Poll: Where Will Erik Karlsson Play In 2019-20?
The San Jose Sharks’ season has come to an end, and with it all eyes now turn to their stable of unrestricted free agents. Joe Pavelski and Joe Thornton have both indicated that they would like to return to the team if possible, while Gustav Nyquist could also be retained if he made a strong enough impact on GM Doug Wilson. But the name everyone is talking about is Erik Karlsson, who is poised to be one of the very top free agents in the class if he decides to take his talents to the open market on July 1. Today, Karlsson tweeted a thank you to the San Jose organization and city, which immediately threw hockey fans all over the world into a frenzy speculating on what it means.
As fans try to decipher what Karlsson meant, Joe Smith of The Athletic (subscription required) takes a more level-headed approach to his speculation and examines how the Tampa Bay Lightning could potentially fit the superstar into their locker room. Most notably, Karlsson is good friends with Tampa Bay defenseman Victor Hedman and has expressed an interest in playing with his old junior teammate in the past. That of course would require plenty of salary cap surgery from the Lightning, who have their own financial issues coming with the pending contract for RFA Brayden Point.
So if not San Jose or Tampa Bay, where? The New York Rangers have been suggested, given their ample cap space and Karlsson’s relationship with goaltender Henrik Lundqvist. The Rangers are starting to turn the corner on their rebuild and are about to add another top talent with the second-overall pick. A player like Karlsson could perhaps turn them into playoff contenders as early as 2019-20 if they chose to pursue him.
It’s not like his next contract won’t come with risk however. Karlsson has battled several lower-body injuries over the last few seasons and was forced out of the playoffs recently, which some believe will have an impact on his earning potential this summer. He’ll turn 29 in a week’s time, and has a lot of miles on his body already from a career that has seen him log more than 23 minutes a night in all but his rookie season. He played just 53 games for the Sharks during the regular season, though he still recorded 45 points in that time and was a possession monster.
So where will Karlsson end up? Will the Sharks decide he’s too good to let walk into free agency and offer him the Drew Doughty-like long-term contract he was looking for last summer? Or does he take his talents to the east coast and play with one of his national team friends? Does another team—perhaps the Vegas Golden Knights, who have pursued him heavily in the past—knock on his door when the interview period opens in a month’s time? Cast your vote below and make sure to leave a comment!
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Snapshots: Thornton, Pavelski, Chelios
The San Jose Sharks have plenty of tough decisions this summer when it comes to unrestricted free agents, but one of the most interesting will be regarding Joe Thornton. The veteran forward will turn 40 the day after free agency opens but is coming off another solid season with 16 goals and 51 points. Thornton spoke to Kevin Kurz of The Athletic today at the season-ending media availability, and told him that he hadn’t made a decision on his future yet but would only play in San Jose if he does continue his career.
The 39-year old now has 1,478 points in 1,566 games during his long NHL career, but hasn’t been able to lift the Stanley Cup a single time. After two major knee injuries and another disappointing finish, who knows whether he wants to suit it up again in 2019-20. Scheduled to become a UFA, Thornton was operating this season on a one-year, $5MM deal.
- Meanwhile, Joe Pavelski is also an unrestricted free agent this summer but is “pretty confident” he’ll be back, according to Kurz. Amazingly, Pavelski had hand surgery two weeks ago but continued to suit up in the playoffs despite that and several other serious injuries. The 34-year old captain of the Sharks had an outstanding season with 38 goals, and was the heart and soul of the team once again in the postseason.
- Jake Chelios won’t be re-signing with the Detroit Red Wings, as he has accepted a two-year contract in the KHL. Chelios is headed to China to play for Kunlun Red Star after making his NHL debut earlier this season. The son of legendary defenseman Chris Chelios, Jake played four seasons at Michigan State University before suiting up in the AHL for the last five years.
Islanders Re-Sign Brock Nelson To Six-Year Extension
The New York Islanders had four key players approaching unrestricted free agency this off-season, but they have cut that number down to three. The Islanders have announced that they have signed center Brock Nelson to a long-term contract extension. The new deal is six years at $6MM per season for Nelson, who becomes both the highest-paid and longest-signed player on New York’s roster (for now). The full deal breaks down as follows:
- 2019-20: $8.0MM + full no-trade
- 2020-21: $5.2MM + full no-trade
- 2021-22: $8.0MM + partial no-trade
- 2022-23: $5.2MM + partial no-trade
- 2023-24: $5.6MM + partial no-trade
- 2024-25: $4.0MM + partial no-trade
Nelson, 27, bet on himself last summer by signing a one-year, $4.25MM extension with the Islanders in hopes that a breakout season would earn him the long-term, high-paying deal he was seeking. That gamble worked out perfectly, as Nelson enjoyed the best season of his career and had been set to hit the market as likely the third-best center and a top-15 or so free agent. The Islanders knew they had to pay, perhaps even slightly over market value, to keep Nelson and did just that. The six-year term is less of a concern, as Nelson will be just 33 when the contract expires.
New head coach Barry Trotz took an immediate liking to Nelson this season, giving him more than three minutes of extra ice time per night compared to last year, as well as an increased role on special teams. Nelson responded with a career-high 53 points this season and finished third on the Islanders in scoring. He was also New York’s best five-on-five forward, leading the team in even strength goals and points. The team clearly trusts Nelson to continue playing a well-rounded game and growing his offensive ability.
As the first major UFA forward to sign a long-term extension this off-season, Nelson sets the bar for not only his fellow Islanders teammates but for the market as a whole. After signing Nelson, the Islanders still have over $29.2MM in cap space per CapFriendly. The team still hopes to sign forwards Anders Lee and Jordan Eberle, as well as goaltender Robin Lehner. Although Nelson outscored Lee and Eberle this season, the unsigned duo are around the same age as Nelson but have more experience, more scoring history, and simply more talent. The 6×6 deal agreed to by Nelson is unlikely to do the trick for either Lee or Eberle, meaning signing both would chew up more than $12MM of the Islanders’ remaining cap space. It’s still very possible for them to sign all of their key free agents, but not as easy now that Nelson’s deal is in place. Elsewhere on the market, Nelson’s $6MM AAV will likely raise the price tag for the likes of Kevin Hayes, Ryan Dzingel, Gustav Nyquist, and Brett Connolly among others, as each are close in age and platform production to Nelson, albeit Hayes is the only center in the group. This is just the first of what are likely to be several big-name extensions prior to July 1st, but Nelson’s deal will certainly have ramifications in the current marketplace.
Snapshots: Trouba, Zucker, Vrana
The Winnipeg Jets suffered an early defeat in the Stanley Cup playoffs after lazily struggling through the last part of the regular season. Something seemed off for months as the team lost their grip on the Central Division, and failed to crack 100 points despite being 34-16-2 at the beginning of February. That may lead to some changes this offseason as the team decides how they can better compete, and Jacob Trouba‘s name has come up in trade talks once again. Both Ken Wiebe of the Winnipeg Sun and Murat Ates of The Athletic (subscription required) examined the Trouba situation and the potential outcomes.
Most prevalent in both pieces is a trade of the right-handed defenseman, given his unwillingness to sign a long-term contract to this point. Trouba was previously unhappy with his role on the team, playing behind Tyler Myers and Dustin Byfuglien or asked to hit the ice on his unnatural left side. This year much of that changed and Trouba became the premiere offensive weapon on the Jets’ blue line, recording 50 points in 82 games. Unfortunately he is now without a contract and just a single year away from unrestricted free agency. If the Jets don’t trade Trouba, he could elect salary arbitration again in order to secure himself a one-year deal.
- It’s hard to talk trade these days without mentioning the Minnesota Wild, who are expected to be active this summer in their pursuit of a return to the playoffs in 2020. Wild GM Paul Fenton has already torn apart the previous core of the team by trading the likes of Charlie Coyle, Nino Niederreiter and Mikael Granlund, but has more work to do in order to get his team back to the promised land. Michael Russo of The Athletic (subscription required) reports that Jason Zucker is being dangled once again in trade talks, as he was at the deadline when he was almost sent to the Calgary Flames. Russo examines potential trade fits for the Wild including Phil Kessel, Tyler Johnson and William Nylander, though it is not clear who Fenton is targeting at this moment.
- While writing about the upcoming cap crunch facing the Washington Capitals, Chris Kuc of The Athletic (subscription required) notes that the team is exploring a two-year bridge deal with restricted free agent Jakub Vrana. The two sides, Washington and agent J.P. Barry have also discussed a “slightly longer” deal for Vrana, and conducted initial talks on another client, Carl Hagelin. The Capitals are in a tough cap situation heading into next season, and much of it will depend on what number they can get Vrana at. That’s why a bridge deal makes sense, though Vrana is coming off a 24-goal season and will be looking for a healthy raise regardless.
Nashville Predators To Pursue Matt Duchene
All that talk about not making too much of Matt Duchene‘s property in Nashville? Forget about it, apparently. Pierre LeBrun writes for The Athletic that the Predators are expected to enter the bidding for the best center on the free agent market. The team would have to shed some salary to do so, but that appears to be a hurdle they are willing to take on to add a top offensive talent.
Not only does Duchene have connections to the city – as well as a love for country music – but Nashville GM David Poile tried to acquire Duchene from the Colorado Avalanche last year (he settled to be third team in on the doomed deal with the Ottawa Senators) and is likely to take another run in free agency. The only problem with the free agency route is that no salary will move out the other way. Duchene is expected to command a maximum-term contract worth upwards of $9MM per year. Currently, the Predators have only $7MM in available cap space with 21 players signed. That doesn’t even include anticipated extensions for RFA forwards Colton Sissons and Rocco Grimaldi, and Nashville must also consider the raise that No. 1 defenseman Roman Josi is owed on his next contract. It would be impossible for the Predators to sign Duchene without making other significant moves.
Fortunately, as LeBrun notes, Poile has built a roster that is completely free of any trade restrictions. Any Nashville player could be on the move this summer, whether that’s dynamic, but expensive defenseman P.K. Subban, disappointing recent extension Kyle Turris, or underwhelming deadline addition Mikael Granlund. The Predators have long been searching for a surefire second line center and Duchene behind Ryan Johansen would give Nashville an elite one-two punch. If it costs them any of the aforementioned players, or even a combination of depth players like Craig Smith, Nick Bonino, or Calle Jarnkrok, it would likely be worth it. The real question is whether Poile can get the requisite deals done, or at least in place, by July 1st so that he can approach talks with Duchene with the confidence of knowing he’s not putting his team in an impossible cap position.
It is still a stretch to consider Nashville the likely landing spot for Duchene. It would take considerable effort and roster re-organization to make the star center a fit for the Predators, whereas many other teams in need of a top pivot also have the cap space to do so easily. Yet, if Nashville truly has interest in making it work, combined with Duchene’s own interests in the city, there is certainly a potential fit that could shift the balance of power in the Western Conference.
West Notes: Sutter, Hayes, Pavelski
New Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland has made another pair of changes in the front office, parting ways with both vice president of player personnel Duane Sutter and media relations director J.J. Hebert according to Ryan Rishaug of TSN. This comes after the organization also recently said goodbye to Craig MacTavish who is off to coach in the KHL.
It’s not unusual for a new general manager to clean house so to speak, but Sutter’s departure will mean a big change in the scouting department. That of course may not be a terrible thing, given the team’s lack of real success in the draft over the last several years. Sutter had been with the team’s scouting department since the 2011-12 season, after which Edmonton notoriously selected Nail Yakupov first overall. While there have obviously been other cases of successful draft picks, Holland will likely install his own team to try and draft and develop more talent for the Oilers moving forward.
- Kevin Hayes didn’t fit into the Winnipeg Jets perfectly after the New York Rangers sent him north at the trade deadline, but that doesn’t mean he won’t have his suitors this summer when he hits unrestricted free agency. Adrian Dater tweets that sources have told him of the Colorado Avalanche’s interest in the big center, which would certainly make sense given GM Joe Sakic‘s “aggressive” comments at the end of the year. Hayes heads into the offseason as one of the top centers available in free agency after posting a career-high 54 points this season split between New York and Winnipeg.
- Joe Pavelski is focused on helping the San Jose Sharks avoid elimination tonight—if he even plays—but pretty soon he’ll have to consider what’s next in his NHL career. The Sharks’ captain is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1 and is coming off an incredible 38-goal regular season, but has had no extension talks with the front office according to Scott Burnside of The Athletic (subscription required) who examined the Pavelski situation in full earlier today. It seems extremely unlikely that Pavelski would leave the only organization he’s ever known, especially one that gave him an opportunity as a seventh-round pick, but GM Doug Wilson has played hardball as recently as 2017 when he watched Patrick Marleau chase a three-year deal in Toronto.
Carolina Hurricanes Hope To Keep Both Mrazek, McElhinney
Heading into the 2018-19 season, many questions were raised about the goaltending situation for the Carolina Hurricanes. The team had watched Scott Darling struggle mightily in the first year of his four-year $16.6MM deal, and made moves to insulate him with other veteran goaltenders. Petr Mrazek was signed to a one-year $1.5MM deal after he failed to receive a qualifying offer from the Philadelphia Flyers, and just before the season began the team claimed veteran backup Curtis McElhinney from the Toronto Maple Leafs. That duo would end up being the team’s full-time tandem during the season after Darling was quickly buried in the minor leagues.
In the playoffs, Mrazek would start and play well for the team before eventually relinquishing the role to McElhinney. Both men weren’t good enough to stop the bleeding against the powerhouse Boston Bruins, but their performance in getting the Hurricanes to an Eastern Conference Final was still admirable. Unfortunately, both are scheduled for unrestricted free agency this summer. It’s not clear what their camps are thinking, but Hurricanes GM Don Waddell made his intentions clear today when he told reporters including Chip Alexander of the Raleigh News & Observer that Carolina’s goal was to bring back both Mrazek and McElhinney next season. Waddell also said there was no decision yet on whether to buy out Darling’s contract, despite the recent reports.
Trying to retain the pair makes sense on the surface. Mrazek posted a .914 save percentage in the regular season and went 23-14-3 for the team, while McElhinney continued his late-career renaissance with a 20-11-2 record and .912 save percentage. Both of those were leagues better than Darling has been since joining Carolina, and gave the team a reliable backbone in their Stanley Cup chase.
Still, they certainly also bring some risk. McElhinney will turn 36 on Thursday and has never played more than 33 games in a single season, which he did this year. Though he has been excellent for both Toronto and Carolina, the entire body of work—which also includes stops in Columbus, Calgary, Anaheim, Ottawa and Phoenix—is less attractive. Mrazek meanwhile has been one of the most frustratingly inconsistent goaltenders in the league since debuting in 2013 for the Detroit Red Wings. Showing flashes of absolute brilliance mixed with long stretches of poor play, committing long-term to him is only possible if you believe he has turned a corner. His overall performance in the playoffs, in which he posted just an .894 save percentage, should at least make the Hurricanes question that.
Obviously, either player could also decide to wait until July 1st and see what other offers they receive. Carolina also has young goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic waiting in the wings, fresh off a Goaltender of the Year award in the AHL. Nedeljkovic posted a .916 for the powerhouse Charlotte Checkers, and has a 6-2 record in the postseason. If the team can’t retain one or both of their free agent goaltenders, Nedeljokic could potentially step into an NHL role next season, though goaltending depth is obviously extremely important for a team with their eyes on the Stanley Cup.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Snapshots: Free Agency, Nash, PWHPA
Free agency is just around the corner and speculation has already begun regarding the landing spots of some top talent. Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) released his early list of the top 20 unrestricted free agents, and Artemi Panarin‘s name lands on top with little surprise. The Columbus Blue Jackets’ superstar is expected to have many suitors this offseason, but Custance and others have suggested there may be a deal coming earlier than July 1.
The scribe writes that “it would be a bit surprising” if Panarin makes it that far, instead examining a potential sign-and-trade scenario in order to secure an eight-year contract. That would get Columbus some assets back, though given the lack of historical precedent it is not clear how valuable a move like that would be. Once again Panarin is linked to former head coach Joel Quenneville, who is now with the Florida Panthers.
- Rick Nash may not be playing professional hockey anymore, but that doesn’t mean he’s completely given up the game. Aaron Portzline of The Athletic (subscription required) details how Nash has been shadowing Blue Jackets’ GM Jarmo Kekalainen for some time, including attending the current IIHF World Championship. Nash will also attend the NHL Entry Draft with the Columbus contingent, though there is no official word on what his role with the organization will be moving forward. The former star forward was forced to retire due to health concerns stemming from several concussions over his long career.
- Kendall Coyne Schofield, Hilary Knight, Marie-Philip Poulin and many other players have announced the formation of the Professional Women’s Hockey Players’ Association. The organization “will serve as a vehicle dedicated to promoting and supporting the creation of a single, viable women’s professional league in North America.” Earlier this year more than 200 top players announced a boycott of the NWHL and other leagues for this season, as they seek a more financially sustainable league that can provide the resources required for them to play at a high level.
Buffalo Sabres, Jeff Skinner Extension Talks “Extremely Positive”
The Buffalo Sabres needed to find a coach before doing anything else this offseason. Their new bench boss would be a huge influence on the direction of the team this summer, and now that they have Ralph Krueger locked up as their man, they can move onto other important decisions. One of those is regarding the pending unrestricted free agency of sniper Jeff Skinner, but things seem headed towards an extension if you ask GM Jason Botterill. He was on WGR 550 in Buffalo earlier this week and explained where things stand:
A contract is never done until you get it signed, but our discussions with Jeff have been extremely positive. I think it’s been a relationship that has worked out very well for the Buffalo Sabres, and I think it’s a relationship that has worked out very well for Jeff.
We went through the coaching search here, sometimes people get a little impatient, but we wanted to make sure we went through the process correctly. I think what’s going on with Jeff and ourselves now is there was never going to be an extension announced before a coach was hired. A coach is now hired, we’ll continue our discussions there and get the chance to sit down with Jeff and go over things with how we see him fitting in, and how Ralph is going to coach this team and how he will interact with his players and his structure moving forward. Then we’ll hopefully find a way to get a deal done. From our standpoint, our discussions with both Jeff and Newport Sports have been extremely positive.
Skinner, 27, was listed fourth on our Midseason UFA Power Rankings, behind only Erik Karlsson, Artemi Panarin and Mark Stone, who has since signed an extension with the Vegas Golden Knights. Even with the emergence of Matt Duchene into a postseason force for the Columbus Blue Jackets, the Sabres forward may be the second best offensive weapon available on the open market if he doesn’t reach a new deal in the next six weeks. After struggling to maintain his high pace last season in Carolina, a fresh start in Buffalo rejuvenated Skinner’s career and his instant chemistry with Jack Eichel led to a career-high 40 goals and 63 points. Easily pacing the Sabres in goals means his departure would be a devastating hit to their offense for 2019-20, but handing out a blank check is always risky.
Luckily, the Sabres have put themselves in an extremely flexible financial situation even with their $80MM commitment to Eichel. The team has just four one-way contracts that extend through the 2020-21 season—Eichel, Kyle Okposo, Carter Hutton and Rasmus Ristolainen—and plenty of money coming off the books if they want it to. A deal for Skinner that could reach as many as eight years with a healthy raise from his $5.75MM cap hit would come with a lot of expectations, but also not cripple the Sabres finances if he takes a slight step backwards. As one of the youngest players on the free agent market—Skinner turned 27 just three days ago—and with an outstanding 244 goals in 661 career games, there may be no better bet available.
Western Notes: Dunn, Kampf, Stralman, Brown
The St. Louis Blues will be without defenseman Vince Dunn on Sunday for the ever-important Game 5 as Blues head coach Craig Berube said the 22-year-old won’t travel with the team to San Jose after taking a puck to the face during Game 3 on Wednesday, according to St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Tom Timmermann.
Berube added that Dunn will be day-to-day with an upper-body injury and he is believed to be dealing with concussion issues. He was well enough to attend Friday’s Game 4’s 2-1 victory, however.
“It’s great,” Berube said after the game. “Dunner’s back here and he’s around his teammates. … It’s awesome to see him. It’s a day-to-day thing right now. I’m not sure exactly when he’s gonna be available to play. So we’ll have to see how that goes, but it’s good to see him around for sure.”
The team did have some good news as winger Sammy Blais is expected to play in Game 5 despite having to leave Game 4 Friday after taking a Brent Burns‘ shot off his foot.
- The Athletic’s Scott Powers (subscription required) writes that the Chicago Blackhawks have begun negotiating with restricted free agent center David Kampf. The 24-year-old was signed to a two-year entry-level contract out of the Czech Republic League and has been a success in Chicago, but after making $925K the past two years, he’s in line for a slight raise. While Kampf’s eight goals and 30 points in 109 NHL games isn’t impressive, the forward has been one of Chicago’s best defensive forwards and is expected to be the team’s third or fourth-line center next season. He is eligible for arbitration if the two sides can’t agree to terms.
- The Province’s Patrick Johnson writes that although Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Anton Stralman will be one of the more interesting defensemen on the free agency market this summer, he doubts that the 33-year-old defenseman would be a good fit for the Vancouver Canucks. Even with a full season of star prospect Quinn Hughes, the team desperately needs to upgrade its defense. However, Johnson writes with the team trying to re-sign Alexander Edler and trying to get one more year out of veteran Chris Tanev, the team likely won’t want to add another veteran defenseman to their lineup.
- The Athletic’s Allan Mitchell (subscription required) writes that the Edmonton Oilers should consider helping the Toronto Maple Leafs with their salary cap issues by taking forward Connor Brown off their hands. The scribe believes that the 25-year-old Brown, who has seen his offensive numbers drop in each of the last years, might be the perfect addition for a team that is loaded at the center position, but could use plenty of talent at the wing position. Brown was a former junior teammate of Connor McDavid, suggesting he might make the perfect winger for the star center. Brown scored 20 goals in his first full season with the Maple Leafs back in the 2016-17 season, with many believing he could be a consistent 20-goal scorer. However, that number dropped by six in each of the next two years, to 14 in 2017-18 and then to just eight goals this season. Brown will make $2.1MM next season before becoming a restricted free agent, but the scribe believes that if teamed with McDavid, Brown could easily go back to his 20-goal scoring ways and give the Oilers another offensive weapon that they desperately need. Of course, everything depends on what Toronto would be asking for Brown.