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Ken Holland

Detroit’s Contract Pitfalls

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Detroit is currently dealing with one of the more contentious RFA negotiations in recent memory, as Tomas Tatar has refused a multi-year deal and is not happy with the franchise’s perception of him. The team also needs to negotiate a new contract for Andreas Athanasiou, a speedy center with flashy hands and a lot of upside. The major problem, however, is the cap space with which GM Ken Holland has to operate.

Detroit’s perilous situation is bizarre primarily because it has been largely self-inflicted, and unnecessarily so. The team already has an under-performing and vastly overpaid defensive group, but decided to bring in declining veteran Trevor Daley to a $3.17 MM, three-year deal. This places the team with $2.28 MM left in cap space while still needing to lock up Athanasiou and Tatar. It should be noted that 37 year-old Johan Franzen has been on long-term injured reserve since 2015, so they should be able to allocate his $3.95 MM salary to that reserve upon resumption of the season. Considering the apparently lax interpretation of the off-season rules, this effectively allows Holland $6.23 MM left to sign his two players. Theoretically, it could be enough, but in reality money will need to move out.

Tatar turned down a 5-year deal worth $5 MM per season, according to Michigan Live’s Ansar Khan. If that AAV isn’t enough, which it appears not to be, Holland is in a bit of a bind. Tatar was their only player to break 20 goals (25), and finished third on the team in points behind only Henrik Zetterberg and Gustav Nyquist. His offensive capabilities are pretty essential to a team hurting so badly for consistent production. Tatar wants his $6 MM, and there’s a good chance he’ll get it. Holland could try to deal Tatar before his arbitration date, but the return might not be as productive as Holland would like. If the parties do go to arbitration, Tatar will only need to sign for one season, which would almost assure his eventual departure.

Athanasiou will come cheaper and likely on a shorter term. If Holland can secure the player for under $2 MM, it would be a boon. The wiser move would be to try to extend the player on a longer deal in hopes that he becomes a bargain in the near future. Unfortunately, with the Tatar situation taking precedence, it seems an unlikely scenario. Even still, his measly $2 MM would put the Wings over the cap ceiling, even with Franzen on LTIR. So who would be on the outs?

Petr Mrazek was almost lost to the Vegas Golden Knights through the expansion draft, and with Jared Coreau playing stellar in the Grand Rapids, he seems the most likely candidate to move. He only costs $4 MM and after his down season, Holland would like to give Jimmy Howard the reigns back. Unfortunately, the Mrazek “attitude” rumors may have lessened his trade value. Perhaps even more importantly, the goaltending carousel has ground to a halt, with essentially every team securing a starter for the coming year.

Justin Abdelkader is on a really poor contract, complete with a no-trade clause, worth $4.25 MM AAV for the next six seasons. After a seven goal season, however, there won’t be many teams chomping at the bit for his services. Darren Helm didn’t fare much better offensively, but with a $3.85 MM contract and only four years on his deal, he’s not entirely unmovable. Again, he has a no-trade clause to complicate matters. There are the defensemen, such as Jonathan Ericsson, but with three years left and already declining at 33, he would also net little in return. Luke Glendening is an interesting option, as he is the cheapest of this group. Despite his two-way prowess, a forward with 3 goals in a season, even at a mere $1.8 MM, will still be a tough sell.

Ultimately, the Wings have overpaid a number of players and the contracts are for far too long. The amount of no-trade clauses handed out is an absurd hindrance when a team is trying to rebuild or retool. With 8 players on the roster with some sort of movement-limiting clause, Holland has few options to give himself relief. The worst case scenario would be to lose Tatar, but the team has truly painted itself into a corner regardless of who is shipped out. With an aging defense and an uninspiring offense, the Wings’ return to relevance will only be delayed from here on in.

Free Agent Profile: Jaromir Jagr

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Not many believed that Jagr would be left without a contract over a full week into July. While many Florida fans believed GM Dale Tallon was looking to impress his vision on the franchise in an aggressive way, a return at a reduced cost seemed possible. Barring that, Jagr was sure to draw interest from offense-starved squads. He was listed as our 13th best available UFA for a reason, and yet, there’s been little to no chatter on the Czech star.

Jagr has seen a dip in his value, undeniably. He scored 11 less goals than the previous season; that said, he’s still a lock for 40 points. He’s slowed down quite noticeably, and one can only imagine that is the crux of his issue in attracting suitors. His vision and hands are still world-class, but his speed is an encumbrance to whichever line he’s on. That said, he’s a positive impact player in terms of analytics and fancy possession stats. If you look at his HERO chart (a handy bar-graph representation of advanced stats such as shots suppressed and generated), he performs well above the “prototypical” second-liner. No one in the analytics community seems to understand how such a consistent performer can be left unclaimed at this date. People constantly criticize players like Jagr for poor defensive qualities. There is an element of truth to these claims, as he is certainly hustling harder going north than south. But results, and actual goals against for his lines over the years, show that perhaps he knows something we don’t.

The game is changing, and with faster teams heading deeper into the playoffs, Jagr’s ability to fend off attackers and maintain a cycle is less valuable than it was previously. More rush play, more dump and chase, and less east-west movement through the neutral zone is the way many teams are hoping to push the pac and tilt the ice in their favor. Signing Jagr doesn’t fit that trendy ideology, and that’s the main holdup at this juncture. The amount of teams who are willing to slow the game down, even just on special teams, are becoming fewer and fewer. Ultimately, he will find a home, but it could be a drastic reduction in pay and icetime. Jagr was already getting acclimated to a sheltered role with short shifts, but he may be even more of a utility skater in his new home.

If for nothing else, Jagr is a magician on the powerplay and can pass the puck with ease. He would be a wonderful asset merely as a leader, whose experience and off-ice attributes would benefit the growth of younger players.

Potential Suitors

We originally projected that Jagr would return to the Florida Panthers, as we also believed would be the case for Thomas Vanek. We were wrong on both fronts, as Dale Tallon has opted instead for a massive roster shakeup. Jagr quipped on Twitter that he had no calls this July 1st, although that claim may merely be an attempt to garner greater interest.

A New Jersey reunion might be in the cards. They finished 29th in goals for and Jagr could be relegated to 3rd-line duty with a healthy roster after all of GM Ray Shero’s shuffling. He’s certainly not going to lead the team in scoring, but in the tough Metro division it’s difficult to see them making the playoffs anyway. In what should be a year to build upon, and with multiple youngsters (Nico Hischier, Pavel Zacha) looking to cement themselves in the league, what better role model than Jagr to provide leadership and calm? The team could also do to add NHL proven forwards – they have the second fewest organizational contracts at 33, and many are not ready for prime-time.

Although they’re not the ideal landing spot, the New York Islanders seemingly always need a little extra fire power. They too have the disadvantage of trying to survive in the high-flying Metro, and Tavares could use another piece on the powerplay to bring it back to respectability (they finished with a 15% conversion rate in 2016-17). Again, his leadership abilities on a relatively young squad would provide a good example. He can also still manufacture chances on his own, and outside of Tavares, the team still struggles with that for long stretches. Pair him with one of their many two-way forwards, such as Josh Bailey, and his minimal defensive shortcomings won’t be as impactful. Cap room on an internal basis is an issue, but Jagr is getting cheaper by the day.

Many teams could take a flier on a one year deal. At 45 years-old, it would be highly unlikely to make a significant commitment to him. Arizona and Colorado could both certainly use the offensive help, but they both moved on from their own free agent old-timers in Shane Doan in Jarome Iginla, so both seem unlikely. Carolina already added a greybeard in Justin Williams, but scoring depth couldn’t hurt there. Vancouver is already incredibly old, so why not double down at this point and help out your special teams? And there’s always the possibility that Jagr finally decides to take a paycut to chase after a final championship. It has been since 1992 for him.

Expected Contract

Jagr will continue to wait away in free agency limbo for some time. This may be his final contract, but it’s difficult to determine how important competitiveness of the team will be to him. I think he stays in the East, namely New Jersey, for one year at a measly $1.75 MM. It won’t delay the rebuild, which is necessary in Newark, but it will keep the team just above water in the division. I’m not certain Shero wants to gamble on a total tank, as we saw how well that worked for Colorado in the recent draft. They ultimately need proven forwards to round out the roster, and the price is right to buy low.

Girardi Drawing Interest After Buy-Out

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Although he was just bought out by the New York Rangers due to meager performance relative to his pay, multiple NHL teams have shown interest in signing the 33 year-old. Detroit, who is supposedly in the middle of a rebuild, seem compelled to inquire, according to The Athletic’s Craig Custance. The Grand Rapids Griffins championship run will provide an infusion of youth who have won at the professional level, and yet the defense remains a primary concern for GM Ken Holland. Missing the playoffs for multiple seasons may not be palatable to an organization so accustomed to success. It’s uncertain as to where Girardi would slot if he did sign in Detroit. The Wings have 7 defenseman on the roster (when you include RFA Xavier Ouellet), and 4 of those have no-trade clauses.

Also heavily rumored are the Tampa Bay Lightning. Elliotte Friedman stated that the team reached out to the defender, and that it is unknown how that conversation went. Newsday’s Steve Zipay made the connection to current Bolt Ryan Callahan, himself an ex-New York Ranger, with whom Girardi has close ties. Tampa GM Steve Yzerman does seem to like the old-school defensemen, and the team does have only 4 blueliners under contract while they negotiate terms with Slater Koekkoek. The team was already linked to Kevin Shattenkirk via the Tampa Bay Times’ Joe Smith, and players such Brendan Smith and Karl Alzner could find a decent fit on a second pairing. There are certainly more marquee names available out there, but perhaps the prices will become too steep for Yzerman’s liking. Girardi would almost certainly come cheap, and Tampa seems destined to make a push in the Atlantic after a down season – so it’s not an undesirable location.

The market that has surfaced for Girardi is quite remarkable considering his circumstances. Girardi has had three consecutive poor possession seasons which crescendo-ed this year with an 8th-worst Corsi 5-0n-5 finish among all defenders. In a league which is heading in the direction of deeper, more encompassing analytics, Girardi seems to buck every trend out there. He is probably still an NHL defender, but his immobile brand of defense is losing effectiveness fast and his shot-blocking may be beginning to take a toll on his body. His skating is sub-par and his offensive capabilities are very limited. He’s a good penalty killer, but at even strength is generally a net-negative regardless of how sheltered his minutes are. Still, as a veteran on a cheap contract, he might be worth a flier to regain form on a short-term deal. With such a poor UFA offering, it seems he has some value left and should be able to find a new contract with little pain.

Offseason Keys: Detroit Red Wings

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While the expansion draft is set to headline a busy NHL offseason, there are still several other storylines for each team in the months ahead. Here is a closer look at what lies ahead for the Detroit Red Wings.

As the saying goes, all good things must come to an end and that’s what happened to Detroit this season as their quarter-century playoff streak came to a halt.  GM Ken Holland doesn’t appear to be willing to kick off more of a full-scale rebuild just yet but even with that in mind, there are a few key things he should be looking to accomplish this offseason.

Fix The Goalie Logjam

The Wings had one of the priciest goalie tandems in the NHL last season with Jimmy Howard ($5.29MM) and Petr Mrazek ($4MM).  Both have shown themselves to be capable of being starters but were basically pushed into a platoon situation when both were healthy last season.

Apr 13, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Detroit Red Wings goalie Jimmy Howard (35) skates during warm ups in game one of the first round of the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY SportsThere is likely going to be a large amount of goalie turnover across the league this summer and Holland would be wise to try to capitalize on that.  At just 25, Mrazek is the likely keeper which makes Howard and the two years remaining on his contract expendable.  The 33 year old saw his value get rebuilt somewhat this season with a strong 2.10 GAA and a .927 SV% in 26 games.

In theory, Detroit could try to incentivize Vegas to select Howard as their expansion choice but if that’s a no-go, there are other teams that will be on the lookout for goalie help.  With youngster Jared Coreau waiver eligible beginning next season and seemingly ready for a longer NHL look, Holland may want to try to avoid taking on another goalie in a return but that may not be possible.

Shore Up The Back End

Detroit has over $21MM tied up in their defense corps for next season (with Xavier Ouellet to re-sign as a restricted free agent) but their returns on that money have been diminishing.  Niklas Kronwall has lost a couple of steps while Jonathan Ericsson also is starting to break down.  That placed a lot more pressure on Mike Green (who only has one year left on his deal) and Danny DeKeyser who isn’t a prototypical number one defender.

With the likes of Ouellet, Ryan Sproul, and Nick Jensen, their depth is decent but Holland needs to find a way to bring in another impact defender to allow the youngsters to develop at more of a steady pace.  There aren’t many higher-end blueliners available in free agency which could force them to the trade market in a swap of bigger contracts.

Free Up Cap Space

Another reason why the free agent market isn’t a likely looking spot for the Wings is their salary cap situation.  To put it nicely, it’s not particularly pretty.  As things stand, they have a little over $67MM committed to just 16 players for next season, per CapFriendly.  Restricted free agents Tomas Tatar and Andreas Athanasiou (as well as Ouellet) will take up a decent-sized chunk of the remaining room.  They will get a bit of relief through long-term injury once Johan Franzen returns there next season but that’s still not much room to work with if Holland is trying to add parts to win in the short-term.

There are some bloated contracts for the team to try to navigate through including forwards Justin Abdelkader (six years remaining at $4.25MM) and Darren Helm (four years left at $3.85MM) as well as Kronwall (two years at $4.75MM per season) and Ericsson (three years, $4.25MM per year remaining), not to mention Howard’s deal.  In a perfect world, they could find a taker for one of these contracts without taking much salary back but with a lot of the higher spending teams projected to be tight to the cap once against next year, that doesn’t seem likely to happen.

Instead, the more likely outcome may wind up being simply swapping one not-so-good contract for another while trying to save a few bucks in the process while hoping the new player winds up being a better fit.  It’s not an ideal situation long-term (especially with Dylan Larkin and Anthony Mantha among those to need new deals after 2017-18) but that may be the only realistic possibility of player movement in what is looking like will be a fairly quiet offseason for the Red Wings as things currently stand.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Detroit’s Uncertain Future

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The Detroit Red Wings missed the playoffs for the first time in 25 years in 2016-17. Not seeing the winged wheel on the ice is something deeply unfamiliar to many, and Detroit’s management is hoping that it won’t become a trend. However, there is definitely concern going forward as to what direction the team will head. While the team is technically going through a rebuild, effectively doing so can be quite difficult when you have so many aging players taking up spots and cap dollars. There are also questions as to whether any extended period of failure would be embraced by management, as fan-site Winging it in Motown wondered earlier this month. The strategy for GM Ken Holland is going to be complicated, as fans might need to grow accustomed to losing for a brief spell if the team is to strengthen its core.

Firstly, they will need to decide which players are part of the core and which are accessory pieces. There were good signs this off-season when Holland decided to sell assets, including Thomas Vanek, Tomas Jurco, Brendan Smith, and Steve Ott. This is a solid portent that there will be future moves, but there is room for doubt. For example, the 36 year-old Henrik Zetterberg has 4 years left on his contract at $6.083 MM, while the 33 year-old Frans Nielsen was just signed to his long-term deal, good for another 5 years at $5.25 MM. Justin Abdelkader and Darren Helm still have plenty left in the tank, but at $4.25 MM and $3.8 MM respectively, and years of term, is a full rebuild truly so feasible? Niklas Kronwall is another well-paid veteran at 36 years-old, and he has two more seasons under contract.

Then there is the goaltending situation. Detroit is paying over $9 million dollars in contracts to their two tenders, both of which have had their difficulties. Jimmy Howard had what could be considered a bounceback year, posting a .927 save percentage after the awful .906 dip the season before. The caveat – he only started 26 games. The other half of the duo, Petr Mrazek, received the bulk of the starts – 50 in all. Unfortunately, his stats took a nosedive to a .901 save percentage, as he struggled mightily behind his flightless team. To complicate matters, Howard has a modified No-Trade Clause, under which he can list the 10 teams he would accept a trade. The obvious decision seems to be that they will bank on Howard going forward and try to flip Mrazek to a team in need of help in the crease – he only has one year remaining at $4 MM before he needs his contract re-negotiated. If they are unable to do so, Mrazek would likely be snagged by Vegas in the expansion draft. But management obviously showed confidence in Mrazek’s abilities this season, sticking through him despite his impressively bad statistics. Perhaps Howard is the one on the way out of Motown. But if Mrazek flounders yet again, what does the pipeline hold?

The team as a whole has already allotted $67.09 MM to 18 players (two of whom are now on LTIR), and they need to sign RFAs Andreas Athanasiou, Xavier Ouellet, and Tomas Tatar. Only two players are coming off the books, the moderately paid forwards Joe Vitale and Drew Miller, either of whom could potentially re-sign. In terms of prospects, the talented winger Evgeny Svechnikov is the most promising potential addition. He posted 20 goals and 51 points in his rookie season with the Grand Rapids Griffins and impressed with his size. Anthony Mantha continues to be intriguing, and Athanasiou definitely has the talent to take another step forward. However, there isn’t a ton of help on the horizon in terms of defense. A top-flight prospect here would do wonders for the squad going forward. With 11 picks in this year’s draft, in what is Holland’s last contracted season as GM, decisions with incredible importance lie ahead. Will Hockeytown fully commit to a long-term rebuild, or will they make runs at competing in the relatively weak Atlantic division with a mix of aging and inexperienced players?

Snapshots: Red Wings, Krejci, Marleau, Couture

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Detroit’s 25 year streak of reaching the playoffs is all but set to come to an end this season as the team sits dead last in the Eastern Conference.  While GM Ken Holland isn’t surprised that it hasn’t been smooth sailing for the Red Wings this season, he told Ted Kulfan of the Detroit News that he wasn’t expecting the team to struggle as much as they have:

“I expected more, I expected we’d be in the thick of things. I didn’t know if we’d be in the playoffs or not. When you look at the standings in our division and in the Eastern Conference, there a lot of teams, some of them are going to miss the playoffs by a point or two and some of them are going to get in by a point or two.”

Kulfan notes that free agency isn’t an avenue that Holland and the Wings are likely to pursue this summer.  Part of the problem is the weaker than usual free agent class while the team is also handcuffed by some above-market value contracts that the GM has handed out in recent years to players like Darren Helm, Danny DeKeyser, and several others.  As a result, they’ll have to hope to free up some cap room either via the trade or market or perhaps in expansion if the Golden Knights opt to take a pricey player off their hands.

Other notes from around the league:

  • Bruins center David Krejci left practice early on Monday and interim head coach Bruce Cassidy told CSN New England’s Joe Haggerty that he is dealing with an upper body injury. However, it’s not expected to keep him out of Boston’s lineup when they take on the Predators on Tuesday night.  If it turns out he’s unavailable, it’s expected that Ryan Spooner would jump in to fill his spot on the second line.
  • With Logan Couture out of the lineup, the Sharks will shift Patrick Marleau back to center for the time being, notes CSN Bay Area’s Kevin Kurz. Marleau is a natural center but has only played there four times this year as San Jose has opted to play him on the wing instead.  In a separate column, Kurz provided an update on Couture.  Head coach Peter DeBoer was pleased by how much the swelling went down today and while he will miss some time, it doesn’t appear that it will be a long-term injury.  There’s no timetable for a potential return date yet although the team is expected to further update his situation in the near future.

Snapshots: Pronger, Goldobin, Aaltonen

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When Chris Pronger was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2015, it marked the end of an outstanding career. Stanley Cup winner, Hart trophy winner, Norris trophy winner, All-Star. Everything was accomplished, and yet something remained—a contract. Pronger was then, and still is now under a player contract with an NHL team, and though he’ll never play a game for the Arizona Coyotes—who traded for his empty contract just days before the Hall of Fame induction ceremony—he was technically a part of their organization. His deal will expire at the end of this season, and there is now something else on his mind for the future.

Pierre LeBrun of TSN writes in his latest column that though Pronger is happy with his current position at the Department of Player Safety, he’d like a chance to apprentice under an established GM in hopes of one day running a team of his own. Pronger reached out to former rival Steve Yzerman to learn what he could about the Tampa Bay Lightning GM’s path to the front office, which included time under Ken Holland in Detroit. Though he had all the physical tools to make him great in the game, it was his hockey mind that made him a legend. As former teammate Jamie McLennan put it in LeBrun’s piece: “His ability to adapt and learn in any situation is what makes [him] special.” Don’t be surprised to see Pronger’s name pop up in a front office as soon as next season.

  • It wasn’t just a regular flu for Vancouver Canucks forward Nikolay Goldobin. The young player says that he didn’t eat for five days and has lost fifteen pounds while he’s been out. While he is feeling better, he won’t travel to Edmonton with the team when they take on the Oilers tomorrow night. Instead, he’ll hit the practice rink and try to get back to where he was before falling ill. The 21-year old was acquired in exchange for Jannik Hansen at the trade deadline, and scored a single goal in the three games he played for Vancouver before being kept out of the lineup.
  • James Mirtle of the Athletic provides some context for the Maple Leafs newest signing Miro Aaltonen. One source told him that the Finnish forward has a 50-50 shot to play in the NHL, but represents no downside for the team. He’ll be on just a one-year deal, and will play for the Marlies next season if he doesn’t crack the NHL team out of camp. Chris Johnston of Sportsnet adds that Aaltonen is most comfortable on the left wing, an area of need for the Maple Leafs. The team currently only has James van Riemsdyk as a true goal-scoring left winger, with the other three, Zach Hyman, Leo Komarov and Matt Martin, all being better suited to play in the bottom-half of a lineup (despite the fact that Hyman has played on Auston Matthews’ wing all season). Even in the minor leagues Kasperi Kapanen and Brendan Leipsic, the prospects closest to making an NHL impact both play the right side most often.

Red Wings Notes: Vanek, Larkin, Mantha, Holland, Howard

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The Red Wings have had a few discussions with Thomas Vanek’s agent Steve Bartlett regarding a possible contract extension, reports ESPN’s Craig Custance (Insider required).  However, it will take a no-move clause for Vanek to consider signing prior to the trade deadline.

The reason for that is the upcoming expansion draft.  Bartlett wants to avoid a scenario where he signs now and then is left unprotected in that draft, creating the risk that he could wind up with the Golden Knights; a full no-move clause would alleviate that but also force Detroit to leave another forward exposed.  From the Red Wings perspective, that may not be the best move especially considering they appear to be heading towards selling at the deadline.  With that in mind, Custance argues that GM Ken Holland would be wise to move Vanek now even though he has expressed a willingness to remain with the Wings beyond this season.

[Related: Vanek’s trade candidate profile]

Other news and notes from Detroit:

  • Skating is an area of focus for a pair of young players but for entirely different reasons, writes Dana Wakiji of the Wings’ team site. Head coach Jeff Blashill noted that they’ve been working with center Dylan Larkin to stop more often instead of just playing with speed at all times.  While Larkin’s speed was a major weapon early on last season, he has been guilty of trying to play too quickly at times this year which have contributed to some struggles.  On the flip side, Blashill noted that they’re working with winger Anthony Mantha to skate more frequently instead of stopping and watching or slowing the play down.
  • In a reader mailbag, MLive’s Ansar Khan suggests that Holland is likely to retain his job beyond this season. With the team set to miss the playoffs for the first time in a quarter-century, some have wondered if the timing would be right to turn the team over for someone else to build; Holland has held the GM title since 1997.  Khan also doesn’t expect a decision to be made regarding Blashill’s future and the rest of Detroit’s coaching staff until after the season.
  • Goalie Jimmy Howard was on the ice today but won’t be available to play before the Wings hit their bye week on February 22nd, reports George Sipple of the Detroit Free Press (Twitter link). Howard suffered a setback earlier this week as he continues to recover from a sprained MCL.  It’s expected that Howard will return to Grand Rapids of the AHL during the bye week with the hope that he’ll be able to get into another game down there.

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