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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Edmonton Oilers

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Edmonton Oilers

Current Cap Hit: $79,066,999 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Joakim Nygard (one year, $925K)
F Cooper Marody (two years, $925K)
F Kailer Yamamoto (two years, $894K)
D Evan Bouchard (three years, $894K)
F Tyler Benson (two years, $808K)
D Caleb Jones (one year, $720K)
D Ethan Bear (one year, $720K)

Potential Bonuses

Bouchard: $850K
Yamamoto: $230K
Marody: $75K
Jones: $70K
Bear: $20K

The team have a number of young players on entry-level deals, but so far while there is a ton of potential here, not one player has stepped up and established themselves as a full-time player on the Oilers roster. Yamamoto, the team’s 2017 first-rounder, was expected to provide the speed that the team needed to develop a fast-paced offense, but after 26 NHL games, he’s provided just one goal and four assists. Marody has appeared in six games with no points, while Benson, despite quite a bit of success in the AHL, hasn’t gotten a chance at the NHL level, although that’s likely to change this season. The team also has high hopes in Nygard, who is a speedy winger, who is coming off a 21-goal campaign in the SHL, but remains a mystery.

On defense, the team might get their 2018 first-round pick, Evan Bouchard, to make the team and contribute quickly, but he also must prove to the team that he’s ready for that opportunity. However, Bouchard already has seven games of experience with the Oilers (scoring one goal), while posting three goals and eight points for the Bakersfield Condors of the AHL in eight playoff games. Other defenseman might also be ready, including Bear and Jones. Bear has played two seasons now in the AHL, while Jones got 17 games with the Oilers last season and might be the most NHL-ready.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Darnell Nurse ($3.2MM, RFA)
F Sam Gagner ($3.15MM, UFA)
D Brandon Manning ($2.25MM, UFA)
G Mike Smith ($1MM, UFA)
F Zack Kassian ($1.95MM, UFA)
D Matt Benning (1.9MM, RFA)
F Markus Granlund ($1.3MM, UFA)
F Kyle Brodziak ($1.15MM, UFA)
F Josh Archibald ($1MM, UFA)
D Joel Persson ($1MM, RFA)
F Tomas Jurco ($750K, UFA)
F Colby Cave ($675K, RFA)

The bulk of the Oilers contracts seem to be one-year deals, which means that many players will have to prove to the Edmonton front office that they deserve a new contract. The team will likely unload the contracts of both Gagner and Manning after this season, which should free up $5.4MM of cap space. The Oilers traded for the veteran Gagner near the trade deadline and he contributed five goals and 10 points in 25 games for Edmonton, but he likely will take a bottom-line role with Oilers this season, while Manning has never been a good fit after being acquired from the Blackhawks in December last season. Smith is another veteran the Oilers have high hopes for, but the team will reassess its goaltending situation at the end of the year and whether to bring the then 38-year-old back for another season. The same can be said for players like Archibald, Granlund and Jurco.

The team will have pay up next season for Nurse, a restricted free agent, who put up career-high numbers last season with the Oilers. The 24-year-old put up 10 goals and 41 points and averaged 23:49 of time on the ice. He also blocked 146 shots, while adding 162 hits as well, making him a solid all-around player despite seeing his plus-minus drop from a plus-15 in 2017-18 to a minus-five last year. The team must decide whether to keep Benning, who will also be a restricted free agent. Benning saw his playing time drop by almost three minutes since the previous year and might lose his job to some of the team’s young defensive prospects.

The team also have a number of veteran players, who will hit unrestricted free agency, including Kassian, who saw career highs in ATOI (14:48) and goals (15) and also put up 191 hits as a bottom-line forward for the team. At 28, he could be considered an important keeper for the Oilers. Unfortunately, Brodziak’s success in Edmonton wasn’t as impressive as the veteran center averaged just 11:42 of ATOI, while scoring career low six goals and nine points.

Two Years Remaining

F Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($6MM, UFA)
D Adam Larsson ($4.17MM, UFA)
D Kris Russell ($4MM, UFA)
F Alex Chiasson ($2.15MM, UFA)
F Jujhar Khaira ($1.2MM, RFA)

This could be an interesting year for Nugent-Hopkins, who has always been an excellent defensive player, but now has established himself as a solid offensive player as well with a career-high 28 goals and 69 points. However with his contract coming up in two years, the Oilers might want to decide whether he is worth handing a long-term, expensive deal to. If they aren’t ready to lock him up, the Oilers might get the most value for Nugent-Hopkins at the trade deadlines. After all, top-six centers rarely come available and considering that any team that trades for him automatically gets another full season out of him, he might become quite a valuable trade chip.

The Oilers must also decide what they want to do with two of their highly-paid defensemen in Larsson and Russell. Both blueliners receive more than 20 minutes a night, but neither provides much offensive talent and haven’t been that helpful lately on defense either and between the two of them, the Oilers are giving them $8.17MM. Larsson put up comparable offensive numbers last year, but saw his defensive numbers drop as his minus-28 plus-minus was his lowest in his career by far. Russell also had comparable numbers from the last couple of years and kept his plus-minus in the positive, but the team may look to find a taker for either of them at the trade deadline.

Chiasson earned his two-year deal after posting a career-high 22 goals last season after winning a job in training camp on a PTO. The team hopes that the 28-year-old can duplicate that season. Khaira scored just three goals last season and will have to prove that he belongs on the roster next season.

Three Years Remaining

G Mikko Koskinen ($4.5MM, UFA)

Edmonton surprised many when former general manager Peter Chiarelli signed Koskinen to a three-year, $13.5MM extension last season despite a small sample size as an NHL goaltender. Koskinen didn’t fare that well in the second half of the season after signing the extension, putting up a 3.07 GAA and a .902 save percentage, which could make this a rocky relationship if Koskinen can’t prove to Edmonton that he is a No. 1 goaltender. The 31-year-old goaltender has spent most of his career in the KHL and may not be the answer that the Oilers were hoping for.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Connor McDavid ($12.5MM through 2025-26)
F Leon Draisaitl ($8.5MM through 2024-25)
F James Neal ($5.75MM through 2022-23)
D Oscar Klefbom ($4.17MM through 2022-23)

The team has a couple of stud players in McDavid and Draisaitl and most would suggest that they are worth their contracts and they might even be bargains considering how well they were playing. Both have proven to be top-line players and they both broke the 100-point barrier last season and combining for 91 goals. The fact that both are locked up for at least another six years (seven for McDavid) shows that Edmonton already has a base of two franchise players and just need to fill out the rest of their roster with solid players who can fill out the rest of the team.

Neal is an interesting gamble by new general manager Ken Holland. The team was looking for a way to unload the untradeable contract of Milan Lucic, but managed to get the long-term deal of Neal, who is coming off 10 straight seasons of 20 goals or more, before his seven-goal performance last year in Calgary. The team hopes that the 31-year-old can prove that last year’s egg was just a fluke and the veteran can bounce back and provide some scoring on the wing for a team that really needs it.

Klefbom is another interesting defenseman, who the team hopes can improve, especially offensively. The 26-year-old managed 38 points back in the 2016-17 season, but has hasn’t been able to break 30 points since then. While his minutes are impressive, Edmonton needs to get more from one of their defensemen, who they signed assuming he would develop into a top-line defender.

Buyouts

D Andrej Sekera ($2.5MM in 2019-20 & 2020-21; $1.5MM in 2021-22 and 2022-23)
F Benoit Pouliot ($1.33MM per year through 2020-21)
D Eric Gryba ($300K in 2019-20)

Retained Salary Transactions

F Milan Lucic ($750K per year through 2022-23)

Still To Sign

F Jesse Puljujarvi

Much has already been written about the impasse between the Oilers and Puljujarvi, who has demanded to be traded because he believes he can’t become a top forward in Edmonton. Holland has received no viable offers from other NHL teams and it looks likely that Puljujarvi might have to stay overseas for a season and hope that he can develop his game overseas with Karpat of the Finnish League and come back in a year with a new sense of purpose. However, nothing has happened yet and there’s always a possibility that he opts to come back to Edmonton and tries it again. The only problem: he’s not waiver exempt anymore, meaning he must stay on Edmonton’s roster or be placed on waivers and undoubtedly would be claimed by another team.

Best Value: Draisaitl
Worst Value: Koskinen

Looking Ahead

The team has its franchise players and with plenty of cap space freeing up next season, the team might have a way to add even more talent. However, what Edmonton needs more than anything is to see some of their young talent take that next step and begin making some major improvements. The Oilers have a dearth of talent on defense that should slowly be trickling in over the next few years, but more than anything Edmonton needs scoring. While McDavid and Draisaitl cost the franchise a great deal, the team must find the wingers that can get the team back into the playoffs.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Oilers Notes: Offseason Plans, Nugent-Hopkins, Koskinen, Petrovic

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Despite quite a bit of struggles over the past couple of years, the Edmonton Oilers didn’t make a significant amount of changes this offseason. Sure, the team did acquire James Neal in a swap of bad contracts, sending off Milan Lucic, but little else was done. Much of that could be due to new general manager Ken Holland who wants to see more of his team before trading pieces away carelessly.

The Athletic’s Allan Mitchell (subscription required) writes that Holland should be quite busy over the next seven months as there are plenty of opportunities to upgrade. One obvious option is to pick up a free agent or two before training camp begins. The team already signed forward Josh Archibald a few weeks ago, but could add even more talent to their bottom-six. There are several significant names still available, including Derick Brassard, Thomas Vanek, Riley Sheahan, Magnus Paajarvi and Oscar Lindberg all as possibilities.

Mitchell also points out the Oilers could look to signing some players to PTO’s as well. The team got lucky last year when it signed Alex Chiasson to a PTO and eventually signed him as he scored 22 goals last season in a breakout campaign. There are a number of interesting players out there as well that might be willing to sign a PTO, including Valeri Nichushkin, Dmitrij Jaskin and Nicolas Kerdiles.

  • In the same article, Mitchell also notes that the team could find itself shopping a pair of their own players at the trade deadline as both Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Adam Larsson will be free agents after the 2020-21 season. If the team has little interest in handing either of them long-term deals, Holland might be better served trading them in February if the team is out of the playoff race, giving a buyer a chance to get a player who can help for their playoff run, but also a full year next season. The 26-year-old Nugent-Hopkins is coming off a career-high 28 goals and 69 points last season and could generate a solid return if the Oilers opted to move him at the trade deadline. Larsson, also 26, struggled last season with a minus-28 rating, but could still prove to be a solid defensive depth addition to a playoff team.
  • While Mikko Koskinen is being paid more than twice the amount of veteran backup Mike Smith, new head coach Dave Tippett says that he intends to split the minutes up between his two goaltenders equally, according to Edmonton Journal’s Derek Van Diest. The 31-year-old Koskinen was originally signed to take over full-time duties last season and will begin the first year of a three-year, $13.5MM deal, but still hasn’t proven to the team, fans or coaching that he deserves to be the team’s No. 1. “I hope they both play a similar amount of games and they’re both really good every one of them,” Tippett said at the Sixth Annual Mark Spector Golf Classic at the Quarry Golf Course on Wednesday. “Last year, I thought Koskinen looked tired. If you watch the last 20 games, he played a lot and mentally and physically, he looked tired.”
  • Former Edmonton Oilers defenseman Alexander Petrovic remains unsigned, but the Edmonton Journal’s Jim Matheson writes that he’s heard that there is interest from the rival Calgary Flames for the blue liner. The team could look to add a veteran depth defenseman like Petrovic, who just bought out Michael Stone. Petrovic, acquired in December from Florida for Chris Wideman and a 2019 third-round pick, played just nine games for the Oilers, posting a minus-seven in that time.

Calgary Flames Re-Sign David Rittich

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After a hot start to salary arbitration season with three hearings, things have cooled off of late with a slew of contract resolutions. Add another to the list, as the Calgary Flames and goaltender David Rittich have come to terms on an extension. The team announced that the 26-year-old net minder has signed on for two years at an AAV of $2.75MM. Rittich will be an unrestricted free agent when the deal expires after the 2020-21 season.

The Flames now have their 1A goalie back under contract, as Rittich outplayed veteran Mike Smith last season, earning 42 starts to Smith’s 40. Rittich posted career-high numbers in his second season as a Calgary regular, recording a .911 save percentage and 2.61 GAA. Not only were these numbers a personal best and substantially better than Smith’s, they were also top-20 marks among goalies with appearances in at least half of their team’s games, showing that Rittich could hold his own as the Flames’ top option. Given his age and level of play, albeit in limited appearances, it still seems like Calgary got a good value on this $5.5MM pact.

Still just 26 and without a lot of tread on the tires as timeshare goalie in the Czech pro ranks for many years, Rittich has the potential to continue improving as well. He will certainly be pushed in the upcoming season, as Smith has been replaced by the younger and arguably more talented Cam Talbot. Talbot signed a one-year deal this off-season with a $2.75 AAV that matches Rittich’s. The salaries would suggest an even split in net, but the incumbent Rittich has the advantage in familiarity and longer-term investment and should get the preference early on. If he can again prove that he is the superior option to a respected veteran, Rittich could see even more appearances in 2019-20 than he did last year, and perhaps another career performance as well.

The Rittich deal, although more than fair, does add more pressure to the Flames’ salary cap conundrum. CapFriendly currently projects the team to have $4.67MM in cap space. With Matthew Tkachuk still unsigned, as well as Andrew Mangiapane, that simply won’t be enough. Since Rittich had filed for arbitration, the Flames’ second case after their recent resolution with Sam Bennett, the team will be afforded a second buyout window, a 48-hour opportunity to rid themselves of a large contract that could help them sort out their financials. However, there is no obvious candidate for such a move and the team could instead continue shopping defensemen Travis Hamonic and T.J. Brodie and forward Michael Frolik in hopes of opening up more space.

Pacific Notes: Eriksson, Ritchie, Smith, Dillon

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With so many forwards now on their roster, the Vancouver Canucks coaching staff should have their hands full when training camp begins. The team now has 14 forwards under contract with two restricted free agents still to sign in Brock Boeser and Nikolay Goldobin. That’s a lot of players for just 12 spots in the lineup.

One player who should find himself highly scrutinized is Loui Eriksson, who has made it clear he wouldn’t mind a change of scenery as he has stated he isn’t a big fan of Travis Green and his coaching staff. Unfortunately, a trade might be challenging as Eriksson still has three years remaining at $6MM AAV. When Vancouver Sun’s Patrick Johnson asked general manager Jim Benning about the possibility of sending Eriksson to the Utica Comets of the AHL, Benning was slow to answer.

“I don’t have a direct answer for that right now,” he admitted.

Eriksson’s agent said he doesn’t expect his client to be waived or re-assigned to Utica. Not sure if Benning feels the same way.

  • With a large number of young wingers and recent two-way acquisitions this summer, the writing could be on the wall for winger Nick Ritchie, who still has two years remaining at a very reasonable $1.49MM. The 23-year-old hasn’t developed into the scoring power forward the team hoped for when they drafted him 10th overall in 2014 and he might be a perfect trade candidate, according to Eric Stephens of The Athletic (subscription required). Ritchie will have to fight for one of the left wing openings or he could find himself on a new team shortly.
  • Edmonton Journal’s Kurt Leavins writes that while many people are questioning the Oilers decision-making in signing veteran goaltender Mike Smith after a disappointing campaign last year in Calgary, the numbers may tell a different story. While the 37-year-old goaltender finished with less than stellar numbers: 42 games, 2.72 GAA and a .898 save percentage, he did finish strong at the end of the season. In his seven of his last 10 regular-season games, Smith finished with a .923 save percentage or higher. He also did the same in three of the five playoff games he appeared in. He could bounce back in a big way.
  • The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz (subscription required) looks at the Sharks salary cap situtation in 2020. The team should have $10.3MM in available salary cap space, but that doesn’t include an expected long-term deal for Kevin Labanc. However, the scribe notes that no matter what, the team will probably have to let defenseman Brenden Dillon go despite his value to the team’s blueline. However, if Radim Simek continues to get top-four minutes, Dillon would be only a third-pairing defenseman and wouldn’t be worth the $3.27MM he currently makes anyway, especially if he’s looking for a raise.

Cam Talbot Signs With Calgary Flames

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As has been rumored for some time, the Calgary Flames have pegged former rival goaltender Cam Talbot as the newest addition to their goalie tandem. The team has announced a one-year deal worth $2.75MM for the former starter, who should compete for the same role in Calgary. With Mike Smith headed to the Edmonton Oilers, it only seems fitting that Talbot land with the Flames to share the net with David Rittich. 

Talbot, 31, isn’t necessarily coming in to steal the starting role for the Flames, but GM Brad Treliving has tried to have competition in the net for the last several years. Rittich will almost surely get the first crack at the job, though given he only has 58 NHL starts under his belt the team needed to bring in a little more experience just in case. Talbot will be that experience but he too has something to prove coming off a dreadful season with the Oilers and Philadelphia Flyers. In 35 appearances he recorded a .892 save percentage, easily the worst number of his career.

Even if Rittich is the starter heading into the season, the Flames would obviously love to see Talbot rediscover his game and become the goaltender that finished fourth in Vezina Trophy voting in 2017. That season he went 42-22-8 for the Oilers and posted a .919 save percentage, starting an incredible 73 games. With a reduced load and better defensive unit, perhaps he can get back to that level again and help the Flames as contenders in the West.

Mike Smith Signs With Edmonton Oilers

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The Edmonton Oilers have signed veteran goaltender Mike Smith on the first day of free agency. Smith will earn $2MM on a one-year contract

With Mikko Koskinen under contract as their 1A, the Oilers have been looking for a 1B option in goal, but with little money to spend and quite a few holes to fill, the team didn’t have the option of signing one of the high-priced goalies on the market. While Smith has been a solid goaltender in previous years and was even an all-star in the 2017-18 season, the 37-year-old has declined more recently. He appeared in 42 games last season, but saw his save percentage drop below .900 for the first time since the 2010-11 season as he finished the year with at .898. However, the team hopes that Smith can rebound while sharing the net with Koskinen.

Smith would replace Cam Talbot, who was reported earlier today as likely to sign with Calgary, who served as the backup in Edmonton last year until the team traded him to Philadelphia. The Oilers picked up Anthony Stolarz in the deal, but didn’t show much interest in bringing him back. Smith should provide some stability next to Koskinen, who the team locked up to a three-year, $13.5MM deal earlier this year.

UFA Notes: Perry, Dzingel, Lee, Zuccarello, Talbot, Gilmour

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Perhaps one of the most interesting free agents out there seems to be Corey Perry. The veteran forward, recently bought out by the Anaheim Ducks has received interest from at least 10 teams, according to TSN’s Frank Seravalli. The 34-year-old winger is trying to narrow his choices to the best three to four today, but new teams keep jumping into the mix.

Sportsnet’s John Shannon reports that three or four teams are aggressively pursuing Perry as several teams are looking for a short-term option to help their team immediately. The Edmonton Oilers are considered one the four teams as they are trying to add as much help to the team’s top-six as possible, hoping that Perry might be able to help either Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl. Perry was limited to just 34 games last season, posting six goals and 10 points.

  • Ryan Dzingel’s name has heated up recently as Columbus Dispatch’s Brian Hedger reports that the scorer will not be returning to Columbus even with his Ohio ties. Reports that he clashed with head coach John Tortorella in his tenure with the Blue Jackets have made him look elsewhere. However, Sporting News Canada’s Murray Pam reports that two teams are vying for the 27 year old’s services, including the Chicago Blackhawks and the Colorado Avalanche. The Blackhawks could make the most sense for Dzingel as Chicago attempted to trade for him at the trade deadline, before he ended up with Columbus, and he also own a home in the Chicago area. Dzingel scored 26 goals and had 56 points between Ottawa and Columbus last season and could be a great second-line target for the right team.
  • With Anders Lee seemingly less and less likely to re-sign with the New York Islanders, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that he wouldn’t be surprised if the Montreal Canadiens go after the 28-year-old winger. Lee, who has tallied 68 goals over the past two seasons is looking for a long-term deal, which the Islanders have balked at so far. However, the Canadiens who are loaded with plenty of young forwards may be interested in adding a veteran leader who can help out both on the ice and in the locker room.
  • The Athletic’s Michael Russo (subscription required) reports that the Minnesota Wild are actively pursuing unrestricted free agent forward Mats Zuccarello and are prepared to offer him a long-term deal. The scribe adds that the Columbus Blue Jackets are also in the mix for the rights to the veteran forward. The 31-year-old was traded to Dallas at the trade deadline this year and he performed well in the playoffs (four goals and 11 points in 13 games), but the two opted to part ways when contract negotiations fell apart. The Wild have approximately $17.4MM in cap room to spend this offseason, although they still have to sign several of their restricted free agents, including Kevin Fiala, Ryan Donato and Joel Eriksson Ek. Russo adds the team is also looking at forward Ryan Hartman.
  • Flames radio host Pat Steinberg reports that all signs point to the Calgary Flames signing goaltender Cam Talbot Monday, likely to a one-year deal. Calgary looks like they intend to part ways with veteran Mike Smith, which could give Talbot, who has been playing for the rival Oilers for the past four years, minus the last few months when he was traded to Philadelphia. Talbot struggled last season with a 3.40 GAA and a .892 save percentage in 35 games between the two teams.
  • Fox Sports Midwest’s Andy Strickland reports that there is mutual interest between the Buffalo Sabres and unrestricted free agent defenseman John Gilmour, who became a Group 6 free agent this offseason. After appearing in 28 games in the 2017-18 season, Gilmour appeared in just five games this season and didn’t look to be in the team’s plans with so many young blueliners passing him. Regardless, the 26-year-old fared well in the AHL, putting up 20 goals and 54 points in 70 games for the Hartford Wolf Pack.

Snapshots: Puljujarvi, Myers, Smith

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Jesse Puljujarvi might have no plans of playing for the Edmonton Oilers this season, but that doesn’t mean the team is simply going to give up his rights. Mark Spector of Sportsnet reports that the Oilers will issue Puljujarvi a qualifying offer before tomorrow’s deadline in order to retain his rights even if the young forward plays in Europe. This is obviously the expected move as even though he hasn’t worked out in Edmonton the Oilers invested quite a bit of draft capital in Puljujarvi when the selected him fourth overall in 2016.

A qualifying offer for Puljujarvi would only amount to $874,125 in NHL salary, but would still be a two-way deal because he has played so few games for the Oilers the last three years. It seems very unlikely that he would accept it at this point, even if he does still need to prove his worth at the NHL level. Puljujarvi has recorded 37 points in his 139 NHL games, including just nine last season.

  • Tyler Myers is expected to be one of the top defensemen available this offseason now that Erik Karlsson has re-signed, and the Winnipeg Jets free agent may be in line for a huge contract. Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports was on Sportsnet radio today and suggested that Myers may get a seven-year deal somewhere between $6-8MM per season. The 29-year old is coming off a seven-year, $38.5MM deal ($5.5MM AAV) originally signed with the Buffalo Sabres, and has the added benefit of being arguably the top right-handed defenseman left in free agency. Myers recorded 31 points in 80 games last season for the Jets, while averaging more than 20 minutes a night.
  • Goaltender Mike Smith has spoken to several teams now that the free agent interview period has opened according to Frank Seravalli of TSN, who notes that the “door isn’t completely closed” on a potential return to the Calgary Flames. Seravalli suggests that the Carolina Hurricanes could be a team to watch however, a team whose own goaltenders—Petr Mrazek and Curtis McElhinney—are also pending free agents.

Calgary Flames, Matthew Tkachuk Taking Time To Get Deal Done

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The Calgary Flames have many offseason tasks they must deal with this summer, but the No. 1 priority of the team is locking up their top restricted free agent, Matthew Tkachuk. However, with a number of big-name restricted free agents cashing in on mega contracts in the last couple of years, the negotiations are expected to take a while. In fact, The Fourth Period reports that the two sides are in no rush to get a deal done quickly.

Both Calgary and Tkachuk have already had initial discussions, but negotiations aren’t expected to pick up again until later this month, most likely after the NHL Entry Draft. Much of the initial discussions likely dealt with the type of deal that Tkachuk is looking for as he could either sign a short-term bridge deal or a long-term deal. If the team isn’t ready to shell out an expensive long-term deal, they could offer a three-year bridge deal in hopes of seeing whether Tkachuk is worthy of such a deal that would take him to his final year of restricted free agency.

Several restricted free agents have cashed in recently, especially in Toronto as Auston Matthews signed a five-year, $58.2MM contract ($11.63MM AAV) in February, while William Nylander signed a six-year, $45MM deal ($6.96MM AAV) in December after holding out. There are quite a few key restricted free agents this offseason and Tkachuk might want to wait some of them out to see what the market sets at, including Toronto’s Mitch Marner, Carolina’s Sebastian Aho, San Jose’s Timo Meier and Winnipeg’s Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor amongst others.

Tkachuk is coming off a breakout season in the final year of his entry-level deal as he potted 35 goals and picked up 77 points this season, something they were hoping for after they drafted him sixth overall in 2016. A physical, menace-type player, Tkachuk is critical to the team’s long-term plans, but with plenty of cap concerns approaching, the team could opt to give him a little less money if he accepts a shorter-term deal. However, a long-term deal might be the preferred outcome in case Tkachuk continues to take steps forward in his development, which is quite possible considering he’s still only 21 years old.

The Flames are projected to have more than $14MM in cap space this offseason, giving them the room to lock up Tkachuk to a long-term deal, although the team still has other key restricted free agents in Sam Bennett, Andrew Mangiapane and goaltender David Rittich to sign. The team also must decide on whether to bring back unrestricted free agent Mike Smith in net to pair with Rittich. If not, the team will have to find a goaltender on the free agent market to replace him. That could take up a significant amount of cap room, although there have been rumors the team could move one of their veteran defenseman, either T.J. Brodie or Travis Hamonic, to open up some more cap space and free up a defensive roster spot for some of their upcoming defensive prospects. General manager Brad Treliving might also attempt to trade forward James Neal and his bloated $5.75MM AAV contract, although finding a taker might prove to be a challenge considering he has four more years remaining on his contract.

UFA Notes: Duchene, Smith, Simmonds, Vanek

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Speaking about the impending unrestricted free agent class on Sportsnet’s “31 Thoughts Podcast“, Elliott Friedman updated the statuses of several prominent UFA’s-to-be. Of course, few names will draw as much attention (and money) as Matt Duchene. Following a 70-point season and point-per-game postseason, there is little doubt the Duchene is the best available center and will soon cash in on a contract worth upwards of $60-70MM. What remains is simply who has the means and the interest to make that offer to Duchene. Although they would have to move out salary, Friedman echoes the sentiment that the Nashville Predators should not be counted out of the Duchene sweepstakes until a deal is done. The mutual interest between the two sides is well-documented, but the hurdles of clearing the necessary space remain. As such, Friedman also mentions that the Montreal Candiens are expected to be one of the front-runners for Duchene. The Habs have approximately $11.7MM in projected cap space with almost their entire 2018-19 roster locked up and are simply looking to add pieces to help them get into the playoffs after narrowly missing out this season. Duchene is the top center they need and fortunately can afford and Friedman hears that there is interest.

  • Friedman believes that the goalie market will be more active than many realize. With the growing trend of having a 1A-1B tandem or at least a well-rested starter, the value of backup goalies is going up and Friedman feels a veteran player like Mike Smith could be a beneficiary. Smith, 37, endured one of the worst seasons of his career in 2018-19, but played much better in the postseason despite the Calgary Flames’ early exit. There is still a chance that Smith could stay in Calgary and continue his tandem with David Rittich. However, the Flames are reportedly considering an upgrade. Yet, Smith could be of value to many other teams looking for an established veteran to be their backup. Smith is no longer a 50-game or maybe even 40-game goaltender, but Friedman feels he still has the pedigree to land a significant deal. Of course, if the goalie market is active, that means others like Semyon Varlamov, Brian Elliott, Cam Talbot, or Curtis McElhinney will be in the running for those priority backup jobs as well.
  • Another player whose market may be greater than once expected is power forward Wayne Simmonds. Simmonds had a dreadful year, recording just 30 points on the season, his lowest total since his rookie campaign. Just three of those points came after he was traded to the Nashville Predators and then Simmonds missed a chance at redemption as injury kept him out of all but two of the Predators’ postseason games. With his stock at its lowest, many were reasonably expecting Simmonds to draw considerably less interest this off-season than he may have just one year ago. However, Friedman warns that the performance of a player like the St. Louis Blues’ Pat Maroon may change that. Maroon has shown that hard-nosed, physical forwards still have a place in the game, particularly in the playoffs. Friedman feels Maroon – who is also a UFA – has reinvigorated the market for similar players, such as Simmonds or an experienced two-way forward like Derick Brassard, who himself had a down year. Simmonds is still unlikely to get the kind of contract he would have just a year or two ago, but he won’t be unemployed for very long despite his poor season.
  • Friedman wonders what the market will be like for veteran forward Thomas Vanek. After back-to-back seasons of being a valuable trade deadline commodity, Vanek finally stayed put this year with the Detroit Red Wings after requesting not to be dealt. Yet, Vanek finds himself on the move again as a free agent. The 35-year-old saw a major drop-off in production this year and is unlikely to be a fit back in Detroit. In fact, Friedman doesn’t see an obvious fit anywhere for Vanek, who has played for eight different teams in his long and successful NHL career. A veteran “hired gun” who also isn’t keen on moving is a tough player to fit and Friedman says there’s a chance that Vanek is done.

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