Expansion Draft Issues: Several Teams Have Moves To Make Before July 17
The trade deadline may have come and gone, but that doesn’t mean that there won’t be any more trades over the courses of the remainder of the league year. The NHL Expansion Draft is right around the corner, with protection lists due on July 17, ahead of the draft on July 21. By that time, all 30 participating teams must be able to submit a protection list that complies with the exposure requirements of the draft. As a reminder, teams may protect seven forwards, three defensemen, and a goalie or eight skaters and a goalie. However, they must also expose two forwards and one defenseman signed beyond this season and who have played in 27 NHL games this season or 54 games over the past two seasons, as well as a goaltender under team control beyond this season.
For many teams, this is easier said than done though. Long-term forwards and defensemen with considerable games played who are also deemed expendable are not all that common. With the trade deadline completed, teams are stuck with the group that they have unless they decide to make a trade in the time between their regular season end or postseason elimination and the week of the draft. Some can solve their problems internally, while others may be more hard pressed. Based on their most likely protection scheme, here are the teams with work to do:
Calgary Flames
Problem Area: Forward
Internal Solutions: The Flames may be having a difficult season, but they have a talented top-six who are all signed long-term. Except, that’s where the term forwards end. If Calgary cannot convince Milan Lucic to waive his No-Movement Clause, the team will be missing both of their required forwards for exposure by protecting Looch and the top-six. Even if Lucic does waive, the team will need to make another forward available to Seattle. RFA Dillon Dube meets the games played criteria, but the team is likely to protect the young forward or, if not, will not do anything to make him more attractive to the Kraken. That leaves fellow RFA Dominik Simon and impending UFA’s Derek Ryan, Josh Leivo, and Joakim Nordstrom, as well as Brett Ritchie with six more games played, as other names who could earn extensions due to otherwise meeting the exposure criteria.
Likelihood of a Trade: Medium. With so many affordable, bottom-six role players that the team could hand new one-year deals, the Flames have options. However, if Lucic does not waive and the team feels pressured to re-sign two of those players, they may look for outside help rather than bring back too much of a forward corps that has underachieved this year.
Colorado Avalanche
Problem Area: Forward
Internal Solutions: As one of the top scoring team’s in the NHL, the Avalanche will want to keep as much of their forward corps as they can and with the likes of Gabriel Landeskog and Brandon Saad heading to free agency and not in need of protection, the team can do just that. However, if Colorado does protect their top nine scoring forwards minus Landeskog and Saad, that leaves them with, at best, one forward to expose and zero if they choose to protect both Valeri Nichushkin and J.T. Compher. If the Avs do choose to protect the duo, that should leave RFA Tyson Jost unprotected, who they could extend in order to meet the exposure requirement. However, Jost has arbitration rights and may not rush into a new deal. Other candidates to re-sign would be UFA’s Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Carl Soderberg, or Matt Calvert. Fortunately, the Avalanche have an even easier internal fix and that is simply playing Logan O’Connor five more times before the end of the season.
Likelihood of a Trade: Low. Between playing O’Connor and exposing one of Nichushkin or Compher, Colorado may not have to make any move at all. If they do, they have options. Who wouldn’t want to re-sign in Colorado right now, even if its only for the purpose of being expansion draft fodder.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Problem Area: Forward
Internal Solutions: It’s easy to guess six forwards that the Blue Jackets will protect, but the seventh is a bit trickier. Do they expose star Gustav Nyquist, who has missed the whole season due to injury and is on a substantial contract and on the wrong side of 30? Or do they expose Eric Robinson, who has been a hard-working depth presence this season but has limited upside? Well, if they choose to protect either one, it only leave the other as meeting exposure criteria. Only if both are exposed is Columbus good to go and that scenario seems unlikely. However, the only forward currently meeting the requirements other than term is RFA Kevin Stenlund, though UFA Mikhail Grigorenko requires only two more games played (and a new contract).
Likelihood of a Trade: High. The Blue Jackets surely want to bring Stenlund back, but he has arbitration rights and may not be keen to sign quickly just to help with expansion requirements. If a Stenlund deal can’t be reached sooner rather than later, Columbus may not have a choice but to bring someone in from the outside. A Grigorenko extension seems unlikely, as does exposing both Nyquist and Robinson.
Dallas Stars
Problem Area: Forward
Internal Solutions: The Stars’ protection scheme at forward is fairly obvious, as they have seven core forwards who stand out above the rest. However, those seven are also the only regular forwards with term on their contracts. Of all other expansion-draft eligible forwards for Dallas, only Joel L’Esperance has additional time on his current deal and he cannot reach the games played requirement. As a result, the Stars must find two forwards to expose, whereas most of these other problematic teams can at least scrounge up one forward. Among the options to re-sign are veteran UFA’s Blake Comeau and Andrew Cogliano or younger UFA’s Tanner Kero and Justin Dowling. However, it may be easier to re-up an RFA like Jason Dickinson or, with three more games, Nicholas Caamano.
Likelihood of a Trade: Medium. The Stars have a number of options, many of whom will likely re-sign at some point anyhow or else Dallas will have to rebuild their bottom-six from scratch. However, with two slots to fill there is always a chance that acquiring a player could be easier than negotiating a pair of early extensions.
New Jersey Devils
Problem Area: Forward
Internal Options: A rebuilding Devils team has a number of regular forwards who are ineligible for the draft and many others, protected or not, who are restricted free agents. What they lack is many term forwards, especially of the the expendable variety. While New Jersey could go in a few different direction with their protected list, the reality is simply that they have only five draft-eligible forwards who are signed beyond this season and at least four of those are locks to be protected. The x-factor is Andreas Johnsson. The first-year Devil has fallen well short of expectations and it would not be a surprise to see him exposed, leaving the team with just one spot to fill to meet the quota. However, if they are determined to give Johnsson a second chance and not lose him for nothing, then that becomes two slots that must be filled. The other problem in New Jersey is that the team doesn’t want to give Seattle any added incentive to steal some of their promising young players. Michael McLeod, Janne Kuokkanen, Yegor Sharangovich, and Nathan Bastian would all meet the exposure criteria if extended, but it’s safe to assume that the Devils will protect two or three of that group and may not be too excited to lose any of the others. Nick Merkley, who requires seven more games played and a new deal, could be seen as more expendable and may be okay with accepting a quick extension, even if it just for expansion purposes.
Likelihood of a Trade: High. With the possibility that New Jersey could protect Johnsson and, in any scenario, will want to steer the Kraken away from their young forwards if at all possible, the Devils seem like a prime candidate to bring in some outside help with meeting exposure criteria.
San Jose Sharks
Problem Area: Forward
Internal Options: Much like the Stars, the Sharks are not an elite team right now, but possess a solid group of top-six forwards who will all be protected. Also like Dallas though, the team has complete lack of long-term commitment to any forward outside of that group. The only other eligible forward signed beyond this season is Jayden Halbgewachs, who has not played a single NHL game, nevertheless enough to meet the requirement. There is not a great list of internal options to re-sign either. Of the players who would meet exposure criteria with an extension, Patrick Marleau is likely to retire, Marcus Sorensen seems to need a fresh start in free agency, and one of Rudolfs Balcers and Dylan Gambrell is likely to be the seventh forward protected. That really leaves UFA Matt Nieto as the lynchpin. If the Sharks can re-up Nieto and whoever they don’t protect between Balcers and Gambrell, they are good to go. If Nieto isn’t keen to re-sign and if Balcers or Gambrell wish to pursue arbitration, the Sharks will be stuck without any forwards to expose.
Likelihood of a Trade: High. The Sharks are in as tough a position as any team on this list. If left exposed, Washington native Gambrell seems like a very likely pick by Seattle, but San Jose needs to meet the exposure quota all the same. That could involve bringing in one if not two forwards before the draft. There simply aren’t many other options on the roster.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Problem Area: Forward OR Defense (Scheme-Dependent)
Internal Options: It should come as no surprise that a team build entirely on a small, expensive core group and veterans on affordable, one-year deals is not well-prepared for the expansion draft. Of the ten Toronto skaters who currently meet the exposure criteria, four are forwards that will be protected in any scenario and three are defensemen that will be protected in any scenario. This leaves Alex Kerfoot at forward and Justin Holl on defense(with Pierre Engvall as the odd man out will likely be exposed regardless); only one can be protected and the other is the most likely Leaf to be selected. If the Maple Leafs value Holl more than Kerfoot, they will go with eight skaters in their protection list. In this scenario, they will not have any defensemen who meet the exposure criteria. Fortunately, any of RFA Travis Dermott or UFA’s Zach Bogosian or Ben Hutton could re-sign and fill that role. Alternatively, if the team values Kerfoot more than Holl, they will go with the standard 7-3 protection scheme. This would allow them to protect Kerfoot as well as extend and protect others like Zach Hyman, Joe Thornton, or Jason Spezza. Those three would all meet exposure requirements as well with a new deal, but Toronto will not offer them up to Seattle. Wayne Simmonds, Riley Nash, or Alex Galchenyuk could be more likely though. Unfortunately, these are all unrestricted free agents and not as easy to re-sign before the off-season as a restricted free agent. The Leafs could find themselves in a bind as a result.
Likelihood of a Trade: Low. There is still so much to be determined about the Leafs’ approach to the draft and they have options either way and player who would likely be eager to re-sign. It’s not a straightforward situation by any means, but they should be able to figure it out without taking the risk of adding salary that they can’t spare by making a trade.
Winnipeg Jets
Problem Area: Forward
Internal Options: The Jets are known for their depth at forward and eight of their top-nine meet the exposure criteria as a result, with RFA Andrew Copp not fitting the bill but almost certain to be protected anyway. The decision for the seventh and final protection slot is likely between the recently-extended Adam Lowry and upstart Mason Appleton. Whoever isn’t protected fills one of the two exposure roles. However, no one else is currently eligible. Extension candidates include UFA’s Mathieu Perreault, Trevor Lewis, and Nate Thompson, but Winnipeg may not necessarily want to commit further to any of those three. The solution: Jansen Harkins is signed through next season and requires just four more games to meet exposure level.
Likelihood of Trade: Low. Just play Harkins and move on. The list of teams in trouble is already long enough.
Winnipeg Jets Extend Adam Lowry
2:50pm: The extension is done and it will keep Lowry in Winnipeg for quite some time. The big center has signed a five-year deal that will carry an average annual value of $3.25MM. Lowry is now signed through the 2025-26 season, matching Kyle Connor for most remaining years among Jets forwards. Pierre LeBrun has the yearly breakdown, noting the deal includes no signing bonuses but does include a modified no-trade clause:
- 2021-22: $2.5MM
- 2022-23: $3.25MM
- 2023-24: $4.5MM
- 2024-25: $3.5MM
- 2025-26: $2.5MM
12:30pm: The Winnipeg Jets have several prominent names scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency this summer, perhaps none more important than checking center Adam Lowry. The 28-year-old is coming to the end of a three-year, $8.75MM deal he signed with the Jets in 2018 and would likely draw quite a crowd if he hit the open market. That’s exactly what the Jets are hoping doesn’t happen, as Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports that progress is being made on an extension and things currently look “optimistic.”
Lowry, 28, certainly isn’t the flashiest of players but occupies a key role in the middle of the Jets’ lineup. The 6’5″ center takes the most faceoffs on the team, provides a huge amount of physicality–he leads the team with 132 hits through 44 games–and is a key forward on the team’s 11th-ranked penalty kill. Add in the fact that Lowry is having arguably the best offensive season of his career, with eight goals and 20 points through 44 games, and you get a player that no team would want to lose.
The good thing for the Jets, who already have nearly $57MM committed to the 2021-22 season, is that many of those things don’t end up carrying a ton of weight in contract negotiations, despite being valuable to the team. Lowry isn’t anywhere near the biggest name on the Winnipeg roster and will never lead the team in any scoring category, meaning his cap hit should stay reasonable on a multi-year extension.
Lowry isn’t the only player on the Jets roster heading for unrestricted free agency though. Paul Stastny, Matthieu Perreault, Nate Thompson, Trevor Lewis, Derek Forbort, Tucker Poolman, Laurent Brossoit, and the newly-acquired Jordie Benn are all on expiring deals, meaning this won’t be the last extension decision the team needs to make in the coming months. Add in the looming expansion draft that makes any re-signs even more complicated—the Jets have probably six forwards who will demand protecting if Andrew Copp‘s strong play has put him in that group, not leaving much flexibility between names like Lowry and Mason Appleton—and GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has a lot of work to do, even if the trade deadline has now passed.
Winnipeg Jets Hire Dave Lowry
No more staying out late, Adam. The Winnipeg Jets have hired Dave Lowry as an assistant coach for the upcoming season, adding him to the staff of head coach Paul Maurice. Lowry is the father of Jets forward Adam Lowry, who has played six seasons in Winnipeg already.
Dave Lowry meanwhile has been around NHL rinks for a very long time, in one capacity or another. A sixth-round pick of the Vancouver Canucks in 1983, Lowry played more than 1,000 games in the NHL, scoring 351 points and racking up nearly 1,200 penalty minutes. When his playing career was finished, Lowry quickly joined the coaching staff of the Calgary Hitmen before becoming an assistant with the Calgary Flames in 2009.
With experience as an assistant in both Calgary and Los Angeles, plus many years as a head coach in the WHL (Calgary, Victoria, Brandon), Lowry brings a wealth of experience to the Jets organization. He also obviously brings a special connection with the 27-year-old Adam Lowry, though how that dynamic plays out is still to be seen.
Central Notes: Pietrangelo, Lowry, Radulov, Boqvist
The St. Louis Blues got some good news last week when they learned from NHL commissioner Gary Bettman when he announced that the 2020-21 salary cap is expected to rise between $84MM and $88.2MM. With the current salary cap set at $81.5MM this season, that would give the Blues franchise a significant amount of cap space that it could use to re-sign defenseman Alex Pietrangelo, who is currently slated to become a unrestricted free agent this summer.
In his latest mailbag, The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford (subscription required) writes that while those numbers sound promising, the NHL was projected to have a salary cap set at $83MM for the 2019-20 season and it ended up being $81.5MM, which suggests that all teams shouldn’t expect a significant increase. However, as far as Pietrangelo is concerned, the scribe believes that St. Louis has no intention of paying out any more than $9.5MM AAV, and the team would prefer a number closer to $8.5MM regardless of the increase in salary cap. The team believes that if other teams are willing to go to $10MM per season, the Blues will not match that.
Rutherford adds that if that’s the case and Pietrangelo opts to sign elsewhere, the team is unlikely to make any significant additions as there aren’t many significant free-agent defenseman this summer. That means the Blues would then hand the reins to Colton Parayko as the defensive leader next season.
- The Athletic’s Ken Wiebe reports that Winnipeg Jets forward Adam Lowry is likely to return to the lineup Monday for their game against Arizona. Lowry has been out since Jan. 19 with an upper-body injury and should be able to give the Jets a much-needed boost. The 26-year-old has four goals and 10 points in 47 games with 132 hits.
- The Dallas Stars were without Alexander Radulov Saturday due to illness, while forward Justin Dowling was able to re-enter the lineup since late January. Dowling immediately moved onto the top line next to Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin. However, with the team desperate to put up some offense after being held to one goal in the past three games, The Athletic’s Sean Shapiro (subscription required) writes that if Radulov has to miss extended time, the Stars should consider in recalling forward Jason Robertson. The 20-year-old prospect has 25 goals in his rookie campaign with the Texas Stars and has appeared in three NHL games already.
- NBC Sports’ Charlie Roumeliotis reports that after missing Friday’s game with a wrist injury on Saturday, Chicago Blackhawks defenseman Adam Boqvist is expected to enter the Blackhawks lineup today against the St. Louis Blues. He fills a gap with rookie Lucas Carlsson out with a concussion.
Bryan Little Out For The Season
Jets center Bryan Little has been out of the lineup since taking a puck to the head in early November and he’s going to be out for a while yet. Head coach Paul Maurice told reporters, including Ken Wiebe of The Athletic (Twitter links) that while the veteran has gone through a variety of tests that have yielded some positive results, they are shutting him down for the rest of the season and he will undergo surgery to help repair his perforated eardrum. The procedure carries a three-month recovery period.
The 32-year-old only played in seven games with Winnipeg this season but was relatively productive in that span, picking up two goals and three assists. While his days of playing on the top line have come and gone, he has still been a reliable secondary scorer and the Jets were certainly hoping he’d be able to come back down the stretch and give their offense a boost.
Now, it appears that GM Kevin Cheveldayoff will need to turn to the trade market to get that improvement. While they’re believed to be wary of going after a prominent rental again, they will have plenty of LTIR space to work with as Little and his $5.291MM AAV can be moved onto there while they have enough confirmation regarding suspended defenseman Dustin Byfuglien‘s status to spend on a short-term replacement for him. All of a sudden, Winnipeg could be a team to watch for between now and the trade deadline.
Meanwhile, Maurice provided an update to reporters, including Mitchell Clinton of the Jets’ team website (Twitter link) regarding two of their other injured forwards. Adam Lowry (upper body) and Mathieu Perreault (upper body) are both listed as week-to-week with the latter likely to return first. That will likely only increase the need for them to try to add a forward over the next week or so.
Winnipeg Jets Recall Kristian Vesalainen
After losing Adam Lowry for the next month and on another two-game losing streak, the Winnipeg Jets have recalled one of their top prospects. Kristian Vesalainen will join the club after playing 44 games for the AHL’s Manitoba Moose this season.
Of course, this isn’t the first time Vesalainen will be in the NHL. The first-round pick from 2017 ended up making the club out of camp last season and played five games for the Jets at the beginning of the year. After not having a real spot for him in the NHL however, he eventually used a clause in his contract to go back to the KHL.
That meant Vesalainen played in three different leagues in 2018-19, not the perfect development path for a top prospect. This season has been much different, with all of his games coming at the AHL level. The 20-year old sits third on the Moose in goals with nine and has 22 points so far.
Whether he’ll get a real opportunity at the NHL isn’t clear, but the team does still have two games before the All-Star break. After losing their last two with a combined score of 12-3 they are now 25-20-4 and actually have a negative goal differential.
Jets’ Adam Lowry Out A Minimum Four Weeks
The Winnipeg Jets have been fortunate enough to avoid major injuries to their core players this season. The only exception has been center Bryan Little, who suffered an upper-body injury in early November and has yet to return to return to game action. However, Little has begun practicing with the team and the timing could not be better. The Jets’ depth down the middle has taken another hit, as center Adam Lowry has sustained an upper-body injury of his own and is expected to miss a significant amount of time. The team believes that he will miss “at least four weeks”, putting a return date some time around late February.
Lowry’s injury occurred in Sunday night’s game against the Chicago Blackhawks, when he took a blindside hit from Drake Caggiula. Caggiula was given a minor penalty for interference, but there is not expected to be any additional response from the league. Lowry got up slowly and went straight to the locker room in obvious pain and did not return. Winnipeg went on to lose 5-2, slipping to 4-5-1 in their past ten games.
Winnipeg was looking forward to Little’s return, as their struggles of late have dropped them out of the playoff picture. Now, even with Little hoping to return soon, the Jets wills till be short-handed with Lowry out. The Athletic’s Murat Ates writes that Andrew Copp will move up to third-line center for the time being, as the team awaits Little’s return and waits out Lowry’s potential month or more absence. Lowry has just ten points on the year, but is invaluable to the team in other ways. He leads the team in hits and is their most skilled face-off man, while skating on the team’s top penalty kill unit. While Copp does many of these same things well, increased ice time for Copp is not going to make up for the loss of Lowry and even Little’s return will not totally make up for his absence. The Jets will continue to have to work hard to stay relevant this season in the wake of this injury news.
Adam Lowry Suspended Two Games
The Department of Player Safety has decided that Adam Lowry deserves supplementary discipline for his hit on Oliver Kylington during the Heritage Classic on Saturday night. Lowry has been given a two-game suspension for the incident. As the accompanying video explains:
This is boarding. It is important to note that from the moment Kylington collects the puck from behind the net, Lowry sees nothing but his back. While we acknowledge Lowry’s assertion that he anticipated Kylington opening up as he came up ice so that Lowry could deliver a legal check, the onus is on Lowry to adjust course when that does not happen.
The Calgary Flames defenseman did not suffer a major injury on the play and was back at practice today, but Lowry does still qualify as a repeat offender given he was suspended in March of this year.
It’s been a tough start to the season for Lowry, who is still without a point through the first 12 games. While he has never been a very offensive player, he has contributed consistently over the years even in a limited role. Where his real value lies however is in winning faceoffs, killing penalties and adding a dose of physicality, exactly what got him in trouble this time. The team will have to deal without his presence for a pair of games.
Winnipeg’s Lowry To Have Hearing With Department Of Player Safety
The Department of Player Safety announced that Winnipeg Jets forward Adam Lowry will have a hearing Monday for boarding Calgary’s Oliver Kylington.
The incident happened in Calgary’s zone at the end of the second period during the Jets’ 2-1 overtime victory at the outdoor Heritage Classic at Mosaic Stadium Saturday evening. Once time expired in the second period, Lowry put his shoulder right into Kylington’s head (video here). The 26-year-old received a two-minute minor for boarding, while Kylington seemed to escape any major injury as he returned and played in the third period.
Lowry has had issues with behavior before. He was suspended two games back in March of 2019 for cross-checking Nashville’s Filip Forsberg. He also received a one-game suspension in his rookie season in 2014 for boarding Buffalo’s Patrick Kaleta.
Pacific Notes: Golden Knights, Oilers, Canucks
After two years of heavy turnover and maneuvering to get their franchise off to a hot start, it looks like the Vegas Golden Knights will be taking a back seat when free agency opens on July 1. While most people weren’t expecting Vegas to be active this offseason, with their cap room already used up, Ken Boehlke of SinBin.vegas writes that President of Hockey Operations George McPhee admitted the team will be inactive:
Well we’re in pretty good shape with our core group. We have basically everyone signed up and we are close on some other things. So I don’t imagine we’re going to be out looking at free agents this summer. We like the team the way it is and we like the young guys that we have coming along.
What McPhee meant when he said the team was close on some other things could be very interesting, although it could range anywhere from a potential long-term deal with restricted free agent William Karlsson, to potential deals for fellow RFA’s Nikita Gusev, Tomas Nosek, Jimmy Schuldt or veteran UFA Deryk Engelland, or even a trade to free up cap space to sign any of them.
- The Athletic’s Jonathan Willis (subscription required) looks at the potential compatibility between the Edmonton Oilers and the Winnipeg Jets, wondering if the two teams might be a perfect match for solving each of their problems. The scribe suggests the Jets could use Edmonton to help unload some of their less-significant contracts, such as Mathieu Perreault or Dmitry Kulikov, or if the Jets are more motivated, they could consider sending winger Nikolaj Ehlers, who is coming off a disappointing season, to Edmonton for a package that could include a defenseman such as Darnell Nurse or Andrej Sekera and some of Edmonton’s youth that could help bolster the team’s depth.
- Allan Mitchell of the Athletic (subscription required) writes that the Oilers are in need of an inexpensive third-line center option, one that can kill penalties, suggesting the team look via the trade market to find that player. He writes that the Oilers should consider trying to pry Montreal Canadiens’ center Phillip Danault, as well as look at Winnipeg’s Adam Lowry, Ottawa’s Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Detroit’s Luke Glendening, or Dallas’ Radek Faksa. The scribe adds that the most likely candidate that Edmonton would be able to steal away could be Pageau.
- The Vancouver Sun’s Patrick Johnston writes that the Vancouver Canucks should seriously consider trying to convince Toronto Maple Leafs unrestricted free agent Jake Gardiner to sign with them this offseason. While there have been rumors that Toronto wants to unload other contracts in hopes of keeping Gardiner in the fold, Johnston writes that Gardiner would be the perfect puck-carrying defenseman that the team hasn’t had since Alexander Edler was in his prime. However, he wonders whether the U.S.-born blue liner might prefer to avoid playing in Canada after a taking a lot of heat from Toronto fans over the years.