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Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner Unlikely To Sign Extensions Before Season

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While all eyes around the Toronto Maple Leafs right now are on William Nylander and his ongoing contract negotiations, there is also now the possibility of long-term extensions for Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. Both star forwards have been eligible for an extension since July 1st, but haven’t been in the spotlight much after the team signed John Tavares in free agency and still has not reached an agreement with Nylander for the upcoming season. Now, while sitting down with Bob McKenzie of TSN, Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas admitted that those extensions may not get done before the season.

I wouldn’t say it’s all too likely. We’ve had good discussions with all of them, with both Mitch and Auston and their people. These are the types of things that because there’s no real immediacy to it—they both know they have another year on their contract, everyone’s excited for the season—it’s been a very patient process on all parts. That’s more from the team that it is from the players. We believe that if a player is going to commit that long to a team on a long-term agreement, that we want them to be fully comfortable and aware of what they’re getting into. 

Dubas went on to explain how his team would always be willing to negotiate in-season, but understands if the player doesn’t want that distraction as they’re trying to perform to the best of their abilities. That likely means that the two sides would have to come together next offseason and hammer something out, a tact that could end up costing the Maple Leafs even more.

There is little reason to believe that Matthews or Marner will take steps backwards this season given their individual talent and the expected improvement to the team. If they head into negotiations with new career highs, or even just a third season at the level they’ve been at their demands may increase. That said, both players would likely already be looking at huge contract extensions in any negotiations this summer, with players like Jack Eichel and Leon Draisaitl as potential comparables.

Dubas again seemed confident that all three of the Maple Leafs’ young stars will be with the club long-term, even going so far as to suggest the team try to keep them for their entire careers. While many have wondered how they’ll fit everyone in under the salary cap now that John Tavares is in town making $11MM per season, the young GM obviously has a plan in place. Nylander is the next step on that plan, and needs a contract in the next week or will be in danger of missing the start of training camp.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

What Does The Future Hold For Jake Gardiner?

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Before July 1st, few people outside of the Toronto Maple Leafs front office were too concerned about the contract status of defenseman Jake Gardiner, who enters the final year of his current deal in 2018-19. Then Drew Doughty, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ryan McDonagh, and Ryan Ellis all preemptively signed long, expensive extensions. Just like that, the situation for Gardiner changed completely.

Looking ahead to next summer, there is now an argument to be made that Gardiner is the second-best defenseman on the unrestricted free agent market as it currently stands. That was far from true earlier this summer. He has gone from an afterthought to an Erik Karlsson consolation prize. While the free agent class features many prominent veteran defenders – Jay Bouwmeester, Anton Stralman, Marc Methot, and Alexander Edler – it lacks many long-term pieces behind Karlsson and Gardiner. The Winnipeg Jets’ Tyler Myers and the Vegas Golden Knights’ Nate Schmidt would perhaps offer Gardiner some competition, if either unexpectedly reaches the market, but there is a strong case to be made that Gardiner would be the superior target.

The real question is whether or not Gardiner actually makes it to free agency. While nothing has changed about Gardiner’s value or ability since July 1st, his relative cost has shifted dramatically. With a potentially loaded free agent market for defensemen, Gardiner would have been taking a risk by turning down a fair extension from the Leafs to pursue other offers that may not have come once the smoke cleared from the major signings. Now that he almost certainly will be considered one of the top available names, Toronto may have to pay a premium to keep him from testing the waters, if they can. By the time Gardiner finishes next season, his career games played and offensive production will likely be superior to those currently of a player like McDonagh, who just signed a seven-year extension worth $6.75MM AAV. Granted, Gardiner is not the all-around player that McDonagh is, but given his continuously improving play and the boost of being a top available younger player, it is a fair frame of reference. For example, look at the four-year, $18.2MM contract that Calvin de Haan – considered by many to be the best defenseman in this current free agent class – signed with the Carolina Hurricanes this summer despite missing the majority of last season due to injury. The market sets the price and scarcity drives up price.

So will Toronto ante up to keep Gardiner? The Maple Leafs have to be careful with their long-term salary cap management. The team still owes William Nylander a contract this summer, as well as extensions for Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner by next off-season. Those are the three names that everyone is focused on when it comes to Toronto. Yet, in addition to Gardiner, other impending free agents that the Leafs would like to keep include forwards Kasperi Kapanen, Andreas Johnsson, and Josh Leivo, defensemen Travis Dermott, Andreas Borgman, and Connor Carrick, goaltender Garret Sparks, and even incoming imports Par Lindholm and Igor Ozhiganov who could win spots on the team this season. This is the final year that Toronto can take advantage of this massive group of bargain players, all of whom are paid $1.3MM or less and due raises. Not to mention, signing Gardiner and the other blue liners and losing veteran Ron Hainsey will still keep a massive hole open on the right side of the defense that the team will need to continue to search to fill.

The numbers simply don’t seem to add up, at least not very neatly. It would seem difficult for the Maple Leafs to pay Gardiner his market value, extend all of their other key impending free agents, fill the gap on the right side of the top pair next to Morgan Rielly, and still somehow end up under the salary cap next season. The story line to watch this season, as the John Tavares era begins, is whether the Jake Gardiner era is ending. Another career year for the capable defenseman could leave the Leafs without much choice but to let him walk next off-season and continue to work with a pieced together blue line. Do they trade him at the deadline? Do they trade a young core forward to replace him? Or instead do they somehow move salary to fit Gardiner in at any cost? Find out in 2018-19.

 

Negotiation Notes: Arbitration Hearings, Nylander, Islanders

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Two more players sat down for arbitration hearings today, as Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reports that neither the Ottawa Senators and Cody Ceci nor the Dallas Stars and Gemel Smith were able to come to terms beforehand. Both situations bear watching over the next 48 hours, as they must agree to a deal in that window or else get stuck with the arbitrator’s award. Ceci’s case is similar to that of the Winnipeg Jets’ Jacob Trouba, which went through to a decision earlier this off-season. Both Ceci and Trouba filed at a number that shares few reasonable comparisons – Trouba at $7MM and Ceci at $6MM. While Trouba’s side likely tried to use several recent cases of offensive-minded defenseman who settled for $5.5MM and then argue that he is the superior defensive player, Ceci does not have the comparable offense to make as strong a case. As such, he is unlikely to get the $5.5MM award that Trouba landed, the midpoint of his case. Instead, look for Ceci to get somewhere in the $4-4.5MM range. Smith’s is a much different scenario, similar to another previously decided case this summer, that of Calgary Flames defenseman Brett Kulak. In both cases, the team offered only a minimum, two-way contract while the player filed at a higher value for a one-way deal –  Kulak at $1.15MM and Smith at $900K. While Kulak was able to land a $850K one-way deal from the arbitrator, he also played in 71 games in the platform year, while Smith only suited up for 46. Smith faces a far tougher argument that he is a bona fide NHL player at this point in his career.

  • Restricted free agent William Nylander continues to negotiate with the Toronto Maple Leafs, but the explosive young forward is not interested in a short-term bridge deal. Sportsnet’s Luke Fox suggests that Nylander is only talking about a long-term deal right now. While the Leafs might be trying to play it safe, with both Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner also in need of extensions next summer (along with the majority of their roster), Nylander doesn’t seem willing to take a bridge deal only to watch his fellow budding stars sign long-term contracts instead. Nylander may have hit restricted free agency earlier than Matthews and Marner, but the trio all have similar games played and points since Nylander only played in 22 games with Toronto in his first season before the other two joined the squad. All three have been remarkably consistent early on and, given their similarities, it is hard to blame Nylander for wanting a long-term deal when he knows that Matthews and Marner are likely to get them.
  • While it makes sense that the New York Islanders have focused on adding forwards and a new goaltender this season, after losing superstar center John Tavares and starting goalie Jaroslav Halak to free agency, Newsday’s Andrew Gross thinks it’s strange that the team has not added to the blue line at all. The team re-signed Thomas Hickey and Ryan Pulock, but have added no one else while losing Calvin de Haan and opting not to bring back Brandon Davidson and Dennis Seidenberg. Gross notes that recently re-signed center Brock Nelson, an impending free agent, could be used as a trade chip to add to a blue line that struggled greatly last season. There are certainly teams out there with a plethora of defensemen who could use Nelson up front. The Carolina Hurricanes, Boston Bruins, and Winnipeg Jets are clubs that fit the bill, but Nelson would not be nearly enough to land a Justin Faulk, Torey Krug, or Jacob Trouba and an expendable piece that he might fetch, like a Trevor van Riemsdyk, Adam McQuaid, or Tucker Poolman might not be enough to fix the Islanders blue line. New York may have to up the ante beyond Nelson to land a difference-maker on the back end.

The Contract Each Team Would Most Like To Trade: Part III

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Nearly every team has one of those players: a top talent they were excited to sign and never thought could do anything but help them. In hindsight, history shows that more often than not, expensive, long-term free agent contracts don’t work out. It may look good at first (or it may look bad right away to the outside observer), but players struggle to make their value last throughout a lengthy contract. Those contracts come back to bite teams and are hard to get rid of. As teams begin to finalize their rosters at this point in the off-season, many are struggling to make everyone fit under the salary cap and are regretting these past signings that exasperate a cap crunch that can be tough for even a mistake-free club. We already took a look at the first third and second third of the league; here are the contracts that each of the final ten teams would most like to trade, from Philadelphia to Winnipeg:

Philadelphia Flyers: Andrew MacDonald – two years, $10MM remaining

Based purely on salary versus what he brings to the table, Jori Lehtera’s $4.7MM contract is the worst on the Flyers. However, Philadelphia is far from cap trouble this season, currently among the five lightest payrolls in the league, and Lehtera’s deal expires after this season. However, next year the Flyers will need to re-sign or replace Wayne Simmonds, hand new deals to Ivan Provorov and Travis Konecny, and likely find a new starting goalie. The cap crunch will be much more real and the over-inflated $5MM contract of Andrew MacDonald will hurt. MacDonald’s six-year, $30MM contract was immediately panned by the public and it wasn’t long after that he was buried in the minors for cap relief and to keep him out of the lineup. MacDonald simply is not the player he was with the New York Islanders earlier in his career when he could eat major minutes, was stellar in man-to-man defense, and could block shots with the best. What he is being paid now is far beyond what he is actually worth. Some would say that Radko Gudas is worse, but that is an argument that suffers from recency bias. Combining the past two seasons, Gudas actually has the same amount of points as MacDonald in fewer games and less ice time, a better plus/minus rating, far more shots, and of course infinitely more hits. At $3.35MM for the next two years, Gudas is a far better deal.

Pittsburgh Penguins: Carl Hagelin – one year, $4MM remaining

The real answer is that GM Jim Rutherford would not like to trade any more players. He already ditched two of his worst contracts by sending Matt Hunwick and Conor Sheary to the Buffalo Sabres and he isn’t eager to make another salary dump. However, the reality is that Rutherford is going to find it hard to manipulate his roster this season with just over $1MM in cap space. As such, it is likely that another Penguin could be on the move. An outside observer could easily point to the Jack Johnson contract as one that stands little chance of maintaining its value over the term and the same argument could be made for Patric Hornqvist as well. However, Rutherford just signed those deals and wouldn’t move them even if he could. That leaves a short list of players who could be moved and the only one that sticks out as being overpriced is Carl Hagelin. Hagelin has played an important part of the Penguins’ reign over the past few years, but at $4MM he has not cracked 40 points in any of the three seasons and can go cold for weeks at a time. Rutherford won’t make a move unless it can benefit the team, but if he can get another scoring winger in exchange for a package that dumps Hagelin’s salary, he’ll do it.

San Jose Sharks: None

Mikkel Boedker, Joel Ward, and Paul Martin are all gone. Two top forwards, the two best defensemen, and the starting goalie are all locked up long-term at a reasonable rate. The Sharks have almost $4.5MM in cap space this season, giving them room to add. Congratulations to GM Doug Wilson and his staff. This roster is the epitome of cap compliance mixed with depth and talent. There is not one contract that the team would be interested in dumping.

St. Louis Blues: Alexander Steen – three years, $17.25MM remaining

The Blues currently have all but $285K of their cap space committed to 24 players. The team may send Chris Thorburn or Jordan Nolan down to the AHL, but will only gain marginal space. Something else has to give. If they could target any player to move to alleviate some pressure, it would be Alexander Steen. With just seven forwards and three defensemen (as of now) signed beyond next season and the majority of players in line for raises or free agent replacements, these cap woes aren’t going away anytime soon and an expensive long-term deal needs to be shipped out. Understandably, St. Louis is all in this season and wouldn’t be eager to ship out an important top-six piece. However, Ryan O’Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko, Brayden Schenn, and Jaden Schwartz are the new young core up front now and paying 34-year-old Steen $5.75MM for three more years for declining production just doesn’t make sense. The Blues could potentially land some nice pieces from another contender for Steen as well. Admittedly, the Tyler Bozak contract looks even worse than Steen’s, but the Blues won’t be looking to trade a player they just signed.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Ryan Callahan – two years, $11.6MM remaining

The long-term implications of several other deals aside, the Lightning’s Stanley Cup window is wide open and their focus is on the here and now. The one player really impeding their ability to add freely to the roster is Ryan Callahan. While GM Steve Yzerman has excelled at extending most of his core below market value, the six-year, $34.8MM contract for Callahan was a mistake. Injuries limited Callahan to just 18 games in 2016-17, but last year he played in 67 games yet he only managed to score 18 points. Callahan’s days as an impact player are over, but he is still being paid like one at $5.8MM. While Tampa Bay can manage this season with close to $3MM in cap space, they would have more to work with without him. However, Callahan’s contract will really present a major road block next summer, when the Bolts need to re-sign Brayden Point, Yanni Gourde, Anton Stralman, and more. There is no doubt that Yzerman will look to unload Callahan’s contract before it comes to that point.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Nikita Zaitsev – six years, $27MM remaining

The Maple Leafs severely jumped the gun when they rewarded Nikita Zaitsev with a seven-year deal after his rookie season in 2016-17. Although Zaitsev was an import, making his NHL debut at 25 years old, his situation epitomizes why bridge deals exist. Toronto sought to lock him up long term and gave him nearly a maximum term at $4.5MM, just $500K less per year than top defender Morgan Rielly. In his encore performance last season, he showed that he is not worthy of the salary nor length of that contract, dropping from 36 points to 13 points for the year, turning the puck over at an alarming rate, and eventually becoming a healthy scratch. This team simply can’t afford the type of long-term mistake that they made with Zaitsev. While it’s nice that they have Reilly, John Tavares, and Nazem Kadri signed long-term, it’s Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander they need to worry about. The Maple Leafs will have to balance multiple expensive, long-term deals moving forward and would love for Zaitsev’s to not be one of them.

Vancouver Canucks: Loui Eriksson – four years, $24MM remaining

It seems unlikely that the recently-signed deals for Jay Beagle and Antoine Roussel will work out well, but they at least deserve some time. Loui Eriksson has had his time and has done nothing with it. While the Canucks aren’t under any cap pressure, they can’t enjoy seeing Eriksson’s $6MM cap hit – the highest on the team – on the books for four more years, especially when the bulk of his front-loaded salary has already been paid out. Eriksson was brought in with an expectation that he would be the ultimate fit with Daniel and Henrik Sedin. Instead, he has scored just 47 points combined over two seasons, less than his final season total with the Boston Bruins. The Sedins are now gone, the team is trying to get both younger and more physical and defensive-minded, and Eriksson is simply an expensive poor fit. There’s not much more to say about a player who desperately needs a change of scenery and a team that wants him gone.

Vegas Golden Knights: None

The Golden Knights are riding high after an outrageously successful first season in the NHL. It is highly unlikely that they see anything wrong with their current contracts, almost all of which were either hand-picked or signed by GM George McPhee. Give it some time and that could change. Reilly Smith is notorious for a significant drop in production in his second year with a team, but is signed for four more years at $5MM. Paul Stastny for three years at $6.5MM per seems like a solid deal, but he has always produced better surrounded by equal talent. Does Vegas have enough to justify his signing? A $2.775MM cap hit for Ryan Reaves doesn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense. Finally, there’s the three-year, $21MM extension for heroic goalie but also 33-year-old well-worn vet Marc-Andre Fleury, which could end poorly. And this isn’t even counting what could be a massive reactionary contract for one-year breakout star William Karlsson. The Knights don’t see any problems right now after finding immediate success, but if they slide significantly in year two, things could get ugly.

Washington Capitals: T.J. Oshie – seven years, $40.25MM remaining

No, it’s not Tom Wilson. The call of the question is which contract each team wants to trade, not which is objectively the worst. Wilson’s contract does seem excessive, but he is just 24 and could grow into that salary (doubtful but possible). Plus, the organization loves what he brings to the team. T.J. Oshie on the other hand is heading in the wrong direction. Oshie has done what he was brought in to do: help the Capitals win the Stanley Cup. It took a max eight-year term to keep Oshie off the market last summer and now Washington has their Cup but also has a 31-year-old with diminishing returns signed for seven more years. Oshie could absolutely still help the Capitals over the next few years, but it’s doubtful that he will be back in 60-point range in that time. He also will be nothing more than a cap space vacuum when he’s in his late thirties making $5.75MM. Oshie is a great player and one of the more likeable guys in the league, but this contract has little upside left. The Capitals would at the very least consider trading Oshie now, which can’t be said for most of their other core players.

Winnipeg Jets: Jacob Trouba – one year, $5.5MM remaining

The list ends with a tricky one. Is $5.5MM a fair value for Trouba? An arbitrator thinks so and the Jets would likely agree. However, Trouba’s contract has been a nightmare for the team. The young defenseman clearly does not want to be in Winnipeg and has set himself up for yet another arbitration clash next summer, after which he will bolt in free agency. The Jets have no long-term security with Trouba and that meddles with their future planning. With Blake Wheeler, Tyler Myers, and several others also in need of new contracts next summer, the Jets don’t need another Trouba arbitration award cutting into their cap space just so that he can walk after the season. The team will definitely look to get maximum value in a trade for Trouba over the next season.

Atlantic Notes: Marner, Karlsson, Larkin

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While Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews acknowledged recently that discussions have started regarding a contract extension, there hasn’t been a similar note for winger Mitch Marner, who also is entering the final year of his entry-level deal.  Ken Campbell of The Hockey News argues that the 21-year-old may be wise to wait until next summer to work out a new deal instead of doing an early extension.

Marner has been quite productive through his first two NHL seasons, recording 61 points in his rookie campaign and 69 last year.  He managed to do so despite not spending a lot of time with Matthews which is also notable.  With Toronto adding top free agent center John Tavares this summer, there’s a good chance that Marner will play with either him or Matthews which could result in a nice jump in his point total.  If that’s the case, he can likely get a bigger contract next summer with a bit more leverage than he currently has now.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic:

  • There is nothing imminent on the trade front for the Lightning when it comes to Senators defenseman Erik Karlsson. Joe Smith of The Athletic (subscription required) characterizes the discussions as not having got particularly close to a deal and adds that some feel that Ottawa isn’t in any rush to move him and are prepared to wait to get the price they want.  Of course, further complicating things is that Tampa Bay may have to involve a third team to offload enough payroll to take on Karlsson’s $6.5MM contract as the Sens aren’t expected to be willing to take significant salary back in return.
  • While the Red Wings have yet to lock up RFA center Dylan Larkin, the soon-to-be 22-year-old told NHL.com’s Nick Cotsonika that there are no major issues thus far in their contract negotiations. Larkin is coming off of a career year that saw him collect 63 points to lead the team in scoring and will likely be bypassing the bridge contract.  It was reported earlier this month that Detroit is looking to do a five-year contract here but that they may have to go to six to get something done.

Tavares Notes: Toronto, San Jose, Boston

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While reports suggest that John Tavares and his representation are speaking to five teams in Los Angeles, there is some confusion of which teams Tavares’ camp is speaking to. It was reported that the Toronto Maple Leafs, San Jose Sharks and the Dallas Stars are three teams that are definitely meeting with him, while other teams such as Vegas and Tampa Bay have been suggested as possibilities.

The Maple Leafs have been interested in signing Tavares for a long time, years in fact. However, with the state of their salary cap in the coming years with contracts of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander on the books, there are a lot of questions whether the Maple Leafs are really true candidates to bring Tavares on board, especially after the team splurged a season ago when they pried Patrick Marleau away from San Jose.

The Athletic’s James Mirtle (subscription required) writes that trying to add a contract that at the moment is linked at $11MM per year for Tavares (possibly $12MM) might be challenging, but not totally impossible. Unlike two years ago, when they tried to sign Steven Stamkos when they were a struggling franchise, things are much different. For one, Tavares gets to come home, he can immediate play for a top team which has a legitimate chance to win a Stanley Cup, and lots of cap space in the first year of a contract, which is where the discussion ends.

Mirtle suggests one rumor that has been going around for week is to offer Tavares a one-year max deal, which would be worth $15.9MM. Then the team could attempt to lock him up to an eight-year deal after that. However, that could also be construed as cap circumvention as well as dangerous if Tavares gets injured in that first year. Another offer Toronto could add to the package is the captaincy, but that would also be an issue considering that Matthews has been in line for that role.

  • David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period confirms that the San Jose Sharks were the second team to speak with Tavares and his representatives. He writes that the Sharks are all-in on Tavares and the entire organization is on board to bring Tavares in. With more than $18MM in cap space, the Sharks have the money even after locking up winger Evander Kane to a seven-year, $49MM extension last month. With their defense and goaltending, alongside Tavares, Kane, Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski as well as a bunch of talented younger players that are ready to break out, the Sharks would look like a perennial Stanley Cup contender.
  • Joe Haggerty of NBC Sports writes that while there is no word yet, the scribe gets the sense that the Boston Bruins haven’t been told yet whether they are one of the five teams that Tavares will meet with, but Boston definitely wants a meeting with the center. Boston has almost $12MM of cap space available and a team that is full of both veterans and young stars in which the addition of Tavares could take them to that Stanley Cup level as well.

Eastern Notes: Kovalchuk, Marner, Smith, Rasmussen

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Could the Boston Bruins be the front-runners for Russian free agent and former NHL superstar Ilya Kovalchuk? Evidently, the Sports Hub’s Ty Anderson thinks so.

As reported by NBC Sports, Anderson appeared on Toucher & Rich on 98.5 and said he believes the Bruins are currently the leading candidates to get the 35-year-old winger due to the Bruins cap space. While the Bruins are listed by CapFriendly as having just $6.5MM in available cap space, the team has few free agents of their own to deal with and a loaded roster, including multiple talented veterans such as Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron and a core of youth of which many had solid rookie years last season.

Kovalchuk, who tallied 31 goals for SKA St. Petersburg in the KHL has been touring NHL cities, looking for a new home. While his preference has been to stay on the East Coast, especially either New York or Florida, he’s broadened his search this year including a trip to Los Angeles and San Jose as he’s made it clear that he wants to win a Stanley Cup as soon as possible.

  • Kevin McGran of The Star interviewed Mitch Marner about multiple topics, but the 21-year-old star said that there has been no discussion yet with management about a potential contract extension. The fourth-overall pick from the 2015 draft will be eligible for a contract extension on July 1 along with teammate Auston Matthews, but there is no word on whether Marner will sign an extension this year or will have to wait until next year. “Nothing has been said yet, but nothing you can do,” said Marner. “If nothing happens, you still have a year to play under your rookie contract. Just go out there and try to prove you can make the team better.”
  • While the New York Rangers are looking for defense, the New York Post’s Larry Brooks writes that veteran defenseman Brendan Smith has stayed in New York following the season and has been working with fitness trainer with Ben Prentiss to get into better shape. Smith, who was placed on waivers on Feb. 9, after signing a four-year, $17.4MM contract in the offseason, came into camp out of shape and struggled on the Rangers’ blueline all season long. The scribe writes that the Rangers not only expect him to compete for a job at training camp, but they expect him to return to the status of the player they handed that contract to.
  • Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press writes she believes it looks promising that 2017 first-round pick Michael Rasmussen makes the Detroit Red Wings team out of training camp this year. The ninth-overall pick last year put up 31 goals and 58 points for the Tri-City Americans of the WHL and even got some time at the wing position during the season because Detroit would likely like for him to start at the wing if he makes the team next season. What’s more impressive is that he scored 16 goals and 33 points in just 14 playoff games, suggesting he might be ready for Detroit. If he doesn’t make the team, he will have to return for one more year to Tri-City.

 

Auston Matthews And Mitch Marner May Prefer To Sign New Deals Next Summer

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New Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas has already reached out to the agents for center Auston Matthews and winger Mitch Marner, TSN’s Bob McKenzie reports (video link).  He also notes that Toronto’s preference would be to get deals done with both players at the same time but McKenzie believes that the youngsters may prefer to hold off on signing an extension this offseason in favor of waiting until next summer when they are eligible for restricted free agency.

Both players are coming off of strong sophomore campaigns and if they play at that level or better in 2018-19, it stands to reason that their cases for a bigger payday will only be strengthened.  There’s little reason to believe that one or both players will regress so betting on themselves certainly makes some sense.  Of course, there is some risk here.  A significant injury to either player would certainly negatively impact negotiations.

It’s also worth noting that the barometer for big contracts is shifting more towards the percentage of the salary cap over the actual AAV.  The Upper Limit has only gone up since being instituted and will probably do so again next summer so if Marner and Matthews are targeting a specific percentage of the cap on their next deals, it should yield a higher amount by waiting.

McKenzie also wondered if Matthews, in particular, may prefer to not sign a max-term deal which is something that notable number one picks including Steven Stamkos and John Tavares have done in the past.  Doing so would result in a lower cap hit on his next deal since fewer UFA-eligible years would be bought out but it would also give him the potential to hit the open market in the prime of his career.  It’s safe to say that he’ll be keeping a close eye on Tavares in the next few weeks.

We haven’t seen too many prominent youngsters go this route lately as early extensions are becoming more and more prominent.  Last summer, Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel wasted little time signing a year earlier than they needed to and many expected that Toronto’s top duo would do the same this time around but that may be in question now.  Even though those two may not sign right away, the other member of Toronto’s ‘big three’ up front (winger William Nylander) will need to get something done this offseason as he is eligible for restricted free agency next month.

Toronto Maple Leafs Lead Bonus Overages List

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It looks like the Toronto Maple Leafs are at the top of at least one list. CapFriendly released a list of teams with Bonus Overages for this year, which result from players on their entry-level contracts hitting their standard bonuses. Nine teams’ performance bonuses went over the salary cap with the Maple Leafs leading with $2.55MM, which will now count against their 2018-19 cap. The bonus overages range from Toronto’s $2.55MM to the Minnesota Wild’s $25K.

The Maple Leafs’ bonuses came from just three players from the entry-level contracts of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander which totaled the $2.55MM. Since the team had no remaining cap room in 2017-18, it pushes over to the following year. Most of the nine teams were at the cap threshold, while others like the Vancouver Canucks, St. Louis Blues and the Tampa Bay Lightning had some cap room to take a part of the bonus hits.

Two teams bonuses could still go up as Boston’s Jake Debrusk and Tampa Bay’s Mikhail Sergachev could each receive bonus if they are named to the All-Rookie Team.

Here is the nine-team list:

Toronto Maple Leafs: $2,550,000
Chicago Blackhawks: $1,232,500
Vancouver Canucks: $852,847
Boston Bruins: $774,000
Detroit Red Wings: $755,000
St. Louis Blues: $150,988
Tampa Bay Lightning: $142,947
Washington Capitals: $82,500
Minnesota Wild: $25,000

Dubas Has Many Decisions To Make In Toronto

at CDT | by 2 Comments

Just a couple of days into his new job and people are starting to see the challenges ahead for Toronto Maple Leafs new general manager Kyle Dubas. To start, the 32-year-old GM has been with the organization for four years and must deal with older, more experienced personnel, including 55-year-old Mark Hunter (at least for now) and 55-year-old Mike Babcock.

While Dubas has been given the keys to one of the most famed and loaded franchises, Dubas must also make his mark on the roster and lead the team to that next championship level. Many big decisions will come up just in the next few months including locking up his young players for the future, while building a winner in the one-year window before those deals kick in.

The first big decisions the GM will have to deal with is deciding if one or any of their unrestricted free agents will be brought back, including James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak and Leo Komarov. Both van Reimsdyk and Bozak are expected to get significant raises this summer when they sign new contracts and would be very challenging to bring back. Bozak in particular is valuable as the team is not nearly as strong at the center position as they are at the wing. However, Komarov could be a possibility if he encounters a dry market and the Maple Leafs believe he can still be of help. However, with great depth and a GM who is well aware of what type of players the team has at the AHL level, letting all three walk away is a legitimate possibility.

However, James Mirtle of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that Dubas will want to put his own brand on the Maple Leafs, so expect multiple changes. Among those possibilities, includes a potential run at John Tavares or a defenseman like Dougie Hamilton. However, Mirtle points out that a player like Nikita Zaitsev could become one of those changes. With a partial no-trade clause kicking in next year and Zaitsev’s limitations with the puck, this might be a good time to move on from him if they don’t feel he will be a good fit in the future.

The defense might be the key to Dubas success. Often labeled as the team’s failing this season, a change might be necessary, but with limitations to long-term deals, the most likely way to upgrade the blueline would be through a trade, although it’s unlikely Dubas would move Mitch Marner or William Nylander to make a major upgrade.

Goaltending could be an issue too. Despite the solid performance by backup goaltender Curtis McElhinney this year, Dubas might look to trading the 34-year-old veteran netminder. With Garrett Sparks dominating in the AHL (1.79 GAA, .936 save percentage with the Toronto Marlies) and the real possibility the team could lose him to waivers at the start of next season, the team must decide whether it’s time to give Sparks the No. 2 spot.

While a decision on Roman Polak might be an easy one, Dubas is well aware that the defenseman is a personal favorite of Babcock and does the young GM throw the veteran coach a bone and bring him back? In the end, nothing will be easy for Dubas, who will be scrutinized more than any general manager in the coming months.

 

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