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Free Agent Focus: Nashville Predators

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Free agency is now just days from opening up and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. Here is a breakdown of Nashville’s free agent situation.

Key Restricted Free Agents: G Juuse Saros — The goaltender of the future just burned his final year of his entry-level deal and now goes into restricted free agency. Still blocked by Vezina Trophy winner Pekka Rinne, the 23-year-old netminder has transitioned nicely into the team’s backup who can give the 35-year-old Rinne a breather once in a while. In a career-high 26 NHL games last year, Saros put up a 2.45 GAA and more importantly a .925 save percentage.

With Rinne on the last year of his current seven-year, $49MM deal he signed back in 2011, Saros time as the starting goaltender of the future could come soon, who even managed to make four appearances in the team’s abbreviated playoff run. With an AAV of $925K last season, Saros should get a nice bump up in pay next season.

F Ryan Hartman — The gritty forward was picked up at the trade deadline from the Chicago Blackhawks for their playoff run and projects as a solid and versatile bottom-six option for a deep Nashville roster. The 23-year-old posted a 31-point season between the two teams last year, including three goals and six points in 21 games with the Predators, while averaging 13:46 of ATOI. He added another two goals in nine playoff games for Nashville. After a season in which he made just $863K last season, he should get a raise, but with no arbitration rights, probably won’t cost the team too much.

Other RFA’s: F Miikka Salomaki.

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: Alexei Emelin — The team traded for Emelin last offseason as a means to bring in a potential top-four defenseman to fill in for the injured Ryan Ellis for the first half of the season. The 32-year-old posted almost the exact same numbers last year, but once Ellis returned in January, Emelin’s minutes dropped and in the end averaged a career-low in minutes with just 16:53 ATOI. He will take a major paycut after receiving $4.1MM last year in a deal he signed with Montreal back in 2013. However, with seven defensemen with NHL experience already locked up on the Predators roster, it doesn’t look like Emelin will return to Nashville next season.

F Scott Hartnell — While the 36-year-old had respectable numbers in his return to Nashville, the 17-year veteran is not expected to return to Nashville with the amount of young talent that is trying to break into the Predators lineup. Regardless, the veteran has already stated that he intends to play for another season, but almost assuredly will be looking for a new home.

Other UFA’s: F Cody Bass, F Brandon Bollig, G Anders Lindback, F Mark McNeill, G Matt O’Connor, D John Ramage, F Trevor Smith, F Harry Zolnierczyk.

Projected Cap Space: The Predators are projected to have $12MM in available cap space going into free agency and while the team does have to lock up a couple restricted free agents like Saros and Hartman, the team has money to play with. Regardless, the Predators haven’t been in on many free agent rumors so far suggesting the team might hold back and add specialty players to team that intends to challenge for a Stanley Cup this year. The team also must be ready to have the eventual cap space to lock up Ellis, who will be a free agent in the 2019-20 season.

 

Alexei Emelin, Scott Harnell Unlikely To Return To Nashville Predators

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The Nashville Predators are starting their offseason a little earlier than they expected, after being eliminated by the Winnipeg Jets in the second round. Now they have to face the tough decisions of who to bring back, including those who are scheduled to become unrestricted free agents. Adam Vingan of the Tennessean reports that it is unlikely that Alexei Emelin will be back with the team in 2018-19, and that they’ve already made the decision to not offer a contract to Scott Hartnell. Both players will become UFAs on July 1st.

Emelin was brought in last summer in a trade from the Vegas Golden Knights, after the team had selected him in the expansion draft. Nashville sent a third-round pick back to the Golden Knights, adding Emelin to help while they dealt with an injury to Ryan Ellis. Unfortunately, Emelin wasn’t all that effective in his one season in Nashville and would see his minutes reduced dramatically in the postseason. In 76 regular season games he registered just nine points, but did continue to be a physical presence racking up 181 hits (second on the team to only Austin Watson).

The 32-year old defenseman is coming off the final season of a four-year $16.4MM contract he signed in 2013, and will likely have to settle for something much smaller this summer. Though there will certainly be interest in him as a depth defenseman with experience playing against top competition, it doesn’t look like he can any longer be the minute-munching top-4 option he once was.

For Hartnell, it may be getting close to the end. The 36-year old winger did register 24 points in 62 games in his return to Nashville, but was essentially unused in the playoffs and doesn’t have a clear future. Bought out by the Columbus Blue Jackets last summer, there may be some interest from around the league on another one-year deal, but there isn’t much evidence he can be an impact player anymore. The former 37-goal scorer could have to settle for an incentive-based contract for 2018-19, if he decides to keep playing.

Snapshots: Torrey, Quinn, Predators

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The hockey world is saddened today, as it learned of the passing of Bill Torrey. A legendary executive, Torrey was the architect of the New York Islanders dynasty and first GM of the Florida Panthers. Not only was he an outstanding general manager and president, but he was beloved by nearly the entire hockey community. A outpouring of grief has come from former players, media and executives, all sharing their favorite stories and memories.

At PHR, as with the rest of the hockey world, we extend our condolences to the Torrey family and friends. He was 83.

  • David Quinn, coach of Boston University, has been rumored as a potential candidate for several NHL vacancies including that of the New York Rangers. Today, Larry Brooks of the New York Post reports that though he hasn’t told the Rangers, Quinn has indicated to friends that he’ll return to BU next season. Quinn is also set to coach Team USA at the World Juniors next year, something he obviously wouldn’t be able to do should he take an NHL job.
  • The Nashville Predators look like they’ll shake up their lineup for Game 4, inserting Yannick Weber and Scott Hartnell. Adam Vingan of the Tennessean reports that Alexei Emelin and Kevin Fiala were both on the ice late doing extra work, and appear to be coming out for the matchup against the Winnipeg Jets. The Predators are down 2-1 in the series and need to find a way to steal a game in Winnipeg to even the series, or face elimination on home ice Saturday night.

Vancouver’s Baertschi Likely Done For Season

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The Vancouver Canucks head coach Travis Green announced that winger Sven Baertschi has a separated shoulder and is most likely done for the season. The injury occurred in the Canucks game against the Nashville Predators Friday when Baertschi was took a hit from Predators’ defenseman Alexei Emelin early in the game and was forced to leave.

The 25-year-old Baertschi has struggled with injuries this season as he missed almost a month in December when he was hit in the jaw with a puck. He has had a good season when healthy as he has 14 goals and 15 assists in 53 games, which was on pace for a career high. However, he has never played a full season in the NHL as 69 games is his career high, back in 2015-16. He missed almost a month last season when he suffered a concussion.

The injury may also not help him in his negotiations with the Canucks as Baertschi will be a restricted free agent this summer. The team must decide whether Baertschi is part of the team’s future or whether they should move him. He is wrapping up a two-year, $3.7MM deal he signed in 2016.

 

Golden Knights Recall Jason Garrison

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When the Vegas Golden Knights selected 13 veteran defenseman in the NHL Expansion Draft this past June, traded for Shea Theodore, and signed Brad Hunt, it was clear that moves would need to be made to handle their overage on the blue line. Yet, even after trading away Marc Methot, Trevor van Riemsdyk, David Schlemko, and Alexei Emelin soon after selecting them, it still left the NHL’s newest team with a log jam on the back end. The long-term injury status of Clayton Stoner also helped the cause, but by the end of October, the team was faced with no options remaining but to waive Griffin Reinhart and, more surprisingly, Jason Garrison. Both players cleared waivers and were assigned to the AHL’s Chicago Wolves, where they have remained since.

However, Garrison is finally getting the chance to return to the NHL ranks. The Knights announced today that they have recalled Garrison from the Wolves. With Jonathon Merrill and Luca Sbisa both sidelined with injuries, Vegas is in need of some added depth on the blue line for the first time this season. The Expansion Draft pick from the Lightning is expected to join the team on their current road trip in Tampa and could make his return against his former team. A veteran of over 500 NHL games, Garrison was once a formidable defender, though his play has slipped as his age has climbed. Nevertheless, few would have expected the 33-year-old to have just four NHL games under his belt in 2017-18 versus 31 games logged in the AHL.

While Garrison cleared waivers earlier this season, the Knights do face some risk by calling him back up to the big league squad. If Garrison stays on the roster for less than 30 days or plays in less than 10 games, he can safely be returned to the AHL. However, should Garrison exceed either of those limits, he would need to be passed through waivers again if the Knights want to demote him prior to the NHL Trade Deadline. If Garrison performs admirably in that short stint, he could prove to be a tempting option for another contender to grab on waivers. Thus, Vegas faces a situation where they either want to return Garrison to the minors as soon as possible or ensure he stays on the roster until the Trade Deadline has come and gone.

Snapshots: Emelin, Guhle, Schwartz

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The Nashville Predators locked up the back half of their defense corps today, inking Matt Irwin, Yannick Weber and Anthony Bitetto to minimum-salary deals. The question now will be about Alexei Emelin, and where he fits into the picture. Emelin is an unrestricted free agent on July 1st, and Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic tweets that the two sides plan on meeting after the season to “discuss things.”

Emelin has been a fine addition to the Predators this season, able to fill in admirably while Ryan Ellis was out for the first half of the season with an injury. Now that he’s back, Emelin’s role is expected to decline though he still provides excellent depth for a potential playoff run. He also could be used closer to the deadline as a trade chip for the Predators, since part of his salary is already being covered by the Vegas Golden Knights.

  • Brendan Guhle will make his season debut for the Buffalo Sabres tonight, though a move will need to happen to reduce their roster size before that happens. Guhle is expected to skate alongisde Jake McCabe, in a long awaited return after spending three games with the NHL club during last season. Guhle is an impressive defenseman, capable of taking pucks away in his own end and moving them quickly into offensive chances, and should improve a Sabres defensive unit that has struggled mightily this season. The group of Victor Antipin, Nathan Beaulieu, Josh Gorges, Justin Falk and Zach Bogosian have just 11 points combined, despite totaling 111 games played.
  • Jaden Schwartz was having the best season of his career when he went down to injury last month, scoring 35 points in 30 games. The St. Louis Blues’ offense hasn’t been the same without him, but they could get a boost before long. Jeremy Rutherford of The Athletic reports that Schwartz is out of his walking boot and still on target for a re-evaluation on January 20th, which isn’t as far away for the club as it might seem. After tonight’s game against the Florida Panthers, the Blues have their CBA-mandated bye week and won’t get back into game action until January 16th.

Ryan Ellis Expected Back January 2nd

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Life is good for the Nashville Predators, who currently lead the Central Division with 46 points in 33 games and are about to get a huge present for Christmas. Ryan Ellis, out all season following knee surgery, is expected to be back in the lineup on January 2nd. That’s according to Predators GM David Poile himself, who told 104.5 The Zone that the defensemen is just working on his confidence after such a long layoff (quote courtesy of Thomas Willis of NHL.com):

The doctor says it’s about confidence now, he’s fully healed. I’m expecting Ryan Ellis will skate the last week of the year and be looking at the first game of 2018 as a time to be back.

Ryan EllisEllis has turned himself into one of the premier defensemen in the league, scoring 16 goals and 38 points last season while being responsible in his own end every night. The 26-year old was named “associate captain” of the Predators in the offseason, after Roman Josi—who was eventually named team captain—suggested Ellis without hesitation for the job. His return will likely feel like that of a huge trade deadline acquisition, especially if he can get back to the level he played at last season.

In the past, the Predators have leaned heavily on their top two pairings to log nearly the whole game and with Ellis’ return they can again. With Alexei Emelin now in the mix they can afford to ease Ellis back in, but it shouldn’t be long until he’s back playing somewhere near the 24 minutes a night he averaged last season. That makes the Nashville defense corps almost unmatched around the league, and will give them another advantage over the rest of the Western Conference. After a turnaround sparked by the acquisition of Kyle Turris, the Predators are a team on the rise and can be considered a legitimate Stanley Cup contender once again.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

West Notes: Caggiula, Emelin, Foligno

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The Oilers announced that they have placed forward Drake Caggiula on injured reserve.  The 23-year-old last played on October 7th so assuming they back-dated the placement, he will be eligible to be activated at any time but this frees up a spot on the 23-man roster.

With center Leon Draisaitl now in concussion protocol, some speculated that the Oilers would turn around and sign center Chris Kelly, who has been skating with the team despite being released from his PTO at the end of training camp.  However, the team instead opted to recall veteran Brad Malone from Bakersfield of the AHL to take Caggiula’s roster spot.  The 28-year-old has three points in three minor league games this season and has 176 career NHL games under his belt between Colorado and Carolina.

Elsewhere out West:

  • Depending on how Predators defenseman Ryan Ellis recovers from his knee surgery and if Samuel Girard can continue to hold down a roster spot, Adam Vingan of The Tennessean suggests that blueliner Alexei Emelin could potentially be a trade candidate later in the season. The 31-year-old is in his first season with Nashville but despite the injury to Ellis, he has seen his average ice time drop by four minutes per game in the early going.  If they do decide to move him at some point, his contract shouldn’t be as onerous to move as Vegas is retaining a little more than $1.1MM of his $4.1MM cap hit.
  • Wild winger Marcus Foligno is scheduled to undergo a procedure on the left side of his face, notes Rachel Blount of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. In doing so, the team is hopeful he will be able to return to the lineup fairly quickly, albeit with a full cage on his mask.  Minnesota is off until Friday so Foligno may not wind up missing too much time in the end.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vegas Golden Knights

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Vegas Golden Knights

Current Cap Hit: $69,375,832 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Alex Tuch (Two years remaining, $925K)
D Shea Theodore (One year remaining, $863K)

Potential Bonuses

Tuch: $425K

While the brand-new franchise is focused on building up a powerhouse team over the next five years, which means draft picks and more draft picks, which will create a revolving door at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, there should be at least one constant who is already locked in for the future in Theodore. The just-turned 22-year-old is considered to be a long-term piece and despite the team’s overwhelming defensive logjam, the hope is Theodore is on the team’s opening day roster. Theodore shined last year during Anaheim’s playoff run when he along with several other defenseman had to step in for injured players and fared well. Theodore, a offensive defenseman, was a first-round pick of the Ducks in 2013 and despite having just nine points in 39 regular season games last year, he put up eight goals in 14 playoff games.

Tuch, a talented forward acquired near the expansion draft in a side deal with the Minnesota Wild, has a chance to immediately make the team out of training camp. The 21-year-old wing was a first-round pick in 2014 and scored 18 goals for the AHL’s Iowa Wild last year.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F James Neal ($5MM, UFA)
F Mikhail Grabovski ($5MM, UFA)
D Jason Garrison ($4.6MM, UFA)
F David Perron ($3.75MM, UFA)
D Luca Sbisa ($3.6MM, UFA)
D Clayton Stoner ($3.25MM, UFA)
D Brayden McNabb ($1.7MM, UFA)
D Jonathon Merrill ($1.14MM, RFA)
F William Karlsson ($1MM, RFA)
D Colin Miller ($1MM, RFA)
D Deryk Engelland ($1MM, UFA)
G Calvin Pickard ($1MM, RFA)
F Jon Marchessault ($750K, UFA)
F Teemu Pulkkinen ($700K, RFA)

The Golden Knights will be looking to move as many of their players at the trade deadline as they can. Neal should be their biggest trade bait as many teams wouldn’t mind adding a goal-scorer right in time for the playoffs. The 30-year-old wing is coming off a 23-goal season in Nashville and has scored 165 goals in the last six seasons combined. The team hopes that playing on a top line should keep his scoring numbers up high so that his price increases at the perfect time, but a recent report that a wrist injury suffered during the playoffs last year is still affecting Neal and he will miss two to four weeks is concerning. The team also has high hopes it can move Perron. After putting up a career-high 28 goals in 2013-14, he has struggled with injuries but rebounded last year with an 18 goal season. If he can stay healthy and produce similar numbers, he might be worth a mid to late pick.

One key decision the team will have to make is what to do with Marchessault, who is coming off a 30-goal season a year ago in Florida. At $750K, he is a bargain for the next year, but if he can duplicate his numbers from last year, he would be in line for a big payday. Complicating the situation is that Vegas head coach Gerard Gallant is a big fan of the 26-year-old and was the head coach in Florida wlast year when Marchessault started his breakout season.

The team also has a number of restricted free agents who they will likely hold onto. While Pickard’s name is rarely mentioned in Vegas as he is the current backup, don’t be surprised if Pickard is penciled in as the goaltender of the future. The 25-year-old struggled with Colorado last year (although he did have one of the worst teams around him), but was a promising prospect before that. Miller is another who should be retained. The 24-year-old was a promising defender in Boston who was just beginning to get full-time work. He got into 61 games last year and showed quite a bit of promise. Karlsson should get a bottom line spot in the lineup. The 24-year-old is coming off a 25-point season and the team hopes he takes his game up a notch.

While Grabovski likely won’t see the ice ever in Las Vegas (freeing the team of his $5MM cap hit), Garrison is a defender who may prove to have some value if he can produce on one of the team’s top defensive lines. The 32-year-old struggled at times in Tampa Bay and his offensive numbers have declined in the past couple of years. McNabb is considered to be an excellent defender and should provide solid defense for Vegas. He missed a lot of time due to a broken collarbone injury he suffered last October, forcing the 26-year-old in and out of the lineup all season and he eventually lost his starting job at the end of the year, but should get regular minutes with the Golden Knights. Sbisa is another player who should get playing time in hopes the team can move him later this year. The 27-year-old blueliner was a solid defenseman, but few teams were interested in his $3.6MM pricetag.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Nashville Predators

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Nashville Predators

Current Cap Hit: $68,913,333 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Kevin Fiala (Two years remaining, $863K)
G Juuse Saros (One year remaining, $693K)

Potential Bonuses

Fiala: $500K
Saros: $183K

Total: $683K

A team that is designed for a Stanley Cup run probably shouldn’t have too many players on entry level contracts and the Predators have just the two. Fiala is the team’s top young potential star as the former 2014 first-rounder found himself getting called up to the Predators and logged 54 games last year, scoring 11 goals. He even managed to cement himself in the starting lineup and played in five playoff games, scoring two goals, but then broke his femur and his playoffs were cut short. Nevertheless, the team is expecting a big year from the young wing and some even have him penciled in on the team’s second line. As for Saros, the 22-year-old goalie had a pretty good showing last year, playing in 21 contests (19 starts) and putting up a 2.35 GAA and a .923 save percentage. He should be able to shoulder the load as the backup and right now looks to be Nashville’s goaltender of the future.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Alexei Emelin ($3MM, UFA)
F Scott Hartnell ($1MM, UFA)
F Cody McLeod ($800K, UFA)
D Yannick Weber ($650K, UFA)
D Matt Irwin ($650K, UFA)
D Anthony Bitetto ($613, UFA)
F Miikka Salomaki ($613K, RFA)

The team, already immersed in quality defenders, picked up another veteran defender in Emelin this offseason in a trade with the Vegas Golden Knights, who picked him from the Montreal Canadiens in the expansion draft. A solid veteran, Emelin, should fill in for the injured Ellis until he returns in December and then provide some veteran depth throughout the rest of the season, which should keep Nashville’s defensive corps as strong as it had always been and he will likely be allowed to move on when his contract expires next year.

Hartnell returns to Nashville after 10 years. Originally drafted in the first round by Nashville in 2000, the 35-year-old forward played six years for the Predators before being traded to Philadelphia. He has scored 314 goals, but only managed 13 in his last year in Columbus. The team hopes his presence will spark the team for another Stanley Cup run. The rest, including Weber, Irwin and McLeod

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