monahan and Nathan MacKinnon have each established themselves as 60-point producers and received extensions with an AAV in excess of $6MM. Aleksander Barkov, coming off a career-best 59-point season, signed a six-year, $35.4MM deal with Florida. All three, however, were coming off their ELCs while Johansen is entering the final season of his second contract. That means any long-term deal would buy out more free agent seasons and typically that tends to be more expensive. Based on the comparable deals and his proximity to free agency, a long-term contract for Johansen could well approach or even reach $7MM annually.

Colton Parayko (St. Louis) – Parayko came out of nowhere to earn a regular job on the Blues blue line and posted a solid scoring line of 9-24=33 in 79 contests as a rookie. He boasts a hard shot from the point and tremendous size at 6-foot-6 and 226 pounds. Currently, Parayko is skating in the World Cup as a member of Team North America, flashing his abilities on the international stage.

With only a single season of NHL experience, gauging Parayko’s potential value is difficult. However, if he approximates his 2015-16 production levels this upcoming season, the four-year, $19.5MM contract awarded to Sami Vatanen by the Ducks could prove to be a reasonable comparable.

Vatanen posted campaigns of 37 and 38 points in 2014-15 and 2015-16 respectively before inking his current deal. Like Parayko, Vatanen is also a right-handed defenseman, which is more difficult to find than their counterparts on the left side.

St. Louis could counter with Ryan Ellis as a comparable. Ellis signed a five-year, $12.5MM contract in October of 2014 following a 27-point campaign with the Predators. But most would argue Ellis is worth more than that AAV and consequently Parayko would be too. It’s also possible the Blues would prefer to go with a bridge contract with a lower AAV than Parayko would be able to get on a long-term deal.

Teuvo Teravainen (Carolina) – The Hurricanes took advantage of Chicago’s salary cap woes and in exchange for agreeing to take on the final season of Bryan Bickell’s $4MM-a-year-deal, were rewarded with the skilled Teravainen. Much was expected from the young Finn following the 2014-15 postseason that saw Teravainen record 10 points in 18 games as the Hawks won their third Stanley Cup in six seasons. While a 35-point campaign as a 21-year-old is solid, Teravainen’s skill suggests there is even more scoring potential.

It makes sense to stick with the Hurricanes when looking for a comparable since doing so offers insight to how the club values their RFAs. Earlier this summer, Carolina agreed to a six-year, $24MM extension with Swedish center Victor Rask. Rask was coming off a breakout campaign which saw the 23-year-old pivot post career-highs in both goals (21) and assists (27). More importantly, his first NHL season mirrored Teravainen’s in terms of production as Rask netted 11 goals and 33 points in 80 games for the Canes in 2014-15. If Teravainen follows the same path and boosts his offensive production into the 45-point range, a contract similar to that of Rask’s would seem a safe bet.

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