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Salary Cap Deep Dive 2020

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Toronto Maple Leafs

at CDT | by 1 Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Current Cap Hit: $84,543,578 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Alexander Barabanov (one year, $925K)
D Mikko Lehtonen (one year, $925K)
D Rasmus Sandin (two years, $894K)
F Nicholas Robertson (three years, $822K)

Potential Bonuses
None

The Toronto Maple Leafs have a history of bringing in European players in on entry-level contracts. Sometimes they work out and other times not. However, the team feels good about bringing in Lehtonen and Barbashev. The 27-year-old Lehtonen is coming off a dominant season in the KHL last season with Jokerit where he scored 17 goals and 49 points in his first season there. His offense could come in handy as he already has three points in just five games. The 26-year-od Barabanov has also proved to be a useful depth piece after five full seasons in the KHL. Both should provide good production for what they’re being paid.

The 20-year-old Sandin has worked his way up the depth chart and is knocking on the door of Toronto’s defense. Sandin did get into 28 games with the Maple Leafs last season and likely will get another opportunity at some point this season and should be an eventual full-time player for Toronto in the future. Robertson also has shown flashes of brilliance and despite his knee injury has a bright future ahead of him that could come at some point later this season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Frederik Andersen ($5MM, UFA)
F Zach Hyman ($2.25MM, UFA)
F Wayne Simmonds ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Zach Bogosian ($1MM, UFA)
F Jimmy Vesey ($900K, UFA)
D Travis Dermott ($874K, RFA)
F Nic Petan ($775K, RFA)
F Joe Thornton ($700K, UFA)
F Jason Spezza ($700K, UFA)
F Travis Boyd ($700K, UFA)

The Maple Leafs will have an interesting decision to make in net during the offseason as Andersen’s contract will be up and the team has not indicated any willingness to discuss an extension at this point. In fact, the team had been looking to potentially move Andersen to upgrade in net instead last offseason with no luck. The 31-year-old who had been quite consistent over the years in Toronto, didn’t have as strong of a season, posting a .909 save percentage, significantly lower than his career number (.916). Of course the defense behind him wasn’t much better, which could explain that, but it will be interesting if the team brings Andersen back next year. Hyman could be another interesting decision for GM Kyle Dubas. The 28-year-old has posted two 20-goal seasons and is a favorite among players, but with serious salary cap implications it will deal with over the next few years, Hyman might be a luxury the team cannot afford.

One thing the Maple Leafs focused on in the offseason with improving the team’s depth and they did that, signing a bunch of players to one-year deals, including Simmonds, Thornton, Bogosian, Vesey. The team brought back Spezza as well for another year in hopes that they could improve the depth and experience level in their bottom six, although some of them like Simmonds and Thornton might get a crack at even bigger roles. Dermott will also require some tough negotiations as the RFA will want a raise next season.

Two Years Remaining

D Morgan Rielly ($5MM, UFA)
F Ilya Mikheyev ($1.65MM, UFA)
G Jack Campbell ($1.65MM, UFA)
F Pierre Engvall ($1.25MM, RFA)
F Adam Brooks ($725K, RFA)
G Michael Hutchinson ($725K, UFA)

The most interesting player is Rielly, who leads the team in ATOI with 23:47. He has been the team’s No. 1 defenseman for years and will be 28 years old when his contract runs out, which suggests the blueliner could be in line for quite a big raise at some point. Rielly should bounce back to his old offensive ways this year. He tallied 20 goals and 71 points in 2018-19, but injuries kept him to 47 games and just 27 points. A big season this year should begin to step up talks of signing him to an extension in as soon as a year.

Mikheyev is one of the success stories for general manager Kyle Dubas as the 26-year-old came over from the KHL and posted impressive numbers, scoring eight goals and 23 points in 39 games despite suffering a significant injury in the middle of the season. The forward is expected to play a bigger role for the Maple Leafs this year after signing a two-year extension and could be in line for an even bigger contract down the road if he can put his game together and maybe step into a top-six role at some point.

Campbell has fared quite well since being acquired by the Maple Leafs to be the team’s backup and should continue to do so for the next couple of years. However, the 29-year-old has only appeared in eight games since the trade, meaning the team hasn’t shown that much confidence in him. Regardless, he’s been solid in the limited time he’s played.

Three Years Remaining

F Alexander Kerfoot ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Justin Holl ($2MM, UFA)

The Maple Leafs brought in Kerfoot as part of the Nazem Kadri deal with Colorado and were hoping that the young center might take control of their third line and establish a dominant line. Three days after the trade, Toronto handed him a four-year, $14MM contract, but the 26-year-old struggled in his first season with the team. After scoring 34 goals in his first two seasons with Colorado, Kerfoot managed just nine goals and 28 points, career lows and struggled. The team has to hope that Kerfoot can find his way, considering the money the team spent on him and the constant cap problems.

Holl, on the other hand, has been a revelation to the team. He struggled to work his way into Toronto’s lineup in the past, but finally earned a regular role last season and has forced his way into the team’s top-four this year. Holl provides both the team with a well-rounded player who could be in line for a big contract down the road if he can continue to produce for the team. However, at $2MM per year, he is currently under a great contract.Read more

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Tampa Bay Lightning

at CDT | by 1 Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Current Cap Hit: $98,785,916 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Callan Foote (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Foote: $500K

Championship teams often don’t have many entry-level contracts and the Tampa Bay Lightning are no different. The team does have Foote ready to step into the lineup after the team moved on from Brayden Coburn and the rookie has taken a third-pairing role for the team and likely will play sheltered minutes for most of the season even if he did already score a goal in just four games this season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Marian Gaborik ($4.88MM, UFA)
G Anders Nilsson ($2.6MM, UFA)
F Blake Coleman ($1.8MM, UFA)
G Curtis McElhinney ($1.3MM, UFA)
F Barclay Goodrow ($925K, UFA)
D Luke Schenn ($800K, UFA)
F Alexander Volkov ($700K, RFA)
F Gemel Smith ($700K, UFA)
D Andreas Borgman ($700K, RFA)

The Lightning is using its cap space wisely, taking advantage of several injured players and going out and acquiring several other contracts of players on LTIR to maximize their cap space. The contracts of Gaborik and Nilsson will help the team for cap purposes, but will also expire next season for the team. The Lightning also made a couple savvy deals at the trade deadline last year when acquiring Coleman and Goodrow in separate deals. Not only did each player make big contributions during the team’s championship run, but both are still on affordable contracts for this year. The question will be whether Tampa Bay can bring one or both of them back for next season.

The team also has 37-year-old backup netminder in McElhinney. The veteran has been out for the start of the season, but it is believed he’ll be back soon and should be quite reliable. McElhinney had a .906 save percentage in 18 games and should help the team for this year. The team may opt to go in a different direction for 2021-22. Schenn is another key depth piece for the Lightning.

Two Years Remaining

F Brayden Point ($6.75MM, RFA)
F Ondrej Palat ($5.3MM, UFA)
D Jan Rutta ($1.3MM, UFA)
F Pat Maroon ($900K, UFA)
F Mathieu Joseph ($738K, RFA)
F Mitchell Stephens ($738K, RFA)

The team has a number of players signed long-term, but the team has a few other key players they might want to lock up. One player will be Point who has taken his game to a whole new level in the last couple of years. The 24-year-old scored 32 goals in 2017-18; 41 in 2018-19; 25 in 66 games last year and has established himself as a first-line player. He will be eligible for an extension at the end of this season and it will be interesting if Tampa Bay gives him a long-term deal then.

While Palat’s contract looked questionable a year ago when injuries were significant issues, Palat had an impressive year last year, putting up 17 goals and 41 points and was an essential top-six player for him. Maroon and Rutta both have been essential depth options for the Lightning, while Joseph and Stephens have taken significant roles on their fourth-line after splitting time between the AHL and NHL last year.

Three Years Remaining

F Anthony Cirelli ($4.8MM, RFA)
D Mikhail Sergachev ($4.8MM, RFA)
F Alex Killorn ($4.45MM, UFA)
D Erik Cernak ($2.95MM, RFA)

With three key restricted free agents during the offseason, Tampa Bay finally was able to get all three under contract, signing them to three-year bridge deals. Cirelli, Sergachev and Cernak are critical players to the team and the team can get three years out of them before having to figure out the complexities of their cap situation at that point. The 23-year-old Cirelli had 16 goals and a career-high 28 assists in 68 games last season. The 22-year-old Sergachev worked his way into the team’s top-four on defense and had a career-high 10 goals last season. Cernak, 23, had a second straight solid season as a top-four defenseman, including 172 hits last year. The Lightning might be forced to move one of them down the road, but they are certainly locked in for the near future.

Killorn is the only player who will be an unrestricted free agent in three years. The 31-year-old had a breakout season last year with career highs in goals (26) and points (49).Read more

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Ottawa Senators

at CDT | by 1 Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Ottawa Senators

Current Cap Hit: $70,678,775 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Drake Batherson (one year, $736K)
D Erik Brannstrom (two years, $863K)
F Logan Brown (one year, $863K
F Joshua Norris (two years, $925K)
F Tim Stutzle (three years, $925K)
F Brady Tkachuk (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Batherson: $20K
Brannstrom: $450K
Brown: $710K
Norris: $850K
Stutzle: $2.5MM
Tkachuk: $2.5MM
Total: $7.03MM

The way Ottawa’s cap situation is structured, there is going to be a prominent player coming off an ELC on an annual basis which, from a long-term planning standpoint, is a good way to stagger things.  Tkachuk then becomes the one to watch for in the coming months as he’s eligible for an extension now.  He’s not near the top of the scoring charts but power forwards tend to get paid quickly which makes his case intriguing.  The Sens have tried to bypass bridge contracts with the players they perceive to be long-term core assets and Tkachuk is certainly in that category but unless he has a breakout year offensively, it may be in his best interest to go the more traditional route and take a short-term pact with the hopes of cashing in with a higher payday down the road.

Stutzle is one of just two players from October’s draft class to make the jump to the NHL and the early returns have been promising.  While he’s just three games into his NHL career, it seems likely that Ottawa’s intent will be to lock him up long-term as soon as his deal expires.  Norris dominated in the AHL last season and has gotten off to a good start this year with the Sens so again, he’s one that they will likely try to sign to a long-term deal.  While this is still a couple of years away (and three for Stutzle), their ability (or inability) to get these long-term pacts done will greatly affect their plans for eventually bolstering their roster with impactful veterans.  As for Batherson, he looks like he has made it as a regular for now but it’s hard to see them going long-term with him just yet.  Instead, a one-year deal around double his AAV or a two-year pact at a bit more makes more sense.  Brown and Brannstrom haven’t seen NHL action yet this season but that should change.  They’ll need to see if Brown is a part of that future core while Brannstrom is one of the defensemen they’re intending to build around.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Artem Anisimov ($4.55MM, UFA)
D Braydon Coburn ($1.7MM, UFA)
F Alex Galchenyuk ($1.05MM, UFA)
D Erik Gudbranson ($4MM, UFA)
G Marcus Hogberg ($700K, RFA)
F Cedric Paquette ($1.65MM, UFA)
D Mike Reilly ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Derek Stepan ($6.5MM, UFA)
D Christian Wolanin ($900K, RFA)

Stepan’s acquisition in training camp was curious, both in the sense that Ottawa didn’t necessarily need a veteran while they gave up a second-round pick and alleviated Arizona’s cap concerns.  He’s not an impact player at this stage of his career although he can still play in the middle six.  At this point, he seems like a good trade candidate with some cap hit retention but he may be hard-pressed to get half of his AAV on the open market this summer.  Anisimov was another cap dump and has a limited role with the Sens.  Again, he’s a trade candidate if Ottawa is willing to eat money and his next contract in free agency will be a lot less than this one.  Paquette was yet another pickup from a team clearing money and his price tag is a bit high for a fourth liner but even so, he should have enough interest on the open market to come close to his current deal.  Galchenyuk was signed as a reclamation project and while it made a lot of sense at the time, he has struggled to get in the lineup so far which isn’t a great start.

Three of the four defensemen on this list were also brought in through teams freeing up cap room.  Gudbranson, an Ottawa native, can still hold his own in a limited role but he’s being paid top-four money.  Something around half the price tag (or perhaps a bit more) should be doable in free agency.  Coburn’s role has lessened in recent years and he is best served as a sixth or seventh defender.  He’ll be eligible for an incentive-laden deal in July but will need to take a low base salary.  Reilly has shown flashes of upside going back to his time with Minnesota but he hasn’t been able to establish himself as a regular.  If that continues, he will likely be facing a small dip as well.  Wolanin, the lone home-grown blueliner in this section, is a player who has basically been on the fringes in recent years and as such, can’t be expected to command much more than his qualifying offer.

Hogberg is in his first full NHL season so he won’t have a long enough record to command a long-term deal.  Having said that, this is his final RFA-eligible campaign so a two-year deal with an AAV around the $1.75MM range is one that could make some sense for both sides, assuming he plays well this year.

Two Years Remaining

D Josh Brown ($1.2MM, UFA)
F Nick Paul ($1.35MM, UFA)
F Chris Tierney ($3.5MM, UFA)

Tierney was more of a throw-in in the Erik Karlsson trade but responded with two strong seasons with Ottawa, earning himself a raise this summer.  He almost certainly isn’t in their long-term plans but this is a fair price tag for a middle-six center who has hovered near the 0.5 point per game mark in each of the last three seasons.  Paul worked his way into a regular role last season and earned himself a bit of security as a result.  If he’s a late-bloomer, this could wind up being a team-friendly contract but even if not, he won’t need to produce a whole lot to live up to it.  Given his physicality, he could be highly sought after if his output continues to improve.

Brown was brought in from Florida as Ottawa looked to reshape their defensive depth.  He’s still a number six option most nights and while the Senators can afford to pay him that right now, that’s a position that they will need to go cheaper on as some of their entry-level players land richer second contracts.

Three Years Remaining

F Connor Brown ($3.6MM, UFA)
F Evgenii Dadonov ($5MM, UFA)
F Austin Watson ($1.5MM, UFA)

While most wingers were hit hard in free agency, Dadonov did pretty well for himself, earning a $1MM increase in his AAV while getting three years when multiple options wound up settling for just one.  His role should decrease as their youngsters improve but even so, they should get good value out of this deal.  Brown has been the beneficiary of a lack of depth on the wing, permitting him to have a career year last season despite it being shortened.  It’s unlikely he’ll get back to those offensive levels again (in part thanks to Dadonov) but he does enough other things that should help offset a drop in production.  Watson was brought in to give them a boost physically but he has shown some flashes of offensive upside in the past.  He might have a hard time getting this on the open market next summer if he was a free agent but it’s not much of an overpriced contract either way.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Montreal Canadiens

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Montreal Canadiens

Current Cap Hit: $81,454,506 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Jesperi Kotkaniemi (one year, $925K)
F Ryan Poehling (one year, $925K)
D Alexander Romanov (two years, $894K)
F Nick Suzuki (two years, $863K)
F Cale Fleury (one year, $772K)

Potential Bonuses
Kotkaniemi: $2.5MM
Poehling $850K
Suzuki: $425K
Romanov: $213K
Fleury: $20K

What makes the Canadiens team so strong is the impressive play down the middle from two top young players in Suzuki and Kotkaniemi who are both expected to play big roles this season. The 21-year-old Suzuki had an impressive rookie season, scoring 13 goals and 41 points and more importantly four goals in 10 playoff games last year. He has picked up where he left off, posting six points in six games early this season. Kotkaniemi did struggle last year in his sophomore campaign, but looked more impressive in the playoffs with four goals in 10 games. He has three points in six games so far this year, but both look to have bright futures in Montreal.

The team also looks to have drafted a gem in Romanov, who was a second-round pick in 2018. The 20-year-old looks like an impact player already after just six games on the ice and looks to play a big part in the future of Montreal’s defense. Poehling and Fleury are still trying to establish themselves in Montreal’s lineup, but should have a role down the road.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Tomas Tatar ($4.8MM, UFA)
F Phillip Danault ($3.08MM, UFA)
F Joel Armia ($2.6MM, UFA)
F Artturi Lehkonen ($2.4MM, RFA)
F Jordan Weal ($1.4MM, UFA)
F Corey Perry ($750K, UFA)
F Michael Frolik ($750K, UFA)
D Victor Mete ($735K, RFA)

The team will have to make a decision on Tatar, who has scored 50 goals in two-plus seasons since being acquired from Vegas in the Max Pacioretty deal (Suzuki was also part of that deal too). The 30-year-old will see his contract expire and the Canadiens will have to decide on whether they want to extend him for a few more seasons or let him go. However, after posting a 22-goal, 61-point season last year, the team may not want to allow him to leave.

Montreal will also have to make similar decisions on several other forwards, including Danault and Armia. All three have been quite useful to the team over the years, but must prove their worth this season. Despite being a valuable middle-six center, the team hasn’t begun discussing any extension with the 27-year-old center, especially with the emergence of both Suzuki and Kotkaniemi. Armia could be primed for a big year despite struggling with injuries the last few seasons.

Lehkonen and Mete will both be restricted free agents next year and should receive extensions.

Two Years Remaining

D Ben Chiarot ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Brett Kulak ($1.85MM, UFA)
F Jake Evans ($750K, RFA)

Many people seemed surprised when Montreal grabbed Chiarot off of the free-agent market after the 2018-19 season and handed him a three-year, $10.5MM deal. The blueliner had been a third-pairing piece in Winnipeg, but has blossomed into a solid top-four defenseman, who is averaging more than 20 minutes per game. Evans has slowly forced his way into the lineup as a solid bottom-six player, who can provide some physicality and a little offense and should become a regular for the team over the next few years.

Three Years Remaining

F Jonathan Drouin ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Paul Byron ($3.4MM, UFA)
G Jake Allen ($2.88MM, UFA)

Drouin was brought in three years ago to be the team’s leading scorer and maybe even the face of the franchise. Despite being one of the top young forwards in the game, his numbers haven’t translated very well as he’s never duplicated the 21-goal season he had in Tampa Bay back in 2016-17. Of course, injuries have been one of the biggest culprits, but Drouin is only 25 and can still be an impact player. So far, he has six points in his first six games, so the team has to hope that the long-term deal they gave him might still pay off down the road.

Byron has been one of the biggest disappointments as injuries have played a major role in his availability over the last two seasons. The 31-year-old has missed 79 games over the previous two seasons and a player who looked to be a solid 20-goal scorer when he signed his four-year, $13.6MM deal back in 2018, has scored 19 goals since signing that contract and still has two more years after this year at a $3.4MM AAV. Allen is another interesting player, who looks to be the perfect complimentary backup netminder as the Canadiens have to start thinking about spreading out the goaltending workload.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Florida Panthers

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Florida Panthers

Current Cap Hit: $78,081,662 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Eetu Luostarinen (two years, $898K)
D Riley Stillman (one year, $773K)
F Owen Tippett (two years, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Tippett: $850K

Luostarinen somewhat surprisingly made the team out of training camp and has made an early impact on the third line.  If he’s able to hold down that spot for this season and into next, he’ll be in a good spot for a small raise but it’s far too early to forecast that.  Tippett had a decent first pro season, one that was mostly spent in the minors.  Like Luostarinen, there’s a definite path to a raise at the end of his deal but he will need to show that he’s capable of being a full-time player first.

Stillman established himself as a regular in the second half of last season but some of the defensive additions and his waiver exemption could work against him. If he winds up being shuffled to and from the taxi squad (where he currently sits), he’ll go from someone that could get a two-year deal at a small raise to one that will likely be settling for close to his qualifying offer.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Chris Driedger ($850K, UFA)
F Anthony Duclair ($1.7MM, RFA)
D Gustav Forsling ($700K, RFA)
F Vinnie Hinostroza ($1MM, UFA)
D Noah Juulsen ($700K, RFA)
F Alexander Wennberg ($2.25MM, UFA)

Wennberg was bought out by Columbus after a third straight tough season with Columbus but did relatively well for himself on the open market compared to others who suffered a similar fate.  He’s still young enough where a bounce-back season could help position him for a multi-year deal with a raise – likely not as much as he was getting on his last deal ($4.9MM) but an increase nonetheless.  Duclair leaving Ottawa was one of the bigger surprises after the Sens didn’t want to risk an arbitration hearing.  The winger had to settle for less than expected and with him being arbitration-eligible again, he may be more inclined to agree to a deal to avoid unrestricted free agency next summer.  Hinostroza showed flashes of offensive upside with Arizona but his arbitration eligibility hurt him as he was instead non-tendered in October.  He’s in a spot where if he can work his way up the lineup a bit, he’ll position himself for a small increase but otherwise, he’ll stay around this salary level.

Forsling and Juulsen were both added off waivers in training camp.  While Forsling has a reasonable amount of NHL experience, he’s someone that is going to hang around the minimum salary until he can establish himself as a regular.  As for Juulsen, injuries have cost him nearly two years of development.  It will be hard for him to step into a regular role which will have him in line for a minimal raise at most this summer.

Driedger had been a career minor leaguer until last year where he played quite well, albeit in a limited sample size of just a dozen appearances.  That gave him the backup spot heading into this season, his first real opportunity.  Even in a shortened year, a decent showing could have him double his AAV given the higher demand for backups in recent seasons.

Two Years Remaining

F Noel Acciari ($1.67MM, UFA)
F Aleksander Barkov ($5.9MM, UFA)
F Ryan Lomberg ($725K, UFA)
D Markus Nutivaara ($2.7MM, UFA)
D Anton Stralman ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Frank Vatrano ($2.533MM, UFA)
F Carter Verhaeghe ($1MM, UFA)

Barkov’s situation has come in recent days when it was revealed that teams were calling to inquire if he may be available; those were quickly rebuffed by GM Bill Zito.  Still, it suggested that the perception around the league may be that they think it’s unlikely that Florida’s franchise center will opt to sign an extension when this deal expires.  The Panthers have benefitted from being at a well below-market rate for several years now and it stands to reason that he’ll jump past the $10MM mark on his next contract given his elite two-way game and the fact he’d be hitting the open market at the age of 26 in the prime of his career.  He’ll immediately jump to the top of the UFA class for 2022 if he makes it that far.

Vatrano had a career year in his first full season with Florida after coming over from Boston, allowing him to get this deal which nearly tripled his previous AAV.  He followed that up with an improved 2019-20 campaign and while that normally would mean another raise would be in his future, what happened to middle-six wingers in free agency makes that outcome a bit less likely.  Even with a deflated market, a dip would be minimal though.  Acciari was one of the more surprising 20-goal scorers last season (his first after joining them from the Bruins) as he’d had just 18 in his entire career before then.  If it is indeed a sign of things to come, he’ll be well-positioned in free agency as the fact he can play down the middle would bolster his value.  If he goes back to being more of a checker though, he could be looking at a small cut.  Verhaeghe is an interesting pickup.  He has played heavy minutes in the early going and done well.  It’s obviously still early but Florida is hoping it could be another Jonathan Marchessault situation where the player leaves Tampa Bay and with a bigger opportunity, becomes a key player.  Verhaeghe, meanwhile, is hoping such a scenario would lead to a top-six payday, much like Marchessault got.  Lomberg is filling a depth role, one that should stay at a similar price point down the road.

Stralman was brought in to try to solidify Florida’s defense a year ago and that simply didn’t happen.  He didn’t have an overly poor season but it was a quiet year and their defensive issues persisted.  His next deal will carry 35-plus caveats so he’ll likely be going year-to-year moving forward, likely at a considerably lower salary as well.  Nutivaara was brought in from Columbus to bolster their third pairing.  He has a high price tag for someone that’s ideally a number six option though with their cap room, it’s a premium they can easily afford.

Three Years Remaining

F Brett Connolly ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Radko Gudas ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Patric Hornqvist ($5.3MM, UFA)
F Jonathan Huberdeau ($5.9MM, UFA)
D MacKenzie Weegar ($3.25MM, UFA)
D Keith Yandle ($6.35MM, UFA)

Huberdeau has turned into another bargain for the Panthers, providing top-line production for a second-line price tag.  Free agency wasn’t kind to wingers this offseason but that should change by the time he hits the open market which should have him in a spot to add another couple of million to his AAV.  Hornqvist was brought in to give them some more grit up front but he’s on the downswing of his career (despite the hot start this season) and his style of play has left him susceptible to injuries in recent years.  That combination makes it likely that his next deal (which also will be a 35-plus pact) will be a much smaller one.  Connolly did relatively well in his first season with Florida with 33 points.  It’s an above-market contract based on the most recent free agent market but they should still get a good return if he can stay around that point range.

Yandle’s situation has been well-documented.  After it looked like he’d be a healthy scratch, he has played in both games so far, albeit in a more limited role and actually has recorded points in each of them.  Nevertheless, it’s clear that it’s a contract they wouldn’t mind not having on the books but in this market, finding a taker will be tricky.  Weegar has worked his way up from a role player to a top-four piece and that price tag for that role is a below-market one.  Is he a top-four option if he wasn’t in Florida?  That is debatable but as long as their back end stays as is, they’ll get a good return on this contract.  Gudas was also brought in to reshape their third pairing with Florida paying a premium in terms of salary and probably term as well for his physicality.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Detroit Red Wings

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Detroit Red Wings

Current Cap Hit: $73,886,389 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Mathias Brome (one year, $925K)
D Moritz Seider (three years, $894K)
F Filip Zadina (two years, $894K)
F Michael Rasmussen (one year, $894K)
D Dennis Cholowski (one year, $894K)
D Gustav Lindstrom (one year, $775K)
D Filip Hronek (one year, $714K)
F Givani Smith (one year, $714K)

Potential Bonuses
Zadina: $850K
Rasmussen: $850K
Seider: $850K
Brome: $213K
Hronek: $158K
Smith: $158K
Lindstrom: $133K
Total: $3.21MM

The one thing that Detroit has plenty of is young talent on entry-level contracts. While not all of them have earned full-time roles on the team yet, others are ready to step in order to try and earn a bigger role. Currently, only Zadina and Hronek have earned full-time roles. Zadina earned a full-time role late in the season last year as he posted eight goals and has worked his way onto the second line to start the season. Hronek has been the team’s top defenseman for quite some time already and has already developed into an impressive blueliner.

Seider is an interesting case. The blueliner was originally expected to be at training camp, but with the long delay in the season, the team instead loaned him to the SHL for the entire season where he is flourishing. However, once the SHL season is over, Seider is likely to arrive in Detroit and take over a full-time role in a few months and could quickly become the team’s top defenseman.

Brome has impressed after signing a one-year deal, while Rasmussen, Smith, Cholowski and Lindstrom are currently on the taxi squad, hoping to work their way into the lineup as the year goes.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Henrik Zetterberg ($6.08MM, UFA)
F Marc Staal ($5.7MM, UFA)
F Darren Helm ($3.88MM, UFA)
F Tyler Bertuzzi ($3.5MM, RFA)
F Valtteri Filppula ($3MM, UFA)
D Patrik Nemeth ($3MM, UFA)
G Jonathan Bernier ($3MM, UFA)
F Luke Glendening ($1.8MM, UFA)
F Bobby Ryan ($1MM, UFA)
D Christian Djoos ($1MM, RFA)
F Adam Erne ($998K, RFA)
D Jonathon Merrill ($925K, UFA)
D Alex Biega ($875K, UFA)
F Sam Gagner ($850K, UFA)

The Detroit Red Wings have taken advantage of the fact that they are quite a bit under the cap and that likely won’t change next year as several of those old, long-term deals are about to expire next season, including those of Zetterberg, Staal, Helm and Glendening amongst others. That should give the team even more advantages down the road and could make them players in free agency if they think they are closer to competing.

Bertuzzi is in line for a bigger deal as well. The RFA signed a one-year bridge deal, but if the first-line winger can put up big numbers once again, he could be in line for a significant raise. Bertuzzi has scored 21 goals in each of the past two seasons and has developed into a go-to scorer for the team. Bernier has been solid since signing last offseason. Despite being on a team with a weak defense, Bernier appeared in 46 games and still somehow maintained a .907 save percentage, making him a solid tandem-pairing goaltender.

Detroit and general manager Steve Yzerman have also invested in veteran players who can help the team develop and avoid finishing dead last again. Players like Ryan, Filppula, Merrill, Erne and Gagner all will have to prove themselves if they want to return next year.

Two Years Remaining

F Frans Nielsen ($5.25MM, UFA)
D Danny DeKeyser ($5MM, UFA)
G Thomas Greiss ($3.6MM, UFA)
F Robby Fabbri ($2.95MM, UFA)
F Vladislav Namestnikov ($2MM, UFA)
D Troy Stecher ($1.7MM, UFA)

If you think the team will start accruing serious cap space in two years, you’re mistaken. The team has a number of other contracts that will come off the books in two years, including those of Nielsen and DeKeyser. Nielsen was once a big scorer in Detroit, but potted just four goals in 60 games last season and could slowly be worked out of the lineup as younger players prove they are ready. DeKeyser does have a more significant role with the team, but injuries have derailed his career the last few years. He will have to really step up his game to get any kind of an extension down the road.

The team has high expectations for Fabbri, who the team acquired midseason last year at a cheap price. He then took his game up a notch, posting 14 goals and 31 points in 52 games. The 24-year-old has now moved onto the second line as he is focusing on moving back to the center position. If he can keep it up, he might be able to reach the promise that he had when he was first drafted.

Yzerman invested in several one-year deals during the offseason, but also went out of his way to bring in a few significant players on two-year deals as well. The team is hoping that Greiss can pick up where he left off last year with the Islanders and be the perfect complement to Bernier in net. Greiss posted a .913 save percentage in 31 games last season and should be a solid presence in net for Detroit this season. Namestnikov has also proven to be a solid middle-six player, who can play almost anywhere in the lineup. Stecher also has proven to be a player that the Red Wings can use to help out in second and third pairing options to bolster its defense.

Three Years Remaining

F Dylan Larkin ($6.1MM, UFA)

There isn’t many long-term deals already in the books, but the team still has three more years of Larkin, the team captain, at a reasonable salary. The deal looked even better two years ago when he put up 32 goals and 73 points. Unfortunately, those numbers dipped a bit last season as he scored just 19 goals and 53 points in just five less games. Detroit has to hope that Larkin can get back to his 2018-19 numbers with improved play at his wings and a team that isn’t mired in a horrendous season. Regardless, Larkin is the face of the franchise and, at just 24 years of age, should continue to get better and better over the next few years.Read more

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Buffalo Sabres

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Buffalo Sabres

Current Cap Hit: $79,614,282 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Dylan Cozens (three years, $894K)
D Rasmus Dahlin (one year, $925K)
D Henri Jokiharju (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Cozens: $850K
Dahlin: $2.85MM
Jokiharju: $637.5K
Total: $4.3375MM

Cozens made the team despite a shortened training camp due to him playing at the World Juniors where he was one of the top performers in the tournament.  He isn’t eligible to play in the AHL whenever the WHL gets underway so a decision will have to be made in a few weeks as to whether or not to burn the first year of his entry-level deal.  The threshold has been cut to seven games meaning that if Cozens plays in that seventh contest, his contract officially burns a year.

Dahlin hasn’t been the flashiest player since being taken first overall in 2018 but he has already established himself as an important part of their back end and a player they’ll want to build around.  Discussions surrounding a long-term deal would likely use Florida’s Aaron Ekblad ($7.5MM AAV for eight years) as a potential comparable and with the flexibility that they’re about to have on the cap, they can easily afford to go that route if they want.  As for Jokiharju, he played a regular role on the third pairing after being acquired from Chicago.  Unless he’s able to jump into their top four though, a short-term contract makes the most sense and without arbitration eligibility, he shouldn’t be able to command a sizable raise.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Taylor Hall ($8MM, UFA)
G Carter Hutton ($2.75MM, UFA)
D Matt Irwin ($700K, UFA)
D Jake McCabe ($2.85MM, UFA)
D Brandon Montour ($3.85MM, UFA)
F Sam Reinhart ($5.2MM, RFA)
F Tobias Rieder ($700K, UFA)
F Riley Sheahan ($700K, UFA)
F Eric Staal ($3.25MM, UFA)
G Linus Ullmark ($2.6MM, UFA)

The Sabres made a big splash in free agency by getting Hall to sign with them.  It was a surprise on multiple fronts in that a non-playoff team landed him and that it was just for one year although the state of the UFA market helped push his fate in that direction fairly quickly.  He’ll get a chance to rebuild his value a little bit in the hopes of getting a similar price tag on a long-term deal this summer but with many teams trending to tight to the cap for next year as well, a contract similar to this one can’t be ruled out either.  Staal was brought in from Minnesota in the offseason and is coming off a solid season.  He’s slowing down but as long as he can produce like a second-liner, there’s a spot for him around his current price tag.  Rieder and Sheahan are both depth players and will either be retained or replaced by others making the minimum.

Reinhart’s situation largely has flown under the radar due to Hall but it’s reaching the point where a decision is going to need to be made.  Instead of inking a long-term deal this past offseason, Reinhart and the Sabres opted for a one-year deal, giving him another crack at restricted free agency with arbitration eligibility in the summer.  However, he’s now only one year away from UFA eligibility so if talks on a long-term deal don’t go well, he can easily just file for arbitration, get his one-year contract, and hit the open market in the prime of his career.  They’ve kicked the can as far as they can and GM Kevyn Adams will need to get a long-term agreement in place with Reinhart this offseason.

Montour was a speculative non-tender candidate after a tough first full season with the Sabres although he wound up accepting a small raise that walks him to UFA eligibility.  But if he doesn’t show the promise that he did in his time with Anaheim, he’ll be hard-pressed to receive his current salary on the open market.  McCabe has seen a lot of second pairing playing time in recent years and has held his own although he’s better used as a fifth option.  While he doesn’t produce much offensively, he’s still fairly young and it wouldn’t be surprising if he winds up with a deal around what Joel Edmundson signed to avoid hitting the open market with Montreal, a multi-year deal in the $3.5MM range.  Irwin has been at or near the minimum for a few years now and that’s unlikely to change.

Ullmark was expected to be part of the long-term solution for Buffalo between the pipes and while that’s still possible, the fact that he only received a one-year deal to get him to UFA eligibility means that the Sabres aren’t yet sold on that possibility.  While he should be able to do enough to earn a small raise at a minimum given the recent demand for quality backups, he’ll need a big year to have a shot at starter money.  Hutton is coming off of a tough season and will need a bounce-back year to garner some interest.  At the very least, he’ll be going year-to-year moving forward as any future contracts will have 35-plus rules attached to them.

Two Years Remaining

F Cody Eakin ($2.25MM, UFA)
F Curtis Lazar ($800K, UFA)
D Colin Miller ($3.875MM, UFA)
F Victor Olofsson ($3.05MM, RFA)
D Rasmus Ristolainen ($5.4MM, UFA)

Olofsson was one of the pleasant surprises in what was a tough season for the Sabres as he was one of the top-scoring rookies in the league before a lower-body injury derailed his momentum.  A bridge deal made a lot of sense for both sides given how his production caught many off guard but if he picks up where he left off and scores at a 20-goal or more pace, he could easily add another million or two to his price tag.  Eakin was brought in as an unrestricted free agent to give them some veteran depth down the middle although the price tag was on the high side given what other role players had to sign for.  Lazar hasn’t lived up to his first-round draft billing but he’s affordable depth that will either be replaced or retained at that price tag.

Ristolainen continues to be one of the more polarizing blueliners in the league.  There’s no denying that he has a strong offensive game but his play in his own end isn’t graded anywhere near as favorably.  Still, he will enter the market at 27 in the prime of his career and is a right-shot player, the side where supply is much shallower than demand.  A small raise, even in this marketplace, is a definite possibility.  After being a key part of the back end in Vegas, Miller didn’t fare anywhere near as well with Buffalo and his ice time has been cut further in the early going this year.  He will need to establish himself as a viable top-four option if he wants to have a chance at getting something close to his current AAV in 2022.

Three Years Remaining

F Zemgus Girgensons ($2.2MM, UFA)
F Kyle Okposo ($6MM, UFA)
F Tage Thompson ($1.4MM, RFA)

Okposo is now officially in the back half of the deal he signed in the ill-fated 2016 offseason.  His days of being an impact player have come and gone but he’s still serviceable in a bottom-six role.  It’s too bad for the Sabres that he’s paid way too much for that particular role though.  Girgensons also got an above-market deal for a depth player and it’s certainly not off to a good start as he’s already out for the season.  Thompson is the lone player left from the Ryan O’Reilly deal to St. Louis and battled injury troubles last year.  He accepted a bit of security by taking the three-year agreement and it shouldn’t take much for Buffalo to get a good return on it but he’ll need to establish himself as a top-six forward to have a shot at a significant raise in 2023.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Boston Bruins

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Boston Bruins

Current Cap Hit: $78,517,314 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Trent Frederic (one year, $925K)
D Urho Vaakanainen (two years, $894K)
F Jack Studnicka (two years, $769K)

Potential Bonuses:
Vaakanainen: $425K
Frederic: $300K
Studnicka: $108K

Young players on entry-level deals are hard to find, but the team does have three prospects drafted high back in 2016 and 2017 who look to be ready to step into the Bruins’ lineup or at least should find their way onto the taxi squad at the very least in Frederic, Studnicka and Vaakanainen. Frederic and Studnicka are battling for middle-six roles, while Vaakanainen is fighting for one of the third pairing roles available on the defense. All have the potential to be solid role players for the team down the role. The question is, when will that happen?

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F David Krejci ($7.25MM, UFA)
G Tuukka Rask ($7MM, UFA)
D Brandon Carlo ($2.85MM, RFA)
F Ondrej Kase ($2.6MM, RFA)
G Jaroslav Halak ($2.25MM, UFA)
F Nick Ritchie ($1.5MM, RFA)
F Sean Kuraly ($1.28MM, UFA)
D Kevan Miller ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Par Lindholm ($850K, UFA)
D Steven Kampfer ($800K, UFA)
F Greg McKegg ($700K, UFA)
F Anton Blidh ($700K, RFA)

Quite a few names are on their final year and Boston will have to make some key decisions with the flat salary cap likely remaining the same for the moment. At the top of the list, is their goaltending situation with both netminders, Rask and Halak, ready to hit unrestricted free agency. Rask has said recently that he would like to remain with the Bruins for the rest of his career, but there also has been questions on how much longer the 33-year-old wants to play as retirement has been an option too. Rask was dominant last year during the regular season with a 2.12 GAA and a .929 save percentage. Unfortunately he opted to leave the bubble during the playoffs due to concerns to tend to a family emergency. A long-term deal wouldn’t make sense, but the team could offer him a three-year pact, if he’s willing to take it. Halak is in a similar situation and was solid with a 2.39 GAA and a .919 save percentage and also could see a similar extension.

Krejci is another veteran the team will have to make a decision on. The veteran is completing a six-year, $43.5MM contract. The belief is that the two sides are expected to begin talks of a potential extension, likely less years and less money, considering he’ll be 35 when his contract expires. However, he has been a solid second-line center for years, although he only scored 13 goals last season, a disappointing season for him. Carlo, however, could see a significant raise next year as the blueliner has developed into a solid top-four pairing defenseman over the last few years.

Two other key decisions will be Kase and Ritchie, both acquired from Anaheim before the trade deadline last season. The speedy Kase struggled once he got to Boston, and didn’t register a goal in six regular season and 11 playoff games. Ritchie was brought in to add some muscle to their bottom-six, but he also hasn’t stood out yet. Both will get long looks this season before the team decides whether to offer them new contracts.

Two Years Remaining

F Patrice Bergeron ($6.88MM, UFA)
D Charlie McAvoy ($4.9MM, RFA)
F Jake Debrusk ($3.68MM, RFA)
D Jeremy Lauzon ($850K, RFA)
F Karson Kuhlman ($725K, RFA)

The Bruins’ first line has been dominant for years and Bergeron’s contract will be the first to expire. The 35-year-old veteran hardly plays his age, but will be 37 years old when his deal expires. He continues to dominate, scoring 31 goals in 61 games last year and doesn’t look like he’s slowing down, but the team will have no choice but to wait and see how he progresses over the final two years in his deal.

The team likely will have to pay up in a couple years for two of their restricted free agents as both McAvoy and Debrusk will likely be taking on bigger roles this season and could take that next step, which suggests that much of their available cap room at this point will be going to both these players. McAvoy had 32 points in 67 games last year, but will likely become the key to the first power play with Torey Krug gone and could see a big jump in his offensive numbers. Lauzon is an interesting name as he currently is playing next to McAvoy on the first pairing, although that may not remain that way. Regardless, he’s pushed his way into what looks like a top-four pairing role and could be a valuable commodity down the road.

Three Years Remaining

F David Pastrnak ($6.67MM, UFA)
F Craig Smith ($3.1MM, UFA)
D John Moore ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Anders Bjork ($1.6MM, RFA)
F Chris Wagner ($1.35MM, UFA)
D Connor Clifton ($1MM, UFA)

Pastrnak is likely to get a long-term deal in three years. He’ll be 27 and an unrestricted free agent, meaning it could cost the Bruins a great deal to lock him up to a long-term deal considering other teams could bid on him too at that time. The team has to hope they can sign him to an extension before he hits UFA status in 2023. Regardless, he has developed into one of the top scorers in the league, posting 48 goals and 95 points in 70 games. Of course, he is currently out of the lineup after he underwent a right hip arthroscopy and labral repair on September 16. He should return at some point in the season, but no word yet on his return.

Smith was brought in this offseason on a reasonable three-year deal in hopes of adding some scoring to their third line, something that has been a trouble-spot for the team in recent years. He tallied 18 goals last season and has scored 64 goals over the past three seasons with Nashville. Bjork has struggled with injuries over the years, but looks ready to contribute this year. He finally played a full season, scoring nine goals in a bottom-six role and should get more opportunities this year.

Of course, the five-year, $13.75MM deal handed to Moore continues to look bad. The veteran blueliner has struggled earning a full-time role on defense and currently looks like the team’s seventh defenseman when the third pairing role is completely in the air.

Four Years Remaining

D Matt Grzelcyk ($3.69MM, UFA)

Grzelcyk’s role with the team has been a diminished one as the defenseman mainly has seen third-pairing minutes. However, with Krug gone, many of those minutes will be given to Grzelcyk, including some power play time, suggesting this could be a big season for him. The team anticipated that and rewarded his hard work with a four-year deal and believe that he will take off, especially offensively this year and be a big contributor for many years, which could make his contract look like a bargain if he does take that next step.Read more

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Winnipeg Jets

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Winnipeg Jets

Current Cap Hit: $83,015,356 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

David Gustafsson (two years, $818K)

Potential Bonuses:
Gustafsson: $132.5K

The 20-year-old made the team out of camp last year as a fourth liner but was eventually moved to the minors.  He’s probably in a similar situation this season and shouldn’t be looking at a costly second deal.  Kristian Vesalainen (two years, $894K plus $850K per year in bonuses) could also be heard from at some point but he may be more of a midseason recall.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Laurent Brossoit ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Andrew Copp ($2.24MM, RFA)
D Derek Forbort ($1MM, UFA)
F Patrik Laine ($6.75MM, RFA)
F Adam Lowry ($2.916MM, UFA)
F Mathieu Perreault ($4.125MM, UFA)
D Neal Pionk ($3MM, RFA)
D Tucker Poolman ($775K, UFA)
D Luca Sbisa ($800K, UFA)
F Paul Stastny ($6.5MM, UFA)
F Nate Thompson ($750K, UFA)
F Dominic Toninato ($700K, UFA)

Let’s start with the biggest name on the list in Laine.  His preference for a trade doesn’t matter a whole lot for this exercise and knowing it’s a contract year with plenty on the line, even if he isn’t thrilled about his situation, it shouldn’t affect his play.  There’s no denying that he is one of the better pure goal-scorers in the league but there’s also no denying that he’s one of the streakiest scorers in the league either.  With a $7.5MM qualifying offer on the horizon, Laine will need to improve on his consistency if he wants to land more than a nominal bump on that if it goes to arbitration.  A long-term deal may not be as lucrative as it could have been a couple of years ago given the current financial landscape but Laine should be one of the highest-paid wingers in the league next year if one can be reached – with Winnipeg or someone else.

Stastny was brought in as a cap dump from Vegas but this is a good landing spot for him.  He’s familiar with the system and could see a small uptick in minutes.  While he’ll re-enter the market subject to 35+ caveats in July, he’s still a capable middle-six center and should be able to command longer than a one-year deal although it will have to come with a notable dip in pay.  Perreault is still a serviceable player that can move up and down the lineup but someone with that skillset should be making about half of what he currently is and that should be his market rate this summer.

Lowry is a player who could very well be hit hard by the current financial situation.  The hope that he’d be able to provide more offense has largely faded and instead, he’s someone that should be between 20-25 points in a normal year while winning a fair share of faceoffs and providing some physicality.  That’s definitely an effective role player but teams will be trying to squeeze their lower-line options for financial savings which doesn’t bode well for his chances of a raise.  Copp saw a lot of time in the top six last season and the offensive results weren’t really there.  He’ll need to be better at that end if he wants to get much more than his $2.3MM qualifying offer.  Thompson and Toninato were brought in for extra depth down the middle and their spots will be filled by similarly-priced depth players if they don’t re-sign for next season; neither should be expected to command much more than the minimum on the open market.

On the back end, Pionk vastly exceeded expectations in his first season in Winnipeg and appears to be well-positioned to land a long-term deal this offseason and if his point per game rate this season is similar to 2019-20, doubling his AAV isn’t out of the question.  Forbort had a rough year injury-wise a year ago which cratered his market this fall but before that, he was a 20-minute per game player.  He should have the opportunity for similar ice time and if he can stay healthy, he could re-enter free agency in July with a considerably larger number of suitors.  Poolman’s progression has been slow and steady so far.  He already has shown himself to be capable of handling a third-pairing workload which on its own should help earn him a small raise.  If he can work his way into number four minutes though, he could be one of the more intriguing unheralded options in free agency next summer.  Sbisa was an effective depth player last season but it’s hard to anticipate his market growing substantially after having to wait until 2019-20 started before he could get a deal last season.

Brossoit’s second year with the Jets wasn’t anywhere near as good as his first as he went from high-end backup numbers to low-end.  Nevertheless, he got a small raise but will need to be closer to his 2018-19 numbers for that to happen again next offseason.

Two Years Remaining

F Mason Appleton ($900K, RFA)
D Nathan Beaulieu ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Jansen Harkins ($725K, RFA)

Appleton has been in and out of Winnipeg’s lineup the last couple of years in a limited role.  If he remains primarily a fourth liner, he won’t have much leverage in securing a bigger deal two years from now with his arbitration eligibility potentially working against him at that time.  Harkins made his NHL debut last season and did enough to convince the Jets to give him a one-way deal at the minimum for both seasons.  He’ll need to work his way into a regular role for his arbitration eligibility to work in his favor in 2022.

Beaulieu hasn’t lived up to his first-round draft billing but since joining the Jets, he has been a serviceable option on the third pairing.  That earned him this two-year guarantee but it’s unlikely he’ll be able to land much more than that on the open market unless he can step into a spot inside their top four.

Three Years Remaining

The Jets don’t have anyone on their roster whose contract expires in 2023.

Four Years Remaining

D Dylan DeMelo ($3MM, UFA)
G Connor Hellebuyck ($6.166MM, UFA)
F Bryan Little ($5.292MM, UFA)
F Mark Scheifele ($6.25MM, UFA)
F Blake Wheeler ($8.25MM, UFA)

Wheeler has been one of the faces of the franchise since the team moved from Atlanta and was recognized for it by this deal, one that takes him through his age-37 season.  There is definitely some risk in the last year or two but he is still a top-line player and even acquitted himself well having to play down the middle for extended periods last season.  Scheifele’s deal seemed like a bit of a risk at the time considering that he only had one 20-goal campaign under his belt at the time it was signed but it has turned into one of the better bargains in the league as he has emerged as a legitimate front-line center.  Little, another long-time Jet, played just seven games last season and has been ruled out for the season as he continues to recover from a perforated eardrum after taking a shot to the head.  He’ll be eligible for LTIR which will get Winnipeg into cap compliance.

DeMelo has certainly seen his stock rise.  He was only two years removed from a non-tender by San Jose, only to re-sign for $900K a week into free agency.  He hit his stride after being traded to Ottawa and fit in quite well with Winnipeg after they acquired him before the deadline.  This was certainly a big raise but he’s worth the price if he plays at a similar level throughout this contract.

Hellebuyck has had a heavy workload the past three seasons and has held up quite well overall, even taking home the Vezina Trophy in 2019-20.  Without a top goalie prospect in the system, this is going to be his spot to hold for a while and at a price tag that’s barely $1MM above the median above starting goaltenders, this has become another bargain for GM Kevin Cheveldayoff.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: St. Louis Blues

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

St. Louis Blues

Current Cap Hit: $84,550,315 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

Jordan Kyrou (one year, $758K)
Robert Thomas (one year, $894K)

Potential Bonuses
Thomas: $425K

Despite not always seeing minutes in the top six, Thomas has quickly established himself as a reliable secondary scorer and had a shot at a 50-point year last season had it not been for the pandemic.  Assuming he’s able to produce at a similar level in 2020-21, he should have enough of a track record to make a long-term deal at least possible.  Having said that, their cap situation may force them into a bridge pact, one that will cost at least three times as much as his current contract.  Kyrou has yet to establish himself as a regular and while he should have the opportunity to do so this season, a one-year deal close to his $874K qualifying offer may make the most sense for both sides unless he has a breakout year.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Ivan Barbashev ($1.475MM, RFA)
G Jordan Binnington ($4.4MM, UFA)
F Tyler Bozak ($5MM, UFA)
F Jacob de la Rose ($700K, RFA)
D Vince Dunn ($1.875MM, RFA)
D Carl Gunnarsson ($1.75MM, UFA)
F Zach Sanford ($1.5MM, RFA)
F Jaden Schwartz ($5.35MM, UFA)
F Alex Steen ($5.75MM, UFA)

Schwartz is one of the more intriguing potential unrestricted free agents in the class of 2021.  He has put up at least 55 points in five of the last seven seasons and one of the two he didn’t was an injury-shortened 2015-16 where he missed 42 games.  But the other was just two years ago where he struggled mightily which may still be fresh in the minds of general managers.  In a normal free agent market, the 28-year-old would be a safe bet for a contract of anywhere from five-to-seven years with an AAV somewhere in the $6.5MM range.  But we saw the UFA market really hit wingers hard back in October and with the financial environment likely to be the same this summer, we could be looking at a similar trend.  On the other hand, that could work well for the Blues in their efforts to re-sign him.

Steen’s playing days have come to an end but he won’t collect his salary if he retires so instead, he’ll be heading for LTIR with the team eventually using that money to formally sign Mike Hoffman next week.  Bozak is someone who had been in trade speculation for most of the offseason given his contract and declining role but he remains and will likely once again serve as the number three center.  He’ll be 35 on this next deal so a 50% pay cut seems probable given his drop in offensive production but his ability at the faceoff dot should help his market.  Sanford has emerged as a capable third liner which should allow him to get a decent raise despite the market for bottom-six forwards taking a hit lately and Barbashev is in a similar situation although he may start on the fourth line.  As for de la Rose, he’s a capable filler but they’ll need to keep that roster spot for someone at the league minimum whether it’s him or someone else down the road.

Dunn just recently signed his deal and did relatively well given that he’s coming off of his quietest offensive season yet and didn’t have a whole lot of leverage.  With the expiring contracts coming off the books up front, it wouldn’t be surprising if he is one of the first players that the Blues try to lock up, perhaps as soon as March 12th (this year’s equivalent of the usual January 1st threshold for players on one-year deals being eligible for extensions).  With him being arbitration-eligible now, his price tag should double at the very least.  Gunnarsson is a bit expensive for the reserve defender that he now is.  That’s a spot they’ll be looking to spend about half of that spot on for next year and that’s about what his ceiling will be on his next deal.

Binnington is another particularly interesting pending UFA.  His track record isn’t the longest at just two NHL seasons, one that was elite and one that was decent.  Because of the lack of experience, how he fares in this shortened campaign where he’s in a situation where it shouldn’t be a platoon will really go a long way in determining if he adds a couple million to his price tag or it stays close to where it currently is.

Two Years Remaining

F Sammy Blais ($1.5MM, RFA)
D Robert Bortuzzo ($1.375MM, UFA)
F Kyle Clifford ($1MM, UFA)
G Ville Husso ($750K, UFA)
F Mackenzie MacEachern ($900K, UFA)
D Colton Parayko ($5.5MM, UFA)
F David Perron ($4MM, UFA)

Perron has been quite the bargain since rejoining the Blues and has provided above-average production inside their top six for a price that typically is below market value (this past offseason being the exception).  Even with the market being what it is, if he hovers around a 50-point pace the next two years, he should still be able to get a deal around this price tag.  Blais’ contract felt a little high at the time and the deflated market for physical forwards only cemented that.  St. Louis feels that he has some offensive upside but he’ll need to put up more than a handful of goals if he wants to be qualified at $1.6MM in 2022.  Clifford came over in free agency, taking a fairly significant dip in pay along the way while MacEachern landed a small raise.  Both are on market value deals for 12th and 13th forwards.

Parayko is the most notable player out of this group.  The departure of Alex Pietrangelo should pave the way to step into an even bigger role that could approach the 25-minute mark.  An uptick in offense has been expected for a while but if that doesn’t come, his pay bump could be limited a bit as a result.  But if he can establish himself as a 40-point player or more and become that high-end all-around blueliner, he could command something around the $8.8MM that Pietrangelo received from Vegas.  Bortuzzo is a capable sixth defender although the contract may be a small overpayment given some of the recent deals that have been signed.  This is a spot that’s likely to be filled by a prospect when the deal is up.

Husso has long been billed as a goalie of the future for the Blues and was ahead of Binnington on the depth chart not that long ago.  However, he’s 25 and has yet to make his NHL debut.  He’s going to have an opportunity to at least show that he’s an NHL-caliber goaltender over these next two years but unless Binnington falters or is injured, Husso shouldn’t be in a spot to really cash in on the open market at the price point that other top backups have received in the $3.5MM range.

Three Years Remaining

F Ryan O’Reilly ($7.5MM, UFA)
F Oskar Sundqvist ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Vladimir Tarasenko ($7.5MM, UFA)

O’Reilly, the new captain, has fit in quite well since joining the Blues.  He’s never going to contend for a scoring title but he’s quite strong in his own end and remains one of the top faceoff players in the league, especially among top-liners.  He’ll be 33 when this deal is up and while that might hurt his market, it’s quite possible that his next contract comes in at a similar amount.  Tarasenko didn’t hide his feelings about wanting the captaincy but his recurring shoulder troubles certainly didn’t help his candidacy (nor does it help his odds of a similar-priced deal three years from now).  He will miss a good chunk of the season which makes him LTIR-eligible although if they believe he’ll be back at some point (which seems to be the indication), they’ll only be able to fill his absence internally.  Sundqvist stepped into a bigger role in 2018-19 which earned him this contract but he still primarily is in the bottom six which makes this contract one that’s above market value.

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