Morgan’s Latest: Rangers, Montoya, Yakupov
Craig Morgan tackled a variety of topics today in his latest “Craig’s List” column on Today’s Slapshots. Among them, Morgan questions whether the New York Rangers’ hot start is sustainable. He cites the home-heavy early schedule that has seen the Rangers play eight of their first 12 games at MSG as one reason to doubt that the Blueshirts can maintain their level of play.
Additionally, as Morgan also notes, the team has received a lot of production from unexpected sources. Michael Grabner, for instance, already has seven goals and 10 points through 12 contests for the Rangers. Last season in Toronto, Grabner tallied just nine times in 80 games and has failed to crack the 20-goal mark in four years. It’s certainly unlikely Grabner will continue his torrid pace.
Morgan also singles out rookie winger Jimmy Vesey, who has six goals for the Blueshirts, as another player whose production is almost sure to fall off as the season wears on. Vesey never played more than 37 games in a single season while at Harvard and at some point will hit the proverbial “rookie wall.”
Finally, Morgan writes that the Rangers PDO (a combination of team’s shooting and save percentages) is likely set for regression. New York currently owns the 4th highest five-on-five PDO in the league at 104.29, buoyed in large part by a ridiculous 11.72% shooting percentage, tops in the league. However, it should be noted the Rangers also led the NHL in shooting percentage in 2015-16, converting 9% of their shots on goal at five-on-five into goals. Even if the Blueshirts shooting percentage regressed to that 9% figure, they’d still be among the highest scoring teams in the league.
Plus, while Morgan highlights several players whose production is probably unsustainable over the course of a full season, there are a few Rangers who have yet to play up to their potential. Derek Stepan, who has averaged 0.25 goals/game throughout his career, has just one through 12 to start this season. Mika Zibanejad is averaging nearly three shots on goal per contest but only two have found their way into the back of the net. His career shooting percentage is 10.6% suggesting if he was converting at his normal rate he’d have more goals on his ledger.
Naturally the Rangers should not be expected to win three out of every four games but this is a team that plays fast and has four lines that can score. Add to that one of the best goalies in the game in Henrik Lundqvist, and this Rangers team has the look of Stanley Cup contender. The question is, will they look like one next spring.
More from Morgan:
- Apparently, leaving Al Montoya in for all 10 goals in Montreal’s 10 – 0 loss Thursday night was not well received within the goalie community. Not surprisingly, no active tender expressed his opinion publicly but former NHL netminder Corey Hirsch was not shy about his feelings: “I just thought it was disrespectful to Montoya. It’s basically saying we care about Carey Price. We really don’t care what happens to you. It’s not like they’re scratching for their playoffs lives. It’s October, they were 9-0-1 and this is a guy who helped get them there when Price was out at the start of the year. For me, it took away from the team concept you try to build. If I’m a teammate, I’m looking around and saying ‘I guess he’s not afraid to throw one person to the wolves. Maybe I’m next.’” According to Morgan, several other former NHL goalies agreed with Hirsch’s sentiments though none wished to be quoted on the subject. Of course Montreal is no stranger to this type of controversy. Back in 1995, then Canadiens bench boss Mario Tremblay allowed Patrick Roy to remain in a game against Detroit in which the Hall of Fame goalie would eventually allow nine goals before being removed. As he stormed off the ice, Roy told team president Ronald Corey that he had played his final game for Montreal. He was dealt a few days later to Colorado and the rest is history.
- When the St. Louis Blues acquired Nail Yakupov from Edmonton it was expected they would be patient with the enigmatic but talented winger. That patience may already be starting to wear thin, however, as Morgan notes Yakupov was a healthy scratch Saturday night. Head coach Ken Hitchcock tried to deflect that line of thinking by pointing out the team has 14 forwards on the roster and he was just trying to get everyone in. “We’ve got lots of choices. We’ve got 14 forwards and everybody is going to play this weekend, so we’ll just figure it out from there. If he doesn’t play (Saturday), he’ll be back in (Sunday), so it’s not a big deal.” Evidently Hitchcock changed his mind as Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweeted earlier that the Blues were going with the same lineup as Saturday night with Yakupov and Ty Rattie scratched. Perhaps it’s a sign that Yakupov is falling out of favor already in St. Louis or maybe it’s just a tactic to try to motivate the former top overall draft pick.
Central Division Snapshots: Trouba, Mitchell, Hudler, Dowling
To this point, the only outcomes discussed in the Winnipeg/Jacob Trouba stalemate have involved either the player caving in and signing a new contract to remain with the Jets or a trade sending the RFA defenseman elsewhere. But as Rory Bolyen of Sportsnet writes, there is a possibility Trouba re-signs with the team as a way to help facilitate a trade down the road.
Bolyen references comments made by Nick Kypreos and Elliotte Friedman made yesterday on the Saturday’s Headlines segment. Kypreos states the a signed Trouba may have more value on the trade market than he does currently.
“Kurt Overhardt (Trouba’s agent) met with Kevin Cheveldayoff in Detroit. The feeling is it’s still pretty quiet on that front, but Winnipeg would love to sign this guy. And sign him to that same contract we’ve seen other defensemen get. The perception out there right now is that there is a deal, like a Morgan Rielly deal, for $5 million, six years.
“And that would still come with the thought that it could be tradable if in fact he signs this and starts playing again, that they could be in a position where teams would love the known certainty of Jacob Trouba for the next six years and it would be tradable if that’s the direction they wanted to go.”
Friedman added that Overhardt went through a similar situation with another client, Kyle Turris.
“Just so you know, Kyle Turris when he went through the situation, he signed on November 22, he was traded on December 17,”
Sitting out the season likely would do little to enhance Trouba’s value so getting back on the ice should be a priority. Obviously he would sacrifice the only leverage he possesses as Winnipeg could simply choose to hang onto the young blue liner instead of moving him. But perhaps it would be best for both sides if Trouba signs a new deal and gets back to playing while the Jets continue to pursue a trade to their liking.
Elsewhere in the Central Division:
- The Colorado Avalanche placed John Mitchell on waivers Friday and the veteran pivot, who is in his ninth NHL season, cleared Saturday. Mitchell, who has been held scoreless in five appearances this season, is in his fifth season with Colorado. He has reached double-figures in goals and tallied at least 20 points in each of his first four campaigns with the Avalanche. With only a projected $1.7MM in available cap space, the move was made in order to provide additional cap flexibility for GM Joe Sakic, as Mike Chambers of The Denver Post writes. The club can now send Mitchell down to their AHL affiliate in San Antonio at any point over the next 30 days to open up a spot on the roster for a younger player and/or to clear an additional $950K in salary cap space. Mitchell is in the last season of a three-year deal worth $5.4MM. He is making $1.9MM in actual salary.
- According to Mark Stepneski, who covers the Stars for the team’s official website, Dallas has placed Jiri Hudler on injured reserve due to an undisclosed illness and recalled forward Justin Dowling from Texas of the AHL. Hudler was signed this summer to provide secondary scoring but the 12-year veteran has played in just four games and has so far failed to record a point. Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News adds that since Dowling played both Friday and Saturday in California for the Texas Stars, head coach Lindy Ruff may elect to dress seven defensemen for tonight’s game. According to Ruff (via Heika), the team has no idea what specifically has afflicted Hudler as tests have revealed nothing.
Atlantic Notes: Canadiens, Senators, Lightning, Red Wings
How are the top four teams in the Atlantic Division really doing? There have been some surprises like Montreal’s red-hot start doused by a 10-0 drubbing at the hands of the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Ottawa Senators have played great defensively. And the Detroit Red Wings will need a lot more effort wise should they want to make a 26th consecutive playoff appearance. For now, let’s take a closer look at the top four teams in the division.
- Montreal Canadiens (9-1-1; 19 points; 1st place)
The Habs have benefitted from the return of Carey Price, who has been sparkling between the pipes, registering a 6-0 record, a .964 save percentage, and a goalie point share of 2.3. Al Montoya was fine through Friday night until he surrendered 10 goals in a ghastly game against Columbus. Shea Weber has also been a bright spot, making Marc Bergevin look smart early after the blockbuster trade netted him for P.K. Subban. Weber has ten points (4-6) in 11 games, and leads the Habs in average ice time, logging nearly 26 minutes per night.
- Ottawa Senators (7-3-0; 14 points; 2nd place)
The Sens have looked strong early, riding a three game winning streak through Friday despite playing a brutal game of musical chairs in net. Craig Anderson has been tending to his wife during a health concern and has been in and out Ottawa, understandably. Andrew Hammond suffered a lower body injury that will keep him out for at least a week. Despite this, the Sens have charged on, and contribution from Erik Karlsson, Kyle Turris, and Ryan Dzingel have helped. Though some think they’ll come back to earth, Guy Boucher has done well early on.
- Tampa Bay Lightning (6-4-1; 13 points; 3rd place)
The Bolts have scored a lot of goals–but they’ve also been fishing the puck out of the net. After jumping out to a 5-1 start, the Lightning have gone 1-3-1 since and suffered from Ben Bishop looking very human with a pedestrian .891 save percentage. Though some of this can be chalked up to struggles and on the blue line, Bishop is in a contract year and isn’t doing enough to help himself–or the Bolts should they look to deal him away instead of losing him for nothing. Steven Stamkos continues to be dominant, putting up 13 points (7-6), while Nikita Kucherov is tied with him (3-10).
- Detroit Red Wings (6-5-1; 13 points; 4th place)
Sure, they’re fourth, but the Red Wings record is probably the weakest of the any team in the Atlantic. The Bruins have two games in hand, and are only a point behind while the Leafs and Panthers are two points behind, with a game in hand. The Sabres, last in the division, are only three points out of the Wings’ spot. Thomas Vanek was a bright spot until a hip injury sidelined him for 2-3 weeks, but the defense has been abysmal. Worse, the Red Wings are coughing up leads in the third period. Personnel decisions have been questionable, too. The deployment of the OMG line–Steve Ott, Drew Miller and Luke Glendening–has been lampooned by many while younger players, such as Andreas Athanasiou, continue to get limited ice time. The Red Wings can’t afford to sit back should they want to make another playoff appearance. The division–and conference–are much better.
What’s Next For The Vancouver Canucks?
Last season the Vancouver Canucks reached their lowest point in more than fifteen years. They finished with 75 points, better than only the Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers, and missed the playoffs by a mile. As many believed that Daniel and Henrik Sedin were slowing down (as people do when they turn 35), the team looked like they should start a rebuild around some young forwards, and sell off assets for this season. After all, they were likely to get a top-three draft pick and already had Bo Horvat as a potential superstar.
Instead, they dropped to fifth in the draft and missed out on the big forwards, and then had an extremely confusing offseason period. First they traded one of their young prospects, Jared McCann for Erik Gudbranson, a still-young but much more expensive player who many in the analytics community believed was steady but mostly ineffective. McCann is off to a slow start in Florida (no points in eleven games), but still looks like he’ll eventually be a solid NHL centerman.
Next they signed Loui Eriksson, one of the summer’s biggest free agents to a huge six year, $36MM deal that will pay him through his age-36 season. Eriksson is a solid player, but hasn’t found any amount of success in Vancouver; he hasn’t scored a goal in 11 games after notching 30 last year.
Making a financial commitment of that level is usually reserved for teams looking to compete for a Stanley Cup in the near future, but Vancouver doesn’t seem like they’re poised to do that. They’re 4-6-1 this season, and are currently down 2-1 and being out-shot by those same Maple Leafs who finished lower than them last year. While Ryan Miller is having a solid year splitting time with the younger Jacob Markstrom, he’s a free agent next year (and 37 years old).
So what do the Canucks do now? Tearing down a team a few months after committing tens of millions in free agency isn’t a strong plan, but it may be what they have to do. Unfortunately for him, we’ll probably see the ousting of head coach Willie Desjardins, as is usually the case when things go downhill.
Pacific Division Notes: Flames, Canucks, Oilers
The Calgary Flames have struggled in the early stretches of this season, and some of their fans have found a scapegoat: “The Wideman Effect”.
The belief is that since January 2016, when Dennis Wideman ran linesman Don Henderson from behind, ending the latter’s career, the referees have been biased against the Flames. Despite the catchy name, it appears that the perception just isn’t true. Sportsnet’s Mark Spector broke down the penalties called in the 47 games before the incident and the 46 since. While the Flames did see a nearly 50 per cent increase in penalties last season after the attack, they still spent more time on the power-play. Moving to this season, the Flames are the second-most penalized team in the NHL after the Bruins. But they’ve also had the fifth-most power-play opportunities of any team.
Fans can look no further than the struggles of Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau, and Brian Elliott, and some questionable lineup choices on the blue line. Fresh off signing new contracts for $6.375MM and $6,75MM respectively, Monahan and Gaudreau have combined for just 11 points through 12 games. That’s eight less than last season at this time.
Elliott was traded for to stabilize the Flames wretched goaltending from last season, and so far has a sub-900 save percentage and a GAA over 3. Backup Chad Johnson has been better, but is still below league-average.
Finally, the Flames new coach Glen Gulutzan‘s usage of Dougie Hamilton has been weird this season. Hamilton scored 43 points last season while playing just under 20-minutes per game, but has fallen below 19 minutes this season and has been playing third-pairing at even-strength with lesser players.
- It has been an ugly stretch for the Canucks, who have lost seven games in a row after starting 4-0-0. They’ve fallen from first in the NHL to 26th. Even worse, the Canucks have scored just seven goals in that stretch and have been shutout in four of their last five games. The Blue Jackets outscored the Canucks’ entire losing streak in 38-minutes on Friday night, and they weren’t even done yet. Coach Willie Desjardins said he believes in their players and thinks they can turn it around, despite admitting this season’s losing has been tough on him. Desjardins is on the hot seat, considering GM Jim Benning believes the Canucks are a playoff team. However, Benning may not be entirely accurate in that belief: the Canucks are averaging just 1.45 goals-per-game, nearly a goal-and-a-half less than the league-average. Most prognosticators have the Canucks pegged as a real contender, not for the playoffs, but for the best draft lottery odds.
- Meanwhile, the Edmonton Oilers are sitting in first in the Western Conference after a hot start. They’ve cooled down a little, going 0-2-1 in the last week. Spector echoed a common sentiment about the team: if they can get their hands on a legit point-threat for their floundering power-play, then watch out. The Oilers were linked to Kevin Shattenkirk, P.K. Subban and Tyson Barrie over the summer, and more recently pending-UFA Brent Burns. In his article, Spector suggests Jason Garrison might be available in Tampa Bay as a cap casualty, though he’s another lefty; when healthy, five of the Oilers top-six defenders are left-handed.
Rookie Notes: Laine, Werenski, Marner
After writing yesterday about the incredible group of teenagers that inhabit the NHL right now, they continued to show why they deserve to have ink spilled every night about them. Patrik Laine, playing in his 12th NHL game scored his seventh goal (while seemingly practicing his golf game) which is the fastest since it took Evgeni Malkin just six games in 2006. The Finnish sniper now has 9 points in those 12 games, and is showing why he was drafted so high.
The Jets are obviously pretty high on Laine, as he’s averaging over 19 minutes a night which leads all rookie forwards this season. As fans watch him play, they must be reminded of another Finnish scoring winger that made an impact as a rookie once upon a time – Teemu Selanne‘s amazing rookie season started with 11 goals in his first 12 games, and ended with 76.
- The idea that defensemen take longer to develop than forwards is being thrown out the window in Columbus, as Zach Werenski continues to dominate in his rookie season. The Blue Jackets are currently tearing the Montreal Canadiens apart (8-0 as this article is written), and Werenski is a big part of it. Though he has just one assist tonight, he’s also the quarterback of an effective powerplay that has gone 4/5 in the game. This 19-year old blueliner was drafted eighth overall in 2015 and is providing huge dividends already for the Blue Jackets; they’ll be 5-3-1 after tonight, with Werenski scoring (at least) nine points.
- Though Mitch Marner wasn’t included in the original post, he probably should have been. His start with the Maple Leafs has been overshadowed slightly by Auston Matthews, but the former fourth-overall pick has played extremely well in his own right. Two goals last night led the Maple Leafs to victory in Buffalo, a place they’ve had trouble winning in for years. Though Marner now has eight points in eleven contests, it’s his defensive play that is repeatedly mentioned by head coach Mike Babcock. The diminutive winger has nine blocked shots on the season, which leads all Toronto forwards.
Jets “Gauging Interest” On Alexander Burmistrov
Winnipeg Jets’ forward Alexander Burmistrov has just one point through his first ten games, and has seen less than 15 minutes of ice time in each of them. Now, according to a tweet from Gary Lawless of TSN, the Jets are “gauging trade interest” on the 25-year old.
Obviously, general managers gauge interest on many players at many times, and it doesn’t mean they’re looking to trade them. In Burmistrov’s case though, it does seem like his favor has soured somewhat and he could be on his way out. After scoring just 21 points last season despite his playing time actually increasing down the stretch, he’s now been relegated to the fourth line most nights and almost removed from the powerplay entirely.
While trading him at this point would represent a case of selling-low for the Jets, perhaps his eighth-overall pedigree and relative youth could still command a solid return. Burmistrov clearly has skill, as he showed during his time in the KHL; the forward scored 63 points in 107 games at a very young age. With the Jets struggling out of the gate, perhaps adding a different type of player could give them a boost and vault them back into playoff contention in the Western Conference. If not, fans and coaches alike might just have to hope Burmistrov can find his game and become the player the Jets’ (then Thrashers) envisioned when they selected him in 2010.
Snapshots: Kovalchuk, Sabres, Kings
Could former NHL star Ilya Kovalchuk be looking to follow in Alexander Radulov‘s footsteps next summer?
KHL analyst Aivis Kalniņš believes Kovalchuk wants to return to the NHL. The Russian sniper retired from the NHL back in 2013 in order to play in the KHL after 11 seasons in North America. He was just three seasons into a controversial 15-year, $100MM contract when he retired.
Kalniņš reported that CSKA has begun contract talks with former NHLers Kovalchuk and Viktor Tikhonov; while Tikhonov is considered close to an extension, Kovalchuk is not. It’s a similar situation to Radulov, in that CSKA attempted to sign him but he chose to leave money on the table to give the NHL another go.
Whether or not the NHL allows Kovalchuk to return is another question. Because he signed his voluntary retirement papers, all 30 NHL teams would have to approve the move. It’s unlikely that 29 teams would approve a competitor’s bid to sign a former consistent 30-plus goal scorer.
- Brayton J. Wilson of WGR 550 in Buffalo reported a hard-to-believe stat about the Sabres. With their win over Minnesota, the Sabres are now 4-3-2, or one game over 0.500. Wilson reported that this is the first time the Sabres have been over 0.500 since the third game of the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season. That’s 299 games ago, and a sign of the harsh realities of being a struggling franchise in the NHL.
- After being shut out for the third consecutive game, Los Angeles Kings coach Darryl Sutter told reporters his message to the team was “there’s nobody coming in on a white horse to play goal for us or score goals or to come up [from the minors].” The Kings have approximately $1MM in salary cap space, despite placing the injured Jonathan Quick on LTIR. While Quick’s injury does give them some space in the interim, that would go away when he returns in three months, which rules out trading for Jaroslav Halak and likely Ondrej Pavelec too.
Red Wings Notes: Leadership Questions
George Sipple of the Detroit Free Press writes that while Detroit Red Wings head coach Jeff Blashill appreciates Henrik Zetterberg taking one for the team, the Wings’ poor play against both Florida and Boston rests with him. From Blashill:
Ultimately, it’s on me. That’s my job … to make sure they’re ready. I appreciate Henrik saying that. I would say this — without question, you have to look yourself in the mirror and make sure you’re ready to go. We had too many guys not ready to go.
Zetterberg commented that it was on him to prepare the team better, and that Detroit needs to be play better at home. Blashill seemingly stamped out the question of leadership issues in the locker room. Blashill continued with MLive’s Ansar Khan:
“I have 100 percent belief in the group in this locker room, so I’m not concerned long-term at all,” Blashill said. “All I’m concerned about is tonight, which wasn’t good enough. I don’t have any worries about the level of leadership or the level of character that we have to a man in this locker room.”
Khan expanded further, speaking to several of the same players that Sipple did. Danny DeKeyser doesn’t believe there are leadership issues in Detroit, saying that:
“Leadership is important, but at the end of the day everyone is here in the NHL and they need to do whatever they need to do to get going and ready to play. I wouldn’t put much up on the captaincy or leadership, just guys doing what they need to do to be ready to go.”
If the Red Wings rip off another six game winning streak, the questions will fade. But should Detroit look listless through another pair of games, the questions will likely multiply.
Sharks Notes: Pending UFAs And Their Destinations
The San Jose Sharks may be without one of their big bearded players next season.
Bob McKenzie appeared on TSN 690 on Monday morning, and spoke about the Sharks big three unrestricted free agents. Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, and Brent Burns are all UFAs at the conclusion of this season. McKenzie believes Thornton is in a blank-check type of situation, saying “he’ll probably get another three-year deal at some point, I would think, and it’ll be a fill-in-the-blank type deal.”
McKenzie isn’t so sure that Marleau will be back, however. He points to Marleau requesting a trade last season and the fact that he’s not considered a core player there anymore as reasons that he may not return to the Sharks.
Meanwhile, Burns is one of the premier defensemen in the NHL, scoring 27 goals and 75 points last season and is at a point-per-game pace already this season. While McKenzie believes Burns “in many ways, he wants to be back in San Jose,” he also points to a lack of contract talks this past summer.
McKenzie said Burns appears to be “keeping a little bit of an open mind here to see how the season goes before he makes any commitments.”
“So I can’t sit here and tell you, by any stretch, that he won’t be back with San Jose next year. But I would also caution and say that we shouldn’t assume that it’s an absolute slam-dunk that he will be back with San Jose.”
Should Burns decide to test the market, there will be no shortage of teams interested in the big defender. The Bruins, Coyotes, Devils, Maple Leafs, Oilers, and Red Wings, would all have serious interest in the big righty.
Oilers broadcaster Bob Stauffer has previously hinted that Edmonton will have extreme interest in Burns. Burns has a great relationship with former Sharks coach and current Oilers coach Todd McLellan, and the Oilers desperately need to add a right-handed offensive weapon to their blueline. Stauffer shared a link to McKenzie’s comments with a wink and a nudge. Back in June, Stauffer had mentioned Adam Larsson as a target of the Oilers and also expressed that he wouldn’t be surprised if Taylor Hall was traded for a defenseman.