Evening Snapshots: Spectacular Sophomores, Hartman
- The Hockey News’ Jared Clinton makes his case for five players who avoided the dreaded sophomore slump this season. At the top of his list is Edmonton’s Connor McDavid, who Clinton writes is the reason for the Oilers’ turnaround this season. Had it not been for the clavicle injury last season, McDavid would have had one of the best back-to-back seasons that rivaled Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin. Next is the Blackhawks’ Artemi Panarin, who Clinton believes the Hawks have to absolutely re-sign at all costs. That would certainly cause some financial posturing, but he believes Panarin to be a devastating personnel loss should he go elsewhere. The Winnipeg Jets’ Nikolaj Ehlers, the Hurricanes’ Jaccob Slavin, and the Blues’ Colton Parayko round out Clinton’s top five.
- The Blackhawks have been on a tear lately and rookie Ryan Hartman has been one of the brightest spots for Chicago. Chris Hine writes that the young forward has learned quite a bit about being more patient on the ice and not corralling penalties as he would have in the past. Hine describes him as an irritant, there’s a reason for Hartman’s change of play:
“You have an opportunity to play in the NHL and be in the lineup every night. If you’re going to take penalties and do that kind of stuff, you’re not going to be in the lineup for long,” Hartman said. “I just try to stay out of the box as much as possible, and it related to me being on the ice more.”
Drawing penalties instead of causing them has been a boon for the Hawks and the young forward. He’s also shown a knack for scoring timely goals. Hartman notched the winner against San Jose on Sunday night and already has six on the season. Playing for a coach known to favor veterans, Hartman is making the most of his chance and certainly justifying his playing time from Joel Quenneville.
Injury Notes: Hertl, Sharp, Bortuzzo
Tomas Hertl has flown back to San Jose to undergo an MRI on his knee, according to Kevin Kurz of CSN. The Sharks forward injured himself in the second period last night, leaving the game and not returning. While the extent of the injury is unknown, “waiting for MRI results” has not been a nice feeling for fans around the league of late; both Steven Stamkos and Taylor Hall received terrible news following trips home for examination.
If Hertl is to miss any length of time, it would adversely affect a Sharks squad that is already having trouble scoring goals. With 39 goals scored, they rank ahead of only the Vancouver Canucks and Colorado Avalanche in the Western Conference. While the team is still carrying a positive 9-8-0 record through the first 17 games, losing one of their top scoring threats would be devastating.
- Patrick Sharp is set to make his return to the lineup Saturday night for the Dallas Stars. The veteran sniper has missed the last fourteen games with a concussion suffered on a hit from Brayden McNabb in October. The consistent scoring threat is coming off his eighth 20-goal season, and hoping to reach that mark again in what is a contract year for the 34-year old. Sharp is earning $5.9MM this season in the final year of a five-year, $29.5MM deal signed way back in 2011. Even at his advanced age he’s likely to be looking for a multi-year contract to end his career.
- The Blues are starting to get healthier, as Robert Bortuzzo will be returning this weekend as well. The defenseman has missed the past ten games with a lower-body injury, though it’s not a guarantee that he’ll crack the lineup right away. As Ken Hitchcock points out “The one challenge for us is we’re carrying lefty-righty right now and it’s working, so that’s something we’ve got to think about also.” With Alex Pietrangelo and Kevin Shattenkirk ahead of him, Bortuzzo would have to beat out Colton Parayko to skate on the right side, which is much easier said than done the way the 23-year old has established himself this season.
Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Johansen, Parayko, Teravainen
Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated their respective negotiation processes.
Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency, unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we finish with the Central Division and move to the Metro.
Ryan Johansen (Nashville) – In Ryan Johansen, the Predators finally have that elusive #1 center they have lacked since the organization’s inception nearly two decades ago. In a rare “hockey trade” that benefited both parties, Nashville acquired Johansen from Columbus in exchange for Seth Jones, a potential franchise defenseman and something the Blue Jackets have sorely needed.
Johansen has tallied at least 60 points in each of the last three seasons and scored a career-best 71 as a 22-year-old during the 2014-15 campaign. On the downside, his goal scoring output has decreased from a career-high 33 in 2013-14 to 26 the following season and to just 14 in 2015-16. That’s likely the direct result of a shooting percentage of just 7.6%, a figure which was more than five points below the combined shooting percentage the two previous seasons. Simply converting shots at his normal rate would have resulted in a 24 – 25 goal campaign.
The Predators have done a marvelous job of locking up their core pieces to bargain long-term deals. Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi, Craig Smith and Mattias Ekholm have all recently inked extensions with Nashville at AAVs below what each player could have received on the open market. The trade-off for higher salaries during RFA years is cost-certainty and buying out free agent years below market value. Expect Nashville to employ the same strategy with Johansen.
Sean Monahan and Nathan MacKinnon have each established themselves as 60-point producers and received extensions with an AAV in excess of $6MM. Aleksander Barkov, coming off a career-best 59-point season, signed a six-year, $35.4MM deal with Florida. All three, however, were coming off their ELCs while Johansen is entering the final season of his second contract. That means any long-term deal would buy out more free agent seasons and typically that tends to be more expensive. Based on the comparable deals and his proximity to free agency, a long-term contract for Johansen could well approach or even reach $7MM annually.
Colton Parayko (St. Louis) – Parayko came out of nowhere to earn a regular job on the Blues blue line and posted a solid scoring line of 9-24=33 in 79 contests as a rookie. He boasts a hard shot from the point and tremendous size at 6-foot-6 and 226 pounds. Currently, Parayko is skating in the World Cup as a member of Team North America, flashing his abilities on the international stage.
With only a single season of NHL experience, gauging Parayko’s potential value is difficult. However, if he approximates his 2015-16 production levels this upcoming season, the four-year, $19.5MM contract awarded to Sami Vatanen by the Ducks could prove to be a reasonable comparable.
Vatanen posted campaigns of 37 and 38 points in 2014-15 and 2015-16 respectively before inking his current deal. Like Parayko, Vatanen is also a right-handed defenseman, which is more difficult to find than their counterparts on the left side.
St. Louis could counter with Ryan Ellis as a comparable. Ellis signed a five-year, $12.5MM contract in October of 2014 following a 27-point campaign with the Predators. But most would argue Ellis is worth more than that AAV and consequently Parayko would be too. It’s also possible the Blues would prefer to go with a bridge contract with a lower AAV than Parayko would be able to get on a long-term deal.
Teuvo Teravainen (Carolina) – The Hurricanes took advantage of Chicago’s salary cap woes and in exchange for agreeing to take on the final season of Bryan Bickell‘s $4MM-a-year-deal, were rewarded with the skilled Teravainen. Much was expected from the young Finn following the 2014-15 postseason that saw Teravainen record 10 points in 18 games as the Hawks won their third Stanley Cup in six seasons. While a 35-point campaign as a 21-year-old is solid, Teravainen’s skill suggests there is even more scoring potential.
It makes sense to stick with the Hurricanes when looking for a comparable since doing so offers insight to how the club values their RFAs. Earlier this summer, Carolina agreed to a six-year, $24MM extension with Swedish center Victor Rask. Rask was coming off a breakout campaign which saw the 23-year-old pivot post career-highs in both goals (21) and assists (27). More importantly, his first NHL season mirrored Teravainen’s in terms of production as Rask netted 11 goals and 33 points in 80 games for the Canes in 2014-15. If Teravainen follows the same path and boosts his offensive production into the 45-point range, a contract similar to that of Rask’s would seem a safe bet.
Potential 2016-17 Impact Rookies: Lindell, Johns, Fiala, Barbashev
In order to have the opportunity to make an impact as a rookie in the NHL, a player typically must earn a job in training camp – beating out veteran options along the way – and find a way to translate his talents to the ice at the highest level in the world. It’s not often youngsters with little to no NHL experience are guaranteed a role with the big league team but there are exceptions of course. Today we examine four rookies who might find themselves in a position to affect his team’s on-ice fortunes. Two are virtually assured regular playing time while the others will have to impress their teams before seeing any ice time in the NHL this season.
Esa Lindell and Stephen Johns (Dallas) – With the Stars moving on this summer from three of the club’s regular blue liners – Kris Russell, Jason Demers and Alex Goligoski – Dallas certainly has spots up for competition with Lindell and Johns considered front-runners for those jobs. Both players offer good size – Lindell is 6-foot-3, 215 pounds and Johns is 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds – but bring differing skill sets to the table otherwise.
Lindell is a skilled offensive defender who tallied 14 goals and 42 points while playing 73 games for the Texas Stars of the AHL. The 22-year-old blue liner was Dallas’ third-round pick, chosen 74th overall, in the 2012 draft. After two-plus seasons playing in Finland, Lindell made his North American debut in 2014-15, skating in 5 contests with the Stars AHL affiliate. Lindell also saw his first taste of NHL action with four appearances for the Stars. He is currently slotted as the team’s third LD, behind veterans Dan Hamhuis and Johnny Oduya.
Johns is a more physical blue liner who averaged more hits per game than any other Stars player. He wrapped up his four-year collegiate career with Notre Dame scoring 15 goals and 57 points in 162 NCAA contests. Johns made his pro debut with the Rockford IceHogs, the Chicago Blackhawks AHL affiliate, in 2013-14 and scored five points in eight games. He would return to Rockford the following campaign and recorded four goals and 21 points in 51 contests.
The Blackhawks packaged Johns with Patrick Sharp in a deal with the Stars that returned Ryan Garbutt and Trevor Daley to Chicago. Johns made 55 AHL appearances with Texas and another 14 with Dallas in the regular season. He also saw action in 13 postseason contests with the Stars. Presuming head coach Lindy Ruff will split his two rookies up, the right-handed Johns stands a good chance to get plenty of work opposite either Hamhuis or Oduya in the Stars top-four this season.
Kevin Fiala (Nashville) – Predators GM David Poile held off on adding a top-six forward at the 2016 trade deadline because he was under the impression – mistaken in hindsight – that Jimmy Vesey would sign with the team in time to contribute down the stretch and into the playoffs. As we all know, Vesey had different ideas and elected to wait until August 16th when he would reach unrestricted free agency before choosing his first professional employer. That hole also went unfilled this summer giving a glimmer of hope that Fiala, with an impressive training camp, can break camp with the team and seize a top-six role.
Fiala was Nashville’s first-round selection in 2014 out of the Swiss league and is said to have game-breaking offensive potential. Because he is a native of Switzerland and played his junior hockey in Europe, Fiala was able to be assigned to the AHL once under contract with the Predators. As such, Fiala has already accumulated 99 AHL regular season games and has another six with the Predators. After a slow start, Fiala rebounded last season tallying 50 points in 66 games with the Milwaukee Admirals.
The Predators could choose to get the 19-year-old Fiala more minor league seasoning to further develop his game. Fiala seems to understand that it may take time before he earns a regular role with Nashville but with the Predators on the lookout for more offense, they could elect to give the youngster a chance to show if he can contribute this season.
Ivan Barbashev (St. Louis) – Unlike last season when they successfully integrated LW Robby Fabbri and D Colton Parayko into the lineup, the Blues may simply not have an opening this year for a rookie. The Blues addressed the loss of free agents David Backes and Troy Brouwer by signing David Perron. They also expect Vladimir Sobotka to make his return from the KHL and to fill a regular spot in the lineup. However, even though the odds are probably against it, if the Blues do go to the rookie well at some point this season, expect Ivan Barbashev to be a top contender for the promotion.
Barbashev played his junior hockey for Moncton in the QMJHL and tallied a solid 68 points in 48 games during his draft year. St. Louis would use their second-round pick in 2014 on Barbashev and the skilled winger enjoyed a tremendous 2014-15 campaign with Moncton, potting 45 goals and recording 95 points in 57 games. Barbashev made his pro debut in 2015-16, skating in 65 contests and scoring 28 points for the Chicago Wolves in the AHL.
Barbashev, who doesn’t turn 21 until December, would probably be better off returning to Chicago for another season, giving him the opportunity to fine tune his game further before assuming a regular spot with the Blues. A 28-point campaign in the AHL for a first-year pro isn’t bad but it’s not close to what Barbashev’s talent level suggests he is capable of. More seasoning would likely be a huge benefit for the youngster. But if a need arises, the Blues could turn to the talented young winger to add some skill and offense to the lineup.
Central Notes: Avalanche Coaching Vacancy, Parayko, Bouramman
There is plenty of speculation as to who the Avalanche will hire following the surprising resignation of Patrick Roy, who was Colorado’s head coach for the past three seasons. As the Denver Post’s Terry Frei notes, GM Joe Sakic will not be promoting any of their three assistant coaches (Tim Army, Dave Farrish, and Nolan Pratt, the latter being hired just this offseason) to the position.
When you consider that Colorado’s AHL head coach, Eric Veilleux, is beginning his first season as an AHL bench boss, it would appear highly likely that the Avs will be looking outside the organization to find a replacement for Roy. One speculative option is Bob Hartley who coached Colorado from 1998-2002 but in a separate piece from Frei, he declined to comment on his potential candidacy. Hartley was let go by Calgary this offseason with one year left on his contract.
Earlier this week, we took a closer look at some of the possible candidates for the position. Others that have been linked to Colorado early on is former Ottawa head coach Paul MacLean and Utica Comets head coach Travis Green, who garnered consideration from other teams for their vacancies earlier this offseason.
More from the Central Division:
- Louis defenseman Colton Parayko capped off a memorable rookie year in a different way on Friday. After picking up 33 points in 79 games with the Blues (plus another seven points in 20 postseason contests), Parayko graduated from the University of Alaska-Fairbanks, writes Chris Pinkert of the Blues’ official site. Parayko took five courses during the 2015-16 campaign, including three in the fall while trying to secure a roster spot in his first full professional season.
- Wild defense prospect Gustav Bouramman is in ‘advanced discussions’ to play in Lulea of the SHL next year, reports KVP’s Johan Svensson (link in Swedish). The seventh round pick of Minnesota in 2015 (201st overall), Bouramman has spent the last two seasons with Sault Ste. Marie of the OHL and still has junior eligibility remaining. Last year, he picked up 46 points in 68 games, good for a tie for fifth in the league for points by a defenseman.