Salary Cap Deep Dive: Pittsburgh Penguins

Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those who don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2025-26 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia.  We’re currently covering the Metropolitan Division, next up are the Penguins.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Current Cap Hit: $82,466,429 (below the $95.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Rutger McGroarty (two years, $950K)
D Owen Pickering (two years, $886.7K)

Potential Bonuses
McGroarty: $500K
Pickering: $250K
Total: $750K

The hope was that McGroarty would lock down a full-time spot last season but it didn’t happen.  Instead, he spent most of the season with Wilkes-Barre/Scranton but showed well down the stretch which could give him a chance amidst a fairly deep group of depth forwards.  Even if he does play regularly, he’s unlikely to hit his two ‘A’ bonuses.

Pickering might be in the mix on the back end but their offseason defensive depth additions make it likely as things stand that he starts in the minors.  With 25 NHL games last season, he’s tracking towards a bridge deal, especially if he spends a good chunk of the year in the AHL.

Signed Through 2025-26, Non-Entry-Level

F Noel Acciari ($2MM, UFA)
D Alexander Alexeyev ($775K, RFA)
D Connor Clifton ($3.333MM, UFA)
F Connor Dewar ($1.1MM, UFA)
D Mathew Dumba ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Kevin Hayes ($3.571MM, UFA)*
F Danton Heinen ($2.25MM, UFA)
F Blake Lizotte ($1.85MM, UFA)
F Evgeni Malkin ($6.1MM, UFA)
F Anthony Mantha ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Ryan Shea ($900K, UFA)
G Arturs Silovs ($850K, RFA)
F Philip Tomasino ($1.75MM, RFA)

*Philadelphia is retaining an additional $3.571MM on Hayes’ deal.

Potential Bonuses
Mantha: $2MM

Let’s face it, this is quite the long list and that’s by design for GM Kyle Dubas who is setting up for maximum flexibility over the next couple of summers.

One part of that flexibility will be the end of Malkin’s contract.  A deal that took way longer than expected to hammer out, giving him four years at the age of 35 seemed to carry some risk but it has held up alright as he has notched 200 points in 232 games over that stretch although he is slowing down now.  With that in mind, he might not provide a particularly strong return on this final season but overall, they did reasonably well on this contract.  Malkin’s future with Pittsburgh and the NHL in general will be in question after this as the Penguins might not want to keep a player who would be 40 on a team that’s trying to rebuild while Malkin may not want to go elsewhere after spending what will be 20 years with the Penguins.  If he does, a one-year pact with lots of performance bonuses will be the deal other teams will offer.

The hope was that a change of scenery for Hayes might get him going after a tough year in St. Louis but instead, his role was reduced further and his performance dipped more.  It’s hard to see that changing but his track record is still good enough that he could land around $3MM or so on another short-term deal as long as this season is around how he did last year.  Mantha comes over from Calgary following an injury-riddled year that caused him to miss the final 69 games due to ACL surgery.  When he’s on, he can be an effective top-six piece but has done so sporadically to the point where he needed a one-year deal last summer coming off an inconsistent season.  If he rebounds, he could get back to the $4MM range but that’s far from a given.  His bonuses are fairly simple; he’ll receive $250K at every ten-game increment he plays from 10 to 80.

Heinen was acquired from Vancouver as part of the Marcus Pettersson trade last season and did okay with his new team.  He’s capable of putting up decent production from a bottom-six role which earned him this contract last summer but he’s not far removed from having to take a PTO either.  If he hovers around the 30-point mark again, he could command a similar price tag to this on the open market next summer.  Acciari’s first two seasons in Pittsburgh haven’t lived up to expectations.  More of an impactful player offensively in 2022-23, his production the last two years hasn’t added up to that mark.  He’s still a physical fourth liner who can kill penalties and win faceoffs but barring an uptick in output this season, Acciari is likely heading for a small dip in pay.

From a point-per-game perspective, last season wasn’t bad for Lizotte but the injury bug got him again for the second straight year.  While he can be a 30-point player when healthy, he needs to show he can stay in the lineup for closer to a full 82 games to have a shot at besting this deal next summer.  Tomasino had some decent moments after being picked up from Nashville.  It’s too early to say that he could be part of their longer-term plans which is why the one-year pact made sense for both sides.  He was non-tendered to avoid arbitration rights in June before re-signing and that could be his fate again unless there’s an uptick in his production.  Dewar also went through the non-tender process six weeks ago but, like Tomasino, quickly re-signed.  After seeing low minutes in Toronto, he fared better down the stretch but will need to be more of a third liner than a fourth if he wants to get to another level in terms of his contract instead of going year-to-year at only a bit above the league minimum.

Dallas signed Dumba last summer, feeling that he could still be a serviceable second-pairing player.  That didn’t happen.  Instead, he struggled in a very limited role before being scratched entirely in the playoffs and traded away with draft compensation for taking on the final year of his deal.  It’s possible that he rebounds but it’s also possible that he has a very limited role again.  At this point, he’d be hard-pressed to reach half of what he’s making now.  Clifton wasn’t able to establish himself as more of a third-pairing option with Buffalo in his two seasons with them before being moved in an offseason swap as well.  He’s a more reliable option than Dumba at this point and his market should be okay next summer, just with a price tag closer to the $2MM mark instead of more than $3MM once again.

Shea is a success story from Group Six free agency.  While not many of those players find better opportunities elsewhere, he did just that, going from never seeing NHL action in Dallas to playing in 70 games with Pittsburgh over the last two seasons, landing him two straight one-way deals.  With still a limited role, it’s hard to see him going much higher than this but it’s still a nice turnaround for someone earmarked as a full-time AHLer just a couple of years ago.  Alexeyev hardly played at all last season, leading to a non-tender from Washington.  He’ll need to at least establish himself as more of a viable sixth option or he could be heading toward two-way offers moving forward.  He’s still arbitration-eligible but unless he breaks out and has a big year, he’s a safe bet to be non-tendered again next offseason.

Silovs was brought in via a recent trade with Vancouver to take a run at a full-time NHL backup spot.  He had that going into last season with the Canucks but struggled mightily.  However, he had a solid year with AHL Abbotsford before playing a key role in their Calder Cup victory, making it unlikely he’d slip through waivers.  If he can establish himself as being at least a suitable full-season backup, doubling this price tag with arbitration rights is doable.

Signed Through 2026-27

F Justin Brazeau ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Sidney Crosby ($8.7MM, UFA)
D Erik Karlsson ($10MM, UFA)*
F Thomas Novak ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Parker Wotherspoon ($1MM, UFA)

*-San Jose is retaining an additional $1.5MM on Karlsson’s contract.

Crosby is quietly beginning a new contract with the Penguins this season although it’d be easy to miss that considering he has had the same cap hit since 2008, a price tag he has provided significant surplus value on.  At 38, he might still provide plenty of value on this contract coming off a 91-point season which shows he still has plenty left in the tank.  He’s been featured in plenty of trade speculation given that he’s nearing the end of his career and the Penguins aren’t close to contention but with full trade protection, Crosby will get to decide his fate.  But no matter where he winds up (and staying in Pittsburgh remains the overwhelmingly likely outcome), he’s a safe bet to continue to provide positive value money-wise.

Novak was brought over near the trade deadline in a trade with Nashville.  He didn’t come close to reaching the 40-point mark for the third straight year, instead barely amassing half of that despite some solid underlying numbers.  If he can even get into the mid-30s offensively, this deal should hold up well given the high demand for centers.  Brazeau was a full-time minor leaguer just a couple of years ago and only has one full NHL season under his belt.  However, he did well enough to land this deal in free agency.  If he puts up another couple of double-digit goal campaigns, he should be able to push past $2MM in 2027.

Karlsson hasn’t been able to come close to reaching 100 points again as he did in his final season in San Jose but he has remained one of the better offensive blueliners in the NHL.  His defensive warts notwithstanding, he’s someone who can still handle big minutes and while his price tag is an overpayment for his current performance, it’s probably only a few million above market value at most.  If he’s still an above-average offensive threat two years from now, a two-year deal even at 37 could be doable, albeit at a significantly lower price tag.  Wotherspoon had his best showing last season with Boston, holding his own in 55 games with the Bruins to earn the first seven-figure deal of his career.  If he can remain a capable third-pairing player over his time on this contract, doubling this price tag could be doable.

Signed Through 2027-28

G Tristan Jarry ($5.375MM, UFA)
D Kris Letang ($6.1MM, UFA)
F Rickard Rakell ($5MM, UFA)
F Bryan Rust ($5.125MM, UFA)

Rust has become a reliable scorer for Pittsburgh, reaching the 20-goal mark for the sixth straight time last season, a year that saw him score a career-best 31 times.  He has slotted in nicely on the top line and having a capable top liner at this price point is a nice bargain.  Even if he’s better suited as a second-liner at times, this contract is still team-friendly in that role.  He’ll be 36 when his next deal starts which might hurt his free agent case but if he’s still scoring at this rate, he could still beat this price tag.  Rakell’s tenure with the Penguins has had its ups and downs but last year was certainly the former as he had a career year with 70 points.  $5MM for that value is great.  On the other hand, he only had 37 the previous year which isn’t great value for that price tag.  If he can even settle in around 50 points moving forward, he’ll have a shot to beat this price as a 35-year-old in 2028.

As expected, Letang did well in the first couple of seasons of his deal before taking a bit of a step back last season.  At 38, that decline is probably going to continue.  The good news is that they’ll have ample cap flexibility to deal with it but it would be surprising to see him playing anywhere close to the type of role he’s playing now in three years.

Jarry has shown flashes of being a legitimate starter over the years.  The problem is that they remain flashes and are at times followed by extended struggles and there were plenty of those last season to the point where finding a trade option seems unlikely.  He’ll get another chance to lock down the number one spot with Silovs clearly not ready for a huge role yet but he will need to turn things around or risk becoming a buyout candidate before long.

Signed Through 2028-29

D Ryan Graves ($4.5MM, UFA)

Graves was brought in to stabilize the back end two years ago.  That hasn’t happened and instead, he has struggled mightily in reduced minutes.  If Pickering or even Caleb Jones (who signed a two-year, $900K one-way deal this summer) makes a real run at a roster spot, Graves could find himself on waivers and in the minors with a reduced cap charge of $3.35MM.  If Pittsburgh needed cap space, he’d be a strong buyout candidate.

Signed Through 2029-30 Or Longer

None

Still To Sign

None

Buyouts

D Jack Johnson ($916.7K in 2025-26)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Carryover Bonus Overage Penalty

None

Best Value: (non-entry-level) Rust
Worst Value: Graves

Looking Ahead

For the upcoming season, the Penguins have plenty of cap space and as Dubas has shown, he’s willing to spend that money to add future assets.  With this being the final season of direct third-party trade facilitation, it wouldn’t be shocking to see that continue at some point.

At the moment, Pittsburgh has over $53MM in cap space for 2026-27 and over $87MM in flexibility for 2027-28.  Few teams have anywhere close to that, meaning that Pittsburgh is well-positioned to try to spend to get back into contention as soon as Dubas decides that it’s time to flip the proverbial switch.

Photos courtesy of Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images