Free Agent Focus: Arizona Coyotes
Free agency is now a little more than a month away from opening up and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. That’s not really the case for Arizona this summer as there are few big names for them to sign, but here is a breakdown of their free agent situation.
Key Restricted Free Agent: F Lawson Crouse – While the team may not have any truly elite players who will be restricted free agents, the team will make it a priority to sign Crouse, who put together an impressive season with Arizona as a key member of the team’s fourth line. The 6-foot-4, 220-pound winger took off in his third season with the Coyotes. The former 11th overall pick in 2015 by the Florida Panthers, the Coyotes acquired Crouse along with the hefty contract of Dave Bolland, and finally are starting to the move pay off. Crouse, not only 11 goals and 25 points for Arizona this year, more importantly, he contributed 288 hits, giving the team some much-needed physicality.
G Adin Hill – While he isn’t likely to be considered among the starting tandem next year in Arizona, the team saw quite an improvement by the 23-year-old Hill, who was recalled after the injury to both Antti Raanta and Darcy Kuemper mid-year, and fared well in a stint as the full-time starter as he won seven games for the Coyotes. While teams eventually started to figure him out, it was a good sign that Arizona has a young netminder ready to fill in, especially considering the injury history of both goaltenders. Hill finished the season with 2.76 GAA and a .901 save percentage in 13 appearances and will need to be re-signed to continue his development and he could eventually replace Kuemper once his contract runs out after the 2019-20 season.
Other RFAs: F Josh Archibald, F Michael Bunting, F Nick Cousins, F Hudson Fasching, D Ilya Lyubushkin, D Dysin Mayo, G Hunter Miska, F Emil Pettersson.
Key Unrestricted Free Agents: F Richard Panik – The Coyotes picked up Panik back in 2018 in hopes of adding a 20-goal scorer to their middle lines after he posted a 22-goal campaign with Chicago during the 2016-17 season. While Panik showed some flashes of offense, he has scored just 14 goals per season over the last two years. His ice time has also increased this year as he averaged a career-high 16:37. However, assuming general manager John Chayka continues to turn over his roster, Panik could be the odd man out and be a target for many teams looking for bottom-six production and a contract that goes with it. That doesn’t rule out a reunion, but when it comes to unrestricted free agents, the team doesn’t have too much to worry about.
Other UFAs: F Mario Kempe, D Dakota Mermis, G Calvin Pickard, D Robbie Russo, F David Ullstrom.
Projected Cap Space: The Coyotes have more than $74MM tied up in 20 layers for next season, per CapFriendly. Even with the projected bump in the Upper Limit, the Coyotes don’t have as much room to maneuver as in previous seasons. The team does have two years remaining on the Marion Hossa contract, which should give the team an extra $5.275MM once the team places him on LTIR at the start of the regular season in October, but the team now has bigger contracts than in years past after new extensions for Nick Schmaltz, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Christian Dvorak, Niklas Hjalmarsson and Jacob Chychrun kick in this summer. Many assume the team will try to get involved in the Phil Kessel discussions as Arizona is a team that Kessel has indicated he’d like to go to, but then Chayka may have to manipulate the cap again to free up some space. Regardless, don’t be surprised if Chayka doesn’t make several more moves to shake up this team.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Atlantic Notes: Kapanen, Johnsson, Ristolainen, Krejci
While the Toronto Maple Leafs know what to expect when it comes to the future contract for Mitch Marner, it isn’t as straight forward for their other two key restricted free agents in Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson. Some of the reason for that is that young forwards with little experience who post an impressive season, often don’t get rewarded when they hit restricted free agency and that could easily be the case for the Maple Leafs, according to The Athletic’s Ian Tulloch (subscription required).
Kapanen, who hits restricted free agency for the first time, had an impressive season last year as he put up 20 goals and 44 points as a full-time player. However, before that, he had played a combined 55 games (and tallying just 10 points) over three separate seasons. Johnsson posted very similar numbers as he tallied 20 goals and 43 points in 73 games last season, but has played just 82 games in two years.
There are a number of comparables, however, including Ondrej Kase, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Phillip Danault, Anthony Mantha, Andreas Athanasiou, Teuvo Teravainen and Andre Burakovsky. All of them opted to sign a bridge deal with the hopes to prove to their respective teams that they can score like that consistently, suggesting that each of them may make anywhere from $2.7MM to $3.3MM AAV if they follow suit.
Of course, the problem could come down to offer sheets as both players would likely be prime candidates to sign offer sheets with other teams that could be closer to $4MM with a less risky compensation (just a second-round pick) which could cause quite a bit of havoc to Toronto’s salary cap situation.
- Despite multiple rumors that the Buffalo Sabres are considering dealing defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen, who has never been able to take that next step and become a star defenseman like the team thought would happen when he joined the franchise six years ago, TSN’s Darren Dreger (while appearing on WGR 550) said he doesn’t believe that the Sabres will entertain the notion of trading him. Dreger said he doesn’t believe it’s a move the team feels is critical, but general manager Jason Botterill is still open to listening to offers. Of course, one fear of moving him is that Ristolainen could take that next step wherever he gets traded to, which the Sabres would prefer to avoid.
- NHL.com’s Eric Russo writes that the Boston Bruins have been without center David Krejci for the past few days as the center has been out with an illness. He missed Thursday’s scrimmage and skipped practice on Saturday although head coach Bruce Cassidy said he hopes to have Krejci back on Sunday. “Precautionary,” said Cassidy. “I suspect we’ll see him tomorrow. That is the plan. If he’s not out tomorrow, now there’s a little bit of worry there. But right now, I believe he’ll be practicing tomorrow.”
Poll: Where Will Erik Karlsson Play In 2019-20?
The San Jose Sharks’ season has come to an end, and with it all eyes now turn to their stable of unrestricted free agents. Joe Pavelski and Joe Thornton have both indicated that they would like to return to the team if possible, while Gustav Nyquist could also be retained if he made a strong enough impact on GM Doug Wilson. But the name everyone is talking about is Erik Karlsson, who is poised to be one of the very top free agents in the class if he decides to take his talents to the open market on July 1. Today, Karlsson tweeted a thank you to the San Jose organization and city, which immediately threw hockey fans all over the world into a frenzy speculating on what it means.
As fans try to decipher what Karlsson meant, Joe Smith of The Athletic (subscription required) takes a more level-headed approach to his speculation and examines how the Tampa Bay Lightning could potentially fit the superstar into their locker room. Most notably, Karlsson is good friends with Tampa Bay defenseman Victor Hedman and has expressed an interest in playing with his old junior teammate in the past. That of course would require plenty of salary cap surgery from the Lightning, who have their own financial issues coming with the pending contract for RFA Brayden Point.
So if not San Jose or Tampa Bay, where? The New York Rangers have been suggested, given their ample cap space and Karlsson’s relationship with goaltender Henrik Lundqvist. The Rangers are starting to turn the corner on their rebuild and are about to add another top talent with the second-overall pick. A player like Karlsson could perhaps turn them into playoff contenders as early as 2019-20 if they chose to pursue him.
It’s not like his next contract won’t come with risk however. Karlsson has battled several lower-body injuries over the last few seasons and was forced out of the playoffs recently, which some believe will have an impact on his earning potential this summer. He’ll turn 29 in a week’s time, and has a lot of miles on his body already from a career that has seen him log more than 23 minutes a night in all but his rookie season. He played just 53 games for the Sharks during the regular season, though he still recorded 45 points in that time and was a possession monster.
So where will Karlsson end up? Will the Sharks decide he’s too good to let walk into free agency and offer him the Drew Doughty-like long-term contract he was looking for last summer? Or does he take his talents to the east coast and play with one of his national team friends? Does another team—perhaps the Vegas Golden Knights, who have pursued him heavily in the past—knock on his door when the interview period opens in a month’s time? Cast your vote below and make sure to leave a comment!
Where will Erik Karlsson play in 2019-20?
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Other (leave in comments) 29% (685)
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New York Rangers 27% (646)
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Tampa Bay Lightning 17% (396)
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Vegas Golden Knights 16% (388)
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San Jose Sharks 11% (257)
Total votes: 2,372
[Mobile users click here to vote]
Snapshots: Thornton, Pavelski, Chelios
The San Jose Sharks have plenty of tough decisions this summer when it comes to unrestricted free agents, but one of the most interesting will be regarding Joe Thornton. The veteran forward will turn 40 the day after free agency opens but is coming off another solid season with 16 goals and 51 points. Thornton spoke to Kevin Kurz of The Athletic today at the season-ending media availability, and told him that he hadn’t made a decision on his future yet but would only play in San Jose if he does continue his career.
The 39-year old now has 1,478 points in 1,566 games during his long NHL career, but hasn’t been able to lift the Stanley Cup a single time. After two major knee injuries and another disappointing finish, who knows whether he wants to suit it up again in 2019-20. Scheduled to become a UFA, Thornton was operating this season on a one-year, $5MM deal.
- Meanwhile, Joe Pavelski is also an unrestricted free agent this summer but is “pretty confident” he’ll be back, according to Kurz. Amazingly, Pavelski had hand surgery two weeks ago but continued to suit up in the playoffs despite that and several other serious injuries. The 34-year old captain of the Sharks had an outstanding season with 38 goals, and was the heart and soul of the team once again in the postseason.
- Jake Chelios won’t be re-signing with the Detroit Red Wings, as he has accepted a two-year contract in the KHL. Chelios is headed to China to play for Kunlun Red Star after making his NHL debut earlier this season. The son of legendary defenseman Chris Chelios, Jake played four seasons at Michigan State University before suiting up in the AHL for the last five years.
Islanders Re-Sign Brock Nelson To Six-Year Extension
The New York Islanders had four key players approaching unrestricted free agency this off-season, but they have cut that number down to three. The Islanders have announced that they have signed center Brock Nelson to a long-term contract extension. The new deal is six years at $6MM per season for Nelson, who becomes both the highest-paid and longest-signed player on New York’s roster (for now). The full deal breaks down as follows:
- 2019-20: $8.0MM + full no-trade
- 2020-21: $5.2MM + full no-trade
- 2021-22: $8.0MM + partial no-trade
- 2022-23: $5.2MM + partial no-trade
- 2023-24: $5.6MM + partial no-trade
- 2024-25: $4.0MM + partial no-trade
Nelson, 27, bet on himself last summer by signing a one-year, $4.25MM extension with the Islanders in hopes that a breakout season would earn him the long-term, high-paying deal he was seeking. That gamble worked out perfectly, as Nelson enjoyed the best season of his career and had been set to hit the market as likely the third-best center and a top-15 or so free agent. The Islanders knew they had to pay, perhaps even slightly over market value, to keep Nelson and did just that. The six-year term is less of a concern, as Nelson will be just 33 when the contract expires.
New head coach Barry Trotz took an immediate liking to Nelson this season, giving him more than three minutes of extra ice time per night compared to last year, as well as an increased role on special teams. Nelson responded with a career-high 53 points this season and finished third on the Islanders in scoring. He was also New York’s best five-on-five forward, leading the team in even strength goals and points. The team clearly trusts Nelson to continue playing a well-rounded game and growing his offensive ability.
As the first major UFA forward to sign a long-term extension this off-season, Nelson sets the bar for not only his fellow Islanders teammates but for the market as a whole. After signing Nelson, the Islanders still have over $29.2MM in cap space per CapFriendly. The team still hopes to sign forwards Anders Lee and Jordan Eberle, as well as goaltender Robin Lehner. Although Nelson outscored Lee and Eberle this season, the unsigned duo are around the same age as Nelson but have more experience, more scoring history, and simply more talent. The 6×6 deal agreed to by Nelson is unlikely to do the trick for either Lee or Eberle, meaning signing both would chew up more than $12MM of the Islanders’ remaining cap space. It’s still very possible for them to sign all of their key free agents, but not as easy now that Nelson’s deal is in place. Elsewhere on the market, Nelson’s $6MM AAV will likely raise the price tag for the likes of Kevin Hayes, Ryan Dzingel, Gustav Nyquist, and Brett Connolly among others, as each are close in age and platform production to Nelson, albeit Hayes is the only center in the group. This is just the first of what are likely to be several big-name extensions prior to July 1st, but Nelson’s deal will certainly have ramifications in the current marketplace.
Snapshots: Trouba, Zucker, Vrana
The Winnipeg Jets suffered an early defeat in the Stanley Cup playoffs after lazily struggling through the last part of the regular season. Something seemed off for months as the team lost their grip on the Central Division, and failed to crack 100 points despite being 34-16-2 at the beginning of February. That may lead to some changes this offseason as the team decides how they can better compete, and Jacob Trouba‘s name has come up in trade talks once again. Both Ken Wiebe of the Winnipeg Sun and Murat Ates of The Athletic (subscription required) examined the Trouba situation and the potential outcomes.
Most prevalent in both pieces is a trade of the right-handed defenseman, given his unwillingness to sign a long-term contract to this point. Trouba was previously unhappy with his role on the team, playing behind Tyler Myers and Dustin Byfuglien or asked to hit the ice on his unnatural left side. This year much of that changed and Trouba became the premiere offensive weapon on the Jets’ blue line, recording 50 points in 82 games. Unfortunately he is now without a contract and just a single year away from unrestricted free agency. If the Jets don’t trade Trouba, he could elect salary arbitration again in order to secure himself a one-year deal.
- It’s hard to talk trade these days without mentioning the Minnesota Wild, who are expected to be active this summer in their pursuit of a return to the playoffs in 2020. Wild GM Paul Fenton has already torn apart the previous core of the team by trading the likes of Charlie Coyle, Nino Niederreiter and Mikael Granlund, but has more work to do in order to get his team back to the promised land. Michael Russo of The Athletic (subscription required) reports that Jason Zucker is being dangled once again in trade talks, as he was at the deadline when he was almost sent to the Calgary Flames. Russo examines potential trade fits for the Wild including Phil Kessel, Tyler Johnson and William Nylander, though it is not clear who Fenton is targeting at this moment.
- While writing about the upcoming cap crunch facing the Washington Capitals, Chris Kuc of The Athletic (subscription required) notes that the team is exploring a two-year bridge deal with restricted free agent Jakub Vrana. The two sides, Washington and agent J.P. Barry have also discussed a “slightly longer” deal for Vrana, and conducted initial talks on another client, Carl Hagelin. The Capitals are in a tough cap situation heading into next season, and much of it will depend on what number they can get Vrana at. That’s why a bridge deal makes sense, though Vrana is coming off a 24-goal season and will be looking for a healthy raise regardless.
Nashville Predators To Pursue Matt Duchene
All that talk about not making too much of Matt Duchene‘s property in Nashville? Forget about it, apparently. Pierre LeBrun writes for The Athletic that the Predators are expected to enter the bidding for the best center on the free agent market. The team would have to shed some salary to do so, but that appears to be a hurdle they are willing to take on to add a top offensive talent.
Not only does Duchene have connections to the city – as well as a love for country music – but Nashville GM David Poile tried to acquire Duchene from the Colorado Avalanche last year (he settled to be third team in on the doomed deal with the Ottawa Senators) and is likely to take another run in free agency. The only problem with the free agency route is that no salary will move out the other way. Duchene is expected to command a maximum-term contract worth upwards of $9MM per year. Currently, the Predators have only $7MM in available cap space with 21 players signed. That doesn’t even include anticipated extensions for RFA forwards Colton Sissons and Rocco Grimaldi, and Nashville must also consider the raise that No. 1 defenseman Roman Josi is owed on his next contract. It would be impossible for the Predators to sign Duchene without making other significant moves.
Fortunately, as LeBrun notes, Poile has built a roster that is completely free of any trade restrictions. Any Nashville player could be on the move this summer, whether that’s dynamic, but expensive defenseman P.K. Subban, disappointing recent extension Kyle Turris, or underwhelming deadline addition Mikael Granlund. The Predators have long been searching for a surefire second line center and Duchene behind Ryan Johansen would give Nashville an elite one-two punch. If it costs them any of the aforementioned players, or even a combination of depth players like Craig Smith, Nick Bonino, or Calle Jarnkrok, it would likely be worth it. The real question is whether Poile can get the requisite deals done, or at least in place, by July 1st so that he can approach talks with Duchene with the confidence of knowing he’s not putting his team in an impossible cap position.
It is still a stretch to consider Nashville the likely landing spot for Duchene. It would take considerable effort and roster re-organization to make the star center a fit for the Predators, whereas many other teams in need of a top pivot also have the cap space to do so easily. Yet, if Nashville truly has interest in making it work, combined with Duchene’s own interests in the city, there is certainly a potential fit that could shift the balance of power in the Western Conference.
West Notes: Sutter, Hayes, Pavelski
New Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland has made another pair of changes in the front office, parting ways with both vice president of player personnel Duane Sutter and media relations director J.J. Hebert according to Ryan Rishaug of TSN. This comes after the organization also recently said goodbye to Craig MacTavish who is off to coach in the KHL.
It’s not unusual for a new general manager to clean house so to speak, but Sutter’s departure will mean a big change in the scouting department. That of course may not be a terrible thing, given the team’s lack of real success in the draft over the last several years. Sutter had been with the team’s scouting department since the 2011-12 season, after which Edmonton notoriously selected Nail Yakupov first overall. While there have obviously been other cases of successful draft picks, Holland will likely install his own team to try and draft and develop more talent for the Oilers moving forward.
- Kevin Hayes didn’t fit into the Winnipeg Jets perfectly after the New York Rangers sent him north at the trade deadline, but that doesn’t mean he won’t have his suitors this summer when he hits unrestricted free agency. Adrian Dater tweets that sources have told him of the Colorado Avalanche’s interest in the big center, which would certainly make sense given GM Joe Sakic‘s “aggressive” comments at the end of the year. Hayes heads into the offseason as one of the top centers available in free agency after posting a career-high 54 points this season split between New York and Winnipeg.
- Joe Pavelski is focused on helping the San Jose Sharks avoid elimination tonight—if he even plays—but pretty soon he’ll have to consider what’s next in his NHL career. The Sharks’ captain is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1 and is coming off an incredible 38-goal regular season, but has had no extension talks with the front office according to Scott Burnside of The Athletic (subscription required) who examined the Pavelski situation in full earlier today. It seems extremely unlikely that Pavelski would leave the only organization he’s ever known, especially one that gave him an opportunity as a seventh-round pick, but GM Doug Wilson has played hardball as recently as 2017 when he watched Patrick Marleau chase a three-year deal in Toronto.
Carolina Hurricanes Hope To Keep Both Mrazek, McElhinney
Heading into the 2018-19 season, many questions were raised about the goaltending situation for the Carolina Hurricanes. The team had watched Scott Darling struggle mightily in the first year of his four-year $16.6MM deal, and made moves to insulate him with other veteran goaltenders. Petr Mrazek was signed to a one-year $1.5MM deal after he failed to receive a qualifying offer from the Philadelphia Flyers, and just before the season began the team claimed veteran backup Curtis McElhinney from the Toronto Maple Leafs. That duo would end up being the team’s full-time tandem during the season after Darling was quickly buried in the minor leagues.
In the playoffs, Mrazek would start and play well for the team before eventually relinquishing the role to McElhinney. Both men weren’t good enough to stop the bleeding against the powerhouse Boston Bruins, but their performance in getting the Hurricanes to an Eastern Conference Final was still admirable. Unfortunately, both are scheduled for unrestricted free agency this summer. It’s not clear what their camps are thinking, but Hurricanes GM Don Waddell made his intentions clear today when he told reporters including Chip Alexander of the Raleigh News & Observer that Carolina’s goal was to bring back both Mrazek and McElhinney next season. Waddell also said there was no decision yet on whether to buy out Darling’s contract, despite the recent reports.
Trying to retain the pair makes sense on the surface. Mrazek posted a .914 save percentage in the regular season and went 23-14-3 for the team, while McElhinney continued his late-career renaissance with a 20-11-2 record and .912 save percentage. Both of those were leagues better than Darling has been since joining Carolina, and gave the team a reliable backbone in their Stanley Cup chase.
Still, they certainly also bring some risk. McElhinney will turn 36 on Thursday and has never played more than 33 games in a single season, which he did this year. Though he has been excellent for both Toronto and Carolina, the entire body of work—which also includes stops in Columbus, Calgary, Anaheim, Ottawa and Phoenix—is less attractive. Mrazek meanwhile has been one of the most frustratingly inconsistent goaltenders in the league since debuting in 2013 for the Detroit Red Wings. Showing flashes of absolute brilliance mixed with long stretches of poor play, committing long-term to him is only possible if you believe he has turned a corner. His overall performance in the playoffs, in which he posted just an .894 save percentage, should at least make the Hurricanes question that.
Obviously, either player could also decide to wait until July 1st and see what other offers they receive. Carolina also has young goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic waiting in the wings, fresh off a Goaltender of the Year award in the AHL. Nedeljkovic posted a .916 for the powerhouse Charlotte Checkers, and has a 6-2 record in the postseason. If the team can’t retain one or both of their free agent goaltenders, Nedeljokic could potentially step into an NHL role next season, though goaltending depth is obviously extremely important for a team with their eyes on the Stanley Cup.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Snapshots: Free Agency, Nash, PWHPA
Free agency is just around the corner and speculation has already begun regarding the landing spots of some top talent. Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) released his early list of the top 20 unrestricted free agents, and Artemi Panarin‘s name lands on top with little surprise. The Columbus Blue Jackets’ superstar is expected to have many suitors this offseason, but Custance and others have suggested there may be a deal coming earlier than July 1.
The scribe writes that “it would be a bit surprising” if Panarin makes it that far, instead examining a potential sign-and-trade scenario in order to secure an eight-year contract. That would get Columbus some assets back, though given the lack of historical precedent it is not clear how valuable a move like that would be. Once again Panarin is linked to former head coach Joel Quenneville, who is now with the Florida Panthers.
- Rick Nash may not be playing professional hockey anymore, but that doesn’t mean he’s completely given up the game. Aaron Portzline of The Athletic (subscription required) details how Nash has been shadowing Blue Jackets’ GM Jarmo Kekalainen for some time, including attending the current IIHF World Championship. Nash will also attend the NHL Entry Draft with the Columbus contingent, though there is no official word on what his role with the organization will be moving forward. The former star forward was forced to retire due to health concerns stemming from several concussions over his long career.
- Kendall Coyne Schofield, Hilary Knight, Marie-Philip Poulin and many other players have announced the formation of the Professional Women’s Hockey Players’ Association. The organization “will serve as a vehicle dedicated to promoting and supporting the creation of a single, viable women’s professional league in North America.” Earlier this year more than 200 top players announced a boycott of the NWHL and other leagues for this season, as they seek a more financially sustainable league that can provide the resources required for them to play at a high level.