Archives for August 2019

Snapshots: Markov, Drouin, Scherbak

August 31, 2019 at 7:56 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

Former NHL star Andrei Markov expects to play in the NHL next season and right now the question for the 40-year-old Russian is where he might play. However, one thing is quite clear. He has no intention of signing a player tryout (PTO).

Talking to Markov’s North American agent, Allen Walsh, TSN’s Melnick in the Afternoon, the agent made it clear that there are five teams that have expressed interest in the veteran blueliner’s services and he expects to sign a contract somewhere before training camp.

“Andrei and I have never even discussed a PTO and I’m expecting and I’m assuming that he’ll be signed to a contract before the start of training camp,” said Walsh. “We don’t feel any time pressure. I would expect that there will be something done before the start of training camp based on my discussions so far.”

The agent also made it clear that Markov wants to play on a winning team that has a chance to win a Stanley Cup title.

“He’s certainly looking to play on a team where there is a role for him,” said Walsh. “We believe that he can really help any team’s power play and that he can contribute meaningful 5-on-5 minutes. He can serve on as a veteran presence in the room and he’s always been known as a bit of a quiet guy, but he’s also been known as a quiet leader. He’s always been in amazing physical shape his entire career and he’s in great shape right now. He’s been training all summer. He’s looking to play for a team that has the potential to contend. He would love to win and be part of a winning season … He has a lot to offer to a team and he’s made it clear to me from the first minute that he called me that he desperately wants to play in the NHL next year.”

While many players look at different avenues to improve their game, The Athletic’s Marc Antoine Godin (subscription required) writes that Montreal Canadiens forward Jonathan Drouin has spent much of his summer in the video room analyzing his game in hopes of breaking his inconsistent play. Drouin reached out to assistant coach Dominique Ducharme and the two have been breaking down his game in hopes of unlocking the next level of his game. While possessed with incredible skills, Drouin has struggled to take his game to the next level like everyone expected him to do back when the Tampa Bay Lightning took him with the third-overall pick in 2013. While he did score 18 goals and tie a career-high of 53 points, many feel that he can do much better, especially if he can show more consistency. Perhaps the most interesting discovery was that Drouin wasn’t attacking through the inside of the slot often enough.
Former Los Angeles Kings forward Nikita Scherbak might be looking for work once again. The 23-year-old forward signed a three-year deal with Avangard Omsk back in June, but according to a Russian website, omskinform.ru (translation required), Scherbak has been unimpressive in pre-season tournaments and the team may look to trade or even terminate his contract. Scherbak appeared in 37 NHL games, including eight with Los Angeles last season, but has not been able to retain a full-time role and didn’t even dominate in the AHL last season, scoring just 11 points in 23 games. If released, the 23-year-old could be looking for a new team.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Washington Capitals

August 31, 2019 at 6:29 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Washington Capitals

Current Cap Hit: $82,864,294 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

G Ilya Samsonov (two years, $925K)
F Jonas Siegenthaler (one year, $714K)

Potential Bonuses

Samsonov: $550K
Siegenthaler: $83K

The one failing of the Washington Capitals and their dominance of their run over the years has been their inability, lately, to develop young talent that can step in. Again there are few players on entry-level contracts who can help ease the Capitals’ salary cap. However, the team believes that they might be close to bringing in their top prospect in Samsonov. The talented Russian goaltender finally arrived in North America last season and had mixed results in his first year in the AHL. However, Samsonov is likely to get a long look in training camp this season and even if he doesn’t make the team, he’s due to make his NHL debut at some point this season. After all, the Capitals must figure out quickly whether they have their future No. 1 netminder.

Siegenthaler finally looks ready to step into a permanent role on the Capitals’ blueline. The 22-year-old showed promise last year in 26 regular season games and even saw some playoff action with four games last season. The defensive defenseman is a perfect addition to a defense that is still dealing with injuries.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Nicklas Backstrom ($6.7MM, UFA)
G Braden Holtby ($6.1MM, UFA)
D Radko Gudas ($2.35MM, UFA)
D Christian Djoos ($1.25MM, RFA)
F Chandler Stephenson ($1.05MM, RFA)
F Travis Boyd ($800K, RFA)
F Brendan Leipsic ($700K, RFA)

Washington will have a big decision to make next offseason as they have two of their core pieces who will become unrestricted free agents and with serious cap issue for several years coming, the team will almost assuredly have to make a tough decision and are likely to lose at least one of them for nothing next summer. Neither is likely to be traded considering the team is strong enough to compete for a Stanley Cup, but the team just can’t afford both. The most likely scenario is the team finds a way to retain Backstrom, but will be forced to let Holtby go, considering that top goaltenders have been cashing in and the Capitals likely won’t have the money to keep him around. Of course much could change, but considering that Washington does have a top goaltending prospect who is almost ready for the NHL, losing Holtby might be an easier blow to take than losing Backstrom.

The remaining group will have to prove their worth. The most interesting player could be Gudas, who is considered a likeable locker room guy, but the Capitals will have to wait and see how well the veteran blueliner fits in with their defense and what the cost of retaining him in the future will be.

Two Years Remaining

F Alex Ovechkin ($9.54MM, UFA)
F Jakub Vrana ($3.35MM, RFA)

While it’s hard to imagine a Capitals team without their star in Ovechkin seems highly unlikely, Washington will have to see whether they can convince their star to re-sign. He’ll be 36 years old by the time he signs his next contract, which means he has quite a few options and while re-signing with Washington is the most likely possibility, the veteran has a number of options which could include returning to Russia to finish his career. Signing with Washington also could hinge on how the Capitals will look in two years. If the team looks like an aging team that has little real chance at winning a title, Ovechkin could also look elsewhere in the NHL for a last chance for a Stanley Cup. The Athletic’s Jesse Granger suggested a while back that Ovechkin might be a good fit with Vegas in a couple of years, suggesting that his relationship with George McPhee could be enough to bring him over there.

The team needs Vrana to continue his development. A player who struggled and was a big question mark at this time a season ago, Vrana answered a lot of questions last year with a 24-goal, 47-point season. If he can continue that success and be a consistent top-six player, the team will likely have hand him a long-term deal in two years.

Three Years Remaining

D Michal Kempny ($2.5MM, UFA)
G Pheonix Copley ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Nic Dowd ($750K, UFA)

The team lacks many major contracts here, but if Kempny continues to prove to be a solid defensive presence on Washington’s blueline, the team may have to hand out a significant contract. While the defender will be out for the start of the season and remains an unknown after a season-ending hamstring injury, he has proven to be quite reliable since the Capitals acquired him back at the trade deadline in 2018. Copley, who posted solid numbers as a full-time back-up goalie, likely will hold down his job, but will be challenged by Samsonov, who the team hopes will be their goalie of the future.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D John Carlson ($8MM through 2025-26)
F Evgeny Kuznetsov ($7.8MM through 2024-25)
F T.J. Oshie ($5.75MM through 2024-25)
F Tom Wilson ($5.17MM through 2023-24)
D Dmitry Orlov ($5.1MM through 2022-23)
F Lars Eller ($3.5MM through 2022-23)
F Carl Hagelin ($2.75MM through 2022-23)
F Richard Panik ($2.75MM through 2022-23)
D Nick Jensen ($2.5MM through 2022-23)
F Garnet Hathaway ($1.5MM through 2022-23)

The bulk of the team’s contracts are here with plenty of money being dedicated to the team between the next four to seven years. Many of these players will likely not be worth the money they are paying for them by that time and much will depend on whether Washington can supplement the team with young, cheap talent. However, the core of the team comes down to Carlson, Kuznetsov, Oshie and Wilson, all of which are currently key to the team’s status as threats to capture another Stanley Cup in the next few years. Carlson, who hits 30 at midseason, put up another phenomenal numbers last year, scoring 13 goals and a career-high 70 points. Kuznetsov had a slight down year, but could be a candidate for a big bounce-back season. Oshie continues to put up solid numbers, 25 goals last season, but will turn 33 during the season and will be 39 before his contract expires, which could go bad quickly. Wilson’s contract doesn’t look nearly as bad, especially after posting career highs in goals (22) and points (40).

Orlov saw his goal-scoring numbers drop, but he still has been a key figure on the team’s defense. Although he saw his ATOI drop by a minute in a half, the team still believes that Orlov is a top-pairing defender. The team hopes that Jensen might provide the same value at a much cheaper price. Jensen, acquired from Detroit and immediately extended for four years, gives Washington even more depth on the team’s blueline. He only averaged 17 minutes in his 20 games with Washington, but he could return to the 20 minutes he was averaging when he was with the Red Wings.

Washington has started to put more effort into bringing in cheaper players, who they think can contribute to the team long-term such as Hagelin and Panik, who were both locked up as the team believes both can contribute as middle-six players for a number of years.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Wilson
Worst Value: Oshie

Looking Ahead

The Capitals are a team that have made it clear years ago that they were going for it. They succeeded finally, winning a Stanley Cup after the 2017-18 season. However, they looked just as formidable last year, despite a first-round exit in a grueling seven-game series against the Carolina Hurricanes. However, expectations continue to be high that this veteran laden club can continue to be one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. With a number of their players already in their 30’s, the question will end up being how long can they keep this up? The team is capped out and will be for years to come, so they could lose quite a bit of talent over the next few years and with one of the weakest group of prospects in the league, the team will have to be quite clever with the cap to keep the team relevant.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Central Notes: Ehlers, Josi, Johns

August 31, 2019 at 5:01 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

The Winnipeg Jets know what they have in Nikolaj Ehlers. The 23-year-old forward is a speedster, who is known to score goals in bunches and is considered to be a key piece to the Jets’ top-six. Yet, at the same time, there are equally just as many questions as in 21 career playoff games, he has zero goals and has also proven to be wildly inconsistent. There has been plenty of talk that the Jets, struggling with salary cap issues as many of their young players have received or are soon expected to receive big contracts, might be willing to move their young Danish forward.

However, the Winnipeg Sun’s Scott Billeck writes that moving the forward would likely be a major mistake for a franchise who still needs as many scoring forwards as the can get. The scribe looks at Ehlers’ A3Z statistics, which refers to his play in all three zones and compares him to Edmonton’s Connor McDavid. While pointing out that you can’t compare the two as overall players, Ehlers’s A3Z statistics suggest that he is a dominant player in comparison to McDavid in certain situations. McDavid is in the 99 percentile in shots contributed over 60 minutes, while Ehlers finds himself in the 97th percentile. Ehlers shot-assist ratio over 60 minutes suggest he’s in the 91st percentile in the league, suggesting he could take his game up a notch soon.

Therefore trading Ehlers to ease some of the team’s cap concerns or replace him with a defender, could quickly become a mistake.

Greg Hardwig of the Naples Daily News reports that Nashville Predators defenseman Roman Josi, who is entering the final year of his contract and will be a highly sought after unrestricted free agent next summer, reiterated Friday that he wants to remain with the Predators. “I never made it secret that I’d like to stay in Nashville,” said Josi. “I think we’re talking a little bit over the summer, and I’ll let my agent deal with that and just focus on getting ready for the season.” Josi could see an even bigger role this season after the team traded P.K. Subban to New Jersey, giving more responsibility to the team’s top three blueliners, Ryan Ellis, Mattias Ekholm and Josi.
The Dallas Stars have made a number of big additions this summer with many suggesting the Stars could be Stanley Cup contenders this season. However, the team has one unknown that could have a significant effect on the team’s future in Stephen Johns. The 27-year-old looked like he was developing into a solid blueliner after the 2017-18 season, but instead missed the entire season last year due to post-traumatic headaches. Now cleared, Dallas Morning News’ Matthew DeFranks wonders whether he can step in immediately as the team’s No. 4 defenseman this season. If Johns can prove he’s ready to go, the 6-foot-4, 225 pound blueliner might be the perfect complement to 20-year-old Miro Heiskanen.

Bruins Notes: McAvoy, Krug, Bergeron

August 31, 2019 at 3:32 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 8 Comments

The Boston Bruins may be in one of the toughest salary cap situation of all teams as the team still has to sign one of their top defensemen to a contract in Charlie McAvoy. The team might have some serious issues in signing him, however, who doesn’t have the offer sheet capability that most of the other RFA’s remaining have and has even less negotiating power than most of the others. Unfortunately, that could be an issue for the Bruins.

In fact, NHL Tonight’s Brian Lawton suggests that the Bruins have a number of issues working against them when it comes to signing McAvoy. Perhaps most challenging is the fact that they have just $7.29MM in projected cap space remaining (although with certain roster moves, that could improve to about $9MM) and McAvoy could be asking for quite a bit after another impressive season. Despite injuries being an issue for a second straight season, he still put up seven goals and 28 points in 54 games and looks to be developing into a potential No. 1 defenseman. While it does sound like there is money to work out a deal, the Bruins also have RFA defenseman Brandon Carlo waiting on a new deal as well, who won’t be cheap either. With so little cap space, Boston is going to be forced to make a roster move to fit both into their salary cap and it’s likely that the team might have to settle for a bridge deal with McAvoy due to their salary cap issues.

Lawton also point out that Boston has a number of moving parts as the team may be forced to place some of their veterans on LTIR when the season starts as it’s already been reported that Kevan Miller doesn’t expect to be ready for the start of the season, while there is also talk that David Backes might start the season on LTIR as well, which could free up some money.

NBC Sports’ Joe Haggerty debunks the rumor that the Bruins have been shopping defensman Torey Krug this summer. In speaking to President Cam Neely, Haggerty reports the team isn’t ready to unload the 28-year-old defenseman who will hit unrestricted free agency next season and could conceivably walk away after this year. It makes sense, however, that rumors persist about a potential trade when the team hasn’t locked him up and with the team’s salary cap issues. However, Neely made it quite clear that Krug is staying. “It’s the delicate balance you have,” Neely said. “You’ll have players on expiring contracts and we talk internally about what we’re going to do and how it’s all going to pan out. With Torey he’s one of the top PP defensemen in the league and our power play has been pretty damn good, and has won a lot of games for us. [Matt] Grzelcyk is coming along, but I don’t know if he sees the ice the way that Torey does. And Charlie just hasn’t shown that he’s a No. 1 power-play defenseman just yet.”
The Athletic’s Fluto Shinzawa (subscription required) writes that Boston should also pick up a significant advantage next season due to one of the new rule changes this offseason. The board of governors, general managers and competition agreed to allow teams to choose what side teams want to face off on in the shorthanded zone during power plays. That should give Boston a significant advantage as center Patrice Bergeron is a dominant faceoff specialist on the right-side of the ice, which should give Boston even more scoring opportunities next year. Bergeron took 62 percent of the team’s power play faceoffs.

2007 NHL Draft Take Two: Thirteenth Overall Pick

August 31, 2019 at 1:55 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 3 Comments

Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.” Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended. For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

We’re looking back at the 2007 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now. Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?

Here are the results of the redraft so far, with their original draft position in parentheses:

1st Overall: Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks (1)
2nd Overall: Jamie Benn, Philadelphia Flyers (129)
3rd Overall: P.K. Subban, Phoenix Coyotes (43)
4th Overall: Logan Couture, Los Angeles Kings (9)
5th Overall: Max Pacioretty, Washington Capitals (22)
6th Overall: Jakub Voracek, Edmonton Oilers (7)
7th Overall: Ryan McDonagh, Columbus Blue Jackets (12)
8th Overall: James van Riemsdyk, Boston Bruins (2)
9th Overall: Wayne Simmonds, San Jose Sharks (61)
10th Overall: Kevin Shattenkirk, Florida Panthers (14)
11th Overall: Jake Muzzin, Carolina Hurricanes (141)
12th Overall: Kyle Turris, Montreal Canadiens (3)

With so many players jumping into the top-ten that weren’t originally selected there, some players had to drop and Turris is one of them as he slips down nine spots. Interestingly enough, he goes to a Montreal team that has spent the better part of the last decade looking for center help so this would have been a good fit for them.

Unfortunately for the Coyotes who originally drafted him, he wasn’t a great fit with them. After being a one-and-done player at Notre Dame, he was pencilled in as a regular for 2008-09. He spent most of the season in Phoenix but had a limited impact. As a result, Turris spent most of the following season in the minors which is where things started to go off the rails.

While he rebounded with 25 points in 65 games the following year, it was evident that things weren’t particularly rosy between the two sides. Turris ultimately held out at the start of 2011-12 in the hopes of forcing a trade. He ultimately signed in late November but before long, he got his wish and was on his way to Ottawa for defenseman David Rundblad (still considered a quality prospect at the time) and a second-rounder that eventually was flipped as part of a package to pick up Antoine Vermette.

Turris didn’t exactly light it up right away with the Senators as his first two seasons with the team saw him pick up 29 points each time. However, the switch flipped in time for the 2013-14 campaign which saw him basically double his output from the previous year, finally establishing himself as a legitimate top-six center in the process. He was able to maintain that for several more seasons before being part of the Matt Duchene three-way trade back in 2017, a swap that didn’t go as well for Ottawa as they’d have liked.

The move ultimately landed Turris with Nashville along with a freshly-signed six-year, $36MM contract extension that still has five years left on it. His first season with the Predators wasn’t too bad but the veteran struggled last season and had just seven goals in 55 games. In response, the Predators went out and signed a replacement for him in the top six this summer and it just so happened to be the player he had been traded for in Duchene. Turris may have lots of job security but as things stand, he’s going to be back in the limited role that he struggled with at the beginning of his career.

We now turn our focus to the team with the 13th pick in the draft, the St. Louis Blues. They used that pick on Lars Eller, a Danish center developing in Sweden in the Frolunda system. They didn’t have him for very long though as just three years later, he was traded to Montreal in exchange for goaltender Jaroslav Halak.

Eller spent six seasons with the Canadiens where he showed flashes of offensive upside but ultimately was only able to produce in a limited capacity, ranging from 26-30 points over his final five seasons with the team. Back at the 2016 draft, he was shipped to Washington for a pair of second-round picks.

Since then, Eller has been a bit more productive offensively while filling an important spot on the third line. The team was pleased enough with him that they gave him a five-year, $17.5MM extension back in 2018, a deal that has four years remaining on it.

While Eller has nearly 700 career NHL games under his belt (eighth-most amongst players from this draft class) which is a solid return on a pick at this stage of the first round, it’s hard not to wonder what if when it comes to St. Louis. San Jose initially acquired this pick from Toronto at the draft for goalie Vesa Toskala and winger Mark Bell, then used it in a trade to move up to the number nine slot where St. Louis originally sat. The Sharks wound up with Logan Couture and looking back in hindsight, the Blues would probably like a do-over on that one. Couture is obviously off the board now but Eller is still available. Is he the right fit for them at this spot in the redraft?

With the thirteenth pick of the 2007 NHL Entry Draft, who should the St. Louis Blues select? Cast your vote below!

Mobile users, click here to vote.

*Tragically, 17th overall pick Alexei Cherepanov died at the age of 19 and would never get a chance to suit up in the NHL. He has not been included in this vote.

PHR Mailbag: RFAs, Cap Projections, Capitals, Wild, Pettersson

August 31, 2019 at 12:46 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the slow-moving RFA market, future salary cap projections, Washington’s key pending unrestricted free agents, Minnesota’s top-paid veterans, and Marcus Pettersson’s situation in Pittsburgh. If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next week’s edition.

random comment guy: Why haven’t other teams made offers to the remaining RFAs? I understand there are draft picks connected to them but this standoff looks like it will playing into the season.

Just because no other offer sheets have been signed beyond Montreal’s attempt for Sebastian Aho doesn’t mean that there haven’t been other attempts. There were reports at the beginning of July that the Canadiens wanted to explore an offer sheet for Tampa Bay’s Brayden Point but were rebuffed. Teams can try to poach an RFA all they want but the player still has to agree to a deal. Lots of times, the player doesn’t want to.

Draft pick compensation certainly has to play a role as well. At the rate that Montreal’s offer sheet for Aho was, teams are going to match on any of the forwards. They’d probably match at the next tier as well (two first-rounders plus a second and a third) without much hesitancy. So what’s the point of trying? That was the common response to the Aho offer sheet. Now we’re talking four first-round picks to get the player plus having to sign them to what would be an above-market deal. That’s a lot to give up no matter how talented the player is.

If I’m a team that wants to submit an offer sheet, I’m taking a look at the Rangers right now. They don’t appear to be willing to move off their one-year qualifying offers for Brendan Lemieux and Anthony DeAngelo as that’s basically all they can afford. Both players have some upside still and an offer at the top of the third-round pick range (just over $2.1MM) could give them some pause with their cap situation. If a team wanted to go into the next tier, there’s a good chance they could get the player.

With the current thresholds, the bottom of the market is where the best potential for a realistic offer sheet is. As for the top players, there’s a very good chance that several of these will drag into the season although I expect to see a few deals get done over the next couple of weeks.

M34: Multi-part question:

What is your best guess at the new cap number when the TV deal kicks in, and when is that supposed to happen?

When that happens, what tier of players benefit most; the star players, the middle six type guy’s, or do teams start using more money to add better quality depth guy’s? Or do you think it’s somewhat even across the board?

I don’t share the same enthusiasm as some when it comes to a big boost in the cap when the new US TV deal gets done. There’s demand for live content but with a lot of bloated contracts on the books for other sports, it’s not going to be a bidding war. Networks will be a little thriftier. Could they double the current $200MM per year revenue? Sure, that’s possible. But that’s only roughly a $3MM increase to the cap (half of the increase divided by 32 teams). I’d have a hard time thinking the league will get a lot more than that though as the ratings just aren’t that strong. The new contract (or contracts if they split it between more than one network) isn’t going to be shattering any benchmarks like the deal in Canada did.

Let’s say they do slightly better than double it. That would amount to a $3.5MM to $4MM increase in the cap. Assuming there’s a bit of growth in revenues as well, that could push an increase to $5MM. At that level, the NHLPA would probably hold off on exercising its inflator to help claw back escrow payments. A $5MM jump isn’t that significant in the grand scheme of things; it’s happened several times before already.

As for who benefits, there could be a small boost for the mid-tier players depending on who is still unsigned at that point. Teams will pay up for whoever’s out there and if it’s middle-six players, then that group will get a nice bonus for a year. However, the long-term eventuality is that the top players will be the main benefactors, just as they have been lately. The second line winger isn’t getting much more now than they were a few years ago in free agency but salaries for top liners have gone up quicker. That trend should continue after the TV deal is signed.

CapsFan34: Do Nicklas Backstrom or Braden Holtby get signed or do they hit the free agent market and what do you think their contracts would look like? Seems to me that the comparable for Backy is the Joe Thornton deal while Holtby is looking at a Bobrovsky style deal.

One thing is for sure – the Capitals can’t afford both of them. They already have over $62MM in commitments for 2020-21 so new deals for them would push them over $80MM with several roster spots to be filled. I expect that Backstrom will ultimately stick around while Holtby moves on.

As for what the contracts would look like, let’s start with Backstrom. He’s a pretty safe bet to reach the 70-point mark having got there for six straight seasons since the lockout-shortened campaign (where he averaged a point per game). He’s a reliable defensive player and isn’t a liability at the faceoff dot. He’ll also be 32 next summer so while a max-term contract is off the table, a five or six-year deal is possible if not probable. (That takes Thornton off the table as a comparable as has always gone with shorter-term pacts.) His current AAV is $6.7MM and he should beat that given the relative scarcity of impact centers that are slated to become UFAs. I wouldn’t expect it go higher than $8MM though on a long-term pact as there will inevitably be some front-loading in place with one or two of those years being tacked on to try to lower the AAV.

Holtby’s comparable is a little more direct in Sergei Bobrovsky’s seven-year, $70MM pact as you suggested. The two have had numbers that are pretty close and like Bobrovsky, Holtby will be the undisputed top netminder available a year from now. If the Capitals believe that Ilya Samsonov is their goalie of the future, it wouldn’t be wise to even entertain the idea of signing Holtby for that long. Add or subtract a few hundred thousand to Bobrovsky’s $10MM AAV and that’s why Holtby’s next deal should look like with a new team.

jb10000lakes: With the Wild kind of stuck in no man’s land, will Parise (or Suter) agree to be traded to a contender; and if so, how much salary will the Wild need to eat? On a side note, is there any chance Zuccarello hasn’t signed that contract yet?

I touched on a similar question a few months ago in a previous mailbag so I won’t go into too much detail here. If new GM Bill Guerin wanted to trade Ryan Suter, he could do so easily without needing to retain salary and get good value back. Yes, the last couple of years could be rough but he’s still a legitimate top-pairing defenseman and those don’t come available very often. The acquiring team would only have to have him for three years before the potential for salary cap recapture was basically mitigated as well and he easily has three years left (and then the really low salary years begin). As for Parise, his injury history makes him a tougher sell even if he wanted to be moved. I don’t think there’s a point where it would be justifiable to move him – they’d either have to retain so much of his contract (and the higher risk for cap recapture given the front-loaded contract) or take so little in return that they’d be better off just keeping him.

When it comes to Mats Zuccarello, I don’t quite get the negativity on his contract. Is it too much term? Sure, but the same can be said for most UFA deals. $6MM for a 50-point winger isn’t a bargain but it’s not a drastic overpayment either. I know the contract goes against the grain for a team that probably needs to rebuild but they should be able to get out of it via trade (assuming Zuccarello was to waive his no-move clause) without too much concern.

Rayno15: Are you surprised the Pens haven’t made a move to make room to get Pettersson back here? How do you see them making it happen?

Teams only have to be cap-compliant at the start of the season which is still more than a month away so no, I’m not surprised a trade hasn’t happened. I expect to see a fair bit of movement over the next few weeks as some of the RFAs start to sign and in doing so, some of the remaining UFAs will as well. That will give teams more certainty as to what they can or can’t do on the trade market and open up the windows for teams like Pittsburgh to make their required cap cuts.

Plan A would be to trade a veteran player like Bryan Rust, Erik Gudbranson, Jack Johnson, or even Nick Bjugstad who didn’t fit in all that great after being acquired. Even if they had to take a player back to offset some of the money, that would free up enough room to re-sign Pettersson and even potentially leave a big of wiggle room for in-season moves. That will take a bit of time to do depending on the rest of the market.

Plan B may be to just get creative with the waiver wire. Chad Ruhwedel and Zach Trotman are capable depth options but both should clear waivers (or if they didn’t, they wouldn’t be big losses). There’s $1.4MM right there. Johnson would clear waivers because of his contract which would free up another $1.075MM in cap room. It might take waiting until the season to start with this approach but they’d have enough space to re-sign Pettersson at that point and then they could shuffle the veterans back and forth between the minors to bank a bit of cap space in the early going of the season and take full advantage of having their AHL team nearby. It’d be a tough pill to swallow for Johnson but it might just work.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Kings Notes: Vilardi, Hutton, Hults, Toffoli

August 31, 2019 at 11:12 am CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Kings GM Rob Blake met with reporters on Friday to discuss quite a few things about the team with their rookie tournament and training camp on the horizon. Here is a listing of some of the things that were discussed (all Twitter links via LA Kings Insider’s Jon Rosen unless otherwise noted).

2017 first-round pick Gabriel Vilardi is progressing in his rehab but will not be on the ice at training camp. He played in just four games with AHL Ontario last season before being shut down due to recurring back injuries. Vilardi’s entry-level contract has slid the last two years but will now begin no matter what in 2019-20. Blake allowed for a small amount of optimism, stating that the center is “farther along in rehab than any part in last 12 months”.
Blake acknowledged that they took a look at UFA defenseman Ben Hutton early on in free agency but downplayed the possibility that they will sign him. Rosen adds that the look wasn’t a particularly extensive one. Hutton remains one of the more intriguing UFAs left as he’s coming off a decent season with Vancouver that saw him collect 20 points in 69 games while averaging over 22 minutes a night. However, salary arbitration concerns resulted in the Canucks non-tendering him back in June.
One defenseman that they do intend to sign is defenseman Cole Hults. He was a fifth-round pick (134th overall) of the team back in 2017 and is coming off a strong season at Penn State with 28 points in 39 games. Los Angeles will wait for him to complete his junior year though. They’ve shown a willingness to burn the first year of an entry-level deal quickly on college players in the past and Hults looks like a candidate for that to happen again.
Winger Tyler Toffoli was in trade speculation at the deadline last season but ultimately stayed put. He’s now entering the final year of his contract which means contract extension talks can begin. Blake indicated (via Dennis Bernstein of The Fourth Period) that he’s in no rush to discuss a new deal with the 27-year-old, who had just 13 goals in 82 games last season and that he expects that the situation will work itself out later in the year.

RFA Profile: Kyle Connor

August 31, 2019 at 9:47 am CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

While Patrik Laine has drawn the most attention of Winnipeg’s prominent remaining restricted free agents, Kyle Connor certainly deserves consideration for being included in the second class of players still in need of a new contract beyond the top RFAs like Mitch Marner and Mikko Rantanen. Here is a look at his situation.

Following a strong 2017-18 campaign, Connor improved his numbers offensively while locking down a full-time spot on the top line alongside Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler. That resulted in a big jump in average ice time to over 19 minutes a night. As it turns out, he wound up out-producing Laine, something that undoubtedly has been brought up in talks already.

One of the things that makes his deal a bit trickier than some of the others though is the shorter track record of NHL success. Connor spent the bulk of his first professional season in the minors with his second year ultimately being his rookie season. As a result, he has basically 50-60 games less experience than a lot of his counterparts. That shouldn’t significantly hurt his value but it won’t help things either as instead of having three years of NHL success, he basically only has two.

Statistics

2018-19: 82 GP, 34-32-66, -7, 18 PIMS, 227 shots, 19:15 ATOI
Career: 178 GP, 67-61-128, -6, 38 PIMS, 443 shots, 17:28 ATOI

Comparables

William Nylander (Toronto): Like Connor, Nylander really only had two full NHL seasons under his belt with most of his first year being spent in the minors. His overall point total at the end of his entry-level deal was pretty close to Connor’s although the Jets winger was more productive in the goal department.

Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 20-41-61, +20, 10 PIMS, 184 shots, 16:41 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 185 GP, 48-87-135, +18, 46 PIMS, 432 shots, 16:21 ATOI

Contract: Six years, $45MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 8.76% (Years two through six)
Current Equivalent: Six years, $ 42.84MM ($7.14MM AAV)

Jake Guentzel (Pittsburgh) – His platform year had some similarities to Connor in that he moved up to the front line and set career highs across the board. He also had a shortened rookie campaign although he managed to play half a season in that rookie year.

Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 40-36-76, +13, 26 PIMS, 227 shots, 19:21 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 204 GP, 78-79-157, +11, 78 PIMS, 479 shots, 17:31 ATOI

Contract: Five years, $30MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 7.55%
Current Equivalent: Five years, $30.766MM ($6.15MM AAV)

Johnny Gaudreau (Calgary): While his platform year was better than Connor’s, he only had one NHL game in his first year (which was primarily spent in college) so the shorter track record factor came into effect here. Of course, he has since blossomed into one of the top scorers in the league, something that Winnipeg won’t be expecting from their winger.

Platform Year Stats: 79 GP, 30-48-78, +4, 20 PIMS, 217 shots, 19:56 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 160 GP, 55-88-143, +16, 34 PIMS, 385 shots, 18:48 ATOI

Contract: Six years, $40.5MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 9.25%
Current Equivalent: Six years, $45.232MM ($7.539MM AAV)

Brock Boeser (Vancouver): While many are waiting for Marner to set the market, Boeser and Connor could very well be waiting on each other. Like everyone else in this set, the rookie year was shortened (just nine games) while Boeser cracked the 19-minute a night mark last season.

Platform Year Stats: 69 GP, 26-30-56, -2, 22 PIMS, 209 shots, 19:10 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 140 GP, 59-57-116, -7, 38 PIMS, 413 shots, 18:14 ATOI

Contract: Currently unsigned

Projected Contract

While there has been some speculation that Laine could wind up with a bridge contract, there seems to be nothing of the sort for Connor. Both sides want to get a long-term deal done and earlier this month, he indicated his desire to get something done before the start of training camp.

In terms of the comparables, Nylander’s contract probably serves as the best one with something coming in the high $6MM to low $7MM range on a six-year deal. That would buy out a couple of UFA years while giving the Jets some flexibility on handling a new contract for Laine while filling out the rest of their roster as there are some holes still to be filled. As far as the remaining RFAs go, Connor’s deal should be one of the easier ones to get done.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Pittsburgh Penguins

August 30, 2019 at 8:52 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment