Dustin Wolf’s first full NHL season was quite an impactful one. He became the full-fledged starter in the second half of the year and played an instrumental role in Calgary’s last-season playoff push, one that ultimately came up just short. He’s entering the final season of his bridge contract but the Flames have clearly seen enough to want to lock him up long term. Wolf told Postmedia’s Wes Gilbertson that talks on that front are underway:
They’re working, that’s about all I can really tell you. There’s talks, but nothing really confirmed yet. I’d love to stay here and I think they want me to stay here, as well. So as soon as something comes to fruition where both of us like where we’re at, I’m sure it won’t be long after that point where pen will be to paper.
Wolf played in 53 games for Calgary last season, posting a 2.64 GAA and a .910 SV%. His performance was strong enough to earn him the runner-up position in Calder Trophy voting for Rookie of the Year while he also received a third-place vote in Vezina Trophy voting for the league’s top netminder. That’s quite the solid performance for a player making $850K, making him one of the top bargains in the league.
While undersized for the modern-day goaltender, Wolf has been a top performer coming up. In the WHL, he put up a .935 SV% over four seasons, winning Goalie of the Year twice and taking home the CHL Goalie of the Year title once. Then, with AHL Calgary, he had a .926 SV% in parts of four seasons with them, again twice winning the award for being the top goaltender along with being league MVP in 2022-23. Accordingly, while there’s not an overly long NHL track record to work with, Wolf’s overall track record shows that he’s someone who can be relied on to be a key goalie for the long run.
Finding the right price point on a new deal could be tricky, however, given that he has fewer than 100 career NHL appearances. Wolf still has two RFA-eligible years left after this one so a second bridge agreement probably isn’t on the table unless it was a one-year pact in the arbitration window which is a long way away. Assuming their mutual preference is a long-term contract, AFP Analytics suggests that a six-year deal worth a little over $8MM per season could make sense. While several starting netminders have landed in that range in recent years, most have had much longer track records of NHL success than Wolf currently has.
On the other hand, with at least two more big jumps in the salary cap coming over the next two years, the potential price tag could go even higher if Wolf builds on his performance in 2025-26. On the other hand, if he struggles a bit, the asking price would probably come in below that projected number. With negotiations like this with relatively untested players, it’s about finding a spot where both sides are comfortable with the risk of a possible overpayment or underpayment. We’ll see if they can find that point over the coming weeks.
Conroy should tread lightly, Wolf’s statistical sample size is obviously small, This is where GMs really screw up.
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