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Offseason Checklist: Washington Capitals

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league missing the playoffs and several more having since been eliminated.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Washington.

The Capitals tied for first in the East Division this season, extending their streak of consecutive first-place finishes to six years in a row.  However, they extended another streak this year as they were eliminated in the first round for the third straight season.  The core is mostly signed for 2021-22 and flexibility will be minimal.  Accordingly, it could be a quiet offseason for Washington although GM Brian MacLellan will have a few things on his to-do list.

Re-Sign Ovechkin

Let’s get the obvious one out of the way first.  The 13-year, $124MM contract for Alex Ovechkin that seemed outlandish at the time has come to an end and both sides did well with it.  The Caps got an elite scorer for pretty much the entirety of the contract and Ovechkin is now the third-highest paid player in NHL history.  It’s time for him to move higher on the list.

The 35-year-old is eligible to hit the open market for the first time of his career next month although no one expects it to get that far.  There is mutual interest in getting a contract done while Ovechkin will be acting as his own agent in the process.  Talks were put on hold during the season and playoffs but if they haven’t got going underway already, they should soon.

The big question is how much the next deal is going to cost.  A TSN report from Frank Seravalli back in January suggested that Ovechkin was initially hoping to match Connor McDavid’s $12.5MM AAV although that was before the pandemic hit and the financial landscape is much different now than it was projected to be back then.  He’s also coming off a quiet year by his standards; while he was still productive with 24 goals and 18 assists in 45 games, it was his lowest goal and point-per-game numbers since 2011-12.  At his age, there is bound to be a decline.  Was this a blip or the start of that drop?

That makes this contract an intriguing one despite the extreme unlikelihood that he actually gets to free agency.  How many years do they want to do?  It’s worth noting that he’s 164 goals away from tying Wayne Gretzky’s all-time record and it will take four or five healthy seasons to get there.  But Ovechkin has indicated that he wants to finish his career back in the KHL so does he want to play long enough to have a shot at Gretzky’s record?  And if Washington feels that the drop off has started, do they want to commit to something that long?  Would they prefer a two or three-year deal with the idea of another shorter-term contract after that at a lower rate?  Doing so would yield a higher AAV now but take away some risk.

There are definitely some questions to answer in this case and while Ovechkin has made it clear that he wants to stay in Washington, it’s a situation that MacLellan should want to resolve sooner than later with the domino effect that will follow once it’s done.

Clear Cap Space

That domino effect is the salary cap casualty that will be required to accommodate Ovechkin’s new contract.  They have just over $72MM in commitments for next season already and Ilya Samsonov is also looking at a raise in his first trip through restricted free agency.  The cap isn’t going up and $9.5MM in cap space isn’t going to be enough to re-sign them and fill out the roster.  It’s fair to wonder if that will be enough to keep Ovechkin alone.

Some trimming needs to be done over the coming weeks but it won’t be easy.  MacLellan will understandably want to keep his core players around (and moving big-ticket deals will be difficult in this market) so the savings may need to come from the depth.  Carl Hagelin ($2.75MM), Nick Jensen ($2.5MM), and Garnet Hathaway ($1.5MM) are all still serviceable players but they are a bit pricey for the roles they fill.  Moving a couple of those for cheaper players would give them some much-needed flexibility.  But even that will be easier said than done in a market where many teams will want to free up money.  Expansion could help if they lose one there but MacLellan will have his work cut out for him here.

Protect The Goalies

Speaking of expansion, the Capitals are a team that looks like they will need to make a side deal with the Kraken.  Both Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek are eligible for selection and there is no protection scheme that allows a team to protect more than one goalie.  One of them will have to be exposed.

Samsonov is coming off a tough sophomore year but is still their goalie of the future (and present) while Vanecek had a nice rookie season and perhaps more importantly, is signed for less than the league minimum for 2021-22.  For a team that is going to be at or over the cap when Ovechkin re-signs, that’s a luxury they need to try to keep.

A side deal could push one of the pricier role players to Seattle as well which would help their cap situation as an extra benefit.  But early indications are that those agreements will carry a hefty price tag, more than what a lot of teams are willing to pay right now.  For Washington, however, this roster composition only works with a very cheap goalie tandem so even if it seems costly, it’s a price they may very well have to pay.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: New York Rangers

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

If you picked a team that had the least painful expansion process the last time around, the New York Rangers may be near the top. They didn’t have to make a side deal with the Vegas Golden Knights and ended up losing Oscar Lindberg, a depth player who had averaged fewer than 11 minutes a night in 2016-17. Sure, he seemed like a useful piece, but he played just two more seasons in the NHL before heading back overseas. He’s now in the KHL, a long way removed from the Rangers roster. This time around, New York is still in a pretty strong position heading into the draft and likely will avoid losing a key player once again.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Artemi Panarin (NMC), Chris Kreider (NMC), Mika Zibanejad (NMC), Ryan Strome, Kevin Rooney, Jonny Brodzinski, Anthony Greco, Colin Blackwell, Julien Gauthier, Timothy Gettinger, Gabriel Fontaine, Ty Ronning, Filip Chytil, Pavel Buchnevich, Brett Howden

Defense:

Jacob Trouba (NMC), Anthony DeAngelo, Ryan Lindgren, Anthony Bitetto, Mason Geertsen, Brandon Crawley, Libor Hajek

Goalies:

Alexandar Georgiev, Keith Kinkaid

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

Phillip Di Giuseppe, Brendan Smith, Jack Johnson

Notable Exemptions

Alexis Lafreniere, Kaapo Kakko, Vitali Kravtsov, Morgan Barron, Adam Fox, K’Andre Miller, Zachary Jones, Tarmo Reunanen, Nils Lundkvist, Igor Shesterkin

Key Decisions

For the Rangers, who have started a rebuild since the last draft, the key is in their exemptions. The real core of the future in New York isn’t even eligible to be picked, meaning no matter who they choose to protect, the group will still have tons of talent coming back next season. That leaves really only fringe choices, just like when they decided to leave Lindberg–who was a regular in the lineup–exposed to the Golden Knights.

At forward, there are three players who have no-move clauses, but all of them would deserve protection anyway. Panarin, Kreider, and Zibanejad make the veteran part of the group upfront and are key pieces if the Rangers expect to compete for the playoffs next season. Chytil, who took a strong step forward this season, is a no-doubt choice for protection to make it four. There is perhaps an argument to be made for leaving Strome or Buchnevich available, given they each are scheduled for unrestricted free agency after the 2021-22 season (Buchnevich is an RFA this summer, but a one-year arbitration award would take him to the open market), but it seems much more likely that they both will be protected as valuable assets.

That leaves one spot for several names, with a case to be made for any of Rooney, Blackwell, Gauthier, or Howden. Many would lean toward the latter two because of their youth, but that doesn’t necessarily matter when a team is trying to make the playoffs in 2021-22. Rooney and Blackwell are both better NHL players right now than the two youngsters, meaning they could end up protected ahead of them. Blackwell especially showed he could be a legitimate depth scoring option for the Rangers this season, registering 12 goals and 22 points in 47 games. The fact that he is signed for next season at a cap hit less than the league minimum makes him a valuable piece.

On defense, things would have been much more interesting if DeAngelo hadn’t worn out his welcome so thoroughly. The 25-year-old defenseman was banished from the team earlier this season and is almost certainly going to be left unprotected in the expansion draft (if he’s still a Ranger by then). Trouba’s no-movement clause stifles any debate over his place on the list and Lindgren is an obvious choice after inking his new deal. Once again, that leaves just a single spot for GM Chris Drury to play with, and again it comes down to a decision between youth and experience. Hajek played in 44 games for the Rangers this season but wasn’t very effective, while Bitetto has at least shown he can handle a bottom-pairing role in the NHL.

Of course, these decisions are all subject to change dramatically should Drury decide to pull the trigger on a trade over the next few weeks. That defensive protection slot especially could be weaponized, if he decides that Hajek is worth risking to the Kraken. The Rangers could acquire another player that is at risk elsewhere, adding him to what is looking like quite the formidable defense group for 2021-22.

In net, there isn’t really a decision to be made. The team signed Kinkaid to fill the exposure requirements so that they could protect Georgiev. The fact that Shesterkin is still ineligible despite having already turned 25 saves them from a tough call.

Projected Protection List

F Artemi Panarin
F Chris Kreider
F Mika Zibanejad
F Ryan Strome
F Filip Chytil
F Pavel Buchnevich
F Colin Blackwell

D Jacob Trouba
D Ryan Lindgren
D Libor Hajek

G Alexandar Georgiev

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (1): Kevin Rooney
Defensemen (2): Anthony DeAngelo, Anthony Bitetto

By protecting Blackwell, it does create a bit of an issue for Drury to fix. The team would then only have one forward left exposed who have both completed the requisite games played and is signed for next season. A quick contract for any of Di Giuseppe, Gauthier, or Howden would fix that problem though, something that shouldn’t be too much trouble. For defense, DeAngelo can serve as that exposure requirement if he’s still around, or Bitetto can take his place if the team makes a move in the coming weeks.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: Philadelphia Flyers

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

Philadelphia was able to get through Vegas’ expansion fairly lightly with the Golden Knights selecting Pierre-Edouard Bellemare from them back in 2017.  But between their current roster composition and salary cap situation, there’s a chance a more notable player heads to Seattle next month.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Connor Bunnaman, Sean Couturier, Claude Giroux (NMC), Kevin Hayes (NMC), David Kase, Travis Konecny, Pascal Laberge, Scott Laughton, Oskar Lindblom, Nolan Patrick, German Rubtsov, Carsen Twarynski, James van Riemsdyk, Jakub Voracek, Mikhail Vorobyev

Defense:
Justin Braun, Shayne Gostisbehere, Robert Hagg, Philippe Myers, Ivan Provorov, Travis Sanheim

Goalies:
Carter Hart, Felix Sandstrom

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

Andy Andreoff, Brian Elliott, Samuel Morin

Notable Exemptions

F Wade Allison, F Jackson Cates, F Joel Farabee, F Tyson Foerster, F Morgan Frost, F Tanner Laczynski, D Cameron York

Key Decisions

There aren’t many tough decisions for the Flyers to make.  In goal, it’s Hart.  Yes, he had a bad season but Sandstrom hasn’t played in the NHL and Hart had two strong years before this one.  On the back end, they have three protection slots and three core defenders aged 25 or younger.  The math is pretty simple there.  But up front, there are some more intriguing decisions to make.

Typically, finishing tied for first in team scoring would generally make it a safe bet that the player who did that would be protected.  However, given Philadelphia’s cap situation, it’s far from a slam dunk for two of the three players that had 43 points this season (Giroux being a guaranteed protectee with his no-move clause).

Voracek has been a fixture in Philadelphia’s lineup for a decade with 604 points to his name in that span.  He still is a big part of their top-six.  However, his numbers have started to dip and he has only been a point per game player once in his 13-year career (the first three were in Columbus).  The 31-year-old also has three years left on his contract at a cap hit of $8.25MM.  That’s a particularly pricey contract in this marketplace, especially with the declining production.  His contract could be deemed too expensive to entice Kraken GM Ron Francis or, if he was selected, Flyers GM Chuck Fletcher would all of a sudden have ample cap space to try to bring in a replacement.

The third player that tied for the team lead in points is van Riemsdyk.  He actually had a bit of a bounce-back season while his point per game average (0.77) was the highest of his career.  There are similar arguments to Voracek though in that he’s overpriced in this current market at $7MM through 2022-23.  The 32-year-old also benefitted from the power play as 10 of his 17 goals came with the man advantage.  That’s a lot of money for a power play specialist, funds that could be redeployed to fill other areas on the roster.

Before digging into the other decisions, let’s quickly get through the other likely protectees up front.  Hayes is safe with his no-move clause while Couturier and Konecny are locks as well.  When Fletcher discussed Laughton’s contract extension before the trade deadline, he indicated the center would be protected.  Add Giroux to this group and that’s five of seven slots.  The remaining two could go to the pricey veterans or to some younger players.

Among their younger pieces, Patrick’s case is particularly intriguing.  The good news is that he was able to play this season after missing all of 2019-20 due to a migraine disorder.  The bad news is that he didn’t play particularly well, notching just four goals and five assists in 52 games while his -30 rating was tied for the second-worst in the league.  That’s not ideal production from any forward let alone one that’s four years removed from being the second-overall pick in the draft.  Patrick switched agents this year with his new representation believed to be tasked with evaluating if a change of scenery may be best for both sides.  All of this would suggest that the pending restricted free agent should be left available but he’s still just 22 and it’s hard to part with the potential upside for nothing.  It’s unlikely Seattle would pass him up.

Lindblom, who won the Masterton Trophy earlier this week, is also coming off of a down season, his first full year back after recovering from Ewing’s sarcoma.  Eight goals and six assists in 50 games isn’t a great return on a $3MM price tag, it’s also hard to evaluate him given how long he was off.  To expect him to return to the form he showed the previous two years would have entirely been unrealistic.  Does the benefit of the doubt get him protected?

Four players for two protection slots with cases to protect or unprotect all of them.  That is basically what Fletcher’s decision-making will need to be when it comes to Seattle.

Projected Protection List

F Sean Couturier
F Claude Giroux (NMC)
F Kevin Hayes (NMC)
F Travis Konecny
F Scott Laughton
F Oskar Lindblom
F Nolan Patrick

D Philippe Myers
D Ivan Provorov
D Travis Sanheim

G Carter Hart

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (3): Nicolas Aube-Kubel, James van Riemsdyk, Jakub Voracek
Defensemen (3): Justin Braun, Shayne Gostisbehere, Robert Hagg

Seattle has to take a minimum of 60% of the Upper Limit of the salary cap (which works out to $48.9MM) in existing contracts so there are bound to be some pricey players selected and it could very well be one of Philadelphia’s high-priced forwards.  Both van Riemsdyk and Voracek would give them a capable top-six piece without an excessively long commitment while becoming a nice foundational piece to work with.

If they opt for a cheaper player, Braun would seemingly become the favorite to be picked with an eye on flipping the final year (at $1.8MM) of his deal either before the season or at the trade deadline.  Vegas picked and dealt a handful of defenders in their draft and the Kraken may very well following a similar blueprint next month.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

PHR Mailbag: Tocchet, Expansion, Jones, Eichel, Buffalo’s Coaching Search, Maple Leafs, Ristolainen, Blue Jackets, Flames, Bruins

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There were plenty of questions to get to in this edition of the PHR Mailbag.  Topics include Rick Tocchet’s coaching candidacy, expansion rules, a possible fit for Philadelphia’s back end, Jack Eichel’s future, the coaching search in Buffalo, Toronto’s past GM move, the recent Rasmus Ristolainen to New Jersey rumor, the offseason ahead for Columbus and Calgary, and a Boston free agent scenario.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

pitmanrich: What has Rick Tocchet done in his head coaching career to warrant the interviews he’s had so far? (Rangers, Columbus, and Seattle.) His teams regularly miss the playoffs, he’s got an overall losing record, am I missing something? Surely there are more deserving coaches out there.

I am a little surprised that Tocchet has had the interest he has since parting ways with Arizona.  As you note, his track record wasn’t great with Tampa Bay or Arizona; a 178-200-60 record over six seasons with one bubble playoff appearance isn’t inspiring on the surface.

However, his reputation is that of being a good communicator and that is something that teams are showing more and more interest in.  The days of one approach fits all are dwindling fast and in both of his head coaching stints, Tocchet was lauded for how he can relate to players.  The same was said for his time as an assistant which helped him get that opportunity with the Coyotes.

It’s also worth noting that he’s coming from an environment that has leaned heavy on analytics.  Seattle appears to be a team that’s highly investing on that front so someone like Tocchet that is familiar with some of those concepts would be a bit more appealing.  And considering he has now had three interviews with them per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman (Twitter link), he has to be considered as a legitimate contender for that position.

If you’re a team that’s looking for experience but don’t want one of the ‘old school’ veterans like Mike Babcock, Claude Julien, John Tortorella, or Bruce Boudreau (to name a few), Tocchet is in that next range.  He has a different reputation than those bench bosses but still has a fair bit of experience – six years as a head coach and six more as an assistant.  That’s typically enough to garner some interviews.  If he doesn’t wind up with one of the remaining vacancies, he will undoubtedly come up as a strong candidate to take over a team midseason or next summer as a result.

mz90gu: How many games does an RFA have to play to be ineligible to be picked by the Kraken?

Free agency status doesn’t actually have an impact here.  Any unsigned draft pick or players with two years or less on an NHL contract are exempt while everyone else is eligible.  If you’re thinking about the games played criterion we’ve been citing in our Expansion Primer series, at least two signed forwards and one signed defenseman must have played either 27 games this season or 54 over the past two years combined.

However, players that have been signed for more than two years that haven’t played that many games are still eligible for selection; it doesn’t exempt them.  Teams merely have to expose that many players under contract.  As long as they’ve been under contract for longer than two seasons, restricted free agents are eligible to be picked by the Kraken.

Black Ace57: Is there any way to make a Seth Jones to the Flyers trade work?

It depends on how hesitant Columbus GM Jarmo Kekalainen is on trading a core player within the division.  If he doesn’t want to send a top defender to a division rival, that’s pretty much the end of that idea.  But that’s not very fun for a mailbag answer, is it?

On the surface, Jones isn’t a great fit considering that the Flyers have pretty good depth on the left side.  But it stands to reason that some of that depth would probably need to go the other way.  I don’t see Ivan Provorov being available in this scenario but Travis Sanheim is the type of player that should be of some interest to the Blue Jackets, a young defender with a couple of years of team control left.  That’d be an interesting piece.

I also wonder if they’d be open to moving Morgan Frost who hasn’t pushed his way into a regular role just yet.  A lot depends on if they can get extensions done for Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier; if they got them done early, Frost would potentially be expendable.  With the Blue Jackets’ situation down the middle, Frost would be of some interest.

Is that enough to get a trade done?  Perhaps not but that should be a reasonable starting point.  I suspect that they’re not looking for long-term future talent and instead would prefer guys that are ready now or close to being ready.  A rebuild is on the horizon but I don’t think they plan to go deep enough into one where a first-rounder that’s four or five years away fits the timeline.

We saw Carolina give Dougie Hamilton permission to talk to teams early about a sign-and-trade.  Jones is in a bit of a different situation in that he has one more year left at $5.4MM but since he doesn’t want to entertain an extension, he’s heading for an eventual exit.  If an extended Jones brought a better return, it would be prudent for Kekalainen to at least explore that option.

Busta607: Malkin and a 1st round pick for Eichel?

jeffh: What are the chances of the Ducks landing Eichel? I feel like they have the assets, but will them not being willing to move Zegras or Drysdale remove the possibility?

Also, who do you think the Ducks go for if they don’t land Eichel?

Let’s combine the Eichel questions together.  For the Pittsburgh proposal, there are a couple of hiccups.  The first is that is that they don’t have a first-round pick this year, particularly an early one which seems to be the expectation.  The second is that Evgeni Malkin has a no-move clause and there’s no reason for him to waive it to go to a bottom-feeder in the Eastern Conference.

On top of that, Malkin is only a year away from free agency and turns 35 next month.  Is that what a rebuilding team should be trading their franchise forward for?  Pittsburgh isn’t a great fit for Eichel; he’ll be heading somewhere else.

As for Anaheim, they definitely seem to be in the mix and have the high first-round pick (third overall) that gives them an edge on other potential suitors.  It will be difficult to do it with Jamie Drysdale or Trevor Zegras but that first rounder should yield a similar caliber of player if they’re willing to part with it.  If not, I don’t think they have much of a chance.  There are some other young pieces that should still have some value as a secondary element (Sam Steel, Isac Lundestrom, and Max Jones come to mind) and then some cap ballast (someone like Adam Henrique at $5.825MM).  If that third pick is in play, they have to be considered one of the contenders for Eichel.

As for who else they might go after?  It’s a pretty broad list – basically anyone that can score.  Anaheim needs several top-six upgrades and they’re not in a position to be too selective.  If a top-six player is available, they’ll be inquiring.

sabres3277: At this point, the Sabres coaching search seems to be centered on keeping Don Granato or hiring former Ranger coach David Quinn. Any thoughts on what direction they should take?? It is desperation time in Buffalo.

I don’t think either would necessarily be a bad choice given their situation.  Let’s face it, the Sabres aren’t looking for someone who is magically going to turn things around.  At least, they shouldn’t be.  They’re no closer to becoming contenders than they were years ago.  There are pieces in place but one of them looks like he’s about to be moved and it’s unlikely they’ll want win-now players in return.  What they need is someone that can raise the floor for the group and work on individual skill development.  A few years from now when they’re ready to contend (if all goes well), they’d probably be looking for that win-now coach at the same time.

Granato did a nice job down the stretch but it has to come with the caveat that it came at the end of the year when the games were meaningless.  Quinn, meanwhile, had some good moments with the Rangers but it’s telling that several of their youngsters didn’t progress as much as they would have hoped which is part of the reason they missed the playoffs and he’s on the look for another job.  That might be a bit of a red flag but he had success in college developing young players so that has to be kept in mind as well.  I’d lean towards Granato but I think Quinn would certainly help their program as well.

KAR 120C: When comparing Lou Lamoriello to Kyle Dubas, was it a mistake for Toronto to try new analytics versus old experience?  Considering where the Islanders are and the Leafs are not.

I can’t say it was a huge mistake based on analytics.  Not every team can be built the same way and who knows, a couple of years from now, the tide could have shifted drastically towards skill and they’ll be sitting pretty while the Isles are languishing a bit.

For me, the biggest difference would have been salary cap management.  I can’t see Lamoriello giving any of Toronto’s top-four forwards the contracts they have now, ones that are viewed as more player-friendly.  I think John Tavares wouldn’t have been signed and the savings between that and cheaper short-term contracts for the other three would have given them the cap flexibility to bolster their back end and lengthen out their forward corps.  In hindsight, that might have given them a better shot at playoff success than what they’ve had since then.  To me, that’s a bigger issue than the usage of analytics.

Having said that, it’s also important to keep in mind that other teams were sniffing around Dubas; he wasn’t going to stay an assistant GM for much longer.  Lamoriello’s GM contract was up and he was 75 at the time.  Dubas was 32.  Mark Hunter was also in the mix as well at the time.  From an asset management standpoint, the safer play was to keep the up-and-coming executive which is what they did.

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Offseason Checklist: St. Louis Blues

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league missing the playoffs and several more having since been eliminated.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at St. Louis.

While the Blues managed to secure the final playoff spot in the West Division, it was a bit of a tough year for them.  On paper, the roster was good enough to be a threat but it didn’t materialize into much success and they were swept by Colorado in the opening round.  With a lot of money coming off the books this summer, GM Doug Armstrong will have an opportunity to reshape his team (or keep most of it intact if he prefers that option).  Here is a look at what will be on his to-do list this summer.

Berube Decision

While we saw several teams go with a coach in the final year of their contract, that isn’t always the case as some teams want to at least get a small extension in place to avoid any potential for distraction.  Head coach Craig Berube will be in the final season of the three-year deal he signed after having the interim tag removed following their Stanley Cup victory in 2019.

Armstrong will need to decide if he’s comfortable with Berube being the head coach beyond next season and if so, they may as well try to work a deal out now.  Or, if he’s uncertain about if he is the ideal long-term fit (two first-round exits could raise some questions on that front), he will need to decide if he’s comfortable starting the season with Berube on the final year of his deal.  With several teams doing that this year, it will be easier to justify that option if Armstrong decides to wait a little longer before making that call.

Re-Sign Or Replace Schwartz

Jaden Schwartz has been a regular in St. Louis’ lineup for the better part of a decade now.  He certainly has battled injuries at times but he has five seasons of 55 or more points under his belt and is a valuable part of their top-six.  The 28-year-old is set to hit the open market for the first time this summer and his case should be one of the more interesting ones around the league.

2020-21 was not a good season at all for Schwartz.  He had just eight goals and 13 assists in 40 games this season, per-game rates that were only higher than his rookie season when he was only playing a dozen minutes a night in a limited role.  That certainly doesn’t provide a great case for a raise.  However, three of those 55-point or more campaigns came in three of the four previous years so there is definitely some track record of recent success.

A couple of years ago, Schwartz would have been in line for a long-term deal around his $5.35MM cap hit that he had this season and probably a little bit higher.  However, the UFA market was tough on most wingers last fall and with teams in a similar cap crunch now, it seems likely that this will be the case again this summer.  All of a sudden, there’s a definite possibility that Schwartz is facing a reduction in pay.

If they’re unable to come to terms on a new deal, Armstrong could pivot to someone like Mike Hoffman, another Blues UFA.  It’s unlikely they’ll be able to afford to keep both but if Schwartz decides to move on, they could have his replacement in-house already.

Dunn Deal

Vince Dunn is no stranger to trade speculation.  The 24-year-old has basically been there for a couple of years now to the point where it was well-known early in the season that he was available.  While his point total went down last season (not just due to the pandemic), he did very quietly turn things around on that front, collecting 20 points in 43 games this year, numbers that if extrapolated over an 82-game season, would have been the best of his young career.

How things got to this point is certainly a little odd.  While he isn’t the best in his own zone, he’s a strong skater and puck-mover, elements that are more important from the back end now and he even stepped into more of a top-four role this season.  On the surface, it would seem like he’s the type of player that should be a core piece, not a trade chip for basically half of his NHL career.

It also should be noted that expansion could be playing a role here.  Colton Parayko is a lock to be protected (and is someone that the Blues undoubtedly will be talking about an extension with when he’s eligible to sign one in late July) as is Torey Krug.  If they’re only protecting three, that last spot will be Dunn, Justin Faulk (who had a nice bounce-back season after a tough first year in St. Louis), and Marco Scandella.  If Armstrong would rather protect one of the latter two, it makes more sense to find a trade taker for Dunn before protection lists are due.

Even if they don’t do the trade route, there’s still work to be done for Dunn as he is once again a restricted free agent, this time with salary arbitration.  Last time, the Blues held the cards as they had limited cap space and Dunn didn’t have the ability to file for a hearing and they were able to get an affordable one-year deal out of it.  This time around, Dunn will be well-positioned for a sizable raise although it remains to be seen which team will be the one giving it to him.

Add A Veteran Goaltender

For several years, Ville Husso was viewed as the goalie of the future for the Blues and was even ahead of Jordan Binnington on the organizational depth chart at one point (which has clearly changed since then).  With Jake Allen being traded to Montreal in a cap-saving move last year, Husso finally had an opportunity to be the backup goaltender.

However, it didn’t go particularly well.  The 26-year-old posted a save percentage of just .893 with a GAA of 3.20 in 17 games this season, numbers that didn’t reach the league average on both fronts.  It’s certainly possible that he can improve – he has had some very strong seasons in the minors – but it would be risky to have him as the uncontested backup heading into next season as well.

Part of the allure in having Husso as the backup is a cap hit that will be at the league minimum next year which frees up money to spend elsewhere.  Bringing in a more proven option could cost another couple of million and with over $66MM committed already and a few notable players needing new deals, it could be a tight squeeze to manage.  If it’s one they can’t afford in their salary structure, then at least bringing in a veteran that could start in the minors but could push for playing time would be a reasonable backup plan.  It could be a small addition that goes under the radar but would still be a useful one.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: Pittsburgh Penguins

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

The last time the Penguins faced an expansion draft, they ended up making what in hindsight looks like one of the biggest mistakes in Jim Rutherford’s time as general manager. The team decided to keep young Matt Murray over the more expensive veteran Marc-Andre Fleury, sending a 2020 second-round pick to Vegas just to make sure their franchise goaltender ended up a Golden Knight. All that Fleury has done since is put up a .917 save percentage and win 28 postseason games, while the Penguins quickly moved on from Murray after some injuries and inconsistencies.

Now helmed by Ron Hextall, the Penguins are in another tough expansion draft situation and look poised to lose a good player once again. Perhaps this time they won’t send a high draft pick along for the ride.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Evgeni Malkin (NMC), Sidney Crosby (NMC), Jake Guentzel, Jason Zucker, Brandon Tanev, Bryan Rust, Kasperi Kapanen, Jared McCann, Jeff Carter, Sam Lafferty, Anthony Angello, Zach Aston-Reese, Mark Jankowski, Teddy Blueger, Pontus Aberg, Sam Miletic

Defense:

Kris Letang (NMC), Mike Matheson, Brian Dumoulin, Marcus Pettersson, Juuso Riikola, Chad Ruhwedel, Mark Friedman, Jesper Lindgren

Goalies:

Tristan Jarry, Casey DeSmith

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

Frederick Gaudreau, Colton Sceviour, Evan Rodrigues, Cody Ceci

Notable Exemptions

Drew O’Connor, Radim Zohorna, Samuel Poulin, John Marino, Pierre-Olivier Joseph

Key Decisions

Just looking at the number of key players the Penguins need to protect it’s obvious that they are not in a great situation when it comes to the expansion draft. That’s what happens when almost none of your impact roster spots are filled by young talent which would be exempt. Of the 22 players (goaltenders included) that appeared in at least 20 games for the Penguins this season, just one–Marino–was under the age of 24. Even he crossed that threshold a month ago but is saved by the fact that he did his developing in the NCAA ranks instead of the minors.

There are huge decisions to be made at each position for the Penguins. At forward, Malkin, Crosby, Kapanen, and Guentzel are easy choices, but even past that it becomes a little hazier. Rust is an important part of the team but has just one year left before unrestricted free agency, which the Penguins may not be able to afford. McCann is also due for a new contract after next season, though he will be through arbitration-eligible restricted free agency and is a strong candidate for protection. That’s six names already with Zucker, Tanev, Carter, and Blueger still to go.

The final spot, if the Penguins decide to protect those first six (which is certainly not a guarantee), could be debated for hours. Carter played extremely well after a trade from Los Angeles and has a long history with Hextall. The idea that he may retire if sent somewhere he doesn’t want to play has been floated out there so many times that the Kraken may be wary of selecting him anyway. Blueger has turned into a valuable checking center for the team and could likely be signed to a reasonable contract, but is also just a year away from unrestricted free agency. Tanev is a beloved bottom-six wrecking ball, but wasn’t signed to that six-year $21MM deal by the new management group and provides very little offensive production. Zucker, for all his skill, is coming off a brutal season and costs $5.5MM against the cap. In a tight financial situation, the Kraken taking him off the Penguins’ hands wouldn’t be the worst outcome.

On defense, there are just more question marks. Letang and Dumoulin are obvious choices for protection, with the former’s no-movement clause taking the decision out of Hextall’s hands anyway. The third spot though is up for debate, with several players potentially grabbing it. Matheson rediscovered his game in Pittsburgh this season, but is on a hefty contract that runs through the 2026-27 season. Pettersson took a step back in 2020-21, but has shown an ability to contribute in the top-four in the past. Even Friedman, who goes back quite a way with Hextall, could be seen as someone to keep in the fold as a relatively young depth option. The 25-year-old actually carries a cap hit less than the league minimum for next season.

In net, the enigma that is Jarry should be the one getting protected, but after an embarrassing playoff performance, there’s no guarantee he does. In fact, DeSmith’s $1.25MM cap hit next season actually looks like a better value contract, especially if the Penguins’ brass is looking to find a new starting goaltender anyway. Exposing Jarry may actually also draw some attention away from the forward group, given his previous status as a top up-and-coming netminder. One thing that might factor in here is DeSmith’s recent core muscle surgery, which the Penguins would obviously know more about than anyone else in the league.

Projected Protection List

F Evgeni Malkin
F Sidney Crosby
F Jake Guentzel
F Brandon Tanev
F Bryan Rust
F Kasperi Kapanen
F Jared McCann

D Kris Letang
D Brian Dumoulin
D Mike Matheson

G Tristan Jarry

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (3): Jason Zucker, Jeff Carter, Sam Lafferty
Defensemen (2): Marcus Pettersson, Chad Ruhwedel

The Penguins have more than enough forwards that meet the requirements, even if they decided to protect the likes of Zucker and Carter instead of someone else. There shouldn’t be a problem here unless they start trading people out before the draft. The same can be said about the defense, where Ruhwedel will be available basically no matter what happens with the protection decisions.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: New York Rangers

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league missing the playoffs and several more having since been eliminated.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Rangers.

A year ago, it looked as if the rebuild for the Rangers was basically over or had at least been expedited.  Artemi Panarin and Jacob Trouba were added and a strong performance down the stretch provided optimism for the future before Carolina swept them in the Qualifying Round in the bubble.  Even so, there was plenty of optimism heading into the season but the results weren’t there.  The result was a house cleaning with Chris Drury taking over as GM and Gerard Gallant recently being named head coach.  While those are big items off their checklist, there is still some work to be done.

Round Out Coaching Staff

While they have Gallant in the fold, the coaching staff still needs some work.  Goalie coach Benoit Allaire was retained and, well, that’s it for the current staff.  David Oliver, Jacques Martin, and Greg Brown were also all let go when David Quinn was fired last month and will need to be replaced.  Kris Knoblauch could be a candidate to join the staff on a full-time basis; the AHL Hartford bench boss filled in for six games for Quinn this season while he was in COVID-19 protocols.

Center Decisions

New York appears to be set between the pipes for the foreseeable future.  They have several young blueliners in the pipeline, headlined by K’Andre Miller who had a strong rookie season.  They’re well-set on the wings with Panarin plus recent high first-round picks in Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko; Chris Kreider is also signed long-term.

The pipeline isn’t anywhere near as well-stocked when it comes to the center position, however.  Filip Chytil showed some progression this season but at this point, he looks more like a third-line option than a top-six piece of the future.  Brett Howden was a first-rounder back in 2016 but is going to be more of a role player than a core one.  Morgan Barron certainly has some upside but they’re certainly not ready to proclaim him as a top-six center of the future either.  It’s an area that needs to be addressed and it’s a big one.

It’s not something that necessarily has to be addressed this year but the clock is ticking.  Mika Zibanejad and Ryan Strome, their current top pivots, are both a year away from unrestricted free agency with Zibanejad looking like a candidate to land a considerable raise on his current $5.35MM AAV.  Strome, meanwhile, has 108 points in 126 games over the last two seasons.  While he has an earned reputation of being inconsistent, that’s still an impressive recent track record and if he has another year like that, he will also be looking at a raise on his $4.5MM price tag.

It seems likely that Drury will at least investigate the cost of signing Zibanejad to a long-term extension while Strome’s file may be left a little longer to see how next year starts out.  However, if they wind up landing a top-line pivot, that player is going to be expensive.  As their youngsters move past their entry-level deals, can they afford to pay Zibanejad market value to play on their second line?  It’d be a great luxury to have but in this cap environment, it might be one that they can’t afford.

In the meantime, expect the Rangers to be speculatively linked to every impact center that happens to become available (such as Buffalo’s Jack Eichel).  The supporting cast is in place and this is the one key piece they need to take another step forward.  With their group of young roster players, they will also be in a position where they could move one or two of those in a move and still be in good shape.  Of course, that’s the easy part of the equation.  Finding the impact center is the much more challenging one with that task now falling to Drury.

Re-Sign Key RFAs

There are several restricted free agents that Drury will need to re-sign but two stand out among the pack for very different reasons.

The first is goaltender Igor Shesterkin.  His entry-level contract has come to an end and he has quickly established himself as New York’s starter.  Having said that, he has all of 47 career NHL games under his belt which is less than a single season’s worth for most number ones.  That’s not a particularly large sample size and his standout KHL numbers don’t mean a whole lot in terms of impacting contract talks.

On top of that, he’s 25 and has salary arbitration eligibility.  With Shesterkin only being two years away from UFA eligibility, it’s not an ideal spot for a bridge contract; while most players coming off their first contracts have four years of team control remaining, New York has half of that.  Meanwhile, if early talks don’t go well, Shesterkin could simply file for arbitration, return as the starter, and then be a year away from being unrestricted next summer where he’ll have even more leverage in talks.  A long-term deal is almost certainly New York’s goal but it may be tricky to come by.

The other RFA of note is Pavel Buchnevich.  Over his first few years in the league, he showed some offensive flashes but struggled at times as well.  However, in 2019-20, the combination of him, Zibanejad, and Kreider broke out and Buchnevich responded with a career year with 46 points in 68 games.  He then did even better this season with 48 points in just 54 contests.  That’s top line production which is certain to be mentioned in contract talks as the 26-year-old goes through restricted free agency with arbitration eligibility for the final time.  He will undoubtedly get more than his $3.5MM qualifying offer but at the same time, are the Rangers prepared to commit to him long term or could he be deemed expendable knowing that Lafreniere and Kakko are in the wings?  The contract is one thing while who gives it to him could very well be another question altogether.

Part Ways With DeAngelo

While he was dismissed from the team early in the season, New York had to carry Anthony DeAngelo on the salary cap for the rest of the season (minus the pro-rated $1.075MM in savings after he cleared waivers and was sent to the taxi squad).  He has one year left on his contract, one that carries a $4.8MM AAV along with a $5.3MM salary.  Drury may first try to find a taker in a trade first in a swap of expiring contracts but with how cheap his buyout would be, they shouldn’t look too closely at that option.  Since DeAngelo is 25, the buyout ratio is one-third instead of two-thirds.  Accordingly, the cap charge would only be $383K next season and $883K after that.  DeAngelo turned down a contract termination at the trade deadline but it’s all but a lock that he’ll be released this summer when the buyout window opens up after the Stanley Cup Final.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: San Jose Sharks

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

Back in 2017, the San Jose Sharks ended up losing David Schlemko to the Vegas Golden Knights in the expansion process after they decided not to make any side deals with the incoming team. Vegas decided on Schlemko with the intention of a trade and quickly flipped him to the Montreal Canadiens for a fifth-round pick. The Sharks are the perfect example in favor of just letting the expansion process play out, as the Golden Knights ended up leaving other names like Brenden Dillon on the table. Schlemko played just 55 more NHL games and was out of professional hockey after the 2018-19 season.

At that point, the Sharks were a recent Stanley Cup runner-up and had been to the playoffs 13 of the previous 14 seasons. It’s a much different situation this time after two years of missing the postseason and the protection options show how thin the roster is getting.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Logan Couture, Evander Kane, Timo Meier, Tomas Hertl, Kevin Labanc, Ryan Donato, Alexander True, Rudolfs Balcers, Jayden Halbgewachs, Dylan Gambrell, Jonatan Dahlen

Defense:

Erik Karlsson (NMC), Brent Burns, Marc-Edouard Vlasic (NMC), Radim Simek, Christian Jaros, Jacob Middleton, Nicolas Meloche

Goalies:

Martin Jones, Josef Korenar

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

Marcus Sorensen, Matthew Nieto, Patrick Marleau, Kurtis Gabriel, Maxim Letunov, Greg Pateryn

Notable Exemptions

Alexander Barabanov, John Leonard, Nikolai Knyzhov, Mario Ferraro, Noah Gregor, Alexei Melnichuk, Sasha Chmelevski, Ivan Chekhovich

Key Decisions

Overall, the Sharks are facing a tough offseason. How do you retool and get the roster back to contender status when you have so much money tied up in aging players? The contracts handed out to the old core are anchors on the roster now, especially in a flat-cap world, and there are holes all over the place. With that in mind, the Sharks could potentially use the expansion draft as an opportunity, trying to bait (or entice) the Kraken into taking one of those contracts off the books.

That discussion starts (and perhaps ends) with Burns, the bearded, unique, franchise icon that has done so many incredible things for the Sharks. Burns turned 36 in March and just had his second-worst offensive season (even by points-per-game) since arriving in San Jose a decade ago. Gone are the days of the 20+ goal, point-per-game rover that took home the Norris Trophy in 2017 and yet, there are still four more years on his contract at an $8MM cap hit. It’s not that Burns is completely ineffective, but the idea of having his contract vanish has to be at least a little bit enticing for GM Doug Wilson. That’s a tough trigger to pull given how popular he is in the market, but it actually might be the most effective way to clear some space.

A move like that is only even a possibility because both Karlsson and Vlasic have no-movement clauses that force San Jose to protect them in the draft. Getting out from either one of their contracts—seven more years at $11.5MM for Karlsson and five at $7MM for Vlasic—would be ideal, but isn’t possible unless Wilson can somehow convince them to waive their clause.

If the team goes with the traditional seven forwards/three defensemen protection scheme, which is likely, that basically makes the decision either Burns or Simek for the last spot. The 28-year-old Simek signed a four-year, $9MM contract just over a year ago and looked like a stable, stay-at-home foil for Burns or Karlsson,  but has quickly been passed on the depth chart by younger options. Though he dealt with some injuries this season, Simek only averaged 14:13 in ice time through 40 appearances and really doesn’t need to be protected at this point.

Upfront, things are a little more favorable. Couture, Kane, Meier, Hertl, and Labanc seem like locks for protection, even though not all of them lived up to their contracts this season. Even though Meier and Labanc only had 12 goals each, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to expose them and give up on the chance for a bounceback in 2021-22.

That leaves two protection spots available at forward and there are several options. Donato was supposed to reach another level in San Jose after being acquired for a third-round pick in October, but managed just six goals and 20 points in 50 games. He is actually a restricted free agent, so even if the team wants to leave him exposed to fill a required spot he’d need a new contract first. Balcers showed flashes potential and could likely warrant a spot, while Gambrell is at least still young enough to hopefully take a step forward offensively.

The real wildcard is Dahlen, who just signed a contract to return from Sweden after dominating the second tier there. The 23-year-old is the kind of boom-or-bust prospect that an expansion team would love to get their hands on, meaning San Jose is probably going to have to protect him. There’s no guarantee Dahlen ever works in the NHL, but his offensive skill makes him so intriguing that Seattle would have to take a swing.

In net, it seems obvious to leave Jones exposed and protect Korenar. Even though the young goaltender didn’t perform particularly well in his ten-game stint this season, Jones has been so bad for so long now that it would be a miracle to get his contract off the books. For three straight seasons, Jones has posted an .896 save percentage as the team’s starting goaltender and he has three years at $5.75MM left on his deal.

Projected Protection List

F Logan Couture
F Evander Kane
F Timo Meier
F Tomas Hertl
F Kevin Labanc
F Jonatan Dahlen
F Rudolfs Balcers

D Erik Karlsson
D Marc-Edouard Vlasic
D Brent Burns

G Josef Korenar

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (0)
Defensemen (1): Radim Simek

The Sharks actually don’t have either of their required forward spots filled if they protect those top five, but could easily fix this with new contracts for Donato and Gambrell. Even re-signing Marleau would give them one, if the all-time games played leader is serious about returning for another season. Remember though that this isn’t a perfect situation to be in, given that both Donato and Gambrell are arbitration-eligible. It’s doesn’t help leverage much when the other side knows the contract they are signing may immediately go to another team. Either one could decide to wait for the arbitration process, leaving the Sharks in a tougher spot with the expansion draft coming in just over a month.

At defense, even if the Sharks decided to leave Burns exposed instead, he fills the requirement as well.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: St. Louis Blues

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

In the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, the St. Louis Blues opted to protect expiring assets and role players like Patrik Berglund, Ryan Reaves, and Vladimir Sobotka and as a result lost top-six forward David Perron to the Vegas Golden Knights. The Blues watched as Perron enjoyed what was then the best season of his NHL career and led the Knights to the Stanley Cup Final while they missed the playoffs.

Fortunately, the team learned from their mistakes. They re-signed Perron the following season, won the Stanley Cup, and now three years later Perron is coming off the best campaign of his career. This time around he will be safe, as will most of the Blues’ top players. However, a deep, talented roster will not be able to completely avoid another impact loss in expansion.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Sam Anas, Ivan Barbashev, Sammy Blais, Kyle Clifford, Jacob de La Rose, Tanner Kaspick, Jordan Kyrou, Mackenzie MacEachern, Ryan O’Reilly, David Perron, Zach Sanford, Brayden Schenn, Nolan Stevens, Oskar Sundqvist, Vladimir Tarasenko, Robert Thomas

Defense:
Robert Bortuzzo, Vince Dunn, Justin Faulk, Niko Mikkola, Torey Krug, Colton Parayko, Steven Santini, Marco Scandella, Jake Walman

Goalies:
Jordan Binnington, Evan Fitzpatrick, Ville Husso

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Tyler Bozak, D Carl Gunnarsson, F Mike Hoffman, F Jaden Schwartz

Notable Exemptions

G Joel Hofer, F Dakota Joshua, F Klim Kostin, F Jake Neighbours, D Scott Perunovich

Key Decisions

In contrast to successful team-building, depth and long-term security are the enemy of the Expansion Draft. The St. Louis Blues have built a strong roster with talent throughout the lineup and most of those players are signed beyond this season. With only eight skaters or seven forwards and three defenseman who can be protected, the Blues will expose a number of valuable assets and there is little they can do about it. But they will try.

The first question for the Blues is really what protection scheme to use, which comes down to x-factor number one: Vince Dunn. Following a resurgent season, Dunn was back in the good graces of St. Louis, at least until the trade talks returned of late. As promising as the 24-year-old defenseman may be, the Blues have refrained from giving him a true top-four role and he has also failed to produce top-four numbers. He was fifth in average time on ice among St. Louis defensemen in 2020-21 and while he was third in defensive scoring, most of his production came on the power play. He was fifth in blocked shots and fifth in hits, noticeably behind Krug in both, a player that specializes in neither. While he skates well, Dunn is susceptible to turnovers and is caught out of position frequently. When determining whether or not to protect Dunn, the upside argument for is strong, but the depth argument against is stronger. Compared to Faulk and Krug, the Blues’ two best all-around defensemen this season who the club has committed extensive money and term to, and Parayko, who has a unique blend of size and skill and has been steady throughout his career, it is hard to claim that Dunn is more worthy of protection in a 7-3 scheme despite his age and potential.

With all that said, there is a way to keep Dunn in addition to the three likely locks for protection on the blue line. The Blues could instead go with the eight-skater protection scheme, in which Dunn faces a much easier battle for a protection slot with the veteran Scandella. Of course, the trade-off for the Blues in protecting Dunn is exposing three extra forwards. Depth comes in to play here as well, as the forward corps is no different than the defense in terms of too many valuable players. With top scorer and 2017 Expansion casualty Perron locked in, as well as captain and elite two-way center O’Reilly, consistent top scorer Schenn, and all-world sniper Tarasenko, Dunn’s competition for protection are other fellow young players. Would the Blues really rather keep him over breakout rookie Kyrou? Or promising 21-year-old Thomas? It seems very unlikely, even as Dunn showed improvement this year. And thus the trade rumors. St. Louis will do its best not to lose Dunn for nothing given the promise he has shown, but if they are unable to make a trade before the Expansion Draft, they will let Seattle have the option of taking him over a future top-six forward.

The scheme resolution and acceptance that Dunn would be an attractive target if left exposed doesn’t make the decisions up front any easier for the Blues though. Even with seven forwards under protection, there will still be talent available to the Kraken. This is where x-factor number two comes in: Jaden Schwartz. Perron, O’Reilly, Schenn, Tarasenko, Kyrou, and Thomas are not going anywhere. Sure, there is some debate over Perron’s age or Tarasenko’s injury concerns, but neither argument is strong enough to leave a player of their caliber exposed. So, the Blues have one spot left at forward. Currently, Schwartz is slated for unrestricted free agency. The long-time St. Louis top-sixer may be too expensive for the team to re-sign, especially as he eyes a weak free agent market, but they will try. If the Blues come to an agreement with Schwartz before the Expansion Draft, they may decide to officially sign him or protect him as a UFA. Once Seattle has a chance to speak with Schwartz, their offer could mark the end of any handshake agreement he had with the Blues, so St. Louis could want the added security.

The other possibility is that the Blues either don’t reach an agreement with Schwartz in time or simply decide that using a protection slot on a UFA is not worth it. This does not rule out a Schwartz return to St. Louis, but it does open up the conversation of who else is deserving of that final spot. Impending free agents Bozak and Hoffman are unlikely to return and will not be protected and checking forwards Clifford and MacEachern, while valued, don’t stand up against the team’s top-nine options. Barbashev, Blais, Sanford, and Sundqvist will all be in consideration and all have a decent case for protection.

Sanford was the leading scorer of the bunch this season, but each of the other three missed time, especially Sundqvist whose season was lost to a torn ACL midway through the year. On a per-game basis, it was actually Blais that led the way. Blais is also the youngest of the group and the most physical, which could give him a leg up. Then again, Blais also had the lowest time on ice per game and contributed the least on special teams. Barbashev was the only positive player of the group and the possession leader. The decision may be one of the tightest for any team at any position, especially with four valid options. As a result, it may not come down to performance at all. Sundqvist, though a great defensive forward, is coming off of a major injury and has two years left on his current contract at $2.75MM. The Kraken would be taking a risk by selecting him, which likely leaves him exposed. Barbashev and Sanford have been in the NHL for a similar amount of time and have similar career offensive numbers. However, the more important thing that they both have in common is that they are both unsigned restricted free agents. If that does not change before the Expansion Draft, it makes both players less likely to be selected – if only slightly – as Seattle must take 20 players with term of their 30 picks, meaning Barbashev or Sanford would have to be deemed worthy of one of a maximum ten slots for RFA’s and UFA’s. It also stands to reason that either one could replace the loss of the other. This leaves Blais as the unique member of the group: healthy, under contract, and not to mention coming off a season in which he showed flashes of top-six potential. He may not be the best player of the four, but he is the safest pick for protection.

Finally, in goal there is no decision at all. Binnington is the unrivaled starter and the clear protection selection. Though he has been slow to develop, Fitzpatrick finally showed this season in the AHL the potential that made him a second-round draft choice, but it isn’t enough to usurp Binnington.

Projected Protection List

F Sammy Blais
F Jordan Kyrou
F Ryan O’Reilly
F David Perron
F Brayden Schenn
F Vladimir Tarasenko
F Robert Thomas

D Justin Faulk
D Torey Krug
D Colton Parayko

G Jordan Binnington

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (3): Kyle Clifford, Mackenzie MacEachern, Oskar Sundqvist

Defensemen (3): Robert Bortuzzo, Niko Mikkola, Marco Scandella

The Blues have the type of roster where they may want to look into a trade with Seattle for the Kraken to select a specific player in exchange for a draft pick or prospect rather than leaving so many valuable players exposed. Even with their seven best forwards, top three defensemen, and starting goalie protected, St. Louis faces the certainty of impact loss. If not traded beforehand, Dunn would be a major loss. If Sundqvist returns to full strength, he too would be a player the Blues would really miss and would be an asset to the Kraken. Either of Sanford or Barbashev could break out in a greater role in Seattle. Even prospect goalie Fitzpatrick or veteran defenseman Scandella would hurt. Would it be worth a mid-round pick just to hand-pick who was leaving ahead of time?

St. Louis has all the incentive to leave their pending UFA’s exposed in hopes that Seattle takes the bait. The team could very well be interested in all three of Schwartz, Hoffman, and Bozak, considering the former two will be top free agent scorers and the latter could help to address a need down the middle that expansion teams tend to have. However, there is such enticing value available to the Kraken elsewhere, that they too have incentive to talk to the Blues’ UFA’s but not select them, opting for a current roster player instead with the opportunity to circle back on any of Schwartz, Hoffman, or Bozak on the open market. Seattle could also take advantage of a vulnerable Blues team to add a valuable draft pick, still select a solid player, and again turn around and sign a free agent. There are many opportunities for the Kraken – far more than St. Louis would like.

Expansion Primer: Tampa Bay Lightning

at CDT | by 11 Comments

Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

Back in 2017, Tampa Bay made a side deal with Vegas to force them into taking defenseman Jason Garrison.  The price they paid was fairly steep in Nikita Gusev plus second and fourth-round draft picks but it allowed them to retain two young blueliners in Jake Dotchin and Slater Koekkoek.  With their salary cap situation, it seems quite likely that the Lightning will be making a trade with Seattle to get them to pick a specific player.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Alex Barre-Boulet, Anthony Cirelli, Ross Colton, Nikita Kucherov (NMC), Yanni Gourde, Tyler Johnson, Mathieu Joseph, Boris Katchouk, Alex Killorn, Pat Maroon, Ondrej Palat, Brayden Point, Taylor Raddysh, Otto Somppi, Steven Stamkos (NMC), Mitchell Stephens, Daniel Walcott

Defense:
Erik Cernak, Sean Day, Callan Foote, Victor Hedman (NMC), Dominik Masin, Ryan McDonagh, Jan Rutta, Mikhail Sergachev

Goalies:
Spencer Martin, Andrei Vasilevskiy

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

Andreas Borgman, Fredrik Claesson, Blake Coleman, Barclay Goodrow, David Savard, Luke Schenn, Gemel Smith

Notable Exemptions

G Hugo Alnefelt, F Ryan Lohin, F Jimmy Huntington, G Amir Miftakhov, F Antoine Morand

Key Decisions

There are some problems that are good to have and having too many good players is certainly one of them.  Without a side deal in place, it means that Tampa Bay is going to lose a good one no matter which route they go.

Let’s look at their defense first.  Hedman and Sergachev are sure-fire bets to be protected but that’s about it.  McDonagh is a key cog on their back end and logged nearly 22 minutes a game during the regular season and that has gone up slightly in the playoffs.  He’s a big part of the puzzle.  However, he’s also 32 years old and signed through 2026 at a $6.75MM AAV.  With that term and price tag, could he safely be left unprotected?

That would leave at least one opening for a younger blueliner although there are a couple of players to consider for that potential last spot in a 7/3/1 scheme.  Cernak took another step forward this season, spending a lot of it inside Tampa’s top four.  He’s signed on a team-friendly bridge deal for two more years at $2.95MM and making him available would be very enticing for the Kraken.

Then there’s Foote.  He only made his NHL debut this season in what was a very limited role but he’s also not that far removed from being a first-round pick as he was selected 14th overall back in 2017.  He’ll need waivers beginning next year so he should be a full-timer on the roster at what should be a price tag of under $1MM on a short-term contract.  Given their cap situation, it would be hard to part with a cheap roster player.

That cap situation will certainly dictate their approach with their forwards as well.  Kucherov and Stamkos are automatic protectees while Point and Cirelli don’t have to be protected but are safe bets to be.

Normally, finishing fourth on the team in scoring would make a player be a safe bet to be protected but that’s not the case with Gourde.  The small center played at a 25-goal, 52-point pace this season which is quite good but he’s on the books for four more years at $5.167MM.  That’s not a bad return on the contract but knowing that they need to free up some money, he could be left unprotected.

Palat finished second in scoring behind only Point and even that isn’t enough to make him a lock to be protected.  His price tag is certainly reasonable at $5.3MM and he only has one year left so it’s not a long-term drag on Tampa Bay’s cap.  But if they want to protect four defensemen, Palat could very well be squeezed out.

Killorn is another long-time Lightning veteran that could feel the squeeze.  He played at a 40-plus-point pace again this season and would have gotten there had it not been for the pandemic-shortened campaign which would have been the fourth straight year of getting to that mark.  At $4.45MM, he’s not overly expensive either and with only two years left, it’s certainly a manageable deal.  But again, they’re facing a situation where they simply have to move money out.

Before looking into some of the other forward candidates, let’s get to the obvious veteran on this list in Johnson.  Tampa Bay clearly tried to move him last fall and when they couldn’t find a taker, they put him on waivers but had no luck there either.  It’s not that he’s a bad player by any stretch, he’s just too expensive for the role he provides.  He’s a capable middle-six center and if he was a free agent tomorrow, there would be plenty of interest.  But the 30-year-old isn’t a free agent, he has three years left at a $5MM cap hit.  The expectation is that the Lightning will try to make a deal to entice Seattle to take that contract off their hands but it will have to be a sizable premium paid as there will be quality players to pick from.

Knowing they will need some cost-efficient forwards as well, there could also be an inclination to try to protect one or more of them in a 7/3/1 scheme.  Barre-Boulet held his own in his first taste of NHL action this season after being a consistently high scorer in the AHL.  Joseph had a dozen goals this season while primarily playing on the fourth line while Stephens was a regular for more than half of last year.  Even Katchouk, who doesn’t have any NHL experience, showed a lot with AHL Syracuse this season and should be in the mix for a roster spot next year.  They all have some NHL upside and are all affordable which is a combination that they need to try to hold on to.  Having said that, it would be hard to see those players crack their protected list.

Projected Protection List

F Anthony Cirelli
F Nikita Kucherov (NMC)
F Brayden Point
F Steven Stamkos (NMC)

D Erik Cernak
D Callan Foote
D Victor Hedman (NMC)
D Mikhail Sergachev

G Andrei Vasilevskiy

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (6): Yanni Gourde, Alex Killorn, Tyler Johnson, Mathieu Joseph, Pat Maroon, Ondrej Palat
Defensemen (2): Ryan McDonagh, Jan Rutta

In terms of who’s available from this list, Palat would be the most tempting choice and if they can’t find a side deal to force them to take Johnson (or another similarly-priced player), they could be at risk of losing their second-leading scorer.  This was put together with the assumption that they’ll want to keep Foote, who will almost certainly play a bigger role next season, in the fold but if they are okay with losing him, they would be safer flipping to the 7/3/1 scheme with Palat, Killorn, and Gourde seeming like the safest bets to be protected.  Either way, with so many talented players, they’re going to lose someone of note so expect GM Julien BriseBois to be active in trying to make a side deal control which one joins Seattle.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

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