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Inactive Blues Hoping For Different Results

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The St. Louis Blues were one of the most inactive teams this summer, right alongside the Edmonton Oilers and San Jose Sharks. With their relative success in a difficult Central division, it’s easy to understand why they didn’t make too many seismic transactions. Still, they had a moderate backslide in points last season despite making it to the second round. With only 99 points, they easily could have found themselves on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. The team’s only major move this off-season was trading Jori Lehtera for Brayden Schenn, by most accounts a trade they came out on top. Still, did the Blues need to be more aggressive?

The team has one of the most consistently underrated defensemen in Alex Pietrangelo, and Colton Parayko behind him is no slouch. After that, however, the pickings on defense are rather uninspiring. Jay Bouwmeester still logs substantial time on ice, with a 22:24 average, but there are signs his play is starting to slip. His last four seasons have been negative possession seasons (relative Corsi), and his offensive game has completely dried up. He only scored one goal to accompany his 14 assists last season. Furthermore, age is starting to catch up to him in terms of footspeed. He’ll be 35 this season, and that issue isn’t going to get any better in the years to come. Carl Gunnarsson only saw sheltered time last year, with just over 13 minutes a night against weaker competition. Robert Bortuzzo is a 6th defenseman at best and Joel Edmundson has work to round out his game if he wants to solidify himself as a top-four defender. Ultimately, the team needs defensive help, especially when the team will be up against the likes of the Blackhawks and Stars on a regular basis.

The offense is deep but undeniably overly reliant on Vladimir Tarasenko. Paul Stastny is looking nowhere near worth his contract, and Alex Steen has to slow down at some point in the near future. Jaden Schwartz is primed to have another solid 50+ point season, but if the bodies around him again struggle with consistency it could be an uphill endeavor. Robby Fabbri is another player to watch, as the former first-rounder looks to put together a solid, healthy campaign. The aforementioned addition of Schenn is valuable, but the team could arguably have done more to bring fresh blood in. The team is really banking on Vladimir Sobotka to prove his worth, but there is still the risk of him not producing. He’s never topped 10 goals in an NHL season, after all. Ivan Barbashev looks very promising, but he’s still somewhat of an unknown entity at this point. Ultimately, the team lacks a proven, go-to offensive threat behind Tarasenko Whereas other teams in the division have exceptional one-two punches, the Blues are still hoping to develop theirs fully.

There were available names this offseason to be had if GM Doug Armstrong was willing to make the moves. An Alexander Radulov, for example, would have done wonders to ease some of the pressure from Tarasenko. There are still names available, though, such as Thomas Vanek and Jaromir Jagr up front. On defense, not much remains at this late date. A trade would really be the only sensible option. The team is still relatively undersized up front and overtaxes the top defenders. Cap space was undoubtedly an issue, as at $72.57 MM currently there was little room to maneuver. Still, moving out a larger contract like Stastny’s or Bouwmeester’s might have cleared room to add an important piece or two. The Blues lost Kevin Shattenkirk at the deadline, and it remains to be seen how his absence will affect the team over the course of a full year. The coaching staff behind Mike Yeo did phenomenal work to bring the team back into contention, but stagnation can often cost teams who are on the bubble. It will be interesting to see if Armstrong remains quiet this off-season, or opts for an additional move before the season’s start.

Bad Value: The Worst Contracts League-Wide

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It’s always interesting to see where teams are spending their money unwisely, especially to the armchair GMs of every fanbase. In a fine article by Satchel Price of SB Nation, he breaks down what he believes is each team’s worst contract currently on the books. After the slew of buyouts that happened early in the off-season, many teams were able to cut ties with some of the worst offenders. Still, some of the worst cap criminals are primed to haunt their teams yet again in 2017-18. Discounting the injured Nathan Horton, David Clarkson, and Dave Bolland, these were some of the names that stuck out on the list.

David Backes – Boston Bruins – 4 yrs x $6 MM

When Backes signed this contract, many were wondering what the Boston management were thinking. Backes already was showing signs of decline his last two seasons in St. Louis, and his tough style of play was always going to take away from his longevity. He still flirts with 40+ points and adds solid two-way ability. But in 2 seasons, if Backes continues to slow and falter possession-wise, this contract may become a brutal obstacle to beefing up the offense.

Brent Seabrook – Chicago Blackhawks – 7 yrs x $6.785 MM

Seabrook was a player who really piggy-backed off the success of the Hawks cup teams. He was a solid player, but by no means a core player. GM Stan Bowman thought differently, and handed out a massive, maximum-term contract, complete with a no-movement clause. Chicago has really struggled to fill their depth forward and bottom defensive positions out with cheap players, largely because of overpayments like this. Seabrook did accumulate a ton of assists last year, but his goal scoring has all but disappeared. Perhaps the worst negative to Seabrook? He’s never been a positive possession player in Corsi relative, in any single season he’s played. For a franchise that pays Jonathan Toews over $10 MM AAV, this contract is absolutely crippling.

Dustin Brown – L.A. Kings – 5 yrs x $5.875 MM

Brown benefited from the same intangibles-related inflation that Toews did. Leading a team to multiple Cups is generally a recipe to have your value balloon immensely. Winners are winners, after all. Brown, though, was never really integral to the team’s on-ice success in 2012 or 2014, and his undisputed leadership abilities didn’t help the team in the past few years when they have struggled to put pucks in the nett. His two-way ability is solid, but not elite, and he hasn’t broken 20 goals since 2011-12. Perhaps Brown can be revitalized under the system of coach John Stevens, but his body has to have taken a toll with the way he’s played the game. One need only look to former King Mike Richards to see what gritty, shot-blocking forwards have in the way of staying power.

Marc Staal – New York Rangers – 4 yrs x $5.75 MM

In all likelihood, the primary reason Staal has not already been bought out is because he had one more year on his contract than the much-maligned Dan Girardi. Staal has been a noticeably bad defender in terms of possession stats for the last three seasons, and showed few (if any) signs of improvement this season. He still logs over 19 minutes of ice a night, so he’s not stapled to the bench. But he’s not a top-four defender at this point, and considering how he’s never been a two-way threat, his one-dimensional game may only deteriorate further.

Andrew MacDonald – Philadelphia Flyers – 3 ys x $5 MM

This is a prime example of an error that most teams have learned to avoid – handing out multi-year deals to wildly inconsistent players. MacDonald had his offensive totals inflated by playing for a very lean New York Islanders team, and Philadelphia pounced on acquiring this player in the midst of a -9.0% Corsi Relative season. MacDonald has since dried up offensively, and while he has cleaned up his possession numbers against weaker competition, he still needs massive sheltering. He also has had a heck of a time staying healthy – he’s missed 93 contests over the last 3 campaigns. MacDonald is now taking valuable playing time from a young defensive core and hindering the team’s ability to acquire top free agents.

 

Blue Jackets Look To Fill Center Hole

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When center William Karlsson was sacrificed to the Vegas Golden Knights, the Blue Jackets lost a potent two-way tool up the middle. For a team who scores as much by committee as Columbus did last season, the team was bound to lose a valuable roster player. Although he only scored 6 goals and 25 points, he logged tough minutes against tough competition. It should be noted that, for all his defensive starts (62%), his advanced stats have been persistently sub-par. While Karlsson easily passed the eye test, his Corsi For was a lousy 43% in 2016-17, and that isn’t far from his career average. It may be a situation where analytics don’t tell the entire story, but Karlsson was actually trending backwards last season when looking at relative possession. Regardless, someone will need to step up internally to fill that roster void at the the 3rd line center position, as noted in an article by Mark Scheig of the Hockey Writers.

Scheig of course notes the work of rookie Lukas Sedlak, who performed admirably in his fourth-line duties. Sedlak could be ready to step up, but a lot will depend on how he performs in camp. He showed a bit of offensive touch, with 7 goals in 62 NHL contests, and marginal point totals in his Junior days. However, Sedlak was injured down the stretch and will need to re-assert himself into the lineup. He won’t be nearly as sheltered as he was last season, either. Notably, he’ll be competing against Pierre-Luc Dubois, the #3 pick from last year’s draft. Dubois finished out his last year in the QJMHL with the Blanville-Boisbriand Armada after being traded min-season. In an injury shortened campaign, he only posted 55 points in 48 games, a sharp step down from his 99-point performance in 62 games during his draft year. Dubois arguably regressed more than any other 2016 top-10 pick, and it might be unreasonable to expect him to dominate in camp. Dubois still has a heavy shot, solid hockey IQ and uses his size effectively, but consistency at the NHL level may be a difficult ask from a 19 year old returning from a down year.

Internally, other players can slot to the position. Scheig mentions that Boone Jenner can fill in when needed, but it’s no permanent solution. Going the free agency route at this late stage seems rather unlikely, as well. That really leaves coach John Tortorella in a tough position if Dubois fails to make an impact and Sedlak remains what he is. The team does have a glut of defensive prospects, but considering that they went out of their way to protect them from Vegas’ expansion sights, they may not be willing to part with a major piece just yet. The Blue Jackets may simply need to ride out some of the season with a hole in their top-nine if training camp doesn’t crown a clear replacement for Karlsson. Unlike many of the Vegas selections, this one could impact a team’s makeup noticeably. In an incredibly competitive Metropolitan division, a solitary step back could mean the difference between eyeing a division title or fighting for a wild card berth. Still, after adding the dynamic Artemi Panarin this off-season and watching a talented young defense gain valuable playoff experience, Jackets’ fans will likely not be overly concerned just yet.

USA Olympic Team Announces Management, Coaching Staff

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The 2018 Winter Olympics will be another chance for amateur hockey players from throughout North America to create some magic (some may even call it a Miracle) and show that they can compete at the highest level. The NHL will not be going, meaning players from the NCAA, junior and European leagues will make up the teams for the United States and Canada.

Today, USA Hockey announced the management and coaching staff for the upcoming Olympics:

This group has a ton of international experience, led by Granato who has coached and played in the Olympics before. Now the head coach of the University of Wisconsin, Granato has long been considered one of the brightest hockey minds ever developed in the US. It is interesting that an NCAA coach has been selected, as he’ll have much more first hand experience with many of the players the team will have to rely on.

Johannson said in the press conference that the team will also look at some semi-retired NHL players to suit up for the team. Possibilities include Brian Gionta, Matt Cullen or even Drew Stafford if he can’t find a job around the NHL before the start of the season.

Most of the team though will come from the NCAA ranks, where players like Jordan Greenway could be asked to play big minutes. Greenway was part of the World Championship squad earlier this spring along with fellow college players Daniel Brickley and Cal Petersen. Petersen has since signed with the Los Angels Kings and will be ineligible, while Brickley may have a substantial role after heading back to Minnesota State University.

Luke Kunin, Granato’s star player last year at Wisconsin will be unable to play after signing with the Iowa Wild this spring following his sophomore year. Granato is surely going to pull from his own roster for other options.

Evening Snapshots: Babcock, Matthews, Bridge Deals

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Toronto Maple Leafs coach Mike Babcock praised the performance of Auston Matthews, but believes there’s always room for improvement writes NHL.com’s Adam Kimelman. Matthews, who registered 40 goals and 69 points en route to a playoff appearance and Calder Award, will be expected to build on his performance last season as the Leafs look to take the next step in their rebuild. Babcock says that he isn’t one to “measure by points” but instead looks at how they “play” and “compete.” The young Leafs took a huge step forward, pushing the “painful rebuild” that Babcock once called it into a quicker ascent. But in true Babcockian form, he sprinkles praise while expecting more:

Obviously we have good young players,” Babcock said. “We have a lot of them. It’s kind of a group that’s growing up together. But it’s one year and one year doesn’t make a career. You have to do it again and again and again. We’re excited about our opportunities.

  • Puck Daddy’s Ryan Lambert writes about how Ryan Johansen’s deal certainly challenges the old guard way of thinking when it comes to bridge contracts. Rewarding Johansen with an eight-year deal instead of a one-two year contract.  Lambert points out that going with the longer deal instead of a bridge and then the long deal seems like the better bet. The logic here would be getting the player through his prime instead of playing a “wait and see” game and then locking him up long after his prime has expired. There are a litany of examples of this in the NHL, but in an age of cost certainty and public outcry at what’s deemed a bad deal, general managers are often in a tight spot when it comes to choosing a bridge deal or a long-term contract.

Panthers Notes: Tippett, Tallon

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Breathe easy, Panthers fans. Tenth overall pick Owen Tippett was hit hard (gif via Twitter) during today’s game against the United States during the World Junior Summer Showcase. NHL.com’s Mike Morreale tweeted that it didn’t look good after the hit, but Tippett was able to leave the ice under his own power. Morreale tweeted later that he observed Tippett with his teammates, going through exercises and appearing just fine.  An injury scare for the high scoring winger would have been a difficult blow for Florida. Tippett has a chance to make the roster right out of training camp, and if the skills transfer over, can be a major contributor in the scoring column. The Sun-Sentinel’s Harvey Fialkov wrote about how general manager Dale Tallon believes Tippett to have the makeup of a player who is mature beyond his years. Today’s hit appears to be just a minor incident, and one that shouldn’t stunt Tippett’s chance at making the NHL roster.

  • Tallon was featured in an Athletic article by Scott Powers, who wrote how Tallon holds a special place in his heart for Chicago. Tallon was responsible for the bulk of the drafting and free agent signings that turned the Blackhawks into a model franchise after being a league doormat for nearly a decade. Powers asked Tallon about his thoughts on the Panthers offseason, and he responded as such:

    We had to rework it a little bit. We’re going younger, we’re going faster. We like what we’ve done. We’ve gotten quicker and faster, a little more depth. We added some grit, we added some speed and we added some skill. We got a lot of good young players that we still have coming in our organization that we really like, and we have a real strong core of young players that were injured last year. I think our team is going to be faster and younger and play with a little more energy than we did last year. The new coaches to our coaching staff are really good. I’m excited to work with them and get rolling here.

Tallon admitted that he wasn’t happy about last season and that it was a difficult decision not bringing Jaromir Jagr back, noting that he was great for leadership and exemplifying a strong work ethic. But like many executives in the NHL, Tallon felt it was time to get younger and faster.

 

 

East Notes: Bylsma, Guentzel, Rowney

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The Athletic’s Craig Custance caught up with former Pittsburgh Penguins and Buffalo Sabres head coach Dan Bylsma who had some thoughts on how the Detroit Red Wings should approach their roster. Ironically enough, Bylsma grew up a Detroit fan, since he was a Michigan resident. Custance quizzed Bylsma on a number of topics, including a Red Wings rebuild and his time with the Sabres. On the Red Wings, Bylsma admits that Detroit is no longer model franchise in the league and that fans will “never see” the team they once saw that featured bonafide stars like Luc Robitaille, Brett Hull, Steve Yzerman, and Sergei Fedorov, to name a few. The former bench boss guesses that the Red Wings roster will look dynamically different in three years as they’ll be forced to rebuild a team that has certainly struggled. He also believes fans are ready for a rebuild, preferring to see a competitive team that grows into playoff dominance instead of keeping the “streak” alive with aging players and early playoff exits. He doesn’t believe, however, that the Red Wings need a total teardown to win. Instead, he thinks that steady drafting can keep Detroit relevant without ripping out the foundation.

  • When it came to talking about Buffalo, however, Bylsma was coy. When he arrived in Buffalo, the team was in the midst of a tear down and rebuilding with the likes of Jack Eichel, and other young, dynamic players. While there were some strides, last season was disastrous, costing both Bylsma and former general manager Tim Murray their jobs. Bylsma admits to Custance that he didn’t want to talk about what happened in Buffalo while explaining that Detroit hasn’t gutted things like Buffalo did. He also believes that a teardown-build up program takes several years, sometimes up to five. That’s understandable from his vantage point, given that he only had two years in Buffalo to try and win. It has to be said that Toronto’s resurgence couldn’t have helped matters, as the Leafs not only qualified for the playoffs, but gave Washington a scare in the first round.
  • NBC Sports’ Adam Gretz writes that with Connor Sheary re-signed, the Pittsburgh Penguins will turn their attention to grabbing a third line center. He makes a couple suggestions, wondering if Jake Guentzel could move over to center line or if youngster Carter Rowney is ready for full time duty. The most realistic option, Gretz believes, is for Pittsburgh general manager Jim Rutherford to explore trades to fill the vacancy and give the Pens a solid chance to win their third consecutive Cup.

Columbus Blue Jackets Extend John Tortorella

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Not wanting him to be seen as a “lame duck” coach, the Columbus Blue Jackets have extended the reigning Jack Adams Award winner John Tortorella for an additional season. That means he’ll now be under contract through the 2018-19 season, and will likely remain one of the league’s top paid coaches. Tortorella took home the top coaching award for the second time in his career, following his 2004 win after claiming the Stanley Cup with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

“Torts” as he’s affectionately referred to as has now coached 1,093 regular season games at the NHL level and will enter this season with a 530-432-131 record. He ranks 22nd all-time in wins and will likely climb into the top-20 this season, passing names like Marc Crawford and Dave Tippett who aren’t currently in charge of a club. The Blue Jackets, poised to have another big year have responded well under his fiery style, exploding to a 50-24-8 record last year in the best season in franchise history. They had to give up the #55 pick in this year’s draft as compensation for hiring him while he was still under contract (but not working) with the Vancouver Canucks, but it would be hard to find someone to complain about that price.

While details of the contract extension haven’t been released, Tortorella was making $2MM per season combined from Vancouver and Columbus and it would be hard to see him take a cut in 2018-19. Instead, he may even be inching closer to the salaries of Mike Babcock, Joel Quenneville and others which eclipse $5MM.

Boston Bruins Make Coaching Hires

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The Boston Bruins have made several coaching hires to fill out their development ranks today, including bringing back Jay Leach as the head coach of the Providence Bruins in the AHL. Leach was an assistant coach with the team last year, but will take over from Kevin Dean as the boss behind the bench. Spencer Carbery has been hired as a replacement assistant coach, while Mike Dunham has been brought on as a goaltender development coach.

Many hockey fans may remember Leach as a fringe NHL defensemen known for his size more than anything else, who played 70 games in a career split between several franchises. Retiring in 2013, his first professional coaching job came in 2015-16 for the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins, where he started as an assistant but took over as interim head coach after Mike Sullivan moved up to the NHL club. He’s obviously well respected in the Bruins organization, as he’ll take over at just 37 years old with very little experience.

Carbery spent last season as the head coach of the Saginaw Spirit of the OHL, but has many years of experience running a professional franchise with the ECHL’s South Carolina Stingrays. He’s another young voice behind the bench at just 35, but has been involved in coaching since his playing career ended in 2010.

Early Notes: Offer Sheets, Bridge Deals, Matthews

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One of the most exciting and simultaneously disappointing parts of the current offseason structure is the offer sheet. While fans and media alike speculate on who will get one each year, it’s almost never done. Interestingly, now we have a former management voice also speaking up about how he’d like offer sheets to play a bigger part in the NHL summer. Frank Provenzano, a former assistant general manager with the Washington Capitals and Dallas Stars, is now a writer for The Athletic, and penned an article today looking at why teams don’t give out many offer sheets. In it he talks about how he used to try and get his team to use them:

When I was in charge of negotiating NHL contracts, I pushed to find offer sheet candidates EVERY summer. And yet I never made a single one. I can tell you first hand it wasn’t because of some fear of pissing off another GM. It was because the offer sheet lever, as it’s currently constructed, simply doesn’t work.

It’s a fascinating look behind the curtain of NHL front offices, as Provenzano explains why the current compensation structure doesn’t allow offer sheets to be signed very often. The long-standing belief that teams just didn’t want to incite a run on their own restricted free agents is challenged, and from first hand knowledge. It’s definitely a worthwhile read, as is so much coming out of the Athletic these days.

  • On the theme of contract structures, Puck Daddy’s Ryan Lambert examines bridge deals and their effect on eventual player salaries. Citing Ryan Johansen as the latest example, Lambert wonders why team’s aren’t more willing to “pay up” coming out of an entry-level contract instead of spending big on post-prime years. Johansen will be earning $8MM per year through his age-32 season, something that wouldn’t have happened had he signed a long-term deal in 2014 instead of a bridge deal. Interestingly, this is the approach the Oilers have taken with Connor McDavid, instead of perhaps saving some money on a shorter term deal that doesn’t buy out as many UFA years. Could it end up costing them when McDavid hits the open market at age-29?
  • Adam Kimelman of NHL.com caught up with Mike Babcock at the World Junior Summer Showcase, where the Toronto Maple Leafs coach is presumably scratching his hockey itch by watching some of the best young players in the world. The conversation turned to Auston Matthews, who Babcock believes can be even better this season. After scoring 40 goals and 69 points as a rookie and almost unanimously taking home the Calder trophy, Babcock thinks the improvements to his defensive game and pace of play will allow him to have the puck even more and dominate play. Matthews turns 20 in September, and will be a big part of any return to the playoffs for the Maple Leafs in 2017-18.
  • NBC has announced its nationally televised schedule for the upcoming season, which includes three games each from the aforementioned Matthews and McDavid. The first Vegas Golden Knights’ home game will also be on national television, when they face off against the Arizona Coyotes on October 10th.

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