2016-17 NHL Over/Unders
After giving us their opening Stanley Cup odds last week, Las Vegas odds-maker Bovada was back at it again today, releasing their over/under for each NHL team’s total points in the upcoming season. Not included on the list (below) are the Dallas Stars, who were left off the board by the odds-makers until more information is available regarding the injury to Tyler Seguin. The Stars are an unpredictable pick at this point regardless, as both Seguin and Jamie Benn are banged up, Valeri Nichushkin is suddenly gone, and the defense is still a risk following the departure of three starters.
While the points projections generally mirror the Stanley Cup odds, Bovada has certainly predicted some interesting scenarios. Despite having the highest Cup odds in the East, the Penguins are again expected to finish behind the Capitals in the Metropolitan Division. On second thought though, a slow start to the regular season for the defending champs would not be much of a surprise, nor would another postseason collapse for Washington. Elsewhere in the division, the Islanders and Rangers are projected to be in a dead heat for that final divisional seed, with the loser slipping into a wild card spot. Staying in the East, they see the Canadiens and a healthy Carey Price skyrocketing from their 82 point finish a year ago to 96.5 points in 2016-17, with the Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators taking a corresponding dip in the standings. Out West, the battles atop each division promise to be similarly tight as they were last season, but the projected jump by Calgary and Edmonton of 10+ points from bottom dwellers to playoff contenders may be a story to watch. The good news for Vancouver Canucks fans is that they’re expected to finish with more points this season than last. The bad news? It will be good enough for last place in the league.
The easiest over to take out of this group is likely the St. Louis Blues. Although they lost captain David Backes and have to see if Jake Allen can handle his bigger workload in net, the Blues are set at 101.5 points, a mark they have beaten easily in each of the past three seasons. The Ottawa Senators are another good over, as they have hardly changed their roster this summer and finished with 85 points last year and more than that the two years prior. Their 80.5 line seems unwarranted unless you believe the rest of the Atlantic Division is in for a big year. That seems unlikely, especially when it comes to the aforementioned Canadiens, who are an easy under. Yes, the loss of Price for much of 2015-16 hurt the Canadiens, but they also had a lot of trouble scoring goals as well. The effects of the trade-off between P.K. Subban and Lars Eller for Shea Weber, Andrew Shaw, and Alexander Radulov have yet to be seen, but one would think that it’s not enough to justify a 14 or 15 point increase in points. The Oilers, somewhat obviously, are also a good choice for an under. If this many seasons of “this is the year” followed by a lottery pick haven’t tempered your expectations of Edmonton yet, nothing will. Even if they do finally improve in 2016-17, will it really be to a high-80’s point total? Doubtful.
Washington Capitals 107.5 points
Tampa Bay Lightning 106.5 points
Pittsburgh Penguins 103.5 points
Chicago Blackhawks 102.5 points
St. Louis Blues 101.5 points
San Jose Sharks 100.5 points
Los Angeles Kings 99.5 points
Anaheim Ducks 98.5 points
Florida Panthers 98.5 points
Nashville Predators 98.5 points
Montreal Canadiens 96.5 points
New York Islanders 95.5 points
New York Rangers 95.5 points
Minnesota Wild 94.5 points
Boston Bruins 92.5 points
Detroit Red Wings 90.5 points
Philadelphia Flyers 89.5 points
Calgary Flames 87.5 points
Edmonton Oilers 87.5 points
Winnipeg Jets 87.5 points
Colorado Avalanche 86.5 points
Columbus Blue Jackets 84.5 points
Buffalo Sabres 83.5 points
New Jersey Devils 82.5 points
Ottawa Senators 80.5 points
Toronto Maple Leafs 80.5 points
Carolina Hurricanes 78.5 points
Arizona Coyotes 76.5 points
Vancouver Canucks 76.5 points
‘Yotes Notes: Strome, Duclair, Smith
The Hockey News published their Arizona Coyotes season preview today, and from it comes some nice analysis of the up-and-coming team. Young GM John Chayka has built a prospect-powerhouse, with players like Christian Dvorak and Dylan Strome joining the club this season.
Strome, as THN reports, is set to become the team’s second line center, behind Martin Hanzal and may skate alongside captain Shane Doan and new winger Jamie McGinn. With those two at his sides, he’ll definitely be able to use his creativity and flash to put up some strong offensive numbers. His future as the Arizona number one center isn’t set in stone, but it’s definitely a real possibility down the line.
- THN also notes that only eight of Anthony Duclair‘s 20 goals came in the second half, including just four in his final 26 games. He’s a prime candidate for a sophomore slump as he heads into his second NHL season, but if he continues to skate alongside Domi he’s sure to have respectable numbers when the season ends. Duclair is a big part of the power game that compliments players like Domi and Strome, and will be an important contributor going forward.
- If the Coyotes are to do anything resembling a playoff push, much of it will come on the back of goaltender Mike Smith. He’s 34 and coming off a few poor seasons, but did post a .944 save percentage in his return from a core muscle last season. If he can become the Vezina contender he was in 2012, this team could be a contender as soon as next season.
World Cup Players Set To Make Their NHL Debut This Season
At the World Cup of Hockey this year, there are a few players who are playing internationally for their countries before ever suiting up for a professional game in North America. For various reasons, not all of these men will ever come across to join the best league in the world. Some, however, will do so as soon as this year. Here’s a look at a few of the players who are set to make their NHL debut just after the World Cup concludes.
Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs) – Obviously, one of the biggest story lines at the tournament has been the young guns squad, captained by Connor McDavid. As we wrote earlier today however, Auston Matthews has made quite an impression on head coach Todd McClellan, and will suit up on the top line today in their opener. Matthews is the youngest player on the youngest team, and is asserting himself at the highest level already. He’ll get to greet the Maple Leaf faithful before he pulls a blue and white sweater over his back.
2015-16 stats (Switzerland) – 36 GP, 24 G, 22 A, 46 P, +16 rating
Patrik Laine (Jets) – On a Finnish team loaded up front, 18-year old Patrick Laine will take on a huge role. Even though the #2 overall pick has yet to play a professional game on the small rink, he’s already being compared to some of the greatest goal scorers of all time. Laine is following up a World Championship where he was named tournament MVP, and should step into a scoring role with the Jets immediately. His shot, skating ability and nose for the net will create an offensive dynamo, especially if he ends up skating with Mark Scheifele or Blake Wheeler.
2015-16 stats (Finland) – 46 GP, 17 G, 16 A, 33 P, +6 rating
Nikita Zaitsev (Maple Leafs) – Though Russia isn’t known for its defensive capabilities, one to keep an eye on is young Nikita Zaitzev who will be headed over to make his debut for the Maple Leafs this season. A right-handed shot who can play in all situations, Zaitzev is skating on both the powerplay and penalty kill at this tournament. If somehow he can develop some chemistry during the season with Leafs #1 Morgan Rielly, they could form a dynamic puck moving duo for years to come.
2015-16 stats (KHL) – 46 GP, 8 G, 18 A, 26 P, +21 rating
Snapshots: Lundqvist, Rantanen, Crosby
In a shocking turn of events, Henrik Lundqvist has been scratched from today’s matchup with Russia at the World Cup. As of this morning, Lundqvist was the expected starter, but came down with an illness that is making him unable to play in the game. Jacob Markstrom will take his place in net, while the backup will be Jhonas Enroth.
For Sweden, it’s a huge blow to their chances against the high-powered Russians who will ice a top line of Nikita Kucherov, Pavel Datsyuk and Alex Ovechkin. That trio had 96 goals between them last season, even with Datsyuk obviously in the tail end of his career. While the Russian defense isn’t nearly as strong, their top two lines can play with anyone in the world, and probably outscore the majority of them. Lundqvist would have been a huge part in any Swedish victory.
- According to Mike Chambers of the Denver Post, the injured Mikko Rantanen will not play today against Anaheim in the Colorado rookie showcase. While it was reported yesterday that his sprained ankle isn’t as bad as originally thought, the Avalanche have now released that it will keep him out 2-4 weeks. Rantanen is trying to show that he has developed enough to be considered for a full-time NHL job this season, after dominating at the AHL level a season ago.
- Sidney Crosby is one of, if not the, best players in the world and no one denies it. But when you hear his teammates on Team Canada speak so highly of him, like Matt Duchene did with TSN today, it really drives the point home. Duchene says “He’s not a guy who’s winning Selke trophies, but he easily could be.” Jay Bouwmeester chimed in as well, saying “He’s not just a pure goal scorer, a guy who’s just hanging out and getting points. He plays the game and he makes a lot of things happen out there, just through the way he moves, and what a powerful skater he is and how smart he is. It’s pretty impressive.”
This Day In Hockey History: Scotty Bowman
September 18th is an important day in hockey history for a few reasons. Not only will it mark the first time a ‘young guns’ team has hit the ice at an international competition of this magnitude, it was also the day one of the greatest coaches of all-time was born.
September 18th, 1933 in Verdun, Quebec a boy was born who would change the hockey world. As most boys did in Canada, Scotty Bowman quickly took to hockey and was a talented winger, even making it into the Montreal Canadiens minor league system, until March 6th, 1952 when he was struck in the head with a stick and suffered a fractured skull. Bowman remembers having blurry vision and headaches that made him unable to play to the level he was used to. He missed only one game with the head injury, a stark contrast to the brain injury protections that our now in the game.
He’d turn his attention to coaching, and led the Montreal Junior Canadiens soon after. In 30 years of NHL coaching, Bowman would amass over 1200 wins, 28 playoff appearances and 9 Stanley Cups. He’d raise the cup for three different teams, and go down as clearly one of the top few coaches in all of hockey history, if not the single greatest.
As Bowman tweeted out himself this morning, this would have been his 50th NHL training camp, should he have attended one this year. At 83, he’s been a force in hockey for longer than many coaches have been alive, and is an inspiration to young players and front office types alike. Happy Birthday William Scott Bowman, and thank you.
World Cup Notes: Matthews, Team USA, Canada B
Team North America hits the ice for the first time in Toronto today, as they prepare for their opening match against Finland. While many eyes are drawn to Oilers’ superstar Connor McDavid or the reunion of Jonathan Drouin and Nathan MacKinnon – the two starred together for the Halifax Mooseheads before being drafted – it was Auston Matthews that got much of the attention at this morning’s presser.
Matthews will be skating on the top line alongside McDavid and Mark Scheifele, despite never having played a professional game on North American soil. He’ll be in front of his new team’s fans, trying to make an impression on Leaf Nation before the season even begins. According to Craig Custance of ESPN, Head coach Todd McLellan spoke highly of Matthews when asked, saying he is hockey’s version of a 5-tool player (a term in baseball that means a player who can do everything well), and saying “he’s got better every day.”
As we wrote yesterday, Matthews is a big part of the Maple Leafs rebuild, and he’s showing why he was the first overall pick and most talked about prospect during the season. If he can keep up with the best in the world, at just 19 years old, he’ll be well positioned to have a long and successful career in the NHL.
- Team USA head coach John Tortorella is still taking a lot of heat today over his decision to bench Kyle Palmieri and Dustin Byfuglien prior to last night’s loss to Team Europe, and as the team hit the ice for practice the lines had already been mixed up. According to Terry Koshan of the Toronto Sun, Palmieri was back among the first 12 forwards, skating with Max Pacioretty and Brandon Dubinsky on the fourth line. Stephen Whyno adds that Byfuglien – widely expected to be a big part of the top pairing – is back skating with the powerplay unit (though the second group).
- James Mirtle of the Globe and Mail revealed an interesting couple of tidbits that had been just rumored so far regarding the structure of the World Cup. First, he reported that an original idea for the tournament was to have two Canadian teams, because of the strong depth the country has; he goes on to list P.K. Subban, Kris Letang, Mark Giordano, Taylor Hall and many others as examples of the talent “Canada B” would have. Second, he says that it’s widely believed that the tournament will return to an eight-country format in 2020, meaning that teams like Slovakia, Switzerland and Germany will all have chances. He doesn’t, however, mention if Team Europe or North America will return, though with good showings from both thus far, it would be surprising to see them removed.
Mikko Rantanen Suffers Apparent Right Leg Injury
5:51pm: Mike Chambers reports that the injury is an ankle sprain and nothing serious.
5:16pm: According to Mike Chambers of the Denver Post, Colorado Avalanche prospect Mikko Rantanen was helped off the ice in today’s rookie tournament game with a right-leg injury. Chambers calls it “trouble”, and if Rantanen is seriously injured it would be for the Avalanche.
Drafted 10th overall in 2015, Rantanen made his NHL debut last season after dominating the AHL. 60 points in 52 games at the lower level, he was one of the best scoring threats in the league, and was expected to contribute to the NHL level this year.
Still just 19-years old, Rantanen is already 6’4″, 211 pounds, and is one of the best power forward prospects in the league, a position that often develops slower than others. While not a lock to break camp with the team, he’ll be a big part of the top-six for the Avalanche for years to come, pairing with their smaller skilled players to make a balanced, effective line in all three zones.
Rebuilding A Franchise: Toronto Maple Leafs
When a team has a rich history of success followed by decades of disappointment, they become the league’s punchline. A joke so easy to make, some even start to sympathize with their plight – just see the pre-2004 Boston Red Sox, who fans cheered for to dethrone the mighty Yankees and get back to their previous glory.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are one of these teams. Almost universally hated at one point, they’re now just one of the bottom-feeders, and an afterthought in many fan’s minds. But since Brendan Shanahan took over in April of 2014, the team has had a clear (if sometimes ineffective) plan to tear down the culture and history of the last fifty years, and replace it with a new mentality.
The Leafs ended up at the very bottom of the standings last year, but many believe this was part of the plan. Auston Matthews was the prize, and the team can now start to head back in the right direction, with an ultimate goal of raising the Stanley Cup for the first time since 1967, and 14th in team history.
Now, as they head into their centennial season and celebrate the past greats that have donned the blue and white, the team will look for even a modicum of improvement. Matthews will help, as he looks like a lock to be a star forward in the NHL as soon as next year. He’s already playing on team North America despite never hitting the ice as a professional in NA.
They’ve built an elite prospect pool, that includes Mitch Marner and William Nylander, two blue-chippers that can support Matthews and fellow star Morgan Rielly in the resurrection of one of the leagues worst current franchises.
But in what might be their greatest accomplishment, the Shanahan-led front office has convinced a Toronto market – that is usually one of the harshest in the league – to buy into a rebuild in a way never seen before. When nine players made their debut all at once for the Maple Leafs last year, instead of disgust, fans embraced the rookie mistakes and pointed out the encouraging moments.
One of the problems, however, is that they’re not the only team in the Atlantic division to be “doing it the right way”. Buffalo, one of Toronto’s biggest rivals due to their geographic proximity, is following almost the same blueprint to turn around a once proud franchise. Their team has just as many (if not more) elite level prospects/young players, and is trying to create the same winning mentality.
For the Maple Leafs, this may sound like a broken record. They’ve tried rebuilds before, at least for a little while. What they haven’t had, since the Pat Quinn-led, pre-salary cap powerhouses (that still never got all that close to a Stanley Cup), is this level of talent. Matthews, Rielly, Marner, Nazem Kadri and James van Riemsdyk all represent all-star level talent. It’ll be up to Shanahan, Lou Lamoriello and head coach Mike Babcock to keep the team on this path, and really complete the rebuild.
Rookie Notes: Shmaltz, Puljujarvi, Erne
Rookie tournaments around the league are underway, with various teams putting their youngesters up against each other to determine readiness and sometimes NHL futures. For Chicago, today is the second of back-to-back matchups, and one of the notable names isn’t participating in the game. Nick Schmaltz, the recently signed NCAA standout was a late scratch from today’s matchup, as Scott Powers of The Athletic reports. Schmaltz was a big part of the game last night against the Blues, and is expected to make his NHL debut at some point this season.
After two seasons at the University of North Dakota, Schmaltz (the Hawks’ first round pick from 2014) is set to make an impact for a Chicago team that has seen many home grown talents leave due to salary cap restraints over the past few years. If he can slide into a scoring role like he did with North Dakota – the 20-year old put up 46 points in his sophomore year in only 37 games – he’ll help to replace the offense that Teuvo Teravainen and Andrew Shaw will be taking with them.
- After surprisingly dropping to fourth overall in this year’s entry draft, Jesse Puljujarvi is already making an impact for the Oilers at their rookie camp. After a three point outburst last night against Vancouver, Puljujarvi is one of the hottest topics in the city of champions. He’ll sit out today though against Calgary, though it’s believed he’s not out with an injury. If the Finnish winger develops as most expect him to, Edmonton may have another franchise forward on their team to step into the shoes of the recently departed Taylor Hall.
- As Bryan Burns of NHL.com writes, Adam Erne will be heading into his fourth rookie camp with the Lightning, after injuries have derailed the early part of the former second-round pick’s career. This time, the winger isn’t just trying to make an impact on the NHL club, but stay healthy enough to compete in a full professional season. An elite scoring threat at the junior level, Erne put up 29 points in 59 games last season with the Syracuse Crunch of the AHL.
World Cup Notes: Team USA, Seguin, Olympics
The World Cup of Hockey starts today in Toronto, and Team USA will take on Team Europe in the first game of the revamped tournament. While the American team has one of the strongest teams in their history, head coach John Tortorella has made some interesting decisions going into the opener. As Dan Rosen of NHL.com tweets, the infamous head coach has scratched Kyle Palmieri, Dustin Byfuglien and Cory Schneider for the afternoon matchup.
Byfuglien, part of the team’s original 16 named players, was expected to be a big part of the top pairing on this team and a weapon on the powerplay. As Tom Gulitti adds, Tortorella said just this week that he was excited about the Jets’ blueliner’s big shot. Instead, Erik Johnson will suit up as the team’s sixth defenseman.
- Tyler Seguin, who injured his foot this week in a pre-tournament match, is not expected to miss any training camp, as Mike Leslie of WFAA in Dallas reports. The hairline fracture that the Stars’ forward suffered is not serious enough to warrant him missing much time, and did not come as a surprise to the Dallas medical staff. Seguin was replaced by Ryan O’Reilly on Team Canada’s roster.
- In a new column from Helene Elliott of the LA Times, she examines how any success at the World Cup will give the NHL leverage in any Olympic negotiations down the road. With players and fans getting their international fix from the pre-season tournament, the league is not necessarily obligated to send players to the Winter Games, which usually causes an ugly stoppage mid-season, and prevents the league from hosting their all-star events. With the build up for the tournament being mixed, but overall fairly positive, it seems the league and NHLPA will have a strong bargaining chip to play to try and get a pay structure put in place for any player headed to the Olympics.