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The Worst Case Scenario In Ottawa

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While the result is not yet final, the Ottawa Senators are in the midst tonight of what will likely end as a big loss to the Buffalo Sabres, the only team in the Eastern Conference with a worse record (for now). The team is in free fall, losing four straight games and eleven of their past twelve, not including tonight’s result. At 9-12-7, the Senators hold the third worst record in the NHL and rumors are swirling that no one on the roster is safe.

Back on November 5th, things seemed to be trending upward for Ottawa as GM Pierre Dorion was finally able to swing a trade to bring in coveted center Matt Duchene. In the process, the Senators gave up another legitimate top six center in Kyle Turris, goalie Andrew Hammond, 2016 first-rounder Shane Bowers, a 2019 third-round pick and a conditional 2018 first-round pick. Duchene has just four points and a -11 rating in 14 games with Ottawa so far and it’s already safe to say that the trade hasn’t worked out as planned.

So what’s next? With the Senators struggling, the conditional first-round pick sent to the Avalanche becomes very interesting. The 2018 pick is “top-ten protected”, meaning – as is likely – if Ottawa finished in the bottom third of the league, they retain their first round pick. Colorado would then get the Senators’ 2019 first-rounder. However, there is significant risk associated with that scenario. While the 2017-18 Sens have been underwhelming, there is enough talent on the roster to avoid falling apart entirely. The 2018-19 Senators though are another story. Ottawa just recently requested no-trade lists from ten key players and a fire sale could begin this season. The result could be an even worse squad next season and an even better pick heading to Colorado, perhaps even a top pick like center Jack Hughes or defenseman Bowen Byram.

So what is the worst case scenario in Ottawa? The team continues to struggle this year and is even worse next season, missing out on a potential franchise-altering prospect. After two years of failure, the team loses, via trade or free agency, Duchene, Erik Karlsson, Derick Brassard, and more. It may seem like a stretch, but it is in fact very possible. These are dark days in Ottawa, but the truth is that this could just be the beginning.

Ottawa Senators Plummet While Trade Speculation Heats Up

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The Ottawa Senators were within a goal of the Stanley Cup Final last season. On the backs of heroic performances by Erik Karlsson and Craig Anderson, a trapping, defensive team pushed the Pittsburgh Penguins to the brink of elimination before bowing out in double overtime of game seven. That had fans of the team excited about this season, and pushing for GM Pierre Dorion to add to a team that was close to the Stanley Cup.

As former NHL executive Frank Provenzano notes for The Athletic though, thinking your team is close to winning it all after one unexpected playoff run can be dangerous. Provenzano is among the first (of what is sure to be many) to suggest what had previously been unthinkable: perhaps it’s time to consider trading Karlsson.

Erik KarlssonJust a few weeks ago the Senators went out and added Matt Duchene, bringing in a former Olympian who was expected to kick-start their offense. The fact that he had just a year and a half left on his deal (coincidentally the same length as Karlsson) didn’t matter, as they were close enough that he could push them over the edge right away. They needed to move out Kyle Turris (and several other pieces) to do so, but he seemed unlikely to re-sign with the team after this season when he became an unrestricted free agent. The problem there is, as Craig Button screamed into the radio airwaves yesterday on TSN 1050, “they traded a better player for a lesser player.” Button believes Turris is better than Duchene right now, and the early returns would back him up.

Turris has 12 points in 13 games for the Nashville Predators since the deal, while Duchene has just two. The Senators meanwhile have gone 3-8-1 with Duchene in the lineup, including losing seven of their last eight in regulation. That has seen them tumble down in the standings, even as they play in arguably the weakest division in the NHL. As of Thursday, they find themselves ahead of only Buffalo in the Atlantic Division and tied with the Florida Panthers with 24 points. Not good enough for a team that expected to compete.

While the NHL season is far from over, and a rebound from the team is more than just possible, it may be time to start thinking about drastic changes to their core group. As noted above, Karlsson is only signed until the summer of 2019 and has made it clear that he’ll cost a boatload on the open market. Derick Brassard and Mike Hoffman are signed for one and two years respectively after this season, and are both no longer young players with years of improvement ahead of them. Mark Stone, the team’s best forward will hit restricted free agency this summer and should expect a big deal, but it’s not clear how long-term he’ll want to go with the club. Stone will turn 26 before the summer hits, and could get to unrestricted free agency himself with just a one-year deal.

It’s not over for the Senators just yet, but Provenzano’s article won’t be the first written about the possibility of a Karlsson trade. After July 1st hits, and an extension is possible, every passing day will fuel speculation on whether the team should move him before he hits the open market. As one of the most valuable players in the league, it’s not clear who would even have the guts to give up the kind of package Ottawa would need in return. But it’s an interesting possibility if the season continues to progress as it has so far for the Senators.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Ottawa Senators’ Struggles Could Lead To More Movement

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The Ottawa Senators were facilitators of the biggest trade of the season so far, when they acquired Matt Duchene from the Colorado Avalanche while sending out Kyle Turris and a package of picks and prospects. That deal certainly shook things up in the Canadian capital, but so far not for the better. The Senators have gone 3-7-1 with Duchene in the lineup, and the former Avalanche center has just two points during that stretch. The struggles may lead to some more changes, as Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun reports.

Cody CeciGarrioch singles out Cody Ceci as the team’s top trade asset, noting that the Avalanche did try to acquire him in a deal for Duchene before the Nashville Predators were involved. Ceci’s high value isn’t all that surprising given his relative youth and experience, but some would say that it’s not warranted. The 23-year old defenseman rates very poorly in possession statistics, but at least part of that is due to his role playing against some top competition. Still, with just three even strength points on the year Ceci is struggling just like the rest of the roster.

The problem with Ottawa looking to acquire more talent though is that they don’t operate as a cap ceiling team. Moving out money—including Andrew Hammond’s $1.35MM contract, that was already barely affecting the cap—was an important part of the Duchene deal, as the team can’t afford to pay out much more salary, especially if there are no playoff revenues on the way. That would suggest a player would be on his way out, but there are few obvious options.

Ceci is a restricted free agent at the end of the year, and will be expected a substantial raise from his current $2.8MM deal, but it’s obviously the Senators’ preference to keep him. Derick Brassard has just one more season at $5MM on the books, but would leave a gaping hole in the team’s center depth should he be moved. Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf are both too expensive for their performance, but likely have too much money left on their deals to really drum up any interest, and you’re not trading Mike Hoffman, Mark Stone or Erik Karlsson.

The next move for the Senators might have to come internally as Garrioch suggests, but they’ve already given Thomas Chabot a bump in responsibility and it hasn’t worked. Bringing up young forwards like Colin White, Filip Chlapik or Nick Paul could be next, but none look like game-changing presences at the moment. There’s no clear answer in Ottawa, but you can be sure GM Pierre Dorion is working to find one.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Colorado Avalanche

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As the holiday season approaches, PHR will look at what teams are thankful for as the season nears the quarter point of completion. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We take a look at what’s gone well in the first month and what could improve as the season rolls on. Yesterday we examined at the Washington Capitals.

What are the Colorado Avalanche most thankful for?

A conclusion to the Matt Duchene saga.

The hockey world has been all over the Avalanche and GM Joe Sakic for how they handled a trade request from one of their star players. Duchene wanted to get out of Colorado during a brutal 2016-17 season, but Sakic wasn’t willing to make a move until his high price was met. Earlier this month the bill was paid by the Ottawa Senators and Nashville Predators, and the unhappy Duchene can finally move on.

Sakic needed to include a third team in the deal but eventually did get his reported ask of a young mobile defenseman, first-round pick and top prospect. In fact, he even added another prospect and two other draft picks to that total, coming away with quite the haul for a single player. Samuel Girard (the young defenseman) has flashed his top-pairing potential early, while Duchene has struggled to get on the scoresheet in Ottawa. Though it is far from decided, Sakic came out of a hard situation quite well after months of harsh criticism.

Who are the Avalanche most thankful for?

Nathan MacKinnonNathan MacKinnon.

Overshadowed by the terrible record of the team, MacKinnon once again had a solid season for the Avalanche a year ago. With 53 points he easily led the team, and set career highs in shots and faceoff percentage. While nothing from last year’s Avalanche can be considered a positive, he at least wasn’t the anchor pulling the team down.

This year is another story. MacKinnon, surrounded by a young more dangerous offensive squad is off to a tremendous start with 25 points in 20 games. That number puts him among the leaders in the league, and at the ripe old age of 22 there is still a legitimate chance his game could get even better over the next few years. Locked in at just $6.3MM per season through 2022-23, the Avalanche are in a prime position to build around their underpaid superstar with the next wave of talent.

What would the Avalanche be even more thankful for?

A return to form for Semyon Varlamov.

In 2013-14 a 25-year old Varlamov played in 63 games for the Avalanche, recording a league-leading 41 wins and posting a .927 save percentage. That was good enough to earn him a fourth-place finish in Hart Trophy voting, while coming in just behind Tuukka Rask for the Vezina. Varlamov was an elite goaltender in the league and was rewarded with a five-year extension mid-season.

Since then, his save percentage has dropped to an average .913 and sits at just .903 this season. While last year’s struggles can be explained away at least somewhat by injury, this year has shown him to be an average-at-best netminder in the league. A bounce-back to his previous highs would make the Avalanche an legitimate bubble candidate for the playoffs, if they aren’t already.

Varlamov has another year left on that extension after this season at $5.9MM, and will have to prove he can still be a starting goaltender in this league if he wants another contract with the Avalanche.

What should be on the Avalanche Holiday Wish List?

More young defensemen.

Even though the team has added Girard, brought over Andrei Mironov and drafted Cale Makar, there is still a shortage of NHL-caliber defenders in their system. Nikita Zadorov fulfilling some of his potential would help, but the team will likely still be after other intriguing young defensemen on the trade market.

With some interesting trade chips to use this season—there is no telling whether Gabriel Landeskog and Tyson Barrie are still on the market, but they weren’t part of Sakic’s “untouchable” group last year—the Avalanche could once again infuse some immediate talent into the back end.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Senators Claim Gabriel Dumont Off Waivers

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The Ottawa Senators have made the best kind of in-season roster addition, the kind that doesn’t cost them anything. After trading away substantial resources for Matt Duchene, it would have been easy to assume that the Sens would stand pat for the remainder of the season. However, that is not the case, as Ottawa has announced that they have claimed forward Gabriel Dumont off of waivers.

Dumont, 27, has been a member of the Tampa Bay Lightning for the past year plus, after leaving the Montreal Canadiens to sign with Tampa in 2016. While it may not look like much, Dumont’s 39 games, two goals, and four points last season were all career highs, as the undersized forward carved out a role for himself as an energy liner and reliable AHL depth. Before coming to Tampa, Dumont was a high-scoring AHLer for the Canadiens, but has settled into a more gritty, two-way role that better serves his NHL pursuits. In seven games so far in 2017-18, Dumont has been held scoreless, but is averaging over ten minutes of ice time per night for the first time in his NHL career.

Yet, Dumont has cleared waivers multiple times since signing with the Bolts. Why now have the Senators claimed him? It may have less to do with Dumont’s talent and more to do with Ottawa’s lack of talent. Dealing with many different injuries this season, at times the Senators lineup has featured a majority of players best suited for their minor league affiliate in Belleville. Rather than continue to depend on the likes of Nick Paul, Chris DiDomenico, Jack Rodewald, Max McCormick and even defenseman Ben Harpur at forward, Dumont brings some experience and fourth-line reliability that the Senators could really use.

Minor Transactions: 11/22/17

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With everyone but St. Louis in action tonight before the day off tomorrow, it could be a busy day for promotions and demotions across the NHL. Keep up with all the action right here:

  • The Montreal Canadiens have recalled blue liner Jakub Jerabek from the AHL, according to TVA’s Renaud Lavoie. Jerabek is in his first season in North America after signing with the Habs this summer. However, the Czech native has yet to make his NHL debut, as Montreal has plenty of veteran albeit under-performing defensive depth. However, with the Laval Rocket, Jerabek has 11 points in 17 games and is a +10; impressive totals worthy of a recall. Jerabek also had the option of returning to Europe if he had not been recalled by mid-December, so there is strategy to the Canadiens’ move as well.
  • Another young import, Finnish forward Henrik Haapala, could also make his NHL debut tonight. Per NHL.com’s Tom Gulitti, the Florida Panthers have called up the small scoring winger. Haapala is in his first season in North America after scoring 60 points in 51 games in the Finnish Liiga last year. Thus far in 2017-18, Haapala has seven points in 11 games for the AHL’s Springfield Thunderbirds. The Panthers have been liberal with number of call-ups and variety of players called up so far this season, as Haapala is just the latest to join the list.
  • Philadelphia is bringing in reinforcements. The team announced the return of young defenseman Samuel Morin and the first recall for forward Danick Martel. Morin is a name most fans recognize as a former first-round pick of the Flyers, however it is Martel who may be more intriguing. In his fourth pro season, Martel has exploded this year, leading the AHL with 14 goals. Martel scored just 20 goals last season and already has half as many points in 17 games as he did all of last year in 68 games. The Flyers surely hope that his hot hand continues at the next level.
  • In a corresponding move, Philly also sent defenseman Mark Alt and veteran forward Matt Read to the AHL’s Lehigh Valley Phantoms. It was only a matter of time (and health) before Morin replaced Alt on the NHL roster, but the demotion of Read is certainly a big deal. The long-time Flyer cleared waivers last week and will now head to the minors, his 400+ games of NHL experience not enough to keep him around.
  • Colorado has recalled goalie Andrew Hammond and the former Senators keeper could make his Avalanche debut sooner than expected. Hammond was acquired as more or less a salary dump by Ottawa in the recent Matt Duchene–Kyle Turris blockbuster. With Semyon Varlamov and Jonathan Bernier in the net, no one thought Hammond would be anything more than a depth asset for the Avs. However, with Varlamov too sick to even suit up, “The Hamburglar” will get his chance. After a remarkable run for the Sens in 2015-16, Hammond struggled greatly in both the NHL and AHL last season and could use a fresh start.
  • The Edmonton Oilers have made a flurry of moves already today, first terminating the contract of Ziyat Paigin, who predictably cleared unconditional waivers yesterday. Paigin came over from the KHL last season, but it was never a good fit between the two sides. Paigin failed to record a point in the only 12 AHL games he played. With no chance of a bump up to the NHL, Paigin wished to return to Russia and the Oilers were more than willing to oblige him. Edmonton then recalled defenseman Ryan Stanton from the Bakersfield Condors. A free agent acquisition this off-season, the journeyman rearguard could help out the struggling Oilers with his sound defensive game. In a corresponding move, veteran forward Brad Malone was reassigned to the AHL.
  • Julius Honka is headed back to the minors, as the talented, young blue liner was demoted by the Dallas Stars today in exchange for forward Curtis McKenzie, per a team announcement.  The Stars have been underwhelming in 2017-18, but their biggest issues continues to be goal prevention. As promising an offensive defenseman as Honka may be, he’s not what Dallas needs right now. Perhaps two-way forward McKenzie, who is also scoring at a point-per-game pace in the AHL, can help the cause.

Trade Rumors: Coyotes, Canadiens, Jets, Islanders

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In all likelihood, the recent three-way trade that sent Matt Duchene to the Ottawa Senators and Kyle Turris to the Nashville Predators will be the biggest deal made this season. Yet, that hasn’t stopped the whispers of an bustling trade market, especially this early in the season. At the quarter pole of the 2017-18 campaign, it’s been an unpredictable season, prompting an unexpectedly active market. The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch has had his ear to the ground and has plenty of input on who the buyers and sellers are right now:

  • To no one’s surprise, Garrioch states that the floundering Arizona Coyotes are “willing to talk about pretty much every player on their roster”. That of course doesn’t include Calder-hopeful Clayton Keller or many of their other 21-and-under starters, but the rest of the roster may as well be up for grabs. The big off-season acquisitions of Derek Stepan, Antti Raanta, Niklas Hjalmarsson, and Jason Demers have done nothing to change this team’s ability to win hockey games. At some point, GM John Chayka is going to go from “up-and-coming” to “up-and-went” and that pressure could force him to make some major moves as he rethinks his rebuild. While impending UFA’s like Raanta, Brad Richardson, and Luke Schenn would be the easiest pieces to move, the stakes are high for a Coyotes team whose core has done next to nothing for years and key pieces like Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Max Domi, Anthony Duclair, and Tobias Rieder could soon be on their way out.
  • Perhaps the only team more disappointing than Arizona in 2017-18 is the farthest team from them across North America: the Montreal Canadiens. Under new head coach Claude Julien, the Habs have fallen apart. However, the newly-signed coach isn’t going anywhere, putting GM Marc Bergevin, who Garrioch calls ” the NHL’s most active GM”, on the hot seat. Bergevin may be willing to make a big move to save his job, and of course the first name that comes to mind is young forward Alex Galchenyuk, who has predictably struggled under the defense-first Julien. Galchenyuk seems lost in Montreal, without an identifiable position, role, or spot in the lineup, and could use a change of scenery. However, he is not wholly to blame for the Canadiens’ struggles. Tomas Plekanec has long been on the block and if the team truly commits to a rebuild, big names like Max Pacioretty, Shea Weber, and (if anyone is willing to take on his monstrous new contract) even Carey Price could soon join the list.
  • Garrioch mentions both the Winnipeg Jets and New York Islanders as possible sellers, but given the surprising success of both clubs thus far, neither is likely rushing to trade pieces away unless they can make their teams better this season. Impending Jets UFA’s Shawn Matthias and Matt Hendricks may draw interest, but if Winnipeg is in playoff position come deadline time, they would want veteran depth for themselves. It seems more likely that GM Kevin Cheveldayoff could use his overflow of young forwards like Marko Dano, Joel Armia, Andrew Copp, Adam Lowry, or Brandon Tanev as trade bait to bring in another top-six forward for a team that doesn’t shoot the puck nearly enough. As for the Islanders, Garrioch singles out first-time UFA Calvin de Haan as the player to watch. Yet, de Haan is one of, if not the best shot-blocker in the NHL, can play major minutes, and is reliable in both ends. If the Isles can resign him, wouldn’t they? Obviously, John Tavares is the main focus and the team thinks highly of younger options like Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock, but the loss of a player like de Haan, especially with Travis Hamonic now in Calgary, could cripple a playoff-bound Islanders squad. Odds are de Haan sticks around, at least as long as New York remains playoff-bound.
  • So who’s looking? Garrioch mentions the Florida Panthers, Calgary Flames, Columbus Blue Jackets, and the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins as suitors for forward help, with the Dallas Stars potentially looking to make another big blue line trade to turn their season around. With that many buyers and several disappointed sellers, the trade NHL trade market may not wait until 2018 to heat up.

Snapshots: Price, Girard, Kane, Devils

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Montreal Canadiens goalie Carey Price has been out with a “minor” lower-body injury since Montreal’s Nov. 2 game against the Minnesota Wild. Two weeks later, Price hasn’t returned to the lineup. Last Tuesday, it was announced that he would sit out two days (Tuesday and Wednesday) as his injury wasn’t healing as suspected. Then he proceeded to sit out of practice Thursday, Friday and Saturday and the team didn’t practice Sunday. That led Montreal Gazette’s Stu Cowan to suggest that things don’t seem to be adding up in Montreal.

The scribe writes that this no longer seems like a “minor” injury at all and questions whether it ever was. When Cowan asked Canadiens’ coach Claude Julien about whether there was an update on Price’s condition, his response was, “No.”

No one has said what the specific injury is that Price has sustained and the goalie insists that it has nothing to do with the right knee injury in November two years ago that was also held secret for a large chunk of the season. Cowan suggests the lack of information the team has given out can only lead to speculation, suggesting that maybe the team might be looking to trade Price before his eight year, $84MM extension kicks in next year.

  • Mike Chambers of the Denver Post tweets that Colorado Avalanche defenseman Samuel Girard is in the lineup against the Detroit Red Wings, meaning that he officially has entered into Year 1 of his entry-level deal. He played five games for the Nashville Predators, and after being dealt to Colorado in the Matt Duchene trade, has played five games for the Avalanche. He would have had to be returned to his junior team before he played in his 10th game had the team wanted to avoid burning the first year of his entry-level deal.
  • The Athletic’s Craig Custance (subscription required) did a Q&A on Buffalo Sabres winger Evander Kane and the forward was quick to say that he is well aware of the trade speculation that surrounds him and rather than block it out, he just chooses to focus on his on-ice play. “It’s not going to do you any good or help your case or your team. For me, I just embrace it. I enjoy it. It’s something that you have to be aware of,” Kane said.
  • Andrew Gross of The Record writes that the New Jersey Devils have shaken up their lines in practice today, which are expected to go into effect in their game Monday against Minnesota Wild. There will be several changes, but Pavel Zacha, who was a healthy scratch for four of the last five games, is expected to move into the top six, while Adam Henrique is expected to move down to the fourth line.

 

Columbus Blue Jackets Continue Search For Center Help

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After signing Cam Atkinson to a new seven-year extension, Aaron Portzline of The Athletic reports that the Columbus Blue Jackets have redoubled their efforts in search of a center to add to their lineup. Knowing exactly what Atkinson will be making down the road, and that he’ll be a fixture in the top-six for a long while allows the team to more accurately pursue players that will fit into their salary structure. We’d previously heard that they had made an offer for Matt Duchene, clearly showing their interest in chasing the big fish on the market. GM Jarmo Kekalainen is currently at the GM Meetings in Montreal, always an event that is watched with a close eye for potential trade talk.

It’s unclear who exactly the Blue Jackets would be pursuing, as Duchene and Kyle Turris represented the top two center names expected to be traded. While some teams may still consider Alex Galchenyuk a center, much of the rental market—that is, players who are unrestricted free agents at the end of the year—and known trade candidates reside on the wing. There are names like Joe Thornton, John Tavares, Paul Stastny and Henrik Sedin all set to hit the open market but none of them seem like realistic trade candidates at this point.

More likely it would have to be a lesser-known name. Tyler Bozak and Mikael Backlund are also free agents at the end of the year, but are currently on teams looking to compete for the Stanley Cup. Valtteri Filppula and Tomas Plekanec will also hit the market but are past their prime as key offensive pieces. With this renewed interest coming from Atkinson’s future though, it seems to point to the fact that they’d be after a player with term. The Blue Jackets have several young defenders that they could dangle thanks to the immediate impact Zach Werenski has made, while they also have extra wingers that could be moved for an immediate upgrade. For a team that looks poised to compete in the tough Metropolitan Division, nothing seems too drastic.

Vladislav Kamenev Out Indefinitely With Broken Arm

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Imagine the worst way to make an impact for your new team. That’s what happened to Vladislav Kamenev, who was playing in his first game for the Colorado Avalanche when he suffered a broken arm. The young forward is out indefinitely according to Mike Chambers of the Denver Post, cutting short his Colorado debut before it even really had a chance to start. Kamenev was acquired along with Samuel Girard from the Nashville Predators in last week’s Matt Duchene–Kyle Turris swap, and was expected to stick with the NHL club for at least the time being.

The 21-year old Kamenev was drafted by the Predators 42nd-overall in 2014, and has developed into a solid two-way center that figures into the Avalanche long-term plans. He made his NHL debut last season with a pair of games for Nashville, but is still looking for his first big-league point. In 14 AHL games split between Milwaukee and San Antonio, he has 12 points.

Colorado head coach Jared Bednar spoke about the unfortunate situation after the game, saying that they “know what they have” in Kamenev and will patiently wait for his return. While some may immediately point to Tyson Jost (who was sent down to the minor leagues this week) as a potential call-up, Bednar and the front office believes getting some playing time with San Antonio is better for his development.

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