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Free Agent Focus: Chicago Blackhawks

at CDT | by 6 Comments

Free agency is now just a little more than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. The Chicago Blackhawks are one of those teams with numerous RFA’s of note, but fortunately few UFA’s to concern themselves with.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Brandon Hagel – Oftentimes when late-round draft picks produce big numbers later in their junior careers, it is more of a function of experience and maturity than an indicator of NHL ability. It seemed that way with Hagel, who recorded 102 points in his final season in the WHL, but played just one game with the Blackhawks in his first pro season in 2019-20. It doesn’t look that way anymore. Hagel recorded 24 points in 52 games with Chicago as a rookie this year, finishing fifth on the team in scoring. The 22-year-old earned increasingly more ice time and special teams responsibilities as he never slowed down. Hagel looks a like a two-way forward with 20-goal and 40-point upside and that is after only one year. Chicago would be smart to lock him into a multi-year extension before his stock can rise any higher.

F Pius Suter – Another European import, another home run. Just a year after Dominik Kubalik earned Calder Trophy votes as a 24-year-old in his first season in North America, Suter made a major impact in his debut as well. He may not be the same caliber of player as Kubalik, but with 14 goals and 27 points in 55 games he is assuredly an NHL caliber player. The Blackhawks need the depth at center too, where Suter was able to line up without issue. He may have been new to the league, but Suter did not play like a rookie, logging big minutes and finishing fourth in scoring. Chicago has nailed another free agency addition and won’t let this one season be the end of it. However, Suter’s age and arbitration rights give him far more leverage in negotiations than Hagel, a 10.2(c) limited RFA.

D Nikita Zadorov – Unlike Hagel and Suter, Zadorov is not an easy extension. He has a long, up-and-down history, failed to meet expectations in his first season in Chicago, and comes at a much higher price tag. He is also eligible for salary arbitration and has the NHL experience to make it a complicated case. Do the Blackhawks offer Zadorov a qualifying offer? Do they protect him in the Expansion Draft? Do they comply with an arbitration decision? These are all difficult questions when it comes to a player that is hard to peg. Zadorov has considerable experience, great size and checking ability, and plays the position competently enough to eat minutes. However, he also contributes little offensively, is a turnover liability, and is seemingly in decline already at 26. There is no easy answer when it comes to Zadorov, especially in light of the team’s salary cap issues, but Chicago likely will not want to lose him for nothing. By adding Riley Stillman this season, they do have a fallback plan if Zadorov departs, but they would likely prefer that to be on their own terms via trade. If the Blackhawks go through the effort to protect Zadorov from expansion and to negotiate a new contract, they need to be prepared to keep him if a suitable trade offer does not appear.

Other RFAs: F Josh Dickinson, F Adam Gaudette, F David Kampf, D Alexander Nylander

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Vinnie Hinostroza – It didn’t work out in Florida for Hinostroza, who signed a one-year with the Panthers last off-season but played a minor role in just nine games with the team before he was traded. Fortunately, he was dealt back to a team that he was familiar with in Chicago and his performance changed immediately. After a scoreless season in Florida, Hinostroza recorded four goals and 12 points in 17 games down the stretch, far and away the best per-game production of his NHL career. Hinostroza was active on the ice, meshed well with his teammates, and looked like a natural fit back with the Blackhawks. Although he excelled in Chicago, overall it was still a down year for Hinostroza, which could mean he is willing to re-sign at a low price. Yet, over the previous three years, one of which was with the Blackhawks, Hinostroza scored at a close to 40-point full-season pace and his play down the stretch implies he might be able to replicate those numbers if he stays with the team. There should be mutual interest in getting a deal done.

Other UFAs: D Anton Lindholm (Group 6),F Brandon Pirri, F John Quenneville (Group 6), F Zack Smith

Projected Cap Space

Given their salary cap situation, it is good that the Blackhawks’ impact free agents are almost all RFA’s, where the team holds the leverage, and not UFA’s, where the player holds the leverage. Chicago has over $75MM already tied up in 24 contract, per CapFriendly. That number is not exactly a realistic estimate as many of those deals are waiver-exempt entry-level contracts and the combined $10.775MM of Brent Seabrook and Andrew Shaw will be placed on Long-Term Injured Reserve, as neither will play again. However, that still leaves the Blackhawks with less than $17MM in cap space with the aforementioned Gaudette, Hagel, Kampf, Nylander, Suter, and Zadorov all in need of new contracts. That averages out to under $2.8MM per RFA starter, which is likely an unrealistic benchmark. The Seattle Kraken may lighten the RFA load for Chicago, but with Hinostroza also in need of a new deal and the Blackhawks ideally looking to add an impact two-way forward to assist with penalty killing, things are looking tight for the Blackhawks.

Expansion Primer: Minnesota Wild

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

In 2017, the Minnesota Wild protected three defensemen in the Expansion Draft: Jonas Brodin, Jared Spurgeon, and Ryan Suter. This left young standout defenseman Matt Dumba exposed (along with a number of other significant players). Yet, Dumba did not go to the Vegas Golden Knights. Why? Because Minnesota paid the price to keep him safe. Alongside selection Erik Haula, Minnesota also sent impressive young forward Alex Tuch to Vegas. The side deal kept their other players protected, but the Wild have watched as Tuch has blossomed into the power forward they foresaw when selecting him in the first round in 2014. It was a heavy price to pay.

This time around, Brodin, Spurgeon, and Suter will again need to be protected. They are each still top-four defensemen for Minnesota and now they all hold a No-Movement Clause as well, meaning that unless they waive that clause they are required to be protected. Again, this could potentially leave Dumba exposed, a scenario that has put the Wild back in the expansion spotlight more than any other team, seemingly since Seattle was introduced as the future 32nd NHL team. In reality, the Wild cannot and will not give the dynamic defender away for free, so they must find out how to protect Dumba within the confines of their current protection possibilities or else he will be traded.

The goal for the team this year is to find a way within the constructs of the expansion draft rules to mitigate the impact of their expansion loss, rather than forfeit another top prospect or pick in a side deal. With the Dumba situation driving their decisions, a deep forward corps to consider, and a tough question in net, GM Bill Guerin has his work cut out for him. However, the help of one or two veterans could be huge for the Wild in managing to escape this round of expansion without getting too badly hurt.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Zach Parise (NMC), Mats Zuccarello (NMC), Will Bitten, Joel Eriksson Ek, Kevin Fiala, Marcus Foligno, Jordan Greenway, Ryan Hartman, Victor Rask, Dmitry Sokolov, Mason Shaw, Nico Sturm

Defense:
Jonas Brodin (NMC), Jared Spurgeon (NMC), Ryan Suter (NMC), Matt Dumba, Brennan Menell, Carson Soucy

Goalies:
Kaapo Kahkonen, Cam Talbot

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Nick Bjugstad, F Nick Bonino, D Ian Cole, F Marcus Johansson

Notable Exemptions

D Calen Addison, F Adam Beckman, F Matthew Boldy, F Mitchell Chaffee, F Kirill Kaprizov, D Ryan O’Rourke, F Marco Rossi

Key Decisions

The first and most important question for the Wild is “can anything be done to change the status quo?” If unchanged, Minnesota faces a very difficult task of escaping expansion unharmed. However, if Guerin can convince any of his players with No-Movement Clauses to waive or can trade one of his otherwise-exposed players for picks and exempt prospects, that would change the calculus of the situation.

If you assume that the team must move ahead as constituted, it locks the Wild into an eight-skater scheme. As noted, Dumba is not going to Seattle for free so if he is not traded or another defenseman does not waive his NMC, then Dumba will be protected as the team’s fourth defender. This makes for a very difficult decision at forward. With just two spots available next to Parise and Zuccarello, Minnesota must pick two of three 24-year-old forwards who all finished in the top five in team scoring this season: Fiala, Greenway, and Eriksson Ek. Fiala, 24, is the most proven young scorer on the team, recording three 20-goal seasons and essentially four 40-point seasons in just five NHL seasons. His RFA status and his slow start in the postseason are unlikely to make a difference; Fiala will be protected. There would really be just one spot open at forward.

As for Eriksson Ek versus Greenway, the decision is much tighter. Eriksson Ek is the team’s top center and a great two-way, physical player who made great strides this season. Greenway has been the better, more consistent scorer so far in his young career and has made steady improvement each year. He too is a strong two-way player with elite power forward upside. It is impossible to know which player the team might prefer, but this much is certain: Seattle will not hesitate to scoop up whichever of the pair they must expose.

Assume now that a trade or NMC waiver allows Minnesota to employ a 7-3 protection scheme. In this scenario, decisions remain at forward but carry far less weight. Fiala, Eriksson Ek, and Greenway are all safe alongside Parise and Zuccarello. This leaves two spots left and number of candidates. Following the best per-game scoring season of his career, not to mention his contributions to the checking game and penalty kill, Foligno would likely be a lock. The remaining spot could go to Hartman, who increased his value with his transition to center this season, an area where the Wild lack depth. Hartman already earned an affordable, multi-year extension, as both sides seem happy with the fit. Rask outscored Hartman by one point this season and is a natural center, but his contract value and upcoming expiration both hurt his case. Sturm is developing into a good bottom-six forward, but the collegiate product is the same age as Hartman with a fraction of the pro experience.

Regardless of the protection scheme, there are two constants for the Wild: Soucy will be exposed and only one goalie can be protected. Neither is an easy pill to swallow. Minnesota paid up to keep Soucy when he almost left as a Group 6 free agent and the 26-year-old proved them right by continuing to improve this season. However, with a solid top four that they already have enough problems balancing in expansion, it is hard to imagine a way in which Soucy is protected. It is actually more likely that he could be traded before the draft. In goal, the team must choose between experience and stability or youth and upside. Talbot was brought in as a free agent this season to start for the Wild and he performed very well, especially in the playoffs where he started every game. However, it ended up being much more of a timeshare in the regular season, as young Kahkonen pushed for starts. The 2019-20 AHL Goaltender of the Year had some issues in his first NHL season, but has the makings of a future starter. After such a strong season, would the team mortgage the future in order to keep Talbot in place as their reliable starter? Or is Kahkonen’s potential too hard to ignore?

Projected Protection List

F Joel Eriksson Ek
F Kevin Fiala
F Marcus Foligno
F Jordan Greenway
F Ryan Hartman
F Nico Sturm
F Mats Zuccarello (NMC)

D Jonas Brodin (NMC)
D Matt Dumba 
D Jared Spurgeon (NMC)

G Kaapo Kahkonen

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (2): Zach Parise, Victor Rask

Defensemen (2): Carson Soucy, Ryan Suter

Taking some creative liberties here, the projected protections and exposures are based on the idea that Parise and Suter will take one for the team and waive their No-Movement Clauses for the Expansion Draft. The 36-year-olds (Parise will be 37 next month) are in decline, are paid $7.5MM+, and are under contract through the 2024-25 season, during which they will be 40 years old. There is no chance that the Kraken select Parise and little to no chance they take Suter. Starting a franchise with expensive players in their late thirties is not a feasible plan and Seattle GM Ron Francis is not one to take foolish chances. There is no risk to the team nor the players for Parise and Suter to waive their NMC’s. They’ll do it for the same reason they signed long-term deals with the Wild in the first place: to give their hometown team its best chance to win a Stanley Cup. After a season in which the club reinvented itself into a legitimate contender, the team is closer than ever to that goal and Parise and Suter are unlikely to stand in the way and cost the themselves a valuable teammate.

If this does indeed occur – and reason (plus some rumors) suggest that it will – the Wild are in much better shape with the Expansion Draft than previously thought. Minnesota could still go with an eight-skater scheme to protect Soucy rather than the likes of Foligno, Hartman, and Sturm, but it seems highly unlikely. The big defenseman has upside, but will never be more than a bottom-pair player in Minnesota. He will be an attractive option for Seattle, though. So too will veteran goaltender Talbot. A sturdy netminder who played well in his first season in Minnesota, Talbot would be a tough loss for the Wild but there are potential replacements on the free agent market. It would be far more difficult to replace the youth and upside of Kahkonen. For the Kraken, Talbot could both challenge for a starting role or could be flipped to another team with needs in net. Up front, the 7-3 scheme leaves little to offer Seattle. Rask’s cap hit is not worth his production, plus he’s on an expiring deal. If the Kraken are not enamored with Soucy or Talbot, young prospects Shaw or Bitten could be appealing, but would have to be considered worthy of a roster spot or else would be risked on waivers. They could also opt to negotiate with an impending free agent, with several notable names to choose from. However, Minnesota’s expansion exposure is not quite the guaranteed win for Seattle that it initially seemed.

PHR Mailbag: San Jose’s Defense, Seattle, Larkin, Islanders, Hamilton, Bruins, Oilers, Flyers, Laine

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include San Jose’s expansion situation for their back end, potential side deals and targets for Seattle, Dylan Larkin’s future with Detroit, how to free up cap space for the Islanders, Dougie Hamilton’s trade value, Boston’s drafting, Edmonton’s need for better complementary forwards, Philadelphia’s summer, and Patrik Laine.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

The Mistake of Giving Eugene Melnyk a Liver Transplant: Could Doug Wilson convince Vlasic and Karlsson to waive their NMCs and then protect 8 forwards/0 defensemen?

That’s certainly a creative idea although it would be tricky to do that and stay in compliance with the requirement for having two signed forwards under contract that played 27 games this year or 54 in the past two combined.  When Gavin looked at their expansion situation last week, they were at zero eligible forwards to begin with.  Adding an extra forward to the protected list is going to make fulfilling that particular obligation that much tougher.

But if they can sign enough forwards that qualify to do that, it would definitely be an avenue worth pursuing.  Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Erik Karlsson aren’t getting picked because of their contract and neither is Brent Burns.  That would certainly limit their exposure to either losing Radim Simek, Josef Korenar (as a depth goalie), or a depth forward.  If they can do that, they’d come out of expansion as one of the more fortunate teams in the league.

jdgoat: Who do you think works out a side deal with Seattle? Also, who will be the most expensive players they end up with?

Washington looks like a strong candidate given that they have to keep their cheap goaltending tandem intact.  There’s no way to protect both Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek and whichever one is unprotected would be tempting for the Kraken so a move will need to be made there.  Tampa Bay is certainly going to try to make a move to entice Seattle to take a pricey contract (Tyler Johnson seems like the speculative fit there).  Calgary could very well wind up leaving Mark Giordano unprotected but it’s hard to imagine they won’t try to find a way to keep their captain around.  If Minnesota can’t find a trade taker for Mathew Dumba in time, they’ll undoubtedly try to make a side deal as well to avoid losing him for nothing.  The same can be said for St. Louis and Vince Dunn.

I think the most expensive player they wind up with may very well come from Philadelphia.  Jakub Voracek ($8.25MM) and James van Riemsdyk ($7MM) could both be unprotected and would jump onto Seattle’s top line right away.  Both commitments are relatively short-term (three years for Voracek, two for van Riemsdyk) so there isn’t much long-term risk here.  I can’t see anyone more expensive than one of those two being selected.

pawtucket: Which UFAs should Seattle go after to compliment the plethora of 3rd line forwards and 5th/6th d-men they get from the expansion draft?

A lot depends on their plans.  Are they looking to win right away or are they eyeing a more gradual buildup which is what most expansion teams wind up going through?  If it’s the former, then they’re going to go after the likes of Dougie Hamilton and Gabriel Landeskog if they get to the open market.  If it’s the latter, however (and I suspect it is), then it’s all about short-term contracts.

Why?  Rental players are always in demand but in this cap environment, not having lingering obligations beyond the current season is even more appealing.  So if I’m GM Ron Francis and thinking more about two or three years from now, I want players that are easy to flip for extra picks or prospects to start building up their system.  They won’t have an AHL team next season but Palm Springs will start in 2022-23 so what’s a good way to start building that team?  By flipping a bunch of rentals at the trade deadline.

Who can still contribute to a team but will likely be stuck taking a one-year deal in free agency?  It’s a long list and that’s where Seattle should be shopping on the open market.

Eaton Harass: Any chance Larkin is available? He’d be a perfect fit for a team like the Avs or Rangers. They definitely have the pieces to get it done.

I don’t think Dylan Larkin is available or should be but I’ll qualify that by noting that I remember writing in a previous mailbag that Anthony Mantha wouldn’t be going anywhere at the deadline and we all know how that turned out.  Teams need capable veteran leadership and while Larkin isn’t exactly a veteran, he’s pretty close to one on this team.  He’s also young enough to be part of that next core which is still probably a few years away.  It’s worth noting that he’s an unrestricted free agent in 2023 and if he gives an indication that he doesn’t want to stay, then yes, move him.  But that feels like a discussion to be had next summer when he’s eligible for a contract extension more than one that needs to happen now.

I’m not sure either Colorado or New York would be a perfect fit either.  If the Avs are able to keep Gabriel Landeskog and Philipp Grubauer (both pending UFAs), they’ll pretty much be capped out re-signing their own talent (which also includes Cale Makar as an RFA).  Is Detroit going to take a return centered around Nazem Kadri for Larkin?  Probably not.  As for the Rangers, Larkin is a good center but is he a true number one?  That’s what they need.  If he’s in that tier that’s slightly below a top center, they already have that in Mika Zibanejad, assuming they’re able to extend him.  Sure, he’d be an upgrade on Ryan Strome on a long-term basis but I feel their top trade chips should be saved for someone that can be more impactful offensively or at least be guaranteed to be around longer than two years, the remaining term of Larkin’s contract.

Joe422: Nobody ever knows what Lou is thinking but the Islanders need to free up cap space to sign their RFA and resign Cizikas. What does Lou do? Trade Nick Leddy? What would he get back? A 2nd and a 3rd round pick? Could you also see Jordan Eberle being left unprotected and Kyle Palmieri be re-signed for less annual $ than Eberle?

Let’s look at that cap situation first.  Per PuckPedia, they have about $75.7MM in commitments to 17 players with, as you noted, Casey Cizikas and Kyle Palmieri among the pending UFAs while Anthony Beauvillier and Ilya Sorokin are among the RFAs.  Even with Johnny Boychuk being eligible for LTIR (allowing them to spend up to $6MM past the cap), you’re absolutely correct in that they need to shed salary.

Leo Komarov and Andrew Ladd look like candidates to be full-season members with AHL Bridgeport, clearing up $1.125MM in space for each of them though those amounts are offset by needing to replace them with someone making close to the minimum.  Still, there’s a few hundred thousand in savings.  Cal Clutterbuck feels like another possible cap casualty, either through waivers or even a buyout.  He plays an important role but he’s way too expensive for that role.  Ross Johnston could also be waived and farmed out with someone making the minimum replacing him, saving $250K.

I expect Cizikas will return at a lower price tag than $3.35MM.  He will be sought after by a lot of teams but most teams can’t pay fourth liners that type of money and that includes the Islanders.  If the offers are near the $2MM mark, he’ll probably stay put.

I don’t see Palmieri sticking around for a couple of reasons.  The first is that I don’t think they’ll leave Eberle unprotected and even if they did, does Seattle find his $5.5MM price tag for three more years appealing?  The second is that I wouldn’t be surprised if Palmieri covets a bigger role than what he had with the Islanders as he was more of a middle-six player than a top-six one (and while both of those involve the second line, I think there’s a distinction between the two).

I agree that Leddy feels like a cap casualty but how strong is his market?  They’d have preferred to trade him instead of Devon Toews a year ago so they can’t expect to get a similar return as they got for Toews for Leddy now.  If there’s going to be an expansion casualty, I think it might be him.  I like Leddy and he’s a serviceable second-pairing defender.  However, this is not a good market to be dumping money and he also is at $5.5MM but just for one more year.  If I’m Seattle, Leddy’s contract is more attractive than Eberle’s if it came to that.  While they’d need to replace him, they should be able to re-sign Adam Pelech and a Leddy replacement for that money (plus Pelech’s previous $1.6MM AAV).

Sorokin looks like a candidate for a bridge deal to keep his cost down and if they go short-term with Beauvillier (even a one-year contract), they can keep the cost manageable.  With the other small cap savings, they should be able to stay cap compliant.

mikedickinson: $8 million seems insane for Hamilton. He looked lost when Slavin was out during the Nashville series. As a Canes fan, what could we expect for compensation? Also, if Dougie leaves, any chance we make a run at Jones, if he’d sign for less than Hamilton?

The one downside to doing what they did by letting his camp talk to teams is that it took away any possibility of doing what they did with Joel Edmundson last fall, flipping his rights to Montreal for a fifth-round pick.  Why trade for exclusive rights when you can already talk to him?  If Hamilton doesn’t really want an eighth year on his contract if the money isn’t as high as he wants, the sign-and-trade isn’t as important either; he can get his seven years from anyone.

I can’t see the return for Hamilton in an extend-and-trade deal being too substantial.  The acquiring team will probably send a contract back to help offset the money and Carolina will be compensated for taking that salary offset on in the form of a draft pick or prospect.  I know that sounds underwhelming but unless Hamilton goes to Carolina and gives them a list of a few teams to choose from, it’s going to be tough to get any sort of bidding war going.  That’s what drives the trade price up and without that element, they don’t have a lot of leverage.

Knowing the emphasis that Carolina puts on their back end, I wouldn’t rule out a run at Seth Jones entirely but that’s an in-division trade for Columbus and I doubt that’s their preference.  But yeah, I think they’d kick the tires at least and someone like Brady Skjei, who has three years left at a reasonable rate for a second-pairing player, could be of some interest to the Blue Jackets.  I suspect they want to send him out West if they can, however.

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Expansion Primer: Montreal Canadiens

at CDT | by 8 Comments

Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

Back in 2017, the Canadiens lost Alexei Emelin to Vegas.  Unless they want to risk losing a notable forward this time around, history could repeat itself with Seattle likely to be interested in one of Montreal’s blueliners.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Josh Anderson, Joseph Blandisi, Paul Byron, Laurent Dauphin, Jonathan Drouin, Jake Evans, Brendan Gallagher (NMC), Charles Hudon, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Artturi Lehkonen, Michael Pezzetta, Tyler Toffoli, Lukas Vejdemo

Defense:
Ben Chiarot, Joel Edmundson, Cale Fleury, Brett Kulak, Xavier Ouellet, Jeff Petry (NMC), Shea Weber

Goalies:
Jake Allen, Michael McNiven, Carey Price (NMC)

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Joel Armia, F Phillip Danault, F Michael Frolik, D Erik Gustafsson, D Jonathon Merrill, F Corey Perry, F Eric Staal, F Tomas Tatar

Notable Exemptions

F Cole Caufield, F Ryan Poehling, G Cayden Primeau, D Alexander Romanov, F Nick Suzuki, F Jesse Ylonen

Key Decisions

The goaltending one is pretty easy.  Price will be protected and Allen, beginning a cheaper two-year deal next season, will be exposed.  He will certainly be under consideration by the Kraken.

On the back end, Petry’s no-move clause means he’ll be protected and while Weber’s contract could be viewed as enough of a deterrent to leave him exposed, his performance in the playoffs so far makes that unlikely.  It would be difficult for Montreal to leave their captain available.

If they go with the standard 7/3/1 scheme, that only leaves one spot left and a trio of interesting options to choose from.  A few years ago, Chiarot was a role player with Winnipeg and at the time he signed his three-year, $10.5MM deal with the Canadiens, it seemed like quite the overpayment.  Then he played his way onto the top pairing, a spot he maintained for a lot of this year.  He’s the only full-time skater to not record a point so far in the playoffs but he’s also averaging 25:37 per game, just one second behind Weber for the team lead.  Even though that’s not necessarily the ideal role for him, Chiarot would probably be one of Seattle’s better rearguards and with him being on an affordable expiring contract, he’s someone that could yield a notable return if they looked to flip him.

Then there’s Edmundson.  While his four-year, $14MM contract also looked like a small overpayment (especially considering the way the UFA market went), he played quite well with Petry this season and certainly solidified their top-four.  That has continued in the playoffs where he’s up over 23 minutes per game.  All of a sudden, his $3.5MM price tag for three more years could be viewed as appealing.

Kulak also warrants a mention.  His possession stats have generally been well above average but that hasn’t resulted in a lot of playing time, including in their playoff run.  But Seattle appears to be a team that is highly invested in analytics and viewed through those stats, he could be more attractive than Chiarot or Edmundson while basically being half the price.

Up front, there are four safe bets to be protected in Gallagher, Anderson, Toffoli, and Kotkaniemi.  Things get a little trickier from there, however.

The key to Montreal’s expansion strategy is Drouin.  Heading into the season, the thought of leaving him unprotected would have seemed unrealistic.  However, he struggled to score this season, scoring just twice in 44 games, hardly an ideal output from a $5.5MM contract.  He missed the end of the regular season plus all of the playoffs on a personal leave of absence, one that has yielded more questions than answers.  When will he come back?  Will he come back at all?  If he does, will it be with Montreal or will there be a trade request?  With the uncertainty surrounding his situation, his contract (which has two years left), and his struggles this season, Drouin’s trade value is arguably at an all-time low.  Would Seattle take a swing on the potential upside or would the questions scare them off, making it more beneficial to leave him unprotected?  GM Marc Bergevin will have a few more weeks to try to figure out the answers to those questions.

Evans is another potential wild card.  His NHL experience is relatively limited (just 60 career regular season games) but the 25-year-old did well in limited playoff action and is nearing a return.  He’s also signed for another year at the league minimum.  Center depth among unprotected players around the league may not be the greatest so a cheap youngster could interest Seattle GM Ron Francis.  Montreal might want to protect him but they’re a team that has a lot of unsigned players right now; to meet the requirement of two signed skaters with enough games played, he might have to be made available, especially if they don’t want to take the chance of losing Drouin.

Lehkonen is someone whose regular season potentially had him in that iffy zone of being qualified at $2.2MM with arbitration rights.  He’s undoubtedly a strong defensive forward but aside from his rookie season, he hasn’t been much of a goal scorer (although he did get the series-winner against Vegas) and the open market wasn’t kind to those players in the fall.  He has helped his value to the point where he’s probably protected in a 7/3/1 scheme but he could also be a capable checker for the Kraken if they protect the four defensemen.

Projected Protection List

F Josh Anderson
F Brendan Gallagher (NMC)
F Jesperi Kotkaniemi
F Tyler Toffoli

D Ben Chiarot
D Joel Edmundson
D Jeff Petry (NMC)
D Shea Weber

G Carey Price (NMC)

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (3): Paul Byron, Jonathan Drouin, Jake Evans
Defensemen (1): Brett Kulak

There are a few different ways that Francis could go here.  Adding Allen is certainly a safe decision; he isn’t a true number one but can still play 40-45 games and at $2.875MM, he’s on an affordable contract and would be part of the plans beyond 2021-22.  Drouin has the most upside but the highest risk of any of the skaters unprotected.  Lehkonen (who isn’t listed above since he’s a restricted free agent and the above group is only for signed players) would be a viable middle-six forward while Evans and Kulak are more under the radar options but could be picked as well.

For Montreal to switch to a 7/3/1 scheme, they need to get another forward signed.  Giving Perry a new deal and then exposing him with Byron (while protecting Drouin, Lehkonen, and Evans) would meet the exposure requirements but would also run the risk of losing Chiarot or Edmundson.  With the way they’ve played in the playoffs, whichever is left available could very well become the favorite to be selected.  While their mindset is justifiably on the Stanley Cup Final against Tampa Bay, there will need to be some decisions made soon on the expansion front.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Calgary Flames

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Free agency is now just a little more than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next summer will be more interesting for Calgary free agent-wise, but there’s still lots to do this time around.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Dillon Dube – This season was supposed to bring a breakout for Dube, and although he did set career-highs in goals and points, it certainly wasn’t the step forward many were hoping for. The 22-year-old forward saw his ice time fall once head coach Darryl Sutter took over, even sitting in the press box as a healthy scratch on occasion. Overall, he averaged less than 14 minutes a night in 2020-21, a far cry from the core piece that he is expected to become. In 51 appearances, Dube ended up with 11 goals and 22 points, still flashing top-six potential at times. But there is a lot of work to be done to gain the trust of Sutter and his contract this summer should reflect that. With just 18 goals through his first 121 games, Dube won’t be able to demand a huge raise and could maybe even be forced to settle for his qualifying offer, given he is not yet arbitration-eligible.

D Juuso Valimaki – The player that Dube shared the press box with on occasion? 22-year-old defenseman Valimaki, who was also called out by Sutter late in the season. “If they become better players, this team becomes better” was the eyebrow-raising quote from the head coach in May, after another Valimaki healthy scratch. The 2017 first-round pick ended up averaging just over 15 minutes a night in 49 games, putting him behind even depth options like Michael Stone and Nikita Nesterov. Because Valimaki missed the entire 2019-20 season due to injury, he actually will actually have even more restrictions this summer. He is not eligible for an offer sheet and is not eligible for arbitration, meaning just like Dube, he may have to settle for his qualifying offer if the two sides don’t work out a multi-year deal.

Other RFAs: F Glenn Gawdin, F Dominik Simon, F Justin Kirkland, F Matthew Phillips, F Luke Philp, D Oliver Kylington, D Connor Mackey, D Carl-Johan Lerby, D Alexander Yelesin, D Colton Poolman, G Tyler Parsons, G Artyom Zagidulin

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Derek Ryan – If Ryan is the most important free agent forward you are at risk of losing you’re in a good spot, but he’s actually an interesting extension candidate for the Flames. The 34-year-old center is still a capable penalty killer and you could do far worse for a fourth-line center, but his real value would come in the expansion draft, where Calgary needs players to fill the exposure requirements upfront. While it sounds like Milan Lucic will be waiving his no-movement clause to fill one spot, the team will need one of the other regulars from this season to sign a deal in the coming weeks.

G Louis Domingue – It’s not really that Domingue is a must-sign player for the Flames, but he represents a position that will need to be filled somehow. The team has Jacob Markstrom locked in as the starter, but they will need a backup goaltender that can help give him some time off or even take the net for a little while. David Rittich, who was supposed to be that option, was traded at the deadline, and Domingue likely isn’t the answer. While he does have a .904 save percentage in 140 NHL appearances, that number is boosted by some early-career stats. Over the past two seasons, he has posted an .882 in 18 games, certainly not enough to play tandem to Markstrom.

Other UFAs: F Brett Ritchie, F Buddy Robinson, F Josh Leivo, F Zac Rinaldo, D Michael Stone, D Nikita Nesterov, D Alex Petrovic

Projected Cap Space

One of the most interesting parts of the offseason for Calgary is how they deal with their big-ticket players who haven’t yet rewarded the team with much playoff success. The Flames have nearly $67MM tied up in just 13 contracts for the 2021-22 season, meaning they have less than $15MM to round out the rest of the roster. With Johnny Gaudreau and Mark Giordano set to hit unrestricted free agency next summer, Sean Monahan, and Lucic the year after, there will be money coming off the books in short order. If any of those contracts are moved out, the team could get a jump on things by being aggressive in free agency this year, knowing there will be a bit more flexibility down the road.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Buffalo Sabres

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Free agency is now just a little more than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Buffalo’s biggest question mark this summer is obviously the fate of the captain, but there are several other pending free agents that also need to be dealt with.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Sam Reinhart – The trade speculation surrounding Jack Eichel has somewhat hidden any Reinhart news, but make no mistake he is also being discussed around the league. Despite being just 25, the RFA forward will be an unrestricted free agent after next season because he has already played six full seasons in the NHL. While he has never quite lived up to the second-overall billing of true franchise-changing star, there’s something to be said for Reinhart’s consistent production on a lackluster team. In five of his six seasons, he has recorded at least 22 goals, even tying his career-high of 25 this year in just 54 games. Reinhart has blown the rest of the Sabres out of the water year after year in possession statistics, and there is a real chance that he could explode into a game-changing presence if surrounded by more talent. Buffalo knows this (or should, at least) and will be holding out for a high price, but there is a ticking clock on the pending RFA. Reinhart can simply go to arbitration with the Sabres this season, receive a raise on the $5.2MM he earned in 2020-21 and then walk if he decides to pursue other opportunities. That would be a real miss on the part of the Buffalo front office, meaning a multi-year extension or a trade seem like the only reasonable options this summer.

F Casey Mittelstadt – If only Mittelstadt had developed the way many expected, Buffalo may not be in the situation they are now. The eighth overall pick from 2017 has still not really established himself as a full-time NHL player, even if this season was a legitimate step forward. In 155 career games he has recorded 61 points, a tough total to swallow when you look at that 2017 draft board and see the likes of Martin Necas and Nick Suzuki selected just a few picks later. Still, there are still plenty of reasons to stay the course with the 22-year-old center and given the fact that he is not yet arbitration-eligible, the Sabres should still get him signed at a reasonable price. There is always the threat of an offer sheet for a young player like Mittelstadt, but in today’s flat cap world it seems extremely unlikely.

D Rasmus Dahlin – In fact, if there was a Sabres RFA to target with an offer sheet, perhaps it would be Dahlin. The first-overall pick from 2018’s entry-level deal is up and he now approaches a negotiation with 107 points in 197 games. Sure, there are real question marks around parts of Dahlin’s game, but the 21-year-old defenseman has still been extremely productive in his first few years. In fact, since he entered the league, Dahlin ranks 20th among all NHL defensemen in points, ahead of players like Zach Werenski, Seth Jones, and Aaron Ekblad. No, he did not have a good 2020-21 season, but the Sabres would be absolutely foolish to be doing anything but locking in Dahlin long-term as soon as possible. He should be part of the solution, not the problem in Buffalo. The question is how long will the player want to go with a contract, coming off such a down year? It does seem to make sense for Dahlin’s camp to push for a bridge contract and then really cash in after his offensive numbers rebound. That delicate dance is what Sabres GM Kevyn Adams will have to navigate as he tries to get Buffalo pointed in the right direction.

Other RFAs: F Rasmus Asplund, F Dawson DiPietro, D William Borgen, D Henri Jokiharju, D Casey Fitzgerald, G Stefanos Lekkas

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D Jake McCabe – Normally, McCabe would feature prominently in any offseason plans, given his place as a leader on the Sabres. The 27-year-old defenseman has played his entire NHL career in Buffalo to this point, totalling 353 games over parts of eight seasons. Unfortunately, McCabe suffered a major knee injury earlier this year, with damage to his ACL, MCL and meniscus. He was given a recovery timeline between six and eight months in February, meaning there’s a chance he’s ready for the start of next season, but who knows what kind of player is coming back. The Sabres should have the best insight into his recovery, so perhaps a contract extension in Buffalo makes sense. There is a feeling of dramatic change surrounding the team right now though, so cutting ties with a player who has been there through all the losing could make sense.

G Linus Ullmark – This is the real question among unrestricted free agents for the Sabres, as without Ullmark they don’t really have an NHL goaltender for the 2021-22 season. Partner Carter Hutton is also headed for the open market but is now 35 and coming off two brutal seasons. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is the obvious choice as “goaltender of the future” but has just four NHL appearances under his belt. The Sabres have been clear in the fact that they would like to keep Ullmark around, even deciding not to trade him at the deadline in order to continue negotiations. But there’s no deal in place yet, and free agency is creeping closer and closer. In 117 appearances with the Sabres, the 27-year-old Ullmark has posted a .912 save percentage. If he can play that well behind a poor team, there’s good reason to believe that he can be a legitimate playoff-level starter in the NHL. That of course will be known by his representatives too, meaning the Sabres will have to cough up more than the $2.6MM Ullmark made this season in order to keep him in Buffalo.

Other UFAs: F Tobias Rieder, F Riley Sheahan, F Drake Caggiula, F Jean-Sebastien Dea, F Steven Fogarty, F C.J. Smith, D Matt Irwin, D Brandon Davidson, G Carter Hutton, G Michael Houser

Projected Cap Space

The Sabres are one of the worst teams in the league and they also have a pair of terrible contracts on the books. Jeff Skinner and Kyle Okposo combine for a $15MM cap hit this year and next (with Skinner’s $9MM hit lasting long after Okposo’s expires), meaning the $34MM in space listed is a bit deceiving. That’s more than $47MM in salary committed to just ten players for next season and not many of them are all that good. With new deals for so many restricted free agents to come, the cap is going to become a challenge for Buffalo even before dipping into the unrestricted free agent waters. Of course, if trades for Eichel and Rasmus Ristolainen eventually happen, the financial situation looks a lot more reasonable.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Boston Bruins

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Free agency is now just a little more than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Boston is set to have several core players hit the open market, giving them a lot of payroll flexibility to work with in the coming weeks.

Key Restricted Free Agents

D Brandon Carlo – Carlo isn’t going to win any scoring titles but he has been a reliable stay-at-home defenseman throughout his five years in Boston and his absence was certainly felt when multiple upper-body injuries kept him out of the lineup for big stretches in the second half of the season plus the last few games of their series against the Islanders.  He’s owed a $3.5MM qualifying offer next month and despite limited offensive production, they should be comfortable tendering it.  However, it’s also hard to see him getting much more than that despite being arbitration-eligible unless they work out a long-term pact that buys out his two remaining RFA years plus several seasons of UFA eligibility.

F Nick Ritchie – While it wasn’t a career year from a points perspective, the 25-year-old set a new career-high in goals with 15 while surpassing the 15 minute per game mark for the first time.  Consistency has long been an issue for the 2014 tenth-overall selection but Ritchie certainly took some steps in the right direction.  His qualifying offer is set at $2MM while he has arbitration eligibility for the first time as well.  He took enough strides this season that he should be tendered but he doesn’t have enough of a track record to seek much more than that.

F Ondrej Kase – Kase is being mentioned simply because it would be stunning to see him be tendered next month.  He was limited to just three games this season due to multiple upper-body injuries and had struggled over his previous two seasons as well.  That’s not worth a $2.6MM offer in this market; Boston would be wise to put use money elsewhere.

Other RFAs: F Trent Frederic, F Cameron Hughes, F Joona Koppanen, F Robert Lantosi, F Zachary Senyshyn, D Nick Wolff

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Taylor Hall – For the second straight year, the 29-year-old will be one of the more prominent players on the open market.  However, there’s no doubt that his value has taken a nosedive along the way after struggling mightily in Buffalo as his plans to have a strong season and then sign with more teams showing interest didn’t go as well as planned.  He facilitated a trade to Boston at the deadline and turned things around down the stretch and in the playoffs which will certainly help his cause in free agency.  That is, assuming he gets there.  Hall and the Bruins have openly expressed a mutual interest in getting another deal done and unless Hall’s asking price is too high, there should be a good chance of getting something in place although it will be a fair bit lower than the $8MM he made this season.

F David Krejci – Unlike Hall whose time in Boston has been limited, Krejci has been a fixture in their lineup for the past 14 years and has been their second-line center for a significant portion of that.  The 35-year-old has been a steady offensive presence and showed no signs of slowing down this season, notching 44 points in 51 games.  There has also been publicly stated mutual interest in getting a deal in place with Krejci saying he can’t see himself playing for a different NHL team than the Bruins.  He’s also facing a dip in pay as it’s quite unlikely he’ll match the $7.25MM AAV he has had for each of the past six seasons.

G Tuukka Rask – Wouldn’t you know it, here’s another veteran who has made it clear he wants to stay in Boston and has no intention of going anywhere else.  The difference is that Rask won’t be available for the first half of next season after undergoing hip surgery.  It’s obvious he’ll be facing a significant cut from his $7MM AAV from the past eight years but the question is whether or not they can afford to run with a short-term partner for youngster Jeremy Swayman or whether they’ll need a full-season piece which could then take Rask out of the equation.  If they do look for a full-season option, Jaroslav Halak, another Boston UFA, could be an option to return.

D Mike Reilly – Another trade deadline acquisition, Reilly played a big role after being acquired, averaging over 21 minutes per game down the stretch and in the playoffs.  Not bad for someone that had barely averaged 16 minutes a night over his first five NHL seasons.  The 27-year-old also had a career year offensively, collecting 27 assists in 55 games.  His stock has certainly gone up from being a role player who could have been in tough to match his $1.5MM price tag to one that quietly could generate a fair amount of interest on the open market.  And yes, Reilly has also publicly expressed an interest in returning.

Other UFAs: D Steven Kampfer, F Sean Kuraly, F Greg McKegg, D Kevan Miller, D Jarred Tinordi

Projected Cap Space

With so many veterans on expiring deals, Boston currently has a little over $31MM in cap room for next season and even after re-signing their restricted free agents, they’ll have plenty of space to work with.  However, they also will have several spots to fill.  Whether it’s re-signing the veterans that want to stick around or replacing them with similar players, GM Don Sweeney is in for a very busy summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Edmonton Oilers

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league missing the playoffs and several more having since been eliminated.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Edmonton.

Things were looking up for the Oilers during the regular season.  Their offensive stars were carrying the load offensively, the defense was holding up despite missing Oscar Klefbom, and Mike Smith had his best season in nearly a decade.  Unfortunately for Edmonton, that all meant nothing in the playoffs as they were swept by Winnipeg.  Now GM Ken Holland enters the summer with plenty to accomplish as he looks to retain some key players and add some much-needed improvements to his roster.

Upgrade The Bottom Six

By the time Holland takes care of re-signing or replacing his notable free agents (more on them shortly), there won’t be much in the way of cap space to work with so adding a significant piece to the core is unlikely.  However, Edmonton’s bottom-six depth has been poor in recent years, largely consisting of overpaid veterans, underachieving role players, or international flyers that didn’t really pan out.

Last fall, the market showed that there were some bargains to be had in terms of adding capable veterans for close to the league minimum.  With the market basically the same as it was a year ago with many teams having limited wiggle room, those players will be in demand again so it’s a good thing the Oilers can dangle the opportunity of playing on the same team as Connor McDavid; that has to count for something.  While retaining some of the existing depth makes sense (such as the recent re-signing of Devin Shore), Holland would be wise to keep some cap and roster room available to upgrade their forward depth.

Address The Goaltending

After a strong season that hardly anyone saw coming, Smith is set to return to the UFA market in a much better situation.  Back in the fall, he was effectively Edmonton’s fallback plan with his return coming after other avenues were tried first.  Given his age (39), that certainly could happen again as Holland needs to look for a longer-term fit.  Their prospects aren’t ready to step into the number one role and probably won’t be a year from now.  Is it justifiable to bring him back knowing that they’d only be delaying addressing a problem that has been around for a while?  It all depends on whether or not recent history repeats itself.  If they can’t find a longer-term option on the free agent or trade markets, Smith’s return would go over better than it did in October but considering he has the second-best save percentage among UFA goalies, it might cost more than a $1.5MM base salary and $500K in bonuses to get something done.

In the meantime, Mikko Koskinen still has one year at $4.5MM remaining on his contract that is probably going to be best remembered for former GM Peter Chiarelli being fired two days after agreeing to that deal.  He’s coming off a tough year and while he shows flashes of being a capable goaltender, he has also been wildly inconsistent to the point where it will be difficult to rely on him.  Alex Stalock is a much more affordable backup but he didn’t play this season after developing a heart issue following a bout with COVID-19.  Can he be counted on to play at an NHL level after being off for so long?

There are several questions that need to be answered here from the starter to the backup but that’s basically par for the course in recent years.

Re-Sign Or Replace Key Veterans

Part of the reason that Edmonton has a little more than $20MM in cap space is that they have several key players that are set to hit the open market.  Those players will either need to be re-signed or replaced.

At the top of the list is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.  The 28-year-old has spent the past 10 seasons with Edmonton and while he never turned into a star player that his first-overall draft status would suggest, he has been an important player for the Oilers throughout his tenure.  Nugent-Hopkins spent most of his career down the middle although he has spent more time on the wing in recent years in an effort to give him more playing time and he responded with career years in 2018-19 and 2019-20.  Contract talks broke off a little while back but have since resumed.  Even in this marketplace, it seems likely that Nugent-Hopkins will wind up with a price tag that is similar to the $6MM AAV he has had for the past seven years.

Meanwhile, a pair of notable blueliners are set to hit the open market as well.  Tyson Barrie’s decision to take a bit less to go to Edmonton certainly paid off as he led all NHL rearguards in scoring with 48 points in 56 games which was a nice rebound from a tough year in Toronto in 2019-20.  However, he was signed with Oscar Klefbom’s money knowing that he was out for the season.  That determination hasn’t been made yet for Klefbom for next season so if they enter free agency thinking that he will be on the books, they will be hard-pressed to afford Barrie at what should be a decent-sized raise from his $3.75MM salary this season.

The other defenseman of note is Adam Larsson.  While he never emerged as the top-pairing player Edmonton was hoping for when they moved Taylor Hall for him, the 28-year-old nonetheless has become a strong stay-at-home defender who can comfortably play on the second pairing.  His limited offense will cap his earnings upside and he may not be able to reach the $4.166MM AAV he had on this deal but it should be somewhat close.  Discussions on that front are set to resume soon.

Re-signing these three (or even two of them if they think Klefbom could return) will take up most of their remaining cap room and if they don’t return, Holland will have to act quickly to find replacements.

Buyout Decisions

If Edmonton wants to free up some extra wiggle room this summer, they have a pair of players who could be plausible buyout candidates.  Koskinen is one of them and doing so would save them $3MM in cap space for next season (while adding $1.5MM to the books for 2022-23).

The other option is winger James Neal.  The veteran had just five goals and five assists in 29 games which is hardly an optimal return on a $5.75MM cap hit.  With two years left on his contract, buying him out would have the 33-year-old on the books for four more years at $1.917MM but in the short term, it’d save them more than $3.8MM for the next two years.  They can find a replacement for considerably less than that, giving them some extra flexibility this summer.

While it would add more money to the books down the road, they also have just seven players signed beyond 2021-22 and four past 2022-23.  That can be worked around and the short-term benefits of the move will certainly be tempting for Holland.  The window to go this route starts after the Stanley Cup Final although, with expansion also on the horizon, a lot of the buyouts may come after Seattle picks their team.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Arizona Coyotes

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Free agency is now just a little more than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Nearly the entire starting defense corps is about to hit the open market, meaning there are big changes coming in Arizona.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Conor Garland – Over the last few seasons, Garland has gone from fifth-round afterthought to arguably the most important forward on the entire Coyotes roster. The 25-year-old followed up a 22-goal 2019-20 season with another 39 points in 49 games this year, trailing only Phil Kessel for the team lead among forwards. His dynamic puck skills and edge work have resulted in outstanding possession numbers ever since he made it to the NHL and there’s good reason to believe he could put up even bigger offensive totals moving forward. Garland played most of the season with Nick Schmaltz but saw a rotating cast of other linemates throughout the year. The question now is whether the Coyotes will be able to lock down Garland with a long-term deal, buying out some unrestricted free agent years, or have to go to arbitration and settle with another short-term contract. He’s coming off a two-year deal that carried an average annual value of just $775K, so it would make sense for Garland’s camp to want a big raise.

G Adin Hill – There was a time a few seasons ago when Hill appeared to be in line to take over the crease in Arizona. The third-round pick made his NHL debut in 2017 at the age of 21, making 31 saves in a losing effort. Standing 6’6″ it was easy to see how he could become an elite starting goaltender at the next level, but now several years later he only has 49 appearances under his belt. Now arbitration-eligible and just two years from unrestricted free agency, the team will have to decide whether Hill is once again the plan for the next several years. Darcy Kuemper, the only other NHL goaltender under contract will be a UFA in a year’s time and has always had trouble staying healthy. Committing to Hill this summer may be the right choice, even if it does cost them a little bit more per season than he would get through the arbitration process.

Other RFAs: F Dryden Hunt, F John Hayden, F Lane Pederson, F Blake Speers, F Nate Sucese, F Frederik Gauthier, F Tyler Steenbergen, F Brayden Burke, D Dysin Mayo, D Cam Dineen

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

G Antti Raanta – Of course, the reason Kuemper is the only other goaltender under contract is that Raanta is about to hit the open market. The 32-year-old netminder still has a .919 career save percentage, but that number was brought down by his .905 this season. The fact that he hasn’t been able to stay healthy for consecutive seasons is a huge red flag, especially as he gets closer to his mid-thirties. Sure, there’s a reason to bring Raanta back on a reasonable deal, but with Hill ready to take his place as a tandem starter and other prospects in the wings, the veteran netminder may be looking for a different address next month.

F Michael Bunting – Some around the league believe that Bunting is ready to break out and could be one of this summer’s most savvy pickups. The 25-year-old scored 10 goals and 13 points in 21 games this season for Arizona, adding another 19 points in 16 AHL contests. That belief may have been a bit shaken when Bunting went completely scoreless in ten games at the World Championships, but there will surely be teams willing to take a chance. The Group VI unrestricted free agent actually prefers to stay in Arizona, but given that there is no deal in place yet, it suggests he is going to at least test the free agent market to see what is out there.

The Defense – The entire UFA section in this article could just be a list of defenders, given how many Coyotes are scheduled to hit the open market. Jason Demers, Alex Goligoski, Jordan Oesterle and Niklas Hjalmarsson are all pending UFAs and it isn’t clear if any of them will be back. The biggest question really is Goligoski, who paired with rising star Jakob Chychrun for most of this season, helping the young defenseman to a career year. Now 35, Goligoski still averaged 23 minutes a night as a steady two-way option and even produced 22 points in 56 games. Replacing him, especially if the Coyotes are also going to move Oliver Ekman-Larsson, will leave a gaping hole on the back end with no clear answer under contract. Demers, Oesterle and Hjalmarsson have all kind of merged into the same 17-minute-a-night defensive option, that doesn’t bring much offense and doesn’t have a lot of upside. Any of them could reenergize their careers with a fresh start somewhere else, or continue to fill out the depth chart on reasonable short-term deals in the desert.

Other UFAs: F Derick Brassard, F Marian Hossa, F Hudson Fasching, F Michael Chaput, D Aaron Ness, D Jordan Gross

Projected Cap Space

Even though they have been technically up against the cap in the past, that was mostly due to the Coyotes taking on contracts like Hossa’s in order to gather assets. The team is not normally known as a big spender and has more than $31MM to work with this offseason. Of course, they’ll need to fill half a roster with that money, not the easiest of tasks. Getting Ekman-Larsson’s contract off the books would be huge for the team, given the value-cost equation that is seemingly getting worse by the year. GM Bill Armstrong has a very busy summer ahead of him but plenty of roster spots to work with.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly. 

Free Agent Focus: Anaheim Ducks

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Free agency is now just a little more than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Several pieces of Anaheim’s young forward group need new deals as does a franchise icon.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Maxime Comtois – Very quietly, Comtois led the Ducks in scoring this season.  That wasn’t expected at all heading into the year considering he had all of 39 career games played but he secured a spot in the top six and became a quality power forward.  In the end, the 22-year-old wound up with 15 goals and 18 assists in 55 games, a more than respectable total on a team that struggled mightily at the offensive end.  While it won’t affect his contract talks, his strong play carried over to the Worlds where he picked up six more points there.  Comtois doesn’t have arbitration eligibility and with only 94 NHL games under his belt, he doesn’t have the track record to command a long-term deal.  A bridge contract around the $2.5MM to $2.75MM mark feels like the expected outcome here allowing both sides to see what his long-term offensive upside will be.

F Danton Heinen – His fall from grace has been quick.  After looking like a good fit as a secondary scorer in Boston for the first couple of years of his career, his offense tapered off last season and went even lower this year as he had just seven goals and seven assists in 43 games.  The 25-year-old is eligible for arbitration and owed a qualifying offer of $2.775MM.  It’s hard to see him getting that so either a cheaper deal is worked out or he’ll be an interesting addition to the UFA market.

F Alexander Volkov – There are quite a few young Anaheim RFAs in similar situations but Volkov is a bit different in that he has arbitration eligibility.  The 23-year-old requested a trade from Tampa Bay to go somewhere where he had a better chance to play and the Ducks gave him that.  His ice time went up by more than four minutes per game and with four goals and four assists in 18 games, so too did his production.  This isn’t a situation where the team should be leery of his ability to request a hearing but it will be interesting to see how much his short time in Anaheim will impact those discussions.

Other RFAs: F Max Jones, F Isac Lundestrom, D Josh Mahura, F Sam Steel

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Ryan Getzlaf – It’s clear that Getzlaf’s best days are behind him and at this stage of his career, he should be on the third or fourth line most nights and not a fixture in the top-six as he was for the better part of his 16 years with the Ducks.  But he’s still a useful player and in a free agent market where there isn’t any star power down the middle (the same can’t be said for the trade market), there should be a fair bit of interest if he’s willing to move on from Anaheim.  That’s the big question as he had made it clear before he’d invoke his no-move clause to be dealt.  That wasn’t the case at this trade deadline but his $8.25MM price tag made that next to impossible anyway.  His next contract should come somewhere between a quarter and a third of that AAV.

F Carter Rowney – This season was basically a write-off as a torn meniscus ended his season back in February.  However, in his three years with the Ducks, he showed that he was capable of playing a bigger role than he had at the beginning of his career with Pittsburgh.  Now 32 and in a market that isn’t kind to role players, Rowney probably won’t be able to match the $1.133MM AAV he had on this deal but as far as physical depth players go, he will be one of the better ones out there.

F Andrew Poturalski – This is a name that many won’t be familiar with as his NHL track record is extremely limited (two games in 2017).  However, the 27-year-old has been a top scorer in the AHL when healthy.  He led the league in scoring this season with 43 points in 44 games and back in 2018-19 (he was injured for most of 2019-20), he was fifth in the league in scoring with Charlotte (70 points in 72 games) and first in playoff scoring (23 points in 18 contests).  It will be interesting to see if teams are more hesitant to hand out a one-way deal to top AHL talent as a cost-cutting measure but if some are, Poturalski should be the recipient of such a contract.

Other UFAs: F Andrew Agozzino, F David Backes, F Sam Carrick, D Trevor Carrick, F Chase De Leo, F Vinni Lettieri, D Andy Welinski

Projected Cap Space

Anaheim has been fairly tight to the cap for a while now but that will change with Getzlaf and Backes’ deals coming off the books and Corey Perry’s buyout cost dropping from $6.625MM to a more manageable $2MM.  All of a sudden, they have ample room to work with just under $59MM on the books.

Having said that, they have seven or eight spots to fill as well and of their pending free agents, Comtois should be the most expensive but still at a reasonable rate.  That should allow them to be an impact buyer over the coming weeks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

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