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Jason Spezza

2018-19 Season Primer: Dallas Stars

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With the NHL season now less than a week away, we continue our look at what each team has done this summer and what to watch for in the year to come. Next up is a look at the Dallas Stars.

Last Season: 42-32-8 record (92 points), sixth in the Central Division (missed the playoffs)

Remaining Cap Space: $4,445,835 per CapFriendly

Key Additions: F Blake Comeau (free agent, Colorado), F Erik Condra (free agent, Tampa Bay), D Joel Hanley (free agent, Arizona), G Anton Khudobin (free agent, Boston), F Michael Mersch (free agent, Los Angeles), D Roman Polak (free agent, Toronto).

Key Subtractions: D Andrew Bodnarchuk (free agent, Red Bull Munchen, DEL), F Brian Flynn (free agent, St. Louis), D Dan Hamhuis (free agent, Nashville), G Mike McKenna (free agent, Ottawa), F Curtis McKenzie (free agent, Vegas), D Greg Pateryn (free agent, Minnesota), F Antoine Roussel (free agent, Vancouver),

[Related: Stars Depth Chart From Roster Resource]

Player To Watch: F Tyler Seguin — The Stars have placed all their faith in Seguin to lead the team to the playoffs and beyond this summer when they signed the 26-year-old to an eight-year, $78.8MM extension this summer. While that $9.85MM AAV doesn’t kick in until the 2019-20 season, the team hopes that Seguin is finally ready to take that next step as an NHL elite player.

The center did post a 40-goal season for the first time in his career, but he has only surpassed 80 points once in his career. While he is expected to man the top line once again alongside veteran Jamie Benn and Alexander Radulov, the team hopes he can take that next step and be a consistent 80 or 90-point player the team truly needs.

Key Storyline: What the team needs more than anything is secondary depth at forward. While the first line was impressive offensively, the remaining lines were the opposite of that as few players stepped up and showed they can score goals. The team had hopes last year that players such as Radek Faksa, Brett Ritchie, Jason Spezza and Martin Hanzal would make up the remaining bulk of the scoring, but none of them did. While Faksa’s defensive game took big strides, he still posted just 33 points last season. Ritchie was even worse, posting just seven goals and 14 points. Spezza’s game went down as well, going from 50 points in 2016-17 to 26 points last year, while Hanzal struggled with injuries all season.

This year, the team has hopes that they can get a solid return from 23-year-old Valeri Nichushkin, who played the last two years in the KHL, and now returns. They still hope Spezza can bounce back, while the team has high hopes that Mattias Janmark, Faksa, Tyler Pitlick and Comeau can increase that scoring. Whether that will happen is questionable as Nichushkin put up very pedestrian numbers in the KHL while he was away, so assuming he posts big numbers seems unlikely, while the 35-year-old Spezza will have to prove that the game hasn’t passed him by.

Overall Outlook: While the goaltending seems to be more solidified as the team replaced backup Kari Lehtonen with Khudobin, who should be a better stopgap if starter Ben Bishop goes down with another inconvenient injury and a much stronger defense with the addition of 19-year-old Miro Heiskanen and a more confident Julius Honka, the team has a solid defense behind him. Add in a new coach in Jim Montgomery, the team has a lot of promise, but where that offense will come from is a question that the team will have to prove if they have any chance in competing in a very competitive Central Division.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Dallas Stars Will Not Buy Out Jason Spezza

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After a disappointing season there has been plenty of speculation about how the Dallas Stars will go about changing their roster for next year, but one veteran name won’t be cast aside so quickly. Chris Johnston of Sportsnet reports that though his name had been mentioned repeatedly, Jason Spezza will not be bought out by the team and instead play out the final year of his contract. The buyout window opened today, and with Spezza’s $7.5MM cap hit many had speculated about him as a possibility.

Unfortunately, Spezza wasn’t able to maintain his career production this season. Seeing his minutes slashed considerably, he recorded only eight goals and 26 points in 78 games, easily the worst full season of his career. Up until this point Spezza had been one of the most consistent offensive players in the league, registering at least 50 points in 12 straight seasons (not counting the lockout-shortened year in which he played just five games), and at least 20 goals in nine of those. Once a 90-point player in his prime with the Ottawa Senators, he was limited to fourth line duty for much of the 2017-18 campaign.

At 35 a full rebound for Spezza is unlikely. There is probably not a 50-point player still around, as he heads into the twilight of his career. That said, there is some cause for optimism. Facing weaker competition, Spezza’s possession numbers were actually a positive this season and his career-low 5.8% shooting percentage is bound to improve next year. A career 13.0% shooter, anything even approaching that would have resulted in a much better season. Though that can’t be counted on, excitement with a new coaching staff under Jim Montgomery and Todd Nelson should give Spezza every opportunity to at least be an important part of the team.

The decision to not buy out his contract makes sense, even without a bounce-back season. Though the team would experience a $5MM cap reduction this season, it would keep $2.5MM on their books for the 2019-20 season when they need every dollar they can save to re-sign Tyler Seguin. Just as John Tavares is commanding a near $100MM contract this summer, the Stars could be in a similar situation with Seguin if they can’t get a deal done with him this time around. He’s eligible for an extension as of July 1st, but using any cap space on a Spezza buyout would only weaken the Stars position.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Poll: Who Is The Most Likely To Be Bought Out?

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The NHL buyout period opens later this month, and teams will have to make tough decisions on some of their overpaid former-stars. Rory Boylen of Sportsnet has been all over potential buyout candidates throughout the season, and has now released his list of the top eight names that could see a paycheck start coming to not play for their current teams.

Last year we saw Simon Despres, Matt Greene, Antti Niemi, Benoit Pouliot, Jussi Jokinen, Lance Bouma, Ryan Murphy, Jimmy Hayes, Mark Stuart, Mike Cammalleri, and Devante Smith-Pelly bought out in the first window, and a similar number of players could find themselves on unconditional waivers this time around.

We’ve already heard about Matt Moulson’s expected buy out from the Buffalo Sabres, but Boylen throws eight different names into the mix. Several of them were once key parts of their franchise, while others never turned into the player they were expected to become.

Who do you think is the most likely player to be bought out when the window opens on the later of 48 hours after the Stanley Cup Final, or June 15th. Cast your vote below and make sure to leave an explanation in the comment section. For more information on how much each team would have to pay, check out Boylen’s excellent breakdown or head over to CapFriendly’s handy calculator.

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Stars Must Make A Decision On Jason Spezza Soon

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The Dallas Stars offseason has already been underway for quite some time, but now with a head coach settled in, the team will have some tough decisions ahead of them. One question general manager Jim Nill and head coach Jim Montgomery must make is what to do with declining veteran Jason Spezza.

After signing a four-year, $30MM deal four years ago, the soon-to-be 35 year old is coming off a disappointing 2017-18 season. After scoring 33 goals in the first year of that deal, the veteran’s numbers have dropped as he scored 15 goals in 2016-17 and followed that up with just eight goals last year under former head coach Ken Hitchcock, while he averaged just 13:00 ATOI, his lowest time on the ice since his rookie season.

The Athletic’s Sean Shapiro (subscription required) writes that the duo of Nill and Montgomery will are expected to discuss and come to a decision whether Spezza can fit into Montgomery’s system by the end of May. With one year remaining at $7.5MM AAV, there are a lot of options regarding Spezza. The team could keep him and hope he can produce on a bottom-six line. The team could also buy him out, saving $5MM in cap space for 2018-19, but would require the team to extend his cap hit of $2.5MM for 2019-20. The team could also try and trade his expiring deal to a team with existing cap space and take back a longer-termed player, who might be able to produce better than Spezza. Of course, Spezza does have a 10-team no-trade clause.

Shapiro also breaks down the veteran’s decline and is quick to point out that Spezza’s numbers were already going down before Hitchcock arrived in Dallas, so you can’t expect Spezza to return to form under Montgomery. However even with the lack of quality linemates among the bottom-six, Shapiro points out that Spezza has lost the ability to create his own scoring opportunities as he’s become a forward who attempts to position himself in front of the net in hopes to re-direct shots or catch a quick rebound. On top of that, Spezza’s defense hasn’t gotten any better, which was never a strength of his in the first place.

In the end, the decision will come down to how Nill and Montgomery view Spezza’s value. If you try not to think about the $7.5MM he is owed, he might fit well into a bottom-six role. The one nice thing about Spezza’s contract is that it should expire when the Stars need to open up cap space for Tyler Seguin’s new contract.

 

Snapshots: Hunwick, Pitlick, Stars

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Matt Hunwick’s first season in Pittsburgh did not go according to plan. After signing a three-year, $6.75MM contract with the Penguins at the opening of free agency, the expectations were that Hunwick would be a capable everyday defenseman. Yet, by the trade deadline Hunwick had missed 18 games due to injury and a few more due to healthy scratches and had just five points on the year to show for the games he did play in. Less than a year in to a three-year pact, GM Jim Rutherford was searching for a way to move his contract. When he couldn’t, Hunwick ended up watching 26 of the Penguins final 29 regular season games and each game of the postseason from the press box. These disappointing results are not lost on Hunwick though; the veteran defenseman was honest in his self-criticism when speaking to the gathered media yesterday, reports The Athletic’s Seth Rorabaugh. Hunwick did attribute some of the blame for his poor play to injury and a Penguins system that was difficult to adjust to, but largely took responsibility for the campaign by admitting his lack of a mental edge. “I don’t think I played with enough confidence throughout the season…Maybe (confidence was) part of the reason (for struggling)”, Hunwick said, adding ““I’d hope to play a lot better (next season). I’d like to be more assertive and be more confident right out of the gate. Now knowing the system and the guys, I think that should happen.” Maybe that will happen for Hunwick, but that is assuming he remains in Pittsburgh to begin next season. Rutherford still faces the pressure of the salary cap crunch and an overpaid depth defenseman is an ideal target to move out, if possible. Hunwick has proven to be a capable player over his career and he very likely would improve in year two with the Penguins, but he may not be afforded the opportunity after a rough start this year.

  • On the other end of the spectrum is Dallas Stars forward Tyler Pitlick. In grading out the roster after a frustrating end to the season – a late-season collapse that cost the team a playoff spot – Sportsday’s Joshua Friemel calls Pitlick a highlight of an otherwise disappointing season. In fact, Friemel states that Pitlick may have even been a better off-season addition than big-name acquisitions Ben Bishop, Marc Methot, or Martin Hanzal. The Stars spent right up to the cap in 2017-18, but paid Pitlick only $1MM and got 80 games and 27 points back in return. Friemel points out that his 14 goals were good enough for sixth on the team and they were also more than Jason Spezza and Antoine Roussel combined, who together made $9.5MM. Pitlick also contributed on the penalty kill and was one of the Stars’ more physical and effective two-way players. Better yet, Pitlick still has two years remaining on his deal at that same bargain rate. The underutilized Edmonton Oilers prospect may have been little more than a waiver when he signed in Dallas and may have flown under the radar this season, but going forward his value will no longer go unnoticed.
  • Staying in Dallas, Stars owner Tom Gaglardi made the rare cross-organization reassignment today. The Kamloops Blazers, the WHL team that Gaglardi shares ownership in, today announced several front office changes, including the assignment of GM Stu MacGregor to the Stars organization, as Gaglardi also owns both Dallas and AHL Texas. The Athletic’s Sean Shapiro clarifies that MacGregor has been transferred to the Stars’ amateur scouting department, where his experience with junior hockey can be put toward a different purpose. With the Blazers finishing with the fifth-worst record in the league this season, changes were expected, but it’s a shrewd move by Gaglardi to replace his GM for one team without losing an asset by instead strengthening his other team.

Poll: Which Open Coaching Job Is Best?

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It was an uncommon year in the NHL with no coaches being fired in-season. Some of the worst teams in the NHL – the Buffalo Sabres, Arizona Coyotes, and Vancouver Canucks – had coaches in their first seasons and were willing to reserve judgement at least into a second season. Others, like the Ottawa Senators (confirmed today), Montreal Canadiens, and New York Islanders are willing to wait and see with relatively new staffs.

Entering the first full month without regular season activity, the season is over for all but eight teams. Yet, only two coaches have been fired: the New York Rangers’ Alain Vigneault and the Calgary Flames’ Glen Gulutzan. The Dallas Stars’ Ken Hitchcock retired and the Carolina Hurricanes’ Bill Peters opted out. Peters then quickly took the Flames job and what is left are just three coaching openings in the NHL.

The Carolina Hurricanes, under new ownership, are still looking for a GM and likely will wait to make a decision on a head coach until after that initial decision has been made. However, for those free agent coaches, the ’Canes do offer an attractive mix of long-term depth and talent on defense, youth and skill on offense, a solid prospect pipeline, and mass amounts of cap space to get better. However, Carolina lacks two of the hardest things to find in hockey: a legitimate starting goaltender and a bona fide #1 star center. Any coach who is excited about the team’s potential has to look at Peters’ inability to turn it into wins and wonder if the few pieces missing in Carolina are the most important ones.

It took a late season collapse for the Dallas Stars to miss the postseason this year. The team has three superstars in Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, and John Klingberg and a handful of very good players behind them like goalie Ben Bishop, defensemen Marc Methot and Esa Lindell, and forwards Alexander Radulov and Radek Faksa. They also have the potential for a quick turnaround if Jason Spezza and Martin Hanzal can bounce back. Beyond that group though, the team is lacking in depth on the roster and there doesn’t appear to be real game-changing talent in the pipeline either outside of Miro Heiskanen. They’re also right at the top of the salary cap limit. The Stars have the appearance of a team that is close to being a contender, but may not be able to get much better than they already are.

The New York Rangers are this year’s rebuild option for a coaching candidate. After trading away both impending free agents and core players at the deadline, the Rangers are left with a young-top nine that bring energy and skill but lacks experience and top-end talent and defense corps with veteran leadership surrounded by youth and potential but also lacking any high-end ability. However, they still have an all-world goalie in Henrik Lundqvist and are now loaded with prospects at every position and a wealth of draft picks. The Rangers may not look like much now but have a lot to offer down the road.

So, if you were a top head coach candidate with no particular style preference, which team would you choose?

Poll: What Should The Stars Do With Jason Spezza?

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To say that the 2017-18 season didn’t go well for the Dallas Stars would be an understatement.  Buoyed by a deep attack and the addition of Ben Bishop between the pipes, they were a trendy pick to have a long postseason run but instead, they’re on the outside looking in at the playoffs and on the market for a new head coach for the second straight year.

Leading the list of underachievers was center Jason Spezza.  He was expected to lead their second line, even with the addition of Martin Hanzal (who spent more than half the season on injured reserve due to a litany of injuries).  They had even tinkered with the idea of having him spend some time on the wing to ensure he’d still see lots of ice time in scoring situations.

Suffice it to say, none of that turned out as planned.  He posted just 26 points (8-18-26) in 78 games; his 0.33 points per game average was by far the lowest of his career.  Accordingly, his ice time also plummeted by more than three minutes per game to just 13:00.  The only time he averaged less than that was his rookie campaign back in 2002-03.  In other words, not a whole lot went well for him.

Spezza will be entering the final year of his contract next season but he carries a hefty price tag at $7.5MM in both cap hit and salary.  They certainly didn’t receive good value on that deal this year and as a result, he is an early speculative candidate for a buyout in June.  Doing so would cost them $2.5MM against the salary cap for the next two years.

If that was to happen, Dallas would free up an additional $5MM in cap space to work with this offseason and with the team having over $57MM committed to just 13 players for next year per CapFriendly (a total that includes Spezza), they could certainly use the extra flexibility.  However, that extra $2.5MM on the books for 2019-20 may make things a bit trickier as they try to get a new deal in place for top center Tyler Seguin who is eligible for unrestricted free agency following the 2018-19 campaign.

Of course, this isn’t the only option for the Stars.  They could opt to keep Spezza in the fold and hope that 2017-18 was an outlier and with a new coach behind the bench, maybe he reverts to his form from recent seasons.  Regardless of how much he struggled, his body of work over 15 years in the NHL suggests that he is certainly capable of playing better next season.

Alternatively, they could look to trade Spezza and retain on the contract.  They would be able to hold back up to 50% ($3.75MM) and while that would lessen their potential savings next year on a buyout, there wouldn’t be any carryover to 2019-20 either.  If Dallas looks to go that route, it’s worth noting that Spezza has a ten-team no-trade list.

Which route is the best for the Stars to take when it comes to Spezza?  Should they keep him and let him play out his deal, try to trade him with some retention on his contract, or buy him out in the summer?  Have your say by voting in the poll below.

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Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Dallas Notes: Seguin, Nichushkin, Heiskanen, Spezza, Lehtonen

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With the Dallas Stars season coming to an end today, the Athletic’s Sean Shapiro (subscription required) spoke with Dallas general manager Jim Nill in a Q&A about the team’s disappointing season which resulted in a second-straight season in the lottery (three out of five, if anyone is asking), despite the team’s offseason efforts to compete for a Stanley Cup immediately.

Nill says while the team is still trying to figure out what went wrong, the team’s top priority is to focus on re-signing center Tyler Seguin, who is coming off a career-high 40 goals this season. He has one year remaining at just $5.75MM and can sign an extension on July 1. The question no one is certain of is what does Seguin want? Regardless, the team intends to stick with Seguin whether or not he signs an extension on July 1st.

“I know some people are worried, but he’s got a year left and I anticipate he’s going to come in and play well and get going,” Nill said. “I hope to have him signed before that year starts, but if it doesn’t we’ll go through that process. There are some things that are an advantage, we can offer eight years compared to seven, so there are a lot of factors that come into play.”

  • In the same mailbag, Nill said that he believes that 2013 first-rounder Valeri Nichushkin will be back in Dallas next season. The former 10th-overall pick played three seasons in Dallas, but struggled at times and opted to return to CSKA Moscow of the KHL for the past two years. With two more years of experience, the 23-year-old could make big contributions to the team next year if they can bring him back, according to Nill.
  • Nill also said, in Shapiro’s column, that he believes that 2017 first-round pick Miro Heiskanen looks ready to contribute to the team and is likely to come over next year. “I watched him closely in the Olympics, we’ve had scouts over there watching him,” Nill said. “He’s right there. He’s ready to come over. There will be a little transition time, living in a different country and stuff, but he’s very close.” The fourth-overall pick could change the state of their defense quickly if he’s as good as advertised. The 18-year-old has put up improved numbers in his second year playing in Finland’s top league, as he 11 goals and 12 assists in 30 games this year.
  • Mike Heika of SportsDay writes due to the contracts they have acquired over the past year, the team is all in on trying to win a Stanley Cup soon and will be forced to reload as opposed to rebuild their team. The scribe believes that the Stars should look to trade veteran forward Jason Spezza, who will have one more year at $7.5MM and retain half his salary. Spezza struggled this year under head coach Ken Hitchcock, scoring just eight goals this year, his lowest number since his rookie season. Heika believes that with another coach on another team, Spezza could still be a productive second or third-line center and at $3.75MM, there could be a lot of takers.
  • Heika, in the same column, writes that Stars’ fans have likely seen the last of backup goaltender Kari Lehtonen. The scribe believes that with starter Ben Bishop always dealing with minor injury issues, the team needs a backup who is capable of controlling a game. Lehtonen, who is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, has not been that guy. He put up decent numbers this year with a 2.58 GAA and a .911 save percentage, but Heika believes the team needs a young goalie with more potential.

West Notes: Fox, Klefbom, Toews, Stars

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While the Bruins convinced Ryan Donato to leave Harvard and turn pro on the weekend, the Flames will not be able to do the same with defenseman Adam Fox.  Postmedia’s Wes Gilbertson reports (Twitter link) that the 20-year-old defender will remain at the NCAA level for his junior campaign, saying that “For right now, just staying and focusing on school and hockey, that’s my focus”.   Fox was Calgary’s third-round pick (66th overall) back in the 2016 draft and posted 28 points (6-22-28) in 29 games this season.

More from the West:

  • After playing through a shoulder injury for a while now, the Oilers have shut down defenseman Oscar Klefbom for the rest of the season and announced (Twitter link) that he has undergone successful surgery. He will be cleared to resume workouts in the next five to six weeks.  This caps what has been a particularly rough season for the 24-year-old as Klefbom recorded just five goals and 21 points in 66 games, well below his output of a dozen tallies and 38 points in 2016-17.
  • The Blackhawks will be without center Jonathan Toews for the next few games due to an upper-body injury, head coach Joel Quenneville told reporters, including Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun-Times. The injury was sustained on Tuesday against Colorado although the captain was on the ice late in the contest.  He will be re-evaluated next week.
  • If the Stars are going to work their way back into the playoff picture, they will have to do so without the services of center Jason Spezza. Mark Stepneski of Stars Inside Edge notes (Twitter link) that the veteran is dealing with a back injury and will be re-evaluated in two weeks, effectively all but ending his regular season.  They could get some good news from the infirmary, however.  Stepneski adds that blueliner Marc Methot participated in a full practice today and could get the green light to return for Friday’s game against Boston after missing more than a week due to a hand laceration.

The Odds Of Drafting A Superstar And The 2018 NHL Draft

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Earlier this week, The Athletic’s Tyler Dellow went to work trying to figure out how the Ottawa Senators could maximize their trade return (subscription required) for Erik Karlsson, should the team decide to move the all-world defenseman prior to the NHL Trade Deadline on February 26th or at least before the 2018 NHL Entry Draft on June 22nd. Dellow surmised that in order to get anywhere near a fair return for Karlsson, Ottawa would need to acquire draft picks that could give them the best chance of finding a “franchise cornerstone” to replace him. The best-case-scenario for the Sens would obviously be to land the #1 overall pick in the lottery and the opportunity to draft the consensus top pick, Karlsson clone Rasmus Dahlin – a scenario that would not even require moving Karlsson. However, with the Arizona Coyotes and Buffalo Sabres likely having better lottery odds and another 12 teams having a chance at the top pick as well, its unlikely that the Senators choose first overall. Dahlin’s generational talent also means the lucky team that lands #1 isn’t moving it, even for Karlsson. So what then is the chance of finding a superstar in the draft? Dellow’s analysis produced these results:

  • First pick: 90 percent,
  • Second pick: 60 percent
  • Third or Fourth pick: 15 percent
  • Picks 5-20: 5 percent
  • Picks 21-30: 2 percent
  • Picks 31-60: 1 percent
  • Picks 61+:  .07 percent

While there is a considerable drop-off from the first pick to the second and the second to the third, it’s clear that picks #2 and #3 still hold immense value. Dellow goes on to describe the infrequency with which those picks are moved, citing Alexei Yashin-for-Jason Spezza and the drafting of Henrik and Daniel Sedin are rare recent examples. Dellow’s thesis continues that the current Vancouver Canucks could be a rare team willing to part with a high pick, if it meant landing Karlsson.

However what if Karlsson isn’t traded by the Draft – a situation that is far more likely than the media would make it out to be – would the normally untouchable top three picks be back off the table? Obviously, the results of the draft lottery matter immensely and the #1 pick will surely not be moved this year. More likely than not, #2 is going nowhere as well. Yet, the status of the 2018 draft class leads to much intrigue over the #3 pick, which historically has a 15% chance of landing a superstar. Unlike past years, there is no consensus second-best player in 2018. In some order, Nico Hischier and Nolan Patrick were going 1-2 in 2017, as were Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine in 2016, and no one was going right behind Connor McDavid other than Jack Eichel in 2015. This year’s crop offers a situation unlike the last few seasons, wherein Dahlin is guaranteed to go first overall – and will be off the draft board of everyone but the lottery winner before the draft even begins – but the following picks are unpredictable. At #2, it could be Russian sniper Andrei Svechnikov, sleek Czech forward Filip Zadina, big, skilled Americans Brady Tkachuk or Oliver Wahlstrom, or a D-needy team with the second pick could even go off the board for a defenseman.

The decision on the second overall pick in 2018 will undeniably result in the top player on many teams’ board being selected, but the top player on many other teams’ board falling to #3. If that team at third overall was hoping to take the player selected at #2, now things could get interesting. According to Dellow’s results, the team at #3 has now lost a 45% chance of finding their next franchise player, but could trade out of the pick and still end up with one (or more) top 20 pick(s), each with a 5% chance of becoming a star, as well as possibly an established pick or player. If you put trust into a model like Dellow’s, a deal like this becomes much more about math and odds than simply taking the risk of trading back out of disappointment with the draft order.

Going back to the Karlsson-to-Vancouver hypothetical, imagine that the Canucks land the #3 overall pick while the Senators have a pick in the 5-20 range, either by the lottery or an additional pick from an upcoming trade. Vancouver hypothetically wanted Zadina, who went #2, while the top player on Ottawa’s board was Tkachuk (or maybe a defenseman like Adam Boqvist). Vancouver could, as Dellow proposes, offer the Sens the third pick – and a 15% chance at a star – and a prospect like Olli Juolevi, the fifth overall pick in 2016 – who holds a 5% chance of becoming a star himself – as part of a larger package for Karlsson and a first. Ottawa nets a 20% chance of adding a cornerstone player, including at least one potential replacement on the blue line, and Vancouver holds onto a 5% chance of finding a star of their own with the later first rounder. The 10% loss for Vancouver is more than made up by the gain of a bona fide star in Karlsson. Could a deal like this happen? For sure. Will it? Probably not, but Dellow’s analysis of draft pick values and a seemingly volatile draft board in 2018 helps to illuminate the possibilities of some fascinating, unprecedented deals early on at the 2018 Draft.

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