2018 Midseason UFA Power Rankings: 1-10
With the halfway point of the season now behind us and the trade deadline fast approaching, it’s time to take a preliminary look at the UFA Class of 2018. Here is the first half of our top-20 rankings, based on votes from writers Gavin Lee, Brian La Rose, Nate Brown, Zach Leach and Holger Stolzenberg. We ran numbers 11-20 yesterday, and will release an honorable mention group tomorrow.
1. John Tavares, C, New York Islanders — There was never any doubt that Tavares would hold the top spot on this list, and he was ranked #1 on all five ballots. The superstar Islanders center will only be 27 on July 1st, and could challenge Connor McDavid for the largest cap hit in the league if a bidding war starts over his services. Even with all of his career success, Tavares may have not experienced a season quite like this one, as he is currently tied for second in league scoring with 54 points in 46 games. There is very little negative that can be said about him, and teams could legitimately change their franchise direction by landing the biggest fish on the market.
2. John Carlson, D, Washington Capitals — Though it’s a steep drop off after Tavares, Carlson is an elite free agent in his own right. It’s rare that a defender of his caliber hits the open market, and the fact that he only just turned 28 makes him a target for 31 teams in the NHL. Logging more than 26 minutes a night this season on a depleted Washington blueline, Carlson trails only John Klingberg in terms of scoring from defensemen with 35 points through 45 games. Though it’ll be a tough case to make at the end of the season, Carlson should get some Norris consideration and could land a huge long-term contract.
3. Evander Kane, F, Buffalo Sabres — Everyone’s favorite trade rumor is headed to free agency after the season, as the Sabres haven’t even approached him to discuss an extension. Unless he’s so enamored with his next team and signs a contract right away, he should be able to pick a landing spot from a dozen or more suitors in the offseason. How many years teams will offer him has been disputed at times, but at just 26 he’s one of the youngest free agents to hit the market and should provide several years of prime performance.
4. James van Riemsdyk, F, Toronto Maple Leafs — van Riemsdyk doesn’t carry the puck a ton, and doesn’t often score from far out, but might be the most dangerous scorer in the league within five feet of the net. He’s well on his way to another 30 goal season this year, even while playing the fewest average minutes since he was 21. Expected to ask for something around $36MM over six years, there will be no shortage of teams looking to add him to their powerplay.
5. James Neal, F, Vegas Golden Knights — Before this season, free agency or even the expansion draft, we looked at Neal’s incomparable consistency and how he was headed for a big contract on the open market. He’s never recorded fewer than 21 goals in a season, and already has 18 this year. Obviously a huge part of what the Vegas Golden Knights have done to start their franchise history, they’ll try to retain him on a reasonable deal. If they can’t, he might just end up scoring 20 for his fifth organization in 2018-19.
6. Josh Bailey, F, New York Islanders — It’s not just Tavares that the Islanders have to worry about leaving this summer, but Bailey (and de Haan below) too. He and Anders Lee have formed the perfect wing pair for Tavares this season, and Bailey is going to blow his career-high in points—set only last season—out of the water just at the right time. He’s 28, has 50 points in 42 games and is a lethal powerplay setup man. Who doesn’t want to add that on the open market?
7. Mikael Backlund, C, Calgary Flames — Maybe underrated because of his personality and lack of flash on the ice, Backlund is nevertheless one of the most valuable assets available this summer. Soon to be 29, he’s coming off back-to-back 20-goal seasons and is a legitimate long-term center option. Centers with 50-point upside and responsible defensive ability don’t hit the market that often, and Backlund should be able to cash in because of it.
8. Paul Stastny, C, St. Louis Blues — Speaking of centers, Stastny is in good position to cash in on one last multi-year contract. The 32-year old is still logging big minutes for the St. Louis Blues, and though he may not be the 70-point man of his youth is still an effective weapon at both ends of the rink. A decline is coming, but with 33 points through 47 games this season including 20 even-strength assists, he will still be able to command an audience on the first day of free agency.
9. Calvin de Haan, D, New York Islanders — That’s right, the third Islanders player in the top 10 is de Haan, who has steadily developed into an excellent all-around defenseman. While he doesn’t have the offensive upside of Carlson, his youth—he’ll turn 27 in May—and ability to plug into a top-4 will still have teams knocking down his door. Our writers had him placed everywhere from #7 to #16, but no one disagrees he’ll have plenty of options on the open market.
10. Mike Green, D, Detroit Red Wings — There was a time, nearly a decade ago, when Green was the shining example of an offensive defenseman. Two years in a row, starting in 2009, he finished second in Norris voting behind a more well-rounded player—first to Duncan Keith, then Zdeno Chara—despite point totals in the seventies. In 2008-09 he even recorded 31 goals, the highest total from a defenseman since Kevin Hatcher in 1992-93, and unmatched in the years since. At 32 years old he won’t be putting up 70 point seasons anymore, but is still an excellent puck mover and can quarterback a powerplay. He’ll likely be one of the stars of the trade deadline and free agent day.
No Extension Discussed With Evander Kane
While all eyes are on the Buffalo Sabres as they hold court over the trade deadline, Mike Harrington of the Buffalo News reports something fans are loath to hear: Evander Kane has never been approached to negotiate a contract extension. Instead, he will almost certainly be traded before the deadline for whatever price GM Jason Botterill can get.
Kane, 26, was acquired by the Sabres along with Zach Bogosian in February of 2015 as part of a huge deal that sent Tyler Myers, Drew Stafford and a package of prospects and draft picks back to the Winnipeg Jets. He was a former-30 goal scorer that had hit a rough patch in Winnipeg but could help lead the Sabres back to the playoffs. After all, Kane was the fourth-overall pick in 2009 and possessed a sky-high ceiling in terms of talent.
Though he never did turn into that superstar offensive talent, able to carry a squad on his back, he has been excellent for the team. Since 2015-16, his first year in Buffalo, he ranks 26th in the league in goals-per-game and is on his way to another big season with 16 in his first 44 contests. Those come along with physical play, good possession statistics and an ability to log huge amounts of ice time, and paint a portrait of an excellent NHL player.
Still, off-ice incidents have haunted Kane. As Harrington points out, ownership in Buffalo was appalled when he was arrested for harassment in 2016, and his name has been in the news time and again for incidents on social media. While that has all seemed to tone down recently, as Kane plays through what looks to be his final season in Buffalo, there was a recent eruption at practice involving Justin Falk. Everyone involved played down the incident, explaining it was just competitive spirit, but impressions persist.
The Sabres have been reported to be looking for as many as four pieces for Kane on the trade market, though Darren Dreger of TSN partially reeled in expectations by explaining that some teams may not be willing to pay that much. Whatever they do get, it does seem like Kane’s Buffalo tenure only has a few weeks left at most.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Asking Price On Evander Kane Even Higher
Last we heard, the Buffalo Sabres were looking for a first-round pick, prospect and conditional draft pick for Evander Kane. Despite his excellent goal-scoring talent, that package wasn’t seen as a fair return by everyone and some believed it might have to come down before the trade deadline. Instead, it seems like it is actually increasing. Darren Dreger was on TSN radio today and revised his previous reporting, saying now that the Sabres are looking for a roster player in addition to the three previously listed assets.
Dreger goes on to speculate about the temptation the Toronto Maple Leafs will feel to move James van Riemsdyk if the Sabres succeed in getting that massive package for Kane, and that temptation wouldn’t be limited to them. The Vegas Golden Knights and New York Islanders might both have to consider moving out their own pending unrestricted free agents—James Neal, David Perron and Josh Bailey among them—if the market gets desperate enough to hand over such important assets.
Still, there are likely some who believe that Kane can be a sort of final puzzle piece to a championship roster. With 36 points in 44 games he’s on pace for the highest total of his career, and is a potential 30-goal man again this season. Slotting that kind of production into a lineup would certainly make the acquiring team that much more formidable down the stretch.
Looking to last season, two high profile rentals were traded at the deadline. Kevin Shattenkirk (with Pheonix Copley) from the St. Louis Blues netted a first-round pick, Zachary Sanford, Brad Malone and conditional picks (which never materialized). Martin Hanzal (with Ryan White and fourth-round pick) cost Minnesota three draft picks including a first-rounder and a minor league forward.
Perhaps more recently is the example of Matt Duchene, who scored the Colorado Avalanche a roster player, two prospects and several picks, though Duchene came with an extra year of control and needed three teams to figure out the deal.
Kane’s case isn’t exactly like any of those three, as he’s an in-his-prime winger that’s capable of contributing in several different ways. But it seems unlikely that the added roster player would be anyone of significance, unless they find a desperate GM around the league. There should be plenty of available scoring threats, and some like Max Pacioretty or Mike Hoffman that come with additional control.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Pacific Notes: Vancouver’s Defense, Kane, Muzzin, Sekera
The Vancouver Canucks have been hurting for offense for quite some time. Yet despite adding veteran Thomas Vanek and rookie sensation Brock Boeser to the team’s lineup, the team is ranked 27th in the league in scoring. The Vancouver Sun’s Jason Botchford writes that the main reason is due to the defense’s inability to move the puck forward and help create offense.
Vancouver lacks a true offensive defenseman as the team seems to have little, but defensive blueliners in their rotations. The team’s top offensive defenseman is offseason acquisition Michael Del Zotto, who has 12 points this year, but Botchford says that the 27-year-old has rarely been the answer this season. The teams had hoped that third-year defenseman Ben Hutton might improve on his rookie year’s 25 points. Yet he has no goals and just six assists so far this year. Alexander Edler also has failed to improve on his offense as well.
Botchford says the team does have one possibility in AHL’s Philip Holm, who has seven goals and 19 points in 30 games this year in Utica. However, the team has not used him this year despite their need for an offensive spark. The team has a logjam of defenders and a trade deadline deal to move out Erik Gudbranson might be the best thing for the Canucks as it would allow the team to start playing the 26-year-old Holm.
- The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz (subscription required) writes that while he believes that San Jose Sharks might be interested in acquiring Buffalo Sabres forward Evander Kane at the trade deadline, there are definitely some issues with doing that. While Kane would provide the Sharks an immediate top scorer (his 35 points would make him San Jose’s top point-getter) which could offer the Sharks the depth needed to field three solid lines, there are other factors San Jose would have to consider before making a trade. The current asking price by Buffalo is a first-rounder, a top prospect and a conditional pick. The team lacks resources as they attempt to retool their franchise, so moving those three assets would be tough to do. On top of that, the team would have to have confidence to re-sign Kane to a long-term deal and would they want to do that. He has a history of concerning incidents in his past, including a recent scuffle with teammate Justin Falk. Would the team want to sign him to a seven or eight year deal?
- Los Angeles Kings defenseman Jake Muzzin is listed as doubtful, according to Fox Sports’ Jon Rosen. Muzzin, who had played in a consecutive 281 games, broke that streak last Saturday when he missed a game against Nashville with an undisclosed injury. He is not expected to play tonight against the Ducks, but is making progress.
- Bruce McCurdy of the Edmonton Journal grades the performances of all the Oilers after Friday’s victory over Arizona and points out the defenseman Andrej Sekera has improved every game he’s played since returning and is already looking more as himself since returning from a torn ACL.
Morning Notes: Trade Bait, Golden Knights, Hurricanes
TSN’s Frank Seravalli released his updated “trade bait” board, and the name at the top once again is Buffalo’s Evander Kane. Kane was recently involved in a minor altercation at Sabres practice, and has a reported price tag of a first-round pick, prospect and conditional draft pick based on him re-signing with the acquiring team. Though Kane’s deal seems inevitable at this point, several other names on the list are interesting.
Ottawa’s Mike Hoffman appears fourth on the list, and fellow TSN insider Bob McKenzie believes a deal of the scoring forward is “more likely than not” at this point. Seravalli maintains that even though the Vegas Golden Knights are winning, James Neal remains a possible trade candidate, while Patrick Maroon seems like an easy rental piece after the Edmonton Oilers’ struggles this year.
- The US Army has filed a notice of opposition against the Golden Knights trademark, according to Chris Creamer of Sportslogos.net. Creamer has been all over this story since the beginning, noting that both the Army and the College of Saint Rose who each use the Golden Knights name, had filed extensions when the first trademark opposition deadline came about. Alex Prewitt of Sports Illustrated gives us the Vegas hockey team’s response, in which they “strongly dispute” the idea that there is any confusion between the army parachute team and the NHL club.
- The sale of a majority stake in the Carolina Hurricanes to new owner Thomas Dundon will close today according to Luke DeCock and Chip Alexander of the Raleigh News & Observer. Dundon will be purchasing just over 51% of the club, with an option to buy the rest after three years from now-minority owner Peter Karmanos. While it’s not clear how exactly the deal will impact the team on the ice, it should provide some extra stability to the executive level.
Morning Notes: Buffalo, Prospects, Offside
After another disappointing loss at the hands of the Winnipeg Jets last night, the Buffalo Sabres were back on the ice today trying to right the ship. Unfortunately, things didn’t go so smoothly. According to Amy Moritz of the Buffalo News, Zach Bogosian was helped off the ice unable to put weight on his left leg.
Not only that, but tempers appear to be flaring as according to Bill Hoppe of Buffalo Hockey Beat, Evander Kane and Justin Falk got into a shoving match with the latter calling the former “selfish.” Things haven’t gone according to plan for the Sabres this year, who are now in the midst of a five-game losing streak and just three points ahead of the Arizona Coyotes for last place in the NHL.
- ISS Hockey and Jeff Marek of Sportsnet each released their new draft rankings today, with both agreeing that Rasmus Dahlin has solidified his position as the no-doubt first-overall pick in June’s draft. After that though, the lists diverge with Marek leaving Andrei Svechnikov in the second spot while ISS has moved Brady Tkachuk into that position. The remaining top 10 is a mixed bag, and should make for an incredibly interesting draft day with teams having very different boards.
- While the entire league is wondering whether the current offside review process will stay the same after another “skate blade incident” for the Edmonton Oilers last night, Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reports that NHL Director of Hockey Operations Colin Campbell will bring up the issue once again at the GM meetings in March. There is a growing belief that the rule should be changed to that of a endzone-type plane that extends straight up, so that a player’s skate doesn’t necessarily need to be touching the ice to be onside.
Asking Price For Evander Kane Revealed
We’ve heard speculation and rumor on the Buffalo Sabres’ asking price for Evander Kane in trade, but now Pierre LeBrun definitively reports on TSN’s Insider Trading that the team is looking for a first-round pick, prospect and a conditional pick based on whether Kane re-signs with the acquiring team. Of course, this is the value of Kane “if the Sabres have their way” as LeBrun puts it, not necessarily what they’ll actually receive for the talented winger when (and if) they eventually do move him.
There will surely be several teams eventually willing to meet that price for the 26-year old, especially ones that are certain to make the playoffs and won’t be risking a potential lottery pick. Teams that want an extra push for the postseason could do worse than a power forward well on his way to another 30-goal season.
Kane is a lightning rod for criticism thanks to his previous off-ice incidents, but has flown relatively under the radar this season in terms of questionable comments or actions. Though any acquiring team wouldn’t be able to completely discount his past, there has been interest from around the league for some time. LeBrun believes that some teams that could be willing to meet that price haven’t completely decided whether they’ll buy or sell at the deadline yet, and will have to wait another few weeks.
For pure rentals this year, Kane seems like the top option on the market so far. Whether he’d be open to an extension with his acquiring team is unclear, but he also could head into the summer as the top free agent available. That would result in quite the haul financially, though other scoring wingers like James Neal and James van Riemsdyk could seem like more palatable moves for the more risk-averse clubs around the league should they also make it to free agency.
Eastern Notes: Sabres Breakdown, Aho, Giroux
Despite all the attention that had been given to the Buffalo Sabres’ new leadership of general manager Jason Botterill and new head coach Phil Housley at the start of the season, much of that fanfare is gone after the Sabres have reached the midway point with a disappointing 10-23-9 record. Their 29 points is the second worst record in the NHL with just the Arizona Coyotes struggling to do worse.
The Buffalo News’ John Vogl writes his mid-season assessment and writes that despite their disappointing play this season, there are some positives, including the play of young center Jack Eichel. While many had hopes that Eichel would be putting up similar numbers to that of Connor McDavid, that hasn’t happened. However, Vogl points out that his most recent play has set him up to have career highs in goals and points (30 goals and 70 points). He could easily have found himself on a different list after he had put up just eight goals in the team’s first 32 games, but has put up seven goals in his last nine games. Evander Kane‘s success is also a positive to look at, although he is likely to be traded at the deadline.
However, much of the team’s fault, Vogl writes, falls to center Sam Reinhart, who is really struggling this year. The 22-year-old is having his worst season ever, which is unacceptable for someone who was the team’s second-overall pick in 2014. He has seven goals and just six assists this year. Six of his 13 points have come on the power play, suggesting that he really disappears in 5-on-5 play. Kyle Okposo is another obvious player, who has underperformed. His numbers were acceptable a year ago, but Okposo was brought in to score goals and produce offense. Instead, Okposo has scored just six goals for 19 points and hasn’t looked like the player the team locked up to. Rasmus Ristolainen, Chad Johnson and Johan Larsson all received poor grades for their first half performance.
- NHL.com’s Michael Smith writes that after the Carolina Hurricanes consulted with doctors, they have listed winger Sebastian Aho as day-to-day with a lower-body injury after going down Saturday in a game against Boston. The 20-year-old Aho has been a key contributor for Carolina and has 13 goals and 20 assists, which would put him on pace for career-highs. They play next on Tuesday against the Tampa Bay Lightning.
- Philly.com’s Sam Carchidi writes that after a disappointing season a year ago, Philadelphia Flyers center Claude Giroux is proving to the league that he is an elite center in the NHL. The 29-year-old center was coming off a season in which he tallied 14 goals and 58 points — solid, but hardly great. Yet, it looks like Giroux has found his game again as he has dominated on offense this year. He has already equalled the 14 goals he had last year and is just seven points shy of tying his points total — at mid-year. Suddenly, Giroux is on pace for a career year. “I’m not surprised at anything G does,” coach Dave Hakstol said after Giroux’s three-point performance keyed Saturday afternoon’s 6-3 win over St. Louis at the Wells Fargo Center. “You guys know the hockey player and the person a little bit. But to know the person and know the competitiveness that burns inside of him, no, I’m not surprised.”
Buffalo Sabres Receiving Calls On Multiple Players
Though Evander Kane is clearly the one to watch—especially after yesterday’s report that the Pittsburgh Penguins were interested in him—the Buffalo Sabres have several players who could have different crests on their sweaters over the next few weeks. Craig Custance, in his Trade Deadline Primer for The Athletic, reports that the Sabres are also receiving interest in Benoit Pouliot, Johan Larsson and Jacob Josefson.
Pouliot has long been expected to make a big impact in the league, but after his latest disappointing season in Edmonton was bought out in the summer. Buffalo jumped on the chance to bring in the fourth-overall pick from 2005, and signed him to a one-year $1.15MM contract on July 1st. Pouliot has been better than last season, with 11 points in 39 games, but that’s not saying much. The 31-year old has been killing penalties for the Sabres, and still brings fine possession numbers, but there isn’t a lot to be excited about even with his relatively low salary.
Larsson and Josefson bring much of the same, just in younger bodies. With six and three points respectively, neither is going to change the offensive outlook of an acquiring team. What they can do, is give you responsible minutes on the fourth line and penalty kill, while providing some depth down the middle. Both can play center reasonably well, though neither are very good in the faceoff dot.
In all, every player not named Jack Eichel is likely available for the right price in Buffalo. The problem is there isn’t a lot of value in many of them, because of either poor performance, age or salary. Kane remains their big chip to make a splash at the deadline, but expect them to be very busy selling off smaller pieces over the next few weeks.
Penguins Show Interest In Evander Kane
With the two-time defending Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburgh Penguins on the outside looking in at a playoff spot, many expect them to be active in the weeks to come. On a radio appearance with Sportsnet 650 (audio link), Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman suggests that the Pens have shown some interest in Sabres pending UFA winger Evander Kane and that he wouldn’t be surprised if they inquire about Canadiens winger Max Pacioretty as well. He adds that on top of looking for help on the wing, they’re still trying to add depth down the middle as well despite picking up Riley Sheahan earlier in the year.
Kane has cooled down a little bit after a hot start to the season with just three goals over his last 18 games but he would still represent a significant boost to Pittsburgh’s top-six. He carries a cap hit of $5.25MM this season. As for Pacioretty, his struggles have been well-documented but many anticipate that a change of scenery and a top-flight center to play with could get back to 30-goal form. With Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin down the middle, Pittsburgh certainly would be able to give him that type of opportunity.
A challenge for Penguins GM Jim Rutherford here though will be working those types of moves on the salary cap. Right now, they can add a player making just over $357K in a full-season salary per CapFriendly, which means they really have next-to-no wiggle room at all. While Buffalo has indicated in the past they’d be willing to retain salary on Kane (they can hold back up to 50%), there’s no sign that Montreal would do on Pacioretty, who is signed for one more year after this one at a $4.5MM cap charge. Pittsburgh may want to make a splash but unless they’re willing to send a big contract the other way, there may not be a fit for a deal just yet.