Will The Red Wings Be Buyers or Sellers?
A couple wins over quality teams may have offered a glimmer of hope for the Detroit Red Wings playoff chances but barring an insane Columbus-like winning streak, all signs point to Detroit coming up short of a 26th straight appearance. Despite roaring back to beat Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburgh Saturday evening, and then shutting out Montreal 1-0 on Monday, the Wings are hardly in the thick of things. If anything, the latest two victories, which put several young players in the spotlight, indicates why the Red Wings must get younger while giving the current young players on the squad a chance to compete.
Despite this, Ken Holland made a comment to TSN 690 that veteran players can have “off nights” because of stock built from previous performance. From the article:
Jeff Blashill and I talk about this quite often — Henrik Zetterberg is an example. He’s built up stock. It’s like you’re in a company,” Holland explained. “When you build up stock and you have an off night, all the stock you’ve built up allows you to have those nights when, as a veteran player, you maybe have an off night. When you’re a young player you can’t have off nights because you don’t have that stock built up, you haven’t done enough to help the team win through time.”
The logic is faulty in that young players will have off nights-simply because they’re young. Further, without Anthony Mantha or Andreas Athanasiou, it’s a wonder how much further down the Red Wings would be in the standings. Players like Jonathan Ericsson, Riley Sheahan, and Danny DeKeyser have struggled mightily this season, and don’t have the resume of a Zetterberg. Yet their minutes, and presence in the lineup, have remained consistent whereas Athanasiou has been scratched for sins only known to Blashill and Holland.
While Holland still has an eye on the playoffs, despite only an 11% chance of making them, here are a few players Holland may want to dangle at the deadline.
Vanek may be one of Holland’s better free agent pickups in the salary cap era, second only to Marian Hossa back in 2008. Vanek has nearly been a point-per-game player, and could be a missing piece for a slew of playoff teams looking to bolster its run at a Stanley Cup. Winging It In Motown had a detailed write up on what Vanek could garner and why he should be considered a prime piece to move.
In a weaker trade market, and looking at what some rentals garnered at last season’s deadline, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Vanek snares a 1st round pick or significant prospect.
Going back to Winging It In Motown, they target the other valuable asset, defenseman Mike Green. Green (another solid Holland pickup) does have a no-trade clause, but a chance to win a Cup may change his mind should the Wings continue to slip out of playoff range. Green has been better for the Wings this season, already tallying 20 points (8-12) in 36 games. An offensive minded defenseman, Green would be an asset on the power play, and for the Wings, could yield quite the haul, possibly a 1st round pick for interested teams.
The next few weeks should reveal the Wings true standing. But taking a run at “the streak” instead of reloading for the future may be something that haunts the Wings for years to come.
Head Coaches Potentially On The Hot Seat
As we pass the halfway point of the 2016-17 schedule, teams will soon have to make the sometimes difficult decision as to whether they are going to act as a buyer or seller ahead of the March 1st trade deadline. Additionally, teams that have underachieved their internal preseason expectations will take the time to look in the mirror and assess what they can do to improve their on-ice fortunes, both for the remainder of the current campaign and into the future. Sometimes that assessment leads to coaching changes.
Though just one bench boss has been relieved of his duties so far this season, several more could soon join Gerard Gallant on the unemployment line. In this post we’ll examine the situations of several coaches who would appear to be on the hot seat at this point in the 2016-17 season.
Jack Capuano (New York Islanders) – The Islanders have been one of the biggest disappointments this season, just one year after making it to the second-round of the playoffs for the first time in more than two decades. Currently residing in last place in the Metro Division and tied for the lowest points total in the East, the Islanders under Garth Snow have generally exercised patience with their head coach. In five full seasons behind the Islanders bench, Capuano has missed the postseason twice and has two first-round playoff defeats on his record. Other teams might have already pulled the plug on the coach. It’s not necessarily fair to assign all of the blame for the team’s underachievment this year on Capuano as Snow allowed two key players – Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen – to leave via free agency this past summer, and the players he inked to help replace them – Andrew Ladd and Jason Chimera – haven’t played well. Capuano has also had the unenviable task of trying to manage a three-headed monster in goal for much of the season until Jaroslav Halak was reassigned to Bridgeport after clearing waivers. With franchise player John Tavares nearing unrestricted free agency, the pressure to turn in a deep playoff run to help convince their captain to sign on long term has to be growing.
[Update: Capuano has been relieved of his coaching duties by the team.]
Dave Tippett (Arizona Coyotes) – It seems unlikely that just a year after being given more power and some influence over player personnel that the Coyotes would move on from their longtime head coach. Yet nonetheless, the struggles in Arizona will assuredly mean some changes are made and it’s always possible ownership in Arizona reverses course and moves on from Tippett. After all, it seems likely some improvement over their 78-point 2015-16 campaign was expected and with just 32 points to date, those improvements simply haven’t been there.
Paul Maurice (Winnipeg Jets) – The Jets certainly have talent in the form of Mark Scheifele, Dustin Byfuglien and Blake Wheeler – among others – but the team has been maddeningly inconsistent this year. Some observers believe the Jets have a tough time sticking to their system and structure and that doesn’t speak well of Maurice. But, the absence of a true number one goaltender is another one of the issues stifling the team’s success and that’s not the fault of the head coach. Maurice has also integrated a number of younger players into the linuep during his tenure in Manitoba, allowing management to get a better sense as to the real quality of their yong talent. Ownership in Winnipeg has a reputation of being patient when it comes to making decisions and will likely give the veteran coach another season to see what he can do.
Claude Julien (Boston Bruins) – The Bruins are currently in second place in the Atlantic and if they end up qualifying for the postseason, it’s likely the team refrains from making a change behind the bench. But three teams – Florida, Ottawa and Toronto – are just three points behind Boston in the standings and all have games-in-hand, meaning there is a real possibility the Bruins could miss the postseason tournament for the third consecutive season.
Vancouver bench boss Willie Desjardins, who has been thought to be on the hot seat for much of the season, would seem to be safe for the time being with the Canucks in the mix for a playoff berth.
Central Division Snapshots: Blackhawks, Avalanche, Korpikoski
The Chicago Blackhawks roster still boasts many of the key contributors who have led the team to three Stanley Cup championships since 2010. And as long as Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith and Corey Crawford are healthy, the Hawks will be on the short list of Western Conference contenders even as the front office constantly juggles the rest of the roster to augment that core while remaining compliant with the salary cap.
That doesn’t mean the Blackhawks aren’t in need of reinforcements as the March 1st trade deadline approaches, however. Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun Times argues Chicago desperately needs a top left wing in order to help pull Toews out of his season long scoring slump. For his career, Toews has averaged 0.86 points/game but so far this season he is nearly three-tenths-of-a-point behind that rate. Lazerus believes that the acquisition of a proven top-six winger would allow Vinnie Hinostroza to slot into the team’s bottom-six, further bolstering that group. In conjunction with the expected return of Marcus Kruger, the Blackhawks would be able to ice four solid and balanced lines in this scenario.
Lazerus lists Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog, who have both been frequently mentioned in trade rumors of late, as two potential options. Though given the team’s current salary cap situation – $65.7MM in commitments to just 14 players – it’s far more likely that Chicago will stick to shopping in the rental bin as opposed to adding a player with term remaining beyond this season.
James van Riemsdyk was also listed by Lazerus as a possibility though Toronto would likely hold onto the winger as long as they remain in the hunt for a playoff spot. He also has one more year remaining on his deal, representing an additional sticking point in this scenario. Jarome Iginla is undoubtedly available but at 39 and with just five goals through 41 games this season, Chicago would probably exhaust other alternatives before pivoting in this direction.
If Dallas decides to sell at the deadline, former Blackhawk Patrick Sharp could represent an interesting option, though that is just my speculation. Sharp has missed time this season on two separate occasions with concussions and has just two goals on the season but tallied 20 last year for the Stars. He’s in the final year of his contract with a cap hit of $5.9MM and given Chicago will only have roughly $3.3MM of available space at the deadline, the Stars will either have to retain salary or take back a contract to facilitate a trade.
Elsewhere in the Central Division:
- The Colorado Avalanche, in the midst of a second straight dismal season, appear to be on the verge of a major shakeup, whether that occurs at the trade deadline or during the summer. Multiple high-profile players could be shipped elsewhere as management attempts to fix what ails the roster. The Denver Post’s Terry Frei compiled a comprehensive listing of the moves the team has made since Joe Sakic took over as the organization’s top decision-maker and the results are as you would expect given the current state of the team. Like many teams, the Avalanche have blundered when it comes to the term offered to unrestricted free agents. Among the players acquired either as a free agent or via trade and then subsequently extended were Brad Stuart, Jarome Iginla, Francois Beachemin, and Carl Soderberg. All were at least 30 when added to the Avalanche roster and only Soderberg was younger than 34. Needless to say, those deals haven’t worked out as the team had anticipated.
- A late free agent addition that has panned out far better than expected was the Dallas Stars October signing of forward Lauri Korpikoski, as Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News writes. The Finnish forward had been bought out of the final year of his deal with Edmonton and was later released from his PTO with Calgary. In need of forward depth following the loss of Ales Hemsky and Mattias Janmark, the team inked Korpikoski to a one-year, $1M deal. While he hasn’t exactly lit up the score sheet, the nine-year veteran has contributed six goals and 15 points in 43 games. That’s solid production for a bottom-six winger and a relative bargain given the minimal investment the Stars undertook. Additionally, Stars head coach Lindy Ruff appreciates Korpikoski’s all-around game, saying: “He’s a solid contributor who is good on both sides of the puck. You’ve got a guy who is pretty diligent and plays the game the right way.” With five of his fellow forwards also set to hit unrestricted free agency this summer, it’s at least possible Dallas considers an extension with Korpikoski.
Ranger Injury Updates: Raanta, Staal, Puempel
Like many teams in the NHL this season, the New York Rangers have had their fair share of injuries. Star sniper Rick Nash has missed 12 games with a troublesome groin issue. Key offseason acquisition Mika Zibanejad has missed the last 25 games due to a broken fibula. And just last Saturday, goaltender Antti Raanta was forced to leave after the first period of the Rangers 5 – 4 loss to Montreal with what was called a lower-body injury.
Fortunately for the Rangers, Raanta is expected to only be out sometime between seven and 10 days, as the team announced today via their official Twitter account. Raanta has had an excellent season as Henrik Lundqvist’s backup winning 10 of his 14 decisions, while posting a GAA of 2.24 and a S% of 0.923. With 17 appearances already this season, the four-year veteran is well on his way towards besting his previous career high of 25, accomplished both last year and in his rookie campaign in 2013-14.
Meanwhile, in Raanta’s absence, the Rangers have recalled Magnus Hellberg from the Hartford Wolf Pack. Hellberg, who has yet to appear for the Blue Shirts this season has just two games of NHL experience, both coming in relief. In 25 games with the Wolf Pack, the 25-year-old goalie has a 10-9-1 record, a GAA of 2.91 and a S% of 0.905.
The loss of Raanta likely means the Rangers will rely primarily on Henrik Lundqvist in the interim, and that might not be a bad thing. Lundqvist has traditionally been at his best when given a heavy workload and with Raanta seeing more time than usual between the pipes this year, The King has not performed up to his admittedly lofty standards. Perhaps increased use leading up to the All Star game will allow Lundqvist to find his rhythm and get back on track.
Earlier today, Blue Shirts bench boss Alain Vigneault indicated that Zibanejad would be back in the Rangers lineup tomorrow when the team hosts the Dallas Stars. The 23-year-old pivot, acquired in the offseason from Ottawa in exchange for Derick Brassard, was off to a terrific start on Manhattan, tallying 15 points in his first 19 games. His return will naturally push someone to the press box and if today’s practice is any indication, it appears Oscar Lindberg will be the one to come out of the lineup.
Additionally, Marc Staal and Matt Puempel, both of whom are in the NHL’s concussion protocol, skated this morning prior to the team’s practice. This suggests both players are progressing in their respective recoveries though of course it doesn’t provide any clarity on a timeline for their return.
PHR Originals: 1/9/2017-1/15/2017
It’s been an interesting week in the NHL, and here at PHR we’ve had some excellent original features:
- Nate Brown took at look at the top five picks from last summer, and how they’ve fared so far in their young careers. With Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine off to huge starts in the NHL (though Laine is now facing a concussion), it’s an interesting look at players like Pierre-Luc Dubois and Olli Juolevi, both of whom stayed with their junior clubs this year.
- I took a look at the shootout, and where teams would be if it was eliminated. Though teams would leapfrog each other if those points were taken away, it sure would close up some gaps.
- Brian La Rose released our annual mid-season UFA power rankings, in two parts (here and here). Based on votes from all of the writers at PHR, Kevin Shattenkirk took home the trophy of the #1 UFA. The rest of them are very interesting though, with writers ranking the field quite differently.
- Brian also continued his series re-drafting the 2005 class. This time it was the 28th overall selection, which Devin Setoguchi handily won.
- Brett Barrett took a look at the biggest one-for-one trades in the past decade. Inspired by the Taylor Hall–Adam Larsson/P.K. Subban–Shea Weber monster day we experienced last summer, some of the swaps have been the epitome of “blockbuster deal”
- And just a few hours ago I looked at Philadelphia’s struggles heading into their mandated bye week. The team lost 5-0 today to the Washington Capitals and are at risk of falling out of a playoff spot this week.
What’s Next For The Philadelphia Flyers?
On December 15th, exactly one month ago, the Philadelphia Flyers woke up on a ten-game winning streak and safely headed for the playoffs. All the talk around the league was how both Eastern Conference wildcard spots had already been locked up, the Metropolitan division having five teams that were guaranteed a spot in the playoffs.
Now, on January 15th as they lose 5-0 at the hands of the Washington Capitals, the story is very different. Since that 10th win in a row on December 14th, the Flyers have gone 3-8-3 and find themselves in real trouble of falling out of the wildcard spot. Carolina, Ottawa, Toronto and Florida are all within two points of the Flyers, with everyone having games in hand (the Leafs and Senators have 5 each).
As the Flyers head into their mandated bye-week – the team won’t play until next Saturday – they must find an answer to their recent problems. The question for this team isn’t up front, as they have scored 132 goals, good for 5th in the conference. It’s the back end that has so many question marks.
Their goaltending tandem of Steve Mason and Michal Neuvirth that started so well have both taken huge steps backwards, highlighted by the four goals in five minutes allowed by Mason today against the Capitals before he was pulled from the net. Both netminders have a save percentage under .900, which is unacceptable in the NHL.
On defense, the team scratched last year’s rookie of the year candidate Shayne Gostisbehere yesterday for the second time this year, upset with his play in his own end. While that might be a development tactic, other blueliners like Andrew MacDonald and Michael Del Zotto haven’t played well enough for the team this year either.
The team has some excellent young players; Ivan Provorov and Travis Konecny are both playing well as rookies, but disappear periodically (as rookies tend to do) and are still an unknown as the season stretches out.
If the front office believes this team could compete in the playoffs should they make a move or two, expect it to come on the back end and in net. With Mark Streit, Del Zotto and Nick Schultz all unrestricted free agents this summer, the team could also decide to sell off some expiring assets and give younger players more freedom.
In goal, acquiring a real NHL netminder is paramount, except it leaves the problem of Anthony Stolarz. The young netminder is almost ready to make an impact at the NHL level, and is exposed at the upcoming expansion draft. If the team were to acquire a goalie to help long term, they’d be at risk of losing him or Stolarz. This, by the way already may happen – the team currently must leave Stolarz exposed as he’s the only netminder under contract past this year.
It will be an interesting week for the Flyers front office, who need to start making decisions on this roster now. If they go another few games without turning this ship around, it might be too late. For now, they’ll crawl home and lick their wounds, hoping the unofficial second half brings more fruitful rewards.
How Are The 2016 Draft Picks Doing? Picks #1-5
Now more than ever, the NHL is a draft and develop league. While trades and key free agent signings are still an important part of the game, gone are the days where core players could be obtained for a few draft picks and low level prospects. The key to building a solid franchise foundation is drafting well. If gifted with a top five pick, the pressure in the salary cap era is even more stifling.
With the 2017 NHL Draft just over six months away, it’s always interesting to see how the 2016 picks are doing following their selections. Some like Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine, really need no introduction. The contributions to their respective teams have been significant, and talked about during the first half of the season. Here are the top five picks in order, and what they’ve been up to since being drafted last June.
#1 overall pick: Auston Matthews
What else is there to say? The Toronto Maple Leafs picked the Arizona native and they haven’t been disappointed. Nearly a point-per-game player, Matthews has 36 points (21-15) in 40 games and despite a goal scoring drought a few months back, Matthews has hit his stride. A knack to score big goals and showing a strong two-way game as well, Matthews is the backbone of a Toronto rebuilding project that includes a lot of exciting young players. The future is looking very bright in hockey’s mecca.
#2 overall pick: Patrik Laine
The Winnipeg Jets knew they were getting a good player in Laine, but just how good wasn’t revealed until the regular season began. Laine has netted two hat tricks this season and until Matthews heated up, there was significant discussion that Laine could be the choice for the Calder Trophy for league’s best rookie. Though a concussion sidelined him, Laine was also nearly a point-per-game player with 37 points (21-16) in 42 games. He still leads all rookies in goals and points.
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Johnny Boychuk Day-To-Day With Upper Body Injury
Add Johnny Boychuk to the injury merry-go-round that is claiming important players from teams across the league. Boychuk was a late scratch tonight, as reported by Shannon Hogan, with an upper body injury. Cat Silverman of Fan Rag goes further, indicating that the injury could be “huge” should it be a long term injury. Silverman adds that Boychuk was not out during warmups.
More From Silverman:
The 32-year-old blue liner has been one of the team’s most consistent players since getting dealt from the Boston Bruins in the summer of 2014 – and if the team looks to deal away anyone on the blue line ahead of the impending expansion draft, they’ll need their corps as healthy as possible.
The Islanders have struggled this season and are currently tied with the Detroit Red Wings for the least amount of points in the Eastern Conference, though they have two games in hand.
Boychuk has 14 points (5-9) this season.
Number Crunching: Shootouts
The shootout is a subject of much debate in the hockey world. For some, a short skills competition at the end of the game is a fine way to decide who earns the extra point. For others, another few minutes of the new 3-on-3 would be a dream. For other still, ties were never an issue, and they’d be fine with their inclusion once again.
Whichever side of the argument you find yourself, the simple fact is that they are in the NHL right now. Every team has to compete in them throughout the season for those all important extra points. This season only Dallas has yet to be involved in a shootout, while Philadelphia leads the way with nine games ending in one.
The old adage of “it all evens out in the end” almost proves true, as if you were to remove the shootout and just award both teams with a single point if the game was tied after overtime, not a single team would leapfrog another in the standings. It would, however, bring some teams into a tie (points-wise).
The Maple Leafs, with their awful 1-5 record would be tied with their rival Ottawa Senators, instead of chasing them by two points. They would also pull ahead of the Panthers, a team they’re tied with who have played in eight shootouts so far (second most in the league).
Suddenly the Metropolitan would be even tighter, with Washington and Columbus pulling even at the top. Philadelphia would fall into a tie with the Maple Leafs, Senators and Hurricanes for that last wildcard spot however, making things much more interesting.
In the west, where there haven’t been nearly as many shootouts would mostly see the bottom falling out of the standings. Vancouver would drop further back despite their recent run, and Arizona would be in a dog fight with Colorado for the worst team in the NHL; their 4-1 record in shootouts is the best thing about their season thus far.
For individual performances, Thomas Vanek ranks among the best in the league. He’s scored on all three of his attempts this season. Vincent Trocheck, Aleksander Barkov and Jakub Voracek all lead with four goals, though it’s taken each of them at least seven attempts. The worst is Nick Cousins, who has failed to score on each of his six attempts, though Kyle Okposo doesn’t fall far behind going 0-5. Despite leading the league in goals, Sidney Crosby is 0-2 this season in the shootout.
For goaltenders, Steve Mason has faced the most shots. He’s stopped 23 of 30 shooters, registering a pretty solid 76.7 save percentage. Braden Holtby has allowed the most, getting scored on an unbelievable 9 out of 14 times. There are six goaltenders who have stopped every shot they’ve faced, though they’ve all faced seven or fewer. Tuukka Rask is the man to beat having stopped 16 of 19 attempts. Robin Lehner is on the other side, allowing all six shooters he’s faced to score.
It’s an interesting thing, the shootout. Even players who have incredible success during the game find it difficult to score, while others who aren’t expected to be offensive forces find the back of the net with ease. For now, the shootout is a part of the game – winning there may be the difference between making or missing the playoffs.
Hawks Notes: Kruger, Roster Spots, Cap Space
The Chicago Blackhawks took to the ice today to practice before their game against the Minnesota Wild tomorrow night. Among the missing skaters was Marcus Kruger, the injured forward who has been out since December 30th. While the original timetable had him set to return in the next week, head coach Joel Quenneville now says it will likely be longer than that.
Kruger suffered an upper-body injury just before the new year, dealing a big blow to the defensive ability of the Hawks forward group. Kruger was an integral part of their penalty kill, and his departure will weaken it even further – it’s currently ranked 28th in the NHL.
- While Kruger remains out due to injury, Artem Anisimov looks like he may miss tomorrow’s game because of an illness. He was absent from practice today and is questionable going forward. The team is currently only carrying 12 healthy forwards at the moment including Anisimov, meaning that if he can’t go the team may dress seven defensemen. The team currently has just 21 of 23 roster spots filled, since putting Kruger on injured reserve at the beginning of the year.
- One of the reasons for this may be the idea that the Blackhawks are “banking” cap space. Brian Hedger of NHL.com says that’s exactly why they haven’t filled the last two spots. When he asked Quenneville, he told him “business reasons”, which does sound line up with Hedger’s thoughts. If he were to hazard a guess as to when the space would be used, it would be right at the trade deadline. The Hawks do have a little bit of room to make a move for another potential Stanley Cup run, and they currently sit in first place in the Central division.
- When Hedger talked to Corey Crawford, who was shelled last night by the Washington Capitals, he told him that he doesn’t “feel the best” after missing time due to an appendectomy. While Crawford points out it might not be because of the layoff, he’s determined to battle through it. The netminder is having another fine season and will be one of four players representing the Blackhawks at the all-star game this year.