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Are The Atlantic Division Playoff Teams Already Set?

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It’s December and the 82-game NHL season is not even half over. Think what you will about the “Thanksgiving Rule”, but a lot can change over a long season. There’s no telling exactly how things will shake out this early in the campaign.

Yet, it seems almost impossible that the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs entries from the Atlantic Division are not already set. The Tampa Bay Lightning (23-6-2, 48 pts, .774 PTS%) are the best team in the league. The Toronto Maple Leafs (20-13-1, 41 pts, .603 PTS%) are second in the division and tied for second in the Eastern Conference in points, despite a current three-game losing streak. The Boston Bruins (15-10-4, 34 pts, .586 PTS%) are the closest team to the Leafs in terms of points percentage in the East and rank third in points in the division with the least games played in the NHL. The rest of the teams in the Atlantic are not even close.

The Montreal Canadiens (14-14-4, 32 pts, .500 PTS%) perhaps represent the best bet at a spoiler in the Atlantic, but needed a 6-2-2 record in their last ten just to get to .500. The team is still struggling to find its identity under Claude Julien and there has been more talk of a rebuild than a playoff run this season. The Detroit Red Wings (12-13-7, 31 pts, .484 PTS%) are overachieving this season in the opinion of many, yet are still a ways out in the Atlantic. Despite a talented roster, the Florida Panthers (12-15-5, 29 pts, .453 PTS%) are in even worse shape. The Buffalo Sabres (8-18-7, 23 pts, .348 PTS%) are challenging for the worst record in the NHL and, with the team in turmoil, the Ottawa Senators (10-13-7, 27 pts, .450 PTS%) are trending in that direction as well.

As of now, these five Atlantic Division teams hold the five worst records in the Eastern Conference and five of the seven worst records in the entire NHL. Not only will they struggle to catch the Lightning, Leafs, and Bruins, but a wild card spot versus the relatively dominant Metropolitan Division also seems far outside the realm of possibility. If the Metro’s worst team is the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins (16-14-3, 35 pts, .530 PTS%), how could any of the five hope to beat out its fourth and fifth best teams, currently the identical records of the New York Rangers and New York Islanders (17-12-3, 37 pts, .578 PTS%)?

A lot can change over the course of the NHL season, but in 2017-18 it seems very likely that the Atlantic Division playoff status is already set before the 2018 segment of the season even begins. Tampa Bay simply has too much talent to slow down. Toronto has the talent and youth to keep pushing forward. Boston is only now getting healthy for the first time this season. All three teams are likely to get better as the season progresses and, in turn, the gap between them and the remainder of the Atlantic will only get worse.

The Worst Case Scenario In Ottawa

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While the result is not yet final, the Ottawa Senators are in the midst tonight of what will likely end as a big loss to the Buffalo Sabres, the only team in the Eastern Conference with a worse record (for now). The team is in free fall, losing four straight games and eleven of their past twelve, not including tonight’s result. At 9-12-7, the Senators hold the third worst record in the NHL and rumors are swirling that no one on the roster is safe.

Back on November 5th, things seemed to be trending upward for Ottawa as GM Pierre Dorion was finally able to swing a trade to bring in coveted center Matt Duchene. In the process, the Senators gave up another legitimate top six center in Kyle Turris, goalie Andrew Hammond, 2016 first-rounder Shane Bowers, a 2019 third-round pick and a conditional 2018 first-round pick. Duchene has just four points and a -11 rating in 14 games with Ottawa so far and it’s already safe to say that the trade hasn’t worked out as planned.

So what’s next? With the Senators struggling, the conditional first-round pick sent to the Avalanche becomes very interesting. The 2018 pick is “top-ten protected”, meaning – as is likely – if Ottawa finished in the bottom third of the league, they retain their first round pick. Colorado would then get the Senators’ 2019 first-rounder. However, there is significant risk associated with that scenario. While the 2017-18 Sens have been underwhelming, there is enough talent on the roster to avoid falling apart entirely. The 2018-19 Senators though are another story. Ottawa just recently requested no-trade lists from ten key players and a fire sale could begin this season. The result could be an even worse squad next season and an even better pick heading to Colorado, perhaps even a top pick like center Jack Hughes or defenseman Bowen Byram.

So what is the worst case scenario in Ottawa? The team continues to struggle this year and is even worse next season, missing out on a potential franchise-altering prospect. After two years of failure, the team loses, via trade or free agency, Duchene, Erik Karlsson, Derick Brassard, and more. It may seem like a stretch, but it is in fact very possible. These are dark days in Ottawa, but the truth is that this could just be the beginning.

Snapshots: Clifford, Blais, Tavares, Marchand

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The Pacific Division-leading Los Angeles Kings are about to get even stronger. The team has announced that veteran forward Kyle Clifford has been activated from the injured reserve. After missing all but the first three games of the 2017-18 season with an upper body injury, Clifford could return to the L.A. lineup as early as tonight’s match-up against the New Jersey Devils. The Kings had an open roster spot, meaning no corresponding moves were needed to activate Clifford and likely indicating that he is expected to go tonight. The two-way winger is a career King and thus a two-time Stanley Cup champ. L.A. will surely appreciate having his seven years of experience and familiarity back in the lineup.

  • The St. Louis Blues, division leaders themselves, have returned Samuel Blais to the AHL’s San Antonio Rampage. The timing of the move is curious, given that Jaden Schwartz was just recently sidelined for six weeks and the Blues could use his offensive instincts in the lineup. Blais has only three points in nine NHL games in his rookie season, but impressed the organization in the preseason and has 13 points in 11 AHL games. With a tough game against the Tampa Bay Lightning tonight and a crucial home-and-home with the Winnipeg Jets coming up this weekend, perhaps coach Mike Yeo wanted to field a more veteran, two-way lineup, especially given the absences of Alex Pietrangelo and Jay Bouwmeester. However, the team could regret missing out on Blais’ offensive fire power if missing Schwartz is more apparent.
  • The New York Islanders are still upset about the lack of league retribution handed out to the Bruins’ Brad Marchand for his high hit on Isles captain John Tavares on Saturday. En route to a 3-1 Boston win, the game did get physical and Marchand took offense to an earlier incident and undoubtedly charged at and hit Tavares. However, the five-minute major he was awarded was enough for the NHL Department of Player Safety, who announced they would not have a hearing with a familiar face in Marchand. That didn’t sit well with Islanders head coach Doug Weight, Greg Joyce of the New York Post writes. “I was probably a little surprised,” Weight said, explaining “Things are targeted, things happen spontaneously, but to me, the ones that are premeditated, it’s unfortunate when we only look at results. So if Johnny lies there and he is hurt, there’d probably be something done. I don’t know the logic in that.” For now, all the Islanders can do is be thankful that Tavares wasn’t hurt and be prepared to deliver some justice themselves when the Isles face the Bruins again in their first game of 2018.

Minor Transactions: 12/10/17

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There may only be four games on tap today, but with a busy slate yesterday that saw all but seven teams in action, there should be many squads reviewing their performances and making any necessary changes ahead of a new week:

  • After being called up just yesterday, Sonny Milano is on his way back down to the AHL’s Cleveland Monsters once again. The Columbus Blue Jackets announced the demotion of the struggling young forward late last night after an unimpressive performance against the Arizona Coyotes. Columbus came out on top 1-0, but Milano’s only statistic of note was one giveaway in his 8:34 time on ice. Milano has five goals and five assists in 25 games with the Jackets this season, but has scored only once since October 13th. With Columbus’ depth of talent, they don’t have to put up with that inconsistency.
  • NHL.com’s Igor Eronko reports that the St. Louis Blues have recalled Ivan Barbashev from the AHL. After playing in 30 games for St. Louis in 2016-17, Barbashev has only skated in six NHL contests this season and hasn’t seen big league action since October after being held scoreless to begin the campaign. With the AHL’s Chicago Wolves, Barbashev has four goals and four assists in 18 games, so the 21-year-old Russian isn’t exactly tearing up the minors either. Barbashev needs to find a rhythm this season if he hopes to stick in St. Louis and this recall is his next chance to do so.
  • The Dallas Stars announced the have recalled center Jason Dickinson from the Texas Stars of the AHL this morning. The 22-year old has played in just four games with no points with the Dallas Stars this season, filling in as an emergency forward. This will be no different as the team still has Martin Hanzal out and the status of Antoine Roussel (elbow) and Greg Pateryn (thigh contusion) are both up in the air for tomorrow’s game against the New York Rangers. Dickinson is expected to play as the team’s fourth-line center on Monday, according to NHL.com’s Mark Stepneski. The former first-round pick from 2013 has played well in the AHL, where he has scored 13 goals in 20 games.
  • The Montreal Canadiens announced they have activated winger Nikita Scherbak, who has been out since Oct. 26 after requiring surgery on his right knee, and has been assigned to the Laval Rocket of the AHL. Scherbak had only played with the Canadiens for less than a week when he was injured. He was recalled on Oct. 22 after a strong start with the Rocket when he put up one goal and eight assists in six games. Struggling for offense, Montreal hoped Scherbak might be able to infuse the team with his skills, but he managed to play in just two games and averaged just 7:59 of ice time before injuring his knee.
  • The Anaheim Ducks placed Joseph Blandisi, who was recently acquired as part of the Sami Vatanen and Adam Henrique trade, on injured reserve with an upper body injury. He played in two games with no points after coming over in the trade, but was injured in the Dec. 2 game against the Nashville Predators. He has missed three games and could still be activated for Monday’s game against the Carolina Hurricanes. The team also recalled defenseman Andrew Welinski from the San Diego Gulls of the AHL. The 24-year-old played four years with University of Minnesota-Duluth and has played well in San Diego as the blueliner has six goals and 11 assists in 21 games. This is his first callup to Anaheim.
  • The Associated Press’ Stephen Whyno tweets that the Vegas Golden Knights activated starting goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury off of injured reserve and assigned Maxime Lagace to the Chicago Wolves of the AHL. Fleury was reported yesterday to be ready for Tuesday’s game against the Carolina Hurricanes. He has been out since Oct. 13 with a concussion and has played in just four games this season. The team’s leader has a 2.48 GAA and a 3-1 record. Lagace returns to Chicago after a long stint with the Golden Knights. The 24-year-old made his NHL debut this season and had some good and bad games, wrapping up with the team Saturday as he stopped 36 shots to win his sixth game of the season against the Dallas Stars. He finished his stint having played in 14 games with a 3.79 GAA and a .872 save percentage. Because Lagace was an emergency recall, he does not have to pass through waivers to return to Chicago.

Erik Karlsson On The Trade Block?

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Erik Karlsson’s recent comments combined with the Ottawa Senators’ ongoing struggles has created a rumor firestorm that isn’t likely to die down any time soon. The Senators are 1-8-1 in their last ten games and are sinking further and further out of playoff contention this season. Owner Eugene Melnyk is unsurprisingly sensitive right now and Karlsson stating that he would not take a discount to re-sign in Ottawa when his contract expires after next season has rubbed Melnyk the wrong way, according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman and Nick Kypreos.

That does not mean that Karlsson is being traded right away or even that the Senators plan to trade him at all. However, steps are being taken to allow a potential Karlsson trade to happen. Sportsnet reports that the Senators have asked all of their players with modified no-trade clauses  – Karlsson, Bobby Ryan, Mike Hoffman, Derick Brassard, Zack Smith, Alexandre Burrows, Nate Thompson, Clarke MacArthur, Dion Phaneuf, and Johnny Oduya – to submit their lists of team they would or would not be traded to, per the terms of each individual clause. For Karlsson, he has a a ten-team no-trade list that will now be on record for the Senators and GM Pierre Dorion, should they choose to make a move.

In the opinion of Kypreos, a move should be made and it should be made soon. Karlsson’s market value, the team’s poor performance, and the Senator’s relatively low revenue and unwillingness to spend to the salary cap ceiling all make a Karlsson extension extremely unlikely. Rather than wait until next season for Karlsson to become just a rental player, Kypreos believes that a trade should be made by this summer and the earlier the better. It is hard to imagine Ottawa getting a fair return for arguably the best defenseman in the NHL, but they will surely get a better deal trading Karlsson this season instead of next.

Yet, the public relations train for the Senators will keep rolling. No one will make it known that Karlsson is trade bait until an actual deal is finalized. The team has enough issues that they don’t need their best player disgruntled and the locker room in disarray. Karlsson being traded is a real possibility, but you won’t hear it from Melnyk or anyone else in Ottawa any time soon.

Trade Notes: Veleno, Hutchinson, Penguins

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Few junior-level trades draw the attention of any NHL teams outside of those teams who have drafted players involved. However, when it comes to “exceptional player” and presumptive 2018 top ten pick Joe Veleno, a new team is a whole new opportunity to evaluate his talent. Veleno, a member of the 2017 QMJHL champion Saint John Sea Dogs, has been traded to the Drummondville Voltigeurs for three first-round picks and two second-round picks, per Sportsnet. The Sea Dogs lost top prospects Thomas Chabot (OTT), Jakub Zboril (BOS), and Julien Gauthier (CAR), as well as 2016-17 leading scorers Matthew Highmore (CHI), Mathieu Joseph (TB), and Spencer Smallman (CAR) to the pros this season, resulting in a massive drop-off in success. Veleno and Edmonton Oilers 2017 selection Ostap Safin have been point-per-game scorers this season, but it hasn’t been enough to keep Saint John out of the basement of the QMJHL’s Maritime Division. Veleno, the first and only player awarded early entry to the QMJHL under “exceptional player status”, will now head to Drummondville and hook up with an overachieving Voltigeurs squad that is tied for the most points in the league, despite having few high-end prospects outside of 2018 eligible defenseman Nicolas Beaudin. How Veleno adjusts to not only joining a new team, but stepping in and immediately becoming the most talented player on the roster could be extremely telling for scouts. Veleno is projected by most to be selected somewhere between #5 and #10 overall in June, so success in Drummondville could be enough to ensure that he is a top five pick, while struggle could knock him out of the top ten altogether.

  • Back in the NHL, trade talk surrounding goalies is the hot topic right now. According to Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos (video), the Edmonton Oilers are focused in on Winnipeg Jets goalie Michael Hutchinson and are hoping to make a deal soon. With Cam Talbot injured, Edmonton has been on the hunt for help in net and Hutchison – who is buried in Winnipeg – appears to be their first choice. As Kypreos states, the only delay on the deal is the health of Jets backup Steve Mason. Mason is on his way back from a concussion and Winnipeg wants to take their time with his evaluation before trading away their goalie depth. Although it is Eric Comrie, not Hutchison, currently backing up Connor Hellebuyck, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff holds all the power in the negotiation and clearly wants to play it safe.
  • The Pittsburgh Penguins are also thought to be in the hunt for backup goaltending. Although starter Matt Murray appears to be back to full health and ready to return, there are doubts about the play of young Tristan Jarry and Casey DeSmith behind him. Jarry was pulled from last night’s game against the Toronto Maple Leafs after allowing three goals on 16 shots and DeSmith allowed the game-winner on one of the only nine shots he faced. Jarry has been okay overall this season, especially as a 22-year-old rookie, but DeSmith has struggled mightily in his two brief appearances and cannot be relied upon at this point in time. With Murray also not playing his best hockey thus far – he has a save percentage just north of .900 and a goals against average just south of 3.00 – the Penguins may want a more seasoned, dependable #2 or #3 behind him, something they tried and failed to find with Antti Niemi. 

Jaden Schwartz Out Six Weeks

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The context behind the St. Louis Blues’ call-up of Ivan Barbashev is now clear. The Blues have announced that Jaden Schwartz suffered a right ankle injury in yesterday’s game against the Detroit Red Wings. He will be re-evaluated in six weeks, during which time the team will have to lean on Barbashev or another AHL forward as his replacement.

This is a devastating blow for the red-hot Blues. Schwartz has struggled with injuries in the past but has always produced at a high level when healthy. Schwartz has 35 points in 30 games and an incredible +23 rating. Schwartz is currently second on the team in points, goals, and plus/minus behind only linemate Brayden Schenn and tied with Schenn for assists. His impact on special teams can also not be understated.

Schwartz’s absence will be quite the test for St. Louis. While they were fortunate to get Patrik Berglund back from injury before Schwartz went down and have also seen surprising production from the likes of Vladimir Sobotka, Scottie Upshall, and Dmitrij Jaskin, it will still be very difficult to make up for the loss of Schwartz for the next month and a half. Barbashev, the presumptive replacement for Schwartz as a top nine forward, had been held scoreless so far in the NHL this season and Wade Megan and Tage Thompson had the same luck in their short stints. One of those three young forwards needs to step up or else the Blues could see their lead in the Central slip away in no time, with the Nashville Predators and Winnipeg Jets right on their tail.

Carter Hutton Injured, Blues Employ Emergency Backup

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As is the case a few times each season, the St. Louis Blues were forced to bring in an inexperienced amateur as their backup goalie for their game tonight against the Dallas Stars. The team announced that regular understudy Carter Hutton had been injured earlier today in the morning skate, suffering a lower-body condition that was serious enough that he could not dress behind Jake Allen tonight. Although they were quick to recall Ville Husso from the AHL’s San Antonio Rampage on an emergency basis, sending rookie winger Sammy Blais down in the process, the 7:00 PM flight out of south Texas was not going to be in time for puck drop of tonight’s game.

So, the Blues have turned to local goalie Tyler Stewart. Stewart signed an amateur tryout agreement with the team and took part in warm-ups tonight. The plan was for Stewart to to serve as the backup until Husso arrived from San Antonio, but even that brief experience has to be the thrill of a lifetime for the St. Louis native. Stewart was the starting goalie for St. Louis University’s ACHA Division II squad for three seasons, but never came close to having pro prospects. A chance to wear the colors of his hometown team is quite the event.

Should Hutton miss substantial time, Husso may not be the best option to backup Allen long-term. The 22-year-old has yet to see any NHL action, but did spend time in the ECHL last year, plus his AHL numbers this season have been less than spectacular. Husso was the quickest recall for the Blues, but Jordan Binnington, currently on loan to the Providence Bruins out on the east coast, is likely to be called upon as the backup instead. Binnington boasts an impeccable 1.83 GAA and .930 save percentage this season in Providence and made his NHL debut last season.

Penguins Shifting Focus On Defense

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Just last week, the Pittsburgh Penguins were in the enviable position of having enough depth on defense to be a seller, despite their position as a clear-cut buyer in terms of contending for a third straight Stanley Cup title. However, the Penguins know too well from their experiences over the past few years just how quickly that feeling of comfort on the blue line can change with injury. In placing Justin Schultz on injured reserve this morning, with the expectation being that he will be out “weeks” at the very least, Pittsburgh’s opinion on their blue line has changed in an instant.

Ian Cole was the man on the block last week, with many teams having immediate interest in obtaining the services on the solid stay-at-home defender. An impending free agent who has been devalued in Pittsburgh following the signing of a similar player in Matt Hunwick and the re-emergence of Olli Maatta this season, Cole had become expendable for the Penguins. However, as beat writer Jason Mackey indicates, any talk of moving Cole is completely off the table for now with Schultz out of the lineup.

In fact, the health of Schultz going forward could turn the Pens from sellers to buyers on the blue line. Frank Corrado, who was called up to take Schultz’s spot on the roster, has not worked out so far. If that continues, Pittsburgh will at least need to add another depth option. Chad Ruhwedel, while remarkably reliable for Pittsburgh over the past year plus, is best suited for that #7 depth option role. Hunwick and Cole, while both experienced, successful defenders, are very similar and similarly one-dimensional. Beyond a healthy grouping of (the also injury-prone) Kris Letang, Brian Dumoulin, and Maatta, there are serious questions without Schultz to round out the top four. If “weeks” turn to “months” for Schultz to return to action, GM Jim Rutherford could end up on the opposite side of the defensive trade market.

Bettman Addresses Seattle And Carolina

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NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman spoke to the media tonight, following the NHL Board of Governors meeting, and filled in many of the blanks regarding major league story lines in Seattle and Carolina. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman and TSN’s Pierre LeBrun were among many in attendance to run through the long list of Bettman’s answers.

Following the recent approval by the city of Seattle to build a new arena in hopes of recruiting NHL and NBA teams to the city, there has been no bigger story around the league than the possibility of another expansion franchise in the near future. The proposal included a projected cost of $660MM to construct the arena, but according to Bettman, that will be only half the cost to join the NHL. Bettman confirmed this evening that the Board of Governors has agreed that they will accept an expansion application from the Seattle group, led by billionaire businessman David Bonderman, but that the board has set the expansion fee at $650MM, which is $150MM more than what Bill Foley and the Vegas Golden Knights just recently paid. Bettman clarified that the application also does not guarantee that a team will be placed in Seattle.

However, it certainly seems like a plan is in motion, with an eye on the 2020-21 season. Bettman specifically mentioned that the Seattle group may begin a ticket drive, similar to the one that found great success in Las Vegas. He also was clear that the league would not be accepting bids from any other cities, despite concrete interest from Quebec City and Houston among others. He also says that – as of now – there are no teams that the league sees as re-location candidates. The conference balance that the Seattle market would bring, in addition to a city with hockey history, seems to make Seattle a perfect market for expansion.

Speaking of re-location, the Carolina Hurricanes aren’t going anywhere. Bettman confirmed the report that Tom Durndon has signed the purchase agreement to buy up the majority share of the  ’Canes from Peter Karmanos, but added the stern caveat that “this is not a team that will be moved.” Durndon will take on 52% of the team’s shares, with Karmanos holding on to 48% and Durndon having the option to buy the remaining shares over three years. The sale is not quite done yet, but should be in the books soon, with Durndon vowing to keep the team in Raleigh once he is in control.

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