Atlantic Notes: Red Wings, Krug, Reinhart, Kotkaniemi
With the last piece of major housekeeping completed in Detroit after the Red Wings signed star Dylan Larkin to a five-year, $30.5MM deal, the team now has to take a look at their salary cap, which they will be over, even after they move forward Johan Franzen to LTIR. General manager Ken Holland told The Athletic’s Craig Custance, they will likely be “in the neighborhood” of $1MM over the cap.
“We’re very tight,” Holland said on Friday of the cap situation. “With this deal, we’re probably a dribble over. Not a lot, but we’re over. We’re going to have to make some decisions moving forward.”
One possibility would be to bury the contracts of Martin Frk and Luke Witkowski in the minors. However, if the team believes that veteran Henrik Zetterberg could end up missing the season as his injuries haven’t improved this summer, the team could place him on LTIR as well and wouldn’t have anything else to worry about. Custance adds, however, that if Zetterberg does return, that likely would end the chances of 2018 first-round pick Filip Zadina of making the roster out of training camp.
- In a mailbag series, Joe Haggerty of NBC Sports writes that with eight quality NHL defenseman on the roster, the team will likely make a trade before the season starts. The team has Torey Krug, Zdeno Chara, Adam McQuaid, John Moore, Kevan Miller, Matt Grzelcyk, Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo on the roster. The scribe writes that could mean that the team might be ready to move Krug if the team can get a big return for the blueliner. And they would need to, as Krug is one of the top offensive defensemen in the league as only Erik Karlsson, Victor Hedman, Brent Burns and John Klingberg have more points over the last two seasons. He has 22 goals and 110 points combined in that time.
- The Athletic’s Ryan Stimson (subscription required) wonders where restricted free agent Sam Reinhart should play next year in the Buffalo Sabres’ lineup once he signs. The 22-year-old center has been a decent center for the Sabres in the past, but saw his game blossom once he was moved up and played on the wing next to top-line center Jack Eichel. With the team moving on from Ryan O’Reilly and bringing in prospect Casey Mittelstadt, what should the team do with Reinhart? The scribe breaks down Reinhart’s game and wonders if it would be best for the youngster to take over the team’s No. 2 center position and ease Mittelstadt in.
- The Athletic’s Mitch Brown (subscription required) ranks the Montreal Canadiens’ top five prospects with 2018 third-overall pick Jesperi Kotkaniemi listed as their top prospect. The young centerman, who flew up the draft boards in the final weeks, anchors a list of prospects that Brown believes is the most exciting in the last five or six years. He has been successful playing in the SM-liiga as an 18-year-old and is expected to fill that long-waited hole in the middle.
Poll: Which 2014 Draft Pick Would You Rather Have On Your Team?
Dylan Larkin hit the news today when he inked a five-year, $30.5MM ($6.1MM AAV) contract with the Detroit Red Wings which will take him to unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2023. That will be nearly a decade since he was drafted 15th overall in 2014, a year that is still recent enough to not be able to make clear definitions of the players taken in the first round. Aaron Ekblad was the first-overall selection that year and has turned into a very good defenseman for the Florida Panthers, though has been slowed in recent seasons by head and neck injuries. Leon Draisaitl was the third-overall pick and quickly established himself as a pillar of the contender that the Edmonton Oilers were trying to build, signing an eight-year $68MM contract last summer. Sam Reinhart and Sam Bennett were second and fourth respectively and have been underwhelming, though the former will now be surrounded by the best supporting cast he’s seen since joining the Buffalo Sabres.
Lower down in the first round though there is a group of forwards that are constantly compared. Larkin is included in this group, which also stars William Nylander (8th overall), Nikolaj Ehlers (9th), and David Pastrnak (25th). Nick Schmaltz (20th) may be soon included in any comparison, but has only just finished his first full season in the NHL. Other forwards around this part of the draft lag significantly behind in point totals, but these four have all already established themselves as key parts of their team’s offense. Pastrnak leads the way with a 0.80 points/game rate, while Nylander falls in just behind him at 0.73. Ehlers signed a seven-year extension with the Jets last fall which is about to kick in and pays him an average of $6MM for the next seven years. Pastrnak, who stepped almost directly into the NHL, inked a six-year deal a year ago which pays him $6.67MM per season. He proceeded to record an 80-point campaign in the first year of it, immediately making him a bargain for the Bruins.
Nylander is the last of the group to be signed long-term, and the Toronto Maple Leafs now find themselves at something of a crossroads. With Larkin’s deal coming in shorter and more expensive than Ehlers’ extension, the Maple Leafs are likely looking at something more akin to Pastrnak’s deal. It could very well even eclipse that $6.67MM number if the team tries to buy out several UFA seasons, which the Red Wings were only able to secure one of with Larkin. Though Nylander has made it clear he wants to sign a long-term deal with the Maple Leafs, the team might be forced into a bridge deal just so they can fit all of their young talent in alongside John Tavares‘ huge free agent deal.
Since these four are so closely linked and compensated, there is an obvious question that arises. Who would you rather have on your team? Though Pastrnak has the upper hand in point production at the moment, he’s also been able to play on a line with some of the best in the league in Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand. Only Larkin plays center with any consistency, though Nylander has spent time there in the past. The added defensive responsibility in the middle might make him a better choice to build a team around, though he has lagged behind offensively through his first few seasons. Ehlers comes with three years of UFA status already purchased, and likely will have the lowest cap hit of the bunch. His $6MM cap hit is more than reasonable now, and should be a bargain as the cap continues to grow.
Cast your vote below for the player you would want most, including the contract situation they now come with. Make sure to leave your explanation in the comment section below.
Snapshots: Gionta, Larkin, Berestnev
Brian Gionta is still staying in shape in case a desirable contract falls into his lap, but doesn’t really like the idea of moving his kids around the country at this point in his career. Gionta spoke with Dave Stubbs of NHL.com, and explained that he’s instead looking at “non-playing hockey options” for the 2018-19 season. After captaining the US Olympic team and then signing for the end of the season with the Boston Bruins, Gionta may be finished with a playing career that lasted over 1,000 NHL games.
An extremely consistent two-way player, Gionta had an incredible career at Boston College winning the Hockey East title three times in four years and taking home a National Championship in 2001. His captaincy that season for BC would prepare him for the role he would be given in Montreal and Buffalo later in his career, after winning the Stanley Cup with the New Jersey Devils. A extremely well-respected player around the league, Gionta will likely finish his career with 595 points in 1,026 games and could be in line for a coaching role almost immediately.
- Speaking of captains, Luke Fox of Sportsnet suggests that the path is now open for Dylan Larkin to be named captain of the Detroit Red Wings. After signing a five-year deal today, Larkin becomes the highest-paid player on the team eclipsing current captain Henrik Zetterberg, who may not even play this season (or ever again). If Larkin were to get a “C” on his sweater, he would follow a run that saw just three Red Wings players hold the honor over the last three decades. Zetterberg, Nicklas Lidstrom and Steve Yzerman have held the position since 1986, creating quite immense footsteps for the young forward to walk in.
- The Val-d’Or Foreurs of the QMJHL will have super talented Daniil Berestnev on the team in 2018-19, taking one of their international roster spots. Berestnev was the seventh-overall pick in the most recent import draft, and will try to improve his stock for the 2019 Entry Draft with a good showing in North America. The 17-year old winger scored 62 points in just 38 games last season, putting him fourth in the U17 Russian league. Berestnev wasn’t included in the recent Hlinka-Gretzky tournament for Russia, but will get a chance at the CHL level to prove himself.
Henrik Zetterberg Still An “Unknown” For 2018-19 Season
Just as Detroit Red Wings fans were celebrating a new contract for Dylan Larkin, GM Ken Holland once again muddied the waters on whether the team will have their captain for next season. Speaking on a conference call about Larkin’s contract, Holland told media including Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press that Zetterberg is still an unknown for 2018-19 and has had trouble training this offseason:
I am anxious to know where Henrik Zetterberg is at. He’s a bit of an unknown as far as health. Have talked to his agent – he has had tough summer. He hasn’t been able to train anywhere near where at past summers. I’m hoping he’ll play.
Holland indicated that he would know more in September, but that if Zetterberg can’t play it does help the team’s cap issues that were created by Larkin’s $6.1MM average annual value. Obviously the team is hoping for the legendary forward to be healthy enough to play, but this is just the latest example of doubt that has been cast on his upcoming season.
Skeptics might look at this and question whether Zetterberg is truly too injured to play, given the coincidental decrease in salary he’s set to earn this season. After collecting at least $7MM in each of the first nine years of his current contract, the salary owed to him drops to just $3.35MM this season and $1MM for each of the next two. If Zetterberg retired the Red Wings would be on the hook for cap recapture penalties given the discrepancy of salary, a hit that couldn’t be moved to long-term injured reserve in order to give the team more flexibility. Remember that Zetterberg himself admitted last summer that the last two seasons of his contract were added to reduce the overall cap hit before rules were put in place to close that loophole. While the Detroit captain eventually walked back those comments some will still point to the timing of this injury as questionable.
Even though Zetterberg has played in all 82 games the last three seasons though, there have been multiple reports that a back injury has limited him for some time. Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) relays a report from one source who said it was hard to watch Zetterberg even put on his skates given his injury. The 37-year old forward recorded just 11 goals in 2017-18, matching the lowest total in his entire career (and that came in a lockout-shortened season). Even if he did play, there’s no guarantee he would be effective on the ice, though he still was a positive possession player last season.
If he doesn’t play, Zetterberg’s $6.08MM cap hit could be added to Johan Franzen on long-term injured reserve, giving the Red Wings plenty of flexibility going forward. Even with that added benefit though, it would be tough to watch another one of the NHL’s greats simply fade into irrelevance while still under contract and not have a proper retirement ceremony for several seasons.
Dylan Larkin Re-Signs With Detroit Red Wings
The Detroit Red Wings have locked up the final piece of their team, signing Dylan Larkin to a five-year contract. Larkin had been clear recently that a contract was close to being completed, and that he was looking forward to his next chapter in Detroit. According to Craig Custance of The Athletic, the deal will carry an average annual value of $6.1MM, putting the Red Wings over the $79.5MM cap for this season. The team can go up to 10% ($7.95MM) over the ceiling during the offseason. Custance also provides us with the full salary breakdown:
- 2018-19: $5.75MM salary + $1MM signing bonus
- 2019-20: $7MM salary
- 2020-21: $4.75MM salary
- 2021-22: $6.75MM salary
- 2022-23: $5.25MM salary
The contract also includes a full no-trade clause in the final season, as Larkin was not eligible for any trade protection prior to that. Though it certainly doesn’t have much of an impact on his deal right now, that could be a huge factor given that the forward is now scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency at the age of 26. Larkin celebrated his 22nd birthday just a few days ago, and has the potential to be the absolute top option on the UFA market down the line. The no-trade clause will limit the Red Wings if they can’t work out an extension, though that isn’t something they’ll have to worry about for some time.
Instead, the Red Wings brass will be celebrating as they lock up the new face of their franchise for at least another five seasons. Larkin led the team in scoring with 63 points this season and started to fully realize his immense potential. One of the best skaters in the entire league, Larkin’s transition to center full-time this season came with a different offensive style as he couldn’t rely on his blazing speed to get around defenders on every rush. Instead he became a top notch distributor and trailed only Connor McDavid, Mathew Barzal, Claude Giroux, Steven Stamkos and Artemi Panarin in even-strength assists. Though his speed can still give defenders trouble in a one-on-one situation, Larkin will hopefully continue to grow his offensive arsenal over the next few years.
Unfortunately for Detroit, his breakout meant that they had to pay up in this deal to keep him around. The team now projects to be more than $3MM over the cap ceiling for the upcoming season, and even with the flexibility that can be created by placing Johan Franzen on long-term injured reserve, will need to make an additional move before the offseason concludes. As we discussed in our live chat yesterday, some of the obvious candidates for trade are Gustav Nyquist, Darren Helm and Luke Glendening, though it’s not clear what the market would be for any of them. It is interesting to look at the deals handed out this summer to Thomas Vanek ($3MM AAV), Mike Green ($5.375MM AAV) and Jonathan Bernier ($3MM AAV) now that the team is in a bind financially. Though all three should help the team on the ice, Vanek and Green both received no-trade clauses and Bernier is the only goaltender signed past the upcoming season.
Detroit isn’t exactly set up to compete for the Stanley Cup in 2018-19, but they certainly shouldn’t be among the very worst in the league. Larkin, Anthony Mantha and Andreas Athanasiou headline a nice young core up front, while Bernier and Jimmy Howard should be an above-average goaltending tandem. There isn’t much upside on defense at the moment, but with more youth coming in players like Dennis Cholowski, Jared McIsaac and Gustav Lindstrom it could change quickly. There is also the wildcard of Filip Zadina, who could make the club out of camp and step right into a big offensive role. The team does have to remember that he can earn up to $850K in performance bonuses though, which would be carried over to next season if the team does not have cap space.
Today is about Larkin though, who will now be expected to take another step forward and become the player Detroit builds around. As Henrik Zetterberg and Niklas Kronwall drift off into the sunset and the last remnants of the last golden age of Detroit hockey fades away, Larkin will be the one tasked with ushering in the next competitive team.
Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings Inching Closer To Contract
Among the names left on the restricted free agent list, Dylan Larkin stands out as a potential franchise linchpin. Though William Nylander and Sam Reinhart are important forwards, and Noah Hanifin, Darnell Nurse, Shea Theodore and Josh Morrissey are all talented defensmen, it’s Larkin that could be the face of the Detroit Red Wings for quite some time and probably the most important contract to still be worked out. Larkin recently said that he believed something would be done before training camp, and yesterday reiterated that fact to Sportsnet’s Luke Fox.
Something’s coming. I’ve told everyone I think it’ll be before training camp. It’s right there. I’m just waiting to iron out the details.
There have been reports that the Red Wings have been working towards a five or six year contract, but Larkin indicated that there are “different offers out there” that could also include a shorter bridge deal. That depends on how much room GM Ken Holland and the Detroit front office can clear up this summer, given that the Red Wings only have $2.83MM in cap space. Larkin would take up more than that even on a bridge deal, meaning there is plenty more work to be done for the club over the next few weeks.
Teams can go over the cap in the offseason (up to 10% or $7.95MM), and the Red Wings still have Johan Franzen‘s cap hit that can be placed on long-term injured reserve for additional cap flexibility. But if Larkin does end up signing a long-term deal, it would take up a considerable amount of space given that he has just four years of restricted free agency remaining.
Even with the crunch that is occurring right now for Detroit, the may rather get Larkin under contract for some of his unrestricted free agent years given that their cap situation starts clearing up as soon as 2019-20. With nearly $18MM scheduled to come off the books in the form of Gustav Nyquist, Jimmy Howard, Thomas Vanek and Niklas Kronwall, the team can certainly afford to give the next wave of talent substantial raises. As a team the Red Wings are getting closer to financial freedom and a real chance at a rebuild, and Larkin’s next deal will set the precedent for all the players that come after him. It might still take a little while to work through, but at this point both sides seem confident something will get done.
Poll: Who Are The Best Centers In The NHL?
The NHL Network lit up the hockey world recently when they revealed their list of the Top 20 Centers in the league, ranking Connor McDavid as the best in the league ahead of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. The number four slot was occupied by Auston Matthews, which ruffled some feathers, while the reigning Stanley Cup champions Evgeny Kuznetsov and Nicklas Backstrom were down at 13 and 14 respectively.
The Penguins (Croby, Malkin), Maple Leafs (Matthews, John Tavares), Capitals (Kuznetsov, Backstrom) and Oilers (McDavid, Draisaitl) all had two names on the list, while other potential options like Eric Staal, Vincent Trocheck, Jonathan Toews, Brayden Schenn, Brayden Point, Ryan O’Reilly, Sean Monahan and Dylan Larkin were all absent.
Since the NHL Network’s fan vote was so different—Jay Beagle ranked 20th on the list—we thought we’d do our own tally here at PHR. In the poll below we’ve listed many options and are asking you to vote for your top group by selecting 10 names. Does Matthews stay in the top five? Can defensive wizards like Anze Kopitar and Patrice Bergeron climb up the rankings? Does the PHR community believe in William Karlsson? Cast your vote for the top 10 centers in the league and make sure to leave a comment explaining your choices.
[Mobile users click here to vote]
*Though Claude Giroux has played center for much of his career, his absence from the NHL Network list means he was likely left off the ballot. We’ve similarly left him out of the poll, along with other part-time centers like Joe Pavelski, Blake Wheeler and Logan Couture. If you feel as though any of them should be included in this group, make sure to leave a comment down below.
Plenty Of Talent Remains Unsigned Among Restricted Free Agents
Now that all of the arbitration hearings have concluded and any player filings resolved, 21 restricted free agents remain unsigned around the league. These players must have a contract by December 1st in order to play at all this season, otherwise they will have to sit out the whole season. On the list are several players who play a huge role on their respective teams, and are likely in negotiations on long-term contracts.
Dylan Larkin, perhaps the most talented offensive player on the Detroit Red Wings, expects to sign before training camp begins in a little over a month. There have been reports that he’s looking at a five or six year contract, which would take him right to unrestricted free agency. The talented forward scored 62 points last season and is a huge part of the future for the Red Wings, but the team is currently in salary cap trouble and likely needs to make a move of some sort before the start of the year to fit Larkin in.
William Nylander has also been clear in his desire for a long-term deal, but isn’t stressing about the negotiations. The Toronto Maple Leafs will face questions over the next few seasons of how to fit all of their talented forwards under the cap, and the first real step towards that salary structure is getting something done with Nylander. The 22-year old forward finished with 61 points for the second year in a row, but could take another step forward if the Maple Leafs second powerplay unit rebounds in 2018-19.
Among defensemen, Noah Hanifin, Shea Theodore and Josh Morrissey stand out as some of the most important names. Hanifin’s contract is finally on the front burner after a busy arbitration schedule for the Calgary Flames, and things are progressing in a “positive” direction. When the Flames bought out Troy Brouwer‘s contract last week they gave themselves some flexibility for signing Hanifin to a long-term deal, but could always go the bridge route to make sure he fits into their organization properly. Theodore developed into a key piece for the Vegas Golden Knights this season after starting in the minor leagues due to a roster crunch, and should be rewarded accordingly on his new deal. The Golden Knights haven’t been shy about locking up some of their key players recently, and Theodore should likely be no different.
Morrissey is interesting, given the uncertainty around the Jets blue line in general. Jacob Trouba is once again on a short-term deal and could bolt for unrestricted free agency in 2020, while Tyler Myers is scheduled to become a UFA next summer. If the team has plans on retaining either of them they’ll have to be careful with how much money they commit to Morrissey, despite his obvious talent and fit for the club.
The full list of restricted free agents is below:
Ondrej Kase (ANA)
Nick Ritchie (ANA)
Marek Langhamer (ARZ)
Sam Reinhart (BUF)
Noah Hanifin (CGY)
Hunter Shinkaruk (CGY)
Dylan Larkin (DET)
Matt Puempel (DET)
Darnell Nurse (EDM)
Michael McCarron (MTL)
Kerby Rychel (MTL)
Kevin Rooney (NJD)
Steven Santini (NJD)
Miles Wood (NJD)
Jordan Schmaltz (STL)
William Nylander (TOR)
Shea Theodore (VGK)
Eric Comrie (WPG)
Nicolas Kerdiles (WPG)
J.C. Lipon (WPG)
Josh Morrissey (WPG)
Dylan Larkin Expects To Sign Before Training Camp
There are still some big name restricted free agents that remain unsigned around the league, including Dylan Larkin of the Detroit Red Wings. After leading his club in scoring last season Larkin wasn’t eligible for arbitration and was in no rush to get a new contract early in the offseason. Larkin was a guest coach at the Red Wings’ youth camp today, where he spoke to reporters including Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press:
I feel pretty confident that something will get done before training camp. No worries about it.
St. James tweets that the two sides are looking at a five or six-year contract, which would buy out at least one unrestricted free agent year. Every time that you take away UFA seasons from a talented young player the cap hit of the deal will increase, something that the Red Wings will have to carefully navigate in contract talks. The team currently has just $2.8MM in cap space, though Johan Franzen‘s contract will eventually be placed on long-term injured reserve. The team can also be up to $7.95MM (10% of the cap) over the ceiling during the offseason, meaning they could sign Larkin and then make additional moves before the year begins.
With 63 points last season, Larkin finally started fulfilling his potential as a top center in the NHL. His physical gifts are obvious, blessed as one of the league’s fastest skaters and possessing high-end puck skills and playmaking ability. His 39 even-strength assists put him behind only Connor McDavid, Claude Giroux, Artemi Panarin, Steven Stamkos and Mathew Barzal, while his 6.9% shooting percentage will almost certainly improve going forward. Logging nearly 20 minutes a night, Larkin established himself as the future in Detroit and could easily take another step forward next season after turning 22 just a few days ago.
The Red Wings are still in trouble financially for the next few seasons, but are slowly turning things around through the draft. With Filip Zadina and Joe Veleno joining the organization from this draft’s first round, and other young players like Dennis Cholowski and Michael Rasmussen closing in on the NHL, there could be a youth movement coming in the next few seasons. Larkin will be the spearhead for that movement, and should get some contract certainty in the next few weeks.
Atlantic Notes: Reinhart, Panthers, Forsbacka Karlsson, Canadiens
The recent restricted free agent deals signed by Calgary’s Elias Lindholm (6-year, $29.1MM deal) and Minnesota’s Jason Zucker (6-year, $27.5MM deal) may be interesting, but no one might be more intrigued by those deals than Buffalo Sabres restricted free agent Sam Reinhart.
The Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington cites that Reinhart has quite similar numbers to that of both Lindholm and Zucker. Reinhart is coming off a 25-goal, 50-point season, while Lindholm tallied 16 goals and 44 points. Zucker potted 33 goals for 66 points. So a long-term extension could look similar to those two deal.
However, Harrington also adds that the Sabres are likely maneuvering for a shorter bridge deal as the team still isn’t sure what they have in Reinhart. He was drafted in the same 2014 draft that produced Detroit’s Dylan Larkin, who is also looking for a long-term deal. Yet, Larkin is the face of Detroit’s franchise, while Reinhart is not with players like Jack Eichel and Rasmus Dahlin around.
- Jameson Olive of the Florida Panthers website reports that he recently interviewed Panthers’ general manager Dave Tallon, who said there are still a number of players available out there that the GM likes, so don’t be surprised if the Panthers aren’t done dealing. The Panthers have been relatively quiet this offseason, although they did trade for Ottawa’s Mike Hoffman earlier this year as well as sign goaltender Michael Hutchinson to a one-year deal through free agency. The team’s biggest addition is likely to come from their youth as prospects like Henrik Borgstrom and Owen Tippett are expected to take on full-time roles with the team this season. However, could a trade still be in the works?
- The Athletic’s Joe McDonald (subscription required) writes that the Boston Bruins expect that prospect Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson will challenge for the third-line center job in training camp this year. The 21-year-old, who was a second-round pick back in 2015, posted 15 goals and 32 points in his first season in the AHL and hopes to make the jump next season. “He’s got the ability,” Providence Bruins coach Jay Leach said. “He has a high level of skill and can make high-end plays, the kind of plays you need your third-line center to make at the NHL level. He went through a year last year where he turned into a professional hockey player. He was playing against men, and there were some adjustments, and he still had a pretty solid year.”
- Brendan Kelly of the Montreal Gazette notes that many people are wondering why the Montreal Canadiens left $8MM in cap room sitting around last season when they could have spent it to upgrade their team. With no free agents to worry about, the team has almost the same amount of money available to spend this season, but once again seems content not to spend that money, suggesting the team would rather save that money for their profits. He wonders if Montreal fans are willing to accept a bargain-basement team.