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Potential Compliance Buyout Candidates: Part II

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As the current Coronavirus crisis wears on, it seems more and more likely that the NHL will not return to action soon and when play resumes, it will almost certainly not be the full remaining regular season schedule. That lost revenue is expected to impact the 2020-21 salary cap, perhaps even keeping the current $81.5MM upper limit in place. Given that teams expected an increase, initially projected to be between $84-88.2MM, this stagnation could have a harsh impact on a number of clubs’ cap situations. As such, many expect that compliance buyouts will return in some form or fashion to ease that pain. These buyouts, which do not count against the salary cap, would allow for teams to open up space that they otherwise expected from a cap increase.

After taking a look at the first ten teams, we move on to the middle third of the NHL:

Detroit Red Wings: Justin Abdelkader

– When Abdelkader signed a seven-year extension with an AAV of $4.25MM following his career-best season in 2014-15, it was perceived to be a bargain at the time and few expected that it would turn out poorly. Yet, with three years still to go Abdelkader has failed to impress in each of the first four seasons, recording a total of just 78 points and consistently missing time due to injury. On a young rebuilding team, the 33-year-old forward’s slow, plodding game is not a fit and his salary is not commensurate to his role on the club. New GM Steve Yzerman wouldn’t hesitate to buy out the career Red Wing if given the opportunity.

Edmonton Oilers: James Neal

– Last summer’s swap of Neal for Milan Lucic was labeled as two teams exchanging bad contracts. However, Neal got off to a hot start and ended up with 19 goals and 31 points despite being limited to just 55 games due to injury. That being said, the 32-year-old forward, who was a -20 this season, is still probably the worst contract on the team. The likelihood of Neal playing up to his remaining $17.25MM over three years seems slim and the Oilers could use the cap space to add a younger, better winger. If Neal has earned the trust of the team, Kris Russell could be bought out before his final year at $4MM.

Florida Panthers: Sergei Bobrovsky

– Would the Panthers move on from Bobrovsky just one year after handing him a seven-year, $70MM deal? That could be the biggest question of the off-season if compliance buyouts become reality. The star goalie’s first season in Florida could not have gone worse as he posted a career-worst GAA and didn’t boast a shiny save percentage either. Expected to be the Cats’ savior in net, Bobrovsky was anything but. If they hesitate to cut ties with Bobrovsky and his play does not improve, he would undoubtedly become the worst contract in hockey. Though on the other hand, if Bobrovsky goes elsewhere and succeeds and Florida cannot find a suitable location, some would surely say that they didn’t give him enough of a chance.

Los Angeles Kings: Jonathan Quick

– The rebuilding Kings have been trying to move Quick for a couple of years now and it would be a surprise if they did not take advantage of a compliance buyout opportunity. A holdover contract from the days of yore, Quick’s ten-year, $58MM deal signed in 2012 remained a bargain for the first half of the term until Quick hit a wall last year. While his play rebounded this season, Quick is still not playing up to the all-world level that had become the norm. L.A. is still a ways away from contending and can make more use of extra cap space over the next three years than a goalie who is past his prime.

Minnesota Wild: Zach Parise

– The Wild and new GM Bill Guerin came awfully close to trading Parise at the deadline this season and in recent years players who have been rumored to be leaving Minnesota are always eventually dealt. However, the potential trade included the team taking back bad salaries to facilitate the movement of Parise’s remaining five years and $37.69MM. Although Parise showed a return to form somewhat over the past two years, he has never been able to replicate his numbers from earlier in career and the team has generally been unhappy with the results of their 13-year gamble. If the possibility to dump the 35-year-old Parise without any cap repercussions opened up, it would become a serious conversation. More interesting would be if the Wild also discuss Mats Zuccarello as a buyout candidate after he was a bust in the first of a five-year, $30MM deal.

Montreal Canadiens: Karl Alzner

– While there will be those that find some of the bigger names on Montreal as intriguing buyout candidates, Alzner seems like an obvious choice that will improve the roster without any risk of releasing a good player or upsetting team chemistry. Few players in recent history have had their team turn on them following a major contract as quickly as the Canadiens did with Alzner. After signing the physical defenseman as a top free agent in 2017, the Habs decided just a year later that he was not worthy of an NHL roster spot following a difficult first season. Alzner has played just 13 NHL games over the past two years, buried in the AHL for the remainder. With two years at $4.625MM remaining, Montreal would be happy to be completely rid of Alzner’s contract rather than receiving just minor saving from sending him to the minors instead.

Nashville Predators: Kyle Turris

– For a long time, Nashville GM David Poile was opposed to handing out expensive, long-term contracts. That policy served him well for quite a time, as the Predators ended up with a number of tremendous values on the roster. Since the team has started to move away from that practice, things have not gone so well. Turris is the poster boy for this statement. He signed a six-year, $36MM extension with Nashville not long after being acquired by the club early in the 2017-18 season and has never lived up to the expectations. His 54 total points over the past two years is less than the one-year total the season prior to his joining Nashville. Turris has become an expendable player, not only missing time due to injury but also as a healthy scratch. The team has been eager to move him and they likely wouldn’t hesitate to do so with a compliance buyout.

New Jersey Devils: Cory Schneider

– An overpaid, under-performing starting goalie is one thing; an overpaid, under-performing backup is another. It has been quite a time since Schneider was the top man in net in New Jersey and young Mackenzie Blackwood has now taken the reins. However, Schneider’s horrific numbers over the past two year suggest that he isn’t even capable of being an NHL backup at this point in his career. With two years remaining at $6MM, Schneider’s might be the worst goalie contract in the league and a rather obvious buyout candidate.

New York Islanders: Andrew Ladd

– Ladd, part of the infamous 2016 class of terrible free agent contracts, Ladd has never provided adequate value to the Islanders compared to his $5.5MM AAV. The team finally buried him in the AHL this season after recording just 71 points through his first three years. With the majority of their forwards signed to substantial long-term deals, there is almost no chance that Ladd can ever work his way back into the NHL mix for the Islanders. New York was ready to move him at the trade deadline and would be quick to buyout the final three years of his deal rather than continue to pay major money for him to play in the minors.

New York Rangers: Henrik Lundqvist

– While it would be a sad day for the Blueshirts and their fans, the reality is that Lundqvist is the best use of a compliance buyout on the team. New York was considering moving young Alexandar Georgiev at the deadline rather than continue to carry three goaltenders, as Igor Shesterkin looks like the starter of the future and King Henrik has become an immovable contract. However, the team would be far better off retaining both young goalies and moving on from Lundqvist, who at 38 years old had the worst season of his career and still has a season remaining at $8.5MM. That’s a hefty salary to pay the man who would be your third-string goalie next season if Georgiev is not moved. The Rangers have no shortage of options though if they cannot overcome the loyalty they feel toward Lundqvist. Defensemen Marc Staal, $5.7MM AAV, and Brendan Smith, $4.35MM AAV, have both outworn their welcomes in New York and would not be missed in the final years of their respective contracts.

Stay tuned for Part III coming soon.

Nashville Predators Extend Alexandre Carrier

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The Nashville Predators have handed out a multi-year contract extension to a player still unproven at the NHL level, signing Alexandre Carrier to a three-year deal. The two-way contract will kick in for the 2020-21 season, and carries an average annual value of $733K. Adam Vingan of The Athletic tweets the full breakdown:

  • 2020-21: $700K NHL/$125K AHL
  • 2021-22: $750K NHL/$175K AHL
  • 2022-23: $750K NHL/$200K AHL

Carrier, 23, was a fourth-round pick of the Predators in 2015 but quickly became one of the more interesting defensive prospects in their system. With seasons of 39, 28, 37 and 37 points, his offensive ability has never been contained at the minor league level, and his continued development in his own end makes him a potential candidate for an NHL job next season.

How he’ll perform at the higher level however is still completely undetermined, given that he has played in only five NHL games thus far in his career. The 6’0″ defenseman was set to become a restricted free agent this summer after his entry-level contract expired, but instead of taking a one-year qualifying offer to see how he might perform next season, Carrier will lock into the security of a three-year deal.

That kind of multi-year commitment is par for the course with Predators GM David Poile, who is always looking for ways to maximize value in young players. Should Carrier prove to be an NHL option he will actually come with a cap hit lower than the league minimum in 2021-22, when it increases to $750K.

Though technically this contract is currently scheduled to leave him an RFA again at its conclusion, if Carrier doesn’t receive a legitimate NHL opportunity over the next three years he would become a UFA instead. Should he fail to play in 77 more NHL games, he would qualify for Group VI UFA status as a 26-year old.

David Farrance Returning For Senior Season

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Boston University may have lost Cameron Crotty when he signed with the Arizona Coyotes earlier today, but they won’t be losing David Farrance. The Nashville Predators draft pick has decided not to turn pro and instead will return to BU for his senior season.

Farrance was recently named a Hobey Baker top-ten finalist as one of the best players in the country after leading all defenders in the nation with 43 points. He was named to the Hockey East First All-Star Team and looked more than ready to make the transition to professional hockey.

Notably, this decision also means that Farrance will be just a few months away from unrestricted free agency when his senior season ends. Though the Predators will still have a chance to sign him, it only puts more pressure on them as the young defenseman could just wait until the middle of August 2021 and have his pick of the litter. There would be many suitors for the two-way star, making his case one to watch very closely over the next year.

Poll: If The Season Ended Today, Who Would Win The Norris?

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With the NHL season getting suspended and little idea of when it may or may not resume, there are a lot of experts who are beginning to wonder if there is any point in bringing back the remainder of the regular season. Many feel it makes more sense that when the NHL is ready to return, the league should start immediately in playoff mode. If that’s the case and the regular season ended on Mar. 11, then who would win the Norris Trophy?

PHR has already conducted similar polls on the Calder Trophy, the Hart Trophy and the Vezina Trophy.

There are a number of interesting candidates for the top defenseman in the league, but it really falls to a two-man race between Washington Capitals’ John Carlson and Nashville Predators’ Roman Josi. Both players had dominant seasons with their respective teams.

The 30-year-old Carlson had a breakout year back in the 2017-18 season when he tallied 15 goals and 68 points, leading the Washington Capitals to their first Stanley Cup victory that year. He signed a long-term deal and duplicated another impressive season last year, boasting a 13-goal, 70-point season. However, what he’s done this year is nothing short of amazing with 15 goals and a career-high 75 points and that’s in just 69 games, averaging an impressive 1.17 points per game that would rank him among the top 10 in points-per-game for a defenseman over the last 30 years.

Josi, however, isn’t far behind. The Predators’ blueliner also had career highs in a (currently) shortened season. The 29-year-old has 16 goals and 65 points in 69 games and the Nashville Predators are a better team on shot suppression and save percentage when Josi is on the ice than Carlson.

While Carlson has the edge with offensive dominance, voters are expected to judge Norris candidates by their overall skill, which includes their defensive dominance, which is where Josi has the advantage who played even better on the defensive end of the ice when Nashville was without one of their other top blueliners in Ryan Ellis.

If you’re looking for a third option, the best candidate might be St. Louis Blues’ captain Alex Pietrangelo, who has had one of the best offensive performances of the season as well. The 30-year-old currently has career highs in goals and points with 16 goals and 52 points, which has propelled the Blues back into first place after a Stanley Cup victory.

So the question is, which defenseman should win the Norris Trophy if the season doesn’t continue?

For Pro Hockey app users, click here to vote.

Snapshots: Laviolette, Darling, AHL Signings

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It’s been quite a while since former Nashville Predators head coach Peter Laviolette has coached a game. The 55-year-old coach was fired by Nashville on Jan. 6 and was later hired to coach the U.S. at the World Championships which was cancelled on Mar. 21. However, the head coach has made it clear that he wants to return to the NHL coaching ranks as soon as possible, according to Adam Kimmelman of NHL.com.

The coach has gone back and looked at his successes behind the bench in hopes of improving as a coach.

“Right now, I think I’m just focused on going back to what I found has worked for me as a coach and go back to that,” Laviolette said. “I don’t have a team, I don’t have any players, but what I can focus on is what happens when I can go to a team and I can start to get involved with the players and the identity of the team and building that team, building the organization.”

  • Former NHL goaltender Scott Darling spent the 2019-20 season in Austria, quite a step down from the NHL after he was bought out by the Florida Panthers at the start of the season. While his team Innsbruck struggled last season, his numbers didn’t project those of a former NHL player as he finished with a 3.34 GAA and a .898 save percentage in 33 games. However, the 31-year-old, who played with the Chicago Blackhawks and Carolina Hurricanes, made it clear that his primary goal is to return to North America and resume his career there, even if that means signing an AHL deal and working his way up from there, according to John Dietz of the Daily Herald. “This pandemic has kind of sidetracked everything,” Darling said. “I was talking to some teams here. Ideally I’m going to try and play here next year, whether it be starting in the (AHL) or whatever.”
  • Two junior players signed their first professional contracts as the Toronto Marlies announced they have signed defenseman Noel Hoefenmayer and forward Jeremy McKenna to two-year AHL contracts. the 21-year-old Hoefenmayer was the biggest prize after leading all OHL defensemen in scoring last season with 26 goals and 82 points last season for the Ottawa 67s. Hoefenmayer was originally a fourth-round pick in 2017 by the Arizona Coyotes, but was never offered a contract by the Coyotes. McKenna scored 40 goals and 82 points with the Moncton Wildcats of the QMJHL this season. Both will join the Marlies next season, a team well-known for developing their minor league players.

Prospect Notes: Rasanen, Niemelainen, Berglund, Farrance, Harris

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There have been many international prospects over the years that have turned to the NCAA to try to help get ready for the NHL or bolster their chances of getting drafted.  There aren’t as many that have gone the other way but it appears that’s the case with Oilers prospect Aapeli Rasanen.  The 21-year-old recently wrapped up his junior year at Boston College but Jeff Cox of the New England Hockey Journal reports (Twitter link) that the forward has informed the team that he’s leaving and is returning to Finland to play professionally.  Rasanen grew up playing in the Tappara so it’s likely that he would rejoin that program.

  • Still with the Oilers, Sportsnet’s Mark Spector notes that Edmonton is hoping to sign defensemen Markus Niemelainen and Filip Berglund. Both players were draft picks in 2016 and have until June 1st to sign their entry-level deals.  Niemelainen played in 55 games with Assat Pori of the Finnish SM-liiga this season while Berglund suited up in 52 contests with SHL Skelleftea, his fourth straight year of being a regular in that league.  They’re also both under contract for next season already (Berglund for two more years) but both countries have a transfer agreement with the NHL so those deals shouldn’t get in the way.
  • Predators prospect David Farrance is coming off a very strong junior year with Boston University that saw him collect 14 goals and 29 assists in just 34 games. While it certainly seems as if he’s ready to turn pro, AHL reporter Mark Divver mentions (Twitter link) that the 20-year-old hasn’t yet decided whether or not to return for his senior season.  With Nashville’s back end being filled with low salary players, it’s quite possible that Farrance could immediately make the jump to the NHL like Dante Fabbro (a Boston University alum) recently did.
  • Canadiens prospect Jordan Harris has given a verbal commitment to return to Northeastern for his junior year, reports Sportsnet’s Eric Engels (Twitter link). Last month, GM Marc Bergevin mentioned the possibility that Harris could forego the rest of his college eligibility and turn pro but that doesn’t appear to be the plan.  Harris had 21 points in 33 games this season while chipping in with a goal in five games for Team USA at the World Juniors.

Tommy Novak Signs With Nashville Predators

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The Nashville Predators have rewarded a minor league forward for his hard work this season, signing Tommy Novak to a two-year entry-level contract. The 22-year old Novak spent the year with the Milwaukee Admirals on an AHL contract after finishing his career at the University of Minnesota and has now earned himself a big league deal. Nashville director of player development Scott Nichol explained exactly why the Predators signed Novak:

Tommy is a person who has earned everything that he’s been given. We’ve wanted him in our system for a long time – he signed an AHL deal with Milwaukee for this season and has had a fantastic year. We love his skillset, his hockey sense, how he makes plays and how he sees the ice so well. We’re excited to have him with us for the next couple of seasons and are looking forward to seeing him continue to grow and develop as a player.

Novak recorded 42 points in his rookie AHL season, impressive enough to obviously catch the eye of the Predators. Still just 22 until the end of April there may even be room for him to experience more improvement and be a contributor at the NHL level down the line. That’s still perhaps a distant dream, but getting an NHL contract was an important step towards it.

It’s not out of the question for a player that was originally drafted 85th overall back in 2015. If he does get to the NHL he’ll join Yakov Trenin, Anthony Richard and Alexandre Carrier as selections from that draft class that have played for Nashville, an impressive crop considering they were all drafted outside the top-50.

Connor Ingram Signs Three-Year Contract

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In classic David Poile fashion, the Nashville Predators have completed a multi-year extension with one of their much lesser-known players. Connor Ingram today has signed a three-year deal that carries an average annual value of just over $733K. The contract is two-way for both 2020-21 and 2021-22, before turning into a one-way contract in 2022-23.

Ingram, 22, came over to the Predators organization this season after a tumultuous tenure with the Tampa Bay Lightning and has posted a .933 save percentage in 33 AHL starts. Still waiting on his first NHL appearance, the third-round pick will have some safety and security with this new contract.

The deal also obviously has some expansion draft value for the Predators, who will almost surely be protecting Juuse Saros, but there is also real promise in Ingram as a future NHL option. While things didn’t work out in Tampa Bay it wasn’t because of his performance on the ice. Ingram has consistently posted strong results, only strengthening the scouting takes that had him as a top goaltending prospect in 2016.

With Pekka Rinne’s struggles this season, it’s hard to imagine the Predators extending him after his current contract ends after next season. At that point the franchise goaltender would be 38 and likely near the end of his career. Saros too will be a free agent in 2021, though he will be restricted and arbitration eligible. Locking up Ingram for the next several years at least gives them some stability at the position, even if he never does become a starting NHL option.

Stretch Run Storylines: Nashville Predators

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Central Division with Nashville.

It’s been an inconsistent season for the Nashville Predators, who many felt could challenge for the Central Division title this season. Instead, the team struggled out of the gate, which included a six-game losing streak in November and by early January, general manager David Poile made a decision to let go of long-time coach Peter Laviolette and associate coach Kevin McCarthy after the team had a 19-15-7 record. The team replaced him with recently fired coach John Hynes, who took over and saw the team fight its way back into the final wild card spot, but with continued inconsistent play and several teams breathing down their necks, the team will have to fight to remain in the playoffs.

Questionable Offense

When looking at the team’s top four point producers so far this year, the Nashville Predators have two defenseman in their top four, including defenseman Roman Josi, who leads the team in scoring by far with 65 points this season. That is fine when the team runs its offense through its defense. However, the team’s first line players, however, aren’t having great seasons, which has only made things more challenging.

While there is still plenty of time left, assuming the regular season resumes, Filip Forsberg looks to be heading for a career-low in goals. After never posting lower than 26 goals in his tenure with Nashville, the 25-year-old has just 21 goals and 48 points and still hasn’t been able to take his impressive game to that next level and develop into the star that many people had envisioned.

To make matters worse, Poile went out of his way to upgrade his defense by trading away P.K. Subban in the offseason and using that new-found money to sign center Matt Duchene to give the team a second dominant center. Duchene was expected to play the role of a major point producer after posting a 31-goal, 70-point season last year between Ottawa and Columbus. However, that hasn’t translated in his first year in Nashville as he has just 13 goals and 42 points through 66 games.

If Nashville wants to ensure a trip to the playoffs and maybe even surviving a round or two, the Predators must get more consistent play from their forwards. Even Viktor Arvidsson, who has averaged 30 goals for the three previous years has just 15 goals this season.

Goaltending Issues

A year ago, there were plenty of people that would have referred to the Predators’ goaltending tandem of Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros as one of the best in the league. However, that hasn’t been the case so far this year.

The 36-year-old Rinne started a new two-year, $10MM deal this season, but few expected a major drop-off after he posted a 2.42 GAA and a .918 save percentage in 56 appearances last year. Unfortunately for the Predators, those numbers took a nosedive. In 36 games this season, Rinne has a 3.17 GAA and a .895 save percentage, which has allowed Saros to take an even bigger role, while also leaving questions on how wise it was to give Rinne two more years.

After a slow start, Saros has been much more successful and has taken on the starting role, having appeared in 16 games since February.  The 27-year-old netminder has a pedestrian 2.70 GAA in 40 appearances (a career high), but also has a .914 save percentage, winning 10 of those appearances.

The team needs Saros to continue his conversion into the team’s everyday starter, but also needs to hope that the break rejuvenates Rinne, who the team needs to bounce back and take some of the responsibility off Saros.

Coaching Transition

Often when teams fire their coaches at midseason, like the Predators did with Laviolette in January, the team hopes the change will inspire the team to take their game up a notch and show they are as talented as management had assumed at the start of the season. So far Hynes has the team at 16-11-1, only a slight improvement, yet while the team has been inconsistent since Hynes has taken over, Nashville has three three-game and three two-game winning streaks this year.

One would have to imagine that the layoff could benefit Hynes more than anything as he has more time to study tape and adjust his coaching techniques and lines to improve the team when they get back on the ice.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Notes: Donovan, Svedberg, Leksands

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While Matt Donovan would undoubtedly rather remain under contract with the Nashville Predators, he will settle for staying in familiar territory and continuing his relationship with the organization. The Predators’ AHL affiliate, the Milwaukee Admirals, announced today that they had signed Donovan to a two-year AHL contract, an extension of sorts for the veteran defenseman. While Donovan only played in two games with Nashville last season and zero this season, he has been crucial piece for Milwaukee in both campaigns. An experienced two-way defenseman who has spent time in the New York Islanders organization as well as in Sweden and in the NCAA with the University of Denver, Donovan is known as a possession defenseman who can jump up into the play but can also be relied upon for physicality and defensive awareness. A top-pair defenseman for the Admirals, Donovan will continue to play a major role for the team while he sets his personal sights on playing his way back onto an NHL contract.

  • A move that flew under the radar recently – as fans hold out hope for a continued NHL season and are not thinking ahead to free agency just yet – is goaltender Niklas Svedberg resigning in Sweden. The 30-year-old netminder, and former member of the Boston Bruins and Minnesota Wild, was one of the best goalies in the SHL this season. Yet, despite what could be a weak goalie market this summer, Svedberg has opted to re-up with Djurgardens IF rather than test the NHL waters again. The team announced a new two-year deal with Svedberg, retaining one of their most valuable assets for a while longer. Svedberg would be 33 before he could have the chance to suit up once again in North America, which could mean that his NHL days are over. The talented keeper never quite found the right time to break into a consistent NHL role, despite strong numbers at both the NHL and AHL level – including an AHL All-Star nod in 2012-13 – as well as some stellar seasons in the KHL and SHL. It seems the veteran goalie is simply content to stay in his native country and continue to be one of Sweden’s best at his position.
  • Staying in Sweden, Leksands IF has a lot to look forward to as they have retained two young standouts in Alexander Lundqvist and Nils Aman. The team announced two-year contract extensions with both exciting young pieces, who each made their SHL debut this season. Lundqvist, 19, is the nephew of Hall of Fame defenseman Nicklas Lidstrom and a budding puck-moving defenseman in his own right. Undrafted in 2019, Lundqvist will be up for grabs again this year and should draw more attention following a 24-point campaign in the SuperElit and an eight-game stint in the SHL. At 6’2”, 183 lbs. and lauded skating ability, Lundqvist projects as a solid two-way defenseman and should step into a regular SHL role next year. Aman, 20, has a similar stature to Lundqvist but plays up front and has the numbers to prove it. Aman posted 47 points in 30 games in the SuperElit and made the most of his own eight-game stint in the SHL with three points. Aman looks ready for the top level and should slot into a consistent role next year as well. A youth movement could be coming to Leksands, who need all the help they can get after only missing the relegation game due to the league’s recent cancellation.

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