Free agency is now just a little more than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up. There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. The Avalanche have their captain to sign, but he isn’t even the most important deal they have to complete.
Key Restricted Free Agents
F Tyson Jost – Not the first player you think of when you think of pending free agents on the Avalanche, but an important negotiation just the same. Jost, 23, is an interesting case study to watch this summer after signing his qualifying offer last year. For one thing, he is now arbitration-eligible, meaning the negotiation will be taken out of their hands if necessary, but the young forward has still not taken the developmental step that many expected. Selected 10th overall in 2016, Jost quickly became a regular in the Colorado lineup, but has failed to record more than 26 points in a single season. His average ice time increased this year to over 14 minutes, but he still had just seven goals and 17 points to show for it. Can he be a long-term piece in the middle-six, or will Jost try to maximize earnings by reaching free agency as quickly as possible? Because he has already completed four seasons, he’s just three years away from unrestricted free agency and won’t have to wait until he’s 27.
D Cale Makar – This is the player that everyone is watching in Colorado as he gets set for his first contract negotiation. Makar has played two seasons in the NHL and could very well have two major trophies to show for it. After winning the Calder in year one, he is a finalist for the Norris Trophy as the league’s best defenseman in just his sophomore campaign. There’s a very real argument to be made that he is the most valuable defenseman in the league right now and a contract indicative of that is likely coming down the pipe. As Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet wrote yesterday, any talk of long-term extensions will have to start at Thomas Chabot’s eight-year, $64MM extension in 2019 and go up from there. Makar (along with fellow young stars Miro Heiskanen and Quinn Hughes) is ahead of Chabot in terms of early-career success and any new contract could end up making him one of the highest-paid defenseman in the league straight out of his entry-level deal. Currently, there are only four defensemen in the league with an average annual value of $9MM or more; Erik Karlsson ($11.5MM), Drew Doughty ($11.0MM), Roman Josi ($9.06MM), and P.K. Subban ($9.0MM). If the Avalanche want to go max-term with Makar, that group is almost certainly going to grow.
Other RFAs: F Kiefer Sherwood, F Travis Barron, F Ty Lewis, D Dennis Gilbert, D Conor Timmins, G Peyton Jones, G Adam Werner
Key Unrestricted Free Agents
F Gabriel Landeskog – A second-overall pick steps directly into the NHL, wins the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie, and is named captain before his sophomore season. That’s how Landeskog’s story started, and ten years into his career he has established himself as a true franchise icon. Even though there have been other players that take the spotlight at times, the 28-year-old winger has been a constant driving force behind any success the Avalanche have experienced and already sits among the franchise greats on many all-time lists. Seventh in games played, sixth in goals, eighth in points, even if Landeskog doesn’t play another game in an Avalanche sweater, he has made quite the impact on the franchise. That’s why it seems so unlikely that they let him go at this point, especially after another outstanding season.
The problem is that there is only so much money, and given how big of a contract Makar is looking at, the Avalanche won’t be dealing with a ton of cap space. Landeskog scored 52 points in 54 games this season and is the kind of physical, heart-and-soul player that would be coveted by every other team in the league. If he wants to check the open market there will be plenty of suitors waiting to snatch him up. That includes the Seattle Kraken, who will get a chance to speak with him ahead of everyone else should Landeskog still not be signed by 48 hours before the expansion draft. It seems entirely reasonable to assume Colorado already has a deal done with Landeskog that will be announced after that expansion draft is completed, but until those papers are filed, other teams can certainly dream.
G Philipp Grubauer – Oh that cap space problem? Don’t forget that the Avalanche don’t currently have a starting goaltender for next season, as their Vezina finalist is also a pending UFA. Grubauer put together the best season of his career at the perfect time, recording a .922 save percentage in 40 appearances. Though he has put up those kinds of save numbers in the past, one of the biggest questions that followed him was whether he could carry the load of a true starting goaltender. Well, strapping on the pads for 40/56 games in a condensed schedule certainly answers that question, especially when it results in 30 wins. Of course, there was a few slip-ups in the postseason, which may cause teams to hesitate when drawing up a long-term contract, but there is still little doubt that Grubauer will receive a substantial raise on the three-year, $10MM deal he signed in 2018. Still just 29, he is Colorado’s best option and at the same time could have played himself out of their price range.
Other UFAs: F Brandon Saad, F Liam O’Brien, F Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, F Matt Calvert, F T.J. Tynan, F Mike Vecchione, F Sheldon Dries, D Patrik Nemeth, D Kyle Burroughs, D Dan Renouf, G Devan Dubnyk
Projected Cap Space
The good news: Colorado has nearly $25.5MM in cap space. The bad news: the rest is owed to just 11 players. Normally, players like Saad and Timmins would be front and center on any examination of pending free agents, but on the Avalanche they are secondary to the big fish that need new deals. GM Joe Sakic simply isn’t going to be able to keep everyone around to run back the same group in 2021-22, meaning difficult decisions will have to be made. Can they fit in a long-term deal for Makar alongside healthy extensions for Landeskog and Grubauer? What kind of cap space will that leave them with to fill out the rest of the roster? One important factor is the health and future of Erik Johnson, who ended the year on long-term injured reserve. He played just four games this season and though he skated with the team, didn’t appear in the postseason. His $6MM cap hit could be extremely useful to the Avalanche in other areas, but he’s also an important part of the leadership group in Colorado.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Yeah, basically they’re screwed unless they talk Landeskog, Makar and Grubauer into “home team” discounts. That and they’re going to hope Seattle takes a Kadri, Compher or Graves off of their hands.
Also, bite the bullet: buy out Johnson. That’s a $4 million savings this year and the next.
As much as I disagree with Nha Trang he’s right, Bednar is under contract for next season. But on a positive look for both Gabe and Cale to take home town discounts. Gabe because he’s a die hard Avs fan and Cale because he’s as loyal as they come.