PHR Mailbag: CHL-NCAA Movement, Salary Cap, Goaltending, Bruins, August 15 Free Agents

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include a look at salary cap spending, several goaltending questions, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in one of our next two columns.

BlackAce57: I don’t know if it’s something that’s been happening for a while or a growing trend, but are more Canadian junior players going to US colleges when they turn 18 now that NIL is a factor? Do you think this will keep increasing?

This isn’t something that has been going on for very long now.  It’s actually the first year where CHL players are no longer viewed as professionals by the NCAA, thereby making players from those leagues eligible to go to college.  NIL money aside, simply changing the eligibility to allow major junior players to go play Division I hockey was going to create a big group of people wanting to make the change.  The ability to potentially be paid much more than what the CHL-allowable stipend is (between $50 and $150 in Canadian dollars per week) only intensified that interest.

I don’t expect this to be something that keeps increasing to any sort of significant degree.  In reality, there are only so many spots available each year as there are only so many Division I teams and there will still be USHL and USHS players vying for some of those.  That means there has to be some sort of a limit on the movement in the grand scheme of things.

Having said that, I suspect we will see even more turnover in the NCAA than we’ve seen in recent years since the transfer portal came into play.  There will still be activity there while more players than we normally see will graduate to the pros after a year or two of eligibility.  Then, there will be efforts to try to get that top recruit which could result in some players getting cut.

I think what we’ve seen this year is the start but there shouldn’t be a huge jump next year.  I expect we’ll see an incremental jump in transfer activity over the next couple of years, a good chunk of which will probably come from the CHL before the volume of annual movement starts to settle.  In the meantime, it will be interesting to see if the CHL is able to do anything to retain some of its top talent or if it will settle in as a league that skews a little younger age-wise compared to what it has been in the past.

yeasties: With the cap going up so much and many teams apparently choosing to maintain a working reserve this year, do you think GMs will maintain this discipline over the long term, or will teams eventually spend up to the cap again?

I’m not sure how much of the underspent cap is something that came from a choice or rather just from a lack of options.  This wasn’t a great UFA class and it’s that market that has a tendency to drive prices upward.  Not every team has had to contend with it yet either.  If you had a team with a lot of core players on long-term deals already, the bulk of the heavy lifting cap-wise is already done, making it easier to have that cushion.  We’re only a few months into this higher Upper Limit projection so a lot can and will change.

It’ll be interesting to see how many teams are able to keep those reserves.  Per PuckPedia, there are 13 teams with $2.1MM or less of cap space already.  For teams near the higher end of that, even one injury can derail a lot of those plans and odds being odds, there will be injuries.  The ones with a million or two more (of which there are four) should have more wiggle room on the injury front while the rest should have ample cap room no matter what.  That is a little abnormal compared to what we’ve seen.

I do think it’s a sign of things to come, however.  The reality is that not every team is going to be willing to spend to the max as that’s a pretty significant year-over-year increase in player costs.  Ideally, profits should be going up as well to offset that but some teams are much more profitable than others; not all will increase revenues at a rate that matches or exceeds the increase in costs.  I can see a scenario a few years from now where we’re talking about budget room more often as fewer teams aim to spend to the ceiling and instead will work within a budget with potentially room to spend if they find themselves in contention.

I’m also curious to see what the impact of significantly restricting double-retention trades in the new CBA will be.  As a refresher, right now, teams can trade a player with retention with that player getting immediately rerouted with further retention to another team.  That type of trade has become quite common leading up to the trade deadline in recent years.  But this season will be the last of those as starting in 2026-27, there will be a 75-day in-season requirement before a player whose contract has already been retained on once can be moved with retention again.

Knowing that the double-retention option is going to largely be off the table, teams will need to have considerably more cap space banked by the trade deadline.  I expect that some squads will place a higher target on their cap room to start the season to account for that, meaning fewer will spend so tight to the cap.  So, I don’t think this is an outlier but rather the beginning of a new shift in spending policy, one that will take a few years to really establish itself.

PyramidHeadcrab: Now that rosters have settled a bit, who has the…

– Worst goaltending roster?
– Best goaltending roster?
– Best goaltending prospects?
– Goaltender most likely to find an extra gear in 25-26?

1) I’m going to go with Columbus, especially as a team that feels it has playoff aspirations.  Elvis Merzlikins has shown that he’s not a capable starter and hasn’t been for several years now.  While they re-signed Ivan Provorov and Dante Fabbro, they haven’t actually improved the back end which could have been a way to improve the goaltending.  Meanwhile, Jet Greaves had quite the finish to last season but before that, he had merely been okay in limited action while his AHL numbers are decent but not necessarily dominant.  Is he the solution?  I’m not certain about that yet and if you have questions about both goalies heading into the season, that’s not ideal.  There are teams with similarly iffy goaltending (especially in that division) but playoff hopes breaks the tie here.

2) This might be a surprise on paper but I’m going to go with Toronto.  Anthony Stolarz showed that his 2023-24 breakout wasn’t a fluke and he was quite impactful when healthy.  Joseph Woll wasn’t quite as impactful but was above average as well.  Both were in the top 11 league-wide in Goals Saved Above Expected, per MoneyPuck.  The fact that they’re among the lowest-spending teams at the position makes things more impressive.  There are teams with a better starter but also a much weaker backup.  An injury to the top dog would be a huge issue but for the Maple Leafs, going to Woll as a near-term starter wouldn’t be a massive drop-off.  Add to that a roster that looks more inclined to play a defensive game and it bodes well for them for the upcoming season.

3) For the single-best goalie prospect, I’ve seen no reason not to pick Yaroslav Askarov.  He has been highly touted for quite some time now and while he’s in for a rough year in San Jose this season, I think he can still be a franchise netminder.  But you said prospects, as in plural.  The Sharks would still be up there with Joshua Ravensbergen getting added in the draft but I might lean ever so slightly to the Red Wings who are headlined by Trey Augustine and Sebastian Cossa.  Cossa is coming along well in the minors while Augustine has been a strong NCAA goalie with a solid showing internationally as well.  Michal Pradel was one of the better goalies in this draft class and he’s in the mix too.  Goaltending has been an issue for Detroit for a while but the future looks bright there.

4) I’m going to pick Spencer Knight in Chicago.  This is his first season as being an undisputed number one goalie and he’s still relatively unproven with fewer than 100 appearances in the NHL.  It’s also a contract year in which he’ll be looking to cement the notion that he is their starter of the future.  I don’t think the Blackhawks will be particularly good this year but I expect Knight to steal some games and make the team a lot more competitive night in and night out than they have been the last couple of years.  I think that will qualify as finding that extra gear.

VonBrewski: Again with Boston….no direction by MGT.

They have the draft capital to go and get a McTavish or Rossi. They might need to move some salary (hello, Korpisalo) to get it done.

I think you’re making an incorrect assumption on this one.  Boston’s draft capital is better than what it was but assuming you don’t want them moving their own first-round picks, having an extra Toronto and Florida first-rounder isn’t good enough to be the foundation of an offer for either player, at least one that Anaheim or Minnesota might be inclined to take.  And with $2MM in cap space per PuckPedia, it would take much more than clearing Joonas Korpisalo’s $3MM to afford the players on the deals they’re looking for.  They’re not willingly signing long-term deals around the $5MM mark.

Let’s look at each situation a little closer.  Despite plenty of speculation, there remains no credible reporting that Anaheim has the slightest bit of interest in moving Mason McTavish or that McTavish is looking to be traded.  The absence of a contract isn’t evidence of that but rather the reality that an offer sheet isn’t coming and with no arbitration rights, it becomes a staring contest.  We see it every year with several players and they all wind up re-signing.  The Ducks have been active this summer in terms of trying to upgrade their roster with the hopes of making the playoffs.  They also have one of the deepest prospect pools in the NHL.  Accordingly, moving McTavish for a futures-based return doesn’t make much sense on either front.  If he’s moving, they’re getting a young core player back; they have no reason to accept less.

As for Marco Rossi, it has been reported that the Wild already declined a trade package that included a late-lottery first-round pick and that was before the few decent free agent center options had all re-signed or signed elsewhere.  So, why would they go that route now with a package that’s probably going to have a lesser pick going the other way?  (Again, assuming that you’re not suggesting the Bruins move their own first-round selections.)  Minnesota has been consistent in feeling that if they were to move Rossi, they’d want an impact center coming the other way if they couldn’t land one in free agency.  I don’t see a Boston middleman that fits.  Elias Lindholm’s contract isn’t great, Pavel Zacha only has two years left, and the rest are either unproven or are more bottom-six pieces.  For what they’re believed to be looking for in a possible trade for Rossi, I don’t think the Bruins are a match.  Ultimately, it’s going to be a staring contest between Rossi and the Wild for a little while longer before Minnesota probably gets its way with a bridge deal.

Dale M: How many August 15th expiring rights were either signed, or set adrift by their drafted teams?

Did Boston sign anybody?

If we look at our list of August 15th free agents from early July, not a lot has changed.  Chase McLane (Nashville) and Ryder Donovan (Vegas) remain with their respective organizations under technicalities but neither of them would qualify as notable prospects at this stage.  The other 29 players all saw their NHL rights lapse yesterday.

At this point, no one has signed yet which isn’t much surprise.  Players technically didn’t become free to sign until today and, well, it’s a Saturday in the middle of August; it’s not exactly a prime day for transactions.  There isn’t going to be flood of signings.  Honestly, I’m not sure there are going to be many signings period from this group, especially around half of them are on minor-league deals already.

There’s basically one headliner from this list that feels like a safe bet to land an NHL contract and that’s Dominic James.  He spurned an offer from Chicago on the heels of a 14-goal, 30-point campaign with the University of Minnesota-Duluth and his doing so suggests he thinks he can find an entry-level pact from a team with possibly a better shot at getting to the NHL quicker.  Beyond that, there are some possible AHL deal candidates (Red Savage and Aidan Hreschuk) but not much more.  It’s not a great group of players to get too excited about.

Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images.