Archives for December 2022

With the new year fast approaching, the NHL season is in full swing. Teams are jockeying for playoff position, and many players with expiring contracts across the NHL are playing games that could ultimately determine what type of payday they might receive in the summer.

In a multi-part series, we’ll take a look at each position group of the upcoming free agent class, and do a rundown on how those upcoming unrestricted free agents have performed this year. Which players have increased their odds of landing a massive contract? Which players have potentially hurt their earning potential with their play? We’ll break it all down here.

The Marquee Names

Bo Horvat, Vancouver Canucks

Just a few months ago, it seemed impossible to imagine this current Canucks core led by anyone other than Horvat. The Canucks’ captain has been a centerpiece player in British Columbia since being drafted ninth overall in 2013, and the value he provides to the franchise both on and off the ice can oftentimes seem irreplaceable.

But with Vancouver’s season running off the rails, the team’s recent extension of J.T. Miller to a massive new contract, and their front office’s stated desire to gain more financial flexibility, it’s getting harder and harder to imagine a path where Horvat remains in Vancouver.

While Horvat may be disappointed at the increasingly realistic prospect of his Canucks departure, what should cheer him up is his play so far this season. Horvat has scored 22 goals and 31 points in 32 games, a number that puts him tied for fourth in goals in the NHL.

Horvat will be 28 years old when he first takes the ice with a new contract, a factor that could make him a more attractive long-term investment to teams than the players in their thirties that typically populate a free agent class. That, combined with his well-regarded defensive play and value as a leader means Horvat could be in a position to potentially earn the largest contract of the 2023 free agent class.

Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings

Larkin is in many ways similar to Horvat. Like Horvat, Larkin is a team captain and a player who is known for providing value on both ends of the ice as well as off of it.

Unlike Horvat, though, there is a strong possibility that Larkin remains with the only franchise he’s ever known.

With 31 points in 31 games, Larkin is currently on pace for another season at or near the point-per-game threshold.

He’ll have just turned 27 years old when he hits free agency, and the reality of the NHL is that in-their-prime centers who combine offensive production and all-around play very rarely hit the open market.

While fans may not be pleased that an extension hasn’t been hammered out yet, Larkin has played exactly as well as anyone could have reasonably expected of him, and that deal should be coming.

The Red Wings’ cap sheet is not nearly as constrained as nearly every other team in the NHL, so with how well Larkin has been playing it would be a genuinely shocking development for him to do anything but remain in the Motor City.

Ryan O’Reilly, St. Louis Blues

While this section is labeled as free agency’s “marquee names” at the center position, it could also be called “the captains.” That’s because like Horvat, Larkin, and the two other names in this section, O’Reilly is a quality center and captain of his team set to hit free agency this summer.

Unlike the four other names in this group, though, O’Reilly’s play this season has not helped his case to earn a major contract this summer. And that decline in his stock is coming from his play at both ends of the ice.

As one would expect, the 2019 Conn Smythe Trophy winner is leading the Blues in short-handed ice time per game and playing a centerpiece defensive role for his club. Last season, the Blues had a top-five penalty kill, canceling opponents’ power plays at an 84.1% clip. O’Reilly led the way in getting the Blues to that point.

This year, it’s a different story. O’Reilly is still playing in that top defensive role, but the Blues are near the bottom of the NHL with a 71.3% penalty kill rate. That’s not all on O’Reilly’s shoulders, but as the player with the most ice time in those situations and coach Craig Berube’s most trusted defensive weapon, he does bear some responsibility for that decline.

What’s also declined as sharply as the Blues penalty kill is O’Reilly’s scoring numbers. O’Reilly has scored just 15 points in 33 games, a 37-point 82-game pace. Just two years ago, O’Reilly scored at nearly a point-per-game rate. Last year, he scored a healthy 58 points in 78 games.

As far as his next contract is concerned, if he doesn’t manage to go on a hot streak and get into the 40 or 50-point range, that offensive decline could put a serious dent in his earning potential. That’s doubly true of any perceived decline in his defensive game, as that’s his calling card.

Just as the Blues are looking to right the ship during what has been so far an uneven campaign, O’Reilly is likely looking to get back to the level of play he put forth in prior seasons in order to earn the best possible contract this summer.

The playoffs have been the games where O’Reilly’s star shines the brightest, so perhaps he’ll need to lead the way on another deep playoff run to alleviate fears that a steep age-related decline is setting in.

Patrice Bergeron, Boston Bruins

Bergeron’s free agency case is quite simple. Unlike most players, he’s not really in need of a “stock watch” entry. He’s scored 26 points in 32 games, could very well win yet another Selke Trophy, and is captaining a Bruins team that is currently laying waste to the entire NHL.

And he’s also costing the Bruins just $2.5MM against the cap.

Just as Bergeron is a special player, his upcoming free agency is a special situation. As he did this past summer, Bergeron will likely take some time to reflect and decide if he wants to return for another season, and then agree with the Bruins on an extension that makes sense for both parties.

He could go on a nine-game scoreless drought. He could make a few uncharacteristic defensive lapses and single-handedly tank the Bruins’ league-leading penalty kill a few percentage points. Doesn’t matter. A decision on his future this summer is entirely in his own hands, which is a right he’s earned after nearly two decades in Boston.

Jonathan Toews, Chicago Blackhawks

Toews, a three-time Stanley Cup-winning captain, and one-time Selke Trophy winner, is in a similar situation to Bergeron. The one complicating factor in Toews’ case compared to Bergeron’s is the state of the Blackhawks.

The Blackhawks are on a fast track to the highest odds for the NHL draft lottery, and there’s been much speculation over whether Toews wants to stick around in Chicago through what appears to be a painful, scorched-earth rebuild.

If he chooses to test the market, it’s likely that choice would come from a motivation to win one more Stanley Cup ring, which means his market and next contract could ultimately be decided by personal preference, rather than financial factors.

On the ice, Toews’ play has been solid, and while he’s not the lineup-topping two-way force he once was, his 17 points in 30 games on such a poor team is nothing to scoff at, and there are far worse second or third-line centers a team could have than Toews.

The Solid Contributors

Ivan Barbashev, St. Louis Blues

If one just compares this season to 2021-22, Barbashev’s stock in advance of his potential free agency is down. Barbashev scored 26 goals and 60 points last season, and now he is scoring at a 40-point pace. That decline alone will likely mean fewer dollars on his next contract.

But if we put Barbashev’s 2021-22 offensive explosion into a bit more context and look at a longer-term outlook, his stock would undoubtedly have to be viewed as being up.

Before last season, Barbashev’s career-high in points was 26. He was seen as more of a two-way center whose offensive skills simply were not refined enough or dangerous enough to allow him to create offensive opportunities consistently in the NHL.

Last year, Barbashev changed that narrative, and even though he hasn’t reached those heights so far this season he’s still managing to play at a 40-point pace. 40-point centers who can hold their own on both ends of the ice remain valuable, and while Barbashev isn’t going to win Selke trophies he does have a defensive dimension to his game.

Barbashev just recently turned 27, and if a team buys into the idea that he can return to scoring around the 60-point mark, he could get paid. But even if teams are less optimistic about his offensive game, his play this year is still far above what he once put forth at the NHL level, and has put him in a position to earn a quality contract.

J.T. Compher, Colorado Avalanche

When Nazem Kadri faced some injury issues in the 2022 playoffs, it was Compher’s job to step into a greater role down the middle and ensure the machine that was the 2021-22 Colorado Avalanche kept moving. He did exactly that and won a Stanley Cup as a result.

This year, with Kadri now in Calgary and the Avalanche battling a downright absurd amount of injuries, Compher has quietly stepped forward and provided competence, reliability, and all-around value. He’s scored 16 points in 31 games so far this year, and that 42-point pace, if sustained, would fly past his career-high of 33 points.

He’ll be 28 years old this summer, and his ability to play under pressure and step forward into a higher role in the lineup than he was originally slotted to occupy should make him a coveted name on the market.

Sean Monahan, Montreal Canadiens

Once a slam-dunk 25-30 goal scorer, injuries had derailed Monahan’s career so severely that the Flames paid a future first-round pick to the Canadiens just so they would absorb his contract. Since that trade, Monahan has had a bit of a career revival, leading a young Canadiens squad to a surprisingly competent start and scoring at a far better rate than he’s done in the past two seasons.

So far this year, Monahan has scored 17 points in 25 games. He’s battling an injury again, but it’s not one that’s expected to keep him from making his return to the lineup with a ways to go left in the season.

While Monahan’s struggles with injuries may give teams pause about a major long-term commitment, his play in Montreal has been a resoundingly positive development for his career. He may not receive the kind of contract he once looked in line to cash in on, but he’ll likely still be an in-demand piece if he can keep up this career rebirth when he returns from IR.

Max Domi, Chicago Blackhawks

From one angle, it seems as though Domi’s decision to take a one-year, $3MM deal last summer from the Blackhawks was done largely to put himself in the best possible position for a summer of 2023 free agency. So far, he’s done just that.

After a season that saw him play unevenly with the Columbus Blue Jackets and be traded to the Carolina Hurricanes at the deadline, Domi signed with Chicago likely with the hopes that his natural offensive talent would mesh with that of the Blackhawks’ franchise face, Patrick Kane.

Domi has indeed played with Kane, and while they are far from a perfect partnership, they are first and second on the Blackhawks in scoring, with Kane at 22 points in 31 games and Domi at 21 in 31.

There has always been the possibility of a higher offensive ceiling with Domi, who scored 72 points in 2018-19, but he wasn’t able to reach that point in Columbus or in his short stay in Carolina.

While Domi is undeniably an extremely talented player on an individual basis, his vision can be lacking at times and he doesn’t always play as a member of a three-player unit, sometimes preferring to use his tantalizing skills on his own to create offense without thinking about how he can best utilize the players on the ice with him.

In the right fit, Domi can thrive, and with a bit of luck, he’s shown that he can be among a team’s top scorers. But he’s far from a sure thing. If Domi can play well after his seemingly inevitable midseason trade to a contender, and finish near his current scoring pace of 56 points, he’ll enter the market on stronger footing than he did last season.

Jordan Staal, Carolina Hurricanes

Staal is in a similar position to Toews and Bergeron, even though he’s not quite the caliber of player they are/were. He’s a beloved face of the franchise in Carolina and in a position where he’s likely to remain there at a reasonable price.

In his recent 32 Thoughts blog, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman stated that “no one is expecting [Staal] to leave Carolina.” Staal has scored 14 points in 33 games so far this year, which is a 34-point pace. That’s right in line with the 36 and 38 points he’s scored in the last two seasons.

Staal still shoulders a major defensive role in Carolina, handling difficult defensive matchups and playing the most time on the penalty kill of any Hurricanes forward. Although the Hurricanes’ short-handed unit has taken a bit of a step back so far this year, that won’t stop Staal from earning a market-rate extension in Carolina if that’s the path he chooses.

The Role Players

Erik Haula, New Jersey Devils

Haula, who will be 32 when free agency opens next year, has entered a bit of a journeyman phase in his career. He’s played for six different teams in the past half-decade and could play for his eighth NHL franchise if he leaves the New Jersey Devils this summer.

A versatile forward who can play center or on the wing, Haula plays a Swiss Army Knife role, scoring at a 35-point pace and on the Devils’ second penalty-killing unit.

Haula’s age may keep him from a long-term pact, but his stock is holding steady as he provides steady veteran two-way play to a young Devils team that’s had an extremely impressive season.

Frederick Gaudreau, Minnesota Wild

Gaudreau is a bit of a late bloomer, getting his first complete season as a full-time NHLer at the age of 28. He didn’t waste that opportunity, though, scoring 14 goals and 44 points in 76 games.

This year, Gaudreau’s offense hasn’t gotten back to that point, as he has just 14 points in 33 games. But he averages the most short-handed ice time per game on the Wild, helping Minnesota’s penalty-kill to an above-average 13th-place rank so far this year.

His free agency will be somewhat difficult to predict, as he’ll have only two seasons on his resume as an everyday NHLer. But as of right now while his stock is down from where it was last season, he’s still put himself in a strong position for an undrafted former minor leaguer.

 Lars Eller, Washington Capitals

While Eller, who will be 34 during free agency, isn’t the player he once was, he’s still providing value for the Capitals. He plays a reliable two-way game and has scored 13 points in 34 games. He’s a veteran who is in his seventh year as a Capital and has a Stanley Cup-winning goal on his resume.

His stock is down from where it might have been a few years ago when he was one of the league’s best third-line centers and comfortably capable of scoring 15 goals and 35-40 points. But in a league where centers are always in demand, Eller has kept up his play enough to put him in a solid position if he enters the market next year.

Oskar Sundqvist, Detroit Red Wings

Versatility is the name of the game with Sundqvist. The Red Wings, like the Blues for many years, have deployed Sundqvist in all sorts of roles, as a center or winger, as a physical fourth-liner, or as a complementary piece next to skilled players such as Pius Suter and Dominik Kubalik.

But just as versatility is what Sundqvist is the constant of Sundqvist’s game, so is battling injury issues. Sundqvist’s career-high for games played in a season is 74, and that came all the way back in 2018-19. Since that point, Sundqvist hasn’t managed to cross the 60-point mark in any given year.

The trouble he’s had staying healthy will likely be his biggest question mark on the market. Teams know what he can bring on the ice, but they might question how often he can do so. Still, so far this season Sundqvist’s play in Detroit has pushed his stock up, and what could really sustain that upward trend as he gets closer to free agency would be a continued clean bill of health.

David Kampf, Toronto Maple Leafs

An undrafted player out of the Czech Republic, Kampf is in line to cash in after turning in quality play in a bottom-six role on one of the NHL’s biggest stages. In his first year in Toronto, Kampf scored 11 goals and 26 points, while also playing nearly two and a half minutes per night on one of the league’s better penalty kills.

This year, Kampf has resumed his role anchoring the Maple Leafs’ play with a man in the box and has scored at a 31-point pace. His stock has been moving steadily upward since he arrived in Toronto.

While part of that is likely due to the fact that the size and fervor of the Toronto market magnified his performances, attributing his rising stock to the Toronto factor alone would be doing a disservice to the hard work Kampf has put forth. He’s genuinely turned himself into a reliable, quality NHL bottom-sixer.

Kampf isn’t going to break the bank, but he’ll be a 28-year-old free agent with two straight strong years on his resume in a massive market.

If he chooses to head to free agency, there’ll most definitely be interest from across the league. The only potential threat to his market could be the flat cap, as defense-first bottom-six players like Kampf could be the first in line to be squeezed in the market by the leaguewide lack of cap space.

Teddy Blueger, Pittsburgh Penguins

Blueger, 28, returned from a season-opening injury and looks like he hasn’t missed a beat. The Latvian has been a responsible bottom-six center for the Penguins, scoring 28 points in 65 games last year. He has six points in 18 games this year and has resumed his role as a defensive specialist.

As mentioned with Kampf, it’s possible that a minimal cap increase squeezes defensive specialist players into smaller contracts than they likely deserve. We saw that happen with Zach Aston-Reese last summer, as he is a capable defensive winger who was forced to sign a PTO with Toronto in the absence of suitable full contract offers.

With that in mind, it may be in Blueger’s best interest to take a one-year deal and re-enter the market in a raised-cap environment. His stock at the moment remains as steady as his play, but will the market be able to catch up?

Tomas Nosek, Boston Bruins

Nosek, 30, is the fourth-line center on what is right now the NHL’s best team. He plays responsibly in his own end, kills penalties, and chips in some offense once in a while. And now that he’s a veteran of over 350 NHL games, it’s become clear that this is the kind of player Nosek is at this point in his career, there’s no real mystery there.

He’s a consistent presence, and his consistency extends to his offensive production, where he is scoring at an 18-point pace after scoring 17 last season. There is always a place for guys like Nosek in the league, even if he doesn’t end up cashing in on a major contract.

Nick Bonino, San Jose Sharks

A veteran of nearly 800 NHL games, Bonino is a known quantity across the NHL. The two-time Stanley Cup champion will be 35 by the time free agency opens next year, and without an extension will be searching for the seventh NHL home of his career.

Bonino brings value defensively and has shown some recent flashes offensively, scoring 16 goals last season. He has four goals and nine points in 32 games this season. Looking just at his offensive production, it appears his stock is down, but with the Sharks’ penalty kill firing on all cylinders with Bonino a major part of it, one has to imagine he’s not fretting about his NHL future too much.

Others Of Note

Nick Bjugstad, Arizona Coyotes

The 30-year-old veteran signed a one-year, $900K deal in Arizona after a challenging two-year stretch in Minnesota. He’s been exactly as advertised for Arizona, scoring seven goals in 31 games. The Coyotes are a bad team, but Bjugstad has been decent and his play this year should be enough to protect his spot and earn him a deal for next season, even if it does end up being around his current $900K cap hit.

Noel Acciari, St. Louis Blues

Acciari is in a similar position to Bjugstad as a shoot-fist bottom-sixer with some goal-scoring luck so far this year. The 31-year-old has eight goals in 33 games and has managed to hold down a regular spot in St. Louis, playing anywhere from the first to fourth line.

His play likely merits a deal around what he’s earning against the cap right now, $1.25MM, but the flat salary cap could make squeezing out every last dollar a bit more of a difficult prospect, potentially making a sub-$1MM deal more likely.

Derek Stepan, Carolina Hurricanes

While Acciari and Bjugstad have found some scoring luck, the same cannot be said about Stepan. The former New York Ranger has scored just four points in 30 games so far this year.

While Stepan’s name still carries some value to some, a player’s play always does the most talking. in 2022-23, Stepan’s play has been silent, and it could cost him on the open market.