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Prospect Snapshots: DeBrincat, Second Round, Sergachev

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Since Chicago Blackhawks prospect Alex DeBrincat was cut from the United States World Junior team in late December, he’s determined to prove that it was a mistake. When he was dropped, he was the OHLs leading goal-scorer and trailed only teammate Taylor Raddysh (who played for Canada at the tournament) in points. He hasn’t slowed down at all, scoring four more points today for the Erie Otters and extending his lead in the scoring race. He now has 92 points in 45 games and is a clear leader in goals scored.

The Blackhawks signed DeBrincat to a three-year entry-level contract earlier this season, and it looks like he’ll be making an impact in professional hockey as soon as he makes the leap. His 39th-overall selection looks like a steal now, as he’s about to post his third straight 100+ point season in the OHL and possibly help his team to a Memorial Cup.

  • Over at Fan Rag Sports, Hannah Stuart took a look at five potential second-round steals in the upcoming draft. It even includes one Erie Otter rookie who will be getting a ton of extra ice time next season when DeBrincat, Raddysh and Ryan Strome all leave for greener pastures. Ivan Lodnia, the Otters’ young sniper has 21 goals and 45 points in his OHL debut. She also mentions Boston University’s Jake Oettinger, who sat in the press box at the World Juniors behind Tyler Parsons and Joseph Woll on Team USA. Despite being ranked 3rd on Central Scouting’s goaltender list, Stuart believes big things are ahead for the NCAA standout.
  • The Montreal Canadiens are in the thick of trade talks all around the league, and Darren Dreger of TSN says that GM Marc Bergevin is “all in” on upgrading this season. That has sparked some talk about the possibility of dealing last summer’s first-round pick Mikhail Sergachev, but The Fourth Period has shut that down. The report says that while Sergachev is basically untouchable, Noah Juulsen may be in play when it comes to big upgrades down the middle for the NHL club. Juulsen is the captain of the Everett Silvertips in the WHL and was Montreal’s first-round selection in 2015.

Robby Fabbri Suffers Lower-Body Injury

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With the St. Louis Blues trying to build on their 5-1 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs on Thursday night, they have lost a key forward. Robby Fabbri suffered an injury on a hit from Carter Rowney against the Penguins tonight and will not return. He left the ice in considerable pain, and needed assistance from the training staff.

Fabbri let out some cries of agony you could even hear on the broadcast, as he put no weight on his left leg. This is not the same leg that he injured two years ago at the World Juniors, when he suffered a high ankle sprain in his right leg.

For the Blues, losing another forward will test their depth even more. The team already watched David Backes and Troy Brouwer leave in free agency, and have struggled through the first 50 games. Finding themselves just a few points out of a playoff spot, some wonder whether they will go ahead and deal upcoming free agents Kevin Shattenkirk and Patrik Berglund or hold on and try to make another run with the newly promoted head coach Mike Yeo.

Fabbri has taken another step forward this season after an exceptional rookie season that saw him score 18 goals. He has 29 points in 50 games this year and has been logging close to 16 minutes a night as he builds the trust of the coaching staff. If the injury is as bad as it looked, it will be interesting to see who the Blues move up the lineup. Perhaps Nail Yakupov, the former first-overall pick the Blues acquired earlier this year will get another chance to show he’s deserved of an increased role on this team.

Projecting John Tavares’ Next Contract

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True superstars don’t hit the open market very often. When Steven Stamkos got close enough to talk to other teams in the negotiating window last summer, it was as close as you’d ever expect a player of that caliber in his prime to get to unrestricted free agency. Stamkos eventually signed on June 29th, a day that will live in hockey infamy (due to the massive trades that also happened within minutes of the Lightning re-signing). Thus, it was technically an extension that Stamkos signed, as he’d not yet become a free agent.

This weekend at the all-star game, a player who has been linked to Stamkos for a long time made his feelings clear about a possible extension. John Tavares, the superstar center that has been mired in New York (and not that New York) for the first part of his career told the media that he’d be open to an extension come July 1st, and that he liked the direction the organization was heading. Now, whether or not you agree with him on liking the direction GM Garth Snow and company are headed in, it’s a big deal that Tavares would come out so publicly in support of at least a negotiation.

So the question now becomes what would an extension look like. Tavares has one more season on his current deal, which will pay him $6MM (with a $5.5MM cap hit) and contains a full no-movement clause. He signed that deal back in 2011, before he’d even turned 21. Now 26, any extension he signs will start when he’s heading into his age-28 season almost two years older than Stamkos was.

It’s with Stamkos that the comparison has to begin. The two were the first overall selections in back to back years, and faced each other countless times in junior. They were even teammates at 17 for Canada at the World Juniors, while battling near the top of the OHL scoring charts (with another future first-overall selection in Taylor Hall). Stamkos’ deal then is a good starting point for projecting what Tavares will get.

It’s that though that poses so much difficulty, because of their distinct situations. As mentioned, Tavares is due to hit free agency later than Stamkos and doesn’t quite have the resume of the Lightning sniper. As surprising as it may be, Tavares lags behind in most categories including individual awards and team success. The Lightning have been players deep into the playoffs, while the Islanders have won just a single playoff round with Tavares. Stamkos has two Maurice Richard trophies for the league’s top goal scorer, while amazingly Tavares has only come relatively close to an award during the lockout-shortened season.

Stamkos received an eight-year deal from the Lightning, with an average annual value of $8.5MM. Many saw this as a steal for Tampa Bay, as there were numbers bandied about as high as $12MM from the Toronto Maple Leafs. With the blue-and-white shadow looming over Tavares as well (another home-town boy) $8.5 is an interesting starting point for an extension. Even if Stamkos did take a bit off to stay in Tampa, there are only seven forwards who earn more on a per-year basis than him in the league, and four of them were just named to the NHL’s top-100 players of all time (and another should have been, but I digress).  While Tavares simply doesn’t have the numbers to approach Stamkos – he has scored .92 points per game to Stamkos’ .99 – many believe he is the better defensive player and doesn’t have the injury history that the Lightning forward does.

Anze Kopitar, a center who lags behind Tavares offensively but is considered among the best defensive forwards in the game just got $10MM per season for the next eight years, and it seems like that may actually be closer to what the Islanders will have to dish out. While the real number will likely fall somewhere in between, it’s not out of the question that Tavares could get the largest annual value ever should he wait to hit the open market. Like Stamkos before him a bidding war would likely open, and with the loss of that eighth year possibility (contracts are capped at seven years once a player hits unrestricted free agency), the AAV would likely go up.

For the Islanders, signing Tavares is obviously a huge priority. But after committing long term to Andrew Ladd and having $6MM tied up in an under-performing and rapidly aging Johnny Boychuk it won’t be an easy task. The team has a lot of money tied up in players that aren’t giving them a chance at the Stanley Cup, meaning this superstar may just hold out a little longer to really see what direction the team is headed in for the next eight years.

2017 Prospect Update: Patrick, Liljegren, Hischier

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Amazingly, the 2017 NHL entry draft is now less than five months away, and teams are starting to really dig into their draft boards to find that next superstar talent. The draft is an odd one this year, since the top two players have faced injury and inconsistency and didn’t take part in the World Juniors at all.

Nolan Patrick is still the consensus top talent and should go first overall, but has missed a huge chunk of his season due to injury. He make a triumphant comeback in early January with a four-point night, and is about to take part in the top prospects game tomorrow. The centerman from Winnipeg has 17 points in 11 games this season for the Brandon Wheat Kings, and will have front offices drooling over him come this summer.

An interesting connection is that of Kelly McCrimmon, who is now the assistant general manager in Vegas and was the GM in Brandon when Patrick made his debut. The Golden Knights have a chance in the lottery equal to that of the third-last place team, giving them a real chance to make him their franchise’s first selection. While his season hasn’t gone the way one had hoped, his stock hasn’t fallen nearly enough for him to be challenged for the top spot – yet.

That second spot is becoming a bit more contested though, with Timothy Liljegren not being the lock he once was thought as. The Swedish defenseman that some say has a ceiling as high as Erik Karlsson struggled in the first division before being loaned down to Timra. While this by no means hinders his development, with the explosion of a few other names it’s no guarantee that he goes second. Like Jesse Puljujarvi last season, if a team believes they have a bigger need a different position Liljegren may drop a spot. Anyone that gets him will be excited, as he can do everything on the ice and should be a star in the league for a long time.

With the top two prospects out of the World Junior’s, the stage was open for other names to impress scouts and perhaps vault themselves into the discussion at the tops of draft boards. Nico Hischier did just that, showing the world that he should be considered as one of the very top prospects in the world. Some draft boards likely already have him ahead of Liljegren, and his play for the Halifax Mooseheads hasn’t changed that. With 68 points in 40 games as a rookie, Hischier only turned 18 three weeks ago and is already a dominant centerman. He’ll undoubtedly set the record as the highest-drafted Swiss player ever, topping Nino Niederreiter’s fifth-overall selection.

One more name to keep an eye on is Owen Tippett. The young forward is currently second in the OHL with 36 goals and has elite scoring senses from anywhere in the offensive zone. He is flying up draft boards and may even make it into the top five by the year’s end. Though he plays the wing, he may even jump over center ice prospects like Casey Mittlestadt and Gabriel Vilardi, both of whom are projected for the top-10.

What To Watch For: AHL All-Star Game, CHL Top Prospects Game

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Once all the All-Star festivities in Los Angeles have died down on Sunday, hockey fans will be left facing the worst kind of Monday: one without NHL action. However, those with an eye on the future, interested in watching some future NHL All-Stars, will be happy to know that all is not lost. Both the American Hockey League (AHL) All-Star Game, featuring the best of the best of those on the cusp of being NHL regulars, and the Canadian Hockey League (CHL) Top Prospects game, showcasing the top 40 2017 draft-eligible prospects across the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League (QMJHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and Western Hockey League (WHL), are set to take place on Monday night. Here is a preview of what to watch for in these two talented contests:

The AHL All-Star Game, in the same mold as the NHL’s new model, includes a skills competition on Sunday night and a 3-0n-3 tournament between divisional squads on Monday night. Many current NHL stars got their start in the minor leagues and found All-Star-caliber success before taking advantage of their opportunities at the next level, and 2017 should be no different. So who are the future phenoms participating? Though he has yet to be demoted by the Pittsburgh Penguins, it is expected that Jake Guentzel will get to participate in the All-Star game and no player has had quite the impact that Guentzel has in 2016-17. Not only an All-Star, but also a first-year pro, Guentzel has made the transition from the NCAA to the AHL (and NHL) a seamless one. After scoring 46 points in 35 games for the University of Nebraska-Omaha a year ago, Guentzel has an almost identical 42 points in 33 games in the AHL this season. A player in a similar position is Guentzel’s Atlantic Division teammate Zane McIntyre of the Boston Bruins. McIntyre was promoted to the backup in Boston due to his amazing AHL success and has yet to be demoted, but is likely to get his chance to shine at the All-Star game. McIntyre is 10-0 in AHL play this season, with a league-best .951 save percentage and 1.41 goals against average in 12 appearances. The other Atlantic Division goalie, and Guenztel’s actual teammate in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton is Tristan Jarry, who has a .920 SV% and 2.22 GAA in 26 games. Yet another member of the stacked Atlantic team is the Philadelphia Flyers’ Jordan Weal, who has 42 points in 38 games. Outside of the Atlantic, St. Louis Blues prospect Kenny Agostino leads the AHL with 40 assists and 57 points for the Chicago Wolves. The 24-year-old is working hard for another shot at the NHL and will get the chance to further show what he can do at the All-Star game for the Central squad. Danny O’Regan of the San Jose Barracuda, who has gotten a chance to play in a few games this season for the team down the hall, trails only Guentzel in rookie scoring with 36 points in 32 games, while recent Arizona Coyotes call-up Christian Fischer sits in third with 32 points in 31 games and will join him on the Pacific Division team. Finally, keep an eye on defenseman Matt Taormina of the Syracuse Crunch, a Tampa Bay Lightning prospect who leads all AHL blue liners in points and will be dangerous for the North Division unit. The AHL All-Star game brings together the best players who are just an injury or slump away from making a difference in the NHL and it promises to provide a lot of skill and exciting action.

For those looking even further into the future, especially fans of teams with strong lottery chances in this year’s NHL Entry Draft, the CHL Top Prospects Game is for you. Featuring the best players in the CHL, the conglomerate of the three league’s that provide the majority of NHL talent, the All-Star game of sorts guarantees to provide an insight into at least 20 upcoming first-round picks. The game features Team Don Cherry and Team Bobby Orr, comprised of randomly selected players within NHL Central Scouting’s top 40 prospects. Captaining Team Cherry, and getting his first chance at real spotlight after missing much of the early season, is presumptive #1 overall pick Nolan Patrick. The big center has 17 points in 11 games for the Brandon Wheat Kings, but his limited action hasn’t stopped many from naming him the best available player. He’ll be joined by Owen Tippett of the OHL’s Mississigua Steelheads, the top-scoring draft-eligible player in the OHL, historically the best of the three leagues. Another OHL star and suspected top-ten pick, Gabriel Vilardi of the Windsor Spitfires, will skate with team, as will Maxime Comtois of the QMJHL’s Victoriaville Tigres, ranked No. 15 by Central Scouting. Rounding out the squad is defenseman Callan Foote, son of former NHLer Adam Foote and one of the top defenseman available in 2017. Team Bobby Orr will be headed up by Swiss star Nico Hischier, who excelled at the World Juniors and has kept it going with the QMJHL’s Halifax Mooseheads to the tune of 67 points in 39 games. Hischier’s alternate captains will be center Michael Rasmussen of the WHL’s Tri-City Americans, who has flown up the rankings to No. 6 overall, and another top blue line prospect, big Nicholas Hague, also of the OHL’s Steelheads. Other WHL superstars Cody Glass of the Portland Winterhawks and Nikita Popugaev of the Moose Jaw Warriors round out a deep forward group, while the OHL Spitfires’ goalie Michael DiPietro in net presents another potential first-rounder. There will be no shortage of action in this contest, the best option to see top draft prospects prior to their selection in June.

Nolan Patrick Tops NHL Central Scouting’s Midterm Rankings

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Despite battling injuries for much of the season, Brandon Wheat Kings center Nolan Patrick remains in the top slot on NHL Central Scouting’s Midterm Rankings.

Patrick missed 35 games with an upper-body injury, but has 13 points in eight games this season. He also missed Team Canada’s World Junior camp. While Patrick remains the clear top choice, he’s not considered a generational talent like Connor McDavid; Patrick is more in the range of a player like Eric Staal, who was the second-overall pick in 2003.

The list behind Patrick have been much more fluid than the top spot among North American Skaters. Here’s the top-five skaters:

1. Nolan Patrick (WHL)
2. Nico Hischier (QMJHL)
3. Gabriel Vilardi (OHL)
4. Owen Tippet (OHL)
5. Casey Mittlestadt (Minnesota High School)

I’ve previously written about Hischier’s ascent up the list after a great World Juniors. Hischier has 31 goals and 63 points in 37 games with the Halifax Mooseheads, where he is on loan from Switzerland. That gives the team that drafts him the option to play him in the AHL while not burning a year of his entry-level contract.

Vilardi is a prototypical big right-handed center with the Windsor Spitfires. He has 34 points in 26 games this season. Tippet is a big, fast, and skilled sniper, perhaps the best pure scorer in the draft. He has 34 goals and 57 points in 41 games with the Mississauga Steelheads this season. Mittlestadt is considered a big-game offensive player. While he’s a little more of an unknown, as he plays high school hockey, he’s committed to the University of Minnesota for next season.

Meanwhile, former top International skater Timothy Liljegren fell to seventh on NHL CSS’ list after missing time with mono. Liljegren is two-way right-handed defenseman, though its difficult to project a defenseman’s offensive ability based on SHL numbers with that league’s seeming unwillingness to hand out second assists.

TSN’s Bob McKenzie noted that the North American bureau did not devalue Patrick while he was out with a long-term injury, while the overseas bureau did drop Liljegren. Here’s the top-five International Skaters; all men are forwards:

1. Klim Kostin (KHL)
2. Elias Pettersson (SHL-2)
3. Lias Andersson (SHL)
4. Kristian Vesalainen (SHL)
5. Martin Necas (CZE)

Kostin is “big, strong, mobile, and has a good understanding of the game,” according to NHL Director of European Scouting Goran Stubb. Kostin has bounced around between different clubs this past fall, but is still highly rated based on his “dynamic” skill. Over in Sweden, Pettersson is the leading scorer of his Swedish-2 team with 27 points in 27 games.

The top goaltenders are Keith Petruzzelli of Muskegon in the United States Hockey League (USHL) and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen of HPK in the Finnish junior league.

Pair Of Major OHL Trades Made Ahead Of Deadline

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The Ontario Hockey League’s trade deadline comes down at noon Eastern time on Tuesday, January 10.

There have been a few notable names on the move, including a pair of Oshawa Generals: Anthony Cirelli and Mitch Vande Sompel. The Generals are known to make big trades, having previously traded John Tavares and Michael Dal Colle.

Cirelli had seven points in seven games for Team Canada at the recent World Juniors. He has 34 points in 26 game for the Generals this season. Cirelli is heading from the Generals to the Erie Otters to play with Team Canada teammates Dylan Strome and Taylor Raddyish, as well as Blackhawks’ second round pick Alex DeBrincat. Cirelli was a third-round pick of the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2015. According to TSN’s Darren Dreger, the Generals will acquire six draft picks (three second-round picks, a fourth-round pick, and two conditional sixth-rounders, all ranging from 2018 to 2024) and 2018 NHL Draft prospect Allan McShane for Cirelli. The Otters hope to make some noise in the OHL playoffs and hopefully win a Memorial Cup, something they weren’t able to do with Connor McDavid (who is actually still eligible to play for the Otters, despite leading the NHL in scoring).

The roving defenseman Vande Sompel is heading to the powerhouse London Knights. The Knights are the reigning Memorial Cup Champions. Vande Sompel is a third-round pick of the New York Islanders, and was signed to an NHL contract back in October. He has 37 points in 37 games this season, and has 158 points in 188 OHL games overall. The Generals acquire 2017 NHL Draft prospect defenseman Ian Blacker and a handful of draft picks, according to Jeff Marek.

Another notable name in the OHL who is thought to be available is Mitchell Stephens. Stephens, like Cirelli, is a Tampa Bay prospect who played well for Canada at the World Juniors. Stephens has 28 points in 22 games with the Saginaw Spirit, where he serves as captain. The 33rd-overall pick in the 2015 draft had five points in five games for Canada at the World Juniors.

Nico Hischier Making Case For Top Selection

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Electrifying Swiss prospect Nico Hischier is making quite the case to be selected first overall in the 2017 NHL Draft.

Hischier started the year outside the top-ten on Bob McKenzie and Craig Button’s lists, and 26th on International Scouting Service’s list. His play has been nothing short of spectacular so far this season, moving him up the majority of lists. Hischier has 23 goals and 48 points in 31 games for the Halifax Mooseheads, his first year in the QMJHL. In November, Sportsnet ranked Hischier the sixth best prospect in the 2017 draft class.

The shifty center was by far the best player for the Swiss team at the World Juniors, where he scored four goals and added three assists in five games. After Monday’s quarter-final loss to the USA, the American coach, Bob Motzko, called Hischier the best player he’s seen in the tournament.

Hischier has previously been labelled the “Swiss Connor McDavid,” though he doesn’t encourage the comparison. The Hockey News’ Ken Campbell quoted Hischier as saying “I don’t try to listen to this. I mainly try to focus on the hockey and have fun and keep working hard.”

Should Hischier continue his dynamite play, he could challenge Nino Niederreiter for the highest-drafted Swiss player in NHL history. Niederreiter was selected fifth-overall back in 2010. The 2017 draft is unlike previous years where there’s no franchise player like McDavid, Jack Eichel, Auston Matthews, or Patrik Laine. Only Nolan Patrick, Timothy Liljegren, and Gabe Vilardi appear to be locks in the top-five, and even then, not necessarily in that order. There’s plenty of room for Hischier to move past Niederreiter’s slot and make draft history.

Snapshots: Outdoor Games, Devils, Dubois

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News and notes from around the NHL this evening:

  • NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman announced today that the NHL expects to hold three outdoor games next season, reports ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun. The NHL is already exploring Ottawa as one potential site given the city hosted the first ever NHL hockey game—something the NHL wants to commemorate in its 100th anniversary. Montreal and Columbus also deserve serious consideration as they remain the most prominent and climate-ready locales yet to host an outdoor game. The expansion Vegas Golden Knights may garner some consideration if the NHL wants to give the franchise some supplemental exposure.
  • The New Jersey Devils are without both Travis Zajac and Jacob Josefson tonight against the Boston Bruins. Both forwards are out with undisclosed illnesses. Zajac leads the Devils in scoring with 8G and 16A in 37 games. Josefson, however, only has 2A in 16 games. Finally, defense prospect Steve Santini makes his NHL debut tonight. Santini is scoreless in 15 games for the Albany Devils so far this season.
  • Columbus Blue Jackets prospect Pierre-Luc Dubois was demoted off of Canada’s top line at the World Junior Hockey Championships prior to tonight’s Quarter-Final game against the Czech Republic, reports Scott Wheeler. The 3rd overall pick in 2016 has 0G and 4A in the tournament so far, but has not impressed the Hockey Canada coaching staff. Dubois is having an excellent year in the QMJHL, scoring 6G and 12A in 20 games so far this season. The top line now consists of Colorado Avalanche prospect Tyson Jost, New Jersey Devils prospect Blake Speers, and Arizona Coyotes prospect Dylan Strome.

Brandon Wheat Kings’ Nolan Patrick Returns To Ice

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In the upcoming entry draft, there are a couple of players who are considered locks to be in the top few picks. One of them has only played six games this season, yet remains the consensus number one option.

Nolan Patrick, the Brandon Wheat Kings’ superstar center, has been out since the early part of the season after re-aggravating the area that needed surgery in the summer. Patrick had sports hernia surgery after Brandon was eliminated from the playoffs, and admittedly came back a little early.

Though he hoped to have been ready for the World Juniors, he missed that deadline and is now just trying to work his way back to help Brandon this season. He got another step closer to that today as he took the ice just after practice.  He’s skated on an off for a while now, testing the injury at times with varied results.

As Perry Bergson of the Brandon Sun has said for a while, the rumors of Patrick not reporting back to the Wheat Kings were fabricated. While the team may still consider a trade of the young superstar – the team is 18-15 and a long way from winning a Memorial Cup – he will return to the team soon.

It’s an odd year for draft prospects, with Patrick basically absent all year and Timothy Liljegren, the expected second pick, struggling before being loaned to the lower Swedish league just yesterday. After those two, the field opens up to players like Maxim Comtois, Gabriel Vilardi and Nico Hischier, among others.

For Patrick, getting back on the ice won’t do much for his draft stock, but it would do loads for his development. Missing the majority of your draft year is never good for any prospect looking to make an impact in the NHL right away. Hopefully he’ll be back lighting up rinks very soon.

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