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Expansion Primer: Florida Panthers

at CDT | by 6 Comments

Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

One of the mistakes that is brought up most often in regards to the Vegas expansion draft was the one made in Florida, when the Panthers sent Reilly Smith to the Golden Knights to make sure they picked Jonathan Marchessault. That’s right, the Panthers traded away one top-six player just to ensure that they would lose another and provided the Golden Knights with two-thirds of a first line in the process. The idea was to protect players like Alexander Petrovic and Mark Pysyk, certainly not a decision that is looked back on kindly. This time, new GM Bill Zito surely won’t make the same mistake.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau (NMC), Patric Hornqvist, Frank Vatrano, Noel Acciari, Carter Verhaeghe, Mason Marchment, Ryan Lomberg, Patrick Bajkov, Aleksi Saarela, Anthony Duclair, Juho Lammikko, Brad Morrison, Lucas Wallmark, Sam Bennett

Defense:

Aaron Ekblad, Keith Yandle (NMC), Anton Stralman, MacKenzie Weegar, Markus Nutivaara, Radko Gudas, Kevin Connauton, Noah Juulsen, Gustav Forsling, Lucas Carlsson

Goalies:

Sergei Bobrovsky (NMC), Sam Montembeault

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Alexander Wennberg, D Brandon Montour, G Chris Driedger

Notable Exemptions

F Anton Lundell, F Grigori Denisenko, F Eetu Luostarinen, F Owen Tippett, F Nikita Gusev (UFA), G Spencer Knight

Key Decisions

Interestingly, the Panthers once again are faced with the decision on whether or not to use the standard seven forwards/three defenseman protection strategy. This time, it’s hard to justify going the eight-skater route, even if Yandle’s no-movement clause is going to force them to expose a valuable player from the blueline. There is just too much talent up front, and there’s no way they risk losing another Marchessault.

Things kick off as expected, with Huberdeau and Barkov leading the way. One has a no-move, but there’s no way either one would ever be exposed to Seattle. Beyond that though, things get a little more complicated. Verhaeghe broke out this season for 18 goals and 36 points in 43 games and will almost certainly earn protection, while trade-deadline acquisition Bennett seemed revitalized after bringing his talents to Sunrise. That’s four spots used up already, with the group of Hornqvist, Vatrano, Marchment, Acciari, and Duclair still to come. At least two of those players are going to be left unprotected, and it’s not at all clear which ones.

Hornqvist is the sort of in-your-face player that the Panthers targeted last summer, trying to add a little more bite to the lineup to compete in the playoffs. He had a good season too, scoring 32 points in 44 games, but is now 34 and costs $5.3MM in each of the next two seasons. He’s exactly the type of situation where a team might not want to lose him, yet wouldn’t be crushed if he were taken, meaning he may well be left unprotected by the Panthers.

Vatrano would have been an easy choice a few seasons ago, but recent acquisitions have dropped him further and further down the lineup. He averaged fewer than 12 minutes a night in the playoffs this season and may be deemed expendable despite scoring 18 goals in the regular season.

Marchment and Acciari are both still depth players, but the former showed an ability to move up and down the lineup while the latter is just a year removed from scoring 20 goals as a depth center. There’s a case for either one, including the fact that Marchment will cost just $800K this season and had a pair of goals in the team’s first-round exit.

Then there is Duclair, who has shown an ability to line up beside star players in the past and has excellent offensive upside. The problem is that he doesn’t have a contract yet as a restricted free agent, and could even be a non-tender candidate if the team doesn’t want to deal with a potential arbitration award. The 25-year-old Duclair also saw his role drop dramatically by the playoffs, where he failed to register a single point while averaging just over 12 minutes a night.

While there is a case to be made for several forwards, the defensive group seems much more straightforward, if only because of Yandle’s no-movement clause. Unless he agrees to waive it, the team will have to protect Ekblad and Weegar as the two integral cogs of their back end. The 27-year-old Weegar may still not be getting the recognition he deserves from some hockey fans, but there’s a reason why he ended up finishing eighth in Norris Trophy voting after an outstanding season. That means the Panthers will be exposing players like Gudas and Nutivaara, while not being able to protect restricted free agent Forsling either, who leapfrogged those veterans this season.

In goal, the Panthers will be forced to protect Bobrovsky, even if they probably would rather just re-sign Driedger and roll him out alongside Knight next season. There’s still five years and $50MM left on Bobrovsky’s deal, which would actually likely scare off Seattle anyway, but there’s really no need to ask him to waive the no-movement clause at this point.

Projected Protection List

F Aleksander Barkov
F Jonathan Huberdeau
F Patric Hornqvist
F Carter Verhaeghe
F Sam Bennett
F Frank Vatrano
F Anthony Duclair

D Aaron Ekblad
D Keith Yandle
D MacKenzie Weegar

G Sergei Bobrovsky

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (3): Noel Acciari, Mason Marchment, Ryan Lomberg
Defensemen (3): Anton Stralman, Markus Nutivaara, Radko Gudas

The Panthers have more flexibility than most when it comes to the exposure requirements, with so many players under contract for next season. Even if Acciari or Marchment are protected, names like Hornqvist or Vatrano would also meet the requirements upfront. On the back end, even if they can convince Yandle to waive his no-move, the last protection slot would likely be used on Forsling, who doesn’t qualify for the requirement anyway. Basically, these shouldn’t be an issue for Florida no matter what they decide to do.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Colorado Avalanche

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Free agency is now just a little more than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. The Avalanche have their captain to sign, but he isn’t even the most important deal they have to complete.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Tyson Jost – Not the first player you think of when you think of pending free agents on the Avalanche, but an important negotiation just the same. Jost, 23, is an interesting case study to watch this summer after signing his qualifying offer last year. For one thing, he is now arbitration-eligible, meaning the negotiation will be taken out of their hands if necessary, but the young forward has still not taken the developmental step that many expected. Selected 10th overall in 2016, Jost quickly became a regular in the Colorado lineup, but has failed to record more than 26 points in a single season. His average ice time increased this year to over 14 minutes, but he still had just seven goals and 17 points to show for it. Can he be a long-term piece in the middle-six, or will Jost try to maximize earnings by reaching free agency as quickly as possible? Because he has already completed four seasons, he’s just three years away from unrestricted free agency and won’t have to wait until he’s 27.

D Cale Makar – This is the player that everyone is watching in Colorado as he gets set for his first contract negotiation. Makar has played two seasons in the NHL and could very well have two major trophies to show for it. After winning the Calder in year one, he is a finalist for the Norris Trophy as the league’s best defenseman in just his sophomore campaign. There’s a very real argument to be made that he is the most valuable defenseman in the league right now and a contract indicative of that is likely coming down the pipe. As Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet wrote yesterday, any talk of long-term extensions will have to start at Thomas Chabot’s eight-year, $64MM extension in 2019 and go up from there. Makar (along with fellow young stars Miro Heiskanen and Quinn Hughes) is ahead of Chabot in terms of early-career success and any new contract could end up making him one of the highest-paid defenseman in the league straight out of his entry-level deal. Currently, there are only four defensemen in the league with an average annual value of $9MM or more; Erik Karlsson ($11.5MM), Drew Doughty ($11.0MM), Roman Josi ($9.06MM), and P.K. Subban ($9.0MM). If the Avalanche want to go max-term with Makar, that group is almost certainly going to grow.

Other RFAs: F Kiefer Sherwood, F Travis Barron, F Ty Lewis, D Dennis Gilbert, D Conor Timmins, G Peyton Jones, G Adam Werner

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Gabriel Landeskog – A second-overall pick steps directly into the NHL, wins the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie, and is named captain before his sophomore season. That’s how Landeskog’s story started, and ten years into his career he has established himself as a true franchise icon. Even though there have been other players that take the spotlight at times, the 28-year-old winger has been a constant driving force behind any success the Avalanche have experienced and already sits among the franchise greats on many all-time lists. Seventh in games played, sixth in goals, eighth in points, even if Landeskog doesn’t play another game in an Avalanche sweater, he has made quite the impact on the franchise. That’s why it seems so unlikely that they let him go at this point, especially after another outstanding season.

The problem is that there is only so much money, and given how big of a contract Makar is looking at, the Avalanche won’t be dealing with a ton of cap space. Landeskog scored 52 points in 54 games this season and is the kind of physical, heart-and-soul player that would be coveted by every other team in the league. If he wants to check the open market there will be plenty of suitors waiting to snatch him up. That includes the Seattle Kraken, who will get a chance to speak with him ahead of everyone else should Landeskog still not be signed by 48 hours before the expansion draft. It seems entirely reasonable to assume Colorado already has a deal done with Landeskog that will be announced after that expansion draft is completed, but until those papers are filed, other teams can certainly dream.

G Philipp Grubauer – Oh that cap space problem? Don’t forget that the Avalanche don’t currently have a starting goaltender for next season, as their Vezina finalist is also a pending UFA. Grubauer put together the best season of his career at the perfect time, recording a .922 save percentage in 40 appearances. Though he has put up those kinds of save numbers in the past, one of the biggest questions that followed him was whether he could carry the load of a true starting goaltender. Well, strapping on the pads for 40/56 games in a condensed schedule certainly answers that question, especially when it results in 30 wins. Of course, there was a few slip-ups in the postseason, which may cause teams to hesitate when drawing up a long-term contract, but there is still little doubt that Grubauer will receive a substantial raise on the three-year, $10MM deal he signed in 2018. Still just 29, he is Colorado’s best option and at the same time could have played himself out of their price range.

Other UFAs: F Brandon Saad, F Liam O’Brien, F Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, F Matt Calvert, F T.J. Tynan, F Mike Vecchione, F Sheldon Dries, D Patrik Nemeth, D Kyle Burroughs, D Dan Renouf, G Devan Dubnyk

Projected Cap Space

The good news: Colorado has nearly $25.5MM in cap space. The bad news: the rest is owed to just 11 players. Normally, players like Saad and Timmins would be front and center on any examination of pending free agents, but on the Avalanche they are secondary to the big fish that need new deals. GM Joe Sakic simply isn’t going to be able to keep everyone around to run back the same group in 2021-22, meaning difficult decisions will have to be made. Can they fit in a long-term deal for Makar alongside healthy extensions for Landeskog and Grubauer? What kind of cap space will that leave them with to fill out the rest of the roster? One important factor is the health and future of Erik Johnson, who ended the year on long-term injured reserve. He played just four games this season and though he skated with the team, didn’t appear in the postseason. His $6MM cap hit could be extremely useful to the Avalanche in other areas, but he’s also an important part of the leadership group in Colorado.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: Los Angeles Kings

at CDT | by 6 Comments

Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Los Angeles Kings have come a long way since the last Expansion Draft… a long way in the wrong direction. After winning Stanley Cups in 2012 and 2014 and topping 100 points in 2016, the Kings were still clinging to their hopes of remaining contenders when the Vegas Golden Knights made their expansion selections in 2017. It was arguably at that point that things began to unravel for the franchise. Even with four defensemen protected, all of whom were well worth it at the time but only one of whom remains on the team now, Vegas still stole from the blue line with the reliable Brayden McNabb. McNabb has been a fixture for the Knights ever since; meanwhile, L.A. has watched as protected players Tanner Pearson, Jake Muzzin, Tyler Toffoli, Alec Martinez, Derek Forbort, and Jeff Carter all departed.

After years in the basement of the league, the Kings are now on their way back to relevance, fueled by a few holdover veterans, a couple new core players, and a treasure trove of talented youth. Their Cup days may be well behind them, but there are brighter days ahead – and expansion will not slow them down. L.A.’s current roster has so few established assets and is so heavy in exempt young players, the Kings face little risk in the impending draft. By their recent standards, they will lose a good player and maybe even a young player, but by league standards they should be one of the teams least impacted. This is not a roster where the Seattle Kraken will be able to find their own McNabb.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Lias Andersson, Andreas Athanasiou, Dustin Brown, Michael Eyssimont, Martin Frk, Carl Grundstrom, Alex Iafallo, Boko Imama, Adrian Kempe, Anze Kopitar, Brendan Lemieux, Blake Lizotte, Matt Luff, Trevor Moore, Drake Rymsha, Austin Wagner

Defense:
Drew Doughty (NMC), Kale Clague, Olli Maatta, Kurtis MacDermid, Jacob Moverare, Matt Roy, Austin Strand, Sean Walker

Goalies:
Jonathan Quick, Calvin Petersen

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

None

Notable Exemptions

D Michael Anderson, F Jaret Anderson-Dolan, D Tobias Bjornfot, F Quinton Byfield, F Samuel Fagemo, F Arthur Kaliyev, F Rasmus Kupari, F Tyler Madden, D Markus Phillips, F Vladimir Tkachyov, F Akil Thomas, F Alex Turcotte, F Gabriel Vilardi

Key Decisions

The most difficult question for the Kings as they face expansion is the first one: what is their overall approach? A team that is currently straddling the line between rebuild and playoff pursuit. L.A. is loaded with talented prospects and certainly values their youth, but they are also loaded with cap space and have sworn to add more veteran talent this off-season. When making decisions on who to protect and who to expose, they need to decide what the next step for the franchise is. Will they risk established veterans, knowing it would be a step back in their return to relevance? Are they comfortable enough in their deep stable of prospect to expose unproven young players instead?

The x-factor in this whole conversation is young defenseman Clague, as the Kings’ decision on him will also determine whether they protect three defensemen and seven forwards or eight skaters, including Clague as defenseman No. 4? A well-regarded prospect, Clague has been given opportunities in L.A. but has little to show for it. The 23-year-old was a second-round pick in 2016 and was heralded as a skilled, puck-moving defenseman, but so far that ability has not appeared at the NHL level. Could Clague blossom in Seattle if the Kings let him go? Sure. However, they have numerous other impressive defense prospects in the system to replace him. Protecting Clague also comes at a steep cost: three forward slots. If Clague is not exposed, several other young forwards are.

Assume then that Clague is exposed as the Kings go with three defenseman: icon Doughty and affordable top-four defenders Roy and Walker. Maatta brought needed veteran presence and stability to L.A. this year and MacDermind is an impressive physical specimen, but neither is worth protecting over Clague, nevertheless three forwards.

Up front, the locks are simple. Star center Kopitar, the recently-extended Iafallo, and young standout Kempe are all safe. Beyond that, the final four names could be anyone from a long list (which is why protecting Clague remains a possibility however unlikely.) The first decision will be the most polarizing, as it pertains to the up-and-down Brown. A career King, Brown started to decline even before the last Expansion Draft and was left exposed as L.A. hoped they might be rid of his long-term contract. However, in the years since he has returned to form, playing at a 50+ point full-season pace this year for the third time in four seasons. Brown’s contract is also down to just one year, no longer a detriment to the team. If there were only four forwards to protect, this becomes a more difficult decision, but with seven spots it is likely that Brown stays a King for at least one more season, even if not all fans will be happy about it. His experience and leadership is invaluable to the young team and he would be an easy target for Seattle if exposed.

The remaining three forward spots are a more interesting debate. Athanasiou and Moore, though older than some of the other candidates, are still relatively young and entering the primes of their careers. Each played well in his first season in Los Angeles, recording a matching 23 points to tie for fifth in scoring among Kings forwards. With that said, both are restricted free agents as well and contract negotiations could come into play. However, neither player meets the exposure requirements to fill the quota and are superior players to the other candidates, making them useless to expose other than to distract the Kraken from other options.

The Kings do have four forwards that meet the exposure criteria, two of whom must be protected. Grundstrom, Lizotte, Wagner, and mid-season trade addition Lemieux all satisfy the exposure requirements, but which two should fill that position? There is some reason to believe that Lizotte will. The undersized forward earned a suspiciously quick extension after a down year, which could mean that the Kings had ulterior motives. There is also something to be said for the Kings adding Lemieux when the team already had physical bottom-six wingers in Grudstrom and Wagner. Lemieux also may have been brought in for expansions purposes. And yet, Wagner is probably the least valuable player of the group and likely to be exposed.

Grundstrom stands out as an outlier. The youngest of the group, Grundstrom was a 2016 second-rounder taken just six spots behind Clague. A physical forward with offensive touch, Grundstrom made the most of limited ice time in just 47 games to lead this group of four in scoring, finish among the top nine forwards in goals and points, and lead the team in hits. Grudnstrom is the favorite to be protected.

Of course, there is one more forward to consider and that is impending RFA Andersson. The 2017 No. 7 overall pick came to L.A. after struggling in New York and unfortunately found more of the same. He recorded just six points in 23 games, matching a career high but still falling short of expectations. A one-dimensional offensive player, Andersson is a difficult young asset to hand starts and ice time. Yet, his draft stock implies immense potential and at 22 years old he could still turn into a star elsewhere. Can the Kings risk giving him up?

In net, the decision is much easier than elsewhere on the roster. Despite his longevity and career achievements, Quick is currently just an overpaid backup. His play has actually been improving and L.A. may not be as desperate to move his contract as they once were, but there is no question that young Peterson is the current and future starter and will be protected.

Projected Protection List

F Andreas Athanasiou
F Dustin Brown
F Carl Grundstrom
F Alex Iafallo
F Adrian Kempe
F Anze Kopitar
F Trevor Moore

D Drew Doughty (NMC)
D Matt Roy 
D Sean Walker

G Calvin Petersen

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (3): Brendan Lemieux, Blake Lizotte, Austin Wagner

Defensemen (2): Olli Maatta, Kurtis MacDermid

At the end of the day, the Kings need to focus on themselves and what they know they have rather than what could be. Could a Clague or Andersson be selected by Seattle and become a great player? Sure. Could they also go to Seattle and not even be able to crack the roster, ending up back in L.A. or elsewhere on waivers? Of course. What the Kings know to be true is that they have the means to protect all of their main contributors from this past year, when the team took a major step forward, and that they have arguably the deepest and most talented pipeline in the NHL to replace any departing young player.

Whether it is taking a risk on a Clague or Andersson, adding a role player like Lemieux, Wagner, MacDermid, or Strand or swinging for the fences and hoping for a resurgence from Quick or Maatta, the Kraken have options. Their decision may be even harder than L.A.’s, who should feel confident moving forward without whoever Seattle lands on.

Offseason Checklist: Florida Panthers

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The offseason is in full flight with only two teams still standing.  We continue our series which examines what those eliminated teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Florida.

Expectations were relatively low for Florida heading into the season.  While GM Bill Zito made some changes, they weren’t expected to be a team that was going to contend.  However, they wound up being one point out of the Central Division lead and were only three away from tying for the league lead.  While they were ousted in the opening round by Tampa Bay, they’re still entering the summer with some momentum.  Here’s a look at what Zito should be trying to accomplish over the coming months.

Clear Out A Contract

At the end of their series against the Lightning, two of Florida’s three highest-paid players – goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky and defenseman Keith Yandle – weren’t even in uniform.  Anton Stralman, who is sixth on that list, cleared waivers during the season and had more of a limited role than usual.  That’s nearly $22MM on their books (about 30% of their payroll) either sitting on the bench or not living up to expectations.  On a team that isn’t spending to the Upper Limit already, that’s not ideal.

Bobrovsky’s $10MM AAV for the next five years is going to be difficult to move but if they’re willing to retain a sizable chunk, perhaps there’s a move to be made.  Chris Driedger is a pending UFA that they would like to keep around but as long as Bobrovsky and top prospect Spencer Knight are there, there will be better opportunities for him elsewhere.  Dealing Bobrovsky away, even at a loss in terms of taking back a contract and retaining some money, could allow them to try to keep Driedger around.

Yandle’s ironman streak remains intact at 922 games as playoff contests don’t count.  He sits 42 behind Doug Jarvis for the all-time record but that would appear to be in some jeopardy given that he wasn’t in the lineup when it mattered the most.  Both sides looked at the possibility of a change of scenery back in training camp when it looked like he’d be on the outside looking in and it may be time to revisit that.  With two years left at $6.35MM, it’s another negative-value contract but Yandle certainly can still contribute offensively as long as he’s sheltered in a lower role on the depth chart.  It’d be a swap of bad contracts but it might still be worth doing.

As for Stralman, he only has one year left at $5.5MM and he can still play in a limited role so he is probably the easiest to move of the three, relatively speaking.  A trade with max retention would be preferable to a buyout (which would cost $2.5MM in 2021-22 and $1.5MM in 2022-23) and could potentially still free up some money in the process.

As a budget team, there are already restrictions in place.  Those can’t be compounded by deadweight contracts.  It won’t be easy for Zito to accomplish but they can’t have that much money tied up in negative-value deals if they want to take a step forward.

Barkov Extension Talks

This is the biggest item on their to-do list.  Captain Aleksander Barkov is about to enter the final year of his six-year, $35.4MM contract, a deal that has been among the most team-friendly pacts around the league in recent years.  When second-line centers are getting that type of money, getting one of the best all-around pivots in the league at that price tag is quite the bargain.

That will soon change, however.  The 25-year-old is set to hit the open market next summer in the prime of his career and with it, his price tag is going to shoot up considerably.  Forget the flat salary cap and how it knocked down a lot of the UFA market back in the fall.  The top players still got paid pretty much top dollar and Barkov is very much a top player.  It’s rare that players like him actually make it to free agency so there will undoubtedly be a bidding war if he gets there.  He knows it and so does Zito.

As a result, expect Florida to put their best foot forward in the coming months to lock up their franchise player to a max-term deal at a price tag that will almost certainly hit eight figures.  We know cap space won’t be an issue since they’re not particularly close to the Upper Limit anyway but this is the type of player they need to break their budget to keep around.

The lingering question will be what do they do if they can’t agree on a contract or Barkov indicates that he’s not willing to sign, similar to what Seth Jones has done in Columbus.  It’s a scenario they certainly won’t want to think about but if it happens, Zito will have to react quickly to decide whether they should trade Barkov now or hope he changes his mind in-season.  But first things first.  Before even pondering that scenario, they’ll be extending a significant extension offer to try to keep the Selke winner around.

Add Defensive Help

The back end has been an area of concern for Florida for a while and that was highlighted even more this season.  Aaron Ekblad’s season-ending leg fracture was a huge blow down the stretch and the fact that Yandle and Stralman underachieved considerably certainly didn’t help either.  MacKenzie Weegar had a breakout year and Gustav Forsling logged nearly 20 minutes a game as a waiver claim but that was about it for positives.

The Panthers are in a spot where they could conceivably add two or three defenders this summer and it wouldn’t feel like overkill.  Deadline acquisition Brandon Montour, a pending unrestricted free agent, will need to be re-signed or replaced and at a minimum, adding a top-four piece would go a long way.

Florida landed the top player in college free agency in Matt Kiersted and he looked okay down the stretch but he’s not ready for full-time NHL duty yet; he’ll need some time in the minors.  There aren’t any other prospects that are ready to step into a regular role either so the improvement will need to come from outside the organization.

Re-Sign RFAs

Florida has a pair of intriguing restricted free agents on their roster.  Winger Anthony Duclair was a surprising non-tender by Ottawa last fall and had to wait nearly two months to land with Florida.  His qualifying offer of $1.65MM is certainly reasonable with the year he had but as was the case last October, arbitration eligibility looms large.  Back in the fall, the threshold to walk away from an award was $4,538,958 and while Duclair had a good season with 10 goals and 22 assists in 43 games, he shouldn’t come in that high.  Do they want to risk him being awarded something they’re not willing to pay and can’t walk away from?  With that uncertainty, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Zito push to try to get something done over the next month before the tender deadline hits.

The other interesting one is Sam Bennett.  With Calgary, it looked like the 25-year-old could be non-tendered over receiving a $2.55MM qualifying offer as he was unhappy and struggling.  Then came a deadline day deal to Florida and he absolutely took off, notching 15 points in 10 regular season games plus five more in five playoff contests.  That’s certainly a small sample size and it will make Bennett’s next contract a little tricky.  Was this a short-term blip or a sign of things to come now that he’s being deployed in a better situation?  Are the two sides sure enough of each other to do a long-term agreement or would a one-year contract make more sense?  At a minimum, he’s a safe bet to be qualified which wasn’t the case just a few months ago.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Chicago Blackhawks

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Free agency is now just a little more than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. The Chicago Blackhawks are one of those teams with numerous RFA’s of note, but fortunately few UFA’s to concern themselves with.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Brandon Hagel – Oftentimes when late-round draft picks produce big numbers later in their junior careers, it is more of a function of experience and maturity than an indicator of NHL ability. It seemed that way with Hagel, who recorded 102 points in his final season in the WHL, but played just one game with the Blackhawks in his first pro season in 2019-20. It doesn’t look that way anymore. Hagel recorded 24 points in 52 games with Chicago as a rookie this year, finishing fifth on the team in scoring. The 22-year-old earned increasingly more ice time and special teams responsibilities as he never slowed down. Hagel looks a like a two-way forward with 20-goal and 40-point upside and that is after only one year. Chicago would be smart to lock him into a multi-year extension before his stock can rise any higher.

F Pius Suter – Another European import, another home run. Just a year after Dominik Kubalik earned Calder Trophy votes as a 24-year-old in his first season in North America, Suter made a major impact in his debut as well. He may not be the same caliber of player as Kubalik, but with 14 goals and 27 points in 55 games he is assuredly an NHL caliber player. The Blackhawks need the depth at center too, where Suter was able to line up without issue. He may have been new to the league, but Suter did not play like a rookie, logging big minutes and finishing fourth in scoring. Chicago has nailed another free agency addition and won’t let this one season be the end of it. However, Suter’s age and arbitration rights give him far more leverage in negotiations than Hagel, a 10.2(c) limited RFA.

D Nikita Zadorov – Unlike Hagel and Suter, Zadorov is not an easy extension. He has a long, up-and-down history, failed to meet expectations in his first season in Chicago, and comes at a much higher price tag. He is also eligible for salary arbitration and has the NHL experience to make it a complicated case. Do the Blackhawks offer Zadorov a qualifying offer? Do they protect him in the Expansion Draft? Do they comply with an arbitration decision? These are all difficult questions when it comes to a player that is hard to peg. Zadorov has considerable experience, great size and checking ability, and plays the position competently enough to eat minutes. However, he also contributes little offensively, is a turnover liability, and is seemingly in decline already at 26. There is no easy answer when it comes to Zadorov, especially in light of the team’s salary cap issues, but Chicago likely will not want to lose him for nothing. By adding Riley Stillman this season, they do have a fallback plan if Zadorov departs, but they would likely prefer that to be on their own terms via trade. If the Blackhawks go through the effort to protect Zadorov from expansion and to negotiate a new contract, they need to be prepared to keep him if a suitable trade offer does not appear.

Other RFAs: F Josh Dickinson, F Adam Gaudette, F David Kampf, D Alexander Nylander

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Vinnie Hinostroza – It didn’t work out in Florida for Hinostroza, who signed a one-year with the Panthers last off-season but played a minor role in just nine games with the team before he was traded. Fortunately, he was dealt back to a team that he was familiar with in Chicago and his performance changed immediately. After a scoreless season in Florida, Hinostroza recorded four goals and 12 points in 17 games down the stretch, far and away the best per-game production of his NHL career. Hinostroza was active on the ice, meshed well with his teammates, and looked like a natural fit back with the Blackhawks. Although he excelled in Chicago, overall it was still a down year for Hinostroza, which could mean he is willing to re-sign at a low price. Yet, over the previous three years, one of which was with the Blackhawks, Hinostroza scored at a close to 40-point full-season pace and his play down the stretch implies he might be able to replicate those numbers if he stays with the team. There should be mutual interest in getting a deal done.

Other UFAs: D Anton Lindholm (Group 6),F Brandon Pirri, F John Quenneville (Group 6), F Zack Smith

Projected Cap Space

Given their salary cap situation, it is good that the Blackhawks’ impact free agents are almost all RFA’s, where the team holds the leverage, and not UFA’s, where the player holds the leverage. Chicago has over $75MM already tied up in 24 contract, per CapFriendly. That number is not exactly a realistic estimate as many of those deals are waiver-exempt entry-level contracts and the combined $10.775MM of Brent Seabrook and Andrew Shaw will be placed on Long-Term Injured Reserve, as neither will play again. However, that still leaves the Blackhawks with less than $17MM in cap space with the aforementioned Gaudette, Hagel, Kampf, Nylander, Suter, and Zadorov all in need of new contracts. That averages out to under $2.8MM per RFA starter, which is likely an unrealistic benchmark. The Seattle Kraken may lighten the RFA load for Chicago, but with Hinostroza also in need of a new deal and the Blackhawks ideally looking to add an impact two-way forward to assist with penalty killing, things are looking tight for the Blackhawks.

Expansion Primer: Minnesota Wild

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

In 2017, the Minnesota Wild protected three defensemen in the Expansion Draft: Jonas Brodin, Jared Spurgeon, and Ryan Suter. This left young standout defenseman Matt Dumba exposed (along with a number of other significant players). Yet, Dumba did not go to the Vegas Golden Knights. Why? Because Minnesota paid the price to keep him safe. Alongside selection Erik Haula, Minnesota also sent impressive young forward Alex Tuch to Vegas. The side deal kept their other players protected, but the Wild have watched as Tuch has blossomed into the power forward they foresaw when selecting him in the first round in 2014. It was a heavy price to pay.

This time around, Brodin, Spurgeon, and Suter will again need to be protected. They are each still top-four defensemen for Minnesota and now they all hold a No-Movement Clause as well, meaning that unless they waive that clause they are required to be protected. Again, this could potentially leave Dumba exposed, a scenario that has put the Wild back in the expansion spotlight more than any other team, seemingly since Seattle was introduced as the future 32nd NHL team. In reality, the Wild cannot and will not give the dynamic defender away for free, so they must find out how to protect Dumba within the confines of their current protection possibilities or else he will be traded.

The goal for the team this year is to find a way within the constructs of the expansion draft rules to mitigate the impact of their expansion loss, rather than forfeit another top prospect or pick in a side deal. With the Dumba situation driving their decisions, a deep forward corps to consider, and a tough question in net, GM Bill Guerin has his work cut out for him. However, the help of one or two veterans could be huge for the Wild in managing to escape this round of expansion without getting too badly hurt.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Zach Parise (NMC), Mats Zuccarello (NMC), Will Bitten, Joel Eriksson Ek, Kevin Fiala, Marcus Foligno, Jordan Greenway, Ryan Hartman, Victor Rask, Dmitry Sokolov, Mason Shaw, Nico Sturm

Defense:
Jonas Brodin (NMC), Jared Spurgeon (NMC), Ryan Suter (NMC), Matt Dumba, Brennan Menell, Carson Soucy

Goalies:
Kaapo Kahkonen, Cam Talbot

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Nick Bjugstad, F Nick Bonino, D Ian Cole, F Marcus Johansson

Notable Exemptions

D Calen Addison, F Adam Beckman, F Matthew Boldy, F Mitchell Chaffee, F Kirill Kaprizov, D Ryan O’Rourke, F Marco Rossi

Key Decisions

The first and most important question for the Wild is “can anything be done to change the status quo?” If unchanged, Minnesota faces a very difficult task of escaping expansion unharmed. However, if Guerin can convince any of his players with No-Movement Clauses to waive or can trade one of his otherwise-exposed players for picks and exempt prospects, that would change the calculus of the situation.

If you assume that the team must move ahead as constituted, it locks the Wild into an eight-skater scheme. As noted, Dumba is not going to Seattle for free so if he is not traded or another defenseman does not waive his NMC, then Dumba will be protected as the team’s fourth defender. This makes for a very difficult decision at forward. With just two spots available next to Parise and Zuccarello, Minnesota must pick two of three 24-year-old forwards who all finished in the top five in team scoring this season: Fiala, Greenway, and Eriksson Ek. Fiala, 24, is the most proven young scorer on the team, recording three 20-goal seasons and essentially four 40-point seasons in just five NHL seasons. His RFA status and his slow start in the postseason are unlikely to make a difference; Fiala will be protected. There would really be just one spot open at forward.

As for Eriksson Ek versus Greenway, the decision is much tighter. Eriksson Ek is the team’s top center and a great two-way, physical player who made great strides this season. Greenway has been the better, more consistent scorer so far in his young career and has made steady improvement each year. He too is a strong two-way player with elite power forward upside. It is impossible to know which player the team might prefer, but this much is certain: Seattle will not hesitate to scoop up whichever of the pair they must expose.

Assume now that a trade or NMC waiver allows Minnesota to employ a 7-3 protection scheme. In this scenario, decisions remain at forward but carry far less weight. Fiala, Eriksson Ek, and Greenway are all safe alongside Parise and Zuccarello. This leaves two spots left and number of candidates. Following the best per-game scoring season of his career, not to mention his contributions to the checking game and penalty kill, Foligno would likely be a lock. The remaining spot could go to Hartman, who increased his value with his transition to center this season, an area where the Wild lack depth. Hartman already earned an affordable, multi-year extension, as both sides seem happy with the fit. Rask outscored Hartman by one point this season and is a natural center, but his contract value and upcoming expiration both hurt his case. Sturm is developing into a good bottom-six forward, but the collegiate product is the same age as Hartman with a fraction of the pro experience.

Regardless of the protection scheme, there are two constants for the Wild: Soucy will be exposed and only one goalie can be protected. Neither is an easy pill to swallow. Minnesota paid up to keep Soucy when he almost left as a Group 6 free agent and the 26-year-old proved them right by continuing to improve this season. However, with a solid top four that they already have enough problems balancing in expansion, it is hard to imagine a way in which Soucy is protected. It is actually more likely that he could be traded before the draft. In goal, the team must choose between experience and stability or youth and upside. Talbot was brought in as a free agent this season to start for the Wild and he performed very well, especially in the playoffs where he started every game. However, it ended up being much more of a timeshare in the regular season, as young Kahkonen pushed for starts. The 2019-20 AHL Goaltender of the Year had some issues in his first NHL season, but has the makings of a future starter. After such a strong season, would the team mortgage the future in order to keep Talbot in place as their reliable starter? Or is Kahkonen’s potential too hard to ignore?

Projected Protection List

F Joel Eriksson Ek
F Kevin Fiala
F Marcus Foligno
F Jordan Greenway
F Ryan Hartman
F Nico Sturm
F Mats Zuccarello (NMC)

D Jonas Brodin (NMC)
D Matt Dumba 
D Jared Spurgeon (NMC)

G Kaapo Kahkonen

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (2): Zach Parise, Victor Rask

Defensemen (2): Carson Soucy, Ryan Suter

Taking some creative liberties here, the projected protections and exposures are based on the idea that Parise and Suter will take one for the team and waive their No-Movement Clauses for the Expansion Draft. The 36-year-olds (Parise will be 37 next month) are in decline, are paid $7.5MM+, and are under contract through the 2024-25 season, during which they will be 40 years old. There is no chance that the Kraken select Parise and little to no chance they take Suter. Starting a franchise with expensive players in their late thirties is not a feasible plan and Seattle GM Ron Francis is not one to take foolish chances. There is no risk to the team nor the players for Parise and Suter to waive their NMC’s. They’ll do it for the same reason they signed long-term deals with the Wild in the first place: to give their hometown team its best chance to win a Stanley Cup. After a season in which the club reinvented itself into a legitimate contender, the team is closer than ever to that goal and Parise and Suter are unlikely to stand in the way and cost the themselves a valuable teammate.

If this does indeed occur – and reason (plus some rumors) suggest that it will – the Wild are in much better shape with the Expansion Draft than previously thought. Minnesota could still go with an eight-skater scheme to protect Soucy rather than the likes of Foligno, Hartman, and Sturm, but it seems highly unlikely. The big defenseman has upside, but will never be more than a bottom-pair player in Minnesota. He will be an attractive option for Seattle, though. So too will veteran goaltender Talbot. A sturdy netminder who played well in his first season in Minnesota, Talbot would be a tough loss for the Wild but there are potential replacements on the free agent market. It would be far more difficult to replace the youth and upside of Kahkonen. For the Kraken, Talbot could both challenge for a starting role or could be flipped to another team with needs in net. Up front, the 7-3 scheme leaves little to offer Seattle. Rask’s cap hit is not worth his production, plus he’s on an expiring deal. If the Kraken are not enamored with Soucy or Talbot, young prospects Shaw or Bitten could be appealing, but would have to be considered worthy of a roster spot or else would be risked on waivers. They could also opt to negotiate with an impending free agent, with several notable names to choose from. However, Minnesota’s expansion exposure is not quite the guaranteed win for Seattle that it initially seemed.

PHR Mailbag: San Jose’s Defense, Seattle, Larkin, Islanders, Hamilton, Bruins, Oilers, Flyers, Laine

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include San Jose’s expansion situation for their back end, potential side deals and targets for Seattle, Dylan Larkin’s future with Detroit, how to free up cap space for the Islanders, Dougie Hamilton’s trade value, Boston’s drafting, Edmonton’s need for better complementary forwards, Philadelphia’s summer, and Patrik Laine.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

The Mistake of Giving Eugene Melnyk a Liver Transplant: Could Doug Wilson convince Vlasic and Karlsson to waive their NMCs and then protect 8 forwards/0 defensemen?

That’s certainly a creative idea although it would be tricky to do that and stay in compliance with the requirement for having two signed forwards under contract that played 27 games this year or 54 in the past two combined.  When Gavin looked at their expansion situation last week, they were at zero eligible forwards to begin with.  Adding an extra forward to the protected list is going to make fulfilling that particular obligation that much tougher.

But if they can sign enough forwards that qualify to do that, it would definitely be an avenue worth pursuing.  Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Erik Karlsson aren’t getting picked because of their contract and neither is Brent Burns.  That would certainly limit their exposure to either losing Radim Simek, Josef Korenar (as a depth goalie), or a depth forward.  If they can do that, they’d come out of expansion as one of the more fortunate teams in the league.

jdgoat: Who do you think works out a side deal with Seattle? Also, who will be the most expensive players they end up with?

Washington looks like a strong candidate given that they have to keep their cheap goaltending tandem intact.  There’s no way to protect both Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek and whichever one is unprotected would be tempting for the Kraken so a move will need to be made there.  Tampa Bay is certainly going to try to make a move to entice Seattle to take a pricey contract (Tyler Johnson seems like the speculative fit there).  Calgary could very well wind up leaving Mark Giordano unprotected but it’s hard to imagine they won’t try to find a way to keep their captain around.  If Minnesota can’t find a trade taker for Mathew Dumba in time, they’ll undoubtedly try to make a side deal as well to avoid losing him for nothing.  The same can be said for St. Louis and Vince Dunn.

I think the most expensive player they wind up with may very well come from Philadelphia.  Jakub Voracek ($8.25MM) and James van Riemsdyk ($7MM) could both be unprotected and would jump onto Seattle’s top line right away.  Both commitments are relatively short-term (three years for Voracek, two for van Riemsdyk) so there isn’t much long-term risk here.  I can’t see anyone more expensive than one of those two being selected.

pawtucket: Which UFAs should Seattle go after to compliment the plethora of 3rd line forwards and 5th/6th d-men they get from the expansion draft?

A lot depends on their plans.  Are they looking to win right away or are they eyeing a more gradual buildup which is what most expansion teams wind up going through?  If it’s the former, then they’re going to go after the likes of Dougie Hamilton and Gabriel Landeskog if they get to the open market.  If it’s the latter, however (and I suspect it is), then it’s all about short-term contracts.

Why?  Rental players are always in demand but in this cap environment, not having lingering obligations beyond the current season is even more appealing.  So if I’m GM Ron Francis and thinking more about two or three years from now, I want players that are easy to flip for extra picks or prospects to start building up their system.  They won’t have an AHL team next season but Palm Springs will start in 2022-23 so what’s a good way to start building that team?  By flipping a bunch of rentals at the trade deadline.

Who can still contribute to a team but will likely be stuck taking a one-year deal in free agency?  It’s a long list and that’s where Seattle should be shopping on the open market.

Eaton Harass: Any chance Larkin is available? He’d be a perfect fit for a team like the Avs or Rangers. They definitely have the pieces to get it done.

I don’t think Dylan Larkin is available or should be but I’ll qualify that by noting that I remember writing in a previous mailbag that Anthony Mantha wouldn’t be going anywhere at the deadline and we all know how that turned out.  Teams need capable veteran leadership and while Larkin isn’t exactly a veteran, he’s pretty close to one on this team.  He’s also young enough to be part of that next core which is still probably a few years away.  It’s worth noting that he’s an unrestricted free agent in 2023 and if he gives an indication that he doesn’t want to stay, then yes, move him.  But that feels like a discussion to be had next summer when he’s eligible for a contract extension more than one that needs to happen now.

I’m not sure either Colorado or New York would be a perfect fit either.  If the Avs are able to keep Gabriel Landeskog and Philipp Grubauer (both pending UFAs), they’ll pretty much be capped out re-signing their own talent (which also includes Cale Makar as an RFA).  Is Detroit going to take a return centered around Nazem Kadri for Larkin?  Probably not.  As for the Rangers, Larkin is a good center but is he a true number one?  That’s what they need.  If he’s in that tier that’s slightly below a top center, they already have that in Mika Zibanejad, assuming they’re able to extend him.  Sure, he’d be an upgrade on Ryan Strome on a long-term basis but I feel their top trade chips should be saved for someone that can be more impactful offensively or at least be guaranteed to be around longer than two years, the remaining term of Larkin’s contract.

Joe422: Nobody ever knows what Lou is thinking but the Islanders need to free up cap space to sign their RFA and resign Cizikas. What does Lou do? Trade Nick Leddy? What would he get back? A 2nd and a 3rd round pick? Could you also see Jordan Eberle being left unprotected and Kyle Palmieri be re-signed for less annual $ than Eberle?

Let’s look at that cap situation first.  Per PuckPedia, they have about $75.7MM in commitments to 17 players with, as you noted, Casey Cizikas and Kyle Palmieri among the pending UFAs while Anthony Beauvillier and Ilya Sorokin are among the RFAs.  Even with Johnny Boychuk being eligible for LTIR (allowing them to spend up to $6MM past the cap), you’re absolutely correct in that they need to shed salary.

Leo Komarov and Andrew Ladd look like candidates to be full-season members with AHL Bridgeport, clearing up $1.125MM in space for each of them though those amounts are offset by needing to replace them with someone making close to the minimum.  Still, there’s a few hundred thousand in savings.  Cal Clutterbuck feels like another possible cap casualty, either through waivers or even a buyout.  He plays an important role but he’s way too expensive for that role.  Ross Johnston could also be waived and farmed out with someone making the minimum replacing him, saving $250K.

I expect Cizikas will return at a lower price tag than $3.35MM.  He will be sought after by a lot of teams but most teams can’t pay fourth liners that type of money and that includes the Islanders.  If the offers are near the $2MM mark, he’ll probably stay put.

I don’t see Palmieri sticking around for a couple of reasons.  The first is that I don’t think they’ll leave Eberle unprotected and even if they did, does Seattle find his $5.5MM price tag for three more years appealing?  The second is that I wouldn’t be surprised if Palmieri covets a bigger role than what he had with the Islanders as he was more of a middle-six player than a top-six one (and while both of those involve the second line, I think there’s a distinction between the two).

I agree that Leddy feels like a cap casualty but how strong is his market?  They’d have preferred to trade him instead of Devon Toews a year ago so they can’t expect to get a similar return as they got for Toews for Leddy now.  If there’s going to be an expansion casualty, I think it might be him.  I like Leddy and he’s a serviceable second-pairing defender.  However, this is not a good market to be dumping money and he also is at $5.5MM but just for one more year.  If I’m Seattle, Leddy’s contract is more attractive than Eberle’s if it came to that.  While they’d need to replace him, they should be able to re-sign Adam Pelech and a Leddy replacement for that money (plus Pelech’s previous $1.6MM AAV).

Sorokin looks like a candidate for a bridge deal to keep his cost down and if they go short-term with Beauvillier (even a one-year contract), they can keep the cost manageable.  With the other small cap savings, they should be able to stay cap compliant.

mikedickinson: $8 million seems insane for Hamilton. He looked lost when Slavin was out during the Nashville series. As a Canes fan, what could we expect for compensation? Also, if Dougie leaves, any chance we make a run at Jones, if he’d sign for less than Hamilton?

The one downside to doing what they did by letting his camp talk to teams is that it took away any possibility of doing what they did with Joel Edmundson last fall, flipping his rights to Montreal for a fifth-round pick.  Why trade for exclusive rights when you can already talk to him?  If Hamilton doesn’t really want an eighth year on his contract if the money isn’t as high as he wants, the sign-and-trade isn’t as important either; he can get his seven years from anyone.

I can’t see the return for Hamilton in an extend-and-trade deal being too substantial.  The acquiring team will probably send a contract back to help offset the money and Carolina will be compensated for taking that salary offset on in the form of a draft pick or prospect.  I know that sounds underwhelming but unless Hamilton goes to Carolina and gives them a list of a few teams to choose from, it’s going to be tough to get any sort of bidding war going.  That’s what drives the trade price up and without that element, they don’t have a lot of leverage.

Knowing the emphasis that Carolina puts on their back end, I wouldn’t rule out a run at Seth Jones entirely but that’s an in-division trade for Columbus and I doubt that’s their preference.  But yeah, I think they’d kick the tires at least and someone like Brady Skjei, who has three years left at a reasonable rate for a second-pairing player, could be of some interest to the Blue Jackets.  I suspect they want to send him out West if they can, however.

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Expansion Primer: Montreal Canadiens

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

Back in 2017, the Canadiens lost Alexei Emelin to Vegas.  Unless they want to risk losing a notable forward this time around, history could repeat itself with Seattle likely to be interested in one of Montreal’s blueliners.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Josh Anderson, Joseph Blandisi, Paul Byron, Laurent Dauphin, Jonathan Drouin, Jake Evans, Brendan Gallagher (NMC), Charles Hudon, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Artturi Lehkonen, Michael Pezzetta, Tyler Toffoli, Lukas Vejdemo

Defense:
Ben Chiarot, Joel Edmundson, Cale Fleury, Brett Kulak, Xavier Ouellet, Jeff Petry (NMC), Shea Weber

Goalies:
Jake Allen, Michael McNiven, Carey Price (NMC)

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Joel Armia, F Phillip Danault, F Michael Frolik, D Erik Gustafsson, D Jonathon Merrill, F Corey Perry, F Eric Staal, F Tomas Tatar

Notable Exemptions

F Cole Caufield, F Ryan Poehling, G Cayden Primeau, D Alexander Romanov, F Nick Suzuki, F Jesse Ylonen

Key Decisions

The goaltending one is pretty easy.  Price will be protected and Allen, beginning a cheaper two-year deal next season, will be exposed.  He will certainly be under consideration by the Kraken.

On the back end, Petry’s no-move clause means he’ll be protected and while Weber’s contract could be viewed as enough of a deterrent to leave him exposed, his performance in the playoffs so far makes that unlikely.  It would be difficult for Montreal to leave their captain available.

If they go with the standard 7/3/1 scheme, that only leaves one spot left and a trio of interesting options to choose from.  A few years ago, Chiarot was a role player with Winnipeg and at the time he signed his three-year, $10.5MM deal with the Canadiens, it seemed like quite the overpayment.  Then he played his way onto the top pairing, a spot he maintained for a lot of this year.  He’s the only full-time skater to not record a point so far in the playoffs but he’s also averaging 25:37 per game, just one second behind Weber for the team lead.  Even though that’s not necessarily the ideal role for him, Chiarot would probably be one of Seattle’s better rearguards and with him being on an affordable expiring contract, he’s someone that could yield a notable return if they looked to flip him.

Then there’s Edmundson.  While his four-year, $14MM contract also looked like a small overpayment (especially considering the way the UFA market went), he played quite well with Petry this season and certainly solidified their top-four.  That has continued in the playoffs where he’s up over 23 minutes per game.  All of a sudden, his $3.5MM price tag for three more years could be viewed as appealing.

Kulak also warrants a mention.  His possession stats have generally been well above average but that hasn’t resulted in a lot of playing time, including in their playoff run.  But Seattle appears to be a team that is highly invested in analytics and viewed through those stats, he could be more attractive than Chiarot or Edmundson while basically being half the price.

Up front, there are four safe bets to be protected in Gallagher, Anderson, Toffoli, and Kotkaniemi.  Things get a little trickier from there, however.

The key to Montreal’s expansion strategy is Drouin.  Heading into the season, the thought of leaving him unprotected would have seemed unrealistic.  However, he struggled to score this season, scoring just twice in 44 games, hardly an ideal output from a $5.5MM contract.  He missed the end of the regular season plus all of the playoffs on a personal leave of absence, one that has yielded more questions than answers.  When will he come back?  Will he come back at all?  If he does, will it be with Montreal or will there be a trade request?  With the uncertainty surrounding his situation, his contract (which has two years left), and his struggles this season, Drouin’s trade value is arguably at an all-time low.  Would Seattle take a swing on the potential upside or would the questions scare them off, making it more beneficial to leave him unprotected?  GM Marc Bergevin will have a few more weeks to try to figure out the answers to those questions.

Evans is another potential wild card.  His NHL experience is relatively limited (just 60 career regular season games) but the 25-year-old did well in limited playoff action and is nearing a return.  He’s also signed for another year at the league minimum.  Center depth among unprotected players around the league may not be the greatest so a cheap youngster could interest Seattle GM Ron Francis.  Montreal might want to protect him but they’re a team that has a lot of unsigned players right now; to meet the requirement of two signed skaters with enough games played, he might have to be made available, especially if they don’t want to take the chance of losing Drouin.

Lehkonen is someone whose regular season potentially had him in that iffy zone of being qualified at $2.2MM with arbitration rights.  He’s undoubtedly a strong defensive forward but aside from his rookie season, he hasn’t been much of a goal scorer (although he did get the series-winner against Vegas) and the open market wasn’t kind to those players in the fall.  He has helped his value to the point where he’s probably protected in a 7/3/1 scheme but he could also be a capable checker for the Kraken if they protect the four defensemen.

Projected Protection List

F Josh Anderson
F Brendan Gallagher (NMC)
F Jesperi Kotkaniemi
F Tyler Toffoli

D Ben Chiarot
D Joel Edmundson
D Jeff Petry (NMC)
D Shea Weber

G Carey Price (NMC)

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (3): Paul Byron, Jonathan Drouin, Jake Evans
Defensemen (1): Brett Kulak

There are a few different ways that Francis could go here.  Adding Allen is certainly a safe decision; he isn’t a true number one but can still play 40-45 games and at $2.875MM, he’s on an affordable contract and would be part of the plans beyond 2021-22.  Drouin has the most upside but the highest risk of any of the skaters unprotected.  Lehkonen (who isn’t listed above since he’s a restricted free agent and the above group is only for signed players) would be a viable middle-six forward while Evans and Kulak are more under the radar options but could be picked as well.

For Montreal to switch to a 7/3/1 scheme, they need to get another forward signed.  Giving Perry a new deal and then exposing him with Byron (while protecting Drouin, Lehkonen, and Evans) would meet the exposure requirements but would also run the risk of losing Chiarot or Edmundson.  With the way they’ve played in the playoffs, whichever is left available could very well become the favorite to be selected.  While their mindset is justifiably on the Stanley Cup Final against Tampa Bay, there will need to be some decisions made soon on the expansion front.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Calgary Flames

at CDT | by 2 Comments

Free agency is now just a little more than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next summer will be more interesting for Calgary free agent-wise, but there’s still lots to do this time around.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Dillon Dube – This season was supposed to bring a breakout for Dube, and although he did set career-highs in goals and points, it certainly wasn’t the step forward many were hoping for. The 22-year-old forward saw his ice time fall once head coach Darryl Sutter took over, even sitting in the press box as a healthy scratch on occasion. Overall, he averaged less than 14 minutes a night in 2020-21, a far cry from the core piece that he is expected to become. In 51 appearances, Dube ended up with 11 goals and 22 points, still flashing top-six potential at times. But there is a lot of work to be done to gain the trust of Sutter and his contract this summer should reflect that. With just 18 goals through his first 121 games, Dube won’t be able to demand a huge raise and could maybe even be forced to settle for his qualifying offer, given he is not yet arbitration-eligible.

D Juuso Valimaki – The player that Dube shared the press box with on occasion? 22-year-old defenseman Valimaki, who was also called out by Sutter late in the season. “If they become better players, this team becomes better” was the eyebrow-raising quote from the head coach in May, after another Valimaki healthy scratch. The 2017 first-round pick ended up averaging just over 15 minutes a night in 49 games, putting him behind even depth options like Michael Stone and Nikita Nesterov. Because Valimaki missed the entire 2019-20 season due to injury, he actually will actually have even more restrictions this summer. He is not eligible for an offer sheet and is not eligible for arbitration, meaning just like Dube, he may have to settle for his qualifying offer if the two sides don’t work out a multi-year deal.

Other RFAs: F Glenn Gawdin, F Dominik Simon, F Justin Kirkland, F Matthew Phillips, F Luke Philp, D Oliver Kylington, D Connor Mackey, D Carl-Johan Lerby, D Alexander Yelesin, D Colton Poolman, G Tyler Parsons, G Artyom Zagidulin

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Derek Ryan – If Ryan is the most important free agent forward you are at risk of losing you’re in a good spot, but he’s actually an interesting extension candidate for the Flames. The 34-year-old center is still a capable penalty killer and you could do far worse for a fourth-line center, but his real value would come in the expansion draft, where Calgary needs players to fill the exposure requirements upfront. While it sounds like Milan Lucic will be waiving his no-movement clause to fill one spot, the team will need one of the other regulars from this season to sign a deal in the coming weeks.

G Louis Domingue – It’s not really that Domingue is a must-sign player for the Flames, but he represents a position that will need to be filled somehow. The team has Jacob Markstrom locked in as the starter, but they will need a backup goaltender that can help give him some time off or even take the net for a little while. David Rittich, who was supposed to be that option, was traded at the deadline, and Domingue likely isn’t the answer. While he does have a .904 save percentage in 140 NHL appearances, that number is boosted by some early-career stats. Over the past two seasons, he has posted an .882 in 18 games, certainly not enough to play tandem to Markstrom.

Other UFAs: F Brett Ritchie, F Buddy Robinson, F Josh Leivo, F Zac Rinaldo, D Michael Stone, D Nikita Nesterov, D Alex Petrovic

Projected Cap Space

One of the most interesting parts of the offseason for Calgary is how they deal with their big-ticket players who haven’t yet rewarded the team with much playoff success. The Flames have nearly $67MM tied up in just 13 contracts for the 2021-22 season, meaning they have less than $15MM to round out the rest of the roster. With Johnny Gaudreau and Mark Giordano set to hit unrestricted free agency next summer, Sean Monahan, and Lucic the year after, there will be money coming off the books in short order. If any of those contracts are moved out, the team could get a jump on things by being aggressive in free agency this year, knowing there will be a bit more flexibility down the road.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Buffalo Sabres

at CDT | by 6 Comments

Free agency is now just a little more than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Buffalo’s biggest question mark this summer is obviously the fate of the captain, but there are several other pending free agents that also need to be dealt with.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Sam Reinhart – The trade speculation surrounding Jack Eichel has somewhat hidden any Reinhart news, but make no mistake he is also being discussed around the league. Despite being just 25, the RFA forward will be an unrestricted free agent after next season because he has already played six full seasons in the NHL. While he has never quite lived up to the second-overall billing of true franchise-changing star, there’s something to be said for Reinhart’s consistent production on a lackluster team. In five of his six seasons, he has recorded at least 22 goals, even tying his career-high of 25 this year in just 54 games. Reinhart has blown the rest of the Sabres out of the water year after year in possession statistics, and there is a real chance that he could explode into a game-changing presence if surrounded by more talent. Buffalo knows this (or should, at least) and will be holding out for a high price, but there is a ticking clock on the pending RFA. Reinhart can simply go to arbitration with the Sabres this season, receive a raise on the $5.2MM he earned in 2020-21 and then walk if he decides to pursue other opportunities. That would be a real miss on the part of the Buffalo front office, meaning a multi-year extension or a trade seem like the only reasonable options this summer.

F Casey Mittelstadt – If only Mittelstadt had developed the way many expected, Buffalo may not be in the situation they are now. The eighth overall pick from 2017 has still not really established himself as a full-time NHL player, even if this season was a legitimate step forward. In 155 career games he has recorded 61 points, a tough total to swallow when you look at that 2017 draft board and see the likes of Martin Necas and Nick Suzuki selected just a few picks later. Still, there are still plenty of reasons to stay the course with the 22-year-old center and given the fact that he is not yet arbitration-eligible, the Sabres should still get him signed at a reasonable price. There is always the threat of an offer sheet for a young player like Mittelstadt, but in today’s flat cap world it seems extremely unlikely.

D Rasmus Dahlin – In fact, if there was a Sabres RFA to target with an offer sheet, perhaps it would be Dahlin. The first-overall pick from 2018’s entry-level deal is up and he now approaches a negotiation with 107 points in 197 games. Sure, there are real question marks around parts of Dahlin’s game, but the 21-year-old defenseman has still been extremely productive in his first few years. In fact, since he entered the league, Dahlin ranks 20th among all NHL defensemen in points, ahead of players like Zach Werenski, Seth Jones, and Aaron Ekblad. No, he did not have a good 2020-21 season, but the Sabres would be absolutely foolish to be doing anything but locking in Dahlin long-term as soon as possible. He should be part of the solution, not the problem in Buffalo. The question is how long will the player want to go with a contract, coming off such a down year? It does seem to make sense for Dahlin’s camp to push for a bridge contract and then really cash in after his offensive numbers rebound. That delicate dance is what Sabres GM Kevyn Adams will have to navigate as he tries to get Buffalo pointed in the right direction.

Other RFAs: F Rasmus Asplund, F Dawson DiPietro, D William Borgen, D Henri Jokiharju, D Casey Fitzgerald, G Stefanos Lekkas

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D Jake McCabe – Normally, McCabe would feature prominently in any offseason plans, given his place as a leader on the Sabres. The 27-year-old defenseman has played his entire NHL career in Buffalo to this point, totalling 353 games over parts of eight seasons. Unfortunately, McCabe suffered a major knee injury earlier this year, with damage to his ACL, MCL and meniscus. He was given a recovery timeline between six and eight months in February, meaning there’s a chance he’s ready for the start of next season, but who knows what kind of player is coming back. The Sabres should have the best insight into his recovery, so perhaps a contract extension in Buffalo makes sense. There is a feeling of dramatic change surrounding the team right now though, so cutting ties with a player who has been there through all the losing could make sense.

G Linus Ullmark – This is the real question among unrestricted free agents for the Sabres, as without Ullmark they don’t really have an NHL goaltender for the 2021-22 season. Partner Carter Hutton is also headed for the open market but is now 35 and coming off two brutal seasons. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is the obvious choice as “goaltender of the future” but has just four NHL appearances under his belt. The Sabres have been clear in the fact that they would like to keep Ullmark around, even deciding not to trade him at the deadline in order to continue negotiations. But there’s no deal in place yet, and free agency is creeping closer and closer. In 117 appearances with the Sabres, the 27-year-old Ullmark has posted a .912 save percentage. If he can play that well behind a poor team, there’s good reason to believe that he can be a legitimate playoff-level starter in the NHL. That of course will be known by his representatives too, meaning the Sabres will have to cough up more than the $2.6MM Ullmark made this season in order to keep him in Buffalo.

Other UFAs: F Tobias Rieder, F Riley Sheahan, F Drake Caggiula, F Jean-Sebastien Dea, F Steven Fogarty, F C.J. Smith, D Matt Irwin, D Brandon Davidson, G Carter Hutton, G Michael Houser

Projected Cap Space

The Sabres are one of the worst teams in the league and they also have a pair of terrible contracts on the books. Jeff Skinner and Kyle Okposo combine for a $15MM cap hit this year and next (with Skinner’s $9MM hit lasting long after Okposo’s expires), meaning the $34MM in space listed is a bit deceiving. That’s more than $47MM in salary committed to just ten players for next season and not many of them are all that good. With new deals for so many restricted free agents to come, the cap is going to become a challenge for Buffalo even before dipping into the unrestricted free agent waters. Of course, if trades for Eichel and Rasmus Ristolainen eventually happen, the financial situation looks a lot more reasonable.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

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