After a summer of trade rumors, it seems the J.T. Miller saga has reached its conclusion. The Vancouver Canucks announced today that their star center has signed a seven-year, $56MM contract carrying an $8MM AAV.
As mentioned, this deal comes after an offseason where Miller, who was set to hit unrestricted free agency next summer, was a frequent target of all sorts of trade rumors and speculation. Last month, we covered how Miller’s representation had made it clear that they would be cutting off all contract talks once the 2022-23 season began. So, that upcoming deadline might have moved the pace of contract talks forward. The Canucks might have paid attention to what happened to the Calgary Flames with their own star forward, Johnny Gaudreau after Gaudreau took a similar stance last season and cut off extension talks once the 2021-22 season began. Gaudreau left for Columbus in the summer, and the Flames had to scramble to find a replacement as a result.
With this extension signed, the Canucks have avoided a similar fate. This deal is one of extreme significance for the Canucks. First and foremost, they have locked in their star centerman for what could end up being the rest of his playing days. Miller will be 30 when the contract begins, and by the time it finishes he could be at or near the end of his NHL career.
With that in mind, the seven-year term might concern fans of the Canucks. It’s unlikely that Miller will be worth the $8MM cap hit he’ll command when he’s past the age of 35. That being said, though, it’s not a certainty that he’ll be an ineffective player, and the expected rise of the cap could limit the damage of this deal in its later years. If Miller can age as gracefully as Claude Giroux, for example, who received a three-year deal at a $6.5MM cap hit despite turning 35 in January, then the term will be less of an issue. But he’ll need to stay in top shape in order to do so.
The benefit of this seven-year term, though, is that the cap hit of the deal is lower than some might have expected for a player of Miller’s caliber. Miller was extremely productive last season, scoring 32 goals and 99 points in 80 games. He was an elite offensive force, showcasing the ability to take over shifts and elevate the play of his linemates.
If Miller can continue to produce at around a point-per-game rate, Miller will be underpaid at an $8MM cap hit. Miller’s cap hit is lower than that of Sharks center Tomas Hertl, who has a career-high of 74 points, and identical to that of Ryan Johansen, who has crossed the 70-point plateau just once in his career. To put it simply, Miller’s market value is higher than the $8MM he’s being paid, which, at least in the short-to-medium term, is a win for the Canucks. It’s just the final few years of this deal that pose the most downside risk.
Looking at this more broadly, the contract has major implications for the Canucks franchise as a whole. This is not an extension a team signs if they are looking to re-tool or rebuild. This is an extension that a team signs when they want to capitalize on the next few years. With this extension, the Canucks have seemingly given themselves a green light to operate in a win-at-all-costs manner in the short term. For a franchise still waiting on its first Stanley Cup victory, that’s a sensible choice to make.
The challenge for the Canucks with this contract comes in terms of how it impacts the rest of GM Patrik Allvin’s roster construction. The team’s captain and second-line center, Bo Horvat, is set to hit free agency next summer. With Miller now extended, Elias Pettersson capable of playing center, and other long-term contracts already on their books for Quinn Hughes, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Conor Garland, and Ilya Mikheyev, will the Canucks be able to finalize a Horvat extension? Should they?
That’s an issue for the team to solve after next season, and perhaps the answer can come in the form of shedding their relatively highly-priced middle-of-the-lineup players such as Tanner Pearson and Jason Dickinson. For this season, the mandate for coach Bruce Boudreau is clear: win as many games as possible and try to go on a playoff run. There are those who believed the Canucks would be best served to enter into a rebuild, and with this contract, it’s clear that’s not the direction the organization will pursue.
Will it work out for them? At this point, we don’t know. But what we do know is that the Canucks have found a way to retain one of their most talented players for what could end up being the rest of his playing days.
There will be those who don’t like the cost of this contract or the term that’s attached, and that’s understandable. Retaining J.T. Miller’s services will cost the Canucks a lot of money over the next few years, and the team’s front office has chosen to accept the immense risks of that come along with that commitment. But if Allvin and team president Jim Rutherford want to give the Canucks the best possible chance of winning a Stanley Cup in the next couple of seasons, there really was no other choice they could make.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Good deal for both imo..
Great for the Nucks!
GMs continue to throw money away. I believe Miller is a super player but at age 31 I’d be willing to give him 8.5 million per for 2 seasons.
^ That’s why you are an armchair GM
Why would he accept that? Some team would have offered him this, or close to, as a UFA coming up
You not liking this contract cements the notion that this is a good contract, and your amusing two year offer is just another in a long line of reasons that your GM career never got any traction.
All the lame sports writers (aka – failed player agents) were floating rumours ever since the last trade deadline that Miller was going to be traded.
Didn’t happen at the deadline so they started rumours it would happen when the Free Agent season started, and at the draft and after some top named Free Agents were signed.
Those failed player agents spent 6 months trying to convince everyone that Vancouver wanted to trade it’s top scorer – for no reason at all.
It’s more like all those losers were hoping Miller would be traded to one of “their” teams.
They’re probably all crying in their coffee now. Couldn’t make it as a player agent and suck as a sports writer.
Good summary
Why are you so angry?
Failed as a player agent, most likely.
This guy or Horvat you have to take this guy.
Horvat trade rumours. Let’s start those now!
Off to Colorado for Byrum
The best decision for VAN and one of their best in a while.
Safe to say that yinzer plan to let Malkin walk to wait for Miller to come home was not a good one.
Ow. This is a deal that will age terribly.
Thank you Pawtuket! We are all armchair GMs and Thank you for seeing my point. With the offer on Miller I made you said that he would have rejected it and you are right, But then I would have held on to all the money Vancouver gave him and I would entertain other avenues to Improve the club.
Thx. You’d have a 32yr old Toews for something?
Or 12mil for MacKinnon?
What avenues do you have in mind and have you quit your job since you seem so confident that you’re next in line for an NHLGig?
Simply for the entertainment value, will you please tell us about those other avenues that you would explore. Based on your history of yapping that pretty much every contract is too long or for too much money, it would seem that your roster would have no players on it.
Say goodbye to Horvat for a defenceman
I had been hoping once the season ended the Rangers would make a move for him and have him return – second line center on that team would’ve been outstanding. Trading pieces were there as well as picks if necessary.