The Future In Detroit: Frans Nielsen & Steve Ott
When Ansar Khan of MLive caught up with Frans Nielsen for his latest article, the Red Wings center had a very clear message for the direction of the team: they need Steve Ott. No, not necessarily Ott himself, but more players like him that can open up room for their more skilled forwards by making defenders pay while retrieving a puck.
Every time we’d get the puck down in their end, he’d finish checks on their D. At some point, they’re going to be tired of that and they’re going to back off and that’s going to give our skill guys a little more room. They’re going to give up that four or five feet at the blue line and you can come in and hit guys coming in late.
This is a prevailing theory around the league, that less-skilled players create room for their more talented linemates, opening up space for them to create scoring chances. It’s a tactic that has been used to great success in Toronto, where former Red Wings coach Mike Babcock has strapped Zach Hyman to Auston Matthews‘ hip for the entire season, despite his disappointing point totals. Detroit’s new bench boss, Jeff Blashill, is a Babcock pupil of sorts and may want to employ the same strategy.
Ignoring for a moment that the Red Wings in fact had the real Ott for much of the season, only to decide that at 25-26-10 they would sell at the deadline, we’ll take a look at possible options for the team this offseason. Assuming that Nielsen is right, and that the team needs some “more mean attitude” and an ability to back up those defenders, here are some of the options they could have for relatively cheap this summer (along with their age at the start of next year and current salary).
Steve Ott, 35, $800K
They could in fact get the real thing back, though Ott will now be 35 and didn’t work out very well for them the first time. The gritty forward is playing just over 12 minutes in the playoffs for Montreal, and has been that in-your-face presence for the club in their series against the New York Rangers. He’ll likely cost around the same amount next year, if he doesn’t decide to hang up his skates.
Chris Kunitz, 38, $3.55MM
Kunitz isn’t exactly the pest Ott is, but he was among the leaders in the NHL in hits once again and would never be called a soft player. He also provides at least a little bit of offensive upside, though he took a step backwards this season with just 29 points. At 38, he wouldn’t cost very much but also could fall off a cliff in effectiveness.
Ryan White, 29, $1MM
White was traded to Minnesota at the deadline along with Martin Hanzal, and though he was an effective grinder down the stretch hasn’t shown up much in the playoffs. White will be an unrestricted free agent again this summer and will cost around the same amount as this season.
Andreas Martinsen, 27, $640K
One of the other Montreal acquisitions at the deadline, Martinsen was playing very little on Colorado even though they were last in the NHL. The move to Montreal gave him a little more icetime, but he’s been relatively ineffective in the postseason. He’ll be lucky to get a one-way deal this summer.
Roman Polak, 31, $2.25MM
Polak just suffered a nasty injury to take him out for the rest of the playoffs, but should return for next season. An unrestricted free agent, he adds some toughness and a mean streak to the back end. While he started out quite poorly for the Maple Leafs, a late season turnaround and strong playoff debut should get him another contract between $1.5-2MM. If the Red Wings decide to upgrade their grit at both ends of the rink, he could be an option.
Brian Boyle, 32, $2MM
Boyle isn’t exactly a grinder as he can contribute offensively at times, but his physical style fits perfectly into a bottom six that wants to be tough to play against. Add in that he’s a dynamo in the faceoff dot, and can kill penalties and he may be exactly what Nielsen wants on the team. His leadership and playoff success might get him a raise this summer, likely between $2.7-3.2MM per season for several years.
Morning Notes: Krueger, Bernier, Coyotes
Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet woke the hockey world up this morning with some news on the Vancouver Canucks head coaching vacancy. When he reached out to Ralph Krueger about the rumored interest, the former Edmonton Oilers head coach replied “I have had some interesting chats these past weeks, but my focus remains fully on the Saints for now.” The Saints of course is referring to the Southampton Football Club with which Krueger holds the chairman role and has since his 2014 exit from hockey.
Krueger of course coached the European team at this fall’s World Cup of Hockey, ushering them all the way to the final game against Team Canada. Kruger held the Edmonton job for just one season before being dismissed, but many around the hockey world believe he could easily step behind an NHL bench once again. His players at the World Cup praised him tremendously, and there have been rumors since his exit that he would eventually make his return to the sport.
- It wasn’t just an overtime winner that thrilled Maple Leafs fans last night, but a goalie switch for the Anaheim Ducks. Jonathan Bernier came on in relief of John Gibson last night, and helped the Ducks claw their way back from a 4-1 deficit. While it’s not clear if that would ever warrant a start from the former Leaf, their fan base would clearly welcome it. The Maple Leafs would receive a draft pick if the Ducks made it to the Finals with Bernier starting more than half the games; a second-rounder if they were to win it all, and a third should they lose in the final series. Gibson allowed four goals on 16 shots, but will likely get back in the net with the Ducks up 3-0 in the series.
- The Arizona Coyotes are hoping the Minnesota Wild can claw back from their own 3-0 deficit to the St. Louis Blues. When the Coyotes traded Martin Hanzal to Minnesota at the deadline, they agreed to a condition that would see them receive a draft pick based on how many series the Wild win in the playoffs. Should the Wild be eliminated by the Blues, Arizona will get a 2019 fourth-rounder, but if they somehow climb back it could move all the way to the second round with two series victories.
Injury Notes: Marincin, Krug, Vatanen
Toronto’s defenseman Martin Marincin appears to be injured following a hit from Tom Wilson in the second period of Game 3. He took shifts after the hit but didn’t look particularly well, leaving the game in the third period. Marincin had stepped up in a big way since Roman Polak had gone down with injury. Luckily for Leafs fans, Nikita Zaitsev is back. But the injury parade of the playoffs continues, with Toronto seemingly unable to ice their full squad. Further updates on Marincin are not available at this time.
- Anaheim’s Sami Vatanen did not take the ice in Game 3, per Ducks’ beat writer Eric Stephens. Vatanen logs over 21 minutes a night, only trailing behind Cam Fowler and Hampus Lindholm. Vatanen has been depended upon by coach Randy Carlyle taking 55% of his starts in the offensive zone while registering 128 blocks on the season. Since Fowler has been sidelined with a knee injury, Vatanen’s role has only been increased. The injury is apparently upper-body related, though specifics are hard to come by. Anaheim will hope to depend upon 23 year-old Brandon Mantour, 21 year-old Shea Theodore, and the 25 year-old Josh Manson to pick up the slack against a desperate Calgary team.
- Torey Krug has been seen walking on his own in TD Garden, which is good news for Boston fans. Regaining the services of the defenseman would be a huge boon to a team that is held together by duct tape on the backend. Brandon Carlo is also injuried, although he is progressing. Zdeno Chara is pushing the wrong side of 40 and cannot be expected to carry the load for the team, especially with the other injuries. The 19 year-old Charlie McAvoy is being tasked with top-pairing duties, and despite his talent, is being challenged by quite a difficult first outing into NHL playoff hockey. Krug has no official time-table to return.
Islanders Reviewing GM Garth Snow
After missing the playoffs this season by just a point, albeit in a year when they expected to be contenders, the Islanders have begun their off-season evaluations and must ask the tough questions if they want to improve in 2017-18. One of those questions is about the fate of GM Garth Snow. Snow, who has been on the job for over a decade now, made many moves this season that deserve some scrutiny. The firing of head coach Jack Capuano and promotion of Doug Weight seemed to work out; letting Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen (116 points combined in 2015-16) walk in free agency and replacing them with Andrew Ladd and Jason Chimera (64 points in 2016-17) not so much. Snow’s job is safe for now, but the Islanders are doing their due diligence in reviewing the GM’s recent moves and plans for the future.
However, they are going about it in a strange way. According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the Islanders have been polling league executives to see how they think Snow has been doing. In theory, this is an interesting plan: hire and outside firm to get the opinions of peers across the league and avoid bias from within the organization. The execution is lacking, though. So far, the feedback has been overwhelmingly positive, despite some highly questionable moves. The reasoning behind this is relatively simple: What incentive does any rival executive have to be critical of Snow? If they think Snow is doing poorly, they can only benefit from the Islanders’ continued struggles while he is in charge and may even want to keep him in control of player operations in hopes of swindling him in a trade down the road.
This is clearly a flawed system and hopefully the Islanders are only taking this feedback with a grain of salt in evaluating Snow’s future. It would be a shame for Snow to lose (or keep) his job after all this time based on the faulty polling of competitors.
Rangers Notes: Holden, Klein, Miller
Despite being tied 1-1 in their first round series with the Montreal Canadiens and the match-up moving home to Madison Square Garden for the next two games, the New York Rangers have made some notable changes to their lineup. The most intriguing is the absence of defenseman Nick Holden. Holden, acquired from the Colorado Avalanche in the off-season for just a fourth-round pick, has proven to be a solid pickup by GM Jeff Gorton. The big 29-year-old blue liner was healthy for 80 games this season and contributed career-highs in offensive production with 11 goals and 23 assists. Those 34 points were more than highly-paid teammates Dan Girardi and Marc Staal combined. Holden was also a +13 on the year, second only to captain Ryan McDonagh among defenseman, and was second on the team, again to McDonagh, in ice time as well, averaging over 20 minutes per game.
Yet, when the puck dropped on Game Three, Holden was watching from the press box as a scratch. There has been no indication that Holden was hurt in either game in Montreal, nor is there any knowledge of nagging injuries. For now, it seems as though Holden, arguably the Rangers’ second best defenseman this season, is simply a healthy scratch. Holden has only one assist and is a -1 so far in the playoff series, including a -2 in Friday’s loss, but it is hard to find sufficient evidence that his play has been poor enough recently to warrant a scratch. Perhaps there is more to the situation than has been revealed just yet, but for the time being the Rangers will see, for just the third time all season, how a lineup without Holden plays.
- In his place, the Rangers have moved veteran defenseman Kevin Klein into the lineup. The emergence of Brady Skjei, the trade for Brendan Smith, and, of course, the occasional injury have limited Klein to just 60 games this season, the fewest games he has ever played in a full NHL season in his career. Klein may not have the offensive upside that some of his fellow defenders do, but he is a very strong player in his own end and an intimidating physical threat. After allowing four goals against the Canadiens in Game Two when they held them scoreless in Game One, it reasons that the Rangers and coach Alain Vigneault may want to create a stronger defensive presence and Klein can get the job done. Klein will skate alongside Skjei tonight, while Smith moves up to replace Holden alongside Staal.
- Another interesting change is the demotion of J.T. Miller to the Rangers’ fourth line. Miller, in just his third full season, finished second on the team in scoring behind Mats Zuccarello with 22 goals and a career-best 34 assists. How quickly the memory of 56 points can be erased when a top scorer fails to register a point in back-to-back playoff games and takes only 3 shots to boot. Now, Miller finds himself on the checking line with Oscar Lindberg and Tanner Glass and will likely see a major drop in 5-on-5 ice time until he can work his way up into the top nine again.
Ducks’ Defensive Depth Holding Their Own Despite Injuries
Defensive injuries seem to be mounting throughout many NHL playoff teams, but the defensive depth of the Anaheim Ducks as well as their 2-0 lead over the Calgary Flames is why there is little mention of Anaheim’s struggles. Injuries to Cam Fowler (knee) and Sami Vatanen (upper body) as well as season ending losses of Clayton Stoner (abdominal surgery) and Simon Despres (concussion) have forced a lot of the Ducks’ young blueliners to take a greater role.
NHL’s Adam Brady writes that Korbinian Holzer, Josh Manson, Brandon Montour and Shea Theodore have all had to step up and play big minutes, despite only having 10 games of playoff experience combined, coming into Saturday’s game. Despite the lack of experience, they have shined, with the exception of a shaky 10-minute period between the first and second frames when the Flames scored twice to tie the game. Montour and Theodore even assisted on offense on Jakob Silfverberg‘s first-period goal.
“We stated before the playoffs started, that we thought we were going to have to use nine defenseman through the course of the playoffs season,” coach Randy Carlyle said this morning just before his Ducks got on a plane to Calgary for Games 3 and 4. “We’ve at eight right now, and that’s great for our younger kids, getting the exposure and experience of playoff hockey and should only bode well for their future. I don’t see them intimidated by it, not in the first two games anyway.”
Holzer, at 29 years of age and hardly a youngster, played in his first-ever playoff game after Vatanen was forced to miss Game 2 yesterday. He was actually sent out as a starter with Manson to start the game. “For me, it was a great feeling and I was excited,” Holzer said. “There were a little more butterflies than normal. It was kind of like your first NHL game. But it was good that I started the game, to get those nerves out of the way early, and after that I thought it was a good experience.”
With Fowler out indefinitely, Vatanen will be reassessed tomorrow morning before Game 3. If he is forced to miss Game 3, the young defenders will be ready. “Obviously those guys are elite players, but for us as a whole core, anybody can play any role with the depth that we have,” Montour said. “So we were very calm out there. All of us can skate and play hard in our own end. I think that showed last night, and we’ve just got to keep it going.”
Eastern Notes: Yzerman, Tavares, Hellberg
The Tampa Bay Lightning might be currently watching the playoffs rather than playing in them, but Steve Yzerman is already working on his offseason plans. The GM has said his top priority this season is to lock up three core restricted free agents in Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson and Jonathan Drouin, which is expected to be quite a challenge, considering how up against the salary cap the Lightning are this offseason.
Tampa Bay Times writer Joe Smith suggests Yzerman might have trouble signing all three of them and acquire a top-four defenseman they desperately need and acquire a goaltender they need at the same time. That doesn’t include Victor Hedman‘s $7.875MM extension that kicks in (and almost doubles) next year and the future contract they will have to negotiate with Nikita Kucherov in two years, which is likely to be huge.
Yzerman successfully helped Tampa Bay’s cap situation at the trade deadline when he moved the contracts of Ben Bishop ($4.76MM), Brian Boyle ($2MM) and Valtteri Filppula ($5MM). While all three were important to the Lightning, getting their cap numbers off their books only increased their chances of resigning the trio of young stars.
The scribe writes the Lightning should focus their efforts on resigning both Palat and Johnson who are integral to the team’s success and even went on to suggest that the team should consider trading the 22-year old Drouin, who enjoyed a breakout campaign this year. The thought being that Drouin may have the most trade value of the three and might net them a nice haul right before the 2017 NHL draft.
Smith also suggested other possibilities including looking to the Las Vegas Golden Knights, which has heavily scouted Tampa Bay in the last couple of months, as an option to move a player like Johnson as there is a potential replacement for him in rookie Brayden Point.
All said and done, Yzerman has his work cut out for him this offseason.
Other notes:
- The New York Islanders, also sitting home during the playoffs, need to focus their attention on re-signing star player John Tavares. The belief is that the Islanders naming Doug Weight the permanent coach was critical to get the 26-year old star to return. Weight, who served as interim coach since January, produced a successful second half for the Islanders as he posted the second-best NHL record during that time. Unfortunately, they fell short of reaching the playoffs, but it is believed that Weight’s return will only help in Tavares opting to return. Tavares, who led the team with 28 goals and 38 assists for 66 points, is in line for a potential 8-year, $100MM extension this summer. A free agent defection would be crippling to the Islanders’ franchise.
- The New York Rangers have recalled goaltender Magnus Hellberg for Game 3 of their playoff game with the Canadiens today. He will serve only as an emergency backup as the Hartford Wolf Pack just finished their regular season.
Predator Power: The Potential Upset That Should Shock No One
Just yesterday, I wrote an article describing the ability of the Wild to come back in their series down 0-2. No one should doubt that the Blackhawks are entirely capable of achieving the same against the Predators. The question is whether they will.
The Predators were perhaps the most overlooked team this post-season, with nearly all analysts picking the Blackhawks to take the series rather easily. This is particularly odd because offensively, the teams were practically indistinguishable (at 2.43 GF60 and 2.42 GF60 respectively). At 5 on 5, the Predators only scored 5 less goals all season long. Down the home stretch of the season, the Predators won their last 4 while the Blackhawks went winless. Although both teams have had an increase in overall offense compared to last season, Nashville had less of a drastic up-hike, suggesting less deviation from the expected output. The Predators are also far less top heavy than the Hawks – their scoring is more evenly stretched out across their lineup and not concentrated around four particular players. The Hawks’ fourth line is noteworthy in how uninspiring it is – Jordin Tootoo and John Hayden usually average 8 and 11 minutes a piece. Finally, Pekka Rinne had a historically bad season by his standards in 2015-16 (in which the Predators took the Western Conference champs to a Game 7) – but he has returned to form in a big way this season, with a respectable (if unremarkable) .918 save percentage.
Then there’s the defense – the Blackhawks have shown signs of weakness. Duncan Keith had a solid showing, but not his Norris standard. His Corsi For was his worst since his rookie season at 50.7% – he has trended around 54%. Niklas Hjalmarsson and Brent Seabrook have also had down seasons, Seabrook at 50%, and Hjalmarsson at 45%. After these three defenders there is a massive gap in talent. Part of the reason that these top three are having a difficult time is because they have had to log massive amounts of minutes against top players. Both Johnny Oduya and Brian Campbell have struggled to log the minutes of years past, and both have faced lower quality of competition. Each has averaged around 18 minutes of ice and it doesn’t seem like Joel Quenneville is particularly confident in putting them out there in all situations these playoffs. Trevor van Reimsdyk has performed admirably in his role, but has yet to be a positive player in a post-season year. Even against Keith, the speed of the Predators’ forwards has created fits and frantic backpedaling. With how dominant Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi and crew have looked, it is more than fair to draw comparisons.
Ultimately, the Blackhawks need to score in order to advance. Peter Laviolette has the Predators rolling as a fine-tuned forecheck machine, and Chicago seems to have been shell-shocked. Their zone time in the most recent game was frankly horrible. The 5-0 obliteration was a natural continuation of the frustrated offense the Hawks experienced in the first game, and it seems apparent that whatever game-planning occurred between the two matches fell far short of the mark. Shots were constantly blocked by the Preds and the ones that got through were not dangerous. The amount of hype that preceded Chicago headed into these playoffs was largely unwarranted – they didn’t dominate any advanced stat and only won the division by a slight margin, while their top players looked far less dynamic than the previous year. But let us not discount the effort and depth of the Predators. On paper, this isn’t a roster that is star-studded or wonderfully exciting, but they have been constructed well for playoff hockey and now have the experience to close a series. Their third line has performed well above expectations and their top guns are firing away. Underestimating this squad would be a deadly error for any team, no matter how many cups they’ve won in years past.
Minnesota And The Wild Art Of The 0-2 Comeback
The Minnesota Wild are in a predicament. They have out-shot their opponent 76-53 through 137 minutes of hockey, created the majority of the scoring chances, and dominated advanced stats. But they are down 0-2 in their series, largely due to the heroics of St. Louis net-minder Jake Allen. Per Elias Sports, teams that go down in a series 2-0 only have a 14.1% chance of winning the series. After all, winning 4 of 5 after is no simple task. This is only made more difficult by the fact that Minnesota lost its home ice advantage and has to split in St. Louis to avoid a sweep.
In Minnesota’s current situation, the main contributing factor to the struggles is a snakebitten offensive core. A few players have been on cold streaks, including captain Mikko Koivu who hasn’t scored in his last 16. Perhaps more important is the strength of St. Louis defense over the last 10 games, only surrendering 21 goals. In order for Minnesota to regain a foothold, one of these trends will need to reverse. A goal per game, even against a prime Patrick Roy, simply isn’t good enough.
All over but the crying, right? Well, not quite. Although a 14.1% chance sounds like a longshot, there are more factors to success than one might consider. PDO can really only trend upwards from here, and the bounces are far more likely to turn than not. There is due reason to suspect the unlikely. Minnesota is intimately familiar with the back of the twine – they finished only 2 behind Pittsburgh at 183 Goals For on the season, despite a roster with far fewer superstar names. Devan Dubnyk actually had a better season than Jake Allen 5v5, and is certainly capable of stealing a game of his own. And St. Louis has had wild swings of fortune just as often as Minnesota has. Minnesota, evidenced by a wonderful Wilderness writeup, was indeed beginning to trend back upward. The team stumbled mightily through early March, but recovered quite nicely in the home stretch – winning their last 4 games in convincing fashion. By their relatively dominant, but ultimately fruitless, on-ice performances in the first 2 games, one might believe these successes were not aberrations.
If we discount the overblown importance of home ice advantage in modern hockey, the situation seems far more salvageable than many observers might believe. As Bruce Boudreau said, “it’s not as dire as they think.” They just should be sure to win the next one.
Bruins Notes: Krejci, C. Miller, Morrow, Subban
Fresh off a 2-1 Game One win against the Ottawa Senators on Wednesday night without three starters in David Krejci, Torey Krug, and Brandon Carlo, it appears that the Boston Bruins will have to line up for Game Two with an even more short-handed roster. While the team has until their matinee puck drop on Saturday to make any official announcement, it sounds as though defenseman Colin Miller will join the growing list of injuries. Miller, who left the previous game after suffering a lower body injury on a trip from Mark Borowiecki, was on the ice for practice today, but left early due to pain and discomfort. After practice, head coach Bruce Cassidy made it sound very unlikely that Miller would be available for the next game.
With Miller out, in addition to Krug and Carlo, Joe Morrow is the next man up to slot in on the blue line. Morrow, a former first-round pick and a piece of the Tyler Seguin trade, has not been able to work his way into regular play time in years with the Bruins. With John-Michael Liles in the fold this season, Morrow was bumped down to eighth on the depth chart and has not played in almost three months. However, the Bruins were able to beat the Senators with just five defenseman for most of Game One, so even a cold Morrow could be an upgrade as Boston looks to take a stranglehold on the series with another road win.
- Having Krejci back would certainly go a long way to help the Bruins take a 2-0 series lead, but Cassidy confirmed that Boston’s highest-paid player will miss another game. Cassidy did add the qualifier that “as of today” he would miss the game, and Krejci did suit up for warm-ups before being a late scratch in Game One, however he missed practice today and all signs point to the Bruins playing is safe with their third-highest scorer.
- As reported earlier, the Bruins have made it official that they have returned goalie Zane McIntyre, who suited up as Tuukka Rask‘s backup for Game One, back to the AHL and has recalled Malcolm Subban on an emergency assignment to serve, fittingly, as an emergency backup should anything cause Rask or Anton Khudobin. Don’t worry Bruins fans, there’s no reason to worry about Rask’s health.